Decadal climate variability simulated in a coupled general circulation model

A 1000 year integration of the CSIRO coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is used to study low frequency (decadal to centennial) climate variability in precipitation and temperature. The model is shown to exhibit sizeable decadal variability for these fields, generally accounting for approximately 20 to 40% of the variability (greater than one year) in precipitation and up to 80% for temperature. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the model output to show some of the major statistical modes of low frequency variability. The first EOF spatial pattern looks very much like that of the interannual ENSO pattern. It bears considerable resemblance to observational estimates and is centred in the Pacific extending into both hemispheres. It modulates both precipitation and temperature globally. The EOF has a time evolution that appears to be more than just red noise. Finally, the link between SST in the Pacific with Australian rainfall variability seen in observations is also evident in the model. Received: 29 August 1998 / Accepted: 31 July 1999     

渤海冬季环流的数值研究

本文利用一个等距、跳点、隐式的总能量守恒型差分方案,对渤海冬季环流进行数值研究。计算结果和海上观测的一致性是令人满意的,对于渤海冬季环流的形成机制和黄海暖流余脉的影响也作了十分有意义的探讨。     

Breeze circulation in the Black Sea region

The modeling of atmospheric circulation in the Black Sea region using the WRF-ARW model for 30 summer days is considered to single out the contribution of the breeze component of wind speed. Assuming the quasiperiodic nature of breeze, the speed of daytime and nighttime breeze is computed for the whole region and for five separate areas on the coast. Specific features of the formation of daytime and nighttime breeze in these areas are distinguished. It is revealed that the presence of coastal mountains and the complex coastline determine the typical features of breeze development.     

Tropical/extratropical forcing on wintertime variability of the extratropical temperature and circulation

The secular trends and interannual variability of wintertime temperatures over northern extratropical lands and circulations over the northern hemisphere are examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1961 to 2010. A primitive equation dry atmospheric model, driven by time-averaged forcing in each winter diagnosed from the NCEP reanalysis, is then employed to investigate the influences of tropical and extratropical forcing on the temperature and circulation variability. The model has no topography and the forcing is thus model specific. The dynamic and thermodynamic maintenances of the circulation and temperature anomalies are also diagnosed. Distinct surface temperature trends over 1961–1990 and 1991–2010 are found over most of the extratropical lands. The trend is stronger in the last two decades than that before 1990, particularly over eastern Canadian Arctic, Greenland, and Asia. The exchange of midlatitude and polar air supports the temperature trends. Both the diagnosed extratropical and tropical forcings contribute to the temperature and circulation trends over 1961–1990, while the extratropical forcing dominates tropical forcing for the trends over 1991–2010. The contribution of the tropical forcing to the trends is sensitive to the period considered. The temperature and circulation responses to the diagnosed tropical and extratropical forcings are approximately additive and partially offsetting. Covariances between the interannual surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential anomalies for the NCEP reanalysis from 1961 to 2010 are dominated by two leading modes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection patterns. The diagnosed extratropical forcing accounts for a significant part of the NAO and PNA associated variability, including the interannual variability of stationary wave anomalies, as well as dynamically and thermodynamically synoptic eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The tropical forcing contributes to the PNA related temperature and circulation variability, but has a small contribution to the NAO associated variability. Additionally, relative contributions of tropical Indian and Pacific forcings are also assessed.     

Year-to-Year and interdecadal variability in the activity of intraseasonal fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation

Summary Interannual variability in the activity of fluctuations with subseasonal time scales is investigated based upon observed data of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere circulation over the recent 38 winters. Their activity is represented in the root mean square (RMS) field of filtered geopotential height in which the fluctuations with time scales between 10 days and a season are retained. The singular value decomposition (SVD) was applied to the covariance matrix between the seasonal mean and RMS fields for the 500-hPa height.The leading SVD mode for the north Pacific represents the strong relationship between the polarity of the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern in the seasonal-mean anomalies and the amplitude of a meridionally-oriented dipole-like oscillation within the season. It tends to be more active when the seasonal-mean jet stream is strongly diffluent over the central Pacific than when the jet is extended zonally across the Pacific. The leading SVD mode for the north Atlantic is indicative of stronger intraseasonal fluctuations near Greenland in the presence of anticyclonic seasonal-mean anomalies associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).The intraseasonal variability in the extratropics is strongly correlated with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and that in the north Pacific also exhibits significant but rather weak correlation with SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The activity of the atmospheric intraseasonal fluctuations is found to be modulated in accordance with interdecadal variability in the seasonal-mean circulation and SST.On leave from Department of Earth & Planetary Physics, University of Tokyo.With 12 Figures     

On the Black Sea circulation with very strong and weak winds

With a baroclinic prognostic model of sea dynamics, the annual cycle of the Black Sea hydrological regime is modeled for constantly changing atmospheric circulation types characteristic of the Black Sea. Emphasis is placed on the hydrological structure of the upper sea layer in two extreme meteorological situations, storm and near-calm conditions over the sea basin. A significant difference is found in the character of the sea currents, and the main sea circulation features are determined for such situations. The system of model equations is solved using a method of two-cycle splitting on a grid with a 5-km horizontal step and 32 levels in the vertical.     

