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1.
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been adopted as the primary management goal by several inter-government fishery organisations, and in the United States it forms the cornerstone of federal fishery management policy. MSY became a strategic goal for the management of Europe's fisheries following the resolution of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 to restore or maintain fish stocks to MSY levels by 2015. Calculation of MSY requires information on the rate at which biomass increases through growth and reproduction and the rate at which it decreases through natural mortality and fishing. Population-selection, which measures the age-specific rates of fishing mortality, is a key component for the calculation of yield as a function of fishing mortality and MSY, yet selection rarely features in either management advice or sensitivity analyses. Effective management of selection can potentially lead to increases in long-term yield, but before taking action managers need to understand what long-term increases are possible. Using a hypothetical stock, equilibrium yield curves were calculated for three scenarios in which the shape of the population-selection curve varied. The results illustrate the potential extent of variation in MSY and the corresponding fishing mortality required to achieve it (FMSY) that may result solely due to changes in population selectivity. They show that relatively subtle changes in selection can produce substantial differences in MSY and FMSY. The results are discussed with specific reference to the development of long-term management targets and the mechanisms by which managers might try to influence population-selection.  相似文献   

2.
An age-structured population model was used to examine the variability of yield created by randomly fluctuating recruitment success in the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis stock. Three different harvesting strategies were examined: (1) constant age-specific pattern of fishing mortality, (2) constant quota with effort limitation and (3) annual quota adjustments by means of an F msy procedure. Variable recruitment was generated by a stochastic stock-recruit relationship, and mean yields, mean spawner biomasses and probability distributions of yield were calculated at each exploitation level after 150 projections from the population structure of anchovy in 1981. Under conditions of constant fishing mortality, the variability of yield increased continuously as the exploitation rate was increased. The maximum average yield (MAY) is the stochastic equivalent of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of deterministic models, but an attempt to sustain this MAY by a constant quota resulted in a very high risk of stock collapse. An Fmsy policy based on pre-season adult biomass resulted in more variable yields than were obtained at the equivalent constant fishing mortality at age. Stability of yield therefore demanded the acceptance of lower average yields than could be attained in the long term by quota adjustment. It was considered that the South African purse-seine industry could not cope with the wide fluctuations of yield necessary to attain MAY. Specific management policies sufficiently robust to withstand both fluctuating recruitment success and the uncertainties in the parameters of working population models would be required.  相似文献   

3.
One of the most important goals in current fisheries management is to maintain or restore stocks above levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, it may not be feasible to achieve MSY simultaneously for multiple species because of trade-offs that result from interactions between species, mixed fisheries and the multiple objectives of stakeholders. The premise in this study is that MSY is a concept that needs adaptation, not wholesale replacement. The approach chosen to identify trade-offs and stakeholder preferences involved a process of consulting and discussing options with stakeholders as well as scenario modelling with bio-economic and multi-species models. It is difficult to intuitively anticipate the consequences of complex trade-offs and it is also complicated to address them from a political point of view. However, scenario modelling showed that the current approach of treating each stock separately and ignoring trade-offs may result in unacceptable ecosystem, economic or social effects in North Sea fisheries. Setting FMSY as a management target without any flexibility for compromises may lead to disappointment for some of the stakeholders. To treat FMSY no longer as a point estimate but rather as a “Pretty Good Yield” within sustainable ranges was seen as a promising way forward to avoid unacceptable outcomes when trying to fish all stocks simultaneously at FMSY. This study gives insights on how inclusive governance can help to reach consensus in difficult political processes, and how science can be used to make informed decisions inside a multi-dimensional trade-off space.  相似文献   

4.
Ecosystem-based fishery management (EBFM) requires taking account of indirect effects (such as habitat destruction, incidental mortality, and competition between the fishery and marine mammals or birds) and dealing with non-commensurate values (such as yield from the fishery and production of offspring by the birds or mammals competing for the same resource). The perspective of EBFM requires that the rate of fishing mortality is less than the value that provides maximum sustainable yield (MSY), but the question is how far below this level should the fishery operate? For this problem in multiobjective programming, simple method of solution was developed and illustrated with the fishery for sandeels (Ammodytes spp.) in the Shetland Islands. The yield from the fishery at a given fishing mortality F is scaled by MSY (so that this quantity increases as fishing mortality increases from 0 to that giving MSY) and the breeding success of predators (black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla and Arctic terns Sterna paradisaea) at a given fishing mortality is scaled by that in the absence of fishing. The result is two non-dimensional quantities that can be combined into a single value function, which can then be explored or optimized. It is shown that a reduction of only about 20 percent in yield can nearly double the breeding performance of the more sensitive predator. Extensions of the method are discussed; these include the use of maximum economic yield (MEY) and state dependent life history, as implemented by stochastic dynamic programming.  相似文献   

