A landslide dam breach induced debris flow – a case study on downstream hazard areas delineation

A catastrophic landslide dam breach induced debris flow initiated in Da-Cu-Keng stream, Ruifang town, when typhoon Xangsane hit Taiwan on November 1, 2000. Different available methodologies were used to model the natural dam breach induced debris flow and using field topography the hazard zones affected by debris mixtures were delineated. The numerical finite element or finite difference method is time consuming for the simulation of debris flow inundation areas and hence a rules-based GIS (Geographic Information System) analysis is proposed in this study. The model emphasizes the downstream inundated fan-shaped areas covered by debris mixtures through the overflow point. Topography and gradient are assumed to dominate the debris masses deposition mechanism in the GIS analysis. The approach considers the parameters effects, such as the runout distance, the debris masses magnitude and the inundated areas. The results of this study reveal that the GIS process using the rule-based approach speeds up the processing of delineating the hazard zones and assessment, which can be applied to early-warning and preliminary inundation hazardous mapping.     

基于GIS泥石流二维数值模拟

为了模拟泥石流的运动规律,预测降雨诱发的泥石流到达距离和泛滥范围,减少和避免泥石流引起的灾害,给出了一个模拟泥石流运动的二维数值模型。由于GIS中的栅格网络数据可以直接作为有限差分的网格,二维数值模型可用有限差分来求解。模型应用于2003年7月20日发生在日本九州南部熊本县水俣市宝川区集村的泥石流。模拟再现了这个真实泥石流的传播和泛滥的过程,并与实际检测结果很吻合,验证了这个深度积分的二维数值模型的有效性和实用性。模型可用于预测泥石流的流动距离和泛滥范围,以及泛滥范围内的危险房屋和路段,也可以用于泥石流灾害的风险性分析。     

Crowdsourcing photograph locations for debris flow hot spot mapping

This study shows the feasibility of obtaining hazardous hot spot information on landslide and debris flow from crowdsourced data. Historical hazard or disaster photographs were voluntarily uploaded by the public to a Web photograph album. A total of 2245 hazard photographs from 1973 to 2015 were crowdsourced, and each photograph was tagged with geographical coordinates. After the removal of outliers, 96% of the photograph points were found within the 4 km potential debris flow buffer of existing databases, and none was found along the steep slopes with a mean of 14°. The photograph hot spot analysis using local Moran’s I or G _i * was identified statistically significant without subjective judgment. The DBSCAN model was also used to detect hot spot clusters effectively. The model parameters were nearly automatically generated on the basis of the count plot and the nearest neighbor distance graph. The results of these approaches were generally consistent with the hazardous hot spot maps and strongly related to central and southern Taiwan from the crowdsourced photograph data. Results reveal that the hot spot areas are found in areas with faults and near the potentially weak and fractured rocky regions. The majority of the landslides occur near the fault line because the strong ground motions triggered by an earthquake propagated along the fault rupture plane. Hot spot mapping using crowdsourced data can be used to estimate where debris flow will frequently occur and show how large the debris flow will be. Potentially hazardous areas can be effectively determined by the hot spot analysis of crowdsourced data.     

A numerical simulation of debris flow and its application

Debris flow is the flow of solid-fluid mixture and was treated as the flow of a continuum in routing in this study. A mathematical model was proposed to describe debris flow including deposition process and then solved numerically with suitable boundary conditions. Laboratory experiments were also conducted for comparison and calibration of the numerical results as well as for investigation of debris flow phenomena. The numerical model was also applied to simulate the debris flow caused by heavy rainfall in Tungman village of Hualien County located in the east of Taiwan on 23 June 1990. The simulated bed topographies in alluvial fan were in good agreement with those obtained from laboratory experiments and field observations.     

