A resource-based framework for establishing freshwater inflow requirements for the Suwannee River estuary

The availability of methods for establishing freshwater inflow requirements for estuaries lags behind those for establishing flow requirements in riverine ecosystems. Some of the basic principles and approaches for establishing riverine flow requirements may be applicable to estuaries. An emerging approach for establishing freshwater inflow needs for the Suwannee River estuary involves maintaining a natural inflow regime (in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing of freshwater flows) and identifying important habitat targets to be protected. The salinity-river flow conditions needed to sustain the habitat targets in their existing condition are then identified. A variety of tools are employed, such as salinity metrics, biological metrics, limits of distribution of communities or habitats, and landscape-scale characteristics to define the salinity and corresponding flow ranges needed to protect and maintain the resource targets. With this information, combined with use of models to evaluate flow-salinity relationships and various withdrawal scenarios, river flow criteria can be set which address the freshwater inflow requirements to maintain these ranges. Subsequentmonitoring and research is undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of the river flow criteria in protecting the estuarine resource targets. This information can be used to subsequently confirm, refine, or modity the flow criteria.     

A method to assess the freshwater inflow requirements of estuaries and application to the Mtata estuary, South Africa

The National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) in South Africa recognizes basic human water requirements as well as the need to sustain the country's freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in a healthy condition for present as well as future generations. In this Act, provision is made for a water reserve to be estimated prior to the authorization of water use (e.g., for agriculture, large volume residential and industrial uses) through licensing. This reserve is the water required to satisfy basic human needs (i.e., 25 1 person^?1 d^?1) and to protect aquatic ecosystems to ensure present and future sustainable use of the resource. This led the Departments of Water Affairs and Forestry and estuarine scientists throughout South Africa to develop a method to determine the freshwater inflow requirements of estuaries. The method includes documenting the geographical boundaries of the estuary and determining estuarine health by comparing the present state of the estuary with a predicted reference condition with the use of an Estuarine Health Index. The importance of the estuary as an ecosystem is taken from a national rating system and together with the present health is used to set an Ecological Reserve Category for the estuary. This category represents the level of protections afforded to an estuary. Freshwater is then reserved to maintain the estuary in that Ecological Reserve Category. The Reserve, the quantity and quality of freshwater required for the estuary, is determined using an approach where realistic future river runoff scenarios are assessed, together with data for present state and reference conditions, to evaluate the extent to which abiotic and biotic conditions within an estuary are likely to vary with changes in river inflow. Results from these evaluations are used to select an acceptable river flow scenario that represents the highest reduction in freshwater inflow that will still protect the aquatic ecosystem of the estuary and keep it in the desired Ecological Reserve Category. The application of the Reserve methodology to the Mtata estuary is described.     

Projected Reorganization of Florida Bay Seagrass Communities in Response to the Increased Freshwater Inflow of Everglades Restoration

Historic changes in water-use management in the Florida Everglades have caused the quantity of freshwater inflow to Florida Bay to decline by approximately 60% while altering its timing and spatial distribution. Two consequences have been (1) increased salinity throughout the bay, including occurrences of hypersalinity, coupled with a decrease in salinity variability, and (2) change in benthic habitat structure. Restoration goals have been proposed to return the salinity climates (salinity and its variability) of Florida Bay to more estuarine conditions through changes in upstream water management, thereby returning seagrass species cover to a more historic state. To assess the potential for meeting those goals, we used two modeling approaches and long-term monitoring data. First, we applied the hydrological mass balance model FATHOM to predict salinity climate changes in sub-basins throughout the bay in response to a broad range of freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Second, because seagrass species exhibit different sensitivities to salinity climates, we used the FATHOM-modeled salinity climates as input to a statistical discriminant function model that associates eight seagrass community types with water quality variables including salinity, salinity variability, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and ammonium, as well as sediment depth and light reaching the benthos. Salinity climates in the western sub-basins bordering the Gulf of Mexico were insensitive to even the largest (5-fold) modeled increases in freshwater inflow. However, the north, northeastern, and eastern sub-basins were highly sensitive to freshwater inflow and responded to comparatively small increases with decreased salinity and increased salinity variability. The discriminant function model predicted increased occurrences of Halodule wrightii communities and decreased occurrences of Thalassia testudinum communities in response to the more estuarine salinity climates. The shift in community composition represents a return to the historically observed state and suggests that restoration goals for Florida Bay can be achieved through restoration of freshwater inflow from the Everglades.     

