Relating Solar Energetic Particle Event Fluences to Peak Intensities

Recently we (Kahler and Ling, Solar Phys.292, 59, 2017: KL) have shown that time–intensity profiles [\(I(t)\)] of 14 large solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be fitted with a simple two-parameter fit, the modified Weibull function, which is characterized by shape and scaling parameters [\(\alpha\) and \(\beta\)]. We now look for a simple correlation between an event peak energy intensity [\(I_{\mathrm{p}}\)] and the time integral of \(I(t)\) over the event duration: the fluence [\(F\)]. We first ask how the ratio of \(F/I_{\mathrm{p}}\) varies for the fits of the 14 KL events and then examine that ratio for three separate published statistical studies of SEP events in which both \(F\) and \(I_{\mathrm{p}}\) were measured for comparisons of those parameters with various solar-flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters. The three studies included SEP energies from a 4?–?13 MeV band to \(E > 100~\mbox{MeV}\). Within each group of SEP events, we find a very robust correlation (\(\mathrm{CC} > 0.90\)) in log–log plots of \(F\)versus\(I_{\mathrm{p}}\) over four decades of \(I_{\mathrm{p}}\). The ratio increases from western to eastern longitudes. From the value of \(I_{\mathrm{p}}\) for a given event, \(F\) can be estimated to within a standard deviation of a factor of \({\leq}\,2\). Log–log plots of two studies are consistent with slopes of unity, but the third study shows plot slopes of \({<}\,1\) and decreasing with increasing energy for their four energy ranges from \(E > 10~\mbox{MeV}\) to \({>}\,100~\mbox{MeV}\). This difference is not explained.     

Kelvin–Helmholtz Instability in a Cool Solar Jet in the Framework of Hall Magnetohydrodynamics: A Case Study

We investigate the conditions under which the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes in a cylindrical magnetic flux tube moving along its axis become unstable against the Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability. We use the dispersion relations of MHD modes obtained from the linearized Hall MHD equations for cool (zero beta) plasma by assuming real wave numbers and complex angular wave frequencies/complex wave phase velocities. The dispersion equations are solved numerically at fixed input parameters and varying values of the ratio \(l_{\mathrm{Hall}}/a\), where \(l_{\mathrm{Hall}} = c/\omega_{\mathrm{pi}}\) (\(c\) being the speed of light, and \(\omega_{\mathrm{pi}}\) the ion plasma frequency) and \(a\) is the flux tube radius. It is shown that the stability of the MHD modes depends upon four parameters: the density contrast between the flux tube and its environment, the ratio of external and internal magnetic fields, the ratio \(l_{\mathrm{Hall}}/a\), and the value of the Alfvén Mach number defined as the ratio of the tube axial velocity to Alfvén speed inside the flux tube. It is found that at high density contrasts, for small values of \(l_{\mathrm{Hall}}/a\), the kink (\(m = 1\)) mode can become unstable against KH instability at some critical Alfvén Mach number (or equivalently at critical flow speed), but a threshold \(l_{\mathrm{Hall}}/a\) can suppress the onset of the KH instability. At small density contrasts, however, the magnitude of \(l_{\mathrm{Hall}}/a\) does not affect noticeably the condition for instability occurrence – even though it can reduce the critical Alfvén Mach number. It is established that the sausage mode (\(m = 0\)) is not subject to the KH instability.     