泥石流的二维数学模型

泥石流是在重力作用下,由砂粒石块和水等组成的固液混合物,是一种发生于山区的复杂的地质灾害现象。泥石流主要是由暴雨诱发引起的,它沿着复杂的三维地形高速流动,具有流体流动的特性。为了模拟泥石流的运动规律,预测降雨诱发的泥石流的到达距离和泛滥范围,减少和避免泥石流引起的灾害,把泥石和雨水组成的固液混合物假定为遵循均匀、连续、不可压缩的、非定常的牛顿流体运动规律。基于质量守恒方程和Naiver-stokes方程,采用深度积分方法,推导出了一个模拟泥石流运动的二维数学模型。所有方程式可用有限差分法来求解。结合GIS,该模型可用于预测泥石流的流动距离和泛滥范围,以及泛滥范围内的危险房屋和路段,也可以用于泥石流灾害的风险性分析。     

汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究

汶川地震发生后,灾区暴雨泥石流活动进入一个新的活跃期。根据对北川震区2008年9月24日暴雨泥石流调查,泥石流流域中地震诱发大量滑坡导致松散物源巨大,泥石流过程的洪峰流量比通常的要大数倍,应用以往泥石流危险范围预测模型进行计算的结果与实际的误差较大。因此,需要建立适用于强震区的泥石流危险范围预测方法。本文以9.24北川暴雨泥石流为典型实例,结合野外调查,利用震后高分辨航空图像和9.24暴雨后SPOT5图像分别提取泥石流发生前流域中滑坡物源储量及发生后形成的堆积扇特征数据,应用多元回归方法建立了汶川震区泥石流危险范围预测模型,该方法可用于估算泥石流最大堆积距离和堆积宽度。验证和应用结果表明:该模型适用于强震区泥石流危险范围的预测,模型方法可为震区重建中安全地段选择和未来地震区风险管理提供重要依据。     

城市泥石流风险评价探讨

探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。     

Effects of strong ground motion on the susceptibility of gully type debris flows

Typhoon Herb in 1996 caused widespread debris flows in central Taiwan. The 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake on September 21, 1999, which also took place in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in the region. These landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This research selects three regions which suffered a ground motion class of 5, 6, and 7 on the Richter scale during the Chi-Chi earthquake as study areas. Air photos from 1997 and 2001 of these regions are used to map the gully-type debris flows that took place after Typhoons Herb and Toraji, respectively. The gullies adjacent to the debris flow, but without a trace of debris flows, are also mapped as the non-debris flow data. The topography, hydrogeology, and rainfall factors – where debris flow occurred and in which there was no occurrence of debris flows in these gullies were retrieved from DTM, geological maps, and iso-countour maps, and of rainfall through GIS processing. These characteristic are introduced into a probabilistic neural network to build a predicting model for the probability of the occurrence of debris flows. Three series of cross analyses are conducted to compare the probability of the occurrence of debris flows of the same dataset predicted by different prediction models. The results reveal that the susceptibility of debris flows was elevated after the Chi-Chi earthquake struck. The upsurge of susceptibility was more obvious for the regions that received a higher class of ground motion.     

雅鲁藏布江米林段泥石流堆积扇危险范围预测模型

雅鲁藏布江米林段紧邻印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞带,地势复杂,构造运动强烈,地震活动频繁,因此泥石流分布广泛。本文经过遥感与野外实际调查,以研究区的34条泥石流沟为样本进行分析,利用GIS与RS软件对研究区内的泥石流流域高差、物源量等基本参数进行数据采集与分析,确定相关因子后,利用Mat lab软件进行泥石流最大冲出长度、最大冲出宽度与其相关因子的回归分析,发现泥石流最大冲出长度、最大冲出宽度与流域高差、物源量之间具有明显的指数相关的关系,从而建立泥石流危险范围的预测模型。该模型在吸纳前人模型的基础上,采用较少的因子就能够判别研究区泥石流的危险性范围,缩短了判断泥石流危险性范围的时间,更加有利于快速防灾避险。     

Debris flows in the Swiss National Park: the influence of different flow models and varying DEM grid size on modeling results

In the Swiss National Park, debris flows are a frequent phenomenon and have repeatedly affected highways and hiking structures. In this study, we first investigated the main characteristics and dimensions of current debris flows by field work and empirical parameterization schemes. Additionally, we evaluated a topography-based flow-trajectory geographic information system model (MSF) and a flow-routing model (FLO-2D) in terms of debris flow-affected areas. Three generically different digital elevation models (DEM) with grid spacing of 25, 4, and 1 m were used in conjunction with the flow models. The evaluation of the DEM grid spacing shows that for both flow models the 25-m DEM can give an approximate estimation of the potential hazard zone. Four- and one-meter DEMs mostly confine the simulated debris flow to existing channels and are in accordance with observations of recent debris-flow events. The study shows that DEM quality and grid resolution are crucial for the resulting delineation of potentially affected areas and thus for hazard assessment and mapping.     

