基于长短记忆模型的鄱阳湖流域径流模拟及其演变的归因分析

气候变化和人类活动直接或间接的影响着全球和区域水文循环过程,是导致水文水资源时空分布的主要因素,同时也是流域-湖泊水文情势变化的根本原因.本文基于长短记忆模型构建了鄱阳湖气象-径流模型,同时引入了基准期的概念,定量区分了导致鄱阳湖流域径流变化的主要影响因素.研究结果表明:在同时考虑计算效率和模拟效果的前提下,采用10 d预测窗口大小来构建鄱阳湖气象-径流模型能够很好地捕捉径流的极值,并且对径流的短期波动也能有很好的体现.训练期模型在各个子流域的纳什效率系数均高于0.94,而在验证期,模型在各个子流域的纳什效率系数均高于0.90.基于径流模拟结果,定量区分了人类活动和气候变化对鄱阳湖径流的影响,研究结果显示:人类活动对径流的影响主要发生在春、秋季,其中,人类活动在春季主要会造成径流的增加,平均增加幅度约为139.47 m³/s,而在秋、冬季,人类活动则会导致径流平均减少约34.37 m³/s.对比二者的相对贡献率,可以发现,春季人类活动对径流造成的影响较大,平均相对贡献率为77.26%.而在其余季节,鄱阳湖流域径流过程的改变主要是由于气候变化,平均相对贡献率约75.84%.研究结果能够为鄱阳湖流域水资源管理提供科学依据和理论指导.     

Abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load in the lower reaches of the Yellow River,China

Determining abrupt changes in runoff and sediment load may not only enhance identification of the principal driving factors for such changes but also help establish effective countermeasures for serious water deficit by managers in the Yellow River basin. We used the Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine trends and abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load during the period between 1950 and 2005, based on monthly hydrological data. Results show that runoff and sediment load decreased from 1950 to 2005, on annual or monthly time scales. Their changes are divided into three stages: fluctuating stage (1950–1970), slowly decreasing stage (1970–1980) and accelerated decreasing stage (1980–2005). The relationship between runoff and sediment load was most significant, and it can be expressed as a linear regression function. Precipitation was one of the most important climate factors affecting runoff before 1985, and the impact of human activities on runoff decrease grew strongly after 1985. Water balance analysis of the Yellow River basin indicates that natural climate change contributed about 55.3% and human activities about 44.7% to the runoff decrease after 1986.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Abstract

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and plays a major role in flood mitigation, restoration and conservation of the ecological environment in the middle Yangtze River basin. Sediment load and streamflow variations in Poyang Lake basin are important for the scouring and deposition changes of this lake. However, these hydrological processes are heavily influenced by human activities, such as construction of water reservoirs, and land-use/land cover changes. By thorough analysis of long series of sediment and streamflow obtained from five major hydrological stations, we systematically investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological processes and the hydrological responses to human activities using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the double cumulative mass curve and the linear regression method. The results show: (1) no significant change in streamflow followed by an increasing tendency after the 1990s that turns to be decreasing about 2000; and (2) a sharp increase of sediment load during the late 1960s and 1970s triggered by extensive deforestation (during the “Cultural Revolution” in China) followed by a tendency to decrease after the early 1980s. Construction of water reservoirs has greatly reduced the sediment load of the Poyang Lake basin, and this is particularly the case in the Ganjiang River, where the sediment load changes may be attributed to the trapping effects of the Wan'an Reservoir, the largest water reservoir within the Poyang Lake basin. There is no evidence to corroborate the influence of water reservoirs on the streamflow variations. It seems that the streamflow variations are subject mainly to precipitation changes, but this requires further analysis. The current study may be of scientific and practical benefit in the conservation and restoration of Poyang Lake, as a kind of wetland, and also in flood mitigation in the middle Yangtze River basin that is under the influence of human activities.

Citation Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Jiang, T. & Chen, X.-H. (2011) Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their hydrological responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 305–318.     

