Response times of salinity in relation to changes in freshwater inflows in the Lower Hillsborough River, Florida

The Lower Hillsborough River, Florida is a short (16 km) riverine estuary which has a dam located at its upstream end. Salinity below the dam is influenced by freshwater that flows over or through the structure. Depending on location in the estuary, the response of salinity to changes in upstream freshwater inflows is normally not instantaneous, but lags behind the freshwater release. An analytical approach and a laterally averaged two-dimensional hydrodynamic model were used to examine the response time of salinity in the Lower Hillsborough River to changes in freshwater inflows from the upstream reservoir. A series of case studies were conducted using the model to determine how salinity in the river within one kilometer below the dam would respond to changes in freshwater inflows. The model results suggest that the time lag of salinity in the river depends on whether the upstream freshwater inflows are increasing or decreasing, as well as their magnitude. While the time lag for salinity is about six to eight days for decreasing inflows, it is much shorter for increasing inflows depending on the magnitude of the flow release.     

A resource-based framework for establishing freshwater inflow requirements for the Suwannee River estuary

The availability of methods for establishing freshwater inflow requirements for estuaries lags behind those for establishing flow requirements in riverine ecosystems. Some of the basic principles and approaches for establishing riverine flow requirements may be applicable to estuaries. An emerging approach for establishing freshwater inflow needs for the Suwannee River estuary involves maintaining a natural inflow regime (in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing of freshwater flows) and identifying important habitat targets to be protected. The salinity-river flow conditions needed to sustain the habitat targets in their existing condition are then identified. A variety of tools are employed, such as salinity metrics, biological metrics, limits of distribution of communities or habitats, and landscape-scale characteristics to define the salinity and corresponding flow ranges needed to protect and maintain the resource targets. With this information, combined with use of models to evaluate flow-salinity relationships and various withdrawal scenarios, river flow criteria can be set which address the freshwater inflow requirements to maintain these ranges. Subsequentmonitoring and research is undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of the river flow criteria in protecting the estuarine resource targets. This information can be used to subsequently confirm, refine, or modity the flow criteria.     

Positive Relationship between Freshwater Inflow and Oyster Abundance in Galveston Bay,Texas

Analysis of fisheries-independent data for Galveston Bay, Texas, USA, since 1985 shows eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) frequently demonstrate increased abundance of market-sized oysters 1 to 2 years after years with increased freshwater inflow and decreased salinity. These analyses are compared to Turner’s (Estuaries and Coasts 29:345–352, 2006) study using 3-year running averages of oyster commercial harvest since 1950 in Galveston Bay. Turner’s results indicated an inverse relationship between freshwater inflow and commercial harvest with low harvest during years of high inflow and increased harvest during low flow years. Oyster populations may experience mass mortalities during extended periods of high inflow when low salinities are sustained. Conversely, oyster populations may be decimated during prolonged episodes of low flow when conditions favor oyster predators, parasites, and diseases with higher salinity optima. Turner’s (Estuaries and Coasts 29:345–352, 2006) analysis was motivated by a proposed project in a basin with abundant freshwater where the goal of the project was to substantially increase freshwater flow to the estuary in order to increase oyster harvest. We have the opposite concern that oysters will be harmed by projects that reduce flow, increase salinity, and increase the duration of higher salinity periods in a basin with increasing demand for limited freshwater. Turner’s study and our analysis reflect different aspects of the complex, important relationships between freshwater inflow, salinity, and oysters.     

