Rossby波模型对西北太平洋海表面高度年际变异的可预测性研究

根据海洋Rossby波的西传特性, 使用一阶斜压Rossby波模型对北太平洋海表面高度的年际变异进行了回报和预测研究。回报结果表明, Rossby 波模型能够较好地模拟北太平洋海表面高度的年际变异。尤其是黑潮延伸区的下游, 模拟结果与卫星观测的相关系数达到0.8以上。预测结果表明, Rossby 波模型在两个纬向分布的海域有显著的预报能力, 分别位于高纬度中部和副热带环流西部。前者可提前5—6年, 后者可提前2—4年。此外, 重点开展了Rossby波模型在西北太平洋的预报能力研究。结果表明, Rossby波模型对中国的边缘海有着很好的预测能力, 包括南海北部、台湾以东和东海黑潮海域, 分别在提前32、40和52个月时能取得最佳的预测效果。     

Rossby波对菲律宾以东太平洋海平面年际变化的影响研究

采用能够反映斜压大洋对大尺度海表面风应力旋度响应的一层半约化重力模式研究菲律宾以东太平洋海区Rossby波与海平面年际变化的关系.模式分别利用海区东侧验潮站和卫星高度计海表面数据作初始东边界,对Rossby波西传路径上的风应力旋度进行积分,得到西侧海平面信号.结果发现,模拟的海平面信号跟验潮站和卫星高度计资料相关性很高,并能模拟出海平面年际变化特征和低(高)异常信号由东侧产生并向西传播的过程,反映了一阶斜压Rossby波对菲律宾以东太平洋海区年际海平面变化的动力机制.     

Calculation of Interannual Variations of Sea Level in the Subtropical North Pacific

The interannual variations of sea level at Chichi-jima and five other islands in the subtropical North Pacific are calculated for 1961–95 with a model of Rossby waves excited by wind. The Rossby-wave forcing is significant east of 140°E. Strong forcing of upwelling (downwelling) Rossby wave occurs during El Niño (La Niña) and warm (cold) water anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The first and second baroclinic modes of Rossby wave are more strongly generated than the barotropic mode in the study area. A higher vertical mode of Rossby wave propagates more slowly and is more decayed by eddy dissipation. The best coefficient of vertical eddy dissipation is determined by comparing the calculated sea level with observation. The variation in sea level at Chichi-jima is successfully calculated, in particular for the long-term change of the mean level between before and after 1986 with a rise in 1986 as well as the variations with periods of two to four years after 1980. It is concluded that variations of sea level at Chichi-jima are produced by wind-forced Rossby waves, the first baroclinic wave primarily and the barotropic wave secondly. The calculation for other islands is less successful. Degree of the success in calculation almost corresponds to a spatial difference in quantity of wind data, and seems to be determined by quality of wind data.     

ENSO-induced interannual variability in the southeastern South China Sea

In this study, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced interannual variability in the South China Sea (SCS) is documented using outputs from an eddy-resolving data-assimilating model. It is suggested that during an El Niño (La Niña) event, off-equatorial upwelling (downwelling) Rossby waves induced by Pacific equatorial wind anomalies impinge on the Philippine Islands and excite upwelling (downwelling) coastal Kelvin waves that propagate northward along the west coast of the Philippines after entering the SCS through the Mindoro Strait. The coastal Kelvin waves may then induce negative (positive) sea level anomalies in the southeastern SCS and larger (smaller) volume transport through the Mindoro and Luzon Straits during an El Niño (La Niña) event.     

