Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄱阳湖湖口、外洲、梅港三站水沙变化及趋势分析(1955-2001年)

对鄱阳湖流域三个主要控制站湖口、外洲和梅港多年(1955-2001年)水沙数据进行了统计分析,利用滑动平均法,Spearman秩次相关检验、线性回归检验方法对三个测站的水沙变化趋势进行了分析检验,结果表明,鄱阳湖泥沙出湖集中于长江大汛前的2-6月,在长江7-9月大汛期间,会出现长江泥沙倒灌鄱阳湖的情况．湖口站近期(1990-2001年)径流量和输沙量变幅都非常大,同上世纪80年代相比,年均径流量增加255．3×10~8 m~3．年均减少沙量0．29×10~8 t;外洲站近期的输沙量明显减少,沙量分别为70年代前、70年代、80年代的49．6%、48．7%和52．3%;梅港站径流量略微增加沙量无明显变化趋势．从入湖径流来看,赣江和信江占52．4%,入湖泥沙量占了76．0%以上．从赣江和信江水沙总体变化趋势来看,赣江径流量变化趋势不明显,而输沙量具有明显减少的趋势;信江径流量增加趋势明显,输沙量基本无明显趋势．鄱阳湖流域水沙变化主要受人类活动的影响．土地利用方式的改变和流域水利工程设施的修建极大地影响了流域水沙特征及其变化趋势．     

Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Abstract

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and plays a major role in flood mitigation, restoration and conservation of the ecological environment in the middle Yangtze River basin. Sediment load and streamflow variations in Poyang Lake basin are important for the scouring and deposition changes of this lake. However, these hydrological processes are heavily influenced by human activities, such as construction of water reservoirs, and land-use/land cover changes. By thorough analysis of long series of sediment and streamflow obtained from five major hydrological stations, we systematically investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological processes and the hydrological responses to human activities using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the double cumulative mass curve and the linear regression method. The results show: (1) no significant change in streamflow followed by an increasing tendency after the 1990s that turns to be decreasing about 2000; and (2) a sharp increase of sediment load during the late 1960s and 1970s triggered by extensive deforestation (during the “Cultural Revolution” in China) followed by a tendency to decrease after the early 1980s. Construction of water reservoirs has greatly reduced the sediment load of the Poyang Lake basin, and this is particularly the case in the Ganjiang River, where the sediment load changes may be attributed to the trapping effects of the Wan'an Reservoir, the largest water reservoir within the Poyang Lake basin. There is no evidence to corroborate the influence of water reservoirs on the streamflow variations. It seems that the streamflow variations are subject mainly to precipitation changes, but this requires further analysis. The current study may be of scientific and practical benefit in the conservation and restoration of Poyang Lake, as a kind of wetland, and also in flood mitigation in the middle Yangtze River basin that is under the influence of human activities.

Citation Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Jiang, T. & Chen, X.-H. (2011) Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their hydrological responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 305–318.     

Lake sediment records on climate change and human activities since the Holocene in Erhai catchment,Yunnan Province,China

Climate of Yunnan Plateau is mainly controlledby the system of southwest Asian monsoon, and alsoaffected by westerlies and local climate of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau. Since the Cenozoic, a large numberof structural lake basins have formed with the uplift ofthe Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[1]. As the information aboutthe climate and environment change was faithfullydocumented in lake sediments, which have the char-acteristics of continuity, high resolution, abundant in-formation, lake sediments p…     

1960年以来气候变化与人类活动对鄱阳湖流域生态径流改变的影响

基于鄱阳湖流域五河水文站1960-2013年逐日径流量和14个国家级气象站的日气象数据,本文利用长短记忆模型框架构建神经网络模型来开展鄱阳湖流域的径流过程模拟,结合生态赤字与生态盈余等生态径流指标,定量分析了鄱阳湖流域的水文变异特征.同时,利用差异化的情景模拟方式,定量区分了人类活动和气候变化对鄱阳湖流域生态径流变化的...     

