基于自组织数据挖掘方法的经济预警研究

目前经济预警方法主要包括指标预警、统计预警、模型预警3类，这3类方法各有优劣。模型预警法常使用ARCH模型预警与人工神经网络模型预警。将自组织数据挖掘方法引入经济预警建模过程，通过实证研究发现：自组织数据挖掘方法在经济预警研究中具有较强的学习能力，在模型变量筛选时能有效避免人为因素的影响；与人工神经网络相比较，它建立的显式模型能够反映输入指标对输出指标的具体影响状况，将有助于分析警源，排除警情。研究结果表明，自组织数据挖掘方法将为经济预警提供一种新的模型预警法。     

Geographical information system-based assessment of ecological security in Changbai Mountain region

Ecological security defined as the creation of a condition where the physical surroundings of a community provide for the needs of its inhabitants without diminishing its natural stock,which is important for regional security and social stability.In recent years,land use patterns in the Changbai Mountain region have changed significantly with intensive human activities,and consequently led to increasing problems in regional ecological security.Based on the Pressure-State-Impact-Response（PSIR） model and the mathematical method of catastrophe progression supported by geographical information system（GIS）,the ecological security situation of the study area under land use and cover change（LUCC） was evaluated.The results indicated that the ecological security in Changbai Mountain region varied nonlinearly,which got better from 1990 to 2000 but became worse from 2000 to 2007,the ecological security levels in Changbai Mountain region were mainly medium and medium to low during the past 17 years,with higher values of Ecological Security Index（ESI） in the central region and lower values in the east and west,the ecological security situation was more serious in the settlements and river valleys,where the LUCC was most remarkable.     

基于ALOS遥感数据的新丰江流域生态安全GIS评价

基于ALOS遥感影像,采用10m×10m的栅格精度,以乡镇行政区划作为综合评价单元,在G IS的支持下,获取了18种评价因子信息。通过建立生态安全指数模型,计算出每个栅格和每个乡镇区域的生态安全指数并将其划分为6个等级,即Ⅰ级到Ⅵ级(生态安全状况由非常安全到极不安全)。结果表明,新丰江流域内的生态安全状况整体上较好,但安全等级分布不平衡,具有明显的区域性特征,生态堪忧地区为居民及工矿用地密集区,主要分布在流域的北部、东南部和中部的采矿区,如上坪镇、元善镇和上莞镇等;生态较为安全的区域主要分布在流域中部,如新丰江库区附近的锡场镇、半江镇等。该方法为流域的生态安全评价、预警、保护及管理提供了有效手段,具有积极的实用价值。     

Spatio-temporal evolution of ecologically-sustainable land use in China's Loess Plateau and detection of its influencing factors

Ecological land(Eco-land) is a basic resource for human beings to survive, and eco-land use is a strategy, a way to manage the land resource. So, ecologically-sustainable land use is essential for human beings to survive. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of urban-rural eco-land using a new and innovative integration way based on eco-land change data in China's Loess Plateau(LP) prefecture level cities and explores factors of eco-land change. The spatial difference characteristic of eco-land among different level cities in the LP is that: small cities big cities middle cities. From 2009 to 2016, the eco-land in the LP from the perspective of urban-rural areas has changed significantly. Significant differences of urban-rural eco-land were identified among various urban growth types, and all the cities in the LP were further classified into four types based on eco-land change trend, with type A and B cities identified as the vital zone and major zone. Taking the eco-fragile region Loess Plateau(LP) as an example, our results demonstrated that the migrants to cities in LP could relieve ecological pressures and promote restoration of ecological vegetation. We have demonstrated that urbanization and the influence of government policy can be discerned through the quantification of the spatial-temporal change of eco-land and suggest that combining both urban and rural eco-land can support more effective land use decisions and provide theoretical basis for the practical application of urban planning, policy-making and sustainable development. What's more, governments should strive to population mobility and restore vegetation to sustain this fragile ecological environment.     

