Climate change impacts on environmental geosciences: Introduction

正Climate change and its impacts have become topical issues of global news, scientific research and conferences. Environmental Geosciences incorporate the various disciplines of geosciences and their multifaceted interactions with life. Research discussions on the interaction of climate change, geosciences and environment may often be blur, and Schmidt-Thoméet al.(2010) stated that"Often past climate changes that can be deduced from geological records may help in understanding the speed of potential climate change effects, i.e. how quickly have sea levels changed, how drastic has nature reacted to ups and downs in temperature, etc. These analyses of past events help in giving outlooks on potential changes in our living environment. It is also of important to understand the magnitude and potential effects of extreme events, such as droughts and floods".     

美国海岸带综合地质调查进展及其对中国海岸带研究的启示

美国地质调查局立足于地球系统科学专长,于1994年起领导并实施了国家海岸带和海洋地质计划（CMGP）,旨在为海岸带繁荣提供地球科学信息和解决方案。CMGP统筹海陆,在实践中形成了"整合科学"的研究模式,以及"全国统筹规划,聚焦区域需求,湾区河口先导"的空间发展格局。CMGP结合问题导向和兴趣导向调整工作重点,聚焦五项科学需求：整合科学、全国统筹、地质过程、变化及灾害、生态服务,形成了相对稳定的四大研究方向。CMGP认为,海岸带问题的解决,需要向内陆扩展,向流域、山脉探寻地质作用根源,为此建立了"海岸省"的概念。借鉴美国地质调查局的经验,对中国海岸带地质研究提出四点建议：一是科学分区,二是湾区先导,三是技术创新,四是支撑修复。     

Climate change impacts in Romania: Vulnerability and adaptation options

Using the output from five climate model experiments (four equilibrium GCMs and one transient GCM) for a double carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration, the climate change scenarios in Romania for a time slice up to 2075 were constructed. These scenarios were used to assess the climate change impacts on different resource sectors: agricultural crops, forests, and water resources. The vulnerability of each sector and specific adaptation options were then analysed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China

Natural Hazards - China is vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this study investigates the potential socioeconomic damages to China from weather-related events under future climate...     

Climate change and its impacts on the coastal zone of the Nile Delta,Egypt

The main objectives of the current work are (1) to determine historic pattern of shoreline changes (erosion and accretion) along the north coast of the Nile Delta, (2) to present a future view on what to be expected regarding climate change impacts, sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, expected land losses and alteration of some soil characteristics (3) to recognize negative impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta coast and (4) to assess and suggest protection measures. The current investigation was conducted using the advanced techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system. The investigated area with 394 measured locations is located along the northern coast of the Nile Delta between Alexandria and ElTina plain in Sinai peninsula exactly between 29°20′ and 32°40′ E and 29°54′ and 31°35′ N with the minimum erosion values of 1.11 m², maximum of 6,044,951.64 m² and total of 16.02 km². On the other hand, 177 sites showed minimum accretion values of 0.05 m², maximum of 2,876,855.86 m² and total of 13.19 km². SLR was determined by applying the quadrant equation for 10-year intervals using 1990 as the base year. Mediterranean SLR along the Nile Delta coast could be estimated considering three different scenarios (low 0.20 m, medium 0.50 m, and high 0.90 m). Impacts of SLR are divided into (1) primary and (2) secondary impacts. Over the coming decades, the Nile Delta will face greater threat due to SLR and land subsidence as well. Regarding climate change and its impacts on soil characteristics, rapid increase in salinity values during the former three decades were found. This increase may be due to the intrusion of salty water of the Mediterranean. On the other hand, organic matter content decreased due to higher temperature, especially during the summer season. Some protection measures were assessed and suggested to combat or tackle SLR.     

Determination of Bromine and Iodine in U.S.G.S. Standard Marine Mud (MAG-1)

The concentrations of bromine and iodine in USGS reference material MAG-1 were determined by standard addition with secondary-source x-ray fluorescence spectrometric detection. Three determinations of bromine in the same sample yielded 311, 309 and 346 μg Br/g solid. The iodine content was found to be 380 μg I/g solid. The determination of bromine in a second bottle of MAG-1 (266 ± 9 μg Br/g) indicated that a large variation in halogen concentration may exist between samples of this reference material.     