The effect of freshwater inflow on meiofaunal and macrofaunal populations in the Guadalupe and Nueces Estuaries,Texas

Two estuaries with very different inflow characteristics were compared to test the hypothesis that benthic standing crops are enhanced by freshwater inflow. Assuming predation pressure is similar in both estuaries, this would imply that freshwater inflow enhances secondary production. The Guadalupe Estuary had 79 times more freshwater inflow than the Nueces Estuary, and a third of the salinity. The Guadalupe had higher macrofaunal densities and biomass than the Nueces, and both parameters increased with decreasing salinity within the Guadalupe Estuary. Macrofauna density increased with increasing salinity in the Nueces Estuary, due to invasion by marine species. However, meiofauna population size responds differently than macrofauna. Meiofaunal densities were higher in the low-inflow Nueces Estuary, and increased with increasing salinity in both estuaries. Macrofauna diversity increased with salinity, both within and between estuaries. The macrofauna response supports the hypothesis that increased freshwater inflow stimulates secondary production. A review of past benthic studies in these estuaries and the historical climatic patterns indicate that wet years with high inflow result in increased macrofaunal productivity. Since, macrofaunal diversity decreased with lower salinity both within and between the estuaries, the enhanced productivity is due to increases by freshwater and estuarine species that can tolerate low salinities. Increased macrofaunal densities are associated with decreasing meiofaunal densities. The latter result could be due to either increased macrofaunal competition with or predation on meiofauna, or a lack of low-salinity tolerance by meiofauna.     

The calculation of estuarine turnover times using freshwater fraction and tidal prism models: A critical evaluation

Freshwater fraction and tidal prism models are simple methods for estimating the turnover time of estuarine water. The freshwater fraction method prominently features flushing by freshwater inflow and has sometimes been criticized because it appears not to include flushing by seawater, but this is accounted for implicitly because the average estuary salinity used in the calculation reflects all the processes that bring seawater into the estuary, including gravitational circulation and tidal processes. The model relies on measurable salinity differences among water masses and so must be used for estuaries with substantial freshwater inflow. Tidal prism models are based on flushing by flood tide inflow and ignore seawater inflow due to gravitational circulation. These models should only be applied to estuaries with weak or nonexistent gravitational circulation, which are generally those with little freshwater inflow. Using a framework that is less ambioguous and more directly applicable to the estimation of turnover times than those used previously, this paper critically examines the application of tidal prism models in well-mixed estuaries with complete tidal exchange, partial ebb return, or incomplete flood mixing and in partially mixed estuaries. Problems with self-consistency in earlier versions of these models also apply to the budgeting procedure used by the LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) program. Although freshwater fraction and tidal prism models are different approaches to estimating turnover times in systems with very different characteristics, consistent derivation shows that these models have much in common with each other and that they yield equivalent values that can be used to make comparisons across systems.     

Spatial and temporal variability and drivers of net ecosystem metabolism in western Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) is becoming a commonly used ecological indicator of estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates. Estuarine ecosystem processes are spatially and temporally variable, but the corresponding variability in NEM has not been properly assessed. Spatial and temporal variability in NEM was assessed in four western Gulf of Mexico shallow water estuaries. NEM was calculated from high-frequency dissolved oxygen measurements. Interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales were assessed for NEM, gross primary production (GPP), and respiration (R) rate variability. Seasonal, monthly, and daily temporal scales in NEM, GPP, and R were also assessed. Environmental conditions were then compared to NEM to determine which factors were correlated with each temporal and spatial scale. There was significant NEM spatial variability on interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales. Significant spatial variability was ephemeral, so it was difficult to ascertain which environmental conditions were most influential at each spatial scale. Significant temporal variability in NEM on seasonal, monthly, and daily scales was found and it was correlated to temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow, respectively. NEM correlated strongly with dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, but the relationships where different in each bay. The dynamics of NEM on daily scales indicate that freshwater inflow events may be the main driver of NEM in the semiarid estuaries studied. The variable nature of NEM found here is further evidence that it is not valid to use single station monitoring deployments for assessment of whole estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates in large ecosystems. The relationship between NEM and temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow events could drive predictive models assessing the potential influence of projected climate change and watershed development scenarios on estuarine metabolic rates.     

