Periodic variation of Oort Cloud flux and cometary impacts on the Earth and Jupiter

Time variation in impact probability is studied by assuming that the periodic flux of the Oort Cloud comets within 15 au arises from the motion of the Sun with respect to the Galactic mid-plane. The periodic flux clearly shows up in the impact rate of the captured Oort Cloud cometary population, with a phase shift caused by the orbital evolution. Depending on the assumed flux of comets and the size distribution of comets, the impact rate of the Oort Cloud comets of 1 km in diameter or greater is from 5 to 700 impacts Myr⁻¹ on the Earth and from 0.5 to 70 impacts per 1000 yr on Jupiter. The relative fractions of impacts are 0.09, 0.11, 0.26 and 0.54 for long-period comets, Halley type comets, Jupiter family comets and near-Earth objects, respectively. For Jupiter, the corresponding fractions in the first three categories are 0.18, 0.31 and 0.51. If we consider physical fading of comet activity that is compatible with the observations, then the impact rates of active comets are two orders of magnitude smaller than the total impact rates by all kinds of comets and cometary asteroids of size 1 km or greater.     

The effect of non-gravitational forces on the median inclination of short-period comets

The numbered Jupiter family comets (orbital periods   P < 20 yr  ) have a median orbital inclination of about     . In this paper, we integrate the orbits of these comets into the future, under the influence of both typical non-gravitational forces and planetary perturbation, using a Bulirsch–Stoer integrator. In the case where non-gravitational forces were not acting, the median inclination of those comets that remained on   P < 20 yr  orbits increased at the rate of  (1.92 ± 0.12) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  for the first 3600 yr of the integration. During this time the population of the original family decreases, such that the half-life is about 13 200 ± 800 yr. The introduction of non-gravitational forces slows down the rate of increase in inclination to a value of around  (1.23 ± 0.16) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  . This rate of increase in inclination was found to be only weakly dependent on the non-gravitational parameters used during the integration. After a few thousand years, the rate of change in inclination decreases, and after 20 000 yr the inclinations of those initial Jupiter family members that still have orbits with   P < 20 yr  become constant at about     , independent of whether non-gravitational forces are acting or not. The presently known Jupiter family of comets is losing members at the rate of one in every 67 yr. To maintain the family in equilibrium, Jupiter has to capture comets at a similar rate, and these captured comets have to be of low inclination to compensate for the pumping up of inclinations by gravitational perturbation.     

Orbits of short period comets captured from the Oort cloud

Oort cloud comets occasionally obtain orbits which take them through the planetary region. The perturbations by the planets are likely to change the orbit of the comet. We model this process by using a Monte Carlo method and cross sections for orbital changes, i.e. changes in energy, inclination and perihelion distance, in a single planet-comet encounter. The influence of all major planets is considered. We study the distributions of orbital parameters of observable comets, i.e. those which have perihelion distance smaller than a given value. We find that enough comets are captured from the Oort cloud in order to explain the present populations of short period comets. The median value of cos i for the Jupiter family is 0.985 while it is 0.27 for the Halley types. The results may explain the orbital features of short period comets, assuming that the active lifetime of a comet is not much greater than 400 orbital revolutions.     

Orbits of short period comets captured from the Oort cloud

Oort cloud comets occasionally obtain orbits which take them through the planetary region. The perturbations by the planets are likely to change the orbit of the comet. We model this process by using a Monte Carlo method and cross sections for orbital changes, i.e. changes in energy, inclination and perihelion distance, in a single planet-comet encounter. The influence of all major planets is considered. We study the distributions of orbital parameters of observable comets, i.e. those which have perihelion distance smaller than a given value. We find that enough comets are captured from the Oort cloud in order to explain the present populations of short period comets. The median value of cos i for the Jupiter family is 0.985 while it is 0.27 for the Halley types. The results may explain the orbital features of short period comets, assuming that the active lifetime of a comet is not much greater than 400 orbital revolutions.     