鄱阳湖湖口、外洲、梅港三站水沙变化及趋势分析(1955-2001年)

对鄱阳湖流域三个主要控制站湖口、外洲和梅港多年(1955-2001年)水沙数据进行了统计分析,利用滑动平均法,Spearman秩次相关检验、线性回归检验方法对三个测站的水沙变化趋势进行了分析检验,结果表明,鄱阳湖泥沙出湖集中于长江大汛前的2-6月,在长江7-9月大汛期间,会出现长江泥沙倒灌鄱阳湖的情况．湖口站近期(1990-2001年)径流量和输沙量变幅都非常大,同上世纪80年代相比,年均径流量增加255．3×10~8 m~3．年均减少沙量0．29×10~8 t;外洲站近期的输沙量明显减少,沙量分别为70年代前、70年代、80年代的49．6%、48．7%和52．3%;梅港站径流量略微增加沙量无明显变化趋势．从入湖径流来看,赣江和信江占52．4%,入湖泥沙量占了76．0%以上．从赣江和信江水沙总体变化趋势来看,赣江径流量变化趋势不明显,而输沙量具有明显减少的趋势;信江径流量增加趋势明显,输沙量基本无明显趋势．鄱阳湖流域水沙变化主要受人类活动的影响．土地利用方式的改变和流域水利工程设施的修建极大地影响了流域水沙特征及其变化趋势．     

鄱阳湖流域径流模型

流域径流是鄱阳湖主要来水,建立鄱阳湖流域径流模型对揭示湖泊水量平衡及其受流域自然和人类活动的影响具有重要意义.针对鄱阳湖-流域系统的特点:流域面积大(16.22×104km2)、多条入湖河流、湖滨区坡面入湖径流等,研究了相应的模拟方法,建立了考虑流域土壤属性和土地利用空间变化的鄱阳湖流域分布式径流模型.采用6个水文站1991-2001年的实测河道径流对模型进行了率定和验证.结果显示,模型整体模拟精度较高.其中,赣江、信江和饶河均取得了较好的模拟结果,月效率系数为0.82-0.95;抚河和修水模拟精度略低,为0.65-0.78.模型揭示了研究时段内年平均入湖径流总量为1623×108m3,其中,赣江最多,占47%,其次为信江和抚河,分别占13%和12%,湖滨区坡面入湖径流约占4%,其余24%来自饶河、修水以及其它入湖支流.模型将用于评估流域下垫面或气候变化引起的入湖水量变化,为湖泊水量平衡计算提供依据.     

Copula-based identification of the non-stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load

It is important to identify the non-stationarity in the relation between runoff and sediment load under the backdrop of the changing environment. This relation helps to further understand the mechanisms of runoff and sediment yield. A copula-based method was used to detect possible change points in the relation between runoff and sediment load in the Wei River Basin (WRB), China, where soil erosion is a very severe issue. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test method was applied to obtain the trends of runoff and sediment load spanning 1960–2010 at monthly and annual timescales. Finally, the causes of the identified non-stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load were roughly analyzed from the perspective of climate change and human activities. Results indicated that:(1) the runoff and sediment load in the Jinghe and Wei rivers were generally characterized by noticeably decreasing trends at both monthly and annual timescales;(2) both the Jinghe and Wei rivers had a common change point (2002), implying that the stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load in the Jinghe and Wei River was invalid; (3) human activities including increasing water consumption and growing application of soil conservation practices are dominant factors resulting in non-stationarity in the rela-tion between runoff and sediment load in the WRB. This study provides a new idea for identifying the non-stationarity of multivariate relation in the hydro-meteorological field under the background of the changing environment.     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析

