Manifestations of motions of the Earth’s pole in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation rhythms

We analyze autocorrelations and power spectra of the time series of monthly mean data characterizing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in the years 1920–2013 and show that the rhythms of El Niño–Southern Oscillation can be interpreted as the responses of the climate system to the external quasi-periodic forcing generated by the motions of the Earth’s pole. We conclude that the ENSO phenomenon has no prediction limits.

     

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1–3 meteotsunamis with wave heights >0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March–April and June–August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods <6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods (1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2015–2016). Meteotsunamis were also active in 2005, a year characterized by exceptionally intense tropical cyclone activity. Meteotsunami incidence varied yearly and at periods between 2 and 5 years. Results from cross-wavelet analysis suggested that El Niño and meteotsunami activity are correlated at annual and longer-period bands.     

Rainfall over Oman and its teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation

The Sultanate of Oman is located in the south-eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula and covers the larger part of the southern coasts of the Arabian Peninsula in both arid and semi-arid environments except for the southern part which is swept by the monsoon affecting the Arabian Sea during the period from June to September. The summer rainfall over Oman shows year-to-year variability, and this is caused by oceanic and atmospheric influences. In the present study, we tried to explore the influence of El Niño on the rainfall over Oman using different data sets. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique employed to the zonal wind at 850 hPa for the 30-year period shows that the second and third modes of EOF are showing high variability over the Oman regions. The corresponding PCs were subjected to FFT analysis, and it showed a peak about 5–6 years. In addition to this, the zonal wind over the Oman regions is correlated with the global zonal wind and found a significant correlation (1 % significant level). It has already been proved that the wind and rainfall during summer monsoon is in phase. Moreover, the spectral analysis of rainfall at Masirah station and the Niño3.4 index show the similar mode of variability indicating a direct relationship. The correlation between rainfall and the Niño3.4 index is also showing a positive significant value, and therefore, it can be concluded that the El Niño in the Pacific favours rainfall over the Oman region.     

Relation between the variations in the global surface temperature,El Niño/La Niña phenomena,and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

We analyzed directed couplings between the variations in the global surface temperature and modes of the natural climatic variability: the El NiñoLa Niña (ENSO) quasi-periodical phenomena and the long-period Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation (AMO) based on the data for 1870–2014. According to the quantitative estimates based on the monthly and annual mean data, the initial data, and the 10-year mean remote data, the most pronounced impact of the ENSO on the global surface temperature and the AMO was found. A weaker bidirectional coupling between the global surface temperature and the AMO is also pronounced. The analysis using running windows revealed an alternating effect of the ENSO and AMO on the variations in the global surface temperature related to the AMO phases.     

Anomalous Winters in Regions of Northern Eurasia in Different Phases of the El Niño Phenomena

Doklady Earth Sciences - Estimates of the probability of warm and cold winters in regions of Northern Eurasia are obtained from data for eight decades, depending on El Niño phenomena. The...     

Interannual variations in length of day with respect to El Niño - Southern Oscillation’s impact (1962–2015)

The objective of research done in this study is to examine the variability of the length of day (LOD) and to investigate its correlation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, the LOD time series (1962–2015), from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), is investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique. The results show that the LOD time series is very complex and is composed of several components: the long-term trend explains 95.97% of the original series, the annual harmonic 1.76% and the semi-annual 1.35%. Considering sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3, Niño4 and Niño3.4 regions, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the residuals signal, that represents only 0.92% of the initial LOD series, indicate a significant correlation with ENSO occurred during 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and 1970–71, 1973–74, 1988–89, 2007–08, 2010–11 La Niña ones. This is a pertinent result that suggests that LOD variability is at least partly related to ENSO phenomena.     

The 1997 El Niño,Indonesian Forest Fires and the Malaysian Smoke Problem: A Deadly Combination of Natural and Man-Made Hazard

The El Niño of 1997–1998 produced the most intenseimpact on the conterminous U.S.A., generating a seriesof powerful rain and wind storms off the coast ofCalifornia in early February 1998. The 1997–1998 ElNiño also produced severe flooding and extensive mudslides along the west coast of South America andprolonged drought conditions in northeast Brazil. Onthe other (west) side of the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño produced the worst drought in 50 years overIndonesia and helped spread the ongoing forest fireson the island of Borneo to well over one millionacres. In this paper, the smoke and pollution problem overMalaysia will be analyzed in the context of ongoingIndonesian forest fires and the severity of the 1997El Niño – a deadly combination which led to the mosthazardous smoke problem over Malaysia duringAugust–September 1997. The severity of the smokepollution is documented using media reports andavailable API (air pollution index) values overselected cities in Malaysia. The role of the El Niñoand its evolution in enhancing the smoke pollutionover Malaysia is further discussed and suitably documented.Some of the mitigation measures presently beingadopted in Malaysia to combat the smoke pollution arebriefly discussed.     

