Surface forcing of interannual variations in the radiation balance over North Africa part I: Partitioning the surface and cloud forcing

Previous research has shown that most significant interannual variability of the net radiation balance is confined to a few distinct centers at low latitudes. North Africa is the only continental region within this zone which undergoes large amplitude interannual changes. This two part study focuses on the origins of the North African radiation balance variability, its relationship to precipitation processes, and the potential impact of confined regional variations on global climate. Part I investigates how net radiation perturbations can be decomposed into surface induced components and cloud induced components. The methodology is based on lengthy time series of satellite derived radiation budget and cloudiness quantities in conjunction with a technique derived from the Cess et al. (1982) study involving the formulation of a climate sensitivity parameter.The analysis shows that a significant portion of the interannual modulation of net radiation over North Africa arises from surface influences. Furthermore it appears that a significant part of the mechanism inducing these changes takes place through precipitation controls on the land surface. Cloud induced anomalies are important but represent the weaker of the two processes. Since North Africa is the sink portion of a large scale, cross-meridional energy transport dipole counterpoised to a large scale energy source in the Western Pacific, it is of fundamental importance on the global scale to determine the origins of net radiation variations within the sink.The analysis indicates three dominant time scales associated with precipitation feedback on the net radiation anomalies; a slow manifold of approximately 20 months; a fast manifold of 2.5 months; and a semi-annual manifold. These time scales underlie the surface and cloud forced net radiation anomalies in which southern, central, and northern latitude sectors of North Africa exhibit their own distinct modes of control on the regional radiation balance.     

Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature

Summary Using terrestrial observations of shelter-height air temperature and shipboard measurements, a global climatology of mean monthly surface air temperature has been compiled. Data were obtained from ten sources, screened for coding errors, and redundant station records were removed. The combined data base consists of 17 986 independent terrestrial station records and 6 955 oceanic grid-point records. These data were then interpolated to a 0.5° of latitude by 0.5° of longitude lattice using a spherically-based interpolation algorithm. Spatial distributions of the annual mean and intra-annual variance are presented along with a harmonic decomposition of the intra-annual variance.With 7 Figures     

六种HFCs的辐射强迫与全球增温潜能

采用最新分子吸收数据集HITRAN2004中6种氢氟碳化物（HFCs）的吸收截面数据,建立了它们的相关K-分布的辐射计算方案,研究了这些长寿命温室气体浓度变化引起的辐射强迫,比较了它们的全球增温潜能。结果表明,从1750年到2005年由于这些气体浓度变化引起的总的辐射强迫约为0、0066Wm^-2,未来100a的辐射强迫结果说明它们对未来全球变暖的贡献不容忽视。     

Field measurements of NO and NO2 emissions from fertilized and unfertilized soils

Field measurements of NO and NO₂ emissions from soils have been performed in Finthen near Mainz (F.R.G.) and in Utrera near Seville (Spain). The applied method employed a flow box coupled with a chemiluminescent NO _x detector allowing the determination of minimum flux rates of 2 g N m^-2 h^-1 for NO and 3 g m^-2 h^-1 for NO₂.The NO and NO₂ flux rates were found to be strongly dependent on soil surface temperatures and showed strong daily variations with maximum values during the early afternoon and minimum values during the early morning. Between the daily variation patterns of NO and NO₂, there was a time lag of about 2 h which seem to be due to the different physico-chemical properties of NO and NO₂. The apparent activation energy of NO emission calculated from the Arrhenius equation ranged between 44 and 103 kJ per mole. The NO and NO₂ emission rates were positively correlated with soil moisture in the upper soil layer.The measurements carried out in August in Finthen clearly indicate the establishment of NO and NO₂ equilibrium mixing ratios which appeared to be on the order of 20 ppbv for NO and 10 ppbv for NO₂. The soil acted as a net sink for ambient air NO and NO₂ mixing ratios higher than the equilibrium values and a net source for NO and NO₂ mixing ratios lower than the equilibrium values. This behaviour as well as the observation of equilibrium mixing ratios clearly indicate that NO and NO₂ are formed and destroyed concurrently in the soil.Average flux rates measured on bare unfertilized soils were about 10 g N m^-2 h^-1 for NO₂ and 8 g N m^-2 h^-1 for NO. The NO and NO₂ flux rates were significantly reduced on plant covered soil plots. In some cases, the flux rates of both gases became negative indicating that the vegetation may act as a sink for atmospheric NO and NO₂.Application of mineral fertilizers increased the NO and NO₂ emission rates. Highest emission rates were observed for urea followed by NH₄Cl, NH₄NO₃ and NaNO₃. The fertilizer loss rates ranged from 0.1% for NaNO₃ to 5.4% for urea. Vegetation cover substantially reduced the fertilizer loss rate.The total NO _x emission from soil is estimated to be 11 Tg N yr^-1. This figure is an upper limit and includes the emission of 7 Tg N yr^-1 from natural unfertilized soils, 2 Tg N yr^-1 from fertilized soils as well as 2 Tg N yr^-1 from animal excreta. Despite its speculative character, this estimation indicates that NO _x emission by soil is important for tropospheric chemistry especially in remote areas where the NO _x production by other sources is comparatively small.     