Analysis of river runoff in the Poyang Lake Basin of China: long-term changes and influencing factors

An analysis of the variation characteristics and evolutionary trends in the runoff of five rivers in the Poyang Lake Basin was conducted using the MK trend test, Morlet wavelet transforms, correlation analyses, and other methods. For 1956–2011, the inflow runoff displays small, statistically insignificant trends. However, for 2000–2011, significant downward trends are present. River runoff in the basin is significantly correlated with precipitation, while water intake and use is less influential; the most significant impact on river runoff is climate variability. To analyse the effects of water conservancy project scheduling and operation, we also compare the inflow and outflow runoff processes of typical large reservoirs before and after peak reservoir construction. The scheduling and operation of large reservoirs in the five rivers is known to play a supplementary role in dry season inflow runoff. The recent reduction in inflow runoff was mainly caused by basin precipitation; reasonable scheduling of water conservancy projects in the five rivers plays a positive role in safeguarding the water required by the dry season ecosystem in Poyang Lake.     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析

气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的定量研究是当前研究的热点,赣江作为鄱阳湖流域最大的子流域,径流变化对鄱阳湖湿地水生态系统具有重要的影响.利用Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了赣江流域径流1955—2010年间演变趋势,再分别应用统计方法和IHACRES集总式模型分析气候要素和人类活动对径流的影响.研究表明IHACRES能够较好地模拟赣江流域径流,适用于中亚热带湿润季风气候区.Mann-Kendall突变检验表明赣江流域径流在1979年发生突变,可划分为1955—1979年和1980—2010年两个时段.降水是影响赣江流域径流年际变化的主要因素,而土地利用等人类活动的影响并不明显.水库建设显著影响赣江径流的季节分配,1980—2010年间人类活动影响更加显著,其中45%的年份秋季径流增加50%以上,26%的年份秋季径流增加超过100%,其中1989年的秋季径流增加幅度达到320%.     

考虑采砂影响的鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度模拟

针对受采砂活动影响显著的鄱阳湖高浑浊水体,结合数值模拟和遥感技术,利用已有的鄱阳湖采砂区遥感监测结果,在构建的鄱阳湖水动力-悬浮泥沙输移模型中添加泥沙点源,对2011年7月1-31日采砂影响下的鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度进行数值模拟.利用悬浮泥沙浓度实测数据和MODIS影像反演结果对模拟结果的有效验证表明,考虑采砂影响后,悬浮泥沙浓度模拟值与实测值具有强相关关系,确定性系数为0.831,均方根误差为15.5 mg/L,悬浮泥沙浓度空间分布趋势与遥感反演结果基本一致.模拟结果显示,采砂活动对鄱阳湖南部主湖区、河流入湖口影响较小,其主要影响由南向北,经棠荫以西和松门山岛以北航道、入江水道延伸到湖口区域,是鄱阳湖北湖区高浑浊水体形成的重要原因.     

鄱阳湖水面蒸发量的计算与变化趋势分析(1955-2004年)

利用器测折算法与气候模式法,分别计算鄱阳湖周围康山、棠荫、都昌、星子、湖口5站的单站水面蒸发量,以5站两种方法计算值的平均值代表鄱阳湖大湖面的水面蒸发量,求得鄱阳湖1955-2004年各月的水面蒸发量和蒸发水量,结果为：多年平均年蒸发量1081．2 mm．年蒸发水量27．06×10~8 m~3．对年、月水面蒸发量在近50年来的变化趋势进行了分析,表明除5月份外,其他各月蒸发量和年蒸发量均呈逐渐减少趋势,年蒸发量平均每年减小2．79 mm,年蒸发水量平均减少0．05×10~8 m~3,对湖区水资源持续利用和湖泊环境将产生明显影响．对水面蒸发量递减原因进行了初步探讨．     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析

量化气候变化和人类活动对流域水文影响及其对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用水文模型和多元回归法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖"五河"径流的影响,并通过与灵敏度分析法对比来进一步验证分析结果 .研究表明,1970-2009年,气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流增加的贡献率分别为73%和27%.气候变化是饶河、信江和赣江径流增加的主导因素,而人类活动是修水径流增加的主要因素,是抚河径流减少的主要原因.另外,不同季节影响径流变化的主导因素又有不同,人类活动为干季(11月到次年2月)径流增加和湿季(4-6月)径流减小的主导因素,其贡献率分别为78.9%和82.7%.本研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪抗旱及水资源优化配置提供重要科学依据.     

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing,China

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water–energy balance equations with the Penman-Monteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5–12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4–89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.Y. Xu     

水利工程兴建后洞庭湖径流与泥沙的变化

本文根据1951—1988年洞庭湖及其入湖河流的水文泥沙资料,研究大型水利工程兴建后洞庭湖径流与泥沙的变化。研究表明,近40年来洞庭湖的径流量减少了29.2％,输沙量减少了48.7％。引起水沙变化的主要原因是荆江四口分流河床的淤积,使荆江入湖的径流量与输沙量减少。1966—1972年下荆江三个弯道裁弯取直,使荆江河床下切,导致荆江及其分流水位的下降,也促使荆江分流的流量与输沙量的减少。40年来洞庭湖水流变化的趋势对洞庭湖、江汉平原与长江中下游的防洪较为有利。     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖水龄影响的定量区分

在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,湖泊内部的水动力条件正发生重大的变化,进而影响到湖泊水环境的变化.水龄是颗粒物从入口传输到指定点的时间,可以定量反映水体的运动和交换程度以及滞留情况.如何定量区分人类活动与气候变化对水龄的影响程度,对湖泊水资源科学管理和水环境的治理有着重要的科学意义.本文耦合了深度学习网络和传统二维水...     

