Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

Brief overviews of the Arctic’s atmosphere, ice cover, circulation, primary production and sediment regime are given to provide a conceptual framework for considering panarctic shelves under scenarios of climate variability. We draw on past ‘regional’ studies to scale-up to the panarctic perspective. Within each discipline a synthesis of salient distributions and processes is given, and then functions are noted that are critically poised and/or near transition and thereby sensitive to climate variability and change. The various shelf regions are described and distinguished among three types: inflow shelves, interior shelves and outflow shelves. Emphasis is on projected climate changes that will likely have the greatest impact on shelf-basin exchange, productivity and sediment processes including (a) changes in wind fields (e.g. currents, ice drift, upwelling and downwelling); (b) changes in sea ice distribution (e.g. radiation and wind regimes, enhanced upwelling and mixing, ice transport and scour resuspension, primary production); and (c) changes in hydrology (e.g. sediment and organic carbon delivery, nutrient supplies). A discussion is given of the key rate-controlling processes, which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing.A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light, nutrients, productivity and ice cover likely will be greatest at the shelf-break and margins, and that this forms a natural focus for a coordinated international effort. Recognizing that the real value of climate research is to prepare society for possible futures, and that such research must be based both on an understanding of the past (e.g. the palaeo-record) as well as an ability to reliably predict future scenarios (e.g. validated models), two recommendations emerge: firstly, a comprehensive survey of circumpolar shelf-break and slope sediments would provide long-term synchronous records of shelf-interior ocean exchange and primary production at the shelf edge; secondly, a synoptic panarctic ice and ocean survey using heavy icebreakers, aircraft, moorings and satellites would provide the validation data and knowledge required to properly model key forcing processes at the margins.     

Engaging the public in climate change-related pro-environmental behaviors to protect coral reefs: The role of public trust in the management agency

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role that stakeholder trust in a management agency, as a source of information about climate change, plays in relationships among antecedents to climate change-related pro-environmental behavior. Data collected from a survey of Australian residents living adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park revealed that lower intensities of institutional trust were associated with a less biocentric worldview, a lower reported awareness of consequences of the impacts of climate change, and a lower sense of obligation to adopt pro-environmental behaviors. Findings suggest that managers should attempt to foster the trust their stakeholders have in their agency because when trust increases, stakeholders develop stronger relationships among the antecedents of pro-environmental behavior.     

西安地区约8500aBP来气候变化与风尘堆积

根据野外调查、土层厚度测定、室内粒度分析、CaCO3含量分析和微结构鉴定资料,研究了西安地区约8500aBP来气候变化与风尘堆积的变化。结果表明,西安地区全新世以来的气候与末次间冰期第1阶段气候相比具有频繁变化和变异特点;3100aBP以来风尘堆积与沙尘暴活动比75～10kaBP之间的末次冰期还要强,风尘堆积与沙尘暴活动强的原因主要是气候的变干。全新世黄土发育条件分析表明,黄土高原的黄土可以发育在冰期,也可以发育在与现代气候相近的间冰期,可以发育在冬季风占优势的气候条件下,也可以发育在冬、夏季风活动强度相近的条件下。全新世气候的不稳定性为预测未来长期气候变化带来了不确定性,深入研究全新世气候变异特点对预测未来长期气候变化具有非常重要的意义。     

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts.     

Communicating climate change: Climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers, Tasmania

World fisheries, already vulnerable, are under increasing pressure from the impacts of climate change. Using the Tasmanian rock lobster industry as a case study, we considered the efficacy of risk perception as a tool to inform how to communicate the science of climate change and suggestions for management in relation to development of adaptation strategies for fisheries. Fishers surveyed in this study operate in a fishery that is expected to undergo large changes as a consequence of climate change. Fishers also reported observations of similar large changes in the marine environment and lobster fishery consistent with climate change; yet most fishers surveyed expressed doubts about whether climate change was a real process. The important point for adaption of the industry to climate change is that fisher perceptions of risk tended to create barriers to acceptance of climate change as an issue. This means that there is a barrier to communication and awareness about climate change and thus a barrier to future action on the issue. Improving acceptance of climate change and thus ability to adapt will require the development of communications that are culturally appropriate and palatable to fishers. We argue that the application of social learning principles in communications about climate change may be one constructive way forward.     

Alternative management systems for the UK fishing industry

The paper considers opportunities for institutional development within the UK fishing industry that aim to engender a more meaningful incorporation of fishermen's organisations within the policy system. Special attention is given to the location of responsibility within the policy process. This involves an exploration of an alternative approach to consultation and the scope for delegation of management responsibilities to fishermen's organisations. Mechanisms to improve coordination among fishermen's organisations and to strengthen their internal architecture are also considered. The analysis raises important questions to inform the continuing debate over the development and structure of devolved management systems, in particular regarding the assumptions underlying user participation and the representativeness, capabilities and aspirations of fishermen's organisations.     

