Wavelet Analysis on Solar Wind Parameters and Geomagnetic Indices

The geomagnetic activity is the result of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction. It varies following the basic 11-year solar cycle; yet shorter time-scale variations appear intermittently. We study the quasi-periodic behavior of the characteristics of solar wind (speed, temperature, pressure, density) and the interplanetary magnetic field (B _x , B _y , B _z , β, Alfvén Mach number) and the variations of the geomagnetic activity indices (D _ST, AE, A _p and K _p). In the analysis of the corresponding 14 time series, which span four solar cycles (1966?–?2010), we use both a wavelet expansion and the Lomb/Scargle periodograms. Our results verify intermittent periodicities in our time-series data, which correspond to already known solar activity variations on timescales shorter than the sunspot cycle; some of these are shared between the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices.     

The Floor in the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Revisited

Svalgaard and Cliver (Astrophys. J. Lett. 661, L203, 2007) proposed that the solar-wind magnetic-field strength [B] at Earth has a ??floor?? value of ??4.6 nT in yearly averages, which is approached but not broached at solar minima. They attributed the floor to a constant baseline solar open flux. In both 2008 and 2009, the notion of such a floor was undercut by annual B averages of ??4 nT. Here we present a revised view of both the level and the concept of the floor. Two independent correlations indicate that B has a floor of ??2.8 nT in yearly averages. These are i) a relationship between solar polar-field strength and yearly averages of B for the last four 11-year minima (B _MIN), and ii) a precursor relationship between peak sunspot number for cycles 14??C?23 and B _MIN at their preceding minima. These correlations suggest that at 11-year minima, B consists of i) a floor of ??2.8 nT, and ii) a component primarily due to the solar polar fields that varies from ??0 nT to ??3 nT. The solar polar fields provide the ??seed?? for the subsequent sunspot maximum. Removing the ??2.8 nT floor from B _MIN brings the percentage decrease in B between the 1996 and 2009 minima into agreement with the corresponding decrease in solar polar-field strength. Based on a decomposition of the solar wind (from 1972??C?2009) into high-speed streams, coronal mass ejections, and slow solar wind, we suggest that the source of the floor in B is the slow solar wind. During 2009, Earth was in slow solar-wind flows ??70% of the time. We propose that the floor corresponds to a baseline (non-cyclic or ground state) open solar flux of ??8×10¹³ Wb, which originates in persistent small-scale (supergranular and granular) field.     

Initial Venus Express magnetic field observations of the Venus bow shock location at solar minimum

In this study, magnetic field measurements obtained by the Venus Express spacecraft are used to determine the bow shock position at solar minimum. The best fit of bow shock location from solar zenith angle 20-120° gives a terminator bow shock location of 2.14 R_V (1 R_V=6052 km) which is 1600 km closer to Venus than the 2.40 R_V determined during solar maximum conditions, a clear indication of the solar cycle variation of the Venus bow shock location. The best fit to the subsolar bow shock is 1.32 R_V, with the bow shock completely detached. Finally, a global bow shock model at solar minimum is constructed based on our best-fit empirical bow shock in the sunlit hemisphere and an asymptotic limit of the distant bow shock which is a Mach cone under typical Mach number of 5.5 at solar minimum. We also describe our approach to making the measurements and processing the data in a challenging magnetic cleanliness environment. An initial evaluation of the accuracy of measurements shows that the data are of a quality comparable to magnetic field measurements made onboard magnetically clean spacecraft.     

The use of abnormal quiet days in Sq(H) for predicting the magnitude of sunspot maximum at the time of preceding sunspot minimum

The previously established connection between the occurence of AQDs (“abnormal quiet days” when the phase of the solar diurnal variation of horizontal magnetic field, Sq(H), at a mid-latitude northern hemisphere station is anomalous) at sunspot minimum and the magnitude of the following sunspot maximum is examined in the light of our recent improved understanding of the nature and cause of AQDs. A small contribution to the relationship is found to arise from variations from cycle to cycle in the additional northward field which is characteristic of AQDs and leads to a reduced Sq(H) amplitude at stations poleward of the Sq focus. However, the main factor which determines the connection is a variation from one sunspot minimum to another of the amplitude of the small southward bay-like field perturbations which constitute the AQD events, and evidence is presented which suggests that this parameter may be quantitatively related to the extent of southward swing of the B_z component of the interplanetary magnetic field which determines the energy transfer from the solar wind into the magnetospheric tail. It thus appears that the magnitude of southward swing in B_z might be another solar parameter which anticipates the size of a forthcoming sunspot cycle during its build-up over the declining phase of the previous cycle and at the minimum.     