The strengthening East Australian Current, its eddies and biological effects — an introduction and overview

The poleward flowing East Australian Current (EAC) is characterised by its separation from the coast, 100-200 nautical miles north of Sydney, to form the eastward flowing Tasman Front and a southward flowing eddy field. The separation zone greatly influences coastal ecosystems for the relatively narrow continental shelf (only 15-50 km wide), particularly between 32-34°S. In this region the continental shelf has a marked shift in the seasonal temperature-salinity relationship and elevated surface nitrate concentrations. This current parallels the portion of the coast where Australia’s population is concentrated and has a long history of scientific research. However, understanding of physical and biological processes driven by the EAC, particularly in linking circulation to ecosystems, is limited. In this special issue of 16 papers on the EAC, we examine the effects of climatic wind-stress forced ocean dynamics on EAC transport variability and coastal sea level, from ENSO to multi-decadal time scales; eddy formation and structure; fine scale connectivity and larval retention. Comparisons with the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current on Australia’s west coast show differences in ecosystem productivity that can be attributed to the underlying physics in each region. On average there is double the chlorophyll a concentration on the east coast than the west. In comparison to the Leeuwin, the EAC may have less local retention of larvae and act as a partial barrier to onshore transport, which may also be related to the local spawning and early life history of small pelagic fish on each coast. Inter-annual variations in the EAC transport produce a detectable sea-level signal in Sydney Harbour, which could provide a useful fisheries index as does the Fremantle sea level and Leeuwin Current relationship. The EAC’s eddy structure and formation by the EAC are examined. A particular cold-core eddy is shown to have a “tilt” towards the coast, and that during a rotation the flow of particles may rise up to the euphotic zone and then down beneath. In a warm-core eddy, surface flooding is shown to produce a new shallower surface mixed layer and promote algal growth. An assessment of plankton data from 1938-1942 showed that the local, synoptic conditions had to be incorporated before any comparison with the present. There are useful relationships of water mass characteristics in the Tasman Sea and separation zone with larval fish diversity and abundance, as well as with long-line fisheries. These fisheries-pelagic habitat relationships are invaluable for fisheries management, as well as for climate change assessments.There is further need to examine the EAC influence on rainfall, storm activity, dust deposition, and on the movements by fish, sharks and whales. The Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) has provided new infrastructure to determine the changing behaviour of the EAC and its bio-physical interaction with the coasts and estuaries. The forecasting and hindcasting capability developed under the Bluelink project has provided a new tool for data synthesis and dynamical analysis. The impact of a strengthening EAC and how it influences the livelihoods of over half the Australian population, from Brisbane to Sydney, Hobart and Melbourne, is just being realised.     

Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current revealed by HF ocean radars,coastal tide gauges,and bottom-mounted ADCP

Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current (SWC) are investigated using data obtained by high frequency (HF) ocean radars, coastal tide gauges, and a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The HF radars clearly captured the seasonal variations in the surface current fields of the SWC. Almost the same seasonal cycle was repeated in the period from August 2003 to March 2007, although interannual variations were also discernible. In addition to the annual and interannual variations, the SWC exhibited subinertial variations with a period of 5–20 days. The surface transport by the SWC was significantly correlated with the sea level difference between the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk for both the seasonal and subinertial variations, indicating that the SWC is driven by the sea level difference between the two seas. The generation mechanism of the subinertial variation is discussed using wind data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. The subinertial variations in the SWC were significantly correlated with the meridional wind stress component over the region. The subinertial variations in the sea level difference and surface current delay from the meridional wind stress variations by one or two days. Sea level difference through the strait caused by wind-generated coastally trapped waves (CTWs) along the east coast of Sakhalin and west coast of Hokkaido is considered to be a possible mechanism causing the subinertial variations in the SWC.     

Interannual Variations of Sea Level at the Nansei Islands and Volume Transport of the Kuroshio Due to Wind Changes

Interannual variations of sea level at the Nansei Islands and volume transport of the Kuroshio during 1967–95 are calculated by integrating variations carried by windforced Rossby waves. Effects of eddy dissipation and ocean ridges are considered. Ridge effect is inferred by comparing between the calculated and observed sea levels. The calculation is satisfactory to sea levels and Kuroshio transport for the whole period. They are mostly caused by Rossby waves forced by wind and modified by the ridges, and are due to barotropic wave primarily and the first baroclinic wave secondly. The calculated Kuroshio transport well represents variations of several-year scales with maximums in respective duration of the large meander (LM) of the Kuroshio, as well as bi-decadal variation that transport was small during the non-LM period of 1967–75 and large during the LM-dominant period of 1975–91. Mean volume transport of the subtropical gyre is estimated at 57 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s^–1) and divided by the Nansei Shoto Ridge into those of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (25.5 Sv) and a subsurface current east of this ridge (31.5 Sv). The Subtropical Countercurrent and a southward deep current east of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge are estimated at 16 Sv and 7 Sv, respectively. The calculated transports of the Kuroshio and other subtropical currents reach maximums at every El Niño event due to strong excitement of upwelling barotropic Rossby wave.     