Assessing debris-flow hazard in a watershed in Taiwan

This paper presents the results of a pilot study for assessing debris-flow hazards using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River is investigated in this pilot study. Factors that are believed to be critical to the occurrence of debris flow are identified and considered in the assessment of debris-flow hazards. Using the spatial analysis feature of GIS, the impact of these factors, expressed in terms of debris-flow hazard (DH) index, is calculated. By taking a simple summation of all DH indexes according to each factor, the overall debris-flow hazard at a particular watershed may be assessed. The applicability of the proposed approach for analyzing the watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River has been confirmed with the field observations in a recent typhoon event.     

基于FLO-2D的矿山泥石流运动特征及危险性评价——以甘肃省岷县簸箕沟矿山泥石流为例

岷县簸箕沟金矿因人类开采活动引发了矿山泥石流灾害.采用FLO-2D软件模拟分析了降雨强度重现期50 a及100 a条件下的簸箕沟泥石流运动特征,进行危险性评价和分区,并结合实际发生情况做了精度验证.结果表明：簸箕沟泥石流的堆积扇范围、堆积深度以及平均流速等运动特征参数随着降雨重现周期的变长而增大,堆积扇中部的堆积深度及流速明显大于两翼及前端.泥石流的危险区集中分布于泥石流沟道以及沟口一定范围内.随着降雨重现周期的变长,高危险区面积比例由48%升高至54.0%.通过精度验证得出模拟结果与实际情况基本相符,可信度较高.     

Anomalous Alpine fans: from the genesis to the present hazard

The present paper aims at characterising Alpine anomalous basin-fan systems, in order to develop a method for hazard assessment for such fans. The review of previous studies revealed that anomalous basin-fan systems are often associated with deep-seated slope failure and present-day hazard is associated to debris flow occurrence. Taking into account these peculiarities, a modelling approach to assess the present day hazard in anomalous fans has been developed and applied to the Sernio fan (Valtellina, northern Italy). Debris flow inundation areas have been simulated by means of a numerical model (RApid Mass MovementS (RAMMS) debris flow), which includes a routine for the sediment entrainment. The range of the model parameters was defined based on previous studies, enabling a sensitivity analysis on the debris flow runout, as well as the flow height and velocity. Numerical results point out the paramount importance of entrainment phenomena on debris flow dynamic in anomalous systems, especially with reference to the bulking factor and debris yield rate that reach very high values, typical of basins with unlimited solid supply.     

Debris-flow simulations on Cheekye River, British Columbia

Cheekye River fan is the best-studied fan complex in Canada. The desire to develop portions of the fan with urban housing triggered a series of studies to estimate debris-flow risk to future residents. A recent study (Jakob and Friele 2010) provided debris-flow frequency-volume and frequency-discharge data, spanning 20-year to 10,000-year return periods that form the basis for modeling of debris flows on Cheekye River. The numerical computer model FLO-2D was chosen as a modelling tool to predict likely flow paths and to estimate debris-flow intensities for a spectrum of debris-flow return periods. The model is calibrated with the so-called Garbage Dump debris flow that occurred some 900  years ago. Field evidence suggests that the Garbage Dump debris flow has a viscous flow phase that deposited a steep-sided debris plug high in organics in centre fan, which then deflected a low-viscosity afterflow that travelled to Squamish River with slowly diminishing flow depths. The realization of a two-phase flow led to a modelling approach in which the debris-flow hydrograph was split into a high viscosity and low viscosity phase that were modelled in chronologic sequence as two separate and independent modelling runs. A perfect simulation of the Garbage Dump debris flow with modelling is not possible because the exact topography at the time of the event is, to some degree, speculative. However, runout distance, debris deposition and deposit thickness are well known and serve as a good basis for calibration. Predictive analyses using the calibrated model parameters suggest that, under existing conditions, debris flows exceeding a 50-year return period are likely to avulse onto the southern fan sector, thereby damaging existing development and infrastructure. Debris flows of several thousand years return period would inundate large portions of the fan, sever Highway 99, CN Rail, and the Squamish Valley road and would impact existing housing development on the fan. These observations suggest a need for debris-flow mitigation for existing and future development alike.     