Climate change impacts on extreme floods I: combining imperfect deterministic simulations and non-stationary frequency analysis

Flood quantiles are routinely used in hydrologic engineering to design hydraulic structures, optimize erosion control structure and map the extent of floodplains. As an increasing number of papers are pointing out cycles and trends in hydrologic time series, the use of stationary flood distributions leads to the overestimation or underestimation of the hydrologic risk at a given time. Several authors tried to address this problem by using probability distributions with time-varying parameters. The parameters of these distributions were assumed to follow a linear or quadratic trend in time, which may be valid for the short term but may lead to unrealistic long-term projections. On the other hand, deterministic rainfall-runoff models are able to successfully reproduce trends and cycles in stream flow data but can perform poorly in reproducing daily flows and flood peaks. Rainfall-runoff models typically have a better performance when simulation results are aggregated at a larger time scale (e.g. at a monthly time scale vs. at a daily time scale). The strengths of these two approaches are combined in this paper where the annual maximum of the time-averaged outputs of a hydrologic model are used to modulate the parameters of a non-stationary GEV model of the daily maximum flow. The method was applied to the Kemptville Creek located in Ontario, Canada, using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model as rainfall-runoff model. The parameters of the non-stationary GEV model are then estimated using Monte Carlo Markov Chain, and the optimal span of the time windows over which the SWAT outputs were averaged was selected using Bayes factors. Results show that using the non-stationary GEV distribution with a location parameter linked to the maximum 9-day average flow provides a much better estimation of flood quantiles than applying a stationary frequency analysis to the simulated peak flows.     

Climate change impacts on a Mediterranean river and the associated interactions with the adjacent coastal area

The Spercheios river basin—coastal marine area is a complex natural and interdependent ecosystem, highly affected by human activities and interventions. Such sensitive systems are even more vulnerable to alterations of the hydrological cycle components and it is likely to be rapidly and severely affected by climate change. In order to examine the climate change impacts on water resources of the study area, the interaction between the hydrology of the river basin and the hydrodynamic of the coastal marine area was examined using two models. Based on the results, although the irrigation needs decrease for the years 2050 and 2100 due to corresponding decrease in cultivated areas, temperature increase and precipitation decrease are both expected to influence the water resources of the Spercheios river basin, which will directly affect the Maliakos Gulf hydrodynamics. The necessity to adopt a holistic approach which will treat river basins and coastal marine areas as an integrated whole, with regard to environmental, socio-economic and political framework, is evident.     

Coastal paleogeography and human land use at Tecolote Canyon,southern California,U.S.A.

A buried archaeological site at Tecolote Canyon provides an ideal case study for relating past human land use patterns to changes in coastal paleogeography. Postglacial sea level transgression, erosion, and other marine and fluvial processes form the context for examining two deeply buried archaeological components excavated at CA‐SBA‐72. Archaeological shellfish assemblages provide proxy data for evaluating the evolution of local marine environments. Pismo clams dominate shellfish assemblages dated to 5800 cal yr B.P., suggesting the presence of a broad and sandy, high‐energy beach environment. At 5500 cal yr B.P., the almost exclusive use of California mussels by humans signals the development of rocky intertidal habitats. During the late Holocene, estuarine species dominate the marine mollusk assemblages at CA‐SBA‐72, reflecting the development of local estuarine conditions or trade with nearby Goleta Slough villages. The buried components at Tecolote Canyon appear to have served as temporary camps for shellfish harvesting and processing. While general changes in coastal paleogeography and human subsistence have been reconstructed for the Santa Barbara Coast, high resolution ecological data from Tecolote Canyon suggest that Native peoples also adapted to localized and shorter‐term shifts in intertidal habitats, changes not evident in most larger or more disturbed surface sites in the region. Linking these changes with shifts in human land use patterns highlights the interaction between humans and a dynamic coastal system. These data demonstrate the importance of small, buried sites in understanding the full spectrum of human subsistence and settlement choices and local environmental change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Oceanography of the U.S. Pacific Northwest Coastal Ocean and estuaries with application to coastal ecology