气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的定量研究是当前研究的热点,赣江作为鄱阳湖流域最大的子流域,径流变化对鄱阳湖湿地水生态系统具有重要的影响.利用Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了赣江流域径流1955—2010年间演变趋势,再分别应用统计方法和IHACRES集总式模型分析气候要素和人类活动对径流的影响.研究表明IHACRES能够较好地模拟赣江流域径流,适用于中亚热带湿润季风气候区.Mann-Kendall突变检验表明赣江流域径流在1979年发生突变,可划分为1955—1979年和1980—2010年两个时段.降水是影响赣江流域径流年际变化的主要因素,而土地利用等人类活动的影响并不明显.水库建设显著影响赣江径流的季节分配,1980—2010年间人类活动影响更加显著,其中45%的年份秋季径流增加50%以上,26%的年份秋季径流增加超过100%,其中1989年的秋季径流增加幅度达到320%.     

1960年以来气候变化与人类活动对鄱阳湖流域生态径流改变的影响

基于鄱阳湖流域五河水文站1960-2013年逐日径流量和14个国家级气象站的日气象数据,本文利用长短记忆模型框架构建神经网络模型来开展鄱阳湖流域的径流过程模拟,结合生态赤字与生态盈余等生态径流指标,定量分析了鄱阳湖流域的水文变异特征.同时,利用差异化的情景模拟方式,定量区分了人类活动和气候变化对鄱阳湖流域生态径流变化的...     

基于综合指标法的鄱阳湖生态系统健康评价

由于湖泊生态问题日益突出,湖泊生态系统安全状态已经成为人们关注的热点问题,了解湖泊水生态系统的状况并根据湖泊生态系统健康状况开展精准治理和生态修复与保护尤为重要。本文基于对鄱阳湖及其流域生态环境的长期监测数据和资料收集,采用综合指标体系法,从物理形态、水文、水环境、水域生态、湿地生态和社会服务6个方面构建了鄱阳湖生态系统健康评估的指标体系,主要涵盖了湖泊口门状况、“五河”入湖径流变异程度、入湖河流水质达标率等26个指标。依据设置的阈值等级得到鄱阳湖生态系统健康评价各层次健康状况等级,通过对各湖泊生态系统各指标得分进行加权计算,得出生态系统健康评估准则层和目标层的得分,最终对鄱阳湖生态系统健康进行了客观的评价。结果表明,构建的湖泊生态系统健康评价体系针对性强、科学全面、具有可操作性,可为鄱阳湖及类似通江湖泊的生态系统健康评价提供案例和方法借鉴。评价结果表明鄱阳湖健康体征状况目标层得分为73.45分,评价结果为亚健康,鄱阳湖水生态系统健康主要受泄流能力、水文节律变化、富营养化程度和物种多样性的影响。最后根据鄱阳湖的水生态系统健康评分等级探讨了鄱阳湖水生态系统中亟需解决的问题,针对性地提出了...     

考虑采砂影响的鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度模拟

针对受采砂活动影响显著的鄱阳湖高浑浊水体,结合数值模拟和遥感技术,利用已有的鄱阳湖采砂区遥感监测结果,在构建的鄱阳湖水动力-悬浮泥沙输移模型中添加泥沙点源,对2011年7月1-31日采砂影响下的鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度进行数值模拟.利用悬浮泥沙浓度实测数据和MODIS影像反演结果对模拟结果的有效验证表明,考虑采砂影响后,悬浮泥沙浓度模拟值与实测值具有强相关关系,确定性系数为0.831,均方根误差为15.5 mg/L,悬浮泥沙浓度空间分布趋势与遥感反演结果基本一致.模拟结果显示,采砂活动对鄱阳湖南部主湖区、河流入湖口影响较小,其主要影响由南向北,经棠荫以西和松门山岛以北航道、入江水道延伸到湖口区域,是鄱阳湖北湖区高浑浊水体形成的重要原因.     

