The stress field in Australia from composite fault plane solutions of the strongest earthquakes in the continent

The purpose of this study is to make an estimate of the stress field in the Australian continent from composite fault plane solutions of the strongest events in the area. 21 seismic events with magnitude greater than 5.0 have been chosen from a database of 400 Australian earthquakes since 1902 for performing composite fault plane solutions. The choice is based on the availability of data for first P-wave arrivals. Using data from ISC bulletins we have calculated composite fault plane solutions for six major earthquake zones in the country. An individual fault plane solution for at least one event in each zone has been computed, too. The space distribution of the focal mechanisms confirms a dominant east-west compression stress in the continent, with different tilt in different areas. The main compression axes in the Tennant Creek area (Northern Australia) are with clear north-south direction. The general direction of the plate motion is north-northeast.     

Monitoring of spectral parameters of longitudinal waves from the strongest earthquakes in Honshu Island, Japan in 2011

Results of the retrospective analysis of spectral parameters of earthquakes off the coast of Honshu Island, in the area of the catastrophic Tohoku-Oki event of March 11, 2011, are presented. Spectra of longitudinal waves on teleseismic distances are considered. The increase in the ratio between the spectral amplitude of fluctuations at frequencies f = 0.1 Hz and f = 1 Hz some months prior to the catastrophic earthquake is studied. That is, by the time of the approach of the main shock, the share of high-frequency fluctuations in the spectrum decreases, which can testify to a change of the strain of the environment in the source zone of strong events.     

Variation of human perceptiveness of earthquakes during seismic sequences

This paper describes the variation of the human perception of earthquakes under the peculiar condition of seismic sequence occurrence. To this aim, we chose and have analyzed four seismic sequences that reflect the most common models of seismicity occurrence in the Italian territory. Our data always refer to the epicentral area, so that the contribution of the epicentral distance to the earthquake sensitiveness is considered constant. To search for recurrent behavior of people in the perception of earthquakes, we crossed seismological data to sensitivity data coming from the archives of the Italian Civil Protection. In each sequence, we individuate a number of “indicators”, such as the rate between felt and not-felt events and the minimum magnitude for which 100% of the events are felt. Such indicators are proportional to the energy released by the sequence and can be particularly affected by the time protraction of the sequence, and/or by the different familiarity with the seismic phenomenon, and/or by the intensity of the emotional impact of a seismic crisis. The observed trends of sensitiveness show a significant variation of the people perceptivity within the sequence development. From the analysis of the dataset, one can distinguish the variation of perceptivity due to emotional factors from those due to physical factors. An important observation, which is confirmed by a statistical analysis, is that the source depth does not affect the perceptiveness of earthquakes. Finally, we find important differences between on-sequence and off-sequence human perceptiveness that are connected with the different levels of alert.     

大同－阳高地震的余震窗口

对大同－阳高６．１级中强震群余震序列频度的起伏变化进行了分析，认为该序列的频度变化是汾渭地震带３７°以北地区地震活动的“窗口”。其预报能力Ｒ值评分为０．６３。     

Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources

It has long been known that human activities such as waste fluid disposal and reservoir impoundment may cause earthquakes. Recently, anthropogenic activities to tackle the increasing energy demand and to address climate change issues are also reported to induce earthquakes. These activities have a common attribute in that fluids are injected and extracted underground and induce spatiotemporal changes of pore pressure and stress, which may cause slip on faults. Induced earthquakes not only pose significant impacts on seismic hazard assessment and preparation, but also raise the question to the society as how to balance the economic needs of resources development and the public’s concerns about potential environmental impacts. Here we review the observations of fluid-injection/extraction induced earthquakes, ground deformation associated with these activities, and their physical mechanisms. Furthermore, we discuss the influences of induced earthquakes on seismic hazard models, regulatory policies on these anthropogenic activities, and current development of academic, industrial and government initiatives and collaborations in order to understand this intriguing phenomenon and address associated challenges.     

Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes occurred in various regions in the world

The earthquake spatial distribution is being studied, using earthquake catalogs from different seismic regions (California, Canada, Central Asia, Greece, and Japan). The quality of the available catalogs, taking into account the completeness of the magnitude, is examined. Based on the analysis of the catalogs, it was determined that the probability densities of the inter-event distance distribution collapse into single distribution when the data is rescaled. The collapse of the data provides a clear illustration of earthquake-occurrence self-similarity in space.     

姚安地震余震序列研究

将2000年姚安MS6.5地震的19个3.0≤ML<5.0余震的垂直分量在频率域内进行地震矩张量反演,对反演结果进行了讨论,并用最小二乘法回归了地震矩M0、矩震级MW和地方震震级ML之间的关系;根据对余震序列主压应力轴随时间的变化特点,分析了震区复杂的应力状态。     

全球不同地区强震与地球自转之间的关系分析

对全球及一些地区地震在地球自转速率长周期变化的加速和减速段里年发生次数进行了分析,得到的结果表明,就全球地震而言,减速期7级以上地震年发生次数似乎略高于加速期,8级以上地震年发生次数似乎相当,没有明显差异,8.5级以上地震年发生次数似乎比加速期里高.太平洋东带和太平洋北带的地震,在减速期的年发生次数似乎一致地比加速期略...     