5.
杨春蕙  刘琦  王迎宾 《海洋与湖沼》2022,53(5):1219-1224
当渔业资源出现衰退时,加强资源增殖放流以养护渔业资源、提高渔业产量对于渔业资源可持续利用具有重要意义;与此同时,增殖放流的实施会对基于资源开发与管理的评估的结果产生影响。基于2001~2015年间东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)渔业数据,采用增殖剩余产量模型,对东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹的最大可持续产量(MSY)及取得MSY时所需捕捞努力量(EMSY)和原存生物量(BMSY)进行了评估,并与传统Schaefer模型评估结果进行了比较。结果表明,当年增殖放流量约在3×106~95×106尾之间时,三疣梭子蟹年产量逐渐增加, MSY在14.2×104 t和14.6×104 t之间, EMSY基本在15×104吨位左右。增殖放流量增加,其对应的MSY也越高,能承受的EMSY也越高(从15×104~15.4×104吨位之间),相反BMSY则减小(从188.4×104 t降至186.6×104 t)。与传统的Schaefer模型评估结果相比,增殖剩余产量模型由于考虑了增殖放流生物量的因素,得到了MSY和EMSY有所增加,而BMSY有所下降的结论。研究结果有望为该研究海域三疣梭子蟹可持续地捕捞、放流与管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

6.
基于Schaefer模型的东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源评估和管理   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
东南太平洋茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是世界范围内最重要的经济头足类之一,也是我国鱿钓渔船的重要捕捞对象。本文根据2003—2012年中国大陆的渔业数据和FAO统计的东南太平洋茎柔鱼产量数据,利用Schaefer模型,基于贝叶斯统计方法,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源进行评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果表明,年渔获量和CPUE数据为贝叶斯资源评估模型提供了足够多的信息。2003—2012年捕捞死亡率低于目标参考点F0.1,渔获量小于最大可持续产量,资源量大于目标参考点Bmsy,资源状况良好,未遭受过度捕捞。在基准方案下,最大可持续产量为142.9万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为214.7万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.682;在敏感性分析方案下,最大的可持续产量为152.5万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为229.6万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.691。决策分析和风险分析表明,当捕获率设定为0.3以下时,资源能够得到较好的养护,资源崩溃的可能性很低。将捕获率设定在0.3左右是最适的管理策略,此时的持续产量为99万吨左右。  相似文献   

7.
The present study assessed trends in resource-use, partitioning and management in the Ungwana Bay fishery, Kenya, using surplus production models. The fishery is one of East Africa’s important marine fisheries sustaining a bottom trawl commercial fishery and a resident-migrant artisanal fishery. Two models: Schaefer (1954) and Gulland and Fox (1975) were applied to catch-effort data over a 21-year period to model maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimal effort (fMSY) to examine the status of resource exploitation and provide reference points for sustainable management. In the artisanal fishery, model MSYs range from 392-446 t to 1283-1473 t for shrimps and fish respectively compared to mean annual landings of 60 t for shrimp and 758 t for fish. These landings represent <50% of the model MSYs suggesting under exploitation in the sub-sector. Moreover, current fishing effort applied stands at <0.5 fMSY. On the other hand, mean annual landings in bottom trawl commercial fishery, at about 330 t for shrimps and 583 t and fish represent about 90% of the model MSYs of 352-391 t and 499-602 t for shrimps and fish respectively. Therefore, the bottom trawl commercial fishery is likely under full exploitation. Similarly, the current effort is estimated at >0.7 fMSY. Resource management in the bay is faced with numerous problems including resource-use conflicts, poor economic conditions in artisanal fishery, poor legislation, and inadequate research augmented by poor reporting systems for catch-effort statistics. Thus, the fishery lacks clearly defined exploitation regimes. Fisheries research and assessment of the marine resources are important for sustainability of the fishery. Moreover, income diversification in the poverty ridden artisanal fishery would go a long way in addressing resource-use conflicts and use of deleterious fishing methods in the sub-sector. Borrowing from the successes of the Japanese community-based fisheries resource management (CBFRM) which has easily resolved numerous fisheries management issues in coastal small-scale commercial fisheries, and the beach management unit (BMU) system which has been applied to the artisanal fisheries of south coast Kenya with enormous benefits, it is envisaged that a hybrid CBFRM-BMU system presents the best approach to sustainable resource-use in the Ungwana Bay fishery.  相似文献   