Alteration of Residual Circulation Due to Large-Scale Infrastructure in a Coastal Plain Estuary

Large-scale human-built infrastructure is shown to alter the salinity and subtidal residual flow in a realistic numerical simulation of hydrodynamic circulation in a coastal plain estuary (Tampa Bay). Two model scenarios are considered. The first uses a modern bathymetry and boundary conditions from the years 2001–2003. The second is identical to the first except that the bathymetry is based on depth soundings from the pre-construction year 1879. Differences between the models' output can only result from changes in bay morphology, in particular built infrastructure such as bridges, causeways, and dredging of the shipping channel. Thirty-day means of model output are calculated to remove the dominant tidal signals and allow examination of the subtidal dynamics. Infrastructure is found to steepen the mean axial salinity gradient $ \partial \overline{s}/ dx $ by ~40% when there is low freshwater input but flatten $ \partial \overline{s}/ dx $ by ~25% under more typical conditions during moderate freshwater inflow to the estuary. Deepening of the shipping channel also increases the magnitude of the residual Eulerian circulation, allowing for larger up-estuary salt transport. Local bathymetry and morphology are important. Some regions within the estuary show little change in residual circulation due to infrastructure. In others, the residual circulation can vary by a factor of 4 or more. Major features of the circulation and changes due to infrastructure can be partially accounted for with linear theory.     

A conceptual model of estuarine freshwater inflow management

As humans continue to influence the quantity, timing, and quality of freshwater input to estuaries, it is becoming increasingly common for policies to be enacted that mandate the establishment of freshwater inflow criteria that will serve to preserve and protect estuarine ecosystems. This paper reviews the scientific literature describing how changes in freshwater inflow affect estuaries, proposes a conceptual model that explores the roles of scientists, citizens, politicians, and managers in the management of freshwater inflow to estuaries, and uses the model to explore the ways in which freshwater inflow is managed in a variety of estuaries. The scientific review is organized to provide an overview of the connections between freshwater inflow (in terms of the quantity, quality, and timing of water delivery), estuarine conditions (such as salinity and concentrations of dissolved and particulate material), and estuarine resources (such as the distribution and abundance of organisms), and to highlight our understanding of the causative mechanisms that underlie the relationships among these variables. The premise of the conceptual model is that the goal of estuarine freshwater inflow policy is to protect those resources and functions that we as a society value in estuaries, and that management measures use scientific information about the relationships among inflow, conditions, and resources to establish inflow standards that can meet this goal. The management approach can be inflow-based (flow is kept within some prescribed bounds under the assumption that taking too much away is bad for the resources), condition-based (inflow standards are set in order to maintain specified conditions in the estuary), or resource-based (inflow standards are set based on the requirements of specific resources), but each of these is carried out by regulating inflow. This model is used as a framework to describe the development of freshwater inflow criteria for estuaries in Texas, Florida, and California.     

Using submerged aquatic vegetation to establish minimum and maximum freshwater inflows to the Caloosahatchee estuary, Florida

Species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) are frequently used in the management of estuarine systems to set restoration goals, nutrient load reduction goals, and water quality targets. As human need for water increases, the amount of freshwater required by estuaries has become an increasingly important issue. While the, science of establishing the freshwater needs of estuaries is not well developed, recent attempts have emphasized the freshwater requirements of fisheries. We evaluate the hypothesis that SAV can be used to establish freshwater inflow needs. Salinity tolerance data from laboratory and field studies of SAV in the Caloosahatchee estuary, Florida, are used to estimate a minimum flow required to maintain the salt-tolerant freshwater species,Vallisneria americana, at the head of the estuary and a maximum flow required to prevent mortality, of the marine speciesHalodule wrightii at its mouth. ForV. americana, laboratory experiments showed that little or no growth occurred between 10‰ and 15‰ In the field, lower shoot densities (<400 shoots m^?2) were associated with salinities greater than 10‰. Results forH. wrightii were more variable than forV. americana. Laboratory experiments indicated that mortality could occur at salinities <6‰, with little growth occurring between 6‰ and 12‰. Field data indicated that higher blade densities (>600 blades m^?2) tend to occur at salinities greater than 12‰ Relationships between salinity in the estuary and discharge from the Caloosahatchee River indicated that flows>8.5 m³ s^?1 would produce tolerable salinity (<10‰) forV. americana and flows<89 m³ s^?1 would avoid lethal salinities (<6‰) forH. wrightii.     

