我国首座深水海洋钻井平台在沪建造

代表当今世界钻井平台先进水平的第六代3000m深水半潜式钻井平台于2008年4月28日在上海外高桥造船有限公司开工兴建。这是我国首次建造深水钻井特大型装备。专业人士指出,此举不仅填补了我国在大型深水钻井平台项目上的空白,而且对于提高深水作业能力和海洋工业装备制造水平,维护国家利益具有重要的战略意义。     

埋藏古河道对海洋石油平台安全性的影响研究——以渤海某油田开发项目为例

埋藏古河道作为一种灾害性地质特征,可能对钻井平台就位、海上桩基的打入及桩基安全造成不利影响。渤海某油田开发项目在工程物探调查中发现在预定平台位置处有埋藏古河道。为保证油田顺利开发,开展了埋藏古河道对海洋石油平台安全性的影响研究。通过埋藏古河道对钻井平台就位的影响分析,对桩的可打入性的影响分析和对桩基承载力的影响分析,成功探索出了油田开发项目中遇到埋藏古河道的解决思路。该灾害性地质特征的成功论证,既保证了该项目的顺利进行,又探索出了油田开发项目中遇到该问题的解决思路,对我国海洋石油的开发有借鉴意义。     

海洋石油钻井平台工程地质条件评价技术研究

海洋石油钻井平台是海洋油气勘探开发的重要手段,其安全就位和稳定施工,与井场区海底的工程地质条件密切相关。就事关平台安全的工程地质条件预测评价技术作了研究,评价预测了与自升式钻井平台稳定作业有关的软弱下卧地层的穿插和持力、海底斜坡条件下工程地质层稳定性、半潜式钻井平台的锚固力以及不同底质条件下海底底流的冲蚀。推荐了实践有效的半经验计算公式,为海洋石油钻井平台井场工程地质条件的稳定评价提供参考。     

海洋石油总公司严格依法保护环境

保护海洋环境、防止造成污染,这是海洋石油勘探开发面对的一个十分重要的问题。在海洋石油勘探开发活动中,可能对海洋环境造成污染的主要有以下两个方面:一是在原油生产中向海洋排放含油污水;二是采油平台、钻井平台和各种船只在作业中因意外事故向海洋溢漏油。国家对此都实行了严格的管理,于1983年和1985年先后颁布了《海洋石油勘探开发环境保护管理条例》和《海洋石油开发工业含油污水排放标准》,规定钻井平台应设油水分离设备、排油监控装置、残油、废油回收设施;采油平台应设置含油污水处理设备,并规定在渤海     

海洋钻井平台市场将逐步转好

据近期Offshore杂志报载,全球749座钻井平台中573座签有合同,平台的使用率为76．5％。虽然2009年8月,海洋钻井平台的使用率降到74．9％,但随后已慢慢地回升。拥有超过10座钻井平台数的钻井承包商平台工作和各区域的分布情况见表1。     

中石化集团加速进军海上石油

中石化集团2009年2月3日宣布,该集团新建海洋钻井平台——BMPC375自升式钻井平台于日前在新加坡船厂开工建造。在业内人士看来,这意味着油气开采陆海分界打破后,中石化、中石油等传统陆上石油巨无霸正在加速“下海”。中石化将会推进实施海洋油气资源战略。     

自升式钻井平台悬臂梁负荷试验方法研究

悬臂梁负荷试验是自升式钻井平台建造完工交付使用之前的关键试验项目之一.以200 ft自升式钻井平台“海洋石油923”为例,针对悬臂梁负荷试验方法做出了探索研究,试验结果表明,此方法行之有效,具有操作简便,安全可靠的优点,为其它类似工程项目的顺利实施提供了宝贵的经验和借鉴.     

钻井泥浆和钻屑对海洋环境的影响及管理对策研究

文章对海洋石油钻井泥浆和钻屑的分类、其中的污染源及其对海洋环境的影响进行了分析探讨,梳理了我国及世界其他国家对海上钻井泥浆和钻屑的管理规定,针对我国海洋石油平台及邻近水域污染现状,从技术及管理角度提出几点对策建议,以期改善或恢复海洋石油开发海域的海洋环境。     

海浪预报服务

60年代以来,由于世界性的能源危机和人口迅速增长,海洋开发成了举世瞩目的新领域。然而,在海上生产的过程中,往往会受到海洋环境条件的限制。尤其是凶猛的海浪,经常给航运、渔业捕捞、海洋油气开发、军事活动以及沿岸港工建筑等带来灾难。近代研究表明,海上破坏力90％来自海浪,仅10％来自风。以海洋油气开发为例,在海上勘探和开采石油,需要海洋石油钻井平台,一座稳如泰山的钻井平台,有时由于风暴和巨     

