On the maintenance of the axisymmetric part of the flow in the atmosphere

Summary The maintenance of the axisymmetric component of the flow in the atmosphere is investigated by means of a steady-state, quasi-geostrophic formulation of the meteorological equations. It is shown that the meridional variations in the time-averaged axisymmetric variables can be expressed as the sum of three contributions, one being due to the eddy heat transport, another to the eddy momentum transport, and a third to the convective-radiative equilibrium temperature which enters the problem through the specification of a Newtonian form of diabatic heating. The contributions by the large scale eddies are evaluated through the use of observed values for the eddy heat and momentum transports.The contributions from each of the three forcing mechanisms to the temperature and zonal wind fields are invstigated individually and found to be of about equal importance. The sum of the three contributions are also presented for the temperature, the zonal wind, the stream function associated with the mean meridional circulation and the corresponding vertical motion. Although the results fail to reproduce the main observed features of the lower stratosphere, they are found to be in good agreement with observations in the middle latitude troposphere. At any pressure level, for example, the computed mean zonal wind has a jet-like profile and the axis of the jet is found to slope to the south with height, as observed in the atmosphere.Based in part on a thesis submitted by the first author as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan. — Publication No. 194 from the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, The University of Michigan.     

Global analysis of the lower tropospheric disturbances in the tropics during the northern summer of the FGGE year part II: Regional characteristics of the disturbances

Regional characteristics of the synoptic-scale wave disturbances in the tropical lower troposphere were examined by analyzing the FGGE level III-b data. Three tropical regions, western Pacific, eastern Pacific, and a region from the African Continent to the Atlantic, were selected for the present study. Spectrum analysis, trajectory analysis and composite analysis were used to obtain characteristics of the wave disturbances for each region.Main findings are as follows: 1.) The generation region of the western Pacific wave disturbances related to typhoon development are found around 5° N and 170° E. 2.) An interaction of the western Pacific wave disturbances with the upper Mid-Pacific trough was indicated statistically as an intensifying condition for typhoons. 3.) The wave disturbances in the eastern Pacific originate to the west of Panama and propagate west-north-westward with a period of 5.7 day and a wavelength of about 2700 km. 4.) The structure of the eastern Pacific wave disturbances is similar to that of the western Pacific disturbances. 5.) Two different paths of the African waves are found over the African Continent. The northern disturbance has a period of 4.4 days while the southern one has a period of 3.3–3.6 days. 6.) Disturbances along the northern path of the African waves are traced only to as far as 45° W, and those along the southern path are traced to the Caribbean Sea.     

Significance of fossilized microbes from the Cambrian stromatolites in the Tarim Basin,Northwest China

Samples of the Cambrian microbial dolomites were collected from Penglaiba section,a well-exposed stratigraphic section in the northwestern area of the Tarim Basin.This study provides an analogue for mediated dolomites that can precipitate in microbial mats and biofilms.The Cambrian stromatolitic dolomites were studied using high-resolution scanning electron microscopy.The results are as follows:(1)dolomites with 50 nm to 100 nm spherical nanostructures are aggregated into minerals of larger sphericities;(2)nanospherical dolomites of 50 nm to 170 nm diameter are densely arranged as dumbbell-shaped or chained aggregates;(3)silicified filaments,as well as dumbbell-shaped and chain arrangements,are preserved as important microstructures.On the basis of sedimentological,compositional,geochemical,and petrographic data,the microstructures were interpreted as nanoglobules that function as bacteria in the nucleation and filament mineralization stages.The microstructures function as such because they are wrapped in extracellular polymeric substance(EPS)or mucus and mineralized fossils.Silicification accounts for the exceptional preservation of microbial mat structures,including biofilms,as well as filamentous and coccoid microbes.In addition,EPS process is capable of binding different elements,with preference for Si,Mg,and Ca.Such suitable composition favors microbe mineralization and dolomite nucleation on organic substrates.These microscopic structures suggest bacterial mineralization and provide visual evidence for the origin of microbial dolomites.     

