Integrating hydrologic modeling and land use projections for evaluation of hydrologic response and regional water supply impacts in semi-arid environments

Semi-arid environments are generally more sensitive to urbanization than humid regions in terms of both hydrologic modifications and water resources sustainability. The current study integrates hydrologic modeling and land use projections to predict long-term impacts of urbanization on hydrologic behavior and water supply in semi-arid regions. The study focuses on the Upper Santa Clara River basin in northern Los Angeles County, CA, USA, which is undergoing rapid and extensive development. The semi-distributed Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) model is parameterized with land use, soil, and channel characteristics of the study watershed. Model parameters related to hydrologic processes are calibrated at the daily time step using various spatial configurations of precipitation and parameters. Potential urbanization scenarios are generated on the basis of a regional development plan. The calibrated (and validated) model is run under the proposed development scenarios for a 10 year period. Results reveal that increasing development increases total annual runoff and wet season flows, while decreases are observed in existing baseflow and groundwater recharge during both dry and wet seasons. As development increases, medium-sized storms increase in both peak flow and overall volume, while low and high flow events (extremes) appear less affected. Urbanization is also shown to decrease natural recharge and, when considered at the regional scale, may result in a loss of critical water supply to Southern California. The current study provides a coupled framework for a decision support tool that can guide efforts involved in regional urban development planning and water supply management.     

基于DRASTIC指标体系法的泰安市地下水脆弱性研究

地下水脆弱性评价是地下水保护工作的核心内容之一,针对泰安市的特点和区域特色,利用DRASTIC方法,选取地下水位埋深、净补给量、含水层介质类型、土壤介质类型、地形坡度、包气带介质类型以及含水层渗透系数7个参数为评价指标,对该地区的地下水脆弱性进行了定量评价,将泰安市地下水的脆弱性分为脆弱性高、较高、中等和低4个等级,并绘制了地下水脆弱性分区图,对该地区今后制订地下水资源管理、土地利用、环境保护及城市规划等政策措施具有较重要的参考指导作用。     

三江平原土地利用变化对水量平衡的影响

三江平原土地利用（LU）变化及其引发的大规模水资源开发利用活动对当地水文循环产生了明显扰动。为明确三江平原水量平衡特征及其存在的问题,基于2000—2014年土地利用连续变化情景的水文循环仿真模型,在其他数据和参数不变的前提下,建立假设模型和预测模型,分别模拟2000年起已控制LU变化和2014年后控制LU变化2种假设LU管控情景的水文过程,对比3种情景下的水量平衡。结果显示:如果2000年开始就采取积极的LU管控措施,此后的15a将有效减少三江平原对外调水的依赖,改善地下水超采的现状,甚至使平原区地下水储量年均增加3.08亿m3;如果2014年才实施土地利用管控措施,巨大的水资源开发利用惯性将使平原区地下水年均亏空量达到14.26亿m3,甚至使全区域的蓄水量由盈转亏,年均亏损4.25亿m3。三江平原要实现各层次的水量收支平衡,除了尽快控制高耗水LU类型的过快增长,更加积极的水资源调配及相关工程的建设势在必行。     

Impacts of soil conservation on groundwater recharge in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China

Soil conservation measures undertaken to address land degradation can alter the hydrologic cycle by changing partitioning of water fluxes at the land surface. While effects on runoff are well documented, impacts of soil conservation activities on fluxes to groundwater are poorly understood. The goal of this study was to examine fluxes to groundwater in a semi-arid area of China’s Loess Plateau that has been subject to extensive soil conservation activities. Unsaturated zone pore-water pressures and concentrations of chloride show that impacts on deep drainage differ between ecological and structural soil conservation approaches. High matric potentials and low chloride beneath cultivated terrace and gulley sites are consistent with deep drainage occurring at these sites. Estimated recharge rates for dryland cultivated upland sites were approximately 55??0?mm/year (11??8% of mean annual rainfall) based upon chloride mass balance. In contrast, results suggest that mature tree and shrub plantations prevent deep drainage. Stable isotope signatures of unsaturated-zone moisture and groundwater indicate that focused infiltration through gullies and other topographic lows is likely to be the primary recharge mechanism. The results of this study highlight the potential for inadvertent effects of some soil conservation approaches on regional water resources.     