Projected Reorganization of Florida Bay Seagrass Communities in Response to the Increased Freshwater Inflow of Everglades Restoration

Historic changes in water-use management in the Florida Everglades have caused the quantity of freshwater inflow to Florida Bay to decline by approximately 60% while altering its timing and spatial distribution. Two consequences have been (1) increased salinity throughout the bay, including occurrences of hypersalinity, coupled with a decrease in salinity variability, and (2) change in benthic habitat structure. Restoration goals have been proposed to return the salinity climates (salinity and its variability) of Florida Bay to more estuarine conditions through changes in upstream water management, thereby returning seagrass species cover to a more historic state. To assess the potential for meeting those goals, we used two modeling approaches and long-term monitoring data. First, we applied the hydrological mass balance model FATHOM to predict salinity climate changes in sub-basins throughout the bay in response to a broad range of freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Second, because seagrass species exhibit different sensitivities to salinity climates, we used the FATHOM-modeled salinity climates as input to a statistical discriminant function model that associates eight seagrass community types with water quality variables including salinity, salinity variability, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and ammonium, as well as sediment depth and light reaching the benthos. Salinity climates in the western sub-basins bordering the Gulf of Mexico were insensitive to even the largest (5-fold) modeled increases in freshwater inflow. However, the north, northeastern, and eastern sub-basins were highly sensitive to freshwater inflow and responded to comparatively small increases with decreased salinity and increased salinity variability. The discriminant function model predicted increased occurrences of Halodule wrightii communities and decreased occurrences of Thalassia testudinum communities in response to the more estuarine salinity climates. The shift in community composition represents a return to the historically observed state and suggests that restoration goals for Florida Bay can be achieved through restoration of freshwater inflow from the Everglades.     

Estimation of net physical transport and hydraulic residence times for a coastal plain estuary using box models

A box model based on salinity distributions and freshwater inflow measurements was developed and used to estimate net non-tidal physical circulation and hydraulic residence times for Patuxent River estuary, Maryland, a tributary estuary of Chesapeake Bay. The box model relaxes the usual assumption that salinity is at steady-state, an important improvement over previous box model studies, yet it remains simple enough to have broad appeal. Average monthly 2-dimensional net non-tidal circulation and residence times for 1986–1995 are estimated and related to river flow and salt water inflow as estimated by the box model. An important result is that advective exchange at the estuary mouth was not correlated with Patuxent River flow, most likely due to effects of offshore salinity changes in Chesapeake Bay. The median residence time for freshwater entering at the head of the estuary was 68 d and decreased hyperbolically with increasing river flow to 30 d during high flow. Estimates of residence times for down-estuary points of origin showed that, from the head of the estuary to its mouth, control of flushing changed from primarily river flow to other factors regulating the intensity of gravitational circulation.     

The calculation of estuarine turnover times using freshwater fraction and tidal prism models: A critical evaluation

Freshwater fraction and tidal prism models are simple methods for estimating the turnover time of estuarine water. The freshwater fraction method prominently features flushing by freshwater inflow and has sometimes been criticized because it appears not to include flushing by seawater, but this is accounted for implicitly because the average estuary salinity used in the calculation reflects all the processes that bring seawater into the estuary, including gravitational circulation and tidal processes. The model relies on measurable salinity differences among water masses and so must be used for estuaries with substantial freshwater inflow. Tidal prism models are based on flushing by flood tide inflow and ignore seawater inflow due to gravitational circulation. These models should only be applied to estuaries with weak or nonexistent gravitational circulation, which are generally those with little freshwater inflow. Using a framework that is less ambioguous and more directly applicable to the estimation of turnover times than those used previously, this paper critically examines the application of tidal prism models in well-mixed estuaries with complete tidal exchange, partial ebb return, or incomplete flood mixing and in partially mixed estuaries. Problems with self-consistency in earlier versions of these models also apply to the budgeting procedure used by the LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) program. Although freshwater fraction and tidal prism models are different approaches to estimating turnover times in systems with very different characteristics, consistent derivation shows that these models have much in common with each other and that they yield equivalent values that can be used to make comparisons across systems.     