Review and assessment of biotic variables and analytical methods used in estuarine inflow studies

Published and gray literature, and works in progress, were reviewed to identify biotic variables and analytical methods used in studying freshwater inflow needs of estuaries. Landings, CPUE, and other measures of single-species abundance are most often used, especially for shellfish and finfish. These efforts work best when biomass is used and lag times are allowed for recruitment, but neither method is always used, and most efforts have assumed that physical habitat availability is constant. Efforts employing habitat and community-level variables are used less often but more recent attempts are using dynamic as well as stationary definitions of habitat. Even stationary habitat methods have given less attention to tidal freshwater and brackish estuarine reaches, than to other reaches. Natural long-period climate cycles (El Ninõ Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) are not factored into most inflow studies. Three promising approaches are encouraged; a mixture of variables representing different levels of ecological organization should be used, the natural non-linear geometry of estuaries (especially tidal rivers) should be exploited to identify critical thresholds of inflow, and the validity of using instream flow methods to calculate estuarine requirements by proxy should be determined.     

Nekton community change along estuarine salinity gradients: Can salinity zones be defined?

Organisms tend to inhabit predictable portions of estuaries along salinity gradients between the ocean inlets (salinity > 35 psu) and the freshwater tributaries (salinity = 0). Previous studies have suggested that the continuous change in biological community structure along this gradient is relatively rapid at certain salinities. This is the basis for estuarine salinity zonation schemes similar to the classic Venice System (i.e., 0–0.5, 0.5–5, 5–18, 18–30, 30–40, > 40). An extensive database (n > 16,000 samples) of frequency of occurrence of nekton was used to assess evidence for estuarine salinity zones in two southwest Florida estuaries: Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Rapid change in nekton community structure occurred at each end of the estuarine salinity gradient, with comparatively slow (but steady) change in between. There was little strong evidence for estuarine salinity zones at anything other than low salinities (0.1–1). As previously suggested by other authors, estuaries may be regarded as ecoclines, because they form areas of relatively slow but progressive ecological change. The ends of the estuarine salinity gradient appear to be ecotones (areas of rapid change) at the interfaces with adjacent freshwater and marine habitats. This study highlights the rapid change that occurs in nekton community structure at low salinities, which is of relevance to those managing freshwater inflow to estuaries.     

A percent-of-flow approach for managing reductions of freshwater inflows from unimpounded rivers to Southwest Florida estuaries

The Southwest Florida Water Management District has implemented a management approach for unimpounded rivers that limits withdrawals to a percentage of streamflow at the time of withdrawal. The natural flow regime of the contributing river is considered to be the baseline for assessing the effects of withdrawals. Development of the percent-of-flow approach has emphasized the interaction of freshwater inflow with the overlap of stationary and dynamic habitat components in tidal river zones of larger estuarine systems. Since the responses of key estuarine characteristics (e.g., isohaline locations, residence times) to freshwater inflow are frequently nonlinear, the approach is designed to prevent impacts to estuarine resources during sensitive low-inflow periods and to allow water supplies to become gradually more uvailable as inflow increases. A high sensitivity to variation at low inflow extends to many invertebrates and fishes that move upstream and downstream in synchrony with inflow. Total numbers of estuarine-resident and estuarine-dependent organisms have been found to decrease during low-inflow periods, including mysids, grass shrimp, and juveniles of the bay anchovy and sand seatrout. The interaction of freshwater inflow with seasonal processes, such as phytoplankton production and the recruitment of fishes to the tidal-river nursery, indicates that withdrawal percentages during the springtime should be most restrictive. Ongoing efforts are oriented toward refining percentage withdrawal limits among seasons and flow ranges to account for shifts in the responsiveness of estuarine processes to reductions in freshwater inflow.     

Methods for determining minimum freshwater inflow needs of Texas bays and estuaries

In response to legislative directives beginning in 1975, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) jointly established and currently maintain a data collection and analytical study program focused on determining the effects of and needs for freshwater inflows into the state's 10 bay and estuary systems. Study elements include hydrographic surveys, hydrodynamic modeling of circulation and salinity patterns, sediment analyses, nutrient analyses, fisheries analyses, freshwater inflow optimization modeling, and verification of needs. For determining the needs, statistical regression models are developed among freshwater inflows, salinities, and coastal fisheries. Results from the models and analyses are placed into the Texas Estuarine Mathematical Programming (TxEMP) model, along with information on salinity viability limits, nutrient budgets, fishery biomass ratios, and inflow bounds. The numerical relationships are solved within the constraints and limits, and optimized to meet state management objectives for maintenance of biological productivity and overall ecological health. Solution curves from the TxEMP model are verified by TWDB’s hydrodynamic simulation of estuarine circulation and salinity structure, which is evaluated against TPWD’s analysis of species abundance and distribution patterns in each bay and estuary system. An adequate system-wide match initially verifies the inflow solution. Long-term monitoring is recommended in order to verify that implementation of future water management strategies maintain ecological health of the estuaries and to provide an early warning of needs for adaptive management strategies.     

