乌溪江水库地震的地震地质背景

乌溪江水库区原被认为是一稳定地区,但蓄水后库区中段发生了频繁的小震。本文根据现场地质调查和测震资料,对区域地震地质背景,库区地质环境、震中区地质条件和水库地震特征等,进行了分析论证,并与新丰江水库的诱震条件作了对比,运用地震地质类比法,对水库诱发地震的发展趋势作出了评价。1983年汛期该库首次蓄至正常高水位,地震的发展没有超出本文的估计     

广西龙滩水库诱发地震环境影响评价

本文根据现有地震地质资料,尤其是近五百年来库区周围的历史地震活动情况,对龙滩水库诱发地震可能造成的环境影响作了初步评价.其结果表明,库坝区存在发生破坏性水库地震的风险,尤其库区周围岩溶的存在,为诱发岩溶塌陷型水库地震创造了条件,对于水库堤坝岸坡的稳定是不利的,对库区周围的环境亦有不利影响.     

水口水库诱震的环境条件和库区垂直形变特征

简要分析了水口水库诱发地震的地质环境条件和初始应力,利用库区垂直形变监测资料,研究了大坝的坝体变形,库区近期垂直形变异常和断裂活动特征。分析表明,大坝坝体近期沉降偏大,应予以重视。     

小湾库区水库诱发地震的地质环境分析

在文献[1]的基础上,通过对小湾库区岩石介质、地质构造、构造应力场、库区及周围地震活动特点的分析,认为小湾库区水库诱发地震的地质环境比较复杂,存在发生岩溶型、裂隙型、构造型等三种成因类型的水库诱发地震的基本条件,而沿通过库区的澜沧江断裂带及其次级断层,和无量山断裂带发生构造型水库诱发地震,是小湾库区水库地震活动的主要诱发因素：     

水库坝体结构层的地质雷达高分辨率探测

水库坝体结构层形态复杂多变,缺陷隐蔽、规模小、探测难度大,为确保水库坝安全可靠地运行,采用高分辨率的物探方法对其探测是必需的。本文以某水库的地质雷达探测为例,简要介绍了地质雷达高分辨探测方法及其成果,为地质雷达技术在堤坝安全性可靠性评价中的推广应用提供了一个成功实例。     

水库诱发地震孕育与发生过程中超临界流体作用的思考

阐述易发地震"多震层"中的地下流体有产生二级相变的地质条件,在地下流体二级相变过程中释放出来的能量所产生地质动力使快速地质过程(地震)成为可能。结合在水利建设过程中的实际情况,讨论了在深大断裂附近可能发生地下流体二级相变引发的水库诱发地震。重点关注特定水库蓄水使得其下方可能出现的地下流体变化情况,对于水库诱发地震的监测预测都是十分重要的。在新建水库特别是大型水库时,应当避免在深大断裂附近选择建设水库大坝,以减小诱发水库地震的可能。     

邓家桥水库地震

人工诱发的水库地震问题,已广泛地引起工程地质,水文地质和地震地质工作者的注意。近50年来不少学者对水库地震的成因和诱发机制提出了不同意见,较为一致的是水库地震是一种特殊类型的构造地震,它的特殊之处就在于水对地震的触发作用,这种触发机理只是在活动构造总的地质背景下才显现出来。本文所介绍的邓家桥水库地震就是这种典型震例。     

水库区地壳稳定性与地震预测研究的途径和方法

随着经验的积累和科学技术的不断进步,水库地震预测的研究从以往的“现象描述－定性评价”逐渐进入“模式机制研究－定量评价”阶段。其重点是深入研究库区各种新构造运动的现象;地壳运动方式所决定的形变场与应力场和水载荷的作用等。具体作法较多,本文仅就水库区地质环境、水库规模、蓄水位、孔隙压和地形变与地震关系进行讨论。后两种方法是作者近期承担湖北省科委下达的有关课题研究时完成的。这些方法虽出于对水库区不同因素     

龙羊峡水库区的地震活动

分析了龙羊峡水库蓄水之前和蓄水之后库区的地震活动特征 ,以及库区的工程地质条件 ,认为近期库区的地震活动可能是水库诱发引起的     

四川冕宁大桥水库区水文地质与工程地质条件研究

分析了四川冕宁大桥水库坝区和库区的水地质和工程地质条件,由于库区内断裂比较发育,因此,水库蓄水后,库水将会下渗,易于发生诱发地震,由于大坝和库区位于安宁河断裂中段,因此应注意该段发生诱发地震的可能性,库坝区边坡较稳定,但是近库坝区局部边坡有失稳的可能性,虽然不致于影响水库的正常运行,但是也应引起重视。     

