NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料在喜马拉雅山-青藏高原气象研究中的可行性分析

Due to the difficult logistics in the extreme high elevation regions over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, the observational meteorological data are very few. In 2003, an automatic weather station was deployed at the northeastern saddle of Mt. Nyainqentanglha (NQ) (30°24′44.3″ N, 90°34′13.1″ E, 5850 m a.s.l.), the southern Tibetan Plateau. In 2005, another station was operated at the East Rongbuk Glacier Col (28°01′0.95″ N, 86°57′48.4″ E, 6523 m a.s.l.) of Mt. Qomolangma. Observational data from the two sites have been compared with the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data has been investigated in the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau region. The reanalysis data can capture much of the synoptic-scale variability in temperature and pressure, although the reanalysis values are systematically lower than the observation. Furthermore, most of the variability magnitude is, to some degree, underestimated. In addition, the weather event extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed pressure and temperature prominently appears one day ahead of the observational data on Mt. Qomolangma, while on Mt. NQ it occurs basically in the same day.     

NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料在珠穆朗玛峰 -念青唐古拉山脉气象研究中的可信性

由于珠穆朗玛峰- 念青唐古拉山脉极高山区特殊的自然环境, 这一带的气象观测资料极其匮乏。2003 年在青藏高原南部念青唐古拉山脉(30^o24'44.3"N, 90^o34'13.1"E, 5850 m a.s. l.) 建立了自动气象站; 2005 年在珠穆朗玛峰北坡垭口(28^o01'0.95"N, 86^o57'48.4"E, 6523 m a.s.l.) 建立了自动气象站。利用这两自动气象站的观测资料与NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料进行对比, 检验NCEP/NCAR 再分析数据在喜马拉雅山脉-青藏高原南部一带的可行性。研究结果表明, NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料能够较好地反映气压和气温的天气尺度的变化。但是, 再分析的气压和气温值系统性低于相应观测值, 而且, 某种程度上, 低估了实际的变化幅度; 再分析天气事件, 在珠穆朗玛峰地区, 超前于实际观测一日发生, 而在念青唐古拉地区, 基本上是与观测事件同一日发生。由于受相似大气环流的影响, 珠峰和念青两者之间的观测资料、再分析资料都高度相关。     

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.     

1971年以来珠穆朗玛峰地区气候变化

Global climate change has profound influence on natural ecosystem and socioeconomic system and is a focus which governments, scientific societies as well as common people of various countries have paid much attention to. Observations indicate that there i…     

珠穆朗玛峰地区近34年来气候变化

利用珠穆朗玛峰地区中国境内5个气象站1971~2004年月平均气温、月平均最高、最低气温、月降水资料,采用气候线性趋势分析、滑动平均、低通滤波、累积距平等方法对珠峰地区近34年气候变化的时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明：(1) 1971~2004年珠峰地区气温呈现出明显的上升趋势,其中海拔最高的定日站增幅最高,且以冬半年非生长季气温增长更为显著;(2) 近34年珠峰地区的变暖要明显早于中国及全球,且升温幅度更大;(3) 珠峰南、北翼降水变化趋势明显不同,北翼4站降水以增加趋势为主,但是总体显著性水平不高,而珠峰南翼的聂拉木降水以减少趋势为主,从90年代初开始降水以较大幅度减少;(4) 与已有研究结果比较发现：珠峰高海拔地区是中国同期升温最显著的区域。设立在海拔5032 m珠峰大本营的世界上海拔最高的无人值守实时自动气象站将会在全球变化监测中发挥重要的作用。     

湖南省山地旅游气候资源的深度开发利用——以衡山和雪峰山为例

利用衡山高山气象站(1952-1996年)和湖南雪峰山高山气象站(1973-1989年)的气象资料,以衡阳和吉首同期的气象资料作为参照,分析了衡山及雪峰山的山地气候特点,指出(1)湖南的山地(如衡山和雪峰山等)是盛夏休闲避暑的好去处,具有进一步综合开发利用的价值; (2)为了充分利用山地特殊的气象景观资源,应掌握好气象景观(如云雾、日出、雪和雾凇等)出现的最佳时机,加大宣传力度,适时开辟专门的气象景观旅游线路; (3)可以利用山地独特的气候条件如云雾等开发特色旅游产品.     

