琉球-马尼拉海沟的构造背景及发震能力评估

琉球-马尼拉海沟属于西太平洋板块俯冲带,2011年3月11日日本地震的震中同样位于西太平洋板块俯冲带,前者是否与"3·11"地震具有相同的构造背景和条件,是评估琉球-马尼拉海沟是否同样具备发生9级地震潜在能力的关键因素。文中对大量资料进行了分析,对琉球-马尼拉海沟的构造背景、分段特征及最大潜在发震能力进行了评估,认为琉球海沟属于海沟-岛弧-弧后盆地俯冲构造体系,岛弧与海沟处于向E后退的状态,表现为弱耦合特征,构造上可分为6个破裂段,最大潜在地震为8.5级;马尼拉海沟受古扩张洋脊形成俯冲板块中的"板片窗"影响,长度及规模远小于目前已发生9级以上地震的俯冲带,构造上可分为6个破裂段,最大潜在地震为8.8级。综合结果分析认为,琉球-马尼拉海沟无论是在构造背景还是规模上都与日本"3·11"地震的构造样式存在较大差异。     

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

设定琉球海沟发生罕遇地震评估我国东南沿海地区的海啸风险

根据构造相似条件分析,琉球海沟与日本海沟、智利海沟、印尼巽他海沟一样具备发生9级罕遇超巨大地震的可能。在对近几年来全球发生的超巨大地震参数及构造对比分析的基础上,设定琉球海沟9.0级地震参数,并将其引发的海啸进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,该地震可引发初始波高为8m的海啸,台湾东北部半小时后遭受10m以上海啸,3~4小时左右传至浙南、闽北沿岸,近岸各处波高在1~2m;5小时左右传至浙北、粤北沿岸,浙江近岸各处波高在2m左右,广东沿海、台湾海峡由于台湾岛的正面阻挡,海啸波高低于50cm;8小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波高约1m。海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关,我国东南海域地形变化复杂、海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,模拟结果可能比实际海啸偏小。我国沿海地区分布着不少已建和在建的核电厂,在核电设计时未考虑海啸,一旦发生这种罕遇地震海啸则影响不可忽视,尤其是若与风暴潮、天文大潮叠加则可能出现严重后果。由于核电安全要求万无一失,故须制订有效预警和应对措施。     

海沟后退对地幔对流的影响

本文分析了有海底扩张无海沟后退、有海沟后退无海底扩张以及海底扩张与海沟后退共存等３种情况下,俯冲板片运动与海沟迁移的关系．用幂律流体有限元方法计算海沟后退对地幔对流的影响．地幔有效粘度除依赖应力偏张量的第二不变量以外,尚与温度、压力（含流体静压力和流动压力）有关．计算表明,对流环、高流动负压区以及低粘区的个数和位置,均受控于海沟是否后退以及海底是否扩张;温度场与海沟后退无明显关系．流动压力对形成洋中脊和弧后火山、驱动地幔对流以及维持板片的倾斜角度都具有重要意义．     

海沟后退对地幔对流的影响

本文分析了有海底扩张无海沟后退、有海沟后退无海底扩张以及海底扩张与海沟后退共存等３种情况下，俯冲板片运动与海沟迁移的关系．用幂律流体有限元方法计算海沟后退对地幔对流的影响．地幔有效粘度除依赖应力偏张量的第二不变量以外，尚与温度、压力（含流体静压力和流动压力）有关．计算表明，对流环、高流动负压区以及低粘区的个数和位置，均受控于海沟是否后退以及海底是否扩张；温度场与海沟后退无明显关系．流动压力对形成洋中脊和弧后火山、驱动地幔对流以及维持板片的倾斜角度都具有重要意义．     

马尼拉海沟俯冲带板缘地震特征及衰减关系研究

俯冲带通常位于陆地板块与海洋板块或者海洋板块之间的交界处,地质构造复杂,地震活动频繁.在南海海域,马尼拉海沟俯冲带对中国海洋战略及近海重大工程的实施位置至关重要.在缺少实际地震数据的前提下,为分析马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震动及其衰减关系特征,通过采用随机有限断层法模拟该俯冲带地震动,分析地震动加速度时程及反应谱特点,同时分别...     

