<Emphasis Type="Italic">An </Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">Inconvenient Truth</Emphasis>: a focus on its portrayal of the hydrologic cycle

An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) has earned Al Gore an Oscar and a share of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and has been widely acclaimed by the mass media. However, significant errors exist in the film, owing to alarmism and exaggeration. As this forum does not provide for a detailed examination of these errors, this paper will focus only on the portrayal of the hydrologic cycle by AIT—precipitation and floods, soil moisture and droughts, and storminess. AIT argues that precipitation and intense rainfalls, floods, droughts, and the total number, intensity, and duration of tropical cyclones have all increased due exclusively to anthropogenically-driven climate change; indeed, AIT paints a picture of near scientific certainty with an overwhelming bias toward catastrophe scenarios. A closer look at the science, however, reveals that the data do not support these claims and that the scientific community is divided as to what the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrologic cycle will be. Thus, the film gives a false impression of both the current state of climate change and that ‘the science is settled’.

<Emphasis Type="Italic">An Inconvenient Truth</Emphasis>: the scientific argument

The movie An Inconvenient Truth is a powerful portrayal of global warming and its impacts. The main scientific argument presented in the movie is for the most part consistent with the weight of scientific evidence, but with some of the main points needing updating, correction, or qualification. The detailed argument relies almost entirely on past and current evidence and neglects almost all information that can be gained from computer models, perhaps because such information would be difficult for a lay audience to grasp, believe, or connect with emotionally. This places an undue weight on current events as signs of ongoing climate change: some such events are apparently not related at all to climate change, while for other specific events the role of global warming is difficult or impossible to establish.     

The usefulness of climate change films

Climate change films are relevant to geographers working in sub-disciplines, such as environmental management, climate science and visual studies. This paper assesses the usefulness of climate change films in light of ongoing debates in science communication and climate change communication about the best-known and most popular movies. Using a handful of English-language films as a sample, the paper asks how the usefulness of climate change films is to be determined if not by sole reference to the accuracy or truthfulness of factual information. The paper demonstrates that all types of films (from award-winning science documentaries to Hollywood blockbusters) have been debated and critiqued, especially in regard to scientific verisimilitude and image integrity. Usefulness is therefore not a matter of film type. Nor is it simply a matter of accuracy, because films containing inaccuracies have their supporters as well. The paper evaluates usefulness in terms of the work that climate change films do and the methods they use. I argue that the two key criteria for determining usefulness are teachability and integrity. In conclusion, I reinforce calls to detach the issue of usefulness from accurate science per se. Useful films are educative, truthful and trustworthy, in ways not always intended by filmmakers.     

Magnetic phase diagrams of Mg-, Fe-, (Cu + Ti)- and Cu-substituted braunite Mn<Superscript>2+</Superscript>Mn<Subscript>6</Subscript><Superscript>3+</Superscript>SiO<Subscript>12</Subscript>

 The magnetic behavior of the Jahn-Teller structure braunite, (Mn²⁺ _1−yM _y )(Mn³⁺ _{6− x} M_x)SiO₁₂, is strongly influenced by the incorporation of elements substituting manganese. Magnetic properties of well-defined synthetic samples were investigated in dependence on the composition. The final results are presented in magnetic phase diagrams. To derive the necessary data, ac susceptibility and magnetization of braunites with the substitutional elements M = Mg, Fe, (Cu+Ti) and Cu were measured. Whereas the antiferromagnetic ordering temperature, T _N , of pure braunite is hardly affected by the substitution of nonmagnetic Mg, it is rapidly suppressed by the substitution of magnetic atoms at the Mn positions. Typically for a concentration (x, y) ≥ 0.7 of the substituted elements, a spin glass phase occurs in the magnetic phase diagrams. Additionally, for the braunite system with Fe³⁺ substitutions, we observe in the concentration range 0.2 < x< 0.7 a double transition from the paramagnetic state, first to the antiferromagnetic state, followed by a transition to a spin glass state at lower temperatures. The unusual change of the magnetic properties with magnetic substitution at the Mn positions is attributed to the peculiar antiferromagnetic structure of braunite, which has been resolved recently. Received: 19 April 2001 / Accepted: 6 September 2001     