Modeling Fate, Transport, and Biological Uptake of Selenium in North San Francisco Bay

Selenium behavior in North San Francisco Bay, the largest estuary on the US Pacific coast, is simulated using a numerical model. This work builds upon a previously published application for simulating selenium in the bay and considers point and non-point sources, transport and mixing of selenium, transformations between different species of selenium, and biological uptake by phytoplankton, bivalves, and higher organisms. An evaluation of the calibrated model suggests that it is able to represent salinity, suspended material, and chlorophyll a under different flow conditions beyond the calibration period, through comparison against long-term data, and the distribution of different species of dissolved and particulate selenium. Model-calculated selenium concentrations in bivalves compared well to a long-term dataset, capturing the annual and seasonal variations over a 15-year period. In particular, the observed lower bivalve concentrations in the wet flow periods, corresponding to lower average particulate selenium concentrations in the bay, are well represented by the model, demonstrating the role of loading and hydrology in affecting clam concentrations. Simulated selenium concentrations in higher organisms including white sturgeon and greater scaup also compared well to the observed data in the bay. Finally, a simulation of changing riverine inflows into the bay that might occur as a consequence of proposed hydrologic modifications indicated significant increases in dissolved and particulate selenium concentrations in the bay. The modeling framework allows an examination of the relationship between selenium loads, variations in inflow, in-bay concentrations, and biota concentrations to support management for limiting wildlife impacts.     

The Influence of Freshwater on Nekton Community Structure in Hydrologically Distinct Basins in Northeastern Florida Bay, FL, USA

Natural patterns of freshwater delivery to the Florida Bay estuary have been disrupted by flood-control and water-supply projects. Restoration efforts are likely to alter salinity regimes and patterns of nekton distribution and abundance. Spatial and seasonal community structure differences were analyzed for small-bodied and large-bodied nekton collected by fisheries-independent monitoring from 2006 through 2009 in the northeastern basins of Florida Bay. The small-bodied nekton community was dominated by resident fish that may be indicators of ecosystem health because they spend their lives within the bay and are not directly influenced by human harvest; the large-bodied nekton community was dominated by transient and, in some cases, economically important species. Differences in community structure revealed a gradient in similarity that was associated with freshwater influence, as determined by salinity variability over the study period. These observed changes associated with salinity regimes within and between basins underscore the importance of monitoring communities before and after alterations in freshwater inflow.     

Freshwater inundation effects on emergent vegetation of a hypersaline salt marsh

The coastal marshlands of the Nueces estuary, Texas depend upon periodic freshwater inundation to support current community structure and promote further establishment and expansion of emergent halophytes. Decades of watershed modifications have dramatically decreased freshwater discharge into the upper estuary resulting in hypersaline and dry conditions. In an attempt to partially restore inflow, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation excavated two overflow channels re-connecting the Nueces River to the marshlands. Freshwater-mediated (precipitation and inflow) changes in tidal creek and porewater salinity and emergent marsh vegetation were examined over a 5-yr period at three stations in the upper Nueces Marsh with the aid of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Two stations were potentially subjected to freshwater inflow through the channels, while one station experienced only precipitation. Decreased tidal creek and porewater salinity were significantly correlated with increased freshwater at all stations (R²=0.37 to 0.56), although porewater salinities remained hypersaline. GIS analyses indicated the most considerable vegetation change following freshwater inundation was increased cover of the annual succulentSalicornia bigelovii. Fall inundation allowed seed germination and rapid expansion of this species into previously bare areas during the subsequent winter and following spring. The station affected by both inflow and precipitation exhibited greaterS. bigelovii cover than the station affected solely by precipitation in both spring 1999 (58. 7% compared to 27.9%) and 2000 (48.6% compared to 1.9%). Percent cover of the perennialBatis maritima temporarily increased after periods of consistent rainfall. The response was short term, and cover quickly returned to pre-inundation conditions within 3 mo. Prolonged inundation led to longterm (>2yr) decreases in percent cover ofB. maritima. Our results suggest that the timing and quantity of freshwater inundation strongly dictate halophyte response to precipitation and inflow. Brief periods of freshwater inundation that occur at specific times of year alleviate stress and promote seed germination and growth, but extended soil saturation can act as a disturbance that has a negative impact on species adapted to hypersaline conditions.     