Analysis of MDI High-Degree Mode Frequencies and their Rotational Splittings

We present a detailed analysis of solar acoustic mode frequencies and their rotational splittings for modes with degree up to 900. They were obtained by applying spherical harmonic decomposition to full-disk solar images observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft. Global helioseismology analysis of high-degree modes is complicated by the fact that the individual modes cannot be isolated, which has limited so far the use of high-degree data for structure inversion of the near-surface layers (r>0.97R _⊙). In this work, we took great care to recover the actual mode characteristics using a physically motivated model which included a complete leakage matrix. We included in our analysis the following instrumental characteristics: the correct instantaneous image scale, the radial and non-radial image distortions, the effective position angle of the solar rotation axis, and a correction to the Carrington elements. We also present variations of the mode frequencies caused by the solar activity cycle. We have analyzed seven observational periods from 1999 to 2005 and correlated their frequency shift with four different solar indices. The frequency shift scaled by the relative mode inertia is a function of frequency alone and follows a simple power law, where the exponent obtained for the p modes is twice the value obtained for the f modes. The different solar indices present the same result.     

A Study of the Solar Proton Flux Model

The solar proton event (SPE) may become a serious threat to the cosmonautical activities of human beings, so the prediction of the flux of solar protons within a certain period has important guiding significance for the projection of the anti-radiation solidification of space vehicles. On the basis of a statistical analysis of the data of SPEs in the 20th to 23rd cycles of solar activity, a new model of solar proton fluxes with E > 10 MeV and E > 30 MeV is established. In comparison with the JPL model, which is frequently adopted in the present aerospace engineering, the influence factor of solar activity on the occurrence of proton events is introduced, and it can be used to estimate the proton fluxes under various levels of solar activity. The results can better match the characteristics of the distribution of proton events.     

Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.     

Visibility-Graph Analysis of the Solar Wind Velocity

We analyze in situ measurements of the solar wind velocity obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the Helios spacecraft during the years 1998?–?2012 and 1975?–?1983, respectively. The data mainly belong to solar cycles 23 (1996?–?2008) and 21 (1976?–?1986). We used the directed horizontal-visibility-graph (DHVg) algorithm and estimated a graph functional, namely, the degree distance (D), which is defined using the Kullback–Leibler divergence (KLD) to understand the time irreversibility of solar wind time-series. We estimated this degree-distance irreversibility parameter for these time-series at different phases of the solar activity cycle. The irreversibility parameter was first established for known dynamical data and was then applied to solar wind velocity time-series. It is observed that irreversibility in solar wind velocity fluctuations show a similar behavior at 0.3 AU (Helios data) and 1 AU (ACE data). Moreover, the fluctuations change over the phases of the activity cycle.     

Real time Kp predictions from solar wind data using neural networks

Multilayer feed-forward neural network models are developed to make three-hour predictions of the planetary magnetospheric Kp index. The input parameters for the networks are the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field, the solar wind density n, and the solar wind velocity V, given as three-hour averages. The networks are trained with the error back-propagation algorithm on data sequences extracted from the 21^st solar cycle. The result is a hybrid model consisting of two expert networks providing Kp predictions with an RMS error of 0.96 and a correlation of 0.76 in reference to the measured Kp values. This result can be compared with the linear correlation between V(t) and Kp(t + 3 hours) which is 0.47. The hybrid model is tested on geomagnetic storm events extracted from the 22^nd solar cycle. The hybrid model is implemented and real time predictions of the planetary magnetospheric Kp index are available at http://www.astro.lu. se/-fredrikb.     

Effective recombination coefficient and solar zenith angle effects on low-latitude D-region ionosphere evaluated from VLF signal amplitude and its time delay during X-ray solar flares

