Screening for Heat Transport by Groundwater in Closed Geothermal Systems

Heat transfer due to groundwater flow can significantly affect closed geothermal systems. Here, a screening method is developed, based on Peclet numbers for these systems and Darcy's law. Conduction‐only conditions should not be expected where specific discharges exceed 10^?8 m/s. Constraints on hydraulic gradients allow for preliminary screening for advection based on rock or soil types. Identification of materials with very low hydraulic conductivity, such as shale and intact igneous and metamorphic rock, allow for analysis with considering conduction only. Variability in known hydraulic conductivity allows for the possibility of advection in most other rocks and soil types. Further screening relies on refinement of estimates of hydraulic gradients and hydraulic conductivity through site investigations and modeling until the presence or absence of conduction can be confirmed.     

Evaluating MT3DMS for Heat Transport Simulation of Closed Geothermal Systems

Owing to the mathematical similarities between heat and mass transport, the multi-species transport model MT3DMS should be able to simulate heat transport if the effects of buoyancy and changes in viscosity are small. Although in several studies solute models have been successfully applied to simulate heat transport, these studies failed to provide any rigorous test of this approach. In the current study, we carefully evaluate simulations of a single borehole ground source heat pump (GSHP) system in three scenarios: a pure conduction situation, an intermediate case, and a convection-dominated case. Two evaluation approaches are employed: first, MT3DMS heat transport results are compared with analytical solutions. Second, simulations by MT3DMS, which is finite difference, are compared with those by the finite element code FEFLOW and the finite difference code SEAWAT. Both FEFLOW and SEAWAT are designed to simulate heat flow. For each comparison, the computed results are examined based on residual errors. MT3DMS and the analytical solutions compare satisfactorily. MT3DMS and SEAWAT results show very good agreement for all cases. MT3DMS and FEFLOW two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) results show good to very good agreement, except that in 3D there is somewhat deteriorated agreement close to the heat source where the difference in numerical methods is thought to influence the solution. The results suggest that MT3DMS can be successfully applied to simulate GSHP systems, and likely other systems with similar temperature ranges and gradients in saturated porous media.     

Using Automated, High-precision Repicking to Improve Delineation of Microseismic Structures at the Soultz Geothermal Reservoir

—?An automatic, adaptive, correlation-based algorithm for adjusting phase picks in large digital seismic data sets provides significant improvement in resolution of microseismic structures using only a small fraction of the time and manpower which would be required to re-analyze waveforms manually or semi-automatically. We apply this technique to induced seismicity at the Soultz-sous-Forêts geothermal site, France. The method is first applied to a small, previously manually repicked subset of the catalogue so that we may compare our results to those obtained from painstaking, visual, cross-correlation-based techniques. Relative centroid-adjusted hypocenters show a decrease in median mislocation from 31 to 7?m for preliminary and automatically adjusted picks, respectively, compared to the manual results. Narrow, intersecting joint features not observed in the preliminary hypocenter cloud, but revealed through manual repicking, are also recovered using the automatic method. We then address a larger catalogue of ～7000 microearthquakes. After relocating the events using automatic repicks, the percentage of events clustering within 5?m of their nearest neighbor increases form 5 to 26% of the catalogue. Hypocenter relocations delineate narrow, linear features previously obscured within the seismic cloud, interpreted as faults or fractures which may correspond to fluid propagation paths, or to changes in stress as a result of elevated pore pressures. RMS travel-time residuals for the larger data set are reduced by only 0.2%; however, phase-pick biases in the preliminary catalogue have influenced both the velocity model and station correction calculations, which will affect location residuals. These pick biases are apparent on the adjusted, stacked waveforms and correcting them will be important prior to future velocity model refinements.     

Use of Sonication for Enhanced Sampling of Attached Microbes from Groundwater Systems

The vast majority of microorganisms in aquifers live as biofilms on sediment surfaces, which presents significant challenges for sampling as only the suspended microbes will be sampled through normal pumping. The use of a down-well low frequency sonicator has been suggested as a method of detaching microbes from the biofilm and allowing rapid sampling of this community. We developed a portable, easy to use, low-frequency electric sonicator and evaluated its performance for a range of well depths (tested up to 42 m below ground level) and casing types. Three sonicators were characterized in laboratory experiments using a 1 m long tank filled with pea gravel. These included a commercially available pneumatic sonicator, a rotating flexible shaft sonicator, and the prototype electric sonicator. The electric sonicator detached between 56 and 74% of microbes grown on gravel-containing biobags at distances ranging between 2 and 50 cm from the sonicator. The field testing comprises of a total of 55 sampling events from 48 wells located in 4 regions throughout New Zealand. Pre- and post-sonication samples showed an average 33 times increase in bacterial counts. Microbial sequence data showed that the same classes are present in pre- and post-sonicated samples and only slight differences were seen in the proportions present. The sampling process was rapid and the significant increases in bacterial counts mean that microbial samples can be quickly obtained from wells, which permits more detailed analysis than previously possible.     