Tidal and Groundwater Fluxes to a Shallow, Microtidal Estuary: Constraining Inputs Through Field Observations and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Increased nutrient loading to estuaries has led to eutrophication, degraded water quality, and ecological transformations. Quantifying nutrient loads in systems with significant groundwater input can be difficult due to the challenge of measuring groundwater fluxes. We quantified tidal and freshwater fluxes over an 8-week period at the entrance of West Falmouth Harbor, Massachusetts, a eutrophic, groundwater-fed estuary. Fluxes were estimated from velocity and salinity measurements and a total exchange flow (TEF) methodology. Intermittent cross-sectional measurements of velocity and salinity were used to convert point measurements to cross-sectionally averaged values over the entire deployment (index relationships). The estimated mean freshwater flux (0.19?m³/s) for the 8-week period was mainly due to groundwater input (0.21?m³/s) with contributions from precipitation to the estuary surface (0.026?m³/s) and removal by evaporation (0.048?m³/s). Spring?Cneap variations in freshwater export that appeared in shorter-term averages were mostly artifacts of the index relationships. Hydrodynamic modeling with steady groundwater input demonstrated that while the TEF methodology resolves the freshwater flux signal, calibration of the index?Csalinity relationships during spring tide conditions only was responsible for most of the spring?Cneap signal. The mean freshwater flux over the entire period estimated from the combination of the index-velocity, index?Csalinity, and TEF calculations were consistent with the model, suggesting that this methodology is a reliable way of estimating freshwater fluxes in the estuary over timescales greater than the spring?Cneap cycle. Combining this type of field campaign with hydrodynamic modeling provides guidance for estimating both magnitude of groundwater input and estuarine storage of freshwater and sets the stage for robust estimation of the nutrient load in groundwater.     

A Before–After–Control–Impact Analysis of the Effects of a Mississippi River Freshwater Diversion on Estuarine Nekton in Louisiana, USA

Since 1991, the Caernarvon Freshwater Diversion has been reintroducing Mississippi River water into a previously hydrologically isolated estuary in an effort to restore wetlands. To determine the effect of freshwater inflow on estuarine nekton community structure, a Before?CAfter?CControl?CImpact study design was applied. As a result of the opening, salinities in the impact area decreased, and the nekton community structure in the estuary changed significantly. Species of economical or ecological importance either increased in biomass or exhibited no response to the opening of the diversion. Higher abundances of small fish were observed in the area receiving freshwater flow, which is an indication that the area serves as a refuge from large marine predators. Because a salinity gradient was established, as opposed to a uniform but lower salinity regime, aquatic habitat was available to nekton species from a wide spectrum of salinity tolerances.     

Small-scale spatial variation of macrobenthic community structure

Examination of small-scale spatial variation in essential to understanding the relationships between environmental factors and benthic community structure in estuaries. A sampling experiment was performed in October 1993 to measure infauna association with sediment composition and salinity gradients in Nueces Bay, Texas, USA. The bay was partitioned into four salinity zones and three sediment types. Higher densities of macrofaua, were found in sediments with greater sand content and in areas with higher salinity. High diversity was also associated with high homogeneous salinity (31–33‰) and greater sand content. Macrofauna biomass and diversity were positively correlated with bottom salinity, porewater salinity, and bottom dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). Furthermore, species dominance shifted along the estuarine gradient.Streblospio benedicti dominated at lower salinity, but,Mediomatsus ambiseta andMulinia lateralis were the dominant species at higher salinity. Statistical analyses revealed significant correlations for sediment characteristics (i.e., increased fine sediments, water content, and total organic carbon) with decreased total abundance and diversity. Increased salinity and DIN were correlated with increased total biomass, diversity, and macrofauma community structure. These physico-chemical variables are regulated by freshwater inflow, so inflow is an important factor influencing macrofauna community structure by indirectly influencing the physico-chemical environment.     