Origin of oort cloud comets in the interstellar space

Comets must form a major part of the interstellar medium. The solar system provides a flux of comets into the interstellar space and there is no reason to suspect that many other stars and their surrounding cometary systems would not make a similar contribution. Occasionally interstellar comets must pass through the inner solar system, but Whipple (1975) considers it unlikely that such a comet is among the known cases of apparently hyperbolic comets. Even so the upper limit for the density of unobserved interstellar comets is relatively high.In addition, we must consider the possibility that comets are a genuine component of interstellar medium, and that the Oort Cloud is merely a captured part of it (McCrea, 1975). Here we review various dynamical possibilities of two-way exchange of comet populations between the Solar System and the interstellar medium. We describe ways in which a traditional Oort Cloud (Oort, 1950) could be captured from the interstellar medium. However, we note that the so called Kuiper belt (Kuiper, 1951) of comets cannot arise through this process. Therefore we have to ask how necessary the concept of the yet unobserved Kuiper belt is for the theory of short period comets.There has been considerable debate about the question whether short period comets can be understood as a captured population of the Oort Cloud of comets or whether an additional source has to be postulated. The problem is made difficult by the long integration times of comet orbits through the age of the Solar System. It would be better to have an accurate treatment of comet-planet encounters in a statistical sense, in the form of cross sections, and to carry out Monte Carlo studies. Here we describe the plan of action and initial results of the work to derive cross sections by carrying out large numbers of comet — planet encounters and by deriving approximate analytic expressions for them. Initially comets follow parabolic orbits of arbitrary inclination and perihelion distance; cross sections are derived for obtaining orbits of given energy and inclination after the encounter. The results are used in subsequent work to make evolutionary models of the comet population.     

From the Oort cloud to observable short-period comets – I. The initial stage of cometary capture

We investigate the first stage of the dynamical evolution of Oort cloud comets entering the planetary region for the first time. To this purpose, we integrate numerically the motions of a large number of fictitious comets pertaining to two samples, both with perihelion distances up to 5.7 au and random inclinations; the first sample is composed of comets whose orbits have at least one node close to 5.2 au, while the second is not subject to this constraint. We examine the orbits when the comets come to aphelion after their first perihelion passage within the planetary region, and find that there is a clear statistical dependence of the energy perturbations on the Tisserand parameter. There appear to be two main processes, of comparable importance, governing the shortening of semimajor axes to values of less than 1000 au, i.e. planetary close encounters, especially with Jupiter, and indirect perturbations due to the shifting of the motion from barycentric to heliocentric and back; the former process mostly affects comets crossing the ecliptic at about 5.2 au, or on low-inclination orbits, while the latter mostly affects comets of small perihelion distance. This last result may help to understand the relative paucity of Halley-type comets with perihelion distances larger than about 1.5 au.     

A possible comet and asteroid link in the formation of comets

The origin of comets is reassessed in the light of IRAS discoveries of particles in the asteroid belt and much cooler “cirrus” clouds at large heliocentric distances. The component of the asteroid particles with ratios of radiation pressure to gravitational forces near one-half will be forced into highly eccentric orbits, with heliocentric distances in the outer Solar System region of the hypothesized Oort Cloud. While slowly passing near their aphelia these particles could acquire a mantle of interstellar frost. It is proposed that larger asteroidal bodies gravitationally perturbed to similar distances would serve as centers for gravitational collation so that upon their return to the inner Solar System they will have a structure satisfying the observational requirements of Whipple's dirty snowball model. This model of origin would explain the established connections to meteor streams and fireballs, the possible connection to carbonaceous chondrites, and can be tested in several ways. The model would lead to the conclusion that comets are a renewable resource and eliminates the need for the 10¹⁰-fold multiplication between the number of observed and hypothesized comets necessary for the Oort Cloud model.     

Long-term evolution of Oort Cloud comets: methods and comparisons

Two long-term simulation methods for cometary orbits, a Monte Carlo method and a direct integration method, are compared with each other. The comparison is done in seven inclination and perihelion distance intervals, and shows differences in dynamical lifetime and capture probabilities for the following main reasons. We use a finite energy step approximation in the Monte Carlo method and the method considers only close approaches with the planets. The differences can be taken into account statistically and it is possible to calculate the correction factors for the capture probability and dynamical lifetime in the Monte Carlo method. Both corrections depend on the inclination and on the value of the minimum energy step. The capture probabilities of the short-period comets originating in the Oort Cloud are calculated by the corrected Monte Carlo method and compared with published results.     

Capture of comets during the evolution of a star cluster and the origin of the Oort Cloud

It is generally assumed that the Solar System is surrounded by a swarm of comets, the so-called Oort Cloud, which contains approximately 10¹¹ members. The observed comets belong to a small subsection of the Cloud, and they have very elongated orbits. The origin of the Cloud is presently unclear. Here we consider the possibility that the comets were born in a star cluster together with the Sun. We follow the evolution of the star cluster with its embedded swarm of comets and calculate the rate at which stars accumulate stable comet companions. We conclude that if the Oort Cloud of comets was born in this process, then the present day density of comets in interstellar space has to be high, and that comets make a significant contribution to the overall mass density of the Galaxy.     