Using a Simple Soil Column Method to Evaluate Soil Phosphorus Leaching Risk

The impacts of soil P leaching on water eutrophication have widely been concerned. However, there is no dependable method to quantitatively estimate the P leaching risk of soils. In this study, a simple soil column method was developed using two calcareous Fluvisols, silt loam and loam. The soil column was 20 cm in length and 5 cm in diameter, and distilled water was continuously supplied from the top. The volume and dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentrations of leachate were measured. Results showed that DRP concentrations in leachate increased slowly for the low soil Olsen‐P levels but rapidly for the high Olsen‐P levels. According to these two‐phase changes in the DRP versus soil Olsen‐P contents, the thresholds of P leaching risk were estimated to be 41.1 and 62.3 mg P kg^?1 (Olsen‐P) for silt loam and loam, respectively. The P leaching intensity of soils increased by 3‐ to 540‐fold if the soil Olsen‐P contents accumulated from 6.6 to 155.5 mg P kg^?1. The outcomes derived from this study regarding the determination of P leaching threshold and intensity by the soil column method also need a further verification on more soils with a wide range of physical and chemical properties.     

Strategies for Transforming Fine Scale Knowledge to Management Usability

Simulation tools used for management purposes should fulfill several conditions by being computationally fast, user-friendly, realistic, generic and reliable. These traits are often counteracting since they simultaneously demand for model complexity as well as simplicity. Here we develop a strategy to overcome this general problem of environmental modelling for management use. Major ingredients are model analysis and reduction as new core components of the modelling process. In detail, a set of combined methods is proposed. Within a large class of models the set allows for automatically exploring model behaviour and for aggregating fine scale process knowledge together with spatio temporal resolution. Applications to a huge aquatic European regional seas ecosystem model (ERSEM), a complex photosynthesis model (PGEN) as well as a simple diagenetic model are presented. The analysis and aggregation methods provide first steps towards a new generation of decision support tools able to cope with an increase in scientific knowledge as well as management demands.     

Sampling Strategies for Estimation of Parameters Related to Ground Water Quality

Multiple theoretical sampling designs are studied to determine whether sampling designs can be identified that will provide for characterization of ground water quality in rural regions of developing nations. Sampling design in this work includes assessing sampling frequency, analytical methods, length of sampling period, and requirements of sampling personnel. The results answer a set of questions regarding whether using innovative sampling designs can allow hydrogeologists to take advantage of a range of characterization technologies, sampling strategies, and available personnel to develop high-value, water-quality data sets. Monte Carlo studies are used to assess different sampling strategies in the estimation of three parameters related to a hypothetical chemical observed in a ground water well: mean concentration (MeanC), maximum concentration (MaxC), and total mass load (TML). Five different scenarios are simulated. These scenarios are then subsampled using multiple simulated sampling instruments, time periods (ranging from 1 to 10 years), and sampling frequencies (ranging from weekly to semiannually to parameter dependent). Results are analyzed via the statistics of the resulting estimates, including mean square error, bias, bias squared, and precision. Results suggest that developing a sampling strategy based on what may be considered lower quality instruments can represent a powerful field research approach for estimating select parameters when applied at high frequency. This result suggests the potential utility of using a combination of lower quality instrument and local populations to obtain high frequency data sets in regions where regular monitoring by technicians is not practical.     

Risk analysis for clustered check dams due to heavy rainfall

Check dams are commonly constructed around the world for alleviating soil erosion and preventing sedimentation of downstream rivers and reservoirs.Check dams are more vulnerable to failure due to their less stringent flood control standards compared to other dams.Determining the critical precipitation that will result in overtopping of a dam is a useful approach to assessing the risk of failure on a probabilistic basis and for providing early warning in case of an emergency.However,many check dams are built in groups,spreading in several tributaries in cascade forms,comprising a complex network.Determining the critical precipitation for dam overtopping requires a knowledge of its upstream dams on whether they survived or were overtopped during the same storm,while these upstream dams in turn need the information for their upstream dams.The current paper presents an approach of decomposing the dam cluster into(1)the heading dam,(2)border dams,and(3)intermediate dams.The algorithm begins with the border dams that have no upstream dams and proceeds with upgraded maps without the previous border dams until all the dams have been checked.It is believed that this approach is applicable for small-scale check dam systems where the time lag of flood routing can be neglected.As a pilot study,the current paper presents the analytical results for the Wangmaogou Check Dam System that has 22 dams connected in series and parallel.The algorithm clearly identified 7 surviving dams,with the remaining ones being overtopped for a storm of 179.6 mm in 12 h,which is associated with a return period of one in 200 years.     