Freshwater inflow: Science, policy, management

The papers in this special issue were presented in a special session during the 2001 biennial conference of the Estuarine Research Federation held in St. Pete Beach, Florida. The session, “Freshwater inflow: Science, policy and management,” was focused on issues related to reduced freshwater inflow to estuaries. The session brought together scientists, managers, and regulators, and included presentations on the estimation of freshwater input to estuaries, development of ecological indicators to assess changes in inflow, management strategies used to set freshwater requirements, and experiences with the reintroduction of freshwater to restore inflow.     

Challenges and strategies for better use of scientific information in the management of coastal estuaries

Numerous studies have concluded that better use of scientific information could improve the quality of coastal and estuarine environmental management. Approaches for effecting such a change include ecosystem-based, integrated, and adaptive management, but such basic re-orientation of estuarine and coastal management has proved difficult to achieve. Even environmental indicators, seemingly straightforward ways of injecting scientific information into decision making, have achieved broad on-the-ground use in relatively few instances—principally the largest estuary management programs. A conceptual framework useful for examining environmental management systems affecting the five PNCERS (Pacific Northwest coastal Ecosystems Regional Study) estuaries conceives of environmental managers, researchers, and interested and affected parties in the public as interacting through the multi-layered institutional arrangements that currently promote the utilization, management, or protection of coastal and estuarine resources. Considerable variation exists in the approach and effectiveness of the region's environmental management organizations. Interaction between science and management in the region appears to be limited to an extent by high transaction costs; a cultural divide between environmental scientists and environmental managers is perceived by members of both groups who work with the PNCERS estuaries as inhibiting communications between them. Mechanisms that both groups identify as useful for improving the flow of information between science and management are little used, perhaps as a result. The two groups have very different patterns of information dissemination and acquisition, and though both chose agency archives and databases as their top methods for disseminating information, neither group relies much on these vehicles for information they seek. Both residents' and practitioners' perceptions of threats to the PNCERS estuaries show patterns of estuary-to-estuary variation. One theme that emerges is that problems associated with poor land management in adjacent uplands are common to most of these estuaries, potentially providing a sense of commonality through which a more regional approach to estuary management could emerge. A common set of estuarine environmental indicators implemented for all estuaries could help instigate such a regional approach, but resource constraints, especially at the local level, will have to be overcome for that to occur. There is currently substantial lack of common vision among coastal practitioners as to the purpose and desirability of indicators, and relatively little experience or knowledge of their use, particularly at the local level. Use of estuarine science in the management of these estuaries appears to be greatest during periods in which the largest programmatic shifts in environmental management approaches occur, an observation consistent with other studies that have concluded that the use of environmental science in environmental management tends to be episodic.     

The Arctic Ocean Estuary

Large freshwater contributions to the Arctic Ocean from a variety of sources combine in what is, by global standards, a remarkably small ocean basin. Indeed, the Arctic Ocean receives ∼11% of global river discharge while accounting for only ∼1% of global ocean volume. As a consequence, estuarine gradients are a defining feature not only near-shore, but throughout the Arctic Ocean. Sea-ice dynamics also play a pivotal role in the salinity regime, adding salt to the underlying water during ice formation and releasing fresh water during ice thaw. Our understanding of physical–chemical–biological interactions within this complex system is rapidly advancing. However, much of the estuarine research to date has focused on summer, open water conditions. Furthermore, our current conceptual model for Arctic estuaries is primarily based on studies of a few major river inflows. Future advancement of estuarine research in the Arctic requires concerted seasonal coverage as well as a commitment to working within a broader range of systems. With clear signals of climate change occurring in the Arctic and greater changes anticipated in the future, there is good reason to accelerate estuarine research efforts in the region. In particular, elucidating estuarine dynamics across the near-shore to ocean-wide domains is vital for understanding potential climate impacts on local ecosystems as well as broader climate feedbacks associated with storage and release of fresh water and carbon.     

