基于联系数和洛伦兹曲线的水资源空间均衡评价方法

为充分体现评价过程中各子区域对整个区域水资源空间均衡状况的定量影响,提出了基于联系数和洛伦兹曲线的评价方法。分别构建水资源总量与耕地面积、人口数量、第二产业GDP 3对匹配关系的洛伦兹曲线,计算基于纵向距离的评价样本值;应用集对分析理论计算样本值联系数并确定均衡等级,同时与基尼系数法对比。安徽省的实证研究结果表明:安徽省2011—2018年水资源总量—耕地面积、水资源总量—人口数量、水资源总量—第二产业GDP均总体呈现空间不均衡状态;水资源总量—耕地面积、水资源总量—人口数量的均衡程度有所改善,而水资源总量—第二产业GDP均衡形势仍较为严峻,亟需改善。该研究为区域水资源空间均衡定量评价提供了新的有效途径。     

基于有限区间联系云的围岩稳定性评价模型

围岩稳定性评价指标分布具有有限区间分布和等级边界模糊特性。基于联系数理论和云理论的耦合方法,探讨了能考虑指标区间分布特点和级别界限模糊转换特性的围岩稳定性分类联系云模型。首先探讨了有限区间内的联系云模型,以描述有限区间内的围岩稳定性分类指标的模糊性和转换态势,结合样本指标权重和联系概率概念分析实测评价指标对各等级的综合确定度,判定了样本的围岩稳定性级别。实例应用和与其他方法对比分析结果表明,该模型应用于围岩稳定性评价是有效可行的,取得较好效果,且弥补了理想云模型不能整体描述有限区间分布的指标间确定和不确定关系的缺陷,拓广了云模型应用的适应性。     

煤矿长斜井TBM施工安全风险分析与趋势预测

对煤矿长斜井盾构机（tunnel boring machine,TBM）施工的风险因素进行了识别,建立了二层次的风险评估指标体系,并确定了风险等级分类标准,利用熵权法确定风险指标的权向量,进而建立了基于集对分析法的煤矿长斜井TBM施工同异反评估模型。在此基础上利用偏联系数的理论确定了文中五元偏联系数的计算方法,根据改进的集对势理论给出风险趋势的预测方法。利用该模型对台格庙矿区煤矿长斜井（1#、2#实验井）TBM施工风险进行了评估与趋势预测。研究表明该模型与方法在煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险分析中是有效的、实用的,可为煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险分析与预测提供一种新的途径。     

甘肃省县级行政区水资源适宜度指标评价

通过建立全省87县级行政区水资源丰度指标评价体系,对水资源适宜度进行研究,得出县级行政区水资源适宜度结论,为全省主体功能区划定提供水资源可利用量指标的直接参考依据。     

基于熵权的集对分析法在水环境质量评价中的应用

为了合理的评价河流水质,根据集对分析原理,基于熵权建立了六元联系数水环境质量评价模型。应用该模型对平凉市主要河段8个监测断面5项水质指标进行评价,结果表明:模型评价客观、合理,符合平凉市实际情况。评价结果对今后河长制考核评估、保护当地水资源、防治地方水污染、改善区域水环境、修复泾河水生态具有一定的指导意义和参考价值。     

开采建筑物损坏的集对分析——可变模糊集综合评价模型

应用集对分析和可变模糊集理论,探讨了开采建筑物损坏等级的综合评价模型,建立了以集对模糊联系度构建可变模糊集差异度的新方法,实例及同其他方法对比应用,表明了应用集对分析—可变模糊集方法评价开采建筑物损坏等级,可简化评价过程和提高定量分析的可靠性,评价结果更接近样本的实际情况。      

通辽市水资源承载能力的多层次多指标可变模糊评价研究

基于水资源承载能力概念和通辽市水资源利用基本情况,构建了水资源可承载能力评价的递阶层次指标体系.结合可变模糊集理论,建立了通辽市多层次水资源承载能力可变模糊评价模型,并对通辽市各行政区现状年和规划年的水资源承载能力进行评价.结果表明,通辽市水资源承载能力全区均较弱,产业结构不合理和水资源重复利用率低是造成水资源承载能力低的主要因素.对2020规划年的评价结果显示,节水条件下通辽市水资源承载能力有所改善,但基本仍较弱,需通过合理调整产业结构、提高水资源利用率等来提高水资源承载能力.     

区域地下水资源承载能力评价理论与方法研究

开展地下水资源承载能力评价,对于认识区域地下水资源禀赋和开发利用的空间分布状况、建立国家-省级资源环境承载能力监测预警机制、支撑面向国土空间规划的“双评价”研究等具有重要意义。目前,地下水资源承载能力的评价理论与方法仍处于探索之中,在实际工作中缺乏统一的依据。本文基于自然-社会经济系统的承载协调理论,定义了地下水资源承载能力的内涵。从地下水资源的数量、质量、生态属性出发,分别建立了承载本底、承载状态两个层次的区域地下水资源承载能力评价指标体系,确定了评价指标的分级标准和评价流程。以地下水可开采资源模数、地下水开采程度作为基础指标,来初步判断承载本底、承载状态等级,而后利用地下水背景质量等级对承载本底初步结果进行修正,根据区域实际情况选取地下水污染程度、地面沉降程度、海水入侵程度、土壤盐渍化程度等一项或多项指标作为承载状态的修正指标,对承载状态初步结果进行修正;综合承载本底、承载状态评价结果,确定区域地下水资源承载能力。应用此方法研究了京津冀地区的地下水资源承载能力,结果发现京津冀地区地下水资源承载能力水平整体偏弱,202个县级行政区中承载能力强的有18个,较强的有72个,中等的有19个,较弱的有36个,弱的有57个。承载能力强、较强的县级行政区几乎全部位于冀南丘陵山区、冀中山前冲积平原;承载能力弱、较弱的县级行政区主要分布在冀北山地丘陵区、冀东滨海冲积海积平原。京津冀地区地下水资源承载能力研究实例表明该方法具备可操作性,评价结果合理。     

我国县级以上行政区界水资源水量监测情况调查

研究全面收集了全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的河流、行政区界、水文测站等基础信息,较为客观系统地分析了目前我国县级及以上行政区界水资源水量监测的现有覆盖率、潜在覆盖率和目标覆盖率.结果表明,各省县级以上行政区界现有水量监测能力普遍不高,平均覆盖率仅为40.9％,空间上呈现东南地区覆盖率较高,西北地区较低的特征;考虑有条件...     