Seismic loss and damage in light-frame wood buildings from sequences of induced earthquakes

Activities related to oil and gas production, especially deep disposal of wastewater, have led to sequences of induced earthquakes in the central United States. This study aims to quantify damage to and seismic losses for light-frame wood buildings when subjected to sequences of induced, small to moderate magnitude, events. To conduct this investigation, one- and two-story multifamily wood frame buildings are designed, and their seismic response dynamically simulated using three-dimensional nonlinear models, subjected to ground motion sequences recorded in induced events. Damage is quantified through seismic losses, which are estimated using the FEMA P-58 methodology. Results show that at levels of shaking experienced in recent earthquakes, minor damage, consisting of cracking of interior finishes and nonstructural damage to plumbing and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, is expected, which is consistent with observed damage in these events. The study also examines how expected losses and building fragility will accumulate and/or change over a sequence of earthquakes. Results indicate that damage quantified in terms of absorbed hysteretic energy tended to accumulate over the sequences; this damage corresponds to elongation or widening of cracks. However, fragility is not significantly altered by damage in a preceding event, meaning structures are not becoming more vulnerable due to existing damage. In addition, sequences of events do not change losses if the building is only repaired once at the end of the sequence, as the worsening of damage does not alter repair actions. If repairs are conducted after each event, though, total seismic losses can increase greatly from the sequence.     

Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.     

Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 5. Estimating the Duration of a Hazardous Period

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Continuing the series of publications on aftershock hazard assessment, we consider the problem of estimating the time interval after a strong earthquake that...     

Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 4. Estimating the Maximum Magnitude of Future Aftershocks

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - In this paper, we consider the problem of forecasting the magnitude of the strongest aftershock starting from a certain instant of time in the future. This...     

A simulation system of seismogeny, occurrence and development of earthquakes

A personal computer processing system for simulation of earthquake seismogeny, occurrence and development is given in this paper. It can automatically process the discontinuous events such as earthquake occurrence during computation. The program can be paused when you want to display the computation results. After you analyze these graphical results the simulation process can be continued.     

近断层地震动最强速度脉冲方向分量特性研究

为了研究速度脉冲型地震动的最强速度脉冲方向分量与垂直或平行断层方向分量之间的特性差异,本文采用多分量速度脉冲识别方法从NGA-West2强震动数据库的236组近断层地震动速度脉冲记录中提取出最强速度脉冲方向分量,对其脉冲参数随震级M_W和断层距R变化的统计关系式进行了回归分析,并对比了最强速度脉冲方向分量与垂直或平行断层方向分量之间的特性差异。研究结果表明:当R＜30 km时,最强速度脉冲方向分量的脉冲幅值预测值较垂直或平行断层方向分量的预测值大,而当R＞30 km时,两种分量的脉冲幅值预测值相差不大,可以忽略;当M_W≤7.5时,最强速度脉冲方向分量的脉冲周期预测值比垂直或平行断层方向分量的预测值大,而当M_W＞7.5时,两种分量的脉冲周期预测值差异不大,可以忽略。      

Determination of source parameters of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and Japan from aftershock sequences

Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M _S ) and seismic moment (M _W ) magnitudes are calculated.     

伊兹米特地震的余震序列特征分析

对１９９９年８月１７日伊兹米特７．４级地震后的２０６９次Ｍ≥２．０余震进行了时间、空间序列分析,并对所得结果进行了讨论。     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

Anomaly of the ionospheric electron density close to earthquakes: Case studies of Pu'er and Wenchuan earthquakes

The electron density recorded onboard the DEMETER satellite was analyzed to search for possible anomalies before earthquakes both in space and time. To distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to geomagnetic activity, data were filtered using the K_p index. The analysis is based on the comparison of data recorded closely to earthquakes in space and time and past data for the same area. In analyzing data around the time and location of the Pu’er and Wenchuan earthquakes, obvious anomalies in electron density were found close to the epicenters, and some remarkable disturbances were detected before the earthquakes occurred. The results were finally compared with those of previous works that used the same data but employed different analysis methods. Good agreement was found which suggests that these anomalies have a close relation to the earthquake preparation.     

Theory of earthquakes. Part III: Inclusion collapse theory of deep earthquakes

A theory of deep earthquakes, termed the inclusion collapse theory, is proposed in this paper. In the inclusion theory of crustal (or shallow) earthquakes, faults were shown to terminate within an inclusion zone. This zone represents a region within the brittle portion of the lithospheric plate that contains open cracks (voids) of varying sizes that, to a first order approximation, are uniformly distributed throughout the inclusion zone. When the lithospheric plate containing these faults and their associated inclusions is subducted into the mantle, the stress normal to the fault planes must increase. A depth is eventually reached where slippage along the fault planes is no longer possible. Earthquakes are postulated to occur at a specified depth within the mantle as a result of processes leading to collapse of these voids.When the long-term modulus of the plate is much greater than the long-term modulus of the mantle, large pressures are shown to develop within the plate during periods of active subduction. These pressures are shown to be sufficient to initiate partial collapse of voids of similar geometry throughout the inclusion zone.The inclusion collapse theory and the concentration of pressure within the plate lead to four results. (1) Earthquakes that are produced by a void collapse mechanism will not occur below a subduction depth calculated to be between 350 and 1000 km (2) The physical process most likely responsible for producing void collapse is the formation of shear, melt zones whose thicknesses are on the order of 1 to 10 cm in the immediate vicinity of the voids. This mechanism, is shown to produce a precursor time on the order of a few hundred seconds during which there is a release of shear strain prior to the earthquake. (3) The maximum energy released by void collapse is independent of the source depth. (4) The number of earthquakes produced by this process will decrease hyperbolically with source depth. Source depth, in the context used in this article, refers to the depth in the mantle to the inclusion zone where voids of similar geometry are undergoing partial collapse. The maximum source depth refers to the depth where all voids have closed.