Ratio of the Core to the Extended Emissions in the Comoving Frame for Blazars

In a two-component jet model, the emissions are the sum of the core and extended emissions: \(S^{\mathrm{ob}}=S_{\mathrm{core}}^{\mathrm{ob}}+S_{\mathrm{ext}}^{\mathrm{ob}}\), with the core emissions, \(S_{\mathrm{core}}^{\mathrm{ob}}= f S_{\mathrm{ext}}^{\mathrm{ob}}\delta ^{q}\) being a function of the Doppler factor \(\delta \), the extended emission \(S_{\mathrm{ext}}^{\mathrm{ob}}\), the jet type dependent factor q, and the ratio of the core to the extended emissions in the comoving frame, f. The f is an unobservable but important parameter. Following our previous work, we collect 65 blazars with available Doppler factor \(\delta \), superluminal velocity \(\beta _{\mathrm{app}}\), and core-dominance parameter, R, and calculated the ratio, f, and performed statistical analyses. We found that the ratio, f, in BL Lacs is on average larger than that in FSRQs. We suggest that the difference of the ratio f between FSRQs and BL Lacs is one of the possible reasons that cause the difference of other observed properties between them. We also find some significant correlations between \(\log f\) and other parameters, including intrinsic (de-beamed) peak frequency, \(\log \nu _{\mathrm{p}}^{\mathrm{in}}\), intrinsic polarization, \(\log P^{\mathrm{in}}\), and core-dominance parameter, \(\log R\), for the whole sample. In addition, we show that the ratio, f, can be estimated by R.     

The Na <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">i</Emphasis> and Sr <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Resonance Lines in Solar Prominences

We estimate the electron density, \(n_{\mathrm{e}}\), and its spatial variation in quiescent prominences from the observed emission ratio of the resonance lines Na?i?5890 Å (D₂) and Sr?ii?4078 Å. For a bright prominence (\(\tau_{\alpha}\approx25\)) we obtain a mean \(n_{\mathrm{e}}\approx2\times10^{10}~\mbox{cm}^{-3}\); for a faint one (\(\tau _{\alpha }\approx4\)) \(n_{\mathrm{e}}\approx4\times10^{10}~\mbox{cm}^{-3}\) on two consecutive days with moderate internal fluctuation and no systematic variation with height above the solar limb. The thermal and non-thermal contributions to the line broadening, \(T_{\mathrm{kin}}\) and \(V_{\mathrm{nth}}\), required to deduce \(n_{\mathrm{e}}\) from the emission ratio Na?i/Sr?ii cannot be unambiguously determined from observed widths of lines from atoms of different mass. The reduced widths, \(\Delta\lambda_{\mathrm{D}}/\lambda_{0}\), of Sr?ii?4078 Å show an excess over those from Na?D₂ and \(\mbox{H}\delta\,4101\) Å, assuming the same \(T_{\mathrm{kin}}\) and \(V_{\mathrm{nth}}\). We attribute this excess broadening to higher non-thermal broadening induced by interaction of ions with the prominence magnetic field. This is suggested by the finding of higher macro-shifts of Sr?ii?4078 Å as compared to those from Na?D₂.     

First integrals for the Kepler problem with linear drag

In this work we consider the Kepler problem with linear drag, and prove the existence of a continuous vector-valued first integral, obtained taking the limit as \(t\rightarrow +\infty \) of the Runge–Lenz vector. The norm of this first integral can be interpreted as an asymptotic eccentricity \(e_{\infty }\) with \(0\le e_{\infty } \le 1\). The orbits satisfying \(e_{\infty } <1\) approach the singularity by an elliptic spiral and the corresponding solutions \(x(t)=r(t)e^{i\theta (t)}\) have a norm r(t) that goes to zero like a negative exponential and an argument \(\theta (t)\) that goes to infinity like a positive exponential. In particular, the difference between consecutive times of passage through the pericenter, say \(T_{n+1} -T_n\), goes to zero as \(\frac{1}{n}\).     

Prediction of the Length of Upcoming Solar Cycles

The forecast of solar cycle (SC) characteristics is crucial particularly for several space-based missions. In the present study, we propose a new model for predicting the length of the SC. The model uses the information of the width of an autocorrelation function that is derived from the daily sunspot data for each SC. We tested the model on Versions 1 and 2 of the daily international sunspot number data for SCs 10?–?24. We found that the autocorrelation width \(A_{\mathrm{w}} ^{n}\) of SC \(n\) during the second half of its ascending phase correlates well with the modified length that is defined as \(T_{\mathrm{cy}}^{n+2} - T_{\mathrm{a}}^{n}\). Here \(T_{\mathrm{cy}}^{n+2}\) and \(T_{ \mathrm{a}}^{n}\) are the length and ascent time of SCs \(n+2\) and \(n\), respectively. The estimated correlation coefficient between the model parameters is 0.93 (0.91) for Version 1 (Version 2) sunspot series. The standard errors in the observed and predicted lengths of the SCs for Version 1 and Version 2 data are 0.38 and 0.44 years, respectively. The advantage of the proposed model is that the predictions of the length of the upcoming two SCs (i.e., \(n+1\), \(n+2\)) are readily available at the time of the peak of SC \(n\). The present model gives a forecast of 11.01, 10.52, and 11.91 years (11.01, 12.20, and 11.68 years) for the length of SCs 24, 25, and 26, respectively, for Version 1 (Version 2).     