Dissolution of Carbonate Sediments Under Rising <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Ocean Acidification: Observations from Devil’s Hole,Bermuda

Rising atmospheric pCO₂ and ocean acidification originating from human activities could result in increased dissolution of metastable carbonate minerals in shallow-water marine sediments. In the present study, in situ dissolution of carbonate sedimentary particles in Devil’s Hole, Bermuda, was observed during summer when thermally driven density stratification restricted mixing between the bottom water and the surface mixed layer and microbial decomposition of organic matter in the subthermocline layer produced pCO₂ levels similar to or higher than those levels anticipated by the end of the 21st century. Trends in both seawater chemistry and the composition of sediments in Devil’s Hole indicate that Mg-calcite minerals are subject to selective dissolution under conditions of elevated pCO₂. The derived rates of dissolution based on observed changes in excess alkalinity and estimates of vertical eddy diffusion ranged from 0.2 mmol to 0.8 mmol CaCO₃ m⁻² h⁻¹. On a yearly basis, this range corresponds to 175–701 g CaCO₃ m⁻² year⁻¹; the latter rate is close to 50% of the estimate of the current average global coral reef calcification rate of about 1,500 g CaCO₃ m⁻² year⁻¹. Considering a reduction in marine calcification of 40% by the year 2100, or 90% by 2300, as a result of surface ocean acidification, the combination of high rates of carbonate dissolution and reduced rates of calcification implies that coral reefs and other carbonate sediment environments within the 21st and following centuries could be subject to a net loss in carbonate material as a result of increasing pCO₂ arising from burning of fossil fuels.     

Magnitude of harvest of Atlantic horseshoe crabs,<Emphasis Type="Italic">Limulus polyphemus</Emphasis>, in Pleasant Bay,Massachusetts

Atlantic horseshoe crabs,Limulus polyphemus, are currently harvested for biomedical, scientific, and bait purposes. In recent years, changes in population abundance and magnitude of harvesting have raised concerns about the status of this resource. We found horseshoe crab harvest in Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts, was selective by sex and size. Biomedical harvest preferred larger individuals and females, the scientific harvest preferred smaller individuals and males, and the bait harvest preferred females. Total 2001 harvest for all purposes accounted for the mortality of ∼1–2% the adult population. Biomedical harvest accounted for the greatest loss of horseshoe crabs from Pleasant Bay, ∼1–1.6% of the total population. Although biomedical harvest had the lowest associated mortality rate (∼10–15%), many more crabs were harvested from Pleasant Bay for biomedical purposes than for other uses. The scientific harvest accounted for the mortality of ∼0.4% of the population, and bait harvest accounted for the smallest mortality at ∼0.06% of the population. Harvest mortality rate was estimated to be lower in Pleasant Bay than in other Cape Cod areas and may be lower than natural mortality in the population. This study is the first qualitative investigation of commercial harvest on horseshoe crab populations and emphasizes that harvest pressures on different populations need to be individually evaluated.     

浅论气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用

全球气候安全问题已经日益突显,为了开展气候安全风险管理,国内学术界最近提出了气候容量的概念。然而,目前对气候容量的科学认识十分有限,甚至还没有比较统一的科学定义,对如何通过气候容量评价开展气候安全风险管理也没有明确的技术思路。在归纳总结以往研究的基础上,进一步讨论了气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用,对气候容量给出了更加科学的定义和合理的诠释,并且分析了气候容量的科学属性和基本特征,探讨了全球气候安全风险的总体趋势,提出了利用气候容量的杠杆作用提升气候安全风险管理和气候资源开发利用水平的初步思路。这对推进我国气候业务对国家非传统安全的服务能力具有科学参考作用。     

A critical political ecology of consensus: On “Teaching Both Sides” of climate change controversies