Excess solar X-ray radiation during solar flares causes an enhancement of ionization in the ionospheric D-region and hence affects sub-ionospherically propagating VLF signal amplitude and phase. VLF signal amplitude perturbation (ΔA) and amplitude time delay (Δt) (vis-á-vis corresponding X-ray light curve as measured by GOES-15) of NWC/19.8 kHz signal have been computed for solar flares which is detected by us during Jan–Sep 2011. The signal is recorded by SoftPAL facility of IERC/ICSP, Sitapur (22^° 27′N, 87^° 45′E), West Bengal, India. In first part of the work, using the well known LWPC technique, we simulated the flare induced excess lower ionospheric electron density by amplitude perturbation method. Unperturbed D-region electron density is also obtained from simulation and compared with IRI-model results. Using these simulation results and time delay as key parameters, we calculate the effective electron recombination coefficient (α _eff ) at solar flare peak region. Our results match with the same obtained by other established models. In the second part, we dealt with the solar zenith angle effect on D-region during flares. We relate this VLF data with the solar X-ray data. We find that the peak of the VLF amplitude occurs later than the time of the X-ray peak for each flare. We investigate this so-called time delay (Δt). For the C-class flares we find that there is a direct correspondence between Δt of a solar flare and the average solar zenith angle Z over the signal propagation path at flare occurrence time. Now for deeper analysis, we compute the Δt for different local diurnal time slots DT. We find that while the time delay is anti-correlated with the flare peak energy flux ? _max independent of these time slots, the goodness of fit, as measured by reduced-χ ², actually worsens as the day progresses. The variation of the Z dependence of reduced-χ ² seems to follow the variation of standard deviation of Z along the T _x -R _x propagation path. In other words, for the flares having almost constant Z over the path a tighter anti-correlation between Δt and ? _max was observed.     

On the geometric flattening index of the solar corona

Values of the Nikol??skii geometric flattening index of the solar corona, H, have been collected for 77 total solar eclipses from 1860 to 2010. The dependence of the H index on the Wolf number and the phase of solar activity is studied. The H index is found to take values in the range 0.9 to 2.5 and to anticorrelate with solar activity: the maximum values of the index are observed at solar minima and the minimum values are observed at solar maxima. In addition, the correlations between the H index and the Ludendorff photometric flattening index a + b and between the H index and extent of polar ray systems along the limb are investigated.     

Variable solar wind

The solar wind in the heliosphere is a variable phenomenon on all spatial and time scales. It has been shown that there are two basic types of solar wind by the Strouhal number S = L/VT, which characterizes relative variations in the main parameters of the solar wind on the given time interval T and linear scale L for velocity V, which is never zero. The first type is transient (S > 1), which is usually the basic type for sufficiently small values of T and large values of L. The second type is quasi-stationary, when 1 > S > 0. The constant solar wind is nonexistent. The extreme case of S = 0 is physically impossible, as is the case of S = ∞. It is always necessary to indicate and justify the range of applicability for a special quasi-stationary case 1 ? S > 0. Otherwise, to consider the case of S = 0 is incorrect. Regarding this, the widely-spread views on the stationary state of the solar wind are very conditional. They either lack physical sense, or have a very limited range of applicability for time T and scale L.     

Solar activity dependence of trans-equatorial ion whistler

This paper describes occurrence probabilities and patterns of trans-equatorial proton (TEP), deuteron (TED) and helium (TEH) whistler from the ISIS-2 satellite in time compressed dynamic spectra. It is shown that the TEP whistlers have high occurrence probability in an active solar period, while the TED whistler has low occurrence probability. In a quiet solar period, the TEP whistler has a relatively lower occurrence probability than the TED whistler. The TEP whistler in a quiet solar period shows a strong seasonal variation. That is a higher occurrence probability in the winter than in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The curve of occurrence probability of the TED whistler has a valley (no occurrence) at the noon in a solar active period. The minimum occurrence probabilities, which depend on geomagnetic activity appear at about K_P = 4-5. These phenomena seem to be explained by using the bouncing surface diagram of multicomponent and inhomogeneous plasmas with various proton density. The spectral pattern of trans-equatorial ion whistlers and calculation of an approximate equation with regard to deuteron effect show that relative proton densities to electrons N_P/N_e decrease with increasing solar activity.     

On the dispersal of artificially-injected gases in the night-time atmosphere

We have studied the extent to which various transport processes affect the dispersal of a gas artificially injected into the night-time atmosphere at F-region altitudes. In addition to diffusion, we have found that nonlinear acceleration, viscous stress, and thermospheric winds affect the dispersal of the injected gas. The magnitude of the effect depends on the atmospheric density, which is a function of solar activity. For an injected H₂ gas, non-linear acceleration and viscous stress rapidly become more important than diffusion above about 300 km for low solar activity (T_∞ = 750K), 340 km for moderate solar activity (T_∞ = 1000K), and 400 km for high solar activity (T_∞ = 1500K). For an injected H₂O gas, the corresponding altitudes are 350, 400, and 470 km for low, moderate and high solar activity, respectively. The effect of nonlinear acceleration and viscous stress is to retard the expansion of the injected gas. Thermospheric winds of 150–400 m s^?1 are important at altitudes near and below the F-region peak electron density. These winds act to transport the injected gas in the wind direction and this affects the shape and temporal development of the subsequent ionospheric hole. Because the H₂O diffusion coefficient is smaller than the H₂ diffusion coefficient, winds are more important for H₂O than for H₂.     