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN KARST MOUNTAINOUS AREA—A Case Study of Du'an Yao Autonomous County in Guangxi

Ecological security is the main task and applied ficld of present geography, resources and environment sciences and ecology. Ecological security evaluation will efficiently promote ecological security and environmental construction in regional land use. In this thesis, the authors put forward the index system of ecological security evaluation in karst mountainous area on three aspects, the pressure of resources and eco-environment, the quality of resources and eco-environment, and the ability of environmental protection and ecological improvement. Using the evaluation method with single index, based on the case study of Du'an Yao Autonomous County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the system of synthetic regionalization of ecological agricultural economy was formed, which includes three regions, south region with basic security and synthetic agricultural development, east region with critical security and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry balanced development, mid-west and south region with eco     

基于主客观分析法的城市生态安全格局空间评价

生态安全是城市生态文明建设的主要目标,是城市经济可持续发展的重要基础,评价城市生态安全格局对于城市规划具有极其重要的作用。本文通过选取典型评价指标,运用生态安全格局客观分析法与主观分析法进行对比分析,建立了包括生态系统服务安全格局、生物多样性保护安全格局、生态敏感性安全格局的生态安全格局综合评价体系,并将该评价体系运用到研究区域,对研究区域生态安全格局的变化趋势进行评价和分析。结果表明：①在基本生态控制线内,低水平、较低水平生态安全格局区域的面积有所增加;在基本生态控制线外,中水平生态安全格局区域的面积有所减少;整体上高水平生态安全格局区域面积基本不变。②生态安全格局主观分析法评价结果主要依赖于专家的评定,本文采用的专家评价方法结果与客观分析法评价结果一致。该评价体系已经应用于研究区域的城乡规划和生态保护中,应用结果表明该评价体系能够较完备地进行城市生态安全格局评价,对城市规划和生态保护具有重要的指导作用。     

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN KARST MOUNTAINOUS AREA——A Case Study of Du＇an Yao Autonomous County in Guangxi

Ecological security is the main task and applied field of present geography, resources and environment sciences and ecology. Ecological security evaluation will efficiently promote ecological security and environmental construction in regional land use. In this thesis, the authors put forward the index system of ecological security evaluation in karst mountainous area on three aspects, the pressure of resources and eco-environment, the quality of resources and eco-environment, and the ability of environmental protection and ecological improvement. Using the evaluation method with single index, based on the case study ofDu‘an Yao Autonomous County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the system ofsynthetic regionalization ofecological agricultural economy was formed, which includes three regions, south region with basic security and synthetic agricultural development, east region with critical security and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry balanced development, mid-west and south region with ecological insecurity and compounded agriculture and forestry management. Meanwhile, for these regions, the countermeasures of sustainable agricultural development were pointed out, which provide the basis and example for ecological regulation and control of sustainable agricultural development in counties of karst mountainous area.     

生态文明视域下的福建海峡蓝色经济区海洋生态补偿机制探讨

作为调整海洋利益相关者关系的市场化生态治理工具,海洋生态补偿是保护海洋资源环境、建设海洋生态文明的重要举措。海洋生态环境的公共物品性、外部性为海洋生态补偿提供了理论依据,也凸显了海洋生态价值和环境正义。随着《福建海峡蓝色经济试验区发展规划》的制定和实施,福建海峡蓝色经济区建设面临新的历史发展机遇,海洋生态补偿的作用日益凸显。福建海峡蓝色经济区海洋生态补偿机制改革正稳步推进,取得了一定成效,但也面临一些亟待解决的问题。有必要按照福建海洋经济强省的战略部署,结合福建海峡蓝色经济区建设对海洋生态文明的客观需要,多管齐下,完善海洋生态补偿机制,创新海洋生态环境管理体制。     

禹城市土地利用与生态环境的关系

生态环境问题已成为当今世界制约可持续发展最为重要的问题,土地利用变化可引起生态环境的改变。根据禹城市土地利用结构的变化情况,分析土地利用与生态环境的关系,指出土地利用结构的变化可导致生态环境的改变。要保护好生态环境,就必须科学合理地利用土地。     