The use of geoprocessing to assess vulnerability on the east coast aquifers of Rio de Janeiro State,Brazil

The east coast of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, shows a worrying overlap between areas with intrinsic groundwater vulnerability and the most significant urban expansion zones. It experienced a rapid population growth in recent years, mainly due to the tourism industry, resulting in a significant pressure on drinking groundwater resources. In this regard, development and use of techniques to control and protect areas susceptible to contamination is crucial. The elaboration of aquifer vulnerability maps is thus extremely helpful to support water resources management. The aim of the work is to present the methodological approach in the use of Geoprocessing techniques to obtain a suitable groundwater vulnerability model in Rio de Janeiro east coast. Considering the existing problems and the current land use and characteristics of the study region, it is clear that the most vulnerable areas (that is, “extreme” and “very high” vulnerability areas), coincide with the most significant zones of urban occupation, corresponding to 11% of the total study area, demanding adoption of urgent measures in the near future. Geoprocessing tools and remote sensing for characterization of Rio de Janeiro’s east coast aquifer vulnerability gave good results, representing a satisfactory method for management actions at low cost.     

Potential groundwater recharge zones within New Zealand

Water resources in New Zealand are not evenly distributed across the country which makes it difficult to adequately allocate the use of water resources in every basin. Groundwater is a fundamental water resource in New Zealand for agricultural, industrial and domestic use. Detailed knowledge regarding groundwater recharge potential is a pre-requisite for sustainable groundwater management, including the assessment of its vulnerability to contamination by pollutants. In this study, a comprehensive GIS approach was used to map the potential groundwater recharge zones across New Zealand. National data sets of lithology, slope, aspect, land use, soil drainage and drainage density were converted to raster data sets with a spatial resolution of 500 m × 500 m and superimposed to derive groundwater potential zones. The resultant maps demonstrate that the potential is low in urban and mountainous areas, such as the Southern Alps, whereas the highest potential can be found in regions with large lakes and in the lower elevation plains areas, where Quaternary sediments prevail. The resulting maps can be used to identify areas of high nutrient leaching in zones where high groundwater recharge potential exists.     

Evaluation of aquifers vulnerability to contamination in the Yarmouk River basin, Jordan, based on DRASTIC method

The existing different human activities and planned land uses put the groundwater resources in Jordan at considerable risk. There are evidences suggesting that the quality of groundwater supplies in north Jordan is under threat from a wide variety of point and non-point sources including agricultural, domestic, and industrial. Vulnerability maps are designed to show areas of greatest potential for groundwater contamination on the basis of hydrogeological conditions and human impacts. DRASTIC method incorporates the major geological and hydrogeological factors that affect and control groundwater movement: depth to groundwater (D), net recharge (R), lithology of the aquifer (A), soil texture (S), topography (T), lithology of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity (C). The main goal of this study is to produce vulnerability maps of groundwater resources in the Yarmouk River basin by applying the DRASTIC method to determine areas where groundwater protection or monitoring is critical. ArcGIS 9.2 was used to create the groundwater vulnerability maps by overlaying the available hydrogeological data. The resulting vulnerability maps were then integrated with lineament and land use maps as additional parameters in the DRASTIC model to assess more accurately the potential risk of groundwater to pollution. The general DRASTIC index indicates that the potential for polluting groundwater is low in the whole basin, whereas the resulting pesticide DRASTIC vulnerability map indicates that about 31% of the basin is classified as having moderate vulnerability, which may be attributed to agricultural activities in the area. Although high nitrate concentrations were found in areas of moderate vulnerability, DRASTIC method did not depict accurately the nitrate distribution in the area.     

Groundwater resources assessment using numerical model: A case study in low-lying coastal area

The impacts of climate change and human pressure in groundwater have been greatest threats facing small islands. This paper represents a case study of groundwater responses towards the climate change and human pressures in Manukan Island Malaysia. SEAWAT-2000 was used for the simulations of groundwater response in study area. Simulations of six scenarios representing climate change and human pressures showed changes in hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations. Reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate can alter the bad effects of overdrafts in Manukan Island. In general, reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate are capable to restore and protect the groundwater resources in Manukan Island. Thus, for groundwater management options in Manukan Island, scenario 2 is capable to lessen the seawater intrusion into the aquifer and sustain water resources on a long-term basis. The selection of scenario 6 is the preeminent option during wet season. The output of this study provides a foundation which can be used in other small islands of similar hydrogeological condition for the purpose of groundwater resources protection.     