Hydrogeological Zoning of the Central Minusinsk Basin by the Conditions of Formation of Fresh Groundwater Resources

A detailed hydrogeological zoning of the central part of the Minusinsk artesian basin is performed. Local basins confined to smaller plicated structures, as well as hydrogeological massifs of local scale, are recognized within large block structures. Direction of subsurface streams and their role in the formation of groundwater resources and composition are discussed. Forecast resources of fresh groundwater are estimated for every recognized structure.     

Estimation of the Amount of Suspended Sediment in the Tigris River using Artificial Neural Networks

The amount of sediment should be taken into consideration in the planning of water structures for efficient use of limited water resources. It is important to estimate the amount of sediment for the successful operation of these structures in their future performances. Such estimations can be achieved by Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) with low error percentages as seen in many other disciplines. These networks also enable the modeling of nonlinear relationships between the parameters affecting the event. The purpose of this research is to establish models for sediment amounts in the Tigris River at the Diyarbakir measurement station in Turkey. Rainfall, temperature and discharge are taken as independent variables in the models, whereas sediment is taken as the dependent variable. Fourteen different models are generated using ANNs and Regression Analysis (RA). The results are compared with each other and with the observed data. The relative error and determination coefficient are used as comparison criteria. It is concluded that due to their nonlinear modeling capability, ANNs give better results than RA.     

Methodology for the Process Based Acquisition and Assessment of Non-Intended Outputs in the Mining Industry

For the activities of the mining industry land, equipment, material, and energy are used. During operation material and energy flows such as overburden, dead rock, tailings, wastewater, exhaust air, dust, energy, abrasion, coolant and lubricant losses, are released. These released material and energy flows are nearly always without value for the raw material supply chain as they are not production targets. Instead, they have negative effects on the economy and ecology and are, therefore, referred to as ‘non-intended’. The knowledge of the quantities and qualities of these non-intended outputs as a function of the processes and their parameters is the basis for technical and economical measures. A methodology for the acquisition and assessment of the material and energy flows in the mining industry was developed and tested at the Technical University Berlin, Germany. For that purpose and based on a system analysis in different mines, all relevant material and energy flows were assigned to individual processes. Causal relationships, possible interactions, quantities, and qualities were examined as functions of system parameters. Finally, a technical and economic evaluation was performed.     

Origin of the rhyolitic rocks of the taupo volcanic zone, New Zealand

Major element, Rb, Sr, Ba, Cr and V analyses as well as 13 new rare earth element (REE) analyses are presented for the greywacke basement surrounding the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). On this basis the basement rocks are divided into a Western Basement of approximately andesitic composition ( 62% SiO₂) and an Eastern Basement of approximately granodiorite composition ( 75% SiO₂). These analyses, 5 new REE analyses for the rhyolites, and published data for the volcanic rocks of TVZ are used to investigate the petrogenesis of rhyolitic rocks in the area.Least-squares mixing calculations for major elements show that 88% fractional crystallisation of high-alumina basalt produces a liquid of rhyolitic bulk composition, but Rayleigh fractionation models show that the trace element concentrations of the rhyolites are inconsistent with basalt fractionation. 57% fractionation of the assemblage plagioclase (35.6%), orthopyroxene (9.7%), clinopyroxene (7.8%), ilmenite (0.6%) and magnetite (3.4%) from a plagioclase-pyroxene andesite can produce liquids of rhyolitic bulk composition. REE concentrations produced by this model are consistent with those observed in the rhyolites but predicted Ba and Rb values are lower and V concentrations are higher than those in the rhyolites. Andesite fractionation also produces an unrealistic fractionation of the Cr/V ratio.A non-modal melting model involving 35% melting of a granulitic assemblage (plagioclase + quartz + clinopyroxene + orthopyroxene + biotite + magnetite + cordierite) with a bulk composition equivalent to the Western Basement can reproduce the REE pattern of the rhyolites as well as the concentrations of Rb and Ba. Sr values remain anomalously high, but the Cr/V ratio does not indicate fractionation. Absolute values of Cr and V are within the uncertainties of published crystal—liquid partition coefficients. The rhyolites have relatively flat REE patterns (La/Yb 7.5), as do the greywackes (La/Yb 8.2), so it is therefore unlikely that the rhyolites equilibrated with a garnet or amphibole-bearing assemblage.     