Geographic signatures of North American West Coast estuaries

West Coast estuaries are geologically young and composed of a variety of geomorphological types. These estuaries range from large fjords to shallow lagoons; from large to low freshwater flows. Natural hazards include E1 Niños, strong Pacific storms, and active tectonic activity. West Coast estuaries support a wide range of living resources: five salmon species, harvestable shellfish, waterfowl and marine birds, marine mammals, and a variety of algae and plants. Although populations of many of these living resources have declined (salmonids), others have increased (marine mammals). West Coast estuaries are also centers of commerce and increasingly large shipping traffic. The West Coast human population is rising faster than most other areas of the U.S. and Canada, and is distributed heavily in southern California, the San Francisco Bay area, around Puget Sound, and the Fraser River estuary. While water pollution is a problem in many of the urbanized estuaries, most estuaries do not suffer from poor water quality. Primary estuarine problems include habitat alterations, degradation, and loss; diverted freshwater flows; marine sediment contamination; and exotic species introductions. The growing West Coast economy and population are in part related to the quality of life, which is dependent on the use and enjoyment of abundant coastal natural resources.     

Is Salinity Variability a Benthic Disturbance in Estuaries?

Freshwater inflow is a driver of the functioning of estuaries, and average salinity is usually measured to identify the effects of inflow in salinity-zone habitats. However, salinity variability could act as a disturbance by producing unstable habitats, leading to the question: is salinity variance an indicator of benthic disturbance, and therefore a driver of community stability? The macrofauna communities of five estuaries that lie in a climatic gradient on the Texas coastline were analyzed using a 26-year data set. Comparisons within and between estuaries with different inflow regimes were used as a natural experiment to simulate press disturbance events (i.e., climatic inflow) and pulse disturbance (i.e., floods) in maintaining community stability. Salinity average and variance was compared with benthic community diversity, evenness, and species richness. Salinity variance was more correlated to benthic diversity for each estuarine system (r?=??0.6610; p?=?0.0015) than average salinity (r?=?0.3818; p?=?0.0967). As salinity variance decreased (i.e., stability increased), diversity levels of benthic communities increased, and areas with mgore freshwater inflow displayed lower levels of benthic diversity. These findings advance a component of the general theory of diversity maintenance that persistent stressors, such as salinity variability, can influence diversity.     

Comparison of Estuarine Salinity Gradients and Associated Nekton Community Change in the Lower St. Johns River Estuary

Salinity is an important determinant of estuarine faunal composition; previous studies, however, have indicated conflicting accounts of continuous vs. relatively rapid change in community structure at certain salinities from geographically distinct estuaries. This study uses a large fisheries monitoring database (n?>?5,000 samples) to explore evidence for estuarine salinity zonation by nekton in the lower St. Johns River estuary (LSJR). There was little evidence to support the presence of estuarine salinity zones except at the extremes of the salinity gradient (i.e., 0.1?C1.0 and 34?C39). The LSJR estuarine nekton community exhibits progressively slow ecological change throughout most of the salinity gradient with rapid change at the interfaces with fresh and marine waters??an ecoline bounded by ecotones. This study affirms the rapid change that occurs at the extremes of the salinity spectrum in certain estuaries and is relevant to efforts to manage surface water resources and estuarine ecosystems. Given the disparity in the results of the studies examining biological salinity zones in estuaries, it would be wise to have, at minimum, a regional understanding of how communities are structured along the gradient from freshwater to marine.     

Of manatees, mangroves, and the Mississippi River: Is there an estuarine signature for the Gulf of Mexico?

Important parameters of estuarine variability include morphology, flushing times, nutrient loading rates, and wetland: water ratios. This variability both reflects and disguises underlying relationships between the physics and biology of estuaries, which this comparative analysis seeks to reveal, using the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) estuaries as a starting point. A question used to focus this analysis is: are the GOM estuaries unique? The GOM receives the Mississippi River, a uniquely large, world-class river, which dominates the freshwater and nutrient inflows to the GOM continental shelf, whose margins include 35 major estuarine systems. These GOM estuaries have 28% and 41% of the U.S. estuarine wetlands and open water, respectively. Within the GOM, estuarine nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended matter loading varies over 2 orders of magnitude. Anoxic estuarine events tend to occur in estuaries with relatively slow freshwater turnover and high nitrogen loading. Compared to estuaries from other regions in the U.S., the average GOM estuary is distinguished by shallower depths, faster freshwater flushing time, a higher wetland area:open water area ratio, greater fisheries yield per area wetland, lower tidal range, and higher sediment accumulation rates. The average GOM estuary often, but not always, has a flora and fauna not usually found in most other U.S. estuaries (e.g., manatees and mangroves). Coastal wetland loss in the GOM is extraordinarily high compared to other regions and is causally linked to cultural influences. Variations in nutrient loading and population density are very large among and within estuarine regions. This variation is large enough to demonstrate that there are insufficient systematic differences among these estuarine regions that precludes cross-system analyses. There are no abrupt discontinuities among regions in the fisheries yields per wetland area, tidal amplitude and vegetation range, salt marsh vertical accretion rates and organic accumulations, nitrogen retention, or wetland restoration rates. These results suggest that a comparative analysis emphasizing forcing functions, rather than geographic uniqueness, will lead to significant progress in understanding how all estuaries function, are perturbed, and even how they can be restored.     