东亚大陆的地震迁移（一）──从西太平洋海沟到中国大陆内部的巨震及火山活动迁移

本研究揭示了一个长达一个多世纪的大震迁移系列──１７世纪到１８世纪初期，大地震从西太平洋海沟到中国大陆内部的横向迁移，历时约１３４年，距离约２６００ｋｍ，速度约为１９ｋｍ／ａ，迁移方向与板块俯冲方向一致，与板块边界走向垂直．迁移有两个分支：一支向西终止于大陆中央经向带（贺兰山－六盘山断裂带），触发了华北历史上最强大的地震活动幕，构成“Ｓ”形迁移迹线，包括４次Ｍ≥８．０地震；另一支向北经过朝鲜半岛，终止于中国黑龙江省北部，触发了长白山和五大莲池的火山喷发活动．迁移的时－空间线性度良好，速度稳定，并逐渐衰减．推测与海沟板块俯冲突然加速引起软流圈物质的扰动有关．     

浅析江淮区中强震活动与琉球弧强震活动的相关性

江淮地震区地处我国东部地区,属于5-6级地震为主的中强震活动区,琉球弧地处西太平洋地震带的西支,属于7级以上地震为主的强震活动区。本文运用列表和回归分析法对江淮区中强震活动和琉球弧强震活动的相关性进行了分析。结果表明,两者之间的相关性较好,对应率达80％,其平均滞后时间在18个月。并且讨论了产生相关性的原因。分析结论可能对江淮区中强震的中期预报具有一定的作用。     

Normal faults in an accretionary complex formed at trench-trench-ridge triple junction, as an indicator of angle between the trench and subducted ridge

Abstract Normal faults parallel to the trend of an active ridge are formed in the accretionary prism at trench-trench-ridge triple junction, due to continuous spreading of the subducted ridge. Normal faults are observed in the Nabae and Mugi sub-belts, accretionary zones formed by ridge subduction in the Shimanto Belt. Igneous and sedimentary dykes intrude through the previous normal faults. Using these fault and dyke data, intermediate principal axis of stress relating to the normal faulting is determined, and is fitted to the trend of the subducted ridge. Normal faults formed by ridge subduction are useful for plate reconstruction.     

Seismicity and stress field in Okinawa Trough and Ryukyu regions

（黄培华）（苏维加）（陈金波）ＳｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙａｎｄｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄｉｎＯｋｉｎａｗａＴｒｏｕｇｈａｎｄＲｙｕｋｙｕｒｅｇｉｏｎｓ￥Ｐｅｉ－ＨｕａＨＵＡＮＧ；Ｗｅｉ－ｊｉａＳＵａｎｄＪｉｎ－ＢｏＣＨＥＮ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＥａｒｔｈａ...     

Earthquake migration in East Asia mainland (I)—The migration of huge earthquakes and volcanic activity from West Pacific Trench to the Chinese mainland

The researches in this paper disclose a huge earthquake migration series that lasted more than one century—from the 17th century to the early day of the 18th, transverse migration of huge earthquake from West Pacific trench to the Chinese mainland, lasted about 134 a, the distance is about 2600 km, the velocity is about 19 km/a, and the direction of migration agrees with the direction of plate subduction and vertical to the strike of plate boundary. The migration has two branches. One extends westwards and terminates at the central longitude belt (Helanshan—Liupanshan fault zone) of the Chinese mainland, triggered the strongest seismicity episode in North China, including 4 earthquakes withM ⩾8.0. The other extends northwards, passing through Korea Peninsula, terminates at the north part of Heilongjian Province, and triggered the volcanic eruption activity in Changbaishan and Wudalianchi. The time-space linearity of migration is good. Its velocity is stable and its activity attenuates gradually. It is estimated that it is related with the disturbance of asthenosphere matters caused by the sudden acceleration of the subduction of the trench plate. There are two similar transverse migration series from 1498 to 1556 and from 1843 to 1927, and the velocities are 36.2 and 33.7 km/a respectively.     

2004~2006年奄美大岛以东的琉球海流

基于2004~2006年12个航次的水文资料,用逆方法计算得到了奄美大岛以东AE断面琉球海流的流速和体积流量.再次证实琉球海流具有较稳定的次表层流核结构,流核位于110～600 m深度,并沿AE线分布于27.2°～28.2°N,流核的最大流速为15.1～80.0 cm·s-1. 12个航次的平均流速断面显示了一个完整的次表层流核,其流核的最大流速为21.3 cm·s-1, 流核的垂直和水平尺度分别为800 m 和 30 km. 观测结果表明,2004~2006年之间,琉球海流冬季、春季、夏季、秋季和年平均的流量分别为10.9,10.1,5.9,23.9和12.7×106 m3·s-1,秋季最强,夏季最弱.日本以南黑潮净流量为52.7×106 m3·s-1, 其中源于吐噶喇海峡黑潮和琉球海流的流量平均比为0.40.     