长春市强冰雪冻害天气系统及物理量特征

应用1971~2000年长春气象站10月至次年3月的逐日降水量、气温资料以及相应的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过对资料的统计分析,给出了确定长春市发生强冰雪冻害天气的标准;根据对36个历史个例的高低空环流形势的分析,建立了4种强冰雪冻害的天气概念模型:冷涡型、深槽型、浅槽型、锋区平直型;进一步分析了长春市冰雪冻害天气的物理量场、要素场的特征。     

穆珠朗玛峰地区土壤中稀土元素的含量和分布

本文论述了珠穆朗玛峯地区土壤中稀土元素的含量,以及它们在土壤中的分布模式,并发现土壤中稀土元素的含量水平在很大程度上受土壤母质的制约。     

Vertical differentiation of land cover in the central Himalayas

Characterized by obvious altitudinal variation, habitat complexity, and diversity in land cover, the Mt. Qomolangma region within the central Himalayas is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change in the world. At the same time, because the Mt. Qomolangma region possesses the most complete natural vertical spectrum in the world, it is also an ideal place to study the vertical structure of alpine land cover. In this study, land cover data for 2010 along with digital elevation model data were used to define three methods for dividing the northern and southern slopes in the Mt. Qomolangma region, i.e., the ridgeline method, the sample transect method, and the sector method. The altitudinal distributions of different land cover types were then investigated for both the northern and southern slopes of the Mt. Qomolangma region by using the above three division methods along with Arc GIS and MATLAB tools. The results indicate that the land cover in the study region was characterized by obviously vertical zonation with the south-six and north-four pattern of vertical spectrum that reflected both the natural vertical structure of vegetation and the effects of human activities. From low to high elevation, the main land cover types were forests, grasslands, sparse vegetation, bare land, and glacier/snow cover. The compositions and distributions of land cover types differed significantly between the northern and southern slopes; the southern slope exhibited more complex land cover distributions with wider elevation ranges than the northern slope. The area proportion of each land cover type also varied with elevation. Accordingly, the vertical distribution patterns of different land cover types on the southern and northern slopes could be divided into four categories, with glaciers/snow cover, sparse vegetation, and grasslands conforming to unimodal distributions. The distribution of bare land followed a unimodal pattern on the southern slope but a bimodal pattern on the northern slope. Finally, the use of different slope division methods produced similar vertical belt structures on the southern slope but different ones on the northern slope. Among the three division methods, the sector method was better to reflect the natural distribution pattern of land cover.     

气候变暖背景下祁连山区春季积雨云变化特征

利用祁连山区及其周边26个气象观测站1961-2005年春季云形状和气温观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、小波分析等方法,分析了祁连山区春季积雨云出现频率的空间分布与时间变化特征,探讨了与气候变暖的关系,并选用同期NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料,对祁连山区春季积雨云的环流特征进行分析。结果表明:① 祁连山区春季积雨云出现频率在20%～24%,为河西走廊和柴达木盆地的3～6倍,山区东、南侧多于西、北侧,与该区大气水汽含量分布呈现相一致。② 近45年来,祁连山区春季平均气温增温0.9 ℃,气温变化经历了低—高—低—高的4个变化阶段,气温变化的倾向率为0.18 ℃/10a。③ 近45年来,祁连山区春季积雨云出现频率与同期气温变化反相,经历了多—少—多—少4个变化阶段,总体呈弱的减少趋势,倾向率为0.2%/10a。④ 在25a时间尺度上,祁连山区春季气温和积雨云出现频率为反相位变化结构为主,表明在长期气候变化上,气温偏低时期对应积雨云出现偏多时期,气温偏高时期对应积雨云出现偏少时期。⑤ 祁连山区春季积雨云偏多与偏少年在欧亚500 hPa环流场上存在明显的差异,积雨云出现频次的多少是对欧亚500 hPa环流异常的响应。     

Climate change on the southern slope of Mt. Qomolangma （Everest） Region in Nepal since 1971

Based on monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009, the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend, Sen＇s Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods. This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The results showed that： （1） between 1971 and 2009, the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃, the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a, and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region. On the other hand, the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature. In 1974 and 1992, the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃. （2） Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009, the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm. In this region, precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27 mm/a, but this was not statistically significant. In addition, the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October, including the entire monsoon period （from June to September） when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total. （3） The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region, whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma. The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region. This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt. Qomolangma in particular.     