Ocean processes are generally large scale on the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast; this is true of both seasonal variations and event-scale upwelling-downwelling fluctuations., which are highly energetic. Coastal upwelling supplies most of the macronutrients available for production, although the intensity of upwelling-favorable wind forcing increases southward while primary production and chlorophyll are higher in the north, off the Washington coast. This discrepancy could be related to several mesoscale features: the wider, more gently sloping shelf to the north, the existence of numerous submarine canyons to the north, the availability of Columbia River plume water and sediment north of the river mouth, and the existence of a semi-permanent eddy offshore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. We suggest that these features have important effects on the magnitude and timing of macronutrient or micronutrient delivery to the plankton. These features are potentially important as well to transport pathways and residence times of planktonic larvae and to the development of harmful algal blooms. The coastal plain estuaries, with the exception of the Columbia River, are relatively small, with large tidal forcing and highly seasonal direct river inputs that are low to negligible during the growing season. Primary production in these estuaries is likely controlled not by river-driven stratification but by coastal upwelling and exchange with the ocean. Both baroclinic mechanisms (the gravitational circulation) and barotropic ones (lateral stirring by tide and, possibly, wind) contribute to this exchange. Because estuarine hydrography and ecology are so dominated by ocean signals, the coastal estuaries, like the coastal ocean, are largely synchronous on seasonal and event time scales, though, intrusions of the Columbia River plume can cause strong asymmetries between Washington and Oregon estuaries especially during spring downwelling conditions. Water property correlation increases between spring and summer as wind forcing becomes more spatially coherent along the coast. Estuarine habitat is structure not only, by large scale forcing but also by fine scale processes in the extensive intertidal zone, such as by solar heating or differential advection by tidal, curents.     

Suspended sediment transport effectiveness of three large impounded rivers, U.S. Gulf Coastal Plain

 Suspended sediment transport effectiveness was examined near the mouths of three large impounded rivers (Rio Grande, Brazos, and Pearl Rivers) in differing precipitation regimes in the U.S. Gulf Coastal Plain. Magnitude and frequency analysis of suspended sediment transport was performed by examining the effectiveness of both discharge and time in transporting suspended sediment. Bivariate plots of discharge with infrequent values of silt/clay and sand provide an insight into the relative proportion of coarse-versus fine-grained sediment transport for the three rivers. Despite the aridity of the Rio Grande and Brazos drainage basins, which is often associated with infrequent or episodic transport of sediment, the duration of the effective discharge is similar to humid basins described in the literature. The majority of sediment transport occurs during the moderate discharge events, having a duration of 2.4%, 1.5%, and 4.4% for the Rio Grande, Brazos, and Pearl Rivers, respectively. This may be due to the influence of scale or the influence of upstream dams and reservoirs on discharge and sediment transport. Findings from this research suggest that magnitude and frequency analysis of discharge and suspended sediment near the mouths of large rivers may provide a useful framework for understanding the timing and delivery of riverine sediments to the nearshore coastal environment from rivers draining a range of geologic and climatic settings. Received: 6 September 1996 · Accepted: 4 February 1997     

Climate changes: impacts on geomorphic processes

Climate is one of the conditions which permits, inhibits, retards or enhances certain responses in the geomorphic environment. Components of climate important to geomorphic processes include (1) the duration and character of climate episodes, i.e., the variation of the various climate parameters during any such period, and (2) the nature of discontinuities at both a climate episode's beginning and end, i.e., the magnitude of change and the rate of change occurring at the time of discontinuity. We will evaluate changes in the climate character over the Holocene, compare that to that observed during the instrumental period and, in turn, compare to predicted changes for an atmosphere with twice today's carbon dioxide concentration.     

Coastal megacities and climate change

Rapid urbanization is projected to produce 20 coastal megacities (population exceeding 8 million) by 2010. This is mainly a developing world phenomenon: in 1990, there were seven coastal megacities in Asia (excluding those in Japan) and two in South America, rising by 2010 to 12 in Asia (including Istanbul), three in South America and one in Africa.All coastal locations, including megacities, are at risk to the impacts of accelerated global sea-level rise and other coastal implications of climate change, such as changing storm frequency. Further, many of the coastal megacities are built on geologically young sedimentary strata that are prone to subsidence given excessive groundwater withdrawal. At least eight of the projected 20 coastal megacities have experienced a local orrelative rise in sea level which often greatly exceeds any likely global sea-level rise scenario for the next century.The implications of climate change for each coastal megacity vary significantly, so each city requires independent assessment. In contrast to historical precedent, a proactive perspective towards coastal hazards and changing levels of risk with time is recommended. Low-cost measures to maintain or increase future flexibility of response to climate change need to be identified and implemented as part of an integrated approach to coastal management.     

Climate impacts: temperature and electricity consumption

Natural Hazards - One of the aspects of climate change is temperature rise. Temperature rise or fluctuations affect human economic activities and electricity consumption. This paper estimates the...     