基于时间序列MODIS影像的鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度反演及变化

悬浮泥沙浓度是描述水质的重要参数之一,获得其在空间和时间上的分布信息对于理解、管理和保护湖泊生态系统是必要的.此研究旨在建立基于中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)影像的鄱阳湖悬浮泥沙浓度反演模型,并利用建立的模型反演2000-2007年鄱阳湖丰水期的悬浮泥沙浓度,分析其在时间和空间上的变化特征并对引起这些变化的原因进行讨论.研究结果揭示:MODIS Terra影像红波段与悬浮泥沙浓度具有显著的相关性(R2=0.92,s.e.=12.02mg/L,F=154.30,P<0.001),可以用于鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度的反演;自2000-2007年间,鄱阳湖悬浮泥沙浓度呈明显的时间和空间分布特征,在南部水体悬浮泥沙浓度无明显变化,在北部呈增加趋势,而中部水体泥沙浓度波动较大;鄱阳湖北部的采砂活动是导致此区域悬浮泥沙浓度增加的主要原因,其与长江江水倒灌鄱阳湖共同作用引起鄱阳湖中部泥沙浓度的波动,抚河、信江和饶河输沙量的非显著变化也导致南部鄱阳湖水体悬浮泥沙浓度的非显著变化.     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖水龄影响的定量区分

在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,湖泊内部的水动力条件正发生重大的变化,进而影响到湖泊水环境的变化.水龄是颗粒物从入口传输到指定点的时间,可以定量反映水体的运动和交换程度以及滞留情况.如何定量区分人类活动与气候变化对水龄的影响程度,对湖泊水资源科学管理和水环境的治理有着重要的科学意义.本文耦合了深度学习网络和传统二维水动力模型,通过引入基准期概念,定量区分了气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖湖区水龄变化的贡献程度.结果表明:(1)本文构建的鄱阳湖流域降雨径流和鄱阳湖湖区二维水动力耦合模型,能够较好地反映鄱阳湖湖区水量交换及流域产流过程,其纳西效率系数分别达到了0.96和0.90以上;(2)鄱阳湖湖区水龄的空间差异显著,东部湖区和南部湖区尾闾水龄平均为228.01 d,而大部分通江水体水龄较小,平均为24.21 d;(3)在气候变化的影响下,鄱阳湖年均有2054 km2的水体水龄呈现减少的趋势,减小幅度为30 d左右,而在人类活动的影响下,在涨水期和丰水期有约58%的湖区水龄呈现上升趋势,而在枯水期和退水期,平均有82%的水体水龄呈现下降趋势.研究结果能够为鄱阳湖水资源管理和水环境治理提供技术支撑,同时也为定量区分人类活动和气候变化对湖泊水动力的影响机制研究提供了一种新思路和视角.     

Impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on runoff and sediment discharge in the middle Yellow River

Due to climate change and its aggravation by human activities (e.g. hydraulic structures) over the past several decades, the hydrological conditions in the middle Yellow River have markedly changed, leading to a sharp decrease in runoff and sediment discharge. This paper focused on the impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on runoff and sediment discharge, and the study area was located in the 3246 km² Huangfuchuan (HFC) River basin. Changes in annual runoff and sediment discharge were initially analysed by using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Pettitt change point test methods. Subsequently, periods of natural and disturbed states were defined. The results showed that both the annual runoff and sediment discharge presented statistically significant decreasing trends. However, compared with the less remarkable decline in annual rainfall, it was inferred that hydraulic structures might be another important cause for the sharp decrease in runoff and sediment discharge in this region. Consequently, sediment‐trapping dams (STDs, a type of large‐sized check dam used to prevent sediment from entering the Yellow River main stem) were considered in this study. Through evaluating the impacts of the variation in rainfall patterns (i.e. amount and intensity) and the STD construction, a positive correlation between rainfall intensity and current STD construction was found. This paper revealed that future soil and water conservation measures should focus on areas with higher average annual rainfall and more rainstorm hours. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in runoff,sediment load,and their relationship for a major sediment source area of the Jialing River basin,southern China