Global model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-protonosphere system

In this paper the formulation of the problem and preliminary numerical computation results of the thermosphere-ionosphere-protonosphere system parameters are discussed.The model constructed describes time-dependent distributions of the multicomponent near-earth space plasma parameters by means of numerical integration of the appropriate three-dimensional plasma hydrodynamic equations. In the thermospheric block of the model, global distribution of neutral gas temperature and N₂, O₂, O concentrations, as well as three-dimensional circulation of the neutral gas are calculated in the range of height from 80 km to 520 km. In the ionospheric section of the model, global time-dependent distribution of ion and electron temperatures, as well as molecular and atomic O⁺, H⁺ ion concentrations are calculated. Global two-dimensional distribution of electric potential is calculated taking into account computed thermosphere and ionosphere parameters.The inputs needed for our global model are the solar EUV spectrum; the auroral precipitation pattern; the distribution of the field-aligned currents and the model of the geomagnetic field.Preliminary results are obtained without regard to electromagnetic plasma drift for the solar minimum, low geomagnetic activity and spring equinox conditions. Global distributions of the calculated parameters in the magnetic dipole latitude-longitude frame are presented for 1200 UT. In the summary ignored processes and future direction are discussed.     

Specific features of the technique of airborne gravity surveys at high latitudes

Specific features of the technique of airborne gravity surveys in the Arctic are considered. The main requirements for aerogravimetric complexes used for such surveys and for reference GPS stations located at high latitudes are formulated, as well as the conditions necessary for converting an aircraft into an aircraft-laboratory. Specific features of the planning of measurements of aerogravimetric profiles in the Arctic are described. The need in the operations necessary for the rapid estimation of the results is substantiated. The obtained regional gravimetric map on a 1:200000 scale is presented as an example.     

基态位涡径向分布对浅水涡旋系统动力稳定性的影响分析

本文基于正压浅水模型,分析基态位涡（Potential Vorticity：PV）结构对热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone：TC）类涡旋系统稳定性及其波动特征的影响.通过引入基态PV结构参数：宽度δ（眼墙内外边界涡度发生陡变的半径长度之比）和中空度γ（眼心相对涡度与内核区域平均相对涡度之比）,设计具有相同基流最大切向风速和最大风速半径的170组不同基态PV环结构的敏感性试验,并讨论了不同基态PV结构下涡旋系统最不稳定波数（the most unstable wavenumber：MUWN）和系统最不稳定模态（the most unstable mode of System：MUMS）的特征频率及其不稳定增长率的大小.结果指出：当PV环较宽,系统表现为低波数最不稳定,相应的MUMS为低频波且增长率小;当PV环较窄,系统表现为高波数不稳定,且PV环越实最不稳定波数越高;当PV环窄且空时,MUMS均为中高频波动,且不稳定增长率随PV环的宽度变窄和中空度变空而明显增大.分析典型PV结构下系统演变特征可知,当PV环较宽,MUMS表现为具有平衡约束的低频波动的线性不稳定特征;当PV环趋向窄且空时,MUMS的平衡性约束趋向弱化,同时不稳定增长表现为明显的指数型增长.进一步讨论系统内部非对称结构的形成和传播机制发现,对于弱不稳定的PV环来说,低波数波最不稳定的特征波动具有典型涡旋Rossby波特征;而对于强不稳定的PV环来说,高波数不稳定的特征波动混合波性质明显.     