Karst morphology and groundwater vulnerability of high alpine karst plateaus

High alpine karst plateaus are recharge areas for major drinking water resources in the Alps and many other regions. Well-established methods for the vulnerability mapping of groundwater to contamination have not been applied to such areas yet. The paper characterises this karst type and shows that two common vulnerability assessment methods (COP and PI) classify most of the areas with high vulnerability classes. In the test site on the Hochschwab plateau (Northern Calcareous Alps, Austria), overlying layers are mostly absent, not protective or even enhance point recharge, where they have aquiclude character. The COP method classifies 82% of the area as highly or extremely vulnerable. The resulting maps are reasonable, but do not differentiate vulnerabilities to the extent that the results can be used for protective measures. An extension for the upper end of the vulnerability scale is presented that allows identifying ultra vulnerable areas. The proposed enhancement of the conventional approach points out that infiltration conditions are of key importance for vulnerability. The method accounts for karst genetical and hydrologic processes using qualitative and quantitative properties of karst depressions and sinking streams including parameters calculated from digital elevations models. The method is tested on the Hochschwab plateau where 1.7% of the area is delineated as ultra vulnerable. This differentiation could not be reached by the COP and PI methods. The resulting vulnerability map highlights spots of maximum vulnerability and the combination with a hazard map enables protective measures for a manageable area and number of sites.     

Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure.     

西安市地下水污染广义/狭义脆弱性对比研究

从"污染源排放→包气带输送→地下水污染"的系统出发,提出了地下水污染广义和狭义脆弱性的概念,并构建了相应的指标体系和评价方法;在广泛污染源调查和水文地质调查的基础上,在GIS支持下完成了地下水污染脆弱性分析试验.结果显示:纯水文地质条件的狭义脆弱性,各河道、漫滩阶地、一级阶地和老城人工填土区最为脆弱;考虑土地利用和污染源分布的广义脆弱性评价,西安市建城区和北郊污灌区敏感最高.从而得出,狭义脆弱性适合人类活动差异较小的较大区域,而广义脆弱性适合人类活动差异较大的城市区域,两者有其适用的条件和范围.     

Climate and irrigation scenario analyses using three-dimensional numerical modelling: a case study of the Nasia sub-basin in the White Volta Basin,Ghana

A groundwater resource characterisation and assessment model was developed for Nasia river sub-basin in the White Volta Basin, Ghana. The model is useful to policymakers for planning and sustainable management of groundwater resources in the basin for domestic and irrigation purposes. A conceptual model was constructed that characterized boundary conditions and hydrostratigraphy, and estimated recharge rates and hydraulic and storage parameters. From current understanding of the hydrogeological dynamics, three hydrostratigraphic layers were delineated. The conceptual model was converted to a three-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow model using MODFLOW. Recharge rates estimated from the base model indicate a minimum of 1.1% and maximum of 6.2% of the total rainfall. The hydraulic conductivity ranged between 0.20 and 15 m/day. Four possible scenarios were simulated: (1) increased population, (2) climate variations (reduced recharge), (3) increased abstraction for irrigation, and (4) worst-case scenario which is a combination of the first three scenarios. Results from scenarios 1 and 2 indicated that, under such conditions, the groundwater resources could be sustained and no significant effect on any of the water budget indicators was observed. For scenario 3, there was significant drop in hydraulic head in the central portions of the study area. The scenario 4 simulation indicated that there was significant reduction in groundwater levels and groundwater discharge into streams under these stressors. Such reduction can affect stream levels in the basin and, subsequently, the ecosystem. These findings are valid within the limits of uncertainty in the hydrogeological data that were used in this study.