Dependence of the Sunspot-Group Size on the Level of Solar Activity and its Influence on the Calibration of Solar Observers

We study the distribution of the sunspot-group size (area) and its dependence on the level of solar activity. We show that the fraction of small groups is not constant but decreases with the level of solar activity so that high solar activity is mainly defined by large groups. We analyze the possible influence of solar activity on the ability of a realistic observer to see and report the daily number of sunspot groups. It is shown that the relation between the number of sunspot groups as seen by different observers with different observational acuity thresholds is strongly nonlinear and cannot be approximated by the traditionally used linear scaling (\(k\)-factors). The observational acuity threshold [\(A_{\mathrm{th}}\)] is considered to quantify the quality of each observer, instead of the traditional relative \(k\)-factor. A nonlinear \(c\)-factor based on \(A_{\mathrm{th}}\) is proposed, which can be used to correct each observer to the reference conditions. The method is tested on a pair of principal solar observers, Wolf and Wolfer, and it is shown that the traditional linear correction, with the constant \(k\)-factor of 1.66 to scale Wolf to Wolfer, leads to an overestimate of solar activity around solar maxima.     

Evaluating (and Improving) Estimates of the Solar Radial Magnetic Field Component from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

Although for many solar physics problems the desirable or meaningful boundary is the radial component of the magnetic field \(B_{\mathrm {r}}\), the most readily available measurement is the component of the magnetic field along the line of sight to the observer, \(B_{\mathrm {los}}\). As this component is only equal to the radial component where the viewing angle is exactly zero, some approximation is required to estimate \(B_{\mathrm {r}}\) at all other observed locations. In this study, a common approximation known as the “\(\mu\)-correction”, which assumes all photospheric field to be radial, is compared to a method that invokes computing a potential field that matches the observed \(B_{\mathrm {los}}\), from which the potential field radial component, \(B_{\mathrm {r}}^{\mathrm {pot}}\) is recovered. We demonstrate that in regions that are truly dominated by a radially oriented field at the resolution of the data employed, the \(\mu\)-correction performs acceptably if not better than the potential-field approach. However, it is also shown that for any solar structure that includes horizontal fields, i.e. active regions, the potential-field method better recovers both the strength of the radial field and the location of magnetic neutral line.     

Improved Determination of the Location of the Temperature Maximum in the Corona

The most used method to calculate the coronal electron temperature [\(T_{\mathrm{e}} (r)\)] from a coronal density distribution [\(n_{\mathrm{e}} (r)\)] is the scale-height method (SHM). We introduce a novel method that is a generalization of a method introduced by Alfvén (Ark. Mat. Astron. Fys. 27, 1, 1941) to calculate \(T_{\mathrm{e}}(r)\) for a corona in hydrostatic equilibrium: the “HST” method. All of the methods discussed here require given electron-density distributions [\(n_{\mathrm{e}} (r)\)] which can be derived from white-light (WL) eclipse observations. The new “DYN” method determines the unique solution of \(T_{\mathrm{e}}(r)\) for which \(T_{\mathrm{e}}(r \rightarrow \infty) \rightarrow 0\) when the solar corona expands radially as realized in hydrodynamical solar-wind models. The applications of the SHM method and DYN method give comparable distributions for \(T_{\mathrm{e}}(r)\). Both have a maximum [\(T_{\max}\)] whose value ranges between 1?–?3 MK. However, the peak of temperature is located at a different altitude in both cases. Close to the Sun where the expansion velocity is subsonic (\(r < 1.3\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) the DYN method gives the same results as the HST method. The effects of the other free parameters on the DYN temperature distribution are presented in the last part of this study. Our DYN method is a new tool to evaluate the range of altitudes where the heating rate is maximum in the solar corona when the electron-density distribution is obtained from WL coronal observations.     