Investigation of the variations in runoff, sediment load, and their dynamic relation is conducive to understanding hydrological regime changes and supporting channel regulation and fluvial management. This study is undertaken in the Xihanshui catchment, which is known for its high sediment-laden in the Jialing River of the Yangtze River basin, southern China, to evaluate the change characteristics of runoff, sediment load, and their relationship at multi-temporal scales from 1966 to 2016. The results showed that runoff changed significantly for more months, whereas the significant changes in monthly sediment load occurred from April to September. The contributions of runoff in summer and autumn and sediment load in summer to their annual value changes were greater. Annual runoff and sediment load in the Xihanshui catchment both exhibited significant decreasing trends (p < 0.05) with a significant mutation in 1993 (p < 0.05). The average annual runoff in the change period (1994–2016) decreased by 49.58% and annual sediment load displayed a substantial decline with a reduction of 77.77% in comparison with the reference period (1966–1993) due to climate change and intensive human activity. The power functions were satisfactory to describe annual and extreme monthly runoff–sediment relationships, whereas the monthly runoff–sediment relationship and extreme monthly sediment-runoff relationship were changeable. Spatially, annual runoff–sediment relationship alteration could be partly attributed to sediment load changes in the upstream area and runoff variations in the downstream region. Three quantitative methods revealed that the main driver for significant reductions of annual runoff and sediment load is the human activity dominated by soil and water conservation measures, while climate change only contributed 22.73%–38.99% (mean 32.07%) to the total runoff reduction and 3.39%–35.56% (mean 17.32%) to the total decrease in sediment load.     

基于连通性指数(IC)的近30年鄱阳湖流域水系结构与水文连通演变评估

由于气候变化和人类活动等多重影响,流域河湖水系格局与连通程度发生了显著变化,进而引发洪涝灾害等一系列水资源问题。本文以鄱阳湖流域为研究区,基于Google Earth Engine(GEE)提取1989—2020年5期水系数据,采用图论方法构建水系评价体系,定量分析该地区近30年来水系格局和结构连通性的时空演变特征,并结合该时期地形、土地利用和归一化植被指数(NDVI)等数据,利用连通性指数(index of connectivity,IC)评估功能连通性的动态变化,进而探讨水文连通与径流量和输沙量的联系。结果表明,近30年来鄱阳湖流域水系结构趋于复杂化,主要体现在流域北部。除干流外,其他等级河流的数量和长度均有所增加,其中Ⅲ级河流最为明显。河网密度、水面率、河网复杂度和发育系数均呈增加趋势,2000年后的变化率约为2000年前的两倍。水系连通环度、节点连接率和水系连通度总体增加,结构连通性呈好转趋势且变化幅度较小。功能连通分析表明,近30年来大部分流域IC减少,流域下游靠近主河道的平坦地区IC较高,上游远离河道的植被密集区域IC较低。此外,IC与年径流量和输沙量表现为显著的正相关性(...     

Monitoring the impact of backflow and dredging on water clarity using MODIS images of Poyang Lake,China

Backflow from the Yangtze River to Poyang Lake occurs frequently due to their different flood seasons. Based on the reasons for and time period of backflow, this study estimated the spatial‐temporal extent and the change of water clarity influenced by sediments within the backflow and northern Poyang Lake using time‐series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. The results revealed that the sediments from backflows together with dredging activities in the northern Poyang Lake not only affected the northern Poyang Lake, but also influenced the central and southern Poyang Lake and the Poyang Lake national nature reserve, and resulted in great decline of water clarity in the regions influenced, which could seriously affect the lake ecosystem. The results indicated that MODIS images have potential for monitoring the distribution of sediments from backflows and dredging activities. However, the potential is limited because of the frequent cloud cover in the study area and the characteristics of backflow itself. The dredging activity combined with backflows might have great negative impacts on the Poyang Lake ecosystem, and it would be worthwhile to explore the possible impacts in order to develop scientific knowledge to support the decisions, which need to be made by the responsible authorities for deciding how to rationally manage this unique lake ecosystem Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, these effects are quantified using three methods, namely, multi‐regression, hydrologic sensitivity analysis, and hydrologic model simulation. A conceptual framework is defined to separate the effects. As an example, the change in annual runoff from the semiarid Laohahe basin (18 112 km²) in northern China was investigated. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt test, and precipitation‐runoff double cumulative curve method were adopted to identify the trends and change‐points in the annual runoff from 1964 to 2008 by first dividing the long‐term runoff series into a natural period (1964–1979) and a human‐induced period (1980–2008). Then the three quantifying methods were calibrated and calculated, and they provided consistent estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the human‐induced period. In 1980–2008, human activities were the main factors that reduced runoff with contributions of 89–93%, while the reduction percentages due to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration only ranged from 7 to 11%. For the various effects at different durations, human activities were the main reasons runoff decreased during the two drier periods of 1980–1989 and 2000–2008. Increased runoff during the wetter period of 1990–1999 is mainly attributed to climate variability. This study quantitatively separates the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can serve as a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1988-2018年滇池氮磷比的时空演变特征与原因解析