Time-dependent modeling of the Baltic entrance area. 2. Water and salt exchange of the Baltic Sea

A time-dependent model for stratification and circulation within the Baltic entrance area (Gustafsson 2000) is tested against observed salinities for the period 1961–1993. Although the Baltic Sea is one of the largest estuarine systems on earth, this model could be applicable to smaller estuarine systems and embayments with tidal exchange. The seasonal cycle of freshwater flux across the sill area does not follow the seasonal cycle of freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea. The seasonal variation of the flux is a combined effect of the seasonal variation in freshwater supply, in Baltic mean sea level, and in dispersion of salt across the sills. The seasonal variation in dispersion of salt is due to the seasonal cycle of sea level variability. The model is used to predict the inflow of high saline water to the Baltic Sea. The resulting inflow time-series is consistent with variations in the deep-water salinity and temperature in the deeper parts of the Baltic Sea. A comparison with previous estimates of the magnitude of major Baltic inflows shows that the model is able to reproduce the characteristics fairly well although the magnitude of the flows of water and salt appears lower than other estimates. It is shown that a climatic change that increases the wind mixing does not significantly change the major inflows. Both increased amplitudes of sea level variations in the Kattegat and decreased freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea substantially increase the magnitude of the inflows. It is shown that deep-water renewal in the Baltic Sea is obstructed during years with high freshwater supply even if the sea level forcing is favorable to a major inflow.     

Sources of Salinity Variation in a Coastal Lagoon in a Karst Landscape

Bahia de la Ascension (BA) is a shallow, mangrove-fringed coastal bay connected to the Caribbean through two inlets, outlined by the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System. This work represents an initial investigation of the relative contribution of hydrometeorological and hydrodynamic forcing on salinity variation in this lagoon. Our objective is to assess the sensitivity of the salinity in BA to fluctuations in freshwater inflow and coastal oceanography. Two field trips were undertaken during rainy and dry seasons in 2007. Surface salinity was mapped across the system and CTD deployments carried out within BA and in the sea end-member to characterize temperature, conductivity, and water level. Also, cross-sectional CTD profiles were implemented to examine vertical stratification. The water balance indicated that 16 % of rainfall over the drainage basin (DB) becomes groundwater discharge plus surface runoff into BA during dry season, while 68 % of the precipitation input to the DB is supplied through groundwater–surface runoff to the bay during rainfalls. This combined inflow showed larger fluctuations than direct rainfall and, thus, has a greater potential to alter the seasonal salinity variations within BA. The tidal signal is selectively attenuated within BA, as diurnal frequencies are more readily filtered out than semidiurnal frequencies. Mesohaline conditions in the southwest bay are associated with freshwater sources, while saline water masses in the inlet are influenced by prevalent SE winds in the region and tidal phase, establishing a strong horizontal SW-NE estuarine salinity gradient.     

A method to assess the freshwater inflow requirements of estuaries and application to the Mtata estuary, South Africa

The National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) in South Africa recognizes basic human water requirements as well as the need to sustain the country's freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in a healthy condition for present as well as future generations. In this Act, provision is made for a water reserve to be estimated prior to the authorization of water use (e.g., for agriculture, large volume residential and industrial uses) through licensing. This reserve is the water required to satisfy basic human needs (i.e., 25 1 person^?1 d^?1) and to protect aquatic ecosystems to ensure present and future sustainable use of the resource. This led the Departments of Water Affairs and Forestry and estuarine scientists throughout South Africa to develop a method to determine the freshwater inflow requirements of estuaries. The method includes documenting the geographical boundaries of the estuary and determining estuarine health by comparing the present state of the estuary with a predicted reference condition with the use of an Estuarine Health Index. The importance of the estuary as an ecosystem is taken from a national rating system and together with the present health is used to set an Ecological Reserve Category for the estuary. This category represents the level of protections afforded to an estuary. Freshwater is then reserved to maintain the estuary in that Ecological Reserve Category. The Reserve, the quantity and quality of freshwater required for the estuary, is determined using an approach where realistic future river runoff scenarios are assessed, together with data for present state and reference conditions, to evaluate the extent to which abiotic and biotic conditions within an estuary are likely to vary with changes in river inflow. Results from these evaluations are used to select an acceptable river flow scenario that represents the highest reduction in freshwater inflow that will still protect the aquatic ecosystem of the estuary and keep it in the desired Ecological Reserve Category. The application of the Reserve methodology to the Mtata estuary is described.     