Climate mean,variability and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean atmospheric circulation in the NCEP CFSv2

In this study, the climate mean, variability, and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean 200 hPa geopotential height (Z200) in a CMIP and a set of AMIP simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) are analyzed and compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the climate mean, it is found that a component of the bias in stationary waves characterized with wave trains emanating from the tropics into both the hemispheres can be attributed to the precipitation deficit over the Maritime continent. The lack of latent heating associated with the precipitation deficit may have served as the forcing of the wave trains. For the variability of the seasonal mean, both the CMIP and AMIP successfully simulated the geographical locations of the major centers of action, but the simulated intensity was generally weaker than that in the reanalysis, particularly for the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area. It is also noted that the simulated action center over Aleutian Islands was southeastward shifted to some extent. The shift was likely caused by the eastward extension of the Pacific jet. Differences also existed between the CMIP and the AMIP simulations, with the center of actions over the Aleutian Islands stronger in the AMIP and the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area stronger in the CMIP simulation. In the mode analysis, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern in each dataset was first removed from the data, and a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis was then applied to the residual. The purpose of this separation was to avoid possible mixing between the ENSO mode and those generated by the atmospheric internal dynamics. It was found that the simulated ENSO teleconnection patterns from both model runs well resembled that from the reanalysis, except for a small eastward shift. Based on the REOF modes of the residual data, six dominant modes of the reanalysis data had counterparts in each model simulation, though with different rankings in explained variance and some distortions in spatial structure. By evaluating the temporal coherency of the REOF modes between the reanalysis and the AMIP, it was found that the time series associated with the equatorially displaced North Atlantic Oscillation in the two datasets were significantly correlated, suggesting a potential predictability for this mode.     

Regional features of long-term variability of the Black Sea surface temperature

The regional features oflong-term variability ofsea surface temperature (SST) in the Black Sea are analyzed using the satellite data for 1982-2014. It is demonstrated that the maximum intraannual and interannual variability of SST is registered on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea. The high level of interannual variability of SST and maximum linear trends are observed in the northeastern part of the sea. The qualitative connection is revealed between the long-term variability of SST and the variations in the intensity of the Black Sea Rim Current in the long-term seasonal cycle. An increase in the level of interannual variability of SST is observed in summer, when the Black Sea Rim Current weakens. The significant negative correlation is revealed between the interannual anomalies of SST and the NAO index. The highest correlation coefficients are obtained for the eastern part of the Black Sea and near the Crimean coast.     

Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole

This study investigates the decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）. It is found that the long-term IOD index displays a decadal phase variation. Prior to 1920 negative phase dominates but after 1960 positive phase prevails. Under the warming background of the tropical ocean, a larger warming trend in the western Indian Ocean is responsible for the decadal phase variation of the IOD mode. Due to reduced latent heat loss from the local ocean, the western Indian Ocean warming may be caused by the weakened Indian Ocean westerly summer monsoon. The interannual air-sea coupled IOD mode varies on the background of its decadal variability. During the earlier period （1948-1969）, IOD events are characterized by opposing SST anomaly （SSTA） in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, with a single vertical circulation above the equatorial Indian Ocean. But in the later period （1980-2003）, with positive IOD dominating, most IOD events have a zonal gradient perturbation on a uniform positive SSTA. However, there are three exceptionally strong positive IOD events （1982, 1994, and 1997）, with opposite SSTA in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, accompanied by an El Nifio event. Consequently, two anomalous reversed Walker cells are located separately over the Indian Ocean and western-eastern Pacific; the one over the Indian Ocean is much stronger than that during other positive IOD events.     