Water vapour transport of the pre-monsoon period and the general performance of the Indian summer monsoon

The advective monthly mean transfer of water vapour in the layer below 700 mbar is investigated for India for the years 1962 to 1972 and for the months January to September. The average zonal and meridional components of the transfer of water vapour for India are obtained. They are further averaged for different combinations of the pre-monsoon months from January to May and are correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients for zonal transfer of water vapour are either negative or small positive for different combinations of the months mentioned above. The correlation coefficients for the meridional transfer of water vapour are positive. The maximum value is 0.74 for the March to May combination and is statistically significant at the 1% level.An extensive investigation is, therefore, made for the March to May averages of water vapour transfer for four broad regions of India. The parameters of water vapour transfer for these regions are compared with the threshold values and the prediction category, normal or drought, for the subsequent summer monsoon season is determined for all years. The correlation coefficient between the index of drought, as determined from parameters of water vapour transport and rainfall departure, is statistically significant at the 2% level.     

Probabilities of occurrence of large earthquakes in the Aegean and surrounding area during the period 1986–2006

Repeat times of large shocks are obtained for 17 seismic fracture zones of the Aegean and surrounding area, from times of historic and present century earthquakes. The mean standard deviation of the repeat times is approximately 50% of any one observation.A probabilistic approach is then used to forecast the likelihood of large future earthquakes in each fracture zone, using as input the time of the last large shock, the average repeat time and its standard deviation. Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes are examined separately. The calculated probabilities are high for the entire Hellenic arc, both for shallow and intermediate depth seismicity, for the area of Leucas island (Ionian), of Lesbos island (Aegean), for Patraikos-west Corinthiakos Gulfs, for Evoikos Gulf as well as for southern Bulgaria.The probability estimates based on the most recent large earthquakes, involve a number of basic physical assumptions and we would think that they provide a semi-stochastic approach to the problem of earthquake prediction in Greece.     

Cumulative demand of the earthquake ground motions in the near source

In this paper the effects of near‐fault earthquakes are investigated through the study of parameters related to both input energy and plastic cycles demand. Based on the results of two different regression analyses performed with 128 near‐fault and 122 far‐field registrations, respectively, the Cosenza and Manfredi adimensional Id index was found to be the best seismological parameter correlated to the number n and amplitude m of plastic cycles in the vicinity of the source as well as far from it. Analytical formulations for n,m and for the equivalent number of plastic cycles neq are proposed for near‐fault and far‐field regions. The study of Id and neq shows the tendency of such parameters to increase as the distance increases. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical modeling of relative variations in the critical frequencies of the ionospheric F region

Relative variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F, region are considered as one of the main sources of information about the characteristics of plasma inhomogeneities in the region of the main ionization maximum and as a substantial factor responsible for the statistics of the decameter signal parameters on radio paths with different lengths. The functions defined on finite intervals are also used in statistical modeling in addition to the available methods. Such a consideration made it possible to remove a restriction, peculiar to previous models, in the form of the requirement that the fourth statistical invariant—excess— should be positive. This makes the generalized statistical model more universal, which is of special importance for high4atitude radio paths. The specified mo del more adequately corresponds to the experimental data, which are characterized by finite intervals where the quantities are measured.     

陕西省十五形变台网数据质量评价

对陕西省十五形变台网2008—2009年的数据质量进行了评价。结果表明:陕西省十五形变台网数据质量较高,2009年数据完整率达99.43%,整个形变台网15个测项中有14个测项精度达到优秀,可以应用于地震预测预报及相关研究。并对提高数据质量提出了几点建议。     

Specific features of hydrological and morphological processes in the mouth area of the Mekong River

The geographical and hydrological features of the Mekong River basin and the nearshore zone of the South China Sea, which influence the hydrological regime of the Mekong River mouth, are discussed. Detailed characteristics are provided for the drainage system of the Mekong River mouth area, water flow distribution among the delta branches, processes of the delta submergence during floods, as well as propagation of tidal, surge-induced level fluctuations and seawater intrusion into the river. Regularities of the Holocene evolution of the Mekong River mouth area and recent processes of delta formation are also discussed.     

