Amplitude and phase of the 11-yr term in sea-level: Europe

Summary. The 11-yr solar cycle term in sea-level is further elucidated by single-and two-channel high resolution signal processing techniques applied to 37 European height H of sea-level records. In agreement with earlier analysis the period and amplitude are 10.6 ± 0.3 yr and 10.3 ± 4.8 mm. New results are as follows: in view of the recently detected 11-yr term in Earth rotation Δ T = ET — UT, cross-spectra of the H records with Δ T were computed. At the solar cycle period H lags Δ T by 0.7 ± 0.5 yr; since AT lags the change in length of day Δ(10 d) by 2.7 yr the result is that H lags Δ(10 d) by 3.4 ± 0.5 yr. The continuum spectrum of H and Δ T has a high coherency and zero phase from the solar cycle down to a period of 40 yr, although this relation cannot be causal. We propose that the circumpolar vortex of westerly winds is the common forcing function for the H and Δ T discrete solar cycle signal and a significant portion of the long-period continuum in European waters.     

HOLOCENE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE DENMARK STRAIT REGION - A LAND-SEA CORRELATION OF NEW AND EXISTING CLIMATE PROXY RECORDS

ABSTRACT. Two well dated Holocene sediment records bordering the Denmark Strait region have been used to reconstruct past climate variability. The content of biogenic silica, classic and organic material and moss in a lacustrine record from Lake N14 has been used to infer past variability in precipitation and temperature in southern Greenland. Sedimentologic and petrologic composition of sand in a shelf sediment record from the Djúpáll trough is used to infer past variability in the northwestern storm activity on northwestern Iceland, which probably also affected the inflow of polar waters from the East Greenland Current. Our evaluation of these records with a number of previous studies from the region documents Holocene climatic optimum conditions peaking between 8000 and 6500 calendar years before present (cal yr BP). Mid-Holocene climate deterioration set in around 5000 cal yr BP followed by a further marked setback around 3500 cal yr BP. A stacking of climate variability on a centennial timescale from previous studies in the area shows a fairly good correspondence to the timing of marked cold and warm events as evidenced from the Lake N14 and the Djúpáll trough records. Cooler periods are explained as the response to marked incursions of ice-laden polar water from the Arctic Ocean to the Denmark Strait region. Cool northerly and northwesterly winds along the East Greenland coast in relation to frequent strong atmospheric low pressure in the Barents Sea, coupled with strong high pressure over Greenland, would have favoured southward export of polar waters. A comparison with the proxy records of nuclide production (¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be) suggests that solar activity may have had some influence on the atmospheric pressure distribution in the Denmark Strait region.     

Stacking for the frequencies and Qs of 0S0 and 1S0

Summary. Using nine IDA records for the Indonesian earthquake of 1977 August 19, we have formed an optimal linear combination of the records and have measured the frequency and Q of ₀ S ₀ and ₁ S ₀. The frequency was measured using the moment ratio method. The attenuation was measured by the minimum width method and by the time-lapse method. The frequency and attenuation were measured simultaneously by varying them to obtain a best fit to the data. A 2000-hr stack, the sum of nine individual records, for ₀ S ₀ gave a frequency of 0.814664 mHz±4 ppm. The values for the Q of ₀ S ₀ for the three different methods of measurement were 5600,5833 and 5700, respectively. The error in the estimates of Q ^-1 is about 5 per cent for the minimum power method. For ₁ S ₀ a 300-hr stack yielded a frequency of 1.63151 mHz±30 ppm. The values of Q for this mode were 1960, 1800 and 1850, respectively, with an error in Q ^-1 of about 12 per cent for the minimum power method.     

On the linear relation between mb and Ms for discrimination between explosions and earthquakes

Summary. The statistical capability of the m _b: M _s discriminant for the discrimination of earthquake and explosion populations is examined by application of discriminant functions to a group of 83 explosions and 72 earthquakes in Eurasia. Equations are derived for the probability that an event is an earthquake or an explosion. The positive sign of DIS in the decision index equation, DIS _i = 34.3383 – 11.9569 mb _t + 7.1161 M _si , indicates that the event i is an earthquake. Its negative sign indicates that event i is an explosion. The probability of correct classification for an event, P _i , is related to its DIS _i value, by P _i = [1-exp (DIS _i )]⁻¹, where a large, positive DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an earthquake and a large, negative DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an explosion. The discrimination line M _s = 1.680 m _b– 4.825, or m _b= 0.595 M _s+ 2.872 very successfully separates the explosion population from the earthquake population. The points on this line have an equal chance of being an earthquake or an explosion; moreover, for any event, the distance parallel to the M _s-axis from the point representing that event in the m _b: M _s plane to this line is a measure of the probability for the correct classification of that event.     