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation and its climatic variability for 1948–2007 using the INMOM

The results of simulating global ocean circulation and its interannual variability in 1948–2007 using INM RAS ocean general circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) are presented. One of the INMOM versions is also used for the Black Sea dynamics simulation. The CORE datasets were used to set realistic atmospheric forcing. Sea ice area decrease by 2007 was reproduced in the Arctic Ocean that is in good agreement with observations. The interdecadal climatic variability was revealed with significant decrease of Atlantic thermohaline circulation (ATHC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) in North Atlantic (NA) since the late 1990’s. MHT presents decrease of heat transport from NA to the atmosphere since the mid-1990’s. Therefore the negative feedback is revealed in the Earth climate system that leads to reducing of climate warming caused primarily by anthropogenic factor for the last decades. Long-term variability (60 years) of ATHC is revealed as well which influences NA thermal state with 10 year delay. The assumption is argued that this mechanism can make a contribution in the ATHC own long-term variability.     

Near-equatorial eddies off South America

A considerable amount of the Amazon River water that is discharged into the equatorial Atlantic is then advected northward along the shelf by the strong North Brazil Current (NBC). Being relatively fresh, this water remains in the near-surface layer and can serve as an excellent tracer for the complex and variable flow of the offshore mesoscale eddies. Both surface salinity observations and CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) imagery can be mapped to estimate the circulation patterns of the eddies. Presented here are two sets of XBT (expendable bathythermograph) sections that give the thermal structure of eddies off the Demerara Rise (6–9°N). They were occupied nearly contemporaneously with CZCS imagery obtained during October 1980 and November 1981. Several studies have shown from ship drift data, from CZCS observations, and from Geosat altimetry that, particularly during late summer and fall, the NBC is found to retroflect offshore to the east, supplying the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and is associated with eddies along the coast. Good agreement is shown between the CZCS and a NAVOCEANO AXBT (airborne bathythermograph) survey during this period as well as observations of surface phytoplankton and geopotential anomaly from an earlier 1964 survey. Estimates of volume transport within the eddy structure indicate that at times the offshore retroflection during spring as well as autumn can amount to 10 × 10⁶ m³ s^–1. The pronounced eddy variability off South America is shown by comparing a number of past hydrographic surveys. These suggest that considerable spatial variability can occur as can seasonal changes in volume transport of the NBC and the associated eddy circulation.     

Collaborative research on the pelagic ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

Two Bering Sea marine research programs collaborated during the final years of the 1990s to forge advances in understanding the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem. Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity, sponsored by NOAA Coastal Ocean Program, investigated processes on the middle and outer shelf and the continental slope. The Inner Front Program, sponsored by NSF, investigated processes of the inner domain and the front between the inner and middle domains. The purposes of these programs were to (1) increase understanding of the southeastern Bering Sea ecosystem, including the roles of juvenile walleye pollock, (2) investigate the hypothesis that elevated primary production at the inner front provides a summer-long energy source for the food web, and (3) develop and test annual indices of pre-recruit pollock abundance. The observations occurred during a period of unusually large variability in the marine climate, including a possible regime shift. Sea-ice cover ranged from near zero to one of the heaviest ice years in recent decades. Sea-surface temperatures reached record highs during summer 1997, whereas 1999 was noted for its low Bering Sea temperatures. Moreover, the first recorded observations of coccolithophore blooms on the shelf were realized in 1997, and these blooms now appear to be persistent. The programs’ results include an archive of physical and biological time series that emphasize large year-to-year regional variability, and an Oscillating Control Hypothesis that relates marine productivity to climate forcing. Further investigations are needed of the confluences of interannual and even intra-seasonal variability with low-frequency climate variability as potential producers of major, abrupt changes in the southeastern Bering Sea ecosystem.     

Distinguishing coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions from background noise in the North Pacific

When considering physical mechanisms for decadal-timescale climate variability in the North Pacific, it is useful to describe in detail the expected response of the ocean to the chaotic atmospheric forcing. The expected response to this white-noise forcing includes strongly enhanced power in the decadal frequency band relative to higher frequencies, pronounced changes in basin-wide climate that resemble regime shifts, preferred patterns of spatial variability, and a depth-dependent profile that includes variability with a standard deviation of 0.2–0.4°C over the top 50–100 m. Weak spectral peaks are also possible, given ocean dynamics. Detecting coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the real climate system is difficult against the spectral and spatial structure of this ‘null-hypothesis’ of how the ocean and atmosphere interact, especially given the impossibility of experimentally decoupling the ocean from the atmosphere. Turning to coupled ocean–atmosphere models to address this question, a method for identifying coupled modes by using models of increasing physical complexity is illustrated. It is found that a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode accounts for enhanced variability with a time scale of 20 years/cycle in the Kuroshio extension region of the model's North Pacific. The observed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has many similarities to the expected noise-forced response and few similarities to the model's coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. However, model deficiencies and some analyses of observations by other workers indicate that the possibility that part of the PDO arises from a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode cannot be ruled out.     

