Important progress on the use of isotope techniques and methods in catchment hydrology

The use of isotope techniques and methods in catchment hydrology in the last 50 years has generated two major types of progress: (1) Assessment of the temporal variations of the major stocks and flows of water in catchments, from which the estimation of wa-ter residence times is introduced in this paper. (2) Assessment of catchment hydrologic processes, in which the interactions be-tween different waters, hydrographical separation, and bio-geochemical process are described by using isotopes tracers. Future progress on isotope techniques and methods in hydrology is toward the understanding of the hydrological process in large river basins. Much potential also waits realization in terms of how isotope information may be used to calibrate and test distributed rainfall-runoff models and regarding aid in the quantification of sustainable water resources management.     

An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale: A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis (IA) approach by combining with system dynamics (SD) model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000–2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized scenario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different underlying surface of LUCC.     

Study on daily surface evapotranspiration with SEBS in Tibet Autonomous Region简

The estimation of surface evapotranspiration （ET） with satellite dataset is one of the main subjects in the understanding of climate change, disaster monitoring and the circulation of water vapor and energy in Tibet Autonomous Region （TAR）. This research selects satellite images on January 11, April 6, July 31 and October 19 in 2010 as the representative of winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively, estimates the distribution of daily surface ET based on the surface energy balance system （SEBS） along with potential evapotranspiration （PET） and ET derived from Penman-Monteith （P-M） method. The results are obtained as follows. （1） The seasonal distribution of ET and PET basically decreases from the southeast part to the northwest part of TAR. Although ET and PET have similar spatial distributions, there are still some differences to estimate the extreme values especially the maximum value in the middle and southeastern parts of TAR. No matter what kind of methods we adopted, the maximum value of ET and PET always appears in summer, followed by autumn or spring while that in winter is the smallest. （2） In order to better understand the accuracy of SEBS model in the estimation of ET, we compared the ET from SEBS and the ET obtained from P-M method. Results show that the ET from SEBS could estimates the variation trend of actual ET, but it slightly underestimates or overestimates the value of ET as a whole, especially for those areas with thick forest. （3） The spatial distribution of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） exhibits a decreasing trend from the southeast part to the northwest part of TAR which displays remarkable consistency of distributions between ET and vegetation index. ET is well positively related to NDVI, minimum, mean, maximum air temperature and sunshine duration in different seasons while negatively related to precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed in summer.     

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)

The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.     

基于克里格回归分析和机器学习算法的日本福岛县土地价格估算与制图的比较分析

Finding accurate methods for estimating and mapping land prices at the macro-scale based on publicly accessible and low-cost spatial data is an essential step in producing a meaningful reference for regional planners.This asset would assist them in making economically justified decisions in favor of key investors for development projects and post-disaster recovery efforts.Since 2005,the Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,and Transport of Japan has made land price data open to the public in the form of observations at dispersed locations.Although this data is useful,it does not provide complete information at every site for all market participants.Therefore,estimating and mapping land prices based on sound statistical theories is required.This paper presents a comparative study of spatial prediction of land prices in 2015 in Fukushima prefecture based on geostatistical methods and machine learning algorithms.Land use,elevation,and socioeconomic factors,including population density and distance to railway stations,were used for modeling.Results show the superiority of the random forest algorithm.Overall,land prices are distributed unevenly across the prefecture with the most expensive land located in the western region characterized by flat topography and the availability of well-connected and highly dense economic hotspots.     

三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文)

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.     

分布式水文模型全局敏感性高效分析方法研究(英文)

Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is the key for model uncertainty quantification. However, how to effectively validate model and identify the dominant parameters for distributed hydrological models is a bottle-neck to achieve parameters optimization. For this reason, a new approach was proposed in this paper, in which the support vector machine was used to construct the response surface at first. Then it integrates the SVM-based response surface with the Sobol’ method, i.e. the RSMSobol’ method, to quantify the parameter sensitivities. In this work, the distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) was applied to the Huaihe River Basin, which was used as a case to verify its validity and feasibility. We selected three objective functions (i.e. water balance coefficient WB, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient NS, and correlation coefficient RC) to assess the model performance as the output responses for sensitivity analysis. The results show that the parameters g1 and g2 are most important for all the objective functions, and they are almost the same to that of the classical approach. Furthermore, the RSMSobol method can not only achieve the quantification of the sensitivity, and also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approach. And this approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis for a complex modelling system.     

Advances in research of land surface evapotranspiration at home and abroad

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is an important part of the hydrologic cycle and energy balances.With the development of remote sensing technology,research on monitoring and estimating of evapotranspiration has made important progress.This paper summarizes advances in measuring and estimating regional evapotranspiration at home and abroad based on traditional methods and remote sensing.This summary includes such methods as Bowen,Gradient,Penman-Monteith,Water Balance,Eddy Correlation,SPAC,Energy Balance and Remote Sensing.Also,the evapotranspiration achievements in the Heihe River Basin are also discussed.Finally,the existing problems in regional evapotranspiration research and future development prospects are also discussed at the conclusion of this paper.     