Radiative Forcing of SO2 and NOx： A Case Study in Beijing

A case study was performed in Beijing in 2000 to observe concentrations of SO2 and NOx in the atmosphere and to evaluate their radiative impact. It was found that the concentrations of these gases are usually high in the morning due to a temperature inversion in the boundary layer. The average concentrations obtained from the observations are much higher than those used in the McClatchey reference atmosphere. The radiative impacts of these gases are calculated using a line-by-line radiative transfer model. The results show that the radiative forcing at the surface due to SO2 is 0.0576 W m-2 and that due to NOx is 0.0032 W m-2. These figures are almost compatible with that due to CFC11.     

On the seasonal sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific

Summary In this paper, we investigated physical processes that control the seasonal variations of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific, using an intermediate ocean model. It is found that the westward propagation of sea surface temperature along the equator is attributed to dynamic response of the ocean to the wind (that consists of 3-dimensional temperature advection), whereas the northward propagation of sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific results from the thermodynamic response of the ocean to the surface heat flux, primarily shortwave radiation that includes the effect of low-level stratus clouds. The remote response of the eastern Pacific sea surface temperature to seasonally varying wind in the western Pacific is of secondary importance, compared to the local wind forcing. The results suggest that the mechanism that controls the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature is different from that associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.With 9 Figures     

A determination of the CH4, NO x and CO2 emissions from the Prudhoe Bay,Alaska oil development

In this paper we quantify the CH₄, CO₂ and NO _x emissions during routine operations at a major oil and gas production facility, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, using the concentrations of combustion by products measured at the NOAA-CMDL observatory at Barrow, Alaska and fuel consumption data from Prudhoe Bay. During the 1989 and 1990 measurement campaigns, 10 periods (called events) were unambiguously identified where surface winds carry the Prudhoe Bay emissions to Barrow (approximately 300 km). The events ranged in duration from 8–48 h and bring ambient air masses containing substantially elevated concentrations of CH₄, CO₂ and NO _y to Barrow. Using the slope of the observed CH₄ vs CO₂ concentrations during the events and the CO₂ emissions based on reported fuel consumption data, we calculate annual CH₄ emissions of (24+/–8)×10³ metric tons from the facility. In a similar manner, the annual NO _x emissions are calculated to be (12+/–4)×10³ metric tons, which is in agreement with an independently determined value. The calculated CH₄ emissions represent the amount released during routine operations including leakage. However this quantity would not include CH₄ released during non-routine operations, such as from venting or gas flaring.     