Pacific subtropical cell variability in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th century

Observational studies of the Pacific basin since the 1950s have demonstrated that a decrease (increase) in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is significantly correlated with a spin-up (slow-down) of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs). STCs are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations that provide a pathway by which extratropical atmospheric variability can impact the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, through upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, tropical Pacific SSTs. Recent studies have shown that this observed relationship between SSTs and STCs is absent in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries. In this paper we investigate what causes this relationship to breakdown and to what extent this limits the models’ ability to simulate observed climate change in the equatorial Pacific since the late 19th century. To provide insight into these questions we first show that the NCAR Community Climate System Model’s simulation of observed climate change since the 1970s has a robust signal in the equatorial Pacific that bears a close resemblance to observations. Strikingly, absent is a robust signal in the equatorial thermocline. Our results suggest that the coupled model may be reproducing the observed local ocean response to changes in forcing but inadequately reproducing the remote STC-forcing of the tropical Pacific due to the underestimate of extratropical winds that force these ocean circulations. These conclusions are found to be valid in five different coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries (CCSM3, GISS EH, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO-Mk3, and HadCM3).     

Pacific subtropical cell variability in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th century

Observational studies of the Pacific basin since the 1950s have demonstrated that a decrease (increase) in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is significantly correlated with a spin-up (slow-down) of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs). STCs are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations that provide a pathway by which extratropical atmospheric variability can impact the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, through upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, tropical Pacific SSTs. Recent studies have shown that this observed relationship between SSTs and STCs is absent in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries. In this paper we investigate what causes this relationship to breakdown and to what extent this limits the models’ ability to simulate observed climate change in the equatorial Pacific since the late 19th century. To provide insight into these questions we first show that the NCAR Community Climate System Model’s simulation of observed climate change since the 1970s has a robust signal in the equatorial Pacific that bears a close resemblance to observations. Strikingly, absent is a robust signal in the equatorial thermocline. Our results suggest that the coupled model may be reproducing the observed local ocean response to changes in forcing but inadequately reproducing the remote STC-forcing of the tropical Pacific due to the underestimate of extratropical winds that force these ocean circulations. These conclusions are found to be valid in five different coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries (CCSM3, GISS EH, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO-Mk3, and HadCM3).     

基于无线电探空和无线电掩星观测的北极上层气温研究

The air temperature is one of the most important parameters used for monitoring the Arctic climate change. The constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate and Formosa Satellite Mission 3(COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3) radio occultation(RO) "wet" temperature product(i.e., "wet Prf") is used to analyze the Arctic air temperature profiles at 925–200 hPa in 2007–2012. The "wet" temperatures are further compared with radiosonde(RS) observations. The results from the spatially and temporally synchronized RS and COSMIC observations show that their temperatures agree well with each other, especially at 400 hPa. Comparisons of seasonal temperatures and anomalies from the COSMIC and homogenized RS observations suggest that the limited number of COSMIC observations during the spatial matchup may be insufficient to describe the smallscale spatial structure of temperature variations. Furthermore, comparisons of the seasonal temperature anomalies from the RS and 5°×5° gridded COSMIC observations at 400 hPa during the sea ice minimum(SIM) of2007 and 2012 are also made. The results reveal that similar Arctic temperature variation patterns can be obtained from both RS and COSMIC observations over the land area, while extra information can be further provided from the densely distributed COSMIC observations. Therefore, despite COSMIC observations being unsuitable to describe the Arctic temperatures in the lowest level, they provide a complementary data source to study the Arctic upper-air temperature variations and related climate change.     

The comparison of altimeter retrieval algorithms of the wind speed and the wave period

Recent (2007-2010) research results about ocean’s role in climate variation and change by Chinese scientists are highlighted. This paper reviews a majority contributions by Chinese scientists to the understanding of ocean variability and change. This paper starts with the results about the important role of the tropical Indian Ocean in interannual variation of the Asia summer monsoon, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) and freshwater flux on climate variability in the Pa- cific, and interannual variability research in other oceans. Then results about ocean dynamic and thermodynamic roles in decadal climate variation are reviewed. Finally, the results about oceanic response to global warming are discussed, again showcasing ocean’s important role in climate.     