北极苔原新奥尔松地区的地表辐射特征

利用我国北极黄河站所在地,德国Koldewey站1993-2003年的资料,对新奥尔松地区的地表辐射特征进行了初步分析。结果表明,由于云的影响,新奥尔松极昼期间的日照百分率仅为32.2%。暖季由于下垫面地表冰雪融化,地表反射率迅速减小,地面吸收辐射和地面有效辐射都迅速增大。全年累计的净辐射为正值;暖季是接受太阳辐射能的主要时段,寒季接受的太阳辐射能极少。虽近10年来新奥尔松地区的气温增加十分显著,但各辐射量的变化趋势不明显。地表辐射实测值与同期NCEP/NCAR相邻格点逐日资料的比较表明,NCEP资料对各辐射项模拟的精度不高。     

2010年冬末春初“回南天”环流背景场特征分析——以惠州市为例

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和MICAPS实况数据,对广东惠州市2010年冬末春初的2次较严重的、持续时间较长的“回南天”天气过程进行总结分析.结果显示:发生“回南天”的前期一般出现较长时间的低温阴雨天气,使得地面及墙面等物体表面温度较低,空气湿度较大; “回南天”期间,500 hPa北支系统偏北,冷空气难以南下,南支波动活跃,华南地区主要处于南支槽前,其前强盛的西南暖湿气流为“回南天”带来了充足的水汽条件,底层地面冷高压北收,西南低槽不断更替发展,华南地区主要处于地面低压槽前侧,且地面风速较小,对流层低层有较强的逆温层存在.     

Tropospheric and stratospheric wind contributions to Earth's variable rotation from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (2000–2005)

The individual tropospheric and stratospheric wind contributions to the Earth's variable rotation during the period 2000–2005 are investigated to further our understanding of the role of wind in exciting polar motion and the variation of the Earth's rotational rate (or the length of day, LOD, change). Instead of the previous empirical approach, which simply assumed the tropopause as an equal-pressure level, the present study employs a tropopause, which is space- and time-dependent and is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses. For the axial component, the tropospheric and stratospheric wind effects are essentially additive. For the equatorial components, however, a significant cancellation is found between the tropospheric and stratospheric wind terms, based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis model.     

夏半年青藏高原“湿池”的水汽分布及水汽输送特征

采用1948-2007年共计60年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料.计算了夏半年(4-9月)青藏高原大气中的可降水量、水汽输送通量和水汽输送通量散度,分析了夏半年青藏高原可降水量的分布和变化特征,青藏高原及其附近的水汽输送.结果表明:在对流层中层的青藏高原上空,夏季是一个明显的大气水汽含量高中心,"湿池"特征非常显著,湿池主要有三个大的可降水量中心,即高原的西南部、东南部和高原南侧.4-9月,高原上的可降水量变化很大,高原的增湿的速度小于减湿的速度.水汽进人高原主要通过三条水汽通道,即西风带水汽输送通道、印度洋-孟别拉湾水汽通道和南海-孟加托湾水汽通道.水汽主要在高原西南侧、喜马拉雅山中段和高原东南侧进入高原.     

Vegetation change in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve from 1981 to 2001

Based on the NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1981 to 2001, the digitalized China Vegetation Map (1:1,000,000), DEM, temperature and precipitation data, and field investiga-tion, the spatial patterns and vertical characteristics of natural vegetation changes and their influencing factors in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve have been studied. The results show that: (1) There is remarkable spatial difference of natural vegetation changes in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve and stability is the most common status. There are 5.04% of the whole area being seriously degraded, 13.19% slightly degraded, 26.39% slightly im-proved, 0.97% significantly improved and 54.41% keeping stable. The seriously and slightly degraded areas, which mostly lie in the south of the reserve, are along the national bounda-ries. The areas of improved vegetation lie in the north of the reserve and the south side of the Yarlung Zangbo River. The stable areas lie between the improved and degraded areas. Degradation decreases with elevation. (2) Degeneration in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Re-serve mostly affects shrubs, needle-leaved forests and mixed forests. (3) The temperature change affects the natural vegetation changes spatially while the integration of temperature changes, slopes and aspects affects the natural vegetation change along the altitude gradi-ents. (4) It is the overuse of resources that leads to the vegetation degeneration in some parts of the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve.     