Autumn intensification of the Ryukyu Current during 2003-2007

Inverse calculations using data from 16 repeat hydrographic transects collected from April 2003 to June 2007 have yielded velocity structures and volume transports(VTs) of the Ryukyu Current in the region east of the northern Ryukyu Islands.The inverse calculation results show that the Ryukyu Current is dominated by a subsurface velocity core with maximum velocities from 15.1 to 80.0 cm/s,whose positions vary between 110 and 600 dbar and 27.2°-28.2°N along the transect.The mean velocity exhibits a subsurface velocity core with a maximum value of 24.6 cm/s at 326 dbar depth,a VT of 14.0 Sv(1 Sv≡106 m3/s),a vertical dimension of 800 m,and a horizontal dimension of 60 km.The seasonal mean velocities show that the Ryukyu Current is stronger in autumn than in other seasons.It is suggested that this seasonal variation is coincident with the intensification of the anticyclonic eddy south of Shikoku,Japan.     

Characterization of magnetic particles and magnetostratigraphic dating of shallow-water carbonates in the Ryukyu Islands, northwestern Pacific

Abstract   Characterization of magnetic particles, and magnetostratigraphic dating, of Holocene and Pleistocene shallow-water carbonates (the Ryukyu Group) in the Ryukyu Islands was carried out to infer the age of reef formation. Magnetic particles from these strata are dominated by fine-grained, single-domain magnetite/maghemite (40–140 nm in length). The magnetite crystals exhibit the size and morphologies characteristic of the magnetite formed by magnetotactic bacteria. No large multidomain grains were seen in transmission electron microscopy observations. The widespread presence of single-domain magnetite in the Ryukyu Islands suggests that bacterial magnetites carry depositional remanent magnetization, which is stable enough for magnetostratigraphic dating and thereby for elucidating the evolution of shallow-water carbonates. The polarity-reversal sequence seen in a core taken from the Ryukyu Group correlates with the timescale of the Matuyama chron, including the Jaramillo subchron, Kamikatsura or Santa Rosa Excursions, through the Brunhes chron. These magnetostratigraphic results imply that the time of reef initiation in the Ryukyu Islands of the northwestern Pacific was earlier than in the Great Barrier Reef of the southwestern Pacific, where it started after the Brunhes–Matuyama boundary.     

Strain segmentation and lateral membrane deformation rate of the subducted Ryukyu slab

Abstract Focal mechanisms of intermediate-depth earthquakes within the subducted Ryukyu slab indicate a systematic pattern of down-dip extension in the northern part under Kyushu. These mechanisms switch rapidly around the Tokara channel to down-dip compression in the southern part toward Taiwan. This intriguing pattern of strain segmentation, together with the differences between the slab geometry of the northern and southern parts, has raised the question of whether stress segmentation, as defined possibly by a tear fault, might exist in the slab. However the Ryukyu trench has a concave oceanward shape in the northern segment while it is convex in the southern oceanward part toward Taiwan. The inflection zone is located around the Tokara channel. The concept of Gaussian curvature of a curved surface suggests that the along-arc variation of the geometric configuration of a subducted slab is related to the shape of the trench. This is in order to accommodate the lateral membrane deformation of the slab as the oceanic lithosphere subducts from a spherical shell to the geometry delineated by the Wadati-Benioff zone. The membrane deformation regime of the subducted Ryukyu slab and its relation with the trench geometry was examined by assuming that the subduction be modelled by the flow field of a thin viscous sheet. A projection operator was utilized to compute the membrane strain-rate tensor of an arbitrary non-Euclidean surface. Numerical experiments indicated that the northern segment of the slab was dominated by lateral compression and down-dip extension and the southern part by lateral extension and down-dip compression. This transition is sharply located near the Tokara channel. These patterns were compatible with what had been observed from studies of focal mechanisms, suggesting that the strain segmentation might be controlled, at least in part, by the lateral membrane deformation within the slab due to the trench shape in this subduction zone. The slab geometry was predicted by minimizing the integrated total dissipation power; this revealed distinct features that were consistent with observations. This implies that the slab geometry may also be affected by the membrane deformation in a systematic fashion.