Interannual and Decadal Variabilities of NPIW Salinity Minimum Core Observed along JMA’s Hydrographic Repeat Sections

We investigated the variation of the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) distribution in the western North Pacific, focusing on the intermediate salinity minimum (S < 34.2) core observed along the meridional hydrographic sections including the 137°E repeat section by the Japan Meteorological Agency. This core is a cross-section of a low salinity tongue extending westward along the recirculation in the subtropical gyre. The core size shows remarkable variabilities in interannual and decadal time scales. The salinity change in the density layer during the period of core expansion (shrinking) represents the spatial salinity change in the tongue toward the west (east). Thus, we conclude that the core size variation is associated with the zonal wobble of the tongue having thicker distribution to the east, rather than temporal changes of the water mass itself. The core size at 137°E is well correlated with the meridional gradient of the depth in the isopycnal surface at the salinity minimum representing the recirculation intensity, suggesting a relation with the intensity of the subtropical gyre. A significant lag-correlation between the gradient and the wind forcing over the North Pacific suggests that the first mode baroclinic Rossby waves excited in the central North Pacific propagated westward to change the intensity of the recirculation in interannual time scales. In decadal time scales, it is found that the wind stress curl and heat flux fields in the North Pacific precede the recirculation by about 11 years.     

太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素分析

采用经验模态分解法对太平洋沿岸验潮站的月平均海平面资料进行处理,结合T/P高度计资料、Church(2004)重构SSH资料、Ishii(2005)月均海温资料,研究太平洋海平面年际、年代际变化以及资料长度内海平面变化趋势。太平洋沿岸海平面总体呈上升趋势,平均上升速率为1.4 mm/a,趋势项分布有明显的区域性和纬度特征。ENSO对太平洋地区海平面年际变化有显著影响,海平面年际变化与Nino3指数在西(东)太平洋为负(正)相关,海平面年际变化与Nino3指数的相关性在热带太平洋最大,并随着纬度升高相关性减弱,且不同地区年际变化有滞后ENSO时间不等的最大相关。海平面年际变化与PDO指数在西(东)太平洋为负(正)相关,海平面与PDO的相关性分布有区域性和随时间演变特征。年代际变化对目前使用卫星高度计资料分析海平面长期趋势项的预测有直接影响,可能完全掩盖海平面长期变化趋势。     

Interannual variability of Kelvin wave propagation in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean,the coastal Bay of Bengal and the southeastern Arabian Sea during 1993–2006

The observed variability of the Kelvin waves and their propagation in the equatorial wave guide of the Indian Ocean and in the coastal wave guides of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) on seasonal to interannual time scales during years 1993–2006 is examined utilizing all the available satellite and in-situ measurements. The Kelvin wave regime inferred from the satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) shows a distinct annual cycle composed of two pairs of alternate upwelling (first one occurring during January–March and the second one occurring during August–September) and downwelling (first one occurring during April–June and the second one occurring during October–December) Kelvin waves that propagate eastward along the equator and hit the Sumatra coast and bifurcate. The northern branches propagate counterclockwise over varied distances along the coastal wave guide of the BoB. The potential mechanisms that contribute to the mid-way termination of the first upwelling and the first downwelling Kelvin waves in the wave guide of the BoB are hypothesized. The second downwelling Kelvin wave alone reaches the southeastern AS, and it shows large interannual variability caused primarily by similar variability in the equatorial westerly winds during boreal fall. The westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves triggered by the second downwelling Kelvin wave off the eastern rim of the BoB also shows large interannual variability in the near surface thermal structure derived from SODA analysis. The strength of the equatorial westerlies driven by the east–west gradient of the heat sources in the troposphere appears to be a critical factor in determining the observed interannual variability of the second downwelling Kelvin wave in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, the coastal BoB, and the southeastern AS.     