Coupling dynamical and collisional evolution of small bodies: II. Forming the Kuiper belt, the Scattered Disk and the Oort Cloud

The Oort Cloud, the Kuiper belt and the Scattered Disk are dynamically distinct populations of small bodies evolving in the outer regions of the Solar System. Whereas their collisional activity is now quiet, gravitational interactions with giant planets may have shaped these populations both dynamically and collisionally during their formation. Using a hybrid approach [Charnoz, S., Morbidelli, A., 2003. Icarus 166, 141-166], the present paper tries to couple the primordial collisional and dynamical evolution of these three populations in a self-consistent way. A critical parameter is the primordial size-distribution. We show that the initial planetesimal size distribution that allows an effective mass depletion of the Kuiper belt by collisional grinding, would decimate also the population of comet-size bodies that end in the Oort Cloud and, in particular, in the Scattered Disk. As a consequence, the Oort Cloud and the Scattered Disk would be too anemic, by a factor 20 to 100, relative to the estimates achieved from the observation of the fluxes of long period and Jupiter family comets, respectively. For these two reservoirs to have a sufficient number of comets, the initial size distribution in the planetesimal disk had to be such that the mass depletion by collisional erosion of the Kuiper belt was negligible. Consequently the current mass deficit of the Kuiper belt needs to be explained by dynamical mechanisms.     

Constraints on the Formation Regions of Comets from their D:H Ratios

Studies of the D:H ratio in H₂O within the Solar nebula provide a relationship between the degree of enrichment of deuterium and the distance from the young Sun. In the context of cometary formation, such models suggest that comets which formed in different regions of the Solar nebula should have measurably different D:H ratios. We aim to illustrate how the observed comets can give information about the formation regions of the reservoirs in which they originated. After a discussion of the current understanding of the regions in which comets formed, simple models of plausible formation regions for two different cometary reservoirs (the Edgeworth–Kuiper belt and the Oort Cloud) are convolved with a deuterium-enrichment profile for the pre-solar nebula. This allows us to illustrate how different formation regions for these objects can lead to great variations in the deuterium enrichment distributions that we would observe in comets today. We also provide an illustrative example of how variations in the population within a source region can modify the resulting observational profile. The convolution of a deuterium-enrichment profile with examples of proto-cometary populations gives a feel for how observations could be used to draw conclusions on the formation region of comets which are currently fed into the inner Solar system from at least two reservoirs. Such observations have, to date, been carried out on only three comets, but future work with instruments such as ALMA and Herschel should vastly improve the dataset, leading to a clearer consensus on the formation of the Oort cloud and Edgeworth–Kuiper belt.     

Temporary satellite capture of comets by Jupiter

This paper studies the dynamical evolution of 97 Jupiter-family comets over an 800-year time period. More than two hundred encounters with Jupiter are investigated, with the observed comets moving during a certain period of time in an elliptic jovicentric orbit. In most cases this is an ordinary temporary satellite capture of a comet in Everhart??s sense, not associated with a transition of the small body into Jupiter??s family of satellites. The phenomenon occurs outside the Hill sphere with comets with a high Tisserand constant relative to Jupiter; the comets?? orbits have a small inclination to the ecliptic plane. An analysis of 236 encounters has allowed the determination within the planar pair two-body problem of a region of orbits in the plane (a, e) whose semimajor axes and eccentricities contribute to the phenomenon under study. Comets with orbits belonging to this region experience a temporary satellite capture during some of their encounters; the jovicentric distance function has several minima; and the encounters are characterized by reversions of the line of apsides and some others features of their combination that are intrinsic to comets in this region. Therefore, this region is called a region of comets with specific features in their encounters with Jupiter. Twenty encounters (out of 236), whereby the comet enters an elliptic jovicentric orbit in the Hill sphere, are identified and investigated. The size and shape of the elliptic heliocentric orbits enabling this transition are determined. It is found that in 11 encounters the motion of small bodies in the Hill sphere has features the most important of which is multiple minima of the jovicentric distance function. The study of these 20 encounters has allowed the introduction of the concept of temporary gravitational capture of a small body into the Hill sphere. An analysis of variations in the Tisserand constant in these (20) encounters of the observable comets shows that their motion is unstable in Hill??s sense.     