8.
The Eastern Baltic cod stock was until recently below safe biological limits and suffered from high fishing pressure. In most recent years, fishing mortality substantially declined and spawner biomass more than tripled. Similar developments have not been observed for any other depleted cod stock in the North Atlantic during the last few decades. This paper investigates relative impacts of changes in different ecological and management-related drivers, which could have contributed to the rapid recovery of the Eastern Baltic cod. The results show that the success to reduce fishing mortality below management target in 2008 was due to a combination of increased recruitment and improved compliance with TAC. The reversal of the negative trend in biomass and rebuilding of the stock to the present level were largely driven by increased recruitment. Harvest control rules of the multi-annual management plan for setting TACs currently maintain the fishing mortality at a low level, which allows the stock to accumulate biomass and further accelerate its recovery. Relatively strong incoming year-classes and recently better control over removals distinguish the Eastern Baltic cod from other depleted European cod stocks, which have not shown similar positive trends in recent years. Sound management measures and compliance to those as well as favourable biological conditions are required for a successful stock recovery.  相似文献   

9.
应用Catch-MSY模型评估印度洋蓝枪鱼资源   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
Catch-MSY模型可仅依靠渔获量数据进行渔业资源评估,在数据缺乏状况下能暂时替代标准资源评估模型。本研究以印度洋蓝枪鱼(Makaira nigricans)为例,根据有、无信息的内禀增长率r和环境容纳量K的先验分布,设立15组情景进行模型灵敏度分析、资源评估和预测。结果表明,参数r和K呈强烈的负相关,而最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield,MSY)与参数r呈正相关;数据时间序列长度对评估结果影响有限,而模型对起止年渔获量较为敏感。资源状况评估表明,印度洋蓝枪鱼资源生物量状况良好,即B2015/BMSY大于1;而开发状况除其中两种情景外,均为过度捕捞,即F2015/FMSY大于1。资源预测表明,为使未来10年内B/BMSY>1的概率超过50%,需将渔获量缩减至当前渔获量的90%(13.86 kt);考虑到该模型在数据缺乏状况下会更加保守,若将当前渔获量的100%~110%(15.40~16.94 kt)设为管理目标,则未来5年内B/BMSY >1的概率超过50%。  相似文献   

10.
西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子(滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比)影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量(MSY)在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F0.1FMSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

11.
There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/BMSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/FMSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.  相似文献   

12.
It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery.  相似文献   

13.
The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F 0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F 4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F 40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F 0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.  相似文献   

14.
Much of the research that concerns the impacts of management measures in the eastern Baltic cod fishery has focused on fish stock rather than understanding fishermen's attitudes towards regulations. Hence, there is little information available on fishermen's responses although they are the ones whom the regulations affect most profoundly. This study analyses the views of fishermen towards management measures with an emphasis on fishing closures (marine protected areas, MPAs). Swedish log-book data from 1996 to 2005 were used to describe MPA induced fishing effort displacements. Fishermen argued that MPAs have been inefficient in conservation of cod stock. The enlargement of Bornholm MPA in 2005 caused substantial effort displacement towards areas dominated by smaller sized fish. This contributed to the increased discarding of juvenile cod. Enlarged MPAs also intensified competition between different fleet segments and reallocated fishing areas. To reduce fishing mortality, fishermen suggested days-at-sea (effort) regulation and an effective landings control system for all fleets that exploit cod stocks in the Baltic Sea Main Basin. These measures would better motivate fishermen for mutual rule compliance, which is a prerequisite for a sustainable cod fishery.  相似文献   

15.
In the North Atlantic the Icelandic, the North Sea, and the Newfoundland cod stocks are currently overexploited. Overexploitation also characterised the Northeast Arctic cod stock, but effective management measures introduced in 1990 and the years thereafter have brought this stock within safe biological limits. The Northeast Arctic cod stock is transboundary and shared between Norway and Russia. As guidelines for a sound management strategy of this cod stock in the future, reference points for management are discussed. As a point of departure, a management strategy which fulfils the objectives for fishery policy stated by Norway is analysed. These objectives, focusing on sustainable harvesting, increased profitability and the role of the fishery as employer of labour in rural districts are fundamental in most of the world's fishery nations.The “optimal” strategy is defined as the one which fulfils these in the best way possible. The natural variations are discussed and the biological and economic yield's dependence upon the rate of exploitation are analysed. The analysis shows that the size of the spawning stock should be no less than 500 000 tonnes and that highest yield is obtained through a rate of exploitation of around 17–30% (equivalent to a fishing mortality of about 0.20–0.40). A spawning stock size of 500 000 tonnes should therefore serve as a “limit reference point” and a fishing mortality of about 0.20–0.40 should serve as a “target reference point” in the management of Northeast Arctic cod.The method described may be applied to other demersal stocks to help establish target and limit reference points in order to conduct a sound management.  相似文献   