Advective accretion flow properties around rotating black holes – application to GRO J1655-40

We examine the properties of the viscous dissipative accretion flow around rotating black holes in the presence of mass loss. Considering the thin disc approximation, we self-consistently calculate the inflow-outflow solutions and observe that the mass outflow rates decrease with the increase in viscosity parameter (\(\alpha \)). Further, we carry out the model calculation of quasi-periodic oscillation frequency (\(\nu _{\mathrm{QPO}}\)) that is frequently observed in black hole sources and observe that \(\nu ^\mathrm{max}_{\mathrm{QPO}}\) increases with the increase of black hole spin (\(a_k\)). Then, we employ our model in order to explain the High Frequency Quasi-Periodic Oscillations (HFQPOs) observed in black hole source GRO J1655-40. While doing this, we attempt to constrain the range of \(a_k\) based on observed HFQPOs (\(\sim \)300 Hz and \(\sim \)450 Hz) for the black hole source GRO J1655-40.     

Geomagnetic Effects of Corotating Interaction Regions

We present an analysis of the geoeffectiveness of corotating interaction regions (CIRs), employing the data recorded from 25 January to 5 May 2005 and throughout 2008. These two intervals in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23 are characterised by a particularly low number of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We study in detail how four geomagnetic-activity parameters (the Dst, Ap, and AE indices, as well as the Dst time derivative, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\)) are related to three CIR-related solar wind parameters (flow speed, \(V\), magnetic field, \(B\), and the convective electric field based on the southward Geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) magnetic field component, \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\)) on a three-hour time resolution. In addition, we quantify statistical relationships between the mentioned geomagnetic indices. It is found that Dst is correlated best to \(V\), with a correlation coefficient of \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\), whereas there is no correlation between \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) and \(V\). The Ap and AE indices attain peaks about half a day before the maximum of \(V\), with correlation coefficients ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\) to \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.7\), depending on the sample used. The best correlations of Ap and AE are found with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\) with a delay of 3 h, being characterised by \(\mathrm{cc}\gtrsim 0.6\). The Dst derivative \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) is also correlated with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\), but the correlation is significantly weaker \(\mathrm{cc}\approx 0.4\)?–?0.5, with a delay of 0?–?3 h, depending on the employed sample. Such low values of correlation coefficients indicate that there are other significant effects that influence the relationship between the considered parameters. The correlation of all studied geomagnetic parameters with \(B\) are characterised by considerably lower correlation coefficients, ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}=0.3\) in the case of \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) up to \(\mathrm{cc}=0.56\) in the case of Ap. It is also shown that peak values of geomagnetic indices depend on the duration of the CIR-related structures. The Dst is closely correlated with Ap and AE (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.7\)), Dst being delayed for about 3 h. On the other hand, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) peaks simultaneously with Ap and AE, with correlation coefficients of 0.48 and 0.56, respectively. The highest correlation (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.81\)) is found for the relationship between Ap and AE.     

Role of primordial black holes in the direct collapse scenario of supermassive black hole formation at high redshifts

In this paper, we explore the possibility of accreting primordial black holes as the source of heating for the collapsing gas in the context of the direct collapse black hole scenario for the formation of super-massive black holes (SMBHs) at high redshifts, \(z\sim \) 6–7. One of the essential requirements for the direct collapse model to work is to maintain the temperature of the in-falling gas at \(\approx \)10\(^4\) K. We show that even under the existing abundance limits, the primordial black holes of masses \(\gtrsim \)10\(^{-2}M_\odot \), can heat the collapsing gas to an extent that the \(\mathrm{H}_2\) formation is inhibited. The collapsing gas can maintain its temperature at \(10^4\) K till the gas reaches a critical density \(n_{{c}} \,{\approx }\, 10^3~\hbox {cm}^{-3}\), at which the roto-vibrational states of \(\mathrm{H}_2\) approaches local thermodynamic equilibrium and \(\mathrm{H}_2\) cooling becomes inefficient. In the absence of \(\mathrm{H}_2\) cooling, the temperature of the collapsing gas stays at \(\approx \)10\(^4\) K even as it collapses further. We discuss scenarios of subsequent angular momentum removal and the route to find collapse through either a supermassive star or a supermassive disk.     