国家自然科学基金海洋科学项目基础资料数据库管理系统的设计

介绍了以ＦｏｘＰｒｏ为软件开发平台的国家自然科学基金海洋科学项目基础资料数据库管理系统的设计。该系统包括国家自然科学基金支持的海洋各分支学科项目的基础信息，如资料、人员、获奖情况等。并提供了查询和统计分析等功能，为管理部门管理和有效地利用海洋科学基金项目的基础资料提供了科学手段。     

基于信息扩散技术的华南极端台风灾害风险评估

利用2005—2016年登陆华南地区的12个极端台风灾害样本, 综合考虑了承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力, 对华南地区进行极端台风灾害风险评估, 步骤如下: 1) 以各指标的灰色关联度为基础, 构造华南极端台风的危险性指数、脆弱性指数和防灾减灾能力指数; 2) 根据灾害风险数学表达式, 以层次分析法确定的系统权重为基础, 构造华南地区极端台风灾害风险指数; 3) 通过二维正态扩散技术构造原始信息矩阵和模糊关系矩阵, 利用因素空间理论进行模糊近似推理, 计算得到由风险指数近似估计直接经济损失指数的风险估计值; 4) 利用超概率评估模型, 对极端台风的直接经济损失率进行超概率评估。结果表明, 构造的风险指数与实际情况较为吻合, 计算得到的风险估计值与直接经济损失指数变化趋势较为一致, 均方误差为0.20, 相关系数为0.78。结果还表明, 由极端台风造成的直接经济损失率为0.1%, 已成为常态风险, 华南地区极端台风灾害的超越概率与直接经济损失率呈现出良好的线性关系。     

System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities

—In China,estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers.Thedisasters by combined effect of upper reach flood,storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstaclesto the economic development of such cities.Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-stormsurge-wave disaster,economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role inthe sustainable development of coastal cities.There are three types of coastal cities for consideration.Thefirst type of city is like Tianjin.The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood.The effect ofstorm surge is negligible,because in the estuary of the Haihe River,tidal locks are built.The Grey MarkovModel(GMM)is used to forecast the flood peak level.GMM combines the Grey system and the Markovtheory into a high-precision model.The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data.A syn-thetic model is established for economic assessment,risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation.Asa n     

THESEUS decision support system for coastal risk management

While planning coastal risk management strategies, coastal managers need to assess risk across a range of spatial and temporal scales. GIS-based tools are one efficient way to support them in the decision making process through a scenarios analysis starting from social, economic and environmental information integrated into a common platform. However, this integration process requires a significant effort from a team of scientists in terms of a) identifying the appropriate scales and data resolution for analysing social, environmental and economic issues; b) selecting and linking an appropriate set of tools to build a coupled model; c) representing key emerging (and hence challenging) research issues, such as risk perception and social resilience in the model; d) developing multi-criteria analysis to integrate social, environmental, economic impacts; and e) accounting for the expectations of the stakeholders and therefore optimizing the opportunity for them to interact with the tool development and with the final tool itself.In this spirit, this paper presents an open-source Spatial Decision Support System developed within the THESEUS Project to help decision makers to scopeg optimal strategies to minimise coastal risks. The exploratory tool allows the users to perform an integrated coastal risk assessment, to analyse the effects of different combinations of engineering, social, economic and ecologically based mitigation options, across short (2020s), medium (2050s) and long-term (2080s) scenarios, taking into account physical and non-physical drivers, such as climate change, subsidence, population and economic growth.     

海洋结构物码头装船风险分析

在文献[1]的基础上,提出了海洋结构物在码头装船过程中的风险分析方法,包括以下内容:确定风险类别与风险源;建立各个施工过程的事故树;定性分析系统各个环节并找出薄弱环节;定量计算重点环节的风险值;风险排序并提出改进措施。并通过实例分析验证了方法的适用性。     

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害评估与管理

在全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,带来的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害评估对于海洋经济建设、资源开发和工程建设具有重要的现实意义。文章首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出了处理不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型实现了海洋灾害的风险评估,具有一定的科学性和可行性。     

A fuzzy set theory approach to flagging out: towards a new Chinese shipping policy