A numerical simulation of residual circulation in Tampa Bay. Part I: Low-frequency temporal variations

The residual (time-average) salinity and circulation in a numerical ocean model of the Tampa Bay estuary are shown to experience significant temporal variation under realistic forcing conditions. A version of the Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model developed for Tampa Bay with 70 by 100 horizontal grid points and 11 sigma levels is examined for the years 2001–2003. Model output variables are averaged over the entire time of the simulation to generate long-term residual fields. The residual axial current is found to be dominated by the buoyancy-driven baroclinic circulation with an outflow (southwestward) at the surface and to the sides of the shipping channel, and an inflow (northeastward) usually occurring subsurface within or above the shipping channel. Averages over 30 d are used to examine variations in the residual fields. During the simulation the average surface salinity near the head of Tampa Bay varies with the freshwater inflow, from 12‰ to 33%. At the bay mouth salinity varies from 30%. to 36%.. A localized measure of the baroclinic circulation in the shipping channel indicates the residual circulation can vary strongly, attaining a magnitude triple the long-term mean value. The baroclinic circulation can be disrupted, going to near zero or even reversing, when the buoyancy-driven flow is weak and the surface winds are to the northeast. Three time periods, representing different environmental conditions, are chosen to examine these results in detail. A scaling argument indicates the relative strength of buoyancy versus wind as ΔρgH²(LC _Dω²)⁻¹, where δρ is head-to-mouth density difference across the bay,g is gravitational acceleration,H is depth,L is bay length,C _D is the surface wind drag coefficient, andw is wind speed. Tampa Bay is usually in the buoyancy dominated regime. The importance of winds in the weak-buoyancy case is demonstrated in an additional simulation without wind stress.     

Of manatees, mangroves, and the Mississippi River: Is there an estuarine signature for the Gulf of Mexico?

Important parameters of estuarine variability include morphology, flushing times, nutrient loading rates, and wetland: water ratios. This variability both reflects and disguises underlying relationships between the physics and biology of estuaries, which this comparative analysis seeks to reveal, using the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) estuaries as a starting point. A question used to focus this analysis is: are the GOM estuaries unique? The GOM receives the Mississippi River, a uniquely large, world-class river, which dominates the freshwater and nutrient inflows to the GOM continental shelf, whose margins include 35 major estuarine systems. These GOM estuaries have 28% and 41% of the U.S. estuarine wetlands and open water, respectively. Within the GOM, estuarine nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended matter loading varies over 2 orders of magnitude. Anoxic estuarine events tend to occur in estuaries with relatively slow freshwater turnover and high nitrogen loading. Compared to estuaries from other regions in the U.S., the average GOM estuary is distinguished by shallower depths, faster freshwater flushing time, a higher wetland area:open water area ratio, greater fisheries yield per area wetland, lower tidal range, and higher sediment accumulation rates. The average GOM estuary often, but not always, has a flora and fauna not usually found in most other U.S. estuaries (e.g., manatees and mangroves). Coastal wetland loss in the GOM is extraordinarily high compared to other regions and is causally linked to cultural influences. Variations in nutrient loading and population density are very large among and within estuarine regions. This variation is large enough to demonstrate that there are insufficient systematic differences among these estuarine regions that precludes cross-system analyses. There are no abrupt discontinuities among regions in the fisheries yields per wetland area, tidal amplitude and vegetation range, salt marsh vertical accretion rates and organic accumulations, nitrogen retention, or wetland restoration rates. These results suggest that a comparative analysis emphasizing forcing functions, rather than geographic uniqueness, will lead to significant progress in understanding how all estuaries function, are perturbed, and even how they can be restored.