Adventures in Data Analysis: The TAO Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño

Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.

     

About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.     

A diagnosis of rainfall over South America during 1997/98 El Niño and 1998/99 La Niña events: Comparison between TRMM PR and GPCP rainfall estimates

A comparison between TRMM PR rainfall estimates and rain gauge data from ANEEL and combined gauge/satellite data from GPCP over South America (SA) is made. In general, the annual and seasonal regional characteristics of rainfall over SA are qualitatively well reproduced by TRMM PR and GPCP. It is found that over most of SA GPCP exceeds TRMM PR rainfall. The largest positive differences between GPCP and TRMM PR data occur in the north SA, northwestern and central Amazonia. However, there are regions where GPCP rainfall is lower than TRMM PR, particularly in the Pacific coastal regions and in southern Brazil. We suggest that the cause for the positive differences GPCP minus TRMM PR rainfall are related to the fact that satellite observations based on infrared radiation and outgoing longwave radiance sensors overestimate convective rainfall in GPCP and the cause for the negative differences are due to the random errors in TRMM PR. Rainfall differences in the latter phases of the 1997/98 El Niño and 1998/99 La Niña are analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall anomalies are generally higher in GPCP than in TRMM PR, however, as in the mean annual case, there are regions where the rainfall in GPCP is lower than in TRMM PR. The higher positive (negative) differences between the rainfall anomalies in GPCP and TRMM PR, which occur in the central Amazonia (southern Brazil), are reduced (increased) in the El Niño event. This is due to the fact that during the El Niño episode the rainfall decreases in the central Amazonia and increases in the southern Brazil. Consequently, the overestimation of the convective rainfall by GPCP is reduced and the overestimation of the rainfall by TRMM PR is increased in these two regions, respectively.     

Differential modulation of eastern oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica</Emphasis>) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.     

Geochemical gradients in soil O-horizon samples from southern Norway: Natural or anthropogenic?

Forty soil O- and C-horizon samples were collected along a south-to-north transect extending inland for approximately 200 km from the southern tip of Norway. The elements As, Au, Bi, Cd, Cu, Ga, Ge, Hf, Hg, In, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, V, W, Zn and Zr all show a distinct decrease in concentration in soil O-horizons with increasing distance from the coast. The elements showing the strongest coastal enrichment, some by more than an order of magnitude compared to inland samples, are Au, Bi, As, Pb, Sb and Sn. Furthermore, the elements Cd (median O-/median C-horizon = 31), C, Sb, Ag, K, S, Ge (10), Hg, Pb, As, Bi, Sr (5), Se, Au, Ba, Na, Zn, P, Cu and Sn (2) are all strongly enriched in the O-horizon when compared to the underlying C-horizon. Lead isotope ratios, however, do not show any gradient with distance from the coast (declining Pb concentration). Along a 50 km topographically steep east–west transect in the centre of the survey area, far from the coast but crossing several vegetation zones, similar element enrichment patterns and concentration gradients can be observed in the O-horizon. Lead isotope ratios in the O-horizon correlate along both transects with pH and the C/N-ratio, both proxies for the quality of the organic material. Natural conditions in southern Norway, related to climate and vegetation, rather than long range atmospheric transport of air pollutants (LRT), cause the observed features.     

Methods of Three-part Quantitative Assessments of Undiscovered Mineral Resources: Examples from Victoria,Australia

Quantitative mineral resource assessments following the 3-part form rely on grade and tonnage models and probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits. Assessments completed in Victoria, Australia, indicate that undiscovered mineral resources can be effectively estimated using grade and tonnage sub-models constructed using only medium- and large-tonnage deposits. Numbers of undiscovered deposits can be estimated on the basis of expert judgement or entirely by statistical means. Appropriate mathematical aggregation of individual expert views, expressed at interactive expert workshops, provides robust estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits. Underestimation of uncertainty, which is common in expert judgement, can be compensated by the statistical modification of individual interval estimates. In this study, the linear opinion pool was used as a simple and robust method of mathematical aggregation of multiple expert estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits. A general regression model, which estimates numbers of undiscovered deposits based on the size of the geologically permissive area and the median deposit tonnage, provided results generally compatible with those based on expert judgement or local deposit density models.     