In the United States, contemporary anti-science education coalitions are increasingly linking climate change and evolution using “teach the controversy” campaigns. Awareness of this political phenomena raises questions about the extent to which portrayals of global warming predictions as mere knowledge claims undermine efforts to increase public understanding of scientific consensus about global warming. This paper uses a critical political ecology framework to explore the problematization of climate change consensus located and performed across discourses of secondary science teaching and learning. Theories of resistance are used to analyze teachers’ everyday experiences with classroom pushback about climate change. Data collection included key informant interviews with state science education stakeholders and on-line survey of 5th–12th grade science teachers in Oklahoma, USA. The article synthesizes the situated discourses of Oklahoma science teachers’ and their attitudes about teaching climate change in the face of public controversy. Our analysis demonstrates teachers marginalized by anti-science controversies but engaged in everyday acts of resistance to political, ideological, and religious norms. Most notably, science teachers re-purpose “teach the controversy” frames as a way to introduce climate change where it might not otherwise be included. We argue that, contextualized within a history of contestation over the teaching of evolution, the practice of teaching ‘both sides’ is an important boundary ordering device that bridges convinced and skeptical discourses in the classroom. This research informs new roles and possibilities for science education on global environmental change by reminding climate scientists, educators, and policy advocates that all climate change knowledge is coproduced.     

Paleoceanography and climate of the Badenian (Middle Miocene, 16.4–13.0 Ma) in the Central Paratethys based on foraminifera and stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) evidence

Benthic foraminifera and stable isotopes analyses revealed changes emerging in the paleoceanographic scenery in the Paratethys. The percentage of inbenthic, oxyphylic taxa and diversity in the benthic foraminiferal assemblage showed increasing food supply (organic matter), decreasing oxygen level and growing stress on the sea floor. Oxygen isotopes measured in planktonic and benthic foraminifera pointed to strengthening stratification during the Badenian period. The carbon isotopes indicated intensified accumulation of light marine organic matter. This increasing stratification trend is especially pronounced by Late Badenian (13.5–13 Ma) when surface water oxygen isotope values are rather negative. A simple two-layer circulation model was worked out for the Badenian Paratethys explaining these characteristic environmental changes. An antiestuarine (lagoonal) circulation is assumed for the Central Paratethys during the Early (16.4–15 Ma) and mid Badenian (15–13.5 Ma). The mid Badenian period of time comprises the short episode of evaporite formation in the Carpathian Foredeep and the Transylvanian Basin. Evidence presented here supported a reversal of circulation to estuarine type after the deposition of salts by Late Badenian (13.5–13 Ma). The Early Badenian antiestuarine circulation is suggested to associate with the high temperatures of the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum, and the Late Badenian estuarine circulation with the cooler period following it.     

BaCO<Subscript>3</Subscript>: high-temperature crystal structures and the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pmcn</Emphasis>→<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis>3<Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis> phase transition at 811°C

The temperature (T) evolution of the barium carbonate (BaCO₃) structure was studied using Rietveld structure refinements based on synchrotron X-ray diffraction and a powdered synthetic sample. BaCO₃ transforms from an orthorhombic, Pmcn, α phase to a trigonal, R3m, β phase at 811°C. The orthorhombic BaCO₃ structure is isotypic with aragonite, CaCO₃. In trigonal R3m BaCO₃, the CO₃ group occupies one orientation and shows no rotational disorder. The average <Ba–O> distances increase while the <C–O> distances decrease linearly with T in the orthorhombic phase. After the 811°C phase transition, the <Ba–O> distances increase while C–O distances decrease. There is also a significant volume change of 2.8% at the phase transition.     

Climate and global change in relation to sustainable development: The challenge to science

In the light of the current worldwide concern on climate and global change and the outcome of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, the paper relates climate and global change to sustainable development. It emphasizes the importance of scientific research in the advancement of knowledge in the related areas. The role of science to socio-economic development is discussed in the context of the symbiotic relationship between science and society. In this connection, the four areas identified by the Rio Conference are discussed.     