Non-radial solar wind flows and IMF Bz during 1973-2003

The characteristics of latitudinal angles of solar wind flow (θ_v) observed near earth have been studied during the period 1973-2003. The average magnitude of θ_v shows distinct enhancements during the declining and maximum phases of the sunspot cycles. A close association of B_z component of IMF in the GSE system and the orientation of meridional flows in the solar wind is found which depends on the IMF sector polarity. This effect has been studied in typical geomagnetic storm periods. The occurrence of non-radial flows is also found to exhibit heliolatitudinal dependence during the years 1975 and 1985 as a characteristic feature of non-radial solar wind expansion from polar coronal holes.     

Geoactive zones in the solar wind

Three parameters of the solar wind, proton number density n, Z-component of frozen-in magnetic field, in solar ecliptic coordinates and magnetic field variability ΔB, may be called geoactive parameters since each of them is responsible for a certain phase or stage of a geomagnetic storm.An undisturbed solar corpuscular stream differs from the quiet solar wind mainly in higher bulk velocity v; other parameters, in particular, n, Z and ΔB, are not enhanced in the stream. However, the examination of a number of geomagnetic storms shows that v is not a geoactive parameter. Hence the corpuscular stream itself is not more geoactive than the quiet solar wind.The retarding of corpuscular stream by the quiet solar wind results in various plasma deformations (compression, torsion, shear). This, in turn, leads to the creation, in the stream and ambient quiet solar wind, of geoactive zones. Each zone is characterized by the enhancement of some geoactive parameter. The entry of the Earth into a geoactive zone causes a corresponding phase or stage of a geomagnetic storm.The concept of geoactive zones is applied to the analysis of the geomagnetic storm of 8–10 July 1966.     

Studying Sun–Planet Connections Using the Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO)

The Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO) is a software infrastructure involving a collection of web services, heliospheric data sources (e.g., solar, planetary, etc.), and event catalogues – all of which are accessible through a unified front end. In this paper we use the HELIO infrastructure to perform three case studies based on solar events that propagate through the heliosphere. These include a coronal mass ejection that intersects both Earth and Mars, a solar energetic particle event that crosses the orbit of Earth, and a high-speed solar wind stream, produced by a coronal hole, that is observed in situ at Earth (L1). A ballistic propagation model is run as one of the HELIO services and used to model these events, predicting if they will interact with a spacecraft or planet and determining the associated time of arrival. The HELIO infrastructure streamlines the method used to perform these kinds of case study by centralising the process of searching for and visualising data, indicating interesting features on the solar disk, and finally connecting remotely observed solar features with those detected by in situ solar wind and energetic particle instruments. HELIO represents an important leap forward in European heliophysics infrastructure by bridging the boundaries of traditional scientific domains.     

Interplanetary dust between 1 and 5 AU

Analyses of the data from the Meteoroid Detection Experiment (MDE) and the Imaging Photopolarimeter (IPP) aboard Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11 have led to contradictory conclusions. While the MDE indicates a significant particle environment in the outer solar system (out to at least 5 AU), the IPP sees no zodiacal light (therefore implying no small particles) past 3.3 AU. We reconcile the two results by noting that the spectral index, p [relating particle radius, s, and particle concentration, n(s), i.e., dn(s) = Cs^?pds], is not a constant in the solar system, but changes from p < 2 near 1 AU to p > 2.5 at 5 AU for particles in the range of 10 μm. The MDE value of p = 1.8 at 1 AU is in agreement with previous satellite measurements, while our earlier analysis of the Pioneer 10 Jovian encounter data indicated p > 2.5 at 5 AU. A joint analysis of the Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11 MDE data also indicates that p > 2.5 in the outer solar system. We show that a varying spectral index violates a major assumption used in the interpretation of the IPP data, which in turn had led to the conclusion that zodiacal dust is absent beyond 3.3 AU. With p a function of solar distance, the MDE data is now consistent with the IPP data, thus indicating a significant particle concentration in the outer solar system.