Detection of the 11 yr sunspot cycle signal in Earth rotation

Summary. A two-channel MESA or maximum entropy spectrum analysis (Morf et al. 1978) between Δ T °= ET – UT (Morrison 1973) and sunspot numbers spanning 1832–1975 yields the following results over a bandwidth 2–20yr: (1) The spectra of Δ T ° and sunspot numbers are both dominated by a narrow band signal at 11.0 yr; (2) On average the coherency over the continuum is 0.14 while at 11.0yr it peaks at 0.83; (3) The 11-yr sunspot cycle signal in length of day (lod) has an amplitude of 0.16 ms, and in time lags that in sunspot numbers by 3.4yr. Estimates obtained from segmenting the series yield extremal values which grossly bound the above estimates: The narrow band signal has period range (10.5–11.4yr) coherency (0.8–1.0), amplitude (0.06–0.31 ms), and time lag (3.0–3.Syr). In addition, a two channel analysis of sunspot numbers with a new Δ T ⁿ series from 1861–1978 (Morrison 1979) and an earlier segment of Δ T °, as well as a single-channel analysis of Δ T ° and Δ T ⁿ individually, further support the conclusion that the solar sunspot cycle in Earth rotation has been detected. These experimental results have implications in astronomy, solar physics, meteorology and climatology.     

On analysis and prediction of tides on the west coast of Great Britain

Summary. Long-period tidal records from eight ports on the west coast of Great Britain are analysed, using both the harmonic method and the response function. Time series up to 9.5 yr were used so that fine structure of certain regions of high energy in the tidal residual spectrum may be examined. This also assisted in accurate separation of tides from surges. According to the currently accepted formulation of M₁, its composition is not compatible with its actual composition in the real tide and, as such, has no useful purpose to serve in computation of predictions. Constituents Sa, Ssa, MA, and MB, are adversly affected by weather and long records are essential for their accurate separation. It has been observed that annual perturbations of S₂, similar to those confirmed in recent years for M₂, also exist but these are not readily recognisable because their speeds are the same as those of constituents T₂ and R₂. These perturbations, being highly sensitive to meteorological forces, are mainly responsible for cusps or humps in the vicinity of major tidal constituents in tidal residual spectra. The relationship of radiational and gravitational tides is found to be in very good agreement with theoretical results. In summer months non-predictable variance reduces to about half of the annual variance, reflecting the regional weather conditions of summer and winter.     

Coercive force of single crystals of magnetite at low temperatures

The temperature dependence of coercive force H _c was studied on well-characterized and stoichiometric millimetre-sized single crystals of magnetite at a series of 16 temperatures from 300 to 10 K using a SQUID magnetometer. H _c decreases gradually with cooling to the isotropic temperature, T _i = 130 K, where the first magnetocrystalline anisotropy constant K ₁ becomes zero. H _c exhibits a sharp increase at the Verwey transition, T _v = 120 K, where the structure changes from cubic to monoclinic. In crossing the Verwey transition, H _c increases by more than two orders of magnitude, from 20 μT to 2.4 mT, and the shape of the hysteresis loops becomes wasp-waisted.
Observed coercivity between 300 K and 170 K varies with temperature as λ _s / M _s , where λ _s is the magnetostriction constant and M _s is the saturation magnetization, indicating that the coercivity in MD magnetite is controlled mainly by internal stress associated with dislocations or other crystal defects. It seems likely that the stable single-domain-like magnetic memory observed in large MD magnetite crystals is due to magnetoelastically pinned domain walls. The discontinuous change in H _c at the Verwey transition is controlled by abrupt changes in magnetocrystalline and magnetostriction constants due to crystal deformation from cubic to monoclinic structure.     

