IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON FLOOD AND WATER LOGGING DISASTERS IN LIXIAHE REGION

ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩＳＡＳＴＥＲＳＩＮＬＩＸＩＡＨＥＲＥＧＩＯＮ许朋柱ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩ...     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

EFFECT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON DISASTROUS FLOODS IN THE TAIHU LAKE LOWER REACH DEPRESSIONS AND COUNTERMEASURES

Use of numerical simulation of the tidal flow of the Changjiang River Estuary and the HuangpuRiver to forecast flood in the Taihu Lake lower reach drainage system for the case of future sea level riseof 0.4 m and 0.8 m,and floods preventing and reducing methods are discussed in this paper.     

Influence of sea level rise on Shanghai astronomical tide and storm surge and estimation of probable water level

reODUCTIONSthtrendanditsinfluencehaveattiactedInanresearchersinrecentyears.He(l994)exPloredthePOssibleeffectofSLRonZhuiang(Pear)fuverdeltaSSbyusingarelativelysimPletecboqUeofcollatingfutUreSthincrementswithrecenily-measuredtidalcharaCteristicvalues.Pengetal.(l994)usedasindlaraPProachtoinvestigatetheSthinf[uenceonTianinSS.SthhasqUitepronouncedimPatontheinteractionbetweenSSandATinshallowwater-SSandATgenesisaxegrealyinfluencedbylocalwaterdepthandtOpography-TocoPewiththenonlinearr…     

Impacts of sea level rise on coastal erosion in the Changjiang River delta and north Jiangsu coastal plain

At present, approximately 36% of coasts are experiencing net erosion in the Changjiang River delta and the north Jiangsu coastal plain. Future sea level rise will accelerate the process of coastal erosion. According to the ratio of the calculated value of coast retreat by Bruun rule to the estimated value by using measured data, the proportion affected by sea level rise in total coastal erosion has been estimated in this paper. When sea level rises by 20cm, the proportion determined by sea level rise will increase from 1.0% at present to 2.2% in the future in the coasts of abandoned Huanghe River delta and from 8.5%–9.6% to 13.5%–15.2% in the north and south banks of the Changjiang River delta. This result is lower than that from the similar research in the world, and this phenomenon is related with the special development process of the coasts in this area. The mechanism of accelerating coastal erosion by sea level rise is that sea level is will increase the intensity of tidal current, wave and storm surge and decrease the ability to reduce the force of waves on the tidal flat and coastal wetland due to the loss of their areas. Therefore, the length of erosion coasts will increase, the sedimentation rate of accretion coasts will decrease or even turn accretion into erosion, the width of tidal flat will reduce and coastal slope will increase. So the project of coastal protection of this area must be reinforced. Project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NEOTECTONICS

A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.     

Relative sea level rise and its effects on environment and resources in China’s coastal areas

Due to global climate warming and natural and man-made land subsidence etc., relative sea level rise in the coastal plains of China will exceed 2–3 times over the golbal mean value during the first half part of the 21st century. It will result in a series of adverse impacts on evolution of natural environment and socioeconomic development of the coastal area. This paper analyses environmental and resource effects induced by relative sea level rise in China’s coastal areas on the basis of rough estimate of future relative sea level rise. These effects include inundating tidal flat and wetlands and increase in inundated risk of coastal habitable land, exacerbating storm surge. coastal erosion, flooding and salt water intrusion hazards, as well as endangering land, water, tourism and living resources and their utilization.     

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on regional sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean from 1993 to 2012

The rate of regional sea level rise(SLR) provides important information about the impact of human activities on climate change.However,accurate estimation of regional SLR can be severely affected by sea surface height(SSH) change caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO-SSH).Here,the PDOSSH signal is extracted from satellite altimeter data by multi-variable linear regression,and regional SLR in the altimeter era is calculated,before and after removing that signal.The results show that PDO-SSH trends are rising in the western Pacific and falling in the eastern Pacific,with the strongest signal confined to the tropical and North Pacific.Over the past 20 years,the PDO-SSH accounts for about 30%-40%of altimeter-observed SLR in the regions 8°-15°N,130°-160°E and 30°-40°N,170°-220°E.Along the coast of North America,the PDO-SSH signal dramatically offsets the coastal SLR,as the sea level trends change sign from falling to rising.     