Radiative energy partition and cloud radiative forcing at a Po valley site

Values of downward and upward flux densities of solar and terrestrial radiation were continuously recorded between 1 December 2001 and 30 November 2002 using a four-components radiometer at S. Pietro Capofiume (SPC) in northern Italy (44°39′N, 11°37′E, alt. 11 m a.m.s.l.), which is characterized by a weakly-reflective surface. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of clouds on surface radiation balance (SRB); the cloud fraction (N) has been retrieved through the inverted form of the parameterization proposed by Kasten and Czeplak [Solar Energy 24 (1980) 177] and cloud types estimated following the methodology of Duchon and O'Malley [J. Appl. Meteorol. 38 (1999) 132]. The cloud radiative forcing (CRF) was evaluated through the Bintanja and Van den Broeke [Int. J. Climatol. 16 (1996) 1281] formula and then associated with cloud type. Experimental results showed that during the measuring period the net shortwave (Sw) balance always decreased with increasing N, whereas the net longwave (Lw) balance increased in all seasons. The net radiation available at the surface decreased with increasing N in all seasons except in winter, where no significant dependency was detected.The analysis of the cloud radiative forcing indicates that all seasons were characterized by a net cooling of the surface except winter, where clouds seem to have no effects on the surface warming or cooling. Taking into account the dependence on solar radiation cycle, an intercomparison between the retrieved cloud types seems to indicate that the effect of stratus was a slight cooling whereas that of cumulus clouds was a stronger cooling of the surface. On the contrary, cirrus clouds seem to have slight warming effect on the surface.The annual trends of mean monthly values of shortwave and longwave radiation balances confirmed that the measurement site is characterized by a temperate climate. Moreover, in spite of the cooling effect of clouds, a monthly radiative energy surplus is available all year long for surface–atmosphere energy exchanges. The analysis is also instrumental for the detection of SRB variations.     

Processes shaping the spatial pattern and seasonality of the surface air temperature response to anthropogenic forcing

In the period 1960–2010, the land surface air temperature (SAT) warmed more rapidly over some regions relative to the global mean. Using a set of time-slice experiments, we highlight how different physical processes shape the regional pattern of SAT warming. The results indicate an essential role of anthropogenic forcing in regional SAT changes from the 1970s to 2000s, and show that both surface–atmosphere interactions and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes can shape regional responses to forcing. Single forcing experiments show that an increase in greenhouse gases can lead to regional changes in land surface warming in winter (DJF) due to snow-albedo feedbacks, and in summer (JJA) due to soil-moisture and cloud feedbacks. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor (AA) emissions induce large spatial variations in SAT, characterized by warming over western Europe, Eurasia, and Alaska. In western Europe, SAT warming is stronger in JJA than in DJF due to substantial increases in clear sky shortwave radiation over Europe, associated with decreases in local AA emissions since the 1980s. In Alaska, the amplified SAT warming in DJF is due to increased downward longwave radiation, which is related to increased water vapor and cloud cover. In this case, although the model was able to capture the regional pattern of SAT change, and the associated local processes, it did not simulate all processes and anomalies correctly. For the Alaskan warming, the model is seen to achieve the correct regional response in the context of a wider North Pacific anomaly that is not consistent with observations. This demonstrates the importance of model evaluation that goes beyond the target variable in detection and attribution studies.     

Effects of NOxand VOCs from Five Emission Sources on Summer Surface O3 over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

The impacts of emissions from industry,power plant,transportation,residential,and biogenic sources on daily maximum surface ozone （O3DM） over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） region in North China in the summer of 2007 were examined in a modeling study.The modeling system consisted of the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model and the photochemical dispersion model,CAMx.The factor separation technique （FST） was used to quantify the effect of individual emission source types and the synergistic interactions among two or more types.Additionally,the effectiveness of emission reduction scenarios was explored.The industry,power plant,and transportation emission source types were found to be the most important in terms of their individual effects on O3DM.The key contributor to high surface O3 was power plant emissions,with a peak individual effect of 40 ppbv in the southwestern BTH area.The individual effect from the biogenic emission category was quite low.The synergistic effects from the combinations of each pair of anthropogenic emission types suppressed O3 formation,while the synergistic effects for combinations of three were favorable for O3 formation when the industrial and power plant emission source types coexisted.The quadruple synergistic effects were positive only with the combination of power plant,transportation,residential,and biogenic sources,while the quintuple synergistic effect showed only minor impacts on O3DM concentrations.A 30％ reduction in industrial and transportation sources produced the most effective impacts on O3 concentrations,with a maximum decrease of 20 ppbv.These results suggested that the synergistic impacts among emission source types should be considered when formulating emission control strategies for O3 reduction.     