中国2 kaBP前后的气候及其影响

根据近20年来由历史文献、冰心、孢粉、湖泊沉积等多种代用资料恢复的历史时期气候变化状况,对中国2 kaBP前后的气候变化及其可能影响以及驱动机制进行了综合推断,结果表明:2 kaBP前后,中国的气候发生了明显的变化,在温度变化方面,新疆地区由寒冷转为温暖,其余地区由温暖转为寒冷;在降水变化上,北方大部分地区降水量下降,干旱化趋势明显,南方地区降水量变化不大,仍然比较丰富。此期,自然灾害增多,农业生产范围缩小,人口数量减少,政局不稳定,甚至出现政权更迭等社会不稳定事件。太阳活动、大气环流和火山活动可能是引起此次气候变化的重要原因。     

不同边界层稳定性下海气湍流热通量日变化的前沿问题探讨

海气湍流热通量(潜热和感热)是研究海气相互作用和大洋环流的关键要素, 认识其变化机理对理解“海洋动力过程及气候效应”有重要意义。然而, 受观测手段和计算能力两方面的限制, 过去对海气湍流热通量日变化研究存在“特征认识较粗、机制理解较疏”的现象。本文探讨了在不同边界层稳定性下海气湍流热通量日变化研究中的问题与难点, 并讨论了“不同边界层稳定性下海气湍流热通量日变化过程和机理”这一关键科学问题。本文提出, 可基于海洋浮标、平台和波浪滑翔机等综合观测数据和高时空分辨率再分析资料, 利用块体算法和脉动分离方法, 揭示全球海气湍流热通量的精细化日变化特征和决定因素, 以及海气湍流热通量日变化强度(日内小时级变化的标准差)与极端天气过程和气候事件的动力关联。同时, 为更精准认识日变化过程, 在技术上可通过耦合高频海表流速和校正边界层物理参数观测高度等方式提升海气湍流热通量估算的精确度。本文提出可将多时空尺度海气湍流热通量变化维度转换到边界层稳定性上, 以便集中认识其日变化特征和机理, 支撑全球海气能量平衡的科学认识。     

4个代表站点的珊瑚δ18O数据对热带印度洋气候变率的反演能力分析*

珊瑚中的δ¹⁸O含量可以高精度地记录热带海洋中的气候变率及气候变化信息, 从而弥补器测观测时间长度有限的缺陷, 为反演过去长期的气候状况提供了可能。热带印度洋的气候模态通过海气相互作用影响周边区域甚至全球的气候, 具有重要的研究意义。本文对比分析了1880—1999年间热带印度洋4个站点(肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、塞舌尔、明打威)的珊瑚δ¹⁸O数据, 研究了其对热带印度洋气候的反演情况。结果显示, 珊瑚δ¹⁸O对海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)的长期变化趋势反演良好, 珊瑚δ¹⁸O与局地SST在季节循环中保持一致, 且在低温季节对SST的变化更为敏感。此外, 4个站点的珊瑚δ¹⁸O对印度洋海盆模态(Indian Ocean Basin Mode, IOBM)和印度洋偶极子模态(Indian Ocean Dipple Mode, IODM)有一定的表征能力, 并且δ¹⁸O记录的热带印度洋年际变率受年代际变率调制。本文的研究结果表明, 珊瑚δ¹⁸O数据对于了解古气候时期热带印度洋气候变率具有重要的指示意义, 但同时也需要综合考虑不同站点的信息来完整地反映印度洋在历史时期的气候变化情况。     

How soon will climate records of the 20th century be broken according to climate model simulations?

What will happen to local record values of temperature and precipitation in a world with ongoing global warming? Here we first examine how many of the observed local temperature maxima of 1901–2006 occurred in the years 2001–2006 and compare the observations with model simulations. Then we study whether, and how soon, the models simulate the climate records of the 20th century to be broken in the ongoing 21st century.
In 27% of our analysis area, the highest annual mean temperatures of the whole period 1901–2006 were observed in 2001–2006. For the 22 climate models in our study, this fraction varies from 17% to 70%, with a multimodel mean of 40%. In simulations based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario, the highest annual mean temperature of the 20th century is exceeded on average in 99% of the global area by the year 2080. The same number for the highest (lowest) annual precipitation total is 60% (43%). Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation records are also analysed, and the geographical distributions of record value occurrence are related to the distributions of time mean climate change and magnitude of interannual variability.     

近50年来长江入海径流量对太平洋年代际震荡变化的响应

太平洋年代际震荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)是类似于ENS0型的具有年代际时间尺度变化的太平洋气候变率.PDO既对长期的气候变化趋势产生扰动,又会对年际变化事件(如ENSO)产生重要影响,可使ENSO事件的频率和强度改变,以致影响到ENSO和季风的关系.通过对百年来的PDO数据进行HHT分...