Assessment of waterlogging risk in Lixiahe region of Jiangsu Province based on AVHRR and MODIS image

Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on waterlogging affected frequency, waterlogging hazard of pixel scale was assessed. According to the weighed score of area percentage of different waterlogging affected frequency in 13 counties/cities of Lixiahe region, waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. Waterlogging affected frequency map and 1 km× 1 km grid landuse map were used to assess waterlogging risk of pixel scale; and then waterlogging risk rank of every county/city was assessed by the similar method by which waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. High risk region is located mainly in core zone of Lixiahe hinterland, medium risk region is adjacent to high risk region, and low risk region is located in the most outlying area of risk zone and mainly in south to middle part of Lixiahe region. Xinghua and Gaoyou belong to high risk city, Jiangyan belongs to medium risk city, and the other counties/cities have low or lower waterlogging risk. The method of assessing waterlogging risk in this paper is simple and applicable. This paper can provide guidance for the waterlogging risk analysis in broader area of Huaihe River Basin.     

Long term sea level change and water mass balance in the South China Sea

Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993–2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea. The altimeter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of (3.5±0.9) mm yr-1 during the period 1993–2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly d...     

The interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An ‘enigma’ is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977–1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945–1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.     

Environmental features and water environmental problems in the contiguous region of Jiangsu, Shangdong, Henan and Anhui Provinces

ThecontiguousregionofJiangsu,Shandong,HenanandAnhuiprovinces,withapopulationof4660X10'in1990,stretchingalongtheChina'seasternsectionofeconomicbeltofnewEurasialxindBridge,issituatedinthenortheasternpartoftheHuaiheRiverBasin,covering7.73X10'km'ofnineprefecturesormunicipalities,i.e.,XuzhouandLianyungangofJiangsuProvince,Rizhao,Linyi,ZaozhuangandJiningofShandongProvince,ShangqiuofHenanProvince,HuaibeiandSuxianofAnhuiProvince.Theregionisatraditionalagricultureareaandanimportantenergybase…     

RESEARCH ON SYSTEM OF FLOOD DISASTER CONTROL AND REDUCTION SUPPORTED BY GIS IN MEDIUM AND SMALL BASINS

Southeast China coastal areas belong to subtropical monsoon climatic zone,thus easily affected by floods resulted from typhoons and rainstorm.Since the areas of river basins are small,rivers flood regulation capacities are low,and therefore flood hazard is grave.In the paper,taking the Yongjiang basin in southeast China as an example,the approaches and methods of geographic information system(GIS) applied to flood disaster control and reduction research on small basin are explred.On GIS help the rainfall-runoff calculation model and the river dchannel flood routing model are developed.And the evaluating flood submerged are and the damage assessment models are built supported by digit elevation models.Lastly the decision support system on GIS supported for flood control in research basin has been set up.This greatly improves flood-proofing decision-making capacities in river basin,and provides valuable information and a mode for flood prevention and reduction in the medium and small basin .Meanwhile,the research indicates that technologies of GIS provide a powerful tool for flood disaster control.     