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

Potential and actual trace gas fluxes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems

This paper provides an overview of results obtained through a number of studies of actual and potential trace gas exchanges in Eurasian and Greenlandic tundra ecosystems. The chief findings include:
i) Long-term accumulation rates of carbon in organic tundra soils, i.e. net uptake of atmospheric CO₂, are strongly controlled by simple climatic parameters (mean July temperature, annual precipitation). Warmer and wetter conditions stimulate carbon sequestration rates in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems.
ii) The release of carbon through ecosystem respiration is also heavily influenced by climate. However, the release of dead organic soil carbon as CO₂ is constraind by the lability of the stored organic compounds. This lability decreases significantly with depth (i.e. age) of the soils; moreover, this in turn decreases the temperature sensitivity of the decomposition process.
iii) Methane emissions from typical tundra habitats in northern Eurasia are slightly lower than from seemingly similar habitats in North America although this difference probably can be attributed to the colder climatic setting of the studied sites compared with the general climatic conditions at the North American sites. There is a strong linkage between CO₂ exchange, CH₄ formation and emission rates in some wet tundra ecosystems.
iv) Atmospheric uptake of CH₄ occurs in some dry and mesic tundra habitats and there are indications that these uptake rates could be affected negatively by atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Emissions of N₂O are rarely seen fromArctic soils but there appear to be a strong potential for denitrification and, hence, N₂O release. This might be due to high rates of denitrification during the spring thaw and possibly associated significant releases of N₂O in this period.     

The 2003 Mw 7.2 Fiordland subduction earthquake, New Zealand: aftershock distribution, main shock fault plane and static stress changes on the overlying Alpine Fault

The 2003 August 21 Fiordland earthquake ( M _L7.0, M _W7.2) was the largest earthquake to occur in New Zealand for 35 yr and the fifth of M6+ associated with shallow subduction in Fiordland in the last 15 yr. The aftershocks are diffuse and do not distinguish between the two possible main shock fault planes implied by the Harvard CMT solution, one corresponding to subduction interface thrusting and the other corresponding to steeply seaward dipping thrusting. The distinction is important for calculating the induced stress changes on the overlying Alpine Fault which has a history of very large earthquakes, the last possibly in 1717. We have relocated the aftershocks, using data from temporary seismographs in the epicentral region and the double difference technique. We then use the correlation between aftershock hypocentres and regions of positive changes in Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) due to various candidate main shock fault planes to argue for concentrated slip on the shallow landward dipping subduction interface. Average changes in CFS on the offshore segments of the Alpine Fault are then negative, retarding any future large events. In our models the change in CFS is evaluated on faults of optimal orientation in the regional stress field as determined by inversion of P -wave polarities.     

A diurnal resonance in the ocean tide and in the Earth's load response due to the resonant free 'core nutation'

Summary. The luni-solar forced nutations and body tide are believed to be resonant at frequencies near (1 + 1/460) cycle sidereal day⁻¹ as seen from the rotating Earth. This resonance is due to the Earth's rotating, elliptical fluid core. We show here that tides in the open ocean and the Earth's response to those tides must also be resonant at (1 + 1/460) cycle day⁻¹. We examine these resonant oceanic effects on the Earth's nutational motion and on the body tide. Effects on the forced nutations might be as large as 0.002 arcsec at 18.6 yr. The effects on the observed resonance in the body tide are more important. For tidal gravity, for example, the difference between K ₁ and 0 ¹ which is usually used to determine the resonance, can be perturbed by 30 per cent or more due to the oceanic resonance effects.     

Tidal gravity in Britain: tidal loading and the spatial distribution of the marine tide

Summary. Tidal gravity measurements have been made at six sites in Britain with two nulled LaCoste and Romberg Earth tide gravitymeters. The M ₂ observations from these and two further sites are compared with calculations of the tidal loading from the seas around the British Isles and the major oceans. Models of the M ₂ marine tides are convolved with Green's functions for appropriate radially stratified Earth models. The differences between the M ₂ observations and the theoretical calculations are less than 0.6 μ gals and it is shown that these differences contain further information concerning the errors in the marine tide models. The M ₂ marine tides on the north-west European continental shelf are reasonably well known and this allows a useful test of the feasibility of using tidal gravity measurements for the inverse ocean tide problem in areas where the ocean tides are less well known. The differential gravity loading signal between pairs of gravity stations is shown to be important for considerations of the uniqueness and accuracy of the inverse problem. M ₂ tidal gravity loading maps for the British Isles and Europe have been produced which are of use in making corrections to various geodetic measurements.     