基于长短记忆模型的鄱阳湖流域径流模拟及其演变的归因分析

气候变化和人类活动直接或间接的影响着全球和区域水文循环过程,是导致水文水资源时空分布的主要因素,同时也是流域-湖泊水文情势变化的根本原因.本文基于长短记忆模型构建了鄱阳湖气象—径流模型,同时引入了基准期的概念,定量区分了导致鄱阳湖流域径流变化的主要影响因素.研究结果表明:在同时考虑计算效率和模拟效果的前提下,采用10 ...     

鄱阳湖网箱养殖区沉积物有机质来源分析

通过对鱼苗时期鄱阳湖网箱养殖区沉积物、饵料及鱼粪等样品总有机碳(TOC)含量、总氮(TN)含量、碳氮比(C/N)、δ^13 C及δ^15 N的测定,分析探讨了鄱阳湖网箱养殖区沉积物有机质来源,量化了网箱养殖废物对养殖区沉积物有机质的贡献.结果表明,网箱养殖区沉积物的δ^13 C和δ^15 N值分别为-27.67‰~-25.65‰和5.19‰~7.27‰,饵料的δ^13 C和δ^15 N值分别为-24.73‰和10.28‰,鱼粪的δ^13 C和δ^15 N值分别为-26.30‰和15.54‰.网箱养殖区沉积物有机质来源主要有残饵、浮游生物及其他来源,其贡献率分别为48.3%±11.4%、25.6%±11.3%及26.0%±5.8%,而鱼粪的贡献几乎可以忽略不计.在水动力平流引起的扩散及沉积物的再悬浮的影响下,网箱养殖源有机质的扩散距离达1500 m.在鱼苗时期,鱼类网箱养殖的残饵是鄱阳湖网箱养殖区沉积物有机质的主要来源.     

鄱阳湖湖泊气候及其围垦后的变化

对鄱阳湖地区30多年的气候资料分析比较得出,鄱阳湖围垦后,年平均气温垦区上升0.11℃,湖区上升0．09℃,年平均最高气温垦区上升0．57℃,湖区上升0．07℃,口最高气温≥35℃的天数垦区年增加10天,湖区年增加4天,年平均最低气温垦区下降0．26℃,湖区上升0．06℃,水汽压和相对湿度,垦区减少0.05hpa和1％,湖区减少0.1hPa和1％,降水量垦区减少95mm,湖区变化不明显,因而,湖区有向干旱陆相盆地气候发展的趋势。     

20世纪90年代鄱阳湖洪水特征的分析

20世纪90年代,鄱阳湖平均水位超过近50年来的任何10年,年最高水位出现近100年来的最大值,灾害性洪水年年都有,大洪水接二连三;洪水位明显偏高,大洪水显著偏多,是有水文资料记载以来典型的丰水时期;本文从水文,统计角度分析这10年里的洪水特征,探讨高水位形成的原因。     

1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识

为针对性地提出洪湖流域水资源适应与应对气候变化和人类活动影响的措施,保护洪湖流域生态资源,促进其可持续发展,采取分布式水文模型SWAT定量辨识了1990s流域城镇快速发展以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域地表径流的影响程度.结果表明:近20年来,人类活动是洪湖流域地表径流减少的主要原因,其影响量占径流减少量的63.72%,气候变化的影响占36.28%.但不同阶段人类活动与气候变化对流域径流影响的程度不同,1990s气候变化对流域径流的影响量高于人类活动,2000s气候变化对流域径流的影响量低于人类活动,近20年来的水土保持措施已经发挥了较好的径流调节和保水效益.     

东、南洞庭湖的径流、泥沙特征及冲淤规律

通过实地调查并对1957年以来水文、泥沙观测资料做系统分析和计算,探讨东、南洞庭湖出、入湖水量、沙量的年际和年内变化特征,以及长江下荆江段裁弯对湖区径流和泥沙的影响。提出了湖区泥沙汛淤枯冲的变化规律及水位升降与湖区泥沙冲淤的关系;论证了丰、平、枯年湖区淤积严重,面积日益缩小对径流的调节作用正在减弱。