GONG p-Mode Parameters Through Two Solar Cycles

We investigate the parameters of global solar p-mode oscillations, namely damping width \(\Gamma\), amplitude \(A\), mean squared velocity \(\langle v^{2}\rangle\), energy \(E\), and energy supply rate \(\mathrm{d}E/\mathrm{d}t\), derived from two solar cycles’ worth (1996?–?2018) of Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) time series for harmonic degrees \(l=0\,\mbox{--}\,150\). We correct for the effect of fill factor, apparent solar radius, and spurious jumps in the mode amplitudes. We find that the amplitude of the activity-related changes of \(\Gamma\) and \(A\) depends on both frequency and harmonic degree of the modes, with the largest variations of \(\Gamma\) for modes with \(2400~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\le\nu\le3300~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\) and \(31\le l \le60\) with a minimum-to-maximum variation of \(26.6\pm0.3\%\) and of \(A\) for modes with \(2400~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\le\nu\le 3300~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\) and \(61\le l \le100\) with a minimum-to-maximum variation of \(27.4\pm0.4\%\). The level of correlation between the solar radio flux \(F_{10.7}\) and mode parameters also depends on mode frequency and harmonic degree. As a function of mode frequency, the mode amplitudes are found to follow an asymmetric Voigt profile with \(\nu_{\text{max}}=3073.59\pm0.18~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\). From the mode parameters, we calculate physical mode quantities and average them over specific mode frequency ranges. In this way, we find that the mean squared velocities \(\langle v^{2}\rangle\) and energies \(E\) of p modes are anticorrelated with the level of activity, varying by \(14.7\pm0.3\%\) and \(18.4\pm0.3\%\), respectively, and that the mode energy supply rates show no significant correlation with activity. With this study we expand previously published results on the temporal variation of solar p-mode parameters. Our results will be helpful to future studies of the excitation and damping of p modes, i.e., the interplay between convection, magnetic field, and resonant acoustic oscillations.     

Addendum to: Strength of the Solar Coronal Magnetic Field – A Comparison of Independent Estimates Using Contemporaneous Radio and White-Light Observations

This addendum uses an alternate fit for the electron density distribution \(N(r)\) (see Figure 1) and estimates the coronal magnetic field using the new model. We find that the estimates of the magnetic field are in close agreement using both the models.

We have fit the \(N(r)\) distribution obtained from STEREO-A/COR1 and SOHO/LASCO-C2 using a fifth-order polynomial (see Figure 1). The expression can be written as

$$\begin{aligned} N_{\text{cor}}(r) &= 1.43 \times 10^{9} r^{-5} - 1.91 \times 10^{9} r^{-4} + 1.07 \times 10^{9} r^{-3} - 2.87 \times 10^{8} r^{-2} \\ &\quad {} + 3.76 \times 10^{7} r^{-1} - 1.91 \times 10^{6} , \end{aligned}$$

(1)

where \(N_{\text{cor}}(r)\) is in units of cm^?3 and \(r\) is in units of \(\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\). The background coronal electron density is enhanced by a factor of 5.5 at 2.63 \(\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\) during the coronal mass ejection (CME). The estimated coronal magnetic field strength (\(B\)) using radio data indicates that \(B(r) \approx(0.51\text{\,--\,}0.48) \pm 0.02\ \mathrm{G}\) in the range \(r \approx2.65\text{\, --\,}2.82\ \mathrm{R}_{\odot}\). The field strengths for STEREO-A/COR1 and SOHO/LASCO-C2 are ≈?0.32 G at \(r \approx 3.11\ \mathrm{R}_{\odot}\) and ≈?0.12 G at \(r \approx 4.40\ \mathrm{R}_{\odot}\), respectively.