武陵山区生态安全格局演变分析

本文依据武陵山区遥感调查数据及社会经济统计数据,运用灰色关联度模型计算2000年和2010年生态安全综合指数,并对研究区生态安全综合指数的时空演变特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)2000年研究区生态安全综合指数处于Ⅲ级临界安全和Ⅱ级较差安全水平,2010年生态安全综合指数整体处于Ⅲ级临界安全水平之上;(2)2期Moran's I指数分别为0.3828及0.4411,P值均小于0.01,生态安全综合指数在空间上表现出较强正相关,存在空间聚集性,且2010年聚集性更强;(3)武陵山区2期生态安全综合指数空间分布出现较大变化,且都呈现高值,低值聚集;(4)生态安全综合指数与扶贫人口比例及森林覆盖率呈正相关,与农民人均纯收入没有必然的联系.     

基于FLUS模型的大都市区土地利用优化模拟——以深圳市为例

采用深圳市2010年、2015年和2016年的土地利用现状数据,运用FLUS模型对自然发展情景、生态安全情景和生态优化情景3种情景下2030年深圳市土地利用结构和空间布局的变化进行模拟。研究结果表明:以2010年为基期模拟2015年土地利用布局的kappa指数为0.862,模拟结果较为理想。3种情景下深圳市2030年土地利用布局既有共性也存在差异。生态优化情景在禁止建设区把部分生产性用地转变为具有重要生态功能的林地,在限制建设区严格控制新增建设用地,在集中连片的控制区内限制生产活动,比自然发展情景和生态安全情景更能达到城市建设和生态保护的双重目标。     

GIS与管道生态模型的整合研究

GIS与各种专业模型的整合是其重要发展趋势之一。本文分析了GIS与管道生态模型整合中的主要技术问题和可行的解决路线,指出了主要发展方向。作者主张采用GIS二次开发工具和管道生态模型进行整合,这种方式可以和具体工作深入结合。文章详细介绍了作者在开发＂西部管道生态保护专家系统＂的工作中,解决二者整合所取得的研究进展和成果。作者将GIS、管道生态模型两者进行有机整合,实现了GIS数据和管道生态数据的紧密结合以及与GIS紧密结合的管道生态影响和恢复预测。     

莱芜市石棚损毁山体恢复治理方案探讨

矿山生态地质环境恢复治理是生态文明建设的环境基础。该文在介绍莱芜市石棚地区的地质、水文特征的基础上,对损毁山体的地质环境现状和存在危害进行了分析,提出了矿山生态地质环境恢复治理的生态、工程措施,实现了生态、社会、经济三大效益的协调发展。     

肥城市土地生态系统安全评价研究

在分析土地生态系统安全内涵的基础上,以肥城市为研究区域,选取24个指标构建土地生态系统安全评价指标体系,采用熵值法、综合指数法和GIS相结合的方法,对肥城市2000—2013年的土地生态系统安全状况进行分析。研究结果表明:14年来,肥城市土地生态系统安全状况处于波动状态,土地生态系统安全面临着诸多压力。最后提出了提高土地生态系统安全状况的对策建议。     

Ecological Footprint dynamics of Yunnan, China

A fundamental element of sustainable development is that humans live within nature＇s biological capacity. Quantifying this, however, remains a significant challenge for which there are many emerging tools. The concept of the Ecological Footprint is one such accounting tool for comprehensive assessment of the status of sustainable development, based on integration of resource consumption and land capacity, reflecting the human impact on the environment. A region＇s development is defined as unsustainable when the Ecological Footprint surpasses the biological capacity. In this paper, the Ecological Footprint concept Was applied in assessing the development of Yunnan Province, China in a period between 1988 and 2006. The results showed that the Ecological Footprint per capita in Yunnan rose from 0.854 gha in 1988 to 2.11 gha in 2006. Ecological deficit, defined as when the human demand on the land surpasses the regions biological productive capacity, emerged in 1991 and quickly increased from 0.02 gha in 1991 to 1.05 gha in 2006. The increase in the ecological deficit is primarily a result of the rapid increase in population and consumption level. To achieve sustainable development in Yunnan, production and consumption rates need to be modified.     