福建水口库区地震性质讨论

水口水库建成蓄水后,库区出现了频繁的地震活动,这可能是原有构造地震的进一步活动,也可能是水库诱发的。因此,有必要对水口水库蓄水后发生的地震性质进行判断。本文根据国内外已发生水库诱发地震震例资料和以往经验,结合水口库区具体情况,用定性判断法、概率法、扩散系数判别法等,对水口库区地震性质进行验证和判断,结果认为：水口库区蓄水后发生的地震属诱发地震。     

四川瀑布沟水库区域地震活动性跟踪研究

以水库诱发地震危险性指标体系为基础,构建瀑布沟水库诱发地震危险性评价表;对库区地震活动性跟踪,发现库区地震活动强度和频度没有因水库蓄、放水而出现明显的变化,综合判定瀑布沟水库发生较大诱发地震的危险性不高。     

无井条件下建立碎屑岩储层地震地质模型研究

常规的储层建模以井数据为基础,建立孔隙度、渗透率和含油饱和度等储层属性参数模型,并通过油田开发生产数据进行拟合,得到最佳地质模型.在南海西北部深水区无井控制的情况下,针对中央峡谷浊积水道储层,采用确定性建模与连续型随机建模相结合的方法,建立碎屑岩储层地震地质模型,应用地震正演模拟和相似性分析方法,确定浊积水道砂体最佳模拟参数.文章首先分析了碎屑岩储层特征,应用连续型随机建模的方法模拟储层空间分布.然后分析实际地震、地质资料,应用层序地层学思想,对研究区划分沉积体系域,建立层序地层格架;基于波阻抗和多种地震属性,采用人机交互的方法对浊积水道储层框架结构进行精细解释,建立储层结构模型;将储层结构模型与砂泥互层随机介质进行"交"、"并"运算,利用连续型随机模拟方法对储层内部介质进行精细刻画,建立中央峡谷浊积水道随机介质储层模型;通过对模型正演模拟、常规处理和相似性分析等建立最佳储层模型.文章研究了在无井条件下建立储层地震地质模型的方法,揭示南海西北部深水区中央峡谷浊积水道储层的空间展布和内部结构特征.     

Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation II. The value of players’ information availability and cooperative behaviors

Stochastic dynamic game models can be applied to derive optimal reservoir operation policies by considering interactions among water users and reservoir operator, their preferences, their levels of information availability and cooperative behaviors. The stochastic dynamic game model with perfect information (PSDNG) has been developed by [Ganji A, Khalili D, Karamouz M. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information. Adv Water Resour, this issue]. This paper develops four additional versions of stochastic dynamic game model of water users interactions based on the cooperative behavior and hydrologic information availability of beneficiary sectors of reservoir systems. It is shown that the proposed models are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies when compared with alternative operating models, as indicated by several reservoir performance characteristics. Among the proposed models, the selected model by considering cooperative behavior and additional hydrologic information (about the randomness nature of reservoir operation parameters), as exercised by reservoir operator, provides the highest attained level of performance and efficiency. Furthermore, the selected model is more realistic since it also considers actual behavior of water users and reservoir operator in the analysis.     

A non-traditional approach to the analysis of flood hazard for dams

The traditional and still prevailing approach to characterization of flood hazards to dams is the inflow design flood (IDF). The IDF, defined either deterministically or probabilistically, is necessary for sizing a dam, its discharge facilities and reservoir storage. However, within the dam safety risk informed decision framework, the IDF does not carry much relevance, no matter how accurately it is characterized. In many cases, the probability of the reservoir inflow tells us little about the probability of dam overtopping. Typically, the reservoir inflow and its associated probability of occurrence is modified by the interplay of a number of factors (reservoir storage, reservoir operating rules and various operational faults and natural disturbances) on its way to becoming the reservoir outflow and corresponding peak level—the two parameters that represent hydrologic hazard acting upon the dam. To properly manage flood risk, it is essential to change approach to flood hazard analysis for dam safety from the currently prevailing focus on reservoir inflows and instead focus on reservoir outflows and corresponding reservoir levels. To demonstrate these points, this paper presents stochastic simulation of floods on a cascade system of three dams and shows progression from exceedance probabilities of reservoir inflow to exceedance probabilities of peak reservoir level depending on initial reservoir level, storage availability, reservoir operating rules and availability of discharge facilities on demand. The results show that the dam overtopping is more likely to be caused by a combination of a smaller flood and a system component failure than by an extreme flood on its own.     