     

The Poynting-Robertson effect in the Newtonian potential with a Yukawa correction

We consider a Yukawa-type gravitational potential combined with the Poynting-Robertson effect. Dust particles originating within the asteroid belt and moving on circular and elliptic trajectories are studied and expressions for the time rate of change of their orbital radii and semimajor axes, respectively, are obtained. These expressions are written in terms of basic particle parameters, namely their density and diameter. Then, they are applied to produce expressions for the time required by the dust particles to reach the orbit of Earth. For the Yukawa gravitational potential, dust particles of diameter \(10^{ - 3}\) m in circular orbits require times of the order of \(8.557 \times 10^{6}\) yr and for elliptic orbits of eccentricities \(e =0.1, 0.5\) require times of \(9.396 \times 10^{6}\) and \(2.129 \times 10^{6}\) yr respectively to reach Earth’s orbit. Finally, various cases of the Yukawa potential are studied and the corresponding particle times to reach Earth’s are derived per case along with numerical results for circular and various elliptical orbits.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">GALEX</Emphasis> far-ultraviolet observations of metal-poor subdwarfs

Far-ultraviolet photometry derived from the GALEX satellite observatory has been compiled for a sample of metal-poor subdwarfs with \(\mathrm{[Fe/H]} < -1.0\). The FUV properties of these subdwarfs are compared with those of a set of Population I dwarfs that are known to have low levels of chromospheric activity. Comparisons are made via a number of photometric plots, including an absolute FUV magnitude versus \((V-K_{s})\) diagram, two-colour diagrams involving both \((m_{ \mathrm{FUV}}-B)\) and \((m_{\mathrm{FUV}}-V)\) versus \(B-V\), and a two-colour diagram composed of \((m_{\mathrm{FUV}}-V)\) versus \((V-K_{s})\). The warmest subdwarfs with \((V-K_{s}) \sim1.2\mbox{--}1.4\) show FUV excesses ranging from \(\sim2\mbox{--}3~\mbox{mag}\) relative to the Population I dwarfs, with the amount of FUV enhancement decreasing among subdwarfs of decreasing effective temperature. The coolest dwarfs that are compared have \((V-K_{s}) \sim1.8\), and among these stars the subdwarfs with \(-2.0 \leq{\mathrm{[Fe/H]}} \leq-1.0\) approach the locus of low activity Population I dwarfs in the \((m_{\mathrm{FUV}}-V, V-K_{s})\) diagram. In the \((m_{\mathrm{FUV}}-B, B-V)\) diagram the subdwarfs in this metallicity range overlap the Population I dwarf sequence for \((B-V) > 0.6\). The behaviour of the subdwarfs is consistent with their FUV fluxes being determined by a combination of a photospheric FUV spectrum, the strength of which diminishes towards cooler effective temperatures, and a spectrum of emission lines arising from a chromosphere and/or transition region which are of comparable strength between the coolest dwarfs and subdwarfs.     

Photospheric Shear Flows in Solar Active Regions and Their Relation to Flare Occurrence

Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear flows in ARs for a better understanding of their relation to flare occurrence. Photospheric flow fields were determined by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method to a large data set of 2548 coaligned pairs of AR vector magnetograms with 12-min separation over the period 2012?–?2016. From each AR flow-field map, three shear-flow parameters were derived corresponding to the mean (\(\langle S\rangle \)), maximum (\(S_{\mathrm{max}}\)) and integral (\(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\)) shear-flow speeds along strong-gradient, strong-field MPIL segments. We calculated flaring rates within 24 h as a function of each shear-flow parameter and we investigated the relation between the parameters and the waiting time (\(\tau \)) until the next major flare (class M1.0 or above) after the parameter observation. In general, it is found that the larger \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) an AR has, the more likely it is for the AR to produce flares within 24 h. It is also found that among ARs which produce major flares, if one has a larger value of \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) then \(\tau \) generally gets shorter. These results suggest that large ARs with widespread and/or strong shear flows along MPILs tend to not only be more flare productive, but also produce major flares within 24 h or less.     