Stable isotope variations in a coral (Favia speciosa) from the Gulf of Kutch during 1948–1989 A.D.: Environmental implications

The stable isotopic analyses (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) of a coralFavia speciosa spanning forty two years (1948–89 A.D.), collected from the Pirotan island (22.6°N, 70°E) in the Gulf of Kutch have been carried out to assess its potential for retrieving past environmental changes in this region. It is seen that the summer (minima) δ¹⁸O variations in the coral CaCO₃ are negatively correlated with seasonal (summer) monsoon rainfall in the adjoining region of Kutch and Saurashtra and a qualitative reconstruction of historical rainfall variations in this region can be obtained by analyzing the δ¹⁸O in this species of coral. The observed mean seasonal range of δ¹⁸O variations is 0.34 ±0.17‰ (n = 42), whereas the expected range calculated (from available SST and measured δ¹⁸O of sea water) is ∼ 1.1 ±0.15‰ The difference is due to the coarse resolution of sampling, which can be corrected. The seasonal range in δ¹³C is ∼ l‰ and is explained by changes in: a) the light intensity related to the cloudiness during monsoons and b) phytoplankton productivity.     

First-principles-based calculations of the CaCO<Subscript>3</Subscript>–MgCO<Subscript>3</Subscript> and CdCO<Subscript>3</Subscript>–MgCO<Subscript>3</Subscript> subsolidus phase diagrams

 Planewave pseudopotential calculations of supercell total energies were used as bases for first-principles calculations of the CaCO₃–MgCO₃ and CdCO₃–MgCO₃ phase diagrams. Calculated phase diagrams are in qualitative to semiquantitative agreement with experiment. Two unobserved phases, Cd₃Mg (CO₃)₄ and CdMg₃(CO₃)₄, are predicted. No new phases are predicted in the CaCO₃–MgCO₃ system, but a low-lying metastable Ca₃Mg(CO₃)₄ state, analogous to the Cd₃Mg(CO₃)₄ phase is predicted. All of the predicted lowest-lying metastable states, except for huntite CaMg₃(CO₃)₄, have dolomite-related structures, i.e. they are layer structures in which A _m B _n cation layers lie perpendicular to the rhombohedral [111] vector. Received: 6 May 2002 / Accepted: 23 October 2002 Acknowledgements This work was partially supported by NSF contract DMR-0080766 and NIST.     

Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate

The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.     

Climate change in Lake Baikal: diatom evidence in an area of continuous sedimentation

The presence of inhomogeneous sedimentation is acknowledged as being an important problem in palaeolimnological studies. Sediment records can be disturbed by erosional and redepositional events, which redeposit microfossils within a basin and may then lead to misinterpretations of fossil diatom assemblages. This study uses a combination of sedimentological tools, magnetic susceptibility measurements and high-resolution diatom analysis to show that a sediment core, BAIK80, taken in 345 m water depth from a shoulder region in the North Basin of Lake Baikal, is free of disturbances. Our results confirm that the sediment record is consistent and continuous for the uppermost sediment. Consequently, the fossil diatom data can be used to establish a continuous record of past climate variability over approximately the past 1300 years. Distinct changes occur in downcore abundances of endemic taxa Aulacoseira baicalensis and Cyclotella minuta, and principal components analysis (PCA) indicates a gradual transformation of taxa over the past 1300 years. These changes are likely to be related to climate, although definite links still have to be established. Received: 15 December 1998 / Accepted: 13 September 1999     

A late Holocene paleo-productivity record in the western Gulf of Maine,USA, inferred from growth histories of the long-lived ocean quahog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Arctica islandica</Emphasis>)