     

Mapping favorable groundwater potential recharge zones using a GIS-based analytical hierarchical process and probability frequency ratio model:A case study from an agro-urban region of Pakistan

In Punjab(Pakistan),the increasing population and expansion of land use for agriculture have severely exploited the regional groundwater resources.Intensive pumping has resulted in a rapid decline in the level of the water table as well as its quality.Better management practices and artificial recharge are needed for the development of sustainable groundwater resources.This study proposes a methodology to delineate favorable groundwater potential recharge zones(FPRI) by integrating maps of groundwater potential recharge index(PRI) with the DRASTIC-based groundwater vulnerability index(VI).In order to evaluate both indexes,different thematic layers corresponding to each index were overlaid in ArcGIS.In the overlay analysis,the weights(for various thematic layers) and rating values(for sub-classes) were allocated based on a review of published literature.Both were then normalized and modified using the analytical hierarchical process(AHP) and a frequency ratio model respectively.After evaluating PRI and FPRI,these maps were validated using the area under the curve(AUC) method.The PRI map indicates that 53% of the area assessed exists in very low to low recharge zones,22% in moderate,and 25% in high to excellent potential recharge zones.The VI map indicates that 38% of the area assessed exists in very low to low vulnerability,33% in moderate,and 29% in high to very high vulnerability zones.The FPRI map shows that the central region of Punjab is moderately-to-highly favorable for recharge due to its low vulnerability and high recharge potential.During the validation process,it was found that the AUC estimated with modified weights and rating values was 79% and 67%,for PRI and VI indexes,respectively.The AUC was less when evaluated using original weights and rating values taken from published literature.Maps of favorable groundwater potential recharge zones are helpful for planning and implementation of wells and hydraulic structures in this region.     

Hydrogeological component assessment for water resources management of semi-arid region: a case study of Gwalior,M.P., India

Groundwater management is of fundamental importance to meet the rapidly expanding urban, industrial and agricultural water requirements in semi-arid areas. To assess the current rate of groundwater withdrawal and possibility of recharge of potential aquifer in the semi-arid regions is essential for water management. The present study aimed to identify potential area for groundwater recharge structure in the Gwalior area based on land use, rainfall variation, hydrological component and statistical analysis. In this work, a stream survival approach was used for the assessment of water channel by using triangulated network and regression analysis to find out the correlation of individual component with reference to water management. Land use/land cover (LULC) map prepared from multispectral satellite images of the study area and used to validate the hydrological component and the results observed through the regression model shows good correlation. Therefore, immediate and effective water management schemes are required for sustainable water resource development and management in the area.     

Comparison of the AVI,modified SINTACS and GALDIT vulnerability methods under future climate-change scenarios for a shallow low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland

A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater–seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.     

海河流域地下水资源保护

地下水资源在海河流域至关重要的资源。海河平原的浅层和深层含水层大面积处于严重超采状态。地下水资源的的过量开采造成了严重环境问题。为了保护地下水资源，评价了可行的技术。利用洪水和废水进行人工回灌已进行了试验。在很多地区可以应用地表回灌系统，城市地区实施深层含水层的回灌。更好地策略是减少地下水的抽取量，特别是为了减缓地面沉降和海水入侵。应该联合运用减少地下水抽水量和人工回灌，以解决地下水位持续下降和含水层恢复的问题。     

Groundwater vulnerability mapping for a sub-catchment of the Rio La Venta watershed,Chiapas, Mexico

Karst systems are particularly vulnerable to overexploitation and pollution due to their high hydraulic conductivity and points of rapid infiltration that allow quick influx of runoff and pollutants into the aquifer. The sustainability of non-contaminated groundwater in these systems is imperative for both humans and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. An important practice in managing groundwater sustainability involves assessing aquifer vulnerability. This study created the first groundwater vulnerability map (GVM) for a sub-catchment of the Rio La Venta watershed in Chiapas, Mexico, using an adaptation of the hazard–pathway–target method. This project also conducted the first tracer study in the Rio la Venta watershed to establish connectivity between the catchment and the Rio La Venta Canyon. Finally, this study evaluated the results of the GVM through a sensitivity analysis. Results of the GVM clearly demarcate areas of very high, high, moderate, and low vulnerability within the study area most of which being classified as low vulnerability. The zones of high vulnerability were successfully validated through two dye tracer tests that measured rapid groundwater flow velocities. With the limited resources available to land managers in this area, a problem common in many developing countries, tools that quickly and inexpensively highlight areas that require special protection to help maintain or improve water quality in their watersheds have great utility. Conveying this information to land managers and policymakers can lead to potential changes in current land use practices and allow for the reallocation of resources in support of reducing future negative human–landscape interactions.     