Diurnal and seasonal variations of wind farm impacts on land surface temperature over western Texas

This paper analyzes seasonal and diurnal variations of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) data at ~1.1 km for the period of 2003–2011 over a region in West-Central Texas, where four of the world’s largest wind farms are located. Seasonal anomalies are created from MODIS Terra (~10:30 a.m. and 10:30 p.m. local solar time) and Aqua (~1:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. local solar time) LSTs, and their spatiotemporal variability is analyzed by comparing the LST changes between wind farm pixels (WFPs) and nearby non wind farm pixels (NNWFPs) using different methods under different quality controls. Our analyses show consistently that there is a warming effect of 0.31–0.70 °C at nighttime for the nine-year period during which data was collected over WFPs relative to NNWFPs, in all seasons for both Terra and Aqua measurements, while the changes at daytime are much noisier. The nighttime warming effect is much larger in summer than winter and at ~10:30 p.m. than ~1:30 a.m. and hence the largest warming effect is observed at ~10:30 p.m. in summer. The spatial pattern and magnitude of this warming effect couple very well with the geographic distribution of wind turbines and such coupling is stronger at nighttime than daytime and in summer than winter. Together, these results suggest that the warming effect observed in MODIS over wind farms are very likely attributable to the development of wind farms. This inference is consistent with the increasing number of operational wind turbines with time during the study period, the diurnal and seasonal variations in the frequency of wind speed and direction distribution, and the changes in near-surface atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) conditions due to wind farm operations. The nocturnal ABL is typically stable and much thinner than the daytime ABL and hence the turbine enhanced vertical mixing produces a stronger nighttime effect. The stronger wind speed and the higher frequency of the wind speed within the optimal power generation range in summer than winter and at nighttime than daytime likely drives wind turbines to generate more electricity and turbulence and consequently results in the strongest warming effect at nighttime in summer. Similarly, the stronger wind speed and the higher frequency of optimal wind speed at ~10:30 p.m. than that at ~1:30 a.m. might help explain, to some extent, why the nighttime LST warming effect is slightly larger at ~10:30 p.m. than ~1:30 a.m. The nighttime warming effect seen in spring and fall are smaller than that in summer and can be explained similarly.     

Radiative forcing and response of a GCM to ice age boundary conditions: cloud feedback and climate sensitivity

 A general circulation model is used to examine the effects of reduced atmospheric CO₂, insolation changes and an updated reconstruction of the continental ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A set of experiments is performed to estimate the radiative forcing from each of the boundary conditions. These calculations are used to estimate a total radiative forcing for the climate of the LGM. The response of the general circulation model to the forcing from each of the changed boundary conditions is then investigated. About two-thirds of the simulated glacial cooling is due to the presence of the continental ice sheets. The effect of the cloud feedback is substantially modified where there are large changes to surface albedo. Finally, the climate sensitivity is estimated based on the global mean LGM radiative forcing and temperature response, and is compared to the climate sensitivity calculated from equilibrium experiments with atmospheric CO₂ doubled from present day concentration. The calculations here using the model and palaeodata support a climate sensitivity of about 1 Wm^-2 K^-1 which is within the conventional range. Received: 8 February 1997 / Accepted: 4 June 1997     