氮、磷浓度是制约湖泊营养状态和生产力水平的重要环境因子,而氮磷化学计量比是湖泊生态系统的主要指标,因此,判识氮磷比变化趋势及其驱动力对湖泊生态恢复具有重要意义.研究基于19882018年连续观测数据,分析了滇池氮磷浓度和氮磷摩尔比(简称氮磷比)的时空分布演变特征;采用多元线性回归模型分别对滇池草海和外海氮磷比驱动效应进行定量解析,筛选出影响湖体氮磷比变化的潜在驱动因子.结果表明:①19882018年滇池氮磷比呈现显著的线性上升趋势,其中草海和外海氮磷比分别上升1.3和0.7 a^-1.②草海和外海分别在2008年和2004年发生了氮磷比上升突变,突变前上升归因于总氮浓度快速增加,突变后则是由于总磷浓度下降较快.③滇池的氮磷浓度变化主要是受流域氮磷输入负荷、跨流域调水、流域氮磷削减、风速和水位的综合影响,但受控因子在不同区域可能存在差异.④气温是滇池氮磷比变化的主要驱动因子,流域人为氮磷输入差异是滇池氮磷比变化的次要驱动因子.     

黄河上游近60年水沙变化特征及其影响因素

由于受人类活动及气候变化影响,黄河上游干流水沙特征发生显著变化。为探究黄河上游水沙变化情况,基于黄河上游5个水文站1964-2019年水沙、遥感影像等数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验法、累积距平曲线和双累积曲线等突变检验方法和小波分析法,对黄河上游水沙变化特征进行研究。利用水沙关系曲线及线性回归法等方法估算人类活动和气候对水沙变化的贡献率,并着重讨论梯级水库建设及土地利用变化对水沙的影响。结果表明:1)黄河上游玛曲-小川段流域内降雨量和径流量变化幅度不明显,贵德站、循化站、小川站1986-2019年年均输沙量分别减至1964-1985年的9.8%、24.6%、38.8%,输沙量大大减少。黄河上游玛曲-小川段径流量突变多在1986年,输沙量突变多在1969、1986、2004年,径流量存在8、16、22 a周期,输沙量存在4~8、18~21、27 a周期。2)1969年后,河流输沙能力增强,水沙关系显著改变。在不同时段内,人类活动对径流量变化在1987-2019年贡献率为66.3%,对输沙量变化在1970-1986、1987-2004、2005-2019年的贡献率为72.96%、70.73%、69.7%。人类活动对黄河上游干流水沙影响占据主导因素。3)刘家峡水库淤积最为严重,单库运行期水库淤积量为2.39亿t,排沙比变化范围为1.39%~10.7%。梯级水库联调使得径流量在1964-2004年间减少47.8%,1964-2019年间梯级水库减沙94.8%,梯级水库对输沙量影响远大于对径流量的影响。4)1980-2020年间,草地面积增加了1880.03 km²,增幅3.1%,有利于减少输沙量,草地拦沙效益大于截流效益。     

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.