GIS-based hazard mapping and zonation of debris flows in Xiaojiang Basin,southwestern China

Debris flow sites were identified at 140 locations in the Xiaojiang Basin in Yunnan province, southwestern China. Their spatial distribution and catchment characteristics are described in detail on the basis of previous research, air photo interpretation, field investigation and mapping using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Using a statistical approach, a quantitative model of hazards assessment and zonation was developed through synthesis analysis of basin areas, gradients, and the relative reliefs of these debris flow sites. In terms of debris flow hazard assessment, areas within the Xiaojiang Basin can be classified as severe, heavy and light hazard regions.     

Debris-flow risk analysis in south Gargano watersheds (Southern-Italy)

This article describes a methodology to analyse debris-flow risk in the torrential watersheds of the southern hillside of Gargano (Puglia—Italy). The approach integrates a stability model that identifies the areas of potential shallow landslides in different meteorological conditions with a two-dimensional flood routing model that allows hazard mapping and GIS interface. The results were combined with a susceptibility map that was defined by analyzing the vulnerability conditions and the exposure of the alluvial fan. The models were calibrated on the 1972, July catastrophic event for which the distribution of rainstorm intensity was available. The geo-mechanical properties of the debris were studied by field surveys and laboratory tests while the sediment source areas and the shape of the alluvial cone were obtained using photo-aerial interpretation. The risk conditions of the areas under consideration were also investigated in order to plan and guide measures aimed at limiting the damage such hazards may cause.     

Hazard assessment model for debris flow prediction

Debris flow disasters have plagued Taiwan in recent decades, and caused casualties and destruction of property. Several methods, including the numerical method, statistical method, and experimental method, have been adopted in recent years to predict debris flow, and more recently, the neural network (NN) and the genetic algorithm (GA) methods have been introduced to simulate the occurrence of debris flows. This study proposes using the GA to weigh seven important variables according to principles similar to natural selection. The study then simultaneously inputs these variables into a NN model to predict debris flow occurrences based on relevant factors. There were 154 potential cases of debris flow collected from eastern Taiwan and fed into the model for testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reached 94.94%, which demonstrates that the proposed model can provide stable and reliable results for predicting debris flow in hazard mitigation and guard systems.     

基于数值模拟的群发性泥石流危险性评价

岷县是甘肃南部泥石流频发地区。岷县泥石流多分布于洮河干支流两岸,为群发性泥石流。为了研究群发性泥石流的运动及堆积特征,选取了甘肃岷县麻路河流域为研究区域,以流域内2012年“5·10”暴发泥石流造成重大损失的6条泥石流沟作为整体研究对象,并考虑主河对泥石流堆积物的冲刷携带,运用FLO-2D模拟降雨前主河流动情况及不同降雨频率条件下主河及泥石流的流动情况。根据野外调查结果对比2%降雨频率条件下泥石流模拟结果,验证模型的可靠性。基于模拟结果用ArcGIS进行危险性评价,识别流域内高危险泥石流沟并划定高危险居民区,统计受冲击范围,为泥石流防治和预警工作提供科学依据。     

基于小流域的地震扰动区降雨型滑坡泥石流危险性评价方法

地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。     

A size classification for debris flows

A 10-fold classification for debris flow size is proposed based on total volume, peak discharge and area inundated by debris. Size classes can be used for regional overview studies where detailed site investigations are either unnecessary, too costly or where the highest hazard and risk creeks need to be identified for further study. They are also useful to compare the regional impact between affected areas and the effects of rainstorms, and they allow lay-people to obtain an understanding of debris flow magnitude and consequences. Finally, different size classes allow the estimation of travel times to points of interest based on empirically derived equations. It is proposed that agencies concerned with debris flows should establish a documentation of debris flow size according to this classification, which serves as a data base for hazard and risk planning.