16.
Balanced harvesting is the name of a newly proposed approach to fishing which promises the extraction of high and sustainable fisheries yields while maintaining the structure of the ecosystem from which those yields could be obtained. This is to be achieved through exposing all components of ecosystems (from zooplankton to top predators, including seals, sea birds and marine mammals) to a fishing mortality proportional to their size-specific productivity. This study briefly analyses the incompatibility between balanced harvesting (and its implications) and the stated missions of two major organizations, FAO (which stresses the need of selective fishing in its Code of Conduct for Sustainable Fisheries) and IUCN (which maintains the Red List of Threatened Species), but which have issued reports or organized conferences promoting balanced harvesting. The study also demonstrates the incompatibility of balanced harvesting with the recently reformed Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union. While balanced harvesting appears partly compatible with declared fisheries policies of a few countries, e.g. with regard to whaling, sealing, and indiscriminate biomass fishing, it is not only incompatible with the basic tenets of fisheries science, but also with the vision, gradually emerging globally, that marine organisms such as marine mammals, sea turtles, sea-birds and other fauna have an intrinsic value and right to life that should not be undermined by more of the indiscriminate fishing which currently shapes much of our interactions with the oceans.  相似文献   

17.
The catch and effort data analysis(CEDA) and ASPIC(a stock assessment production model incorporating covariates) computer software packages were used to estimate the maximum sustainable yield(MSY) from the catch and effort data of Greater lizardfish Saurida tumbil fishery of Pakistan from 1986 to 2009. In CEDA three surplus production models of Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson were used. Here initial proportion(IP) of 0.5 was used because the starting catch was roughly 50% of the maximum catch. With IP = 0.5, the estimated MSY from Fox model were 20.59 mt and 38.16 mt for normal and log-normal error assumptions, while the MSY from Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson were 60.40, 60.40 and 60.40 mt, for normal, log-normal and gamma error assumptions respectively. The MSY values from Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models of three error assumptions were the same. The R2 values from those three models were above 0.6. When IP = 0.5, the MSY values estimated from ASPIC from Fox were 132 mt, and from logistic model were 69.4 mt, with R2 value above 0.8. Therefore we suggest the MSY of S. tumbil fishery from Pakistan to be 60–70 mt, which is higher than the latest catch, thus we would recommend that the fishing efforts for this fishery may be kept at the current level.  相似文献   

18.
王迎宾 《海洋学报》2021,43(2):28-37
为应对渔业资源的日益衰退,增殖放流成为了目前补充资源、维持资源可持续利用的主要手段之一。增殖放流实施后,渔业资源的可持续特征是学者们普遍关心,却又无法使用传统剩余产量模型有效解决的问题。本研究基于传统的Schaefer剩余产量模型,提出了一个适用于增殖放流情况下的剩余产量模型(增殖剩余产量模型),模拟分析了不同增殖放流和捕捞策略对模型的影响。该模型的形式与Schaefer剩余产量模型相似,但加入了描述增殖群体增长特征的参数—有效增殖率,以此来表示增殖放流的群体对产量产生的影响。结果显示,合理的增殖放流可以起到增加最大可持续产量的效果,使用增殖剩余产量模型能够得到合理的最大可持续产量等关键指标的估算结果。与无增殖放流情况相比,在增殖放流影响下,海域原存资源(海域原本存在的群体)达到最大可持续产量时所需的生物量较小,而可承受的捕捞努力量则有所增加。增殖剩余产量模型所反映的原存群体和增殖群体之间会产生抑制作用。在该作用影响下,不同增殖放流和捕捞策略会对模型的评估结果产生影响。与传统模型相比,该模型将增殖放流纳入最大可持续产量的评估过程,提高了增殖放流影响下最大可持续产量评估的准确性,可用于诸如海洋牧场等边界较清晰的海域内增殖定栖性种类最大可持续产量的估算。  相似文献   

19.
A Monte-Carlo simulation approach is used to investigate the relative robustness of the results of the Butterworth–Andrew (B 1 = K and B 1 estimated) dynamic production-model observation-error estimators to different "true" values of the ratio of initial biomass B 1 to unexploited equilibrium biomass K. The simulations use an underlying operating model typical of that appropriate for stocks of Cape hake off southern Africa. The B 1 = K variant of the estimator results in lower estimated expected discrepancies for a number of management quantities over a wide range of the value of the "true" ratio. In addition, it is less likely to provide severe overestimates of the f 0.1 total allowable catch (TAC). Not all management quantities are equally sensitive to the value of the "true" ratio. In particular, f 0.1) TACs can be severely overestimated, although the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is relatively well determined over a wide range of values of the ratio. It is therefore recommended that harvesting strategies which do not permit TACs to be set in excess of the estimated MSY be preferred.  相似文献   

20.
船舶自动识别系统(Automatic identification system,AIS)为渔业资源和渔船捕捞活动管理和研究提供了可能.明确船舶作业类型是开展AIS信息渔业研究应用前提,为渔业研究和管理提供渔船捕捞类型基础数据支撑,保障渔船作业安全和监督非法捕捞渔业活动,作者通过搜集整理3000多艘已知类型船舶信息,从...  相似文献   

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