Active Region Photospheric Magnetic Properties Derived from Line-of-Sight and Radial Fields

The effect of using two representations of the normal-to-surface magnetic field to calculate photospheric measures that are related to the active region (AR) potential for flaring is presented. Several AR properties were computed using line-of-sight (\(B_{\mathrm{los}}\)) and spherical-radial (\(B_{r}\)) magnetograms from the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) products of the Solar Dynamics Observatory, characterizing the presence and features of magnetic polarity inversion lines, fractality, and magnetic connectivity of the AR photospheric field. The data analyzed correspond to \({\approx\,}4{,}000\) AR observations, achieved by randomly selecting 25% of days between September 2012 and May 2016 for analysis at 6-hr cadence. Results from this statistical study include: i) the \(B_{r}\) component results in a slight upwards shift of property values in a manner consistent with a field-strength underestimation by the \(B_{\mathrm{los}}\) component; ii) using the \(B_{r}\) component results in significantly lower inter-property correlation in one-third of the cases, implying more independent information as regards the state of the AR photospheric magnetic field; iii) flaring rates for each property vary between the field components in a manner consistent with the differences in property-value ranges resulting from the components; iv) flaring rates generally increase for higher values of properties, except the Fourier spectral power index that has flare rates peaking around a value of \(5/3\). These findings indicate that there may be advantages in using \(B_{r}\) rather than \(B_{\mathrm{los}}\) in calculating flare-related AR magnetic properties, especially for regions located far from central meridian.     

Contribution to the Solar Mean Magnetic Field from Different Solar Regions

Seven-year-long seeing-free observations of solar magnetic fields with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) were used to study the sources of the solar mean magnetic field, SMMF, defined as the net line-of-sight magnetic flux divided over the solar disk area. To evaluate the contribution of different regions to the SMMF, we separated all the pixels of each SDO/HMI magnetogram into three subsets: weak (\(B^{\mathrm{W}}\)), intermediate (\(B^{\mathrm{I}}\)), and strong (\(B^{\mathrm{S}}\)) fields. The \(B^{\mathrm{W}}\) component represents areas with magnetic flux densities below the chosen threshold; the \(B^{\mathrm{I}}\) component is mainly represented by network fields, remains of decayed active regions (ARs), and ephemeral regions. The \(B^{\mathrm{S}}\) component consists of magnetic elements in ARs. To derive the contribution of a subset to the total SMMF, the linear regression coefficients between the corresponding component and the SMMF were calculated. We found that i) when the threshold level of 30 Mx?cm^?2 is applied, the \(B^{\mathrm{I}}\) and \(B^{\mathrm{S}}\) components together contribute from 65% to 95% of the SMMF, while the fraction of the occupied area varies in a range of 2?–?6% of the disk area; ii) as the threshold magnitude is lowered to 6 Mx?cm^?2, the contribution from \(B^{\mathrm{I}}+B^{\mathrm{S}}\) grows to 98%, and the fraction of the occupied area reaches a value of about 40% of the solar disk. In summary, we found that regardless of the threshold level, only a small part of the solar disk area contributes to the SMMF. This means that the photospheric magnetic structure is an intermittent inherently porous medium, resembling a percolation cluster. These findings suggest that the long-standing concept that continuous vast unipolar areas on the solar surface are the source of the SMMF may need to be reconsidered.     

Lunar frozen orbits revisited

Lunar frozen orbits, characterized by constant orbital elements on average, have been previously found using various dynamical models, incorporating the gravitational field of the Moon and the third-body perturbation exerted by the Earth. The resulting mean orbital elements must be converted to osculating elements to initialize the orbiter position and velocity in the lunar frame. Thus far, however, there has not been an explicit transformation from mean to osculating elements, which includes the zonal harmonic \(J_2\), the sectorial harmonic \(C_{22}\), and the Earth third-body effect. In the current paper, we derive the dynamics of a lunar orbiter under the mentioned perturbations, which are shown to be dominant for the evolution of circumlunar orbits, and use von Zeipel’s method to obtain a transformation between mean and osculating elements. Whereas the dynamics of the mean elements do not include \(C_{22}\), and hence does not affect the equilibria leading to frozen orbits, \(C_{22}\) is present in the mean-to-osculating transformation, hence affecting the initialization of the physical circumlunar orbit. Simulations show that by using the newly-derived transformation, frozen orbits exhibit better behavior in terms of long-term stability about the mean values of eccentricity and argument of periapsis, especially for high orbits.