To investigate environmental variability during the late Holocene in the western Gulf of Maine, USA, we collected a 142-year-old living bivalve (Arctica islandica) in 2004, and three fossil A. islandica shells of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and late MWP / Little Ice Age (LIA) period (corrected ¹⁴C_AMS = 1030 ± 78 ad; 1320 ± 45 ad; 1357 ± 40 ad) in 1996. We compared the growth record of the modern shell with continuous plankton recorder (CPR) time-series (1961–2003) from the Gulf of Maine. A significant correlation (r ² = 0.55; p < 0.0001) exists between the standardized annual growth index (SGI) of the modern shell and the relative abundance of zooplankton species Calanus finmarchicus. We therefore propose that SGI data from A. islandica is a valid proxy for paleo-productivity of at least one major zooplankton taxa. SGIs from these shells reveal significant periods of 2–6 years (NAO-like) based on wavelet analysis, multitaper method (MTM) analysis and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) during the late Holocene. Based on established physical oceanographic observation in the Gulf of Maine, we suggest that slope water variability coupled with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics is primarily responsible for the observed SGI variability. Special Issue: AGU OS06 special issue “Ocean’s role in climate change—a paleo perspective”.     

An Inconvenient Truth: blurring the lines between science and science fiction

Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth gives a variety of unusually biased interpretations of the state of climate science and global warming theory. These cover a wide range of natural events and processes which could potentially be impacted by global warming, but which the movie misrepresents as clear examples of the human influence on climate. A few examples include the mixing up of cause and effect in his graphical portrayal of temperature and carbon dioxide variations over hundreds of thousands of years; the repeated depiction of ice calving from glaciers as a sign of global warming; the implication that Hurricane Katrina was the fault of humans; and the particularly extreme view that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, flooding coastal cities worldwide. Ultimately, all of these are related to the widespread perception that scientists have uniquely tied global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The real inconvenient truth is that science has no idea how much of recent warming is natural versus the result of human activities.     

Circulating climate services: Commercializing science for climate change adaptation in Pacific Islands

In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy.     

Timing and prediction of climate change and hydrological impacts: periodicity in natural variations

Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers. Predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. Palaeoclmatic investigations, on the other hand, show unequivocal and strong periodicity of climate variations in proxy evidence. Yet how to use the periodicity in future hydroclimatic timing and forecasting has received less attention. This paper examines the periodicity in Pleistocene–Holocene glacial–interglacial events and in modern precipitation records, and discusses a way in which the periodicity is used for hydroclimatic predictions. The analysis, based on published CO₂, ΔT (δ²H) and δ¹⁸O proxy data of polar ice cores and deep oceanic benthic fossils, shows a periodicity in a ~100, ~40 or 25 kyear duration consistent with Milankovitch orbital regulations during the glacial–interglacial periods. On a fine time scale, millennium and multi-decadal periodicity is observed in high-resolution proxy variations of Greenland ice cores and in instrumental precipitation records of the contiguous USA. A basic periodicity of decadal and multi-decadal changes in ~20 and ~10–15 year duration is apparent in wavelet frequency analysis of both ice core proxy and precipitation data. While the kyear-scale periodicity is found of global prevalence, the millennium and decadal variations vary in space and are region-specific. Based on these findings, a generalized time-downscaling hierarchy of periodicity is proposed as a potential approach for timing and forecasting future hydroclimatic conditions at a resolution relevant to the water resources engineering and management.     

Effect of density and compressibility on <Emphasis Type="Italic">K</Emphasis><Subscript>0</Subscript> of cohesionless soils

This paper revisits the earth pressure coefficient at rest K ₀ of granular materials, with the focus being placed on the variation of K ₀ with the internal friction angle, density and compressibility of soils. Following laboratory tests that are carried out to determine K ₀ of two granular materials, the experimental data are interpreted using the original hypoplasticity model for sand proposed by von Wolffersdorff [49]. K ₀ is generally a function of void ratio, stress level and the critical state friction angle; it can be alternatively related to the compressibility of soil. The results show that Jáky’s equation may still be considered as a reasonable representation of K ₀ for granular soils statistically, even though it may not be able to reproduce the experimental data of a specific soil.