多元联系数在地基处理方案模糊选优中的应用

联系分量多于3个的集对分析联系数称为多元联系数,常用的多元联系数有四元联系数和五元联系数等等。用五元联系数中的a、b、c、d、e5个联系分量分别表述地基处理方案模糊评语“好”、“较好”、“一般”、“较差”、“差”对应的指标值,建立各个方案的五元联系数,再利用五元联系数系统态势排序等信息作进一步处理,在得到各个地基处理方案优劣排序的同时,还可以得到方案的优劣属性级别。     

三角模糊数型边坡支护方案评价模型及其应用

由于边坡支护方案评价时掌握的信息不充分,资料不全,加之问题本身的复杂性、不确定性以及人类思维的模糊性,方案的评价值往往难以精确表达,用三角模糊数的形式表示更合理。针对属性值用三角模糊数表示的边坡支护方案优选问题,提出了一种基于集对分析联系数的三角模糊数型方案综合评价模型。首先,根据集对分析中的联系数理论,利用三角模糊数的中值及上下确界所限定的取值区间,将三角模糊数转化为联系数;然后,根据联系数的加法和乘法定义,建立了联系数决策模型;按照综合决策值大小即可得到最优方案。该模型既考虑了三角模糊数的中值,又兼顾了三角模糊数的上下确界,即联系数的差异度,更具有客观性、合理性。实例应用表明,该模型算理清晰,计算简便,结论与实际相符。     

基于GIS的地下水资源分区研究及承载本底评价

地下水资源承载本底与自然属性密切相关,地下水资源分区是评价地下水资源承载本底的重要基础工作。文章以新一轮地下水资源评价成果和主要平原盆地、部分省（区市）地下水资源最新调查评价成果为基础,综合地形地貌、构造单元、气候分带、地表水流域、含水层介质等多项指标,把地表水和地下水看作一个整体,将全国划分为26个一级区、143个二级区、412个三级区。通过将地下水资源分区与县级行政区划耦合确定了4 942个计算单元,利用地下水可开采模数指标,实现了地下水资源承载本底评价由以自然单元的评价到县级行政单元的成果表达,从而建立了地下水资源承载本底评价空间数据基础,可服务于地下水资源承载能力动态评价和地下水合理开发利用与管理。地下水资源承载本底结果显示:我国地下水资源承载本底总体表现出平原盆地区为中-高水平,北方干旱区为低水平,区域差异性较大。承载本底等级为高、较高、中、较低、低的县（区、市）分别为774,332,798,387,573个,面积占比分别为11.15%、5.87%、19.56%、12.09%、52.34%,基本反映出我国地下水资源禀赋条件和区域分布规律。     

Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.     

Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Beijing,China

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.

     

中国农业广义水资源利用系数及时空格局分析

为统一核算区域蓝水、绿水资源有效利用程度,构建了农业广义水资源利用系数（E_g）指标,核算中国31个省区粮食生产中的E_g,并基于空间自相关和通径分析方法对其时空格局及成因进行分析。中国1998-2010年E_g为0.588,大部分省区呈随时间增大趋势;E_g相似的省区在空间上显著地聚集,高值省区聚集于西部,低值省区集中于东南地区,且空间聚集现象呈减弱趋势;农业生产管理水平对E_g的影响大于气候要素,社会经济条件影响最小。结合广义水资源利用状况,西南省区可扩大粮食生产规模以发挥E_g较大优势,东北与华北粮食主产区应通过提高E_g以保障粮食安全和水资源可持续利用。研究可发展农业用水效率评价理论同时为国家粮食生产与水资源管理策略的制定提供参考。     

Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation

To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals. Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural disaster systems.     

A novel set pair analysis method based on variable weights for liquefaction evaluation

To ensure the safety of structures, high-speed railway and highway founded on liquefiable soils, liquefaction evaluation is a primary task. Herein, a dynamic set pair analysis method based on variable weights is introduced to assess liquefaction. A concept of connection degree of set pair consisting of the evaluation sample and the classification standard was described to interpret the uncertainty of liquefaction and relationship. Moreover, based on reward and penalty mechanism, state variable vectors were presented to assign composite weights of evaluation indicators in order to take into account impacts of indicator variation. And the integrated connection degree to each grade was calculated to evaluate liquefaction of the evaluated cases. Results from practical example and comparison with field investigation and extension method indicated that this proposed model used to evaluate liquefaction is feasible and effective. In addition, it can quantitatively describe liquefaction hierarchy of evaluated samples.     

用灰色关联度法判断滕南矿区地下水系统水力联系

判断各地水下系统的水力联系是供水水文地质勘察中十分翻天覆地的工作，它是正确建立水文地质概念模型，评价地下水资源的前提，本文引进灰色系统理论，借助于水化学资料，应用灰色联联度法，对滕南矿区侏罗系地下水各系统水力联系进行判断，取得了理论效果。