全球海表温度场中主要的年代际突变及其模态

用滑动t检验法对NOAA提供的改进扩展重建的全球海表温度场（1867～2005年）的年平均时间序列进行了年代际突变的定量检验。给出了几个年代际突变时期的时空分布，这些时期有:1894～1901年、1905～1909年、1920～1930年、1939～1945年、1954～1958年、1973～1979年和1994～1998年，并确定了全球海表温度年代际突变的时间，不仅发现了大家熟知的1924、1942和1976年左右的突变，还发现了1894、1907、1956年和最近的1997年的突变。分析表明，赤道太平洋和南太平洋是海温变化的敏感区的可能性较大，其次是北太平洋和南印度洋。用合成差分析得到了全球海表温度场的年代际模态的空间分布，1895～1906年和1908～1923年、1925～1941年和1943～1955年以及1977～1996年和1998～2005年这三对模态分别在大部分海域大体上存在较为明显的反位相结构，太平洋上各个时期均表现为PDO模态，只是强度和范围有所不同，大西洋的南北结构具有不对称性，增暖占主导地位。用滑动t检验法对PDO的年代际突变的信号进行了定量的检验，发现其年代际突变的时间依次为:1908、1924、1942、1956、1976和1997年，除了1894年的突变外，其余突变年份与上述全球海表温度场的年代际突变时间基本上是一致的，这说明PDO是全球海表温度场年代际突变的重要成员之一。假如存在1997年左右的突变，1998至今时段就是全球海表温度场一个新的年代际背景，就其年代际模态而言，目前的强度比1943～1955时段的年代际背景还要强；就PDO目前的强度来说， 与1909～1923和1957～1975这两个时段的强度大体相当。     

Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean SST

The variability of the Indian Ocean on interannual and decadal timescales is investigated in observations, coupled model simulation and model experiment. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was specifically analyzed using a data-adaptive method. This study reveals one decadal mode and two interannual modes in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the IOD. The decadal mode in the IOD is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) of the North Pacific SST. The two interannual modes are related to the biennial and canonical components of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consistent with previous studies. This study hypothesizes that the relation between the Indian Ocean and the North Pacific on decadal scale may be through the northerly winds from the western North Pacific. The long simulation of Community Climate System Model version 4 also indicates the presence of IOD modes associated with the decadal PDO and canonical ENSO modes. However, the model fails to simulate the biennial ENSO mode in the Indian Ocean. The relation between the Indian Ocean and North Pacific Ocean is further supported by the regionally de-coupled model experiment.     

1961—2019年黑龙江省冬季气温季节内变化及环流异常特征

利用1961—2019年黑龙江省冬季气温、NCEP再分析资料和环流指数资料,采用多变量经验正交函数分解、合成分析、相关分析等方法,分析黑龙江省冬季气温季节内变化及其环流异常特征,并进一步对比了主要环流因子在冬季气温季节内演变不同模态中的相对贡献。结果表明：季节内变化是黑龙江省冬季气温变化的基本特征。黑龙江省冬季气温存在季节内一致变化、12月和翌年1—2月反位相变化、12月至翌年1月和2月反位相变化三个主要模态。当冬季气温处于第一模态分布一致偏暖(冷)时,环流呈现北极涛动(AO)正(负)位相的分布特征,东亚冬季风(EAWM)偏弱(强)。当冬季气温发生季节内冷暖转换时,季内极涡、高空急流、西伯利亚高压(SH)和EAWM强度、中高纬环流经向度等均有明显调整。第二模态1月和第三模态2月环流场分别呈现类似极地欧亚型(PEA)和东大西洋型(EA)遥相关的分布特征。AO、SH、EAWM、PEA和EA是冬季气温季节内演变的重要影响因子。     

Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

In this study, we analysed decadal and long-term steric sea level variations over 1966–2007 period in the Indo-Pacific sector, using an ocean general circulation model forced by reanalysis winds. The simulated steric sea level compares favourably with sea level from satellite altimetry and tide gauges at interannual and decadal timescales. The amplitude of decadal sea level variability (up to ~5 cm standard deviation) is typically nearly half of the interannual variations (up to ~10 cm) and two to three times larger than long-term sea level variations (up to 2 cm). Zonal wind stress varies at decadal timescales in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean, with coherent signals in ERA-40 (from which the model forcing is derived), NCEP, twentieth century and WASWind products. Contrary to the variability at interannual timescale, for which there is a tendency of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events to co-occur, decadal wind stress variations are relatively independent in the two basins. In the Pacific, those wind stress variations drive Ekman pumping on either side of the equator, and induce low frequency sea level variations in the western Pacific through planetary wave propagation. The equatorial signal from the western Pacific travels southward to the west Australian coast through equatorial and coastal wave guides. In the Indian Ocean, decadal zonal wind stress variations induce sea level fluctuations in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, through equatorial and coastal wave-guides. Wind stress curl in the southern Indian Ocean drives decadal variability in the south-western Indian Ocean through planetary waves. Decadal sea level variations in the south–western Indian Ocean, in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and in the Bay of Bengal are weakly correlated to variability in the Pacific Ocean. Even though the wind variability is coherent among various wind products at decadal timescales, they show a large contrast in long-term wind stress changes, suggesting that long-term sea level changes from forced ocean models need to be interpreted with caution.     

Interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime North Pacific

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the extratropical North Pacific during boreal winter, which has an important impact on North American winter climate. This study analyses the interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime extratropical North Pacific, over the period 1900–2010, using a range of observationally derived datasets and an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations. The observed teleconnection strength is found to vary substantially over the 20th century. Specifically, 31-year periods in the early-century (1912–1942), mid-century (1946–1976) and the late-century (1980–2010) are identified in the observations when the ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific circulation are found to be particularly strong, weak and strong respectively. The ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific in the atmospheric model ensemble is weak in the mid-century period and substantially stronger in the late-century, closely following the variability in the observed ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection. In the early-century, however, the atmospheric model also exhibits a weak teleconnection to the North Pacific, unlike in observations. In a subset of the model realisations that exhibit similar ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection as in observations during the early-century period there are large differences in extratropical circulation but not in equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies, in contrast to the late-century period. This suggests that the high correlation in the early century period is largely due to internal extratropical variability. The important implications of these results for seasonal predictability and the assessment of seasonal forecasting systems are discussed.

     

Spatiotemporal long-term trends of extreme wind characteristics over the Black Sea

In this study, long-term change of wind characteristics on the Black Sea has been investigated using two widely used data sources, i.e., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR), spanning 40 years between 1979 and 2018. Spatial and seasonal variability of climatic features such as the wind speed, direction, number and duration of storms, and wind power density are discussed. Wind climate is characterized by strong, durable and stable winds in the northern and western Black Sea, and relatively weak, short-lived and highly-variable winds in the eastern Black Sea. These long-term wind patterns indicate that the eastern part of the basin is likely to be subjected to the impacts of climate change. Long-term stable and strong wind conditions in the southwest part indicate reliable, persistent and sustainable wind energy potential. Long-term and seasonal variation of wind power density (WPD) at 110 m altitude over the Black Sea is investigated. There is a significant difference in WPD values between winter and summer seasons, with around 2.8 times larger WPD in winter than that in summer. In the western Black Sea, narrow confidence intervals observed in each season indicate a low level of variation during a season and ensures stable wind power conditions.     

Subseasonal variability of North American wintertime surface air temperature

Climate Dynamics - Using observational pentad data of the recent 34 Northern Hemisphere extended winters, subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over North America is analyzed....     

Estimation of multi-scale temporal variability of air and water temperature in the northeastern part of the Black Sea

Standard deviations of mesoscale, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual fluctuations of the air and water temperature are calculated from long-term measurements. The contributions of each type of fluctuation to the total temporal variability are estimated. The intraannual cycle of variability of monthly (long-term) means of mesoscale and synoptic fluctuations is considered.     

Steady-state frictional geostrophic circulation in a one-layer ocean model with thermodynamics

The governing equations are developed for a steady-state frictional geostrophic inhomogeneous 1.5-layer ocean model, with horizontal velocity field that is linearly sheared in the vertical coordinate. We show that in the adiabatic, thermally non-diffusive limit there are an infinite number of solutions for the temperature and depth fields of the subtropical gyre even with the constraint of identical mass within each temperature range. In the non-adiabatic case, a unique subtropical gyre solution exists that can exhibit a temperature front, containing an unbounded meridional gradient, in the northwest corner of the solution domain. The role of mixing of enthalpy in the western boundary layer (WBL) region was investigated by comparing the two extreme cases of no mixing and complete mixing of enthalpy in this region. Also investigated was the dependence of the meridional heat transport on the air–sea heat exchange coefficient, κ. The temperature field was found to be strongly influenced by mixing. However, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the heat transport is similar in the model with and without mixing. The heat transport attains a single local maximum at κ=κ_c, that lies within values that are oceanographically relevant.     

Wind variability in the northwestern part of the Black Sea from the offshore fixed platform observation data

The statistically ensured estimates of characteristics of temporal variability of wind speed and wind direction are obtained on the basis of observations carried out in 1996–2001 at the offshore fixed platform in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The maximum values of monthly mean wind speed (more than 8 m/s) are registered in the cold half-year and the minimum ones (～4 m/s), in summer. The moderate winds of northern and southern directions dominate during the whole year. Using the Pearson’s chi-squared test, it is demonstrated that the wind speed follows the normal distribution law during the most part of observation period. The largest deviations from the normal law are timed to the periods of existence of intensive large-scale anomalies in the ocean-atmosphere system. A significant alternation of both synoptic and lower-frequency intramonthly wind speed fluctuations with typical periods of ～10–15 days is revealed. Their peak amplitude was registered in the fall and winter season of 1997/98, i.e., it was observed during the mature phase of one of the most intensive El Niños during the whole period of instrumental observations. At that time, the energy of intramonthly low-frequency wind speed fluctuations (～4 m²/s²) was equal to the energy of fluctuations within the synoptic range of the spectrum.