The Modified Mercalli intensity and the geometry of the sedimentary basin as scaling parameters of the frequency dependent duration of strong ground motion

Several new empirical equations of the frequency dependent duration of strong earthquake ground motion are presented. The duration is considered as being composed of two parts: (1) the duration of stong motion as it is observed at recording stations located on basement rocks, and (2) the prolongation of this duration for stations located on sediments. The first part, called the ‘basic duration’, is modelled in terms of the Modified Mercalli intensity and (in some cases) the hypocentral distance. The depth of the sediments under the station, the distance from the station to the rocks surrounding it, and the angular measure of the size of those rocks (as seen from the station) are chosen as the parameters for modelling the prolongation of the duration. The new empirical equations are compared (a) with each other, (b) with our previous models which used similar ‘prolongation’ terms, but the ‘basic duration’ was expressed in terms of the magnitude of the earthquake and the source-to-station distance, and (c) with models with ‘intensity-type’ ‘basic duration’, but with a simplified ‘prolongation’ term (the geological conditions at the stations are modeled by lumping all the sites into three groups: basement rock, sediments and intermediate geology). This collection of models is found to have good internal consistency. The choice of the proper model depends on the availability of the earthquake and site parameters. The residuals of the empirical regression equations are found to have similar distribution functions for all the models. An explicit functional form for such distributions is proposed, and the frequency dependent coefficients are found for all the models of duration. This allows one to predict (for each set of earthquake and site parameters) the probability of exceedance of any given level of duration of strong ground motion at a given frequency.     

A quantitative characterization of the seasonal Lagrangian circulation of the Gulf of California from a three-dimensional numerical model

A set of four indices that quantify Lagrangian properties of the Gulf of California seasonal circulation were implemented from outputs of a three-dimensional numerical model. From trajectories of particles seeded over the entire Gulf, we calculated for 12 one-month periods the following indices: net and total distance traveled by the particles, the number of particles that are found within an area centered on the release positions after one month, and time taken by particles to escape from a 50-km-radius circle. These indices can be used for studies on transport of inert properties and passive planktonic organisms such as eggs and early-stage larvae; their use is illustrated for typical summer and winter conditions in the Gulf of California. These indices show the potential for connecting areas separated by a few hundreds of km along the eastern side of the Gulf, due to the strong seasonal up-gulf and down-gulf current. In the Northern Gulf, large displacements occur at the borders of the basin-wide seasonally reversing eddy that dominates the large-scale circulation (cyclonic in summer, anticyclonic in winter). On the other hand, the potential for self-recruitment areas is found as particles can be trapped for longer than one month within these eddies, as well as in smaller ones in the Northern Gulf, and near the coast of the peninsular side of the Southern Gulf, where current speeds are slow and many small capes and islands are present.     

Prediction of the largest events in the sandpile model based on the earthquake precursors

Earthquake precursors used for earthquake prediction in the M8 algorithm [Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990a] are adapted to the sandpile grid model close to the Manna [1991] model. It is established that the adapted precursors are efficient for predicting the largest model earthquakes. However, as distinct from real seismicity, where activity outbursts often precede a large earthquake, the prediction of the model dynamics, is characterized by a certain quiescence.     

Geomorphological development of the eastern margin of the Australian Craton

The denudation chronologies of five uplands of contrasting geological structure located at the eastern margin of the Australian Craton are examined. They are the Isa Highlands, MacDonnell Ranges and Flinders Ranges (fold mountains, orogenic setting); the Arcoona Plateau (dissected plateau, platform setting); and the Gawler Ranges (massif of old silicic volcanics, cratonic setting). In each, surfaces of Mesozoic age, many of them exhumed and of pre-Cretaceous age, are preserved. Each also appears to have been uplifted recurrently. Each was either overwhelmed or bordered by the Early Cretaceous (Neocomian-Aptian) sea. Tectonism associated with the break-up of Gondwana probably allowed this important marine transgression. Thereafter, thalassostatic and erosional/depositional isostatic responses have maintained the uplands as uplands and the intervening basins as negative topographic and structural units; the pattern of topography has been constant for the last 60–100 Ma.