The magnitude distribution, perihelion distribution and flux of long-period comets

The mass distribution and perihelion distribution of long-period comets are re-assessed. The mass distribution index is found to be 1.598±0.016 , indicating that the distribution is somewhat steeper than was obtained by previous analyses of an amalgam of all the available historical data. The number of long-period comets that have orbital perihelion distances, q , that fall in a specific q to q +d q range is found to be independent of q . It is also noted that the flux of long-period comets to the inner Solar system has remained constant throughout recorded history.
The number of long-period comets, , per 1-au interval of perihelion distance, per year, brighter than H , entering the inner Solar system is found to be given by log₁₀ =−2.607+0.359 H . It is therefore estimated that, for example, about 0.5, 30 and 2000 long-period comets with absolute magnitudes brighter than 0, 5 and 10 respectively pass the Sun on orbits with perihelion distances less than 2.0 au, every century.     

Injection of Oort Cloud comets: the fundamental role of stellar perturbations

We present Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud over the age of the Solar System, using an initial sample of one million test comets without any cloning. Our model includes perturbations due to the Galactic tide (radial and vertical) and passing stars. We present the first detailed analysis of the injection mechanism into observable orbits by comparing the complete model with separate models for tidal and stellar perturbations alone. We find that a fundamental role for injecting comets from the region outside the loss cone (perihelion distance q > 15 AU) into observable orbits (q < 5 AU) is played by stellar perturbations. These act in synergy with the tide such that the total injection rate is significantly larger than the sum of the two separate rates. This synergy is as important during comet showers as during quiescent periods and concerns comets with both small and large semi-major axes. We propose different dynamical mechanisms to explain the synergies in the inner and outer parts of the Oort Cloud. We find that the filling of the observable part of the loss cone under normal conditions in the present-day Solar System rises from <1% for a < 20 000 AU to about 100% for a ? 100 000 AU.     

Structure and evolution of the Jupiter family

Both physical and dynamical issues are important in order to judge the origin and evolution of the Jupiter family of short-period comets. The steady-state condition for maintaining this structure at its present size by captures from the classical Oort cloud is reviewed on the basis of recent results concerning the absolute number of Jupiter family comets as a function of perihelion distance as well as the coupled physical and dynamical evolutions that evidently occur. Like in most earlier investigations, a clear shortage is found in the classical Oort cloud source. The shortage seems, however, less extreme than sometimes assumed. Monte Carlo simulations are envisaged as a way to shed further light on the fate of Jupiter family comets.     

Viscous relaxation on comets

Three Jupiter family comets have now been observed by spacecraft with the surprising result that these comets lack unambiguous impact craters. Large-scale topography generally appears to be softened on these comets, although sharp topography is preserved at small scales. We find that viscous relaxation of water ice may explain these observations, given reasonable assumptions about ice grain size and temperatures attained in the interiors. We suggest that both the shapes and the cratering records of Jupiter family comets may be substantially modified and no longer reflect cometary formation processes or collisional evolution in the Kuiper Belt.     

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

Long-period (LP) comets, Halley-type (HT) comets, and even some comets of the Jupiter family, probably come from the Oort cloud, a huge reservoir of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system. Therefore, these comets become important probes to learn about the distant Oort cloud population. We review the fundamental dynamical properties of LP comets, and what is our current understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that bring these bodies from the distant Oort cloud region to the inner planetary region. Most new comets have original reciprocal semimajor axes in the range2 × 10^-5 < 1/a_orig < 5 × 10^-5AU^-1. Yet, this cannot be taken to represent the actual space distribution of Oort cloud comets, but only the region in the energy space in which external perturbers have the greatest efficiency in bringing comets to the inner planetary region. The flux of Oort cloud comets in the outer planetary region is found to be at least several tens times greater than the flux in the inner planetary region. The sharp decrease closer to the Sun is due to the powerful gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn that prevent most Oort cloud comets from reaching the Earth’s neighborhood (they act as a dynamical barrier). A small fraction of ～10^-2 Oort cloud comets become Halley type (orbital periods P < 200 yr), and some of them can reach short-period orbits with P < 20 yr. We analyze whether we can distinguish the latter, very ‘old” LP comets, from comets of the Jupier family coming from the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt.     

Implications of the observed distributions of very long period comet orbits

With allowance for galactic perturbations and observational error, the observed distributions of sizes an orientations of very long period comets are consistent with a uniform distribution of comets within the Oort Cloud.     

The capture of comets by Jupiter

The capture of comets with parabolic orbits by Jupiter is investigated. The influence of the gravitational force of the Sun on the cometary orbit during the passage of Jupiter's sphere of influence is taken into account. A comparison of the present results with previous calculations demonstrate the importance of the solar perturbations.It is also shown that captures of comets with parabolic orbits and repeated close passages to Jupiter cannot explain all of the observed cometary orbits found in the family of Jupiter.