偏最小二乘法在苏锡常地区土地利用研究中的应用

In several LUCC studies, statistical methods are being used to analyze land use data. A problem using conventional statistical methods in land use analysis is that these methods assume the data to be statistically independent. But in fact, they have the tendency to be dependent, a phenomenon known as multicollinearity, especially in the cases of few observations. In this paper, a Partial Least-Squares （PLS） regression approach is developed to study relationships between land use and its influencing factors through a case study of the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region in China. Multicollinearity exists in the dataset and the number of variables is high compared to the number of observations. Four PLS factors are selected through a preliminary analysis. The correlation analyses between land use and influencing factors demonstrate the land use character of rural industrialization and urbanization in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region, meanwhile illustrate that the first PLS factor has enough ability to best describe land use patterns quantitatively, and most of the statistical relations derived from it accord with the fact. By the decreasing capacity of the PLS factors, the reliability of model outcome decreases correspondingly.     

水文循环模拟中蒸散发估算方法综述

为选取基于水文循环估算蒸散发方法提供依据, 首先对常用水文模型中蒸散发估算方法进行回顾, 根据其物理机理的强弱性, 将水文模型中蒸散估算方法分为整体折算法和分类汇总法。当前水文模型中整体折算法占较大比重, 它们之间的差异有两点:一是潜在蒸散发估算方法不同;二是土壤干燥度折算函数不同;研究表明:由于水文模型存在不确定性及Penman-Monteith 方法具有较高资料要求, 致使模拟中使用该方法与使用其它简化经验公式相似或更差的水文循环模拟效果。所以对于不同水文模型, 如何选取与之复杂程度相兼容的潜在蒸散发估算方程和土壤干燥度折算函数来降低模型的不确定性需进一步讨论。在此基础上, 预估基于水文循环估算蒸散发方法朝着复杂机理化和简单实用化两个方向发展。     

基于辐射的潜在蒸散量估算方法适用性分析

根据不同气候区4个站的历史数据,选取8种基于辐射的PET估算方法,以FAO56-PM法计算的PET作为参考值进行比较分析,最后用20 cm蒸发皿蒸发量对所有方法在不同气候区的适用性进行评价.其结果表明,采用初始参数时,Hargreaves法在不同气候区估算的逐月以及多年月平均PET误差均较小,其它方法则产生较大误差.校...     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, "relative evaporation" and "relative drying power", a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

陆面实际蒸散研究

从能量平衡方程和热传导方程出发,引进"相对蒸散"和"相对干燥力",建立了用常规气象资料估算实际蒸散的理论模式。该模式避免了计算实际蒸散需首先计算可能蒸散这一过程,从而解决了由于采用不同的"可能蒸散"估算方法带来的误差。利用近30年的水文、气象等资料,在全国选择了九个有代表性的流域。对流域年实际蒸散量的模拟结果显示,除黄河流域部分年份外,可以将陆面年实际蒸散量的估算误差控制在10%以内。     

塔里木河流域白杨农田防护林蒸散量估算模型

以水面蒸发量为基础,利用多年的白杨农田防护林试验资料,建立了塔里木河流域白杨农田防护林蒸散量的两种估算模型,并利用白杨林实际蒸散量的测量值,分别对两种模型进行了验证。结果表明,从总体上来说,模型(Ⅰ)计算精度较高,但两种模型的相对误差都不是很大,都可以作为计算塔里木河流域白杨农田防护林蒸散量的方法而使用,但要根据具体情况加以应用。     

洛河流域蒸散发遥感反演及其与各参数的相关性分析

利用ETM数据和地表热量平衡模型估算洛河流域的蒸散发量,并结合地面实测资料进行检验,然后综合分析蒸散发量与土地利用/覆被、地表参数、地形参数的关系。研究发现,不同下垫面的蒸散发能力有一定的差别,其中水体和林地的日蒸散发量最大;蒸散发量与NDVI、植被覆盖度以及高程等参数呈线性相关,而与地表温度呈指数相关,与叶面积指数呈对数相关。     

互补相关蒸散发理论与应用研究

本文提出和建立了一个计算蒸散发能力和饱和湿润表面蒸散发量的经验公式,并把互补相关模型应用到湖北省十六个流域,江汉平原水网区和东湖的蒸散发估计。模型的计算值同水量估计值以及蒸发的研究和计算提供了另一条简便易行的途径。     

作物需水量研究进展的回顾与展望

国内外有关作物需水研究的进展情况和相关估算方法,包括研究内容、定量估算方法和数学预测方法,通过其分析论述了各方法的主要原理、特点及局限性,并指出了日前作物需水研究领域存在的主要问题是在非均一下垫面条件下,植被与环境以及植被间的相互作用要比均一下垫面复杂得多。目前的计算模式存在着许多假设,普适性不够,难以推广应用,今后需进一步研究的课题与采取的研究思路主要是改进蒸散计算方法。最后简要介绍了一种利用遥感蒸散模型率定通用陆面模式CoLM来估算区域陆面蒸散量以及陆地耗水量的思路。     

中国西北地区蒸发散量计算的遥感研究

自然陆面区域蒸发散的教育处是一个复杂的问题，在利用遥感资料求取地表特征参数的基础上，首先建立了2种极端条件下（裸露地表和全植被覆盖）的裸土蒸发和全植被覆盖蒸散计算模型，然后结合植被覆盖度给出非均匀陆面条件下的区域蒸发散计算方法，实测资料验算表明该模型具有较高的计算精度，最后利用该模型对我国西北5省区的蒸发散量进行了计算，并对该研究区蒸发散的特点进行了分析。