The influence of barometric-pressure variations on gravity

Summary. The superconducting gravimeter has been used to measure the influence of barometric pressure on gravity in the frequency range 0.1–10 cycles/day. These measurements show that the incoherent barometric fluctuations are the major cause of random fluctuations in local gravity and account for much of the 'noise' on our gravimeter records. A simple model has been constructed which adequately explains the response of gravity to the local pressure fluctuations. These measurements also show a response to the global atmospheric tides at S ₁ and S ₂ which is much larger than the response to local fluctuations. Although this behaviour is most likely due to the response of the world-wide oceans to the atmospheric tides, no theoretical model has yet been constructed.     

Detailed gravity-tide spectrum between one and four cycles per day

Summary. The results of previous work by the authors is used to remove most of the effects of ocean and atmospheric loading from an 18-month Earth gravity-tide record. The remaining signal is examined for additional influence of ocean and atmosphere and for evidence of the frequency-dependence of the response of the solid earth. Variations in time of the measured tides are shown to result from the atmospheric tide at S ₂ and appear to result from variations in ocean tides at other frequencies. The frequency-dependence of the solid earth response near 1 cycle per siderial day is found to be consistent with the nearly diurnal free wobble. However, the influence of the ocean on the small but crucial Ψ₁ tide is uncertain. Anomalous responses are observed at several other frequencies but except for the case of ρ₁ it is argued that anomalous ocean tides are plausible and could therefore explain the observations.     

Further evidence for oceanic excitation of polar motion

While the role of the atmosphere in driving variations in polar motion is well established, the importance of the oceans has been recognized only recently. Further evidence for the role of the oceans in the excitation of polar motion is presented. To estimate the equatorial excitation functions, χ ₁ and χ ₂ , for the ocean, we use velocity and mass fields from a constant-density ocean model, driven by observed surface wind stresses and atmospheric pressure, for the period 1993–1995; comparison with similar functions derived from a more complex density-stratified ocean model indicates the effectiveness of the simple constant-density modelling approach. Corresponding atmospheric excitation functions are computed from NCEP/NCAR re-analyses. Results indicate significant improvements in the agreement with the observed polar motion excitation when the simulated oceanic effects are added to atmospheric excitation. Correlations between the polar motion and the geophysical signals at periods of 15–150 days increase from 0.53 to 0.80 and from 0.75 to 0.88 for χ ₁ and χ ₂ , respectively. The oceanic signals are particularly important for seasonal variations in χ ₁ (correlation increases from 0.28 to 0.85 when oceanic excitation is included). A positive impact of the oceans on more rapid polar motion is also observed, up to periods as short as 5 days. The sensitivity of the results to different forcing fields and different amounts of friction in the oceans is also discussed.     

Seismic image of a CO2 reservoir beneath a seismically active volcano

Mammoth Mountain is a seismically active volcano 200 000 to 50 000 years old, situated on the southwestern rim of Long Valley caldera, California. Since 1989 it has shown evidence of unrest in the form of earthquake swarms (Hill et al. 1990), volcanic 'long-period' earthquakes (Pitt & Hill 1994), increased output of magmatic ³He (Sorey et al. 1993) and the emission of about 500 tonnes day ⁻¹ of CO₂ (Farrar et al. 1995; Hill 1996; M. Sorey, personal communication, 1997), which has killed trees and poses a threat to human safety. Local-earthquake tomography shows that in mid-1989 areas of subsequent tree-kill were underlain by extensive regions where the ratio of the compressional and shear elastic-wave speeds V_P/V_S was about 9 per cent lower than in the surrounding rocks. Theory (Mavko & Mukerji 1995), experiment (Ito, DeVilbiss & Nur 1979), and experience at other geothermal/volcanic areas (Julian et al. 1996) and at petroleum reservoirs (Harris et al. 1996) indicate that V_P/V_S is sensitive to pore-fluid compressibility, through its effect on V_P . The observed V_P/V_S anomaly is probably caused directly by CO₂, and seismic V_P/V_S tomography is thus a promising tool for monitoring gas concentration and movement in volcanoes, which may in turn be related to volcanic activity.     

Carbon fluxes in the Arctic Ocean—potential impact by climate change

Because of its ice cover the central Arctic Ocean has not been considered as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide. With recent observations of decreasing ice cover there is the potential for an increased air–sea carbon dioxide flux. Though the sensitivity of the carbon fluxes to a climate change can at present only be speculated, we know the responses to some of the forcing, including: melting of the sea ice cover make the air–sea flux operate towards equilibrium; increased temperature of the surface water will decrease the solubility and thus the air-sea flux; and an open ocean might increase primary production through better utilization of the nutrients.
The potential change in air-sea CO₂ fluxes caused by different forcing as a result of climate change is quantified based on measured data. If the sea ice melts, the top 100 m water column of the Eurasian Basin has, with the present conditions, a potential to take up close to 50 g C m⁻². The freshening of the surface water caused by a sea ice melt will increase the CO₂ solubility corresponding to an uptake of ∼ g C m⁻², while a temperature increase of 1°C in the same waters will out-gas 8 g C m⁻², and a utilization of all phosphate will increase primary production by 75 g C m⁻².     