县域生态景观要素信息图谱的图像分析

“数字福建”、“数字厦门”正在建设中。本文以永泰县为例,在RS技术支持下,对生态景观要素信息图谱进行初步研究。利用影像光谱信息统计分析、特征变换等进行生态景观要素(生态水、生态能和生态元)的遥感监测,对山区水热状况、山区植被类型作了分析。     

Impacts of anthropogenic and biophysical factors on ecological land using logistic regression and random forest:A case study in Mentougou District,Beijing,China

Ecological land is an important guarantee to maintain urban ecological security and sustainable development.Although increasing studies have been brought to eco...     

县级国土空间生态修复规划探索

国土空间生态修复是筑牢生态本底、优化空间格局、提升生态功能、塑造美丽生态国土的重要推动力。当前全国各地国土空间生态修复规划编制工作处于探索和初期规划编制阶段,体系框架和具体思路尚未明确,本文以莒县国土空间生态修复规划为例,从本底分析、问题识别、目标定位、格局优化、修复分区等方面进行了探索,形成了一套较为完善的生态修复体系框架,为编制其他城市的国土空间生态修复规划提供参考。     

松嫩平原农牧渔交错区生态敏感性评价研究——以杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县为例

生态敏感性评价对区域生态环境建设治理具有重要实践意义和科学价值。本论文在RS、GIS技术支持下,采用ETM影像、土壤分布特征以及其他相关地理信息,选用土壤类型、植被覆盖程度、土地利用现状等作为生态敏感性评价的主要因子,并利用层次分析法确定评价因子的权重值,建立生态敏感性评价模型,对农牧渔交错区(以杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县为例)进行生态敏感性评价的研究。该文的研究结论是:低度生态敏感区以湿地生态系统和湖泡生态系统为主,包括生态状况维持较好的草原区域,抗自然灾害能力较强;中度生态敏感区以农田、草原复合生态系统为主,具有一定的生态恢复能力,能抵抗适度的人为扰动;高度生态敏感区以沙土农田、沙地草原以及湖泡周围的盐碱地生态系统为主,自我调节能力弱,相对稳定性较差。本文研究表明,利用遥感技术获取影像信息,结合地理信息系统相关空间分析方法进行区域的生态敏感性评价,具有实际可操作性,评价结果合理可靠,可以为区域生态建设提供科学依据。     

环长株潭城市群湿地生态安全研究

本文选取环长株潭城市群为研究区域,以Landsat TM影像解译后的土地利用数据、MODIS影像计算的植被指数,以及人口、经济和气候数据等为数据源,基于“压力-状态-响应”框架模型构建湿地生态安全评价指标体系对该区域2000-2010年湿地生态安全进行综合评价。结果表明：（1）环长株潭城市群2000、2005、2010年湿地生态安全指数均值分别为0.7268、0.7151和0.7196,湿地生态安全状态“良好”,生态安全等级程度为“较安全”。（2）环长株潭城市群区域差异性明显,一级湿地生态安全区主要分布在洞庭湖周边,二级湿地生态安全区沿主要河流分布,三级湿地生态安全区主要分布在2个或3个城市之间的交界区域。（3)研究期间环长株潭城市群湿地面积变化明显,该区域湿地总面积逐年减少;森林沼泽、草本沼泽、湖泊、河流、水田的斑块分维数均呈增加趋势;水库/坑塘、河流破碎度指数明显高于其他景观类型,湿地生态系统服务价值总体减少。在此基础上,从土地利用变化与转型、湿地景观结构与功能、自然因素等方面对影响该区域湿地生态安全的主要驱动因子进行了分析。结果表明,人类社会经济活动直接作用于湿地生态环境,通过改变区域景观和土地利用结构使湿地面积发生变化,直接影响湿地生态安全。气温、降水等气候因素通过改变水热状况和植被覆盖,间接影响湿地生态安全。针对该区域湿地生态安全存在的问题,建议在发展过程中正确处理好经济与生态环境之间的关系,尽可能减少人类活动对湿地生态环境的干扰。