Evolution of a Cambrian active continental margin: The Delamerian–Lachlan connection in southeastern Australia from a zircon perspective

The Early Palaeozoic Ross–Delamerian orogenic belt is considered to have formed as an active margin facing the palaeo-Pacific Ocean with some island arc collisions, as in Tasmania (Australia) and Northern Victoria Land (Antarctica), followed by terminal deformation and cessation of active convergence. On the Cambrian eastern margin of Australia adjacent to the Delamerian Fold Belt, island arc and backarc basin crust was formed and is now preserved in the Lachlan Fold Belt and is consistent with a spatial link between the Delamerian and Lachlan orogens. The Delamerian–Lachlan connection is tested with new zircon data. Metamorphic zircons from a basic eclogite sample from the Franklin Metamorphic Complex in the Tyennan region of central Tasmania have rare earth element signatures showing that eclogite metamorphism occurred at ~ 510 Ma, consistent with island arc–passive margin collision during the Delamerian(− Tyennan) Orogeny. U–Pb ages of detrital zircons have been determined from two samples of Ordovician sandstones in the Lachlan Fold Belt at Melville Point (south coast of New South Wales) and the Howqua River (western Tabberabbera Zone of eastern Victoria). These rocks were chosen because they are the first major clastic influx at the base of the Ordovician ‘Bengal-fan’ scale turbidite pile. The samples show the same prominent peaks as previously found elsewhere (600–500 Ma Pacific-Gondwana and the 1300–1000 Ma Grenville–Gondwana signatures) reflecting supercontinent formation. We highlight the presence of ~ 500 Ma non-rounded, simple zircons indicating clastic input most likely from igneous rocks formed during the Delamerian and Ross Orogenies. We consider that the most probable source of the Ordovician turbidites was in East Antarctica adjacent to the Ross Orogen rather than reflecting long distance transport from the Transgondwanan Supermountain (i.e. East African Orogen). Together with other provenance indicators such as detrital mica ages, this is a confirmation of the Delamerian–Lachlan connection.     

Quartz-dominated Cenozoic gravels in southeastern Australia: where did all the quartz come from?

Upper Cenozoic fluvial gravels in the Canberra region are quartz-dominated (>95 vol% quartz), whereas modern bedload sediments contain less than 50 vol% quartz and a range of lithologies that broadly reflect the catchment geology. Potential reasons for the compositional difference include changes in catchment geology, sediment transport distance, post-depositional weathering and regolith history. Breakage of unsound clasts during transport does not explain the difference because sediment transport distances in the Cenozoic were similar to today. Post-depositional weathering of less resistant clasts is ruled out because the Cenozoic gravels are clast-supported and preserve original bedding. During much of the Cenozoic, rainfall was significantly higher than the present, and rainforest species were present in the local and regional vegetation. Weathering regimes were likely very different from today, and deep weathering of catchment lithologies may have favoured the supply of quartz-rich gravelly sediment to the river systems.     

Gold in vegetation and soil — three case studies from the goldfields of southern Western Australia

Biogeochemistry has not been widely used as an exploration technique for Au in Western Australia because (1) sampling of soils and other surficial materials have been reasonably effective in finding new mineral deposits, and (2) it has been difficult to identify a consistent and regionally typical vegetation sample type. The potential of the technique has been tested at three sites in the goldfields of southern Western Australia. Vegetation and soil were analysed for Au from the Bounty (Mt Hope), Panglo and Zuleika Au deposits in the southern Yilgarn Craton. Gold concentrations in vegetation were generally lower at Panglo and Zuleika compared with Bounty, and probably reflect the depth to mineralization which is considerably greater at Panglo (40 m) and Zuleika (20 m) than at Bounty, where it is close to the surface. At Bounty, Au concentrations in dried vegetation varied from < 0.5 ppb in background areas to a maximum of 11 ppb (the highest for any area) over mineralization. In general, the association between Au concentrations in vegetation and mineralization is only weak although, at Zuleika, Maireana (bluebush) seemed a slightly better sample medium than soil for predicting the location of underlying mineralization.As the emphasis in exploration changes to more difficult terrains, the suitability of biogeochemistry needs to be re-examined. These preliminary results from Western Australia suggest that biogeochemistry may have some role to play in the search for deeply buried mineral deposits.