Linkages among halocline variability,shelf-basin interaction,and wind regimes in the Beaufort Sea demonstrated in pan-Arctic Ocean modeling framework

To address the mechanisms controlling halocline variability in the Beaufort Sea, the relationship between halocline shoaling/deepening and surface wind fields on seasonal to decadal timescales was investigated in a numerical experiment. Results from a pan-Arctic coupled sea ice-ocean model demonstrate reasonable performances for interannual and decadal variations in summer sea ice extent in the entire Arctic and in freshwater content in the Canada Basin. Shelf-basin interaction associated with Pacific summer and winter transport depends on basin-scale wind patterns and can have a significant influence on halocline variability in the southern Beaufort Sea. The eastward transport of fresh Pacific summer water along the northern Alaskan coast and Ekman downwelling north of the shelf break are commonly enhanced by cyclonic wind in the Canada Basin. On the other hand, basin-wide anti-cyclonic wind induces Ekman upwelling and blocks the eastward current in the Beaufort shelf-break region. Halocline shoaling/deepening due to shelf-water transport and surface Ekman forcing consequently occur in the same direction. North of the Barrow Canyon mouth, the springtime down-canyon transport of Pacific winter water, which forms by sea ice production in the Alaskan coastal polynya, thickens the halocline layer. The model result indicates that the penetration of Pacific winter water prevents the local upwelling of underlying basin water to the surface layer, especially in basin-scale anti-cyclonic wind periods.     

Mechanism of currents through the straits of the Japan Sea: Mean state and seasonal variation

The mechanism governing the mean state and the seasonal variation of the transports through the straits of the Japan Sea is studied using a newly presented, simple analytical model and a basin scale general circulation model (GCM). The GCM reproduces the transports through the straits of the Japan Sea realistically owing to its fine horizontal resolution of about 20 km and realistic topography. A series of experiments conducted by changing surface forcing shows that the annual mean wind-driven circulation in the North Pacific Ocean is most responsible for the formation of the mean transports. It is also found that the seasonal variation of the alongshore component of monsoonal wind stress over the North Pacific basin, especially that over the Okhotsk Sea, is responsible for the seasonal variation of the transports. The simple analytical model can explain these simulated features very well. The physical concept of this model is based on the formation of the around-island circulation through the adjustment of coastally trapped waves and Rossby waves and geostrophic control at the narrow straits. It solves the sea surface heights (SSHs) at the edge of each strait and the transport through it. The value of the line integral of the SSH along the island is determined by the baroclinic Rossby waves approaching the island from the east and the alongshore wind stress around the island. The basin scale seasonal variation of SSH along the coast induced by the variation of the alongshore monsoonal wind stress can also be incorporated into this model by giving the SSH anomaly at the northeastern point of the Soya Strait. Thus, it is suggested that both the mean state and the seasonal variation are caused mainly by wind stress forcing. Minor modification by the seasonal heat flux forcing brings the amplitude and the phase of the seasonal variation closer to the observed values.     

黄海春季海雾的年际变化研究

利用黄海沿岸有代表性测站的常规观测资料和NCEP／NCAR资料，对黄海春季海雾年际变化进行了分析发现，雾多年份冬季环流减弱、低层流场向黄海为偏南向流入、中低层水汽充足、层结稳定；有雾时气温水温差在0．5—2．2℃范围内，地面风向以S-ESE为主。分析结果表明，在春季黄海雾形成过程中，高空环流提供了暖湿空气的输送条件，低层流场及地面风场的分布有利于来自西太平洋低纬地区的水汽向黄海海区输送；中低层水汽充沛，昙结稳定，水气温差在一定范围内有利于海雾的形成和维持。     