Artificial groundwater recharge to a semi-arid basin: case study of Mujib aquifer,Jordan

Mujib watershed is an important groundwater basin which is considered a major source for drinking and irrigation water in Jordan. Increased dependence on groundwater needs improved aquifer management with respect to understanding deeply recharge and discharge issues, planning rates withdrawal, and facing water quality problems arising from industrial and agricultural contamination. The efficient management of this source depends on reliable estimates of the recharge to groundwater and is needed in order to protect Mujib basin from depletion. Artificial groundwater recharge was investigated in this study as one of the important options to face water scarcity and to improve groundwater storage in the aquifer. A groundwater model based on the MODFLOW program, calibrated under both steady- and unsteady-state conditions, was used to investigate different groundwater management scenarios that aim at protecting the Mujib basin. The scenarios include variations of abstraction levels combined with different artificial groundwater recharge quantities. The possibilities of artificial groundwater recharge from existing and proposed dams as well as reclaimed municipal wastewater were investigated. Artificial recharge options considered in this study are mainly through injecting water directly to the aquifer and through infiltration from reservoir. Three scenarios were performed to predict the aquifer system response under different artificial recharge options (low, moderate, and high) which then compared with no action (recharge) scenario. The best scenario that provides a good recovery for the groundwater table and that can be feasible is founded to be by reducing current abstraction rates by 20% and implementing the moderate artificial recharge rates of 26 million(M)m³/year. The model constructed in this study helps decision makers and planners in selecting optimum management schemes suitable for such arid and semi-arid regions.     

Evaluation of groundwater vulnerability in the lower Varuna catchment area,Uttar Pradesh,India using AVI concept

Groundwater vulnerability assessments calculate the sensitivity of quality of groundwater to an imposed contaminant load which is essential element of the aquifer management plans. Seventy five groundwater samples have been analyzed for different chemical parameters to understand the groundwater quality of the lower Varuna river basin, Uttar Pradesh, India. The intrinsic groundwater vulnerability map of the lower Varuna catchment area in the north of the city of Varanasi (India) shows a high dependency on the depth to groundwater. The topmost layer of alluvial silty clay, protects the groundwater against contamination in this urban area, but the retention time in the unsaturated zone can be estimated to several months only. The input dataset is very sparse i.e. groundwater levels were measured twice (pre- and post-monsoon 2009) and the geological map shows only alluvium as the outcrop. Several boreholes in this area show, that the alluvium has a thickness of about 4 m and below that are fine grained sands. The surface information does not allow the development of a risk map since land use changes very fast and contamination areas can not be identified accurately. The vulnerability maps developed in this study have become important tools for environmental planning and predictive management of the groundwater resources in the fast urbanizing region in the Varanasi area.     

Impact of climate change on waterlogging and salinity distributions in Huai Khamrian subwatershed, NE Thailand

Regional climate models project significant changes in temperature and rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion over the twenty-first century. The potential impacts of climate change on areas affected by waterlogging and shallow saline groundwater in Northeast Thailand was investigated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimates derived from the hydrologic model HELP3. The focal area is the 154 km² Huai Kamrian subwatershed. Changes in groundwater salinity and waterlogging areas at the middle and end of this century were predicted using the calibrated model. These predictions used the dynamically downscaled PRECIS regional climate change scenarios generated by ECHAM4 GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Recharge rates are predicted to increase as a result of the higher intensity of rainfall. Shallow watertable areas are projected to increase by approximately 23 % from existing conditions during the middle of the century and up to 25 % by the end of this century. Although the precise rate and timing of climate change impacts are uncertain, all of the scenarios clearly point towards an extension in the area of waterlogging and area affected by shallow saline groundwater areas. Given that areas affected by shallow saline watertables are predicted to expand for both climate change scenarios as well as for the base case, it is concluded that climate change will have a significant impact on the area affected by salinity and waterlogging areas for both climate change scenarios. Evaluation of management options that explore the adaptation to saline environments and to means to reduce salt affected areas are required.