Three-dimensional VP and VP /VS models of the upper crust in the Friuli area (northeastern Italy)

3-D images of P velocity and P - to S -velocity ratio have been produced for the upper crust of the Friuli area (northeastern Italy) using local earthquake tomography. The data consist of 2565 P and 930 S arrival times of high quality. The best-fitting V _P and V _P / V _S 1-D models were computed before the 3-D inversion. V _P was measured on two rock samples representative of the investigated upper layers of the Friuli crust. The tomographic V _P model was used for modelling the gravity anomalies, by converting the velocity values into densities along three vertical cross-sections. The computed gravity anomalies were optimized with respect to the observed gravity anomalies. The crust investigated is characterized by sharp lateral and deep V _P and V _P / V _S anomalies that are associated with the complex geological structure. High V _P / V _S values are associated with highly fractured zones related to the main faulting pattern. The relocated seismicity is generally associated with sharp variations in the V _P / V _S anomalies. The V _P images show a high-velocity body below 6 km depth in the central part of the Friuli area, marked also by strong V _P / V _S heterogeneities, and this is interpreted as a tectonic wedge. Comparison with the distribution of earthquakes supports the hypothesis that the tectonic wedge controls most of the seismicity and can be considered to be the main seismogenic zone in the Friuli area.     

Rayleigh-wave amplitudes from earthquakes in the range 0–150°

Summary . Vertical component Rayleigh-wave amplitudes from 1461 shallow earthquakes recorded in the distance range 0–150° are analysed to separate the effects of earthquake size, epicentral distance (Δ) and recording station.
The estimated decay of amplitude with distance has the form of a theoretical curve for the decay of Rayleigh waves with distance if the assumption is made that the decay due to dispersion for the data analysed is that of an Airy phase. Writing the decay due to anelastic attenuation as exp (- k Δ), k is estimated to be 0.676/rad over the whole range of distance. If the distance effects are represented by a straight line of the form h log Δ+ constant, h is estimated to be 1.15. The calibration function for computing M _s derived from the estimated distance effects is very similar to that of Marshall & Basham.
Station effects on Rayleigh-wave amplitudes though statistically significant are small, and can probably be ignored in the computation of M _s.
Comparing the estimated surface-wave magnitudes (earthquake size) obtained in this study with the long and short period body-wave magnitudes ( m ^LP_b and m ^SP_b respectively) obtained by Booth, Marshall & Young for the same earthquake shows that m ^LP_b is about equal to M _s over the magnitude range of interest (˜4.0–7.0). The m ^LP_b and M_s relationship shows that the greater the long-period energy radiated by an earthquake the smaller proportionately is the short-period energy.     

The tidal dynamics of the Irish and Celtic Seas

Summary. Current meter data collected over periods of more than 14 day from the Irish and Celtic Seas are harmonically analysed and presented in maps of tidal stream information. Making use of the analysed current data, and by constructing time series of frictional and inertial stresses which are also harmonically analysed, harmonic constituents of the surface tidal slopes at current meter stations are obtained. Using these with data collected from offshore tide gauges, and in conjunction with coastal tide data, cotidal maps are drawn with some confidence for M ₂, S ₂, O ₁ and K ₁, the M ₂ chart resolving the discrepancy which exists between the different charts of the Celtic Sea already produced. Cotidal maps for M ₃ and M ₄ are also presented.
The mean over a tidal cycle of the energy flux for M ₂, S ₂ and O ₁ is also presented in the form of the total energy flux in these constituents which crosses different sectional lines. A flux of 44 × 10⁶ kW is observed to enter the Celtic Sea from the Atlantic and this is compared with previous estimates. An energy budget is also performed for M ₂, including all the effects of astronomical forcing and Earth tides to enable comparison to be made between the true energy inflow and the estimated frictional dissipation. Finally, comparison is made between the mean of the instantaneous energy flux and the sum of the energy fluxes associated with the major harmonics.