The paper seeks to model the benefits and costs involved in the decision to flag out, and to provide arguments for alternative policies, aiming to counteract this age-long phenomenon. Based on the analysis of the evolution of worldwide and Chinese flagging out, the emphasis in the paper is on the comprehensive effect assessment of flagging out and the required adjustment of Chinese shipping policy. To identify the determinants of such an adjustment, the paper introduces fuzzy set theory and related models, aimed to assess the economic effects of flagging out through the use of context-dependent economic and societal indicators (factors). The degree to which such indicators contribute to the choice of flag decision is assessed through a questionnaire survey. In parallel, and in the context of the determinant analysis of fuzzy models, the paper probes into the ‘policy competition’ and ‘government intervention’ policies to counteract flagging out. In the same context, a comparative analysis of shipping policies between China and traditional maritime countries is undertaken, in order to assess the current ‘openness’ of the Chinese shipping policy and explore possible policy alternatives. The paper concludes that the preferred policy alternative for China would be the establishment of second international ship register.     

海上化学品泄漏环境风险生态损害价值评估

选择厦门市海沧化工园区为典型案例区,以二甲苯为研究对象,采用数值模拟技术,对海岸带化工园区化学品泄漏的环境风险与生态效应进行了预测和识别,评估了海洋生态服务功能、水质、生物、潮滩生境4种对象的价值损失．结果表明,泄漏地点、风向、潮时以及泄漏量是影响化学品泄漏环境风险差异的主要因素．当泄漏量较小、泄漏点靠近化工泊位时,E风低潮时对海洋生态影响最大,此时最大生态价值损失约为3994万元;当泄漏量较大、泄漏点位于靠近外海的船舶锚地时,SSW风高潮时对海洋生态影响最大,生态价值损失最大为18732万元．在4种对象中,生态服务功能损失和生物损失对价值损害的贡献最大．     

Safety level of damaged RoPax ships: Risk modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

This paper elaborates on results of a recent risk analysis study for RoPax vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project, targeting possible improvements on safety levels following large scale flooding. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of accident statistics for the period 1994–2004, through which a high-level risk model (in the form of event trees) is established. This is then used to determine the current safety level of RoPax vessels (in various risk metrics, such as individual risk, potential loss of life and on an F–N curve), reconfirming that even though safety levels are improving, risk is still “high in the ALARP region”. In search of ways to further improve the situation possible risk control options are examined, by performing a sensitivity analysis on the effects of the Attained Index of Subdivision A onto the safety levels and by evaluating their cost-effectiveness.     

海上化学品泄漏环境风险生态损害价值评估

海岸带化工园区化学品泄漏的环境风险问题已经成为威胁我国海洋生态资源的重要因素之一。对海上化学品泄漏的生态环境风险损失进行先期评估,并将价值评估信息纳入到海洋环境管理中,可为海岸带开发以及海岸带管理经济刺激手段的制定提供决策依据。本文选择厦门市海沧化工园区为典型案例区,进行海岸带化工园区化学品泄漏事故的风险生态效应识别与影响预测,评估环境风险的生态损害价值,从而为基于环境风险分析的海洋生态资源生态补偿的研究与实践提供借鉴。     

Alaskan fishing community revenues and the stabilizing role of fishing portfolios

Fishing communities are subject to economic risk as the commercial fisheries they rely on are intrinsically volatile. The degree to which a community is exposed to economic risk depends on a community׳s ability to confront and/or alter its exposure to volatile fishery conditions through risk-reduction mechanisms. In this article, economic risk – as measured by community-level fishing gross revenues variability – is characterized across Alaskan fishing communities over the past two decades, and exploratory analyses are conducted to identify associations between community attributes and revenues variability. Results show that communities’ fishing portfolio size and diversification are strongly related to fishing revenues variability. Communities with larger and/or more diverse fishing portfolios experience lower fishing revenues variability. Portfolio size and diversification appear to be related to the number of local fisheries, indicating that communities’ portfolios may be constrained to the set of local fisheries. Hotspots of relatively higher fishing revenues variability for communities in north and west Alaska were identified, mirroring the spatial distribution of fishery-specific ex-vessel revenues variability. This overall pattern suggests that a community׳s fishing portfolio – and hence its exposure to risk – may be “predetermined” by its location, thereby limiting the policy options available to promote economic stability through larger and/or more diverse fishing portfolios. For such communities, diversifying income across non-fishing sectors may be an important risk reduction strategy, provided any potential negative cross-sector externalities are addressed.