Spherical Elementary Current Systems Method Applied to Geomagnetic Field Modeling for the Adriatic

The aim of this work was to derive an accurate regional model of geomagnetic components on the Adriatic. Data of north, east and vertical geomagnetic components at repeat stations and ground survey sites enclosing the Adriatic Sea were used to obtain a geomagnetic model at 2010.5 epoch. The core field was estimated by use of the global Enhanced Magnetic Model, while the crustal field by a mathematical technique for expanding vector systems on a sphere into basis functions, known as spherical elementary current systems method. The results of this method were presented and compared to the crustal field estimations by the Enhanced Magnetic Model. The maps of isolines of the regional model are also presented.     

Environmental corrections to gamma-ray log data: Strategies for geophysical logging with geological and technical drilling

Correction concepts for the elimination of environmental influences on gamma-ray logs have been published in a number of articles and in guidelines by service companies. However, these widely-used processing rules for open- and cased-hole measurement conditions have been presented in different forms using different assumptions. For a detailed comparison, these concepts were reduced to simple analytical formula with the application of the same units and scaling to common, standardised conditions. For geological and technical drilling, environmental influences like borehole geometry, casing configuration and material, as well as mud density have turned out to represent the most important effects for a characterisation of environmental conditions. Typical case histories show that correction processing may lead to differing results, depending on the chosen presumptions. A thorough analysis of different types of influences and a careful choice of adequate correction procedures substantially improve the quality of gamma-ray log data. Further implications of these analytical correction rules permit also the quantitative interpretation of logs in dry cased-hole intervals and with the presence of tool joints or casing collars. The latter effect is widely underrated but is proven here to be a necessary step in precise gamma-ray log processing.     

Risk measures for events with a stochastic duration: an application to drought analysis

Droughts, as many climatic and environmental phenomena, are events with a random duration. In the monitoring and risk management of this type of phenomena, it is important the development of measures of the risk that an ongoing event ends. This work develops a risk measure conditional on the current state of the event, that can be easily updated in real time. The measure is based on the hazard function of the duration of an event, that is modeled as a parametric function of covariates describing the current state of the process. The use of (time-dependent) internal covariates is often required to describe that state, and maximum likelihood methods cannot be used to estimate the model. Therefore, an approach based on partial likelihood functions that permit the inclusion of both external and internal covariates is suggested. This approach is very general but it has the drawback of requiring some programming to be implemented. However, it is proved that for durations with a geometric distribution, an equivalent and easily implemented approach based on generalized linear models can be used to estimate the hazard function. This methodology is applied to develop a risk measure in drought analysis. The approach is exemplified using the drought series from a Spanish location (Huesca) and internal covariates derived from the rainfall series. The whole modeling process is thoroughly described, including the covariate selection procedure and some new validation tools.     

A New Method for Estimating Recharge to Unconfined Aquifers Using Differential River Gauging

In semiarid and arid environments, leakage from rivers is a major source of recharge to underlying unconfined aquifers. Differential river gauging is widely used to estimate the recharge. However, the methods commonly applied are limited in that the temporal resolution is event‐scale or longer. In this paper, a novel method is presented for quantifying both the total recharge volume for an event, and variation in recharge rate during an event from hydrographs recorded at the upstream and downstream ends of a river reach. The proposed method is applied to river hydrographs to illustrate the method steps and investigate recharge processes occurring in a sub‐catchment of the Murray Darling Basin (Australia). Interestingly, although it is the large flood events which are commonly assumed to be the main source of recharge to an aquifer, our analysis revealed that the smaller flow events were more important in providing recharge.     

Using maximum likelihood to derive various distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic modeling assessment

Currently used goodness-of-fit (GOF) indicators (i.e. efficiency criteria) are largely empirical and different GOF indicators emphasize different aspects of model performance; a thorough assessment of model skill may require the use of robust skill matrices. In this study, based on the maximum likelihood method, a statistical measure termed BC-GED error model is proposed, which firstly uses the Box–Cox (BC) transformation method to remove the heteroscedasticity of model residuals, and then employs the generalized error distribution (GED) with zero-mean to fit the distribution of model residuals after BC transformation. Various distance-based GOF indicators can be explicitly expressed by the BC-GED error model for different values of the BC transformation parameter λ and GED kurtosis coefficient β. Our study proves that (1) the shape of error distribution implied in the GOF indicators affects the model performance on high or low flow discharges because large error-power (β) value can cause low probability of large residuals and small β value will lead to high probability of zero value; (2) the mean absolute error could balance consideration of low and high flow value as its assumed error distribution (i.e. Laplace distribution, where β = 1) is the turning point of GED derivative at zero value. The results of a study performed in the Baocun watershed via comparison of the SWAT model-calibration results using six distance-based GOF indicators show that even though the formal BC-GED is theoretically reasonable, the calibrated model parameters do not always correspond to high performance of model-simulation results because of imperfection of the hydrologic model. However, the derived distance-based GOF indicators using the maximum likelihood method offer an easy way of choosing GOF indicators for different study purposes and developing multi-objective calibration strategies.