近30年珠穆朗玛峰国家自然保护区冰川变化的遥感监测

利用1976、1988和2006年的3期陆地卫星遥感数据,采用面向对象的解译方法并结合专家知识分类规则自动提取珠穆朗玛峰国家自然保护区(以下简称珠峰保护区)3个时期的冰川信息,并利用遥感、地理信息系统和图谱的方法对冰川时空分布特征和变化及其原因与不确定性进行了分析。结果如下:(1)2006年珠峰保护区内冰川面积为2710.17±0.011km²,为研究区总面积的7.41%,主要分布在研究区南部海拔4700～6800m的高山区;(2)1976-2006年,珠峰保护区冰川持续退缩明显,总面积减少501.91±0.035km²,冰湖扩张迅速(净增加36.88±0.035km²);研究区南坡子流域冰川退缩率(16.79%)高于北坡子流域(14.40%);珠峰保护区冰川以退缩为主,退缩冰川主要分布于海拔4700～6400m,退缩区上限海拔为6600～6700m;(3)1976年以来,气温显著上升和降水减少是冰川退缩的关键因素。     

1981-2001年珠穆朗玛峰自然保护区植被变化

Based on the NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1981 to 2001, the digitalized China Vegetation Map （1：1,000,000）, DEM, temperature and precipitation data, and field investigation, the spatial patterns and vertical characteristics of natural vegetation changes and their influencing factors in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve have been studied. The results show that： （1） There is remarkable spatial difference of natural vegetation changes in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve and stability is the most common status. There are 5.04% of the whole area being seriously degraded, 13.19% slightly degraded, 26.39% slightly improved, 0.97% significantly improved and 54.41% keeping stable. The seriously and slightly degraded areas, which mostly lie in the south of the reserve, are along the national boundaries. The areas of improved vegetation lie in the north of the reserve and the south side of the Yarlung Zangbo River. The stable areas lie between the improved and degraded areas. Degradation decreases with elevation. （2） Degeneration in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve mostly affects shrubs, needle-leaved forests and mixed forests. （3） The temperature change affects the natural vegetation changes spatially while the integration of temperature changes, slopes and aspects affects the natural vegetation change along the altitude gradients. （4） It is the overuse of resources that leads to the vegetation degeneration in some parts of the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve.     

Relationship analysis between September precipitation in western China and 700 hPa wind field in East Asia

The regional wind index influencing September precipitation in western China has been defined using the 700 hPa u and v components of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data of 1961 to 2006. There are three regional wind field indices: southwest, southeast, and north, and these indices reflect the change of East Asian monsoon. The relationship between the indices was studied, and results show that they not only have a close relationship, but also have independence. Moreover, there is an obvious relationship between the wind indices and the autumn in particular the September precipitation in western China. The effect of wind indices on rain occurrence is most different: the influenced area of the southwest wind index is larger than that of the southeast wind index, and the southwest wind index is a controlling factor on autumn precipitation in western China. The weakening of southwest wind is the main cause resulting in reduction of autumn precipitation on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau.     

珠穆朗玛峰地区雪冰中重金属浓度与季节变化

The concentrations of heavy metals Ba, Pb, Cu, Zn and Co in snow pit collected in September, 2005 from the accumulation area of the East Rongbuk Glacier (6523 m a.s.l.), which lies on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma, were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Concentrations (pg/ml) of heavy metals are Ba2-227, Co2.8-15.7, Cu10-120, Zn29-4948 and Pb14-142, respectively. The δ¹⁸O was determined by MAT-252. The time period of the snow pit spans from autumn 2005 to summer 2004. Seasonal variations of the concentrations and δ¹⁸O are observed, of which Pb, Cu, Zn and Co are much lower in summer monsoon season than that in non summer monsoon season, suggesting that different sources of heavy metals contributed to the site. EF_c (crustal enrichment factors) is Co3.6, Cu27, Pb33 and Zn180, respectively. Higher EF_c values of Pb, Cu and Zn suggest that Pb, Cu especially Zn are mainly contributed by anthropogenic sources. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40501014; No.40871058 Author: Duan Jianping (1981–), Ph.D. Candidate, specialized in climate and environmental change.