Influence of Ordovician carbonate reservoir beds in Tarim Basin by faulting

The quality of the Ordovician carbonate reservoir beds in the Tarim Basin is closely related to the development of secondary pores,fractures and cavities. Karstification is important in improving the properties of reservoir beds,and karstification related to unconformity has caught wide attention. Compared with the recent research on the unconformity karst reservoir bed improvement,this paper shows a new way of carbonate reservoir bed transformation. Based on field survey,core and slices observation,transformation of Ordovician carbonate reservoir beds by faulting can be classified into three types: (1) Secondary faults and fracturs generated by faulting improved carbonate reservoir bed properties,which were named the Lunnan or Tazhong82 model; (2) upflow of deep geothermal fluids caused by faulting,with some components metasomatizing with carbonate and forming some secon-dary deposit,such as fluorite. It can improve carbonate reservoir bed properties obviously and is named the Tazhong 82 model; and (3) the faulting extending up to the surface increased the depth of supergene karstification and the thickness of reservoir bed. It is named the Hetianhe model. Trans-formation effect of carbonate reservoir beds by faulting was very significant,mainly distributed on the slopes or on the edge or plunging end of the uplift.     

龙滩水库地震精定位及活动特征研究

本文利用结合了波形互相关技术的双差定位法对龙滩库区2006年至2007年发生的地震进行了精确定位,并对其活动特征进行了分析.通过定位结果的比较,证明利用波形互相关技术提取的地震对的P、S波走时差数据及双差精定位法显著地提高了定位的精度和质量.对龙滩库区地震活动特征的研究结果表明,龙滩库区的地震活动与水库蓄水过程密切相关,成丛分布的地震活动分别表现出对水库蓄水过程不同的响应过程和活动特征,反应了龙滩库区在岩性特征、渗透条件、地质构造及应力场等方面存在局部性差异.     

三峡水库诱发地震监测简介

长江三峡工程是举世瞩目的特大型水利枢纽工程。它的建设将对三峡库区及其周边环境产生巨大影响，水库诱发地震就是可能产生的众多影响之一。中国长江三峡工程开发总公司为了三峡水库周边及其下游的防震减灾需要，投资建设了“长江三峡工程诱发地震监测系统”。三峡数字遥测地震台网是该系统中的重要组成部分，担负了水库诱发地震活动的日常监测任务。本文从水库诱发地震问题出发，简要介绍了该台网的设计思路、布局、监测能力和技术系统。     

Quantitative integration of 3D and 4D seismic impedance into reservoir simulation model updating in the Norne Field

The ultimate goal of reservoir simulation in reservoir surveillance technology is to estimate long-term production forecasting and to plan development and management of petroleum fields. However, maintaining reliable reservoir models which honour available static and dynamic data, involve inherent risks due to the uncertainties in space and time of the distribution of hydrocarbons inside reservoirs. Recent applications have shown that these uncertainties can be reduced by quantitative integration of seismic data into the reservoir modelling workflows to identify which areas and reservoir attributes of the model should be updated. This work aims using seismic data to reduce ambiguity in calibrating reservoir flow simulation model with an uncertain petro-elastic model, proposing a circular workflow of inverted seismic impedance (3D and 4D) and engineering studies, with emphasis on the interface between static and dynamic models. The main contribution is to develop an updating procedure for adjusting reservoir simulation response before using it in the production forecasting and enhance the interpretive capability of reservoir properties. Accordingly, the workflow evaluates consistency of reservoir simulation model and inverted seismic impedance, assisted by production history data, to close the loop between reservoir engineering and seismic domains. The methodology is evaluated in a complex, faulted, sandstone reservoir, the Norne benchmark field, where a significant reservoir behaviour understanding (about the static and dynamic reservoir properties) is obtained towards the quantitative integration of seismic impedance data. This leads to diagnosis of the reservoir flow simulation reliability and generation of an updated simulation model consistent with observed seismic and well production history data, as well as a calibrated petro-elastic model. Furthermore, as Norne Field is a benchmark case, this study can be considered to enrich the discussions over deterministic or probabilistic history matching studies.     

基于聚类分析方法的砾岩油藏储层类型划分

砾岩油藏由于近物源、多水系和快速多变的沉积环境导致储层岩性复杂多变以及非均质性严重等特点,储层类型的精细划分成为该类油藏二次调整开发的重点和难点.本文以克拉玛依油田六中区克下组砾岩油藏为研究对象,选取密闭取心井岩心分析的物性参数、压汞驱替参数以及微观孔隙结构参数共计12项作为砾岩油藏储层类型划分的参数组合,对比研究了基于划分、基于层次、基于模型和基于密度的4种聚类算法建立的储层划分标准,结果表明基于划分的k-means算法建立的聚类标准最符合实际油藏的地质特征和储层类型的划分精度,内部度量的紧凑性、有效性和分辨性都优于其他三种算法,并且分析了Ⅴ类储层与岩性的对应关系,发现砾岩油藏储层类型受岩性控制的机制非常复杂,岩性相同的储层类型可能呈现出不同的物性和渗流性,而岩性不同的储层类型又可能表现为相同的物性和渗流性,其根本原因是储层非均质性造成的.储层类型与砾岩岩性的有效结合为该区精细开发方案的设计和水淹层的定量评价提供了技术支持.