Diurnal variations in methane emissions from West Siberia peatlands in summer

New data on the diurnal variability of methane emission in summer (2013-2014) from West Siberia peatland ecosystems are presented. It is demonstrated that diurnal variations in methane emission differ much depending on a peatland ecosystem under study. Diurnal variations in methane emission in the fens and hollows of the ridge-hollow complex (RHC) are revealed as well as their reproducibility in 2013-2014. The maximum emission is registered in the daytime, and the minimum is observed at night. There is no diurnal variation in methane emission in ryams (pine bogs) and ridges of RHC. It is revealed that in the upper layer of peat (at the depth up to 10 cm for hollows and at the depth of 2 and 5 cm for fens) the contribution of temperature variability to methane emission variations in fens and hollows is 15-20%. The multiple linear regression with peat temperature at several depths allows explaining 44-54% of the variability of methane flux from peatlands. No significant correlation between methane fluxes and the temperature of peat and air was identified in the diurnal cycle in ryams and ridges.     

Peculiarities of seasonal variations of atmospheric aerosol concentration in the surface air of Moscow environs

The seasonal variations of the concentration of particles of different sizes in the atmospheric surface layer are studied on the basis of the data of daily measurements of atmospheric aerosol characteristics in the town of Dolgoprudny (20 km from the center of Moscow) carried out in 2006–2009. It is revealed that the steady variations of monthly mean aerosol concentration are observed within the particle diameter interval of 0.02–1 μm. The annual course of concentration of these particles has two maxima, in February-March and in September–October, and one minimum in June. The concentrations of particles with the size of 0.01–0.02 μm defined by the general atmospheric background and the concentrations of particles of >1 μm associated with the local sources do not have clearly pronounced seasonal variations. It is shown that the regularities of the annual concentration variations of particles with the size of 0.02–1 μm are mainly explained by the sign and value of the lapse rate in the layer up to 925 hPa that indicates the prevalence of the vertical mixing in the processes of aerosol scattering in the surface layer as compared with the horizontal transfer.     

A model investigation of the impact of increases in anthropogenic NO x emissions between 1967 and 1980 on tropospheric ozone

Recent observations suggest that the abundance of ozone between 2 and 8 km in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased by about 12% during the period from 1970 to 1981. Earlier estimates were somewhat more conservative suggesting increases at the rate of 7% per decade since the start of regular observations in 1967. Previous photochemical model studies have indicated that tropospheric ozone concentrations would increase with increases in emissions of CO, CH₄ and NO _x . This paper presents an analysis of tropospheric ozone which suggests that a significant portion of its increase may be attributed to the increase in global anthropogenic NO _x emissions during this period while the contribution of CH₄ to the increase is quite small. Two statistical models are presented for estimating annual global anthropogenic emissions of NO _x and are used to derive the trend in the emissions for the years 1966–1980. These show steady increase in the emissions during this interval except for brief periods of leveling off after 1973 and 1978. The impact of this increase in emissions on ozone is estimated by calculations with a onedimensional (latitudinal) model which includes coupled tropospheric photochemistry and diffusive meridional transport. Steady-state photochemical calculations with prescribed NO _x emissions appropriate for 1966 and 1980 indicate an ozone increase of 8–11% in the Northern Hemisphere, a result which is compatible with the rise in ozone suggested by the observations.     

Present-day contribution of anthropogenic emissions from China to the global burden and radiative forcing of aerosol and ozone

The effect of anthropogenic emissions from China on global burdens of ozone, sulphate, organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) aerosols is examined, using the three-dimensional chemistry transport model Oslo CTM2. Two model simulations were performed, the first with global present-day emissions and the second with the anthropogenic emissions from China set to their pre-industrial levels. The global radiative forcing for these species is then calculated. Industrial emissions from China are found to account for a 4–5% increase in the global burden of OC aerosol, the change in secondary organic aerosol being slightly less than that of primary organic aerosol. A 10% increase in the global sulphate aerosol burden is calculated, and the increase in BC is 23%. The global radiative forcing of aerosols from China was calculated to be −62, −3.7, −13 and 89 mW m⁻², for sulphate, secondary organic, primary organic and BC aerosols, respectively. The increase in ozone causes a forcing of 77 mW m⁻².     

Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.