热带太平洋海平面低频变化

本文选取ECMWF ORAS4再分析数据对1959-2015年热带太平洋海平面的低频变化进行了分析。热带太平洋海平面年际变化第一模态反映了ENSO爆发阶段的海平面变化,热带东、西太平洋变化反相,其时间序列与Niño3.4指数高度相关。海平面第二模态则体现了El Niño爆发前后热带太平洋暖水的输运过程。El Niño爆发前热带西太平洋暖水聚集的位置,以及爆发后暖水向赤道外输运的位置在两类El Niño事件中均有所不同。此外,ENSO的周期在近半个世纪发生了显著的年代际变化,这一变化与热带太平洋的年代际变化有关。热带太平洋的年代际变化对海平面趋势变化也有着显著的影响。卫星高度计观测到的近20年海平面的快速上升（下降）正是由20世纪90年代后热带太平洋频繁的位相转换引起的。     

大气环流优势模态对北极海冰变化的响应Ⅰ.北极涛动

利用美国冰雪中心海冰密集度数据,分析了1979-2012年北极海冰面积的时间变化特征,发现北极海冰具有显著的年代际变化特征,分别在1997和2007年前后存在两次年代际转型突变点,相应的大气环流优势模态——北极涛动(AO)也存在显著的时空变化。1979-1996年阶段海冰下降趋势较弱并以较强的年际振荡为主,AO模态较强且显示出低频振荡特征;1997-2006年阶段北极海冰快速减退趋势占优,同时伴随着较弱的年际振荡,AO模态减弱且振荡周期缩短;2007-2012年阶段海冰范围较快下降同时具有极强的年际振荡,方差变化是前两个阶段的2~3倍,AO不仅强度加强,空间结构也发生了变化,极涡中心分别向格陵兰岛和白令海峡一侧延伸,这种结构有利于极地冷空气入侵欧洲和北美。利用ECHAM5大气模式进行的数值试验结果也证实了较强振荡的海冰强迫对AO模态的改变具有决定作用。     

Sea level response to ENSO along the central California coast: how the 1997–1998 event compares with the historic record

Long-term monthly sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from central California show that during winter months, positive anomalies are associated with El Niño events and the negative ones with La Niña events. There is no significant impact on monthly mean anomalies associated with Pacific decadal oscillations, although there is a tendency for more extreme events and greater variance during positive decadal oscillations. The very strong 1997–1998 El Niño was analyzed with respect to the long-term historic record to assess the forcing mechanisms for sea level and SST. Beginning in the spring of 1997, we observed several long-period (>30 days) fluctuations in daily sea level with amplitudes of over 10 cm at San Francisco, California. Fluctuations of poleward long-period alongshore wind stress anomalies (AWSA) are coherent with the sea level anomalies. However, the wind stress cannot entirely account for the observed sea level signals. The sea level fluctuations are also correlated with sea level fluctuations observed further south at Los Angeles and Tumaco, Columbia, which showed a poleward phase propagation of the sea level signal. We suggest that the sea level fluctuations were, to a greater degree, forced by the passage of remotely generated and coastally trapped waves that were generated along the equator and propagated to the north along the west coast of North America. However, both local and remote AWSA can significantly modulate the sea level signals. The arrival of coastally trapped waves began in the spring of 1997, which is earlier than previous strong El Niño events such as the 1982–1983 event.     

Interannual variations in the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent

The Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent (HLCC) is an eastward surface current flowing against the broad westward flow of the North Pacific subtropical circulation. Analyses of satellite altimeter data over 16 years revealed that the HLCC is characterized by strong interannual variations. The strength and meridional location of the HLCC axis varied significantly year by year. The eastward velocity of the HLCC was higher when the location of the axis was stable. Mechanisms for the interannual variations were explored by analyses of the altimeter data and results from a simple baroclinic model. The interannual variations in the strength of the HLCC did not correlate with those of the wind stress curl (WSC) dipole formed on the leeward side of the Hawaii Islands, although the WSC dipole has been recognized as the generation mechanism of the HLCC. Meridional gradients of the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) across the HLCC generated by baroclinic Rossby waves propagating westward from the east of the Hawaii Islands were suggested as a possible mechanism for the interannual variations in the HLCC. The spatial patterns in the observed SSHAs were reproduced by a linear baroclinic Rossby wave model forced by wind fields from a numerical weather prediction model. Further analysis of the wind data suggested that positive and negative anomalies of WSC associated with changes in the trade winds in the area east of the Hawaii Islands are a major forcing for generating SSHAs that lead to the HLCC variations with a time lag of about 1 year.     