Will lowering estuarine salinity increase Gulf of Mexico oyster landings?

Previous studies provide conflicting opinions on whether lower than average salinities in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) estuaries are likely to increase or decrease oyster harvests (Crassostrea virginica), which represented 69% and 54% of the United States oyster landings by weight, and dockside value, respectively, in 2003. The present study examined a 54-yr record (1950–2003) of oyster harvests and river discharge in five major estuaries in GOM states (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas). Oyster landings were inversely related to freshwater inflow. Peaks in landings, 21 of 23 in West Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas combined, were coincidental with lows in river discharge from the major rivers in the estuaries. Lows in landings in these states (17 of 19) coincided with peaks in discharge of the major rivers feeding their estuaries. Landings in Breton Sound, Louisiana, were also inversely related to river discharge. The only exception to this pattern was for landings in the Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, part of the Breton Sound estuary, where there were higher landings following increased Mississippi River discharge. The Bonnet Carré spillway, completed in 1931, diverts flood waters from the Mississippi River to Lake Pontchartrain, and it has been opened to reduce flood heights in 1937, 1950, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1983, and 1997. Twenty-five of 28 times after the spillway was opened, oyster landings in Mississippi were lower than in the other four states. The inverse relationship between freshwater inflow and oyster landings suggests that the proposed Bonnet Carré Freshwater Project, designed to reduce estuarine salinity, cannot be justified on the basis of anticipated higher oyster yields in Mississippi or Louisiana. Manipulating estuarine salinity in the GOM should be done within the context of the whole estuary and not just part of the estuary.     

A framework for estimating ecological risks posed by nutrients and trace elements in the Patuxent River

The continued urbanization of coastal watersheds can influence the quality of water that enters rivers and estuaries. Intelligent management of aquatic resources will require the capability to quantitatively assess and evaluate the impacts of alterations in surface waters that result from changes in patterns of land use. An aquatic ecosystem model was developed and linked to an empirical landscape model to estimate ecological risks posed by nutrients and potentially toxic trace elements (copper [Cu], cadmium [Cd], arsenic [As]) in the Patuxent River, Maryland. The empirical landscape model translated reductions in croplands within the Patuxent River watershed into corresponding changes in nitrate estimated to enter the river. Trace element concentrations were increased in relation to urbanization associated with the loss of agricultural lands in the watershed. The aquatic ecosystem model used the altered inputs of nutrients and trace elements to estimate changes in the annual production dynamics of selected producer and consumer populations within the Patuxent River. The models were implemented for four mainstem locations that defined a transect from the upper freshwater portion of the river to downstream estuarine locations. Ecological impacts were estimated for 4 hypothetical changes in land use that consisted of 10%, 7.5%, 5%, and 2.5% watershed coverage by cropland. Impacts were estimated as the probability (risk) of different magnitudes of increases or decreases in total annual production of populations representative of freshwater and estuarine food webs in the Patuxent River.     

Hydrological Conditions Control P Loading and Aquatic Metabolism in an Oligotrophic, Subtropical Estuary

Using high-resolution measures of aquatic ecosystem metabolism and water quality, we investigated the importance of hydrological inputs of phosphorus (P) on ecosystem dynamics in the oligotrophic, P-limited coastal Everglades. Due to low nutrient status and relatively large inputs of terrestrial organic matter, we hypothesized that the ponds in this region would be strongly net heterotrophic and that pond gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R) would be the greatest during the “dry,” euhaline estuarine season that coincides with increased P availability. Results indicated that metabolism rates were consistently associated with elevated upstream total phosphorus and salinity concentrations. Pulses in aquatic metabolism rates were coupled to the timing of P supply from groundwater upwelling as well as a potential suite of hydrobiogeochemical interactions. We provide evidence that freshwater discharge has observable impacts on aquatic ecosystem function in the oligotrophic estuaries of the Florida Everglades by controlling the availability of P to the ecosystem. Future water management decisions in South Florida must include the impact of changes in water delivery on downstream estuaries.