Climate change impacts on water demand and availability using CMIP5 models in the Jaguaribe basin,semi-arid Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).     

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer,Geer basin,Belgium

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.

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Resumen Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

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Résumé Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin détudier limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques dune manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de lIPCC, lapproche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle de leau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme dimpact du changement climatique sur lévolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits deau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.

     

Meteorological factors affecting the speed of movement and related impacts of extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast

The speeds of historical cool-season extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast, hereafter East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS), occurring during the period from 1951 to 2006 were computed. Average storm speed was 13.8 ms⁻¹ with stronger storms generally moving faster than weaker storms and faster storms forming during the midwinter months (December–March). There was no clear trend in ECWS speed during the time period, although considerable season-to-season variability was present. The monthly and seasonal variations in storm speed could not be attributed to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alone. However, the speed of ECWS was considerably slower when both El Ni?o and the negative phase of NAO occurred simultaneously. Characteristic patterns in the upper levels of the atmosphere, specifically 300 hPa zonal winds and 500 hPa geopotential heights, were present during periods when ECWS speeds were among the slowest (and separately fastest). For slow storm speed, these patterns also prevailed during months in which El Ni?o and negative NAO phase occurred. These patterns were also present during months with extended runs of high oceanic storm surge. This provides a qualitative link between the atmospheric conditions associated with slow storms and potentially high coastal storm surge impacts. Among the prime consequences of ECWS speed are extended periods of high storm surge, mainly due to slow-moving storms. The sustained high tidal levels often lead to substantial damage caused by coastal flooding, overwash, and beach erosion.     

Deinocephalians of the U.S.S.R.

The deinocephalian pelvic girdle, of general pelycosaurian structure, is useful in systematic diagnosis. In primitive Russian deinocephalians, two contrasting pelvic patterns are recognized, one light, thin-walled, narrow, and of V-shaped cross-section, and the other massive, thick-walled, wide, and of U-shaped cross-section. The former is characteristic of two families of lightly- built, mobile land carnivores, the Eotitanosuchidae and the Brithopodidae. The Eotitanosuchidae are more primitive and pelycosaur-like, while the Brithopodidae show more variation, and specializations of large size, shallower acetabulum (related to mobility?), and re-enforcement of a weak pubic symphysis by additional processes. The massive type of pelvis characterizes large, heavily built herbivorous animals of the family Estemmenosuchidae. In general pelvic structure, the Estemmenosuchidae resemble the South African anteosaurs and tapinocephalians and the Russian tapinocephalians. In detail, however, they show a more primitive stage of evolution, overlaid by characteristic specializations which relate them more closely to the advanced Russian forms than to those of South Africa. Three new genera are erected, Biarmosaurus, fam. Eotitanosuchidae; Chthomaloporus, fam. Brithopodidae; and Molybdopygus, fam. Estemmenosuchidae. One specimen formerly referred to Deuterosaurus Yefremov 1954, and five formerly included in the type of Brithopus Yefremov 1954 are referred to Molybdopygus. The more primitive deinocephalians are from Yezhovo in the Ocher District, Perm Province, while more advanced forms are from Isheyevo, in Tataria, where-therocephalians and other South African elements are also found. It is therefore concluded that the Ochersk beds are older than those of Isheyevo and must be dated to zone I of Yefremov's system. — N. Hotton III.     

Development of geological research in U.S.S.R Academy of Sciences and U.S.S.R. Ministry of Geology and Mineral Reserves

On October 12, 1962, a joint session of the Presidium of the U.S.S.R. Academy of Sciences and the Collegium of the U.S.S.R. Ministry of Geology and Mineral Reserves adopted a resolution “On the present state of the geological sciences in the U.S.S.R. Academy of Sciences and the U. S. S. R. Ministry of Geology and Mineral Reserves and their prospects for the future.” Important contributions of Russian geologists are acknowledged, but attention is drawn to many shortcomings. Future goals of geological study and work are given in detail. Twenty-one lines of research to be concentrated on are given, covering all phases of geology, geophysics, and geochemistry. In discussing the failings of the geological profession in Russia, it is of interest to note the following comment: “Geological research in other countries is still insufficiently studied and applied, and we are not making adequate use of geologic information from abroad.” The list of the Russian geologists' shortcomings sounds vaguely familiar. —J. R. Hayes