Numerical Experiments of the Influences of the Transport Variation through the Korea Strait on the Japan/East Sea Upper Layer Circulation

Numerical experiments were performed in order to investigate the effects of variations of the transport through the Korea/Tsushima Strait, an inlet of the Japan/East Sea, on the upper layer circulation in the JES based on a 10-month transport observation from May 1999 to March 2000 (Perkins et al., 2000). All external forcings to the model were annual mean fields, except the transport variation through the Korea Strait. In the experiments where the periodic variation of the transport repeated continuously sinusoidally by several periods, strong variability of sea surface height (SSH) was detected in the region extending from the Korea Strait to the Japanese coast due to the geostrophy of the buoyancy forcing at the Korea Strait. The region along the Korean coast is more sensitive to the long-term variations than the short-term (≤60-day period) ones. In two experiments forced by realistic and monthly mean transport, the difference of rms of sea surface height was largest at the Japanese coast and relatively large at the East Korean Warm Current separation region (128∼130°E, 39∼41°N) and to the east of Yamato Rise. The distribution of difference of eddy kinetic energy at 100 m depth between the two experiments was similar to that of the rms of SSH. In the distributions of mean SSH and mean kinetic energy at 100 m depth the realistic transport invokes eddy variability to interact with mean current resulting in the changes of the mean SSH and the mean kinetic energy at the East Korean Warm Current separation region, but it does not produce conspicuous changes in the mean fields of entire JES compared with the mean fields forced by the seasonal transport.     

Seasonal and interannual variations in the East Sakhalin current revealed by TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data

Seasonal and interannual variations in the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) are investigated using ten-year records of the sea level anomaly (SLA) observed by the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter. The T/P SLA clearly documents seasonal and interannual variations in the ESC along the east coast of Sakhalin Island, although sea ice masks the region from January to April. Estimates of surface current velocity anomaly derived from T/P SLA are in good agreement with drifting buoy observations. The ESC is strong in winter, with a typical current velocity of 30–40 cm s⁻¹ in December, and almost disappears in summer. Southward flow of the ESC is confined to the shelf and slope region and consists of two velocity cores. These features of the ESC are consistent with short-term observations reported in previous studies. Analysis of the ten-year records of T/P SLA confirms that the structure of the ESC is maintained each winter and the seasonal cycle is repeated every year, although the strength of the ESC shows large interannual variations. Seasonal and interannual variations in the ESC are discussed in relation to wind-driven circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk, using wind stress and wind stress curl fields derived from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data and a scatterometer-derived wind product. Seasonal and interannual variations of the anticyclonic eddy in the Kuril Basin are also revealed using T/P SLA.     

Interannual and Decadal Sea-Level Variations along the Japanese Coast

Interannual (an annual to a decadal) and decadal sea-level variations along the Japanese coast have been investigated on the basis of monthly mean sea level during the period from 1951 to 1995. For the interannual variation, the Japanese coast is divided into six regions according to a regional similarity of sea level by using the cluster analysis, which is close to Tsumura's (1963) classification. The first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the Interannual variation is the simultaneous rising and falling of the sea level along the Japanese coast. The first mode shows the largest variation in winter and has a negative correlation with the wintertime monsoon index; this suggests that the first mode is associated with a steric height change depending on the wintertime cooling intensity. The EOF second mode represents the Kuroshio large meander because strong negative eigenvectors are seen on the southeast coast of Japan and the time coefficient shows a high correlation with the Kushimoto-Uragami sea-level difference. For the decadal sea-level variation, the EOF first mode is a bi-decadal variation exhibiting simultaneous rising and falling of the sea level for the entire Japanese coast. The time coefficient of the first mode shows the first minimum in 1965, reaches a maximum in 1975, and decreases to the second minimum in 1984. The decrease from the mid-1970s and the increase from the mid-1980s to early 1990s correspond to the climatic regime shifts occurring in the same periods.