Forecast of impacts of sea-level rise on the low colonized islands and their surrounding waters in the Changjiang River mouth

Thethreatagainstthecoastallowlandcausedbysea-levelriseisoneofthefocusesoftheworid'sat-tention.Thebestestimatevalueofglobaltheoreticalsea-levelriseinthe2lstcenturyisO.66m(SCOR,l99l)byworldwideauthoritativeorganizationsuchasIPCC(IntergovernmentPanelofClimateChange)etal.ThecrustofChangiiangDeltaissubsiding.Theaveragesubsidencerateinthelast2OOOaisl.2mm/a(PANetal.,l985).TheislandsoftheChangiiangRivermouthareaccumulatinglowlandislandsandtheirnat-uralelevationisbelowthehightidallevelofsprin…     

Relationship between changes of river-lake networks and water levels in typical regions of Taihu Lake Basin, China

The typical regions of the Taihu Lake Basin,China,were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of river-lake networks under intensive human activities.The characteristics of the fractal dimension of river networks and lakes for different periods were investigated and the influences of river system evolution on water level changes were further explored through the comparison of their fractal characters.The results are as follows:1) River network development of the study area is becoming more monotonous and more simple;the number of lakes is reducing significantly,and the water surface ratio has dropped significantly since the 1980s.2) The box dimension of the river networks in all the cities of the study area decreased slowly from the 1960s to the 1980s,while the decrease was significant from the 1980s to the 2000s.The variations of lake correlation dimension are similar to those of the river network box dimensions.This is unfavorable for the storage capacity of the river networks and lakes.3) The Hurst exponents of water levels were all between 0.5 and 1.0 from the 1960s to the 1980s,while decreased in the 2000s,indicating the decline in persistence and increase in the complexity of water level series.The paper draws a conclusion that the relationship between the fractal dimension of river-lake networks and the Hurst exponents of the water level series can reveal the impacts of river system changes on flood disasters to some extent:the disappearance of river networks and lakes will increase the possibility of flood occurrence.     

Characteristics of water transformation and its effects on environment in the arid region

The characteristics of water balance in arid regions is that the streams are formed in mountain area and continuously evaporates and infiltrates in the process of flowing to plain area, streams finally disappear in the desert or flow into the lakes, which are the low reaches of the rivers. But the distribution and transformation of water in Xinjiang, China have changed under the influences of human activities. The influences of human activities take place in a short time and regionally, especially in arid land where water is the key factor of environment. Water inside of oasis has increased, and water out of oasis or at the lower reaches of the river has decreased. Human activities have caused the environment changes in both positive and negative aspects by changing the circulation and distribution of water. Under the influence of human activities, oases in Xinjiang have expanded, meanwhile some lakes have contracted desertification is serious, natural vegetation has declined and natural environment out of oasis has degenrated. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(49771009). Biography: LI Xin(1940 -), male, a native of Anhui Province, professor. His research interest includes water resources.     

利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星探测黄河流域水储量能力及极端气候发生的可能性

基于2004~2021年GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据反演黄河流域陆地水储量时空变化,并构建干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型,对黄河流域的极端气候现象进行分析研究。结果表明,2004~2021年黄河流域的陆地水储量以0.56 cm/a的速度减少,具有明显的季节周期性特征,在夏季和秋季呈盈余状态,春季和冬季呈亏损状态;干旱指数模型监测到期间黄河流域发生极度干旱事件22次、重度干旱事件37次,干旱事件范围涵盖整个黄河流域;洪水因子模型探测到黄河流域共发生洪水事件118次,多出现在夏季和秋季雨水较为丰沛的时候,期间黄河流域陆地水储量能力较弱,降雨量增大。利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据构建的干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型探测的气象结果与实际观测结果较为符合,能真实反映黄河流域发生的极端气候,可为极端气候研究提供有利工具。     

Studies on the phosphorus requirement and proper calcium/phosphorus ratio in the diet of the black sea bream (Sparus macrocephalus)

An expriment on the phosphorus requirement and the proper Ca/P ratio in the diet of the black sea bream using the phosphorus gradient method (with casein as basic diet, sodium dihydrogen phosphate as source of phosphorus, and calcium lactate as source of calcium) showed that growth was greatly affected by the diet's phosphorus content and Ca/P ratio. Inadequate phosphorus in the diet resulted in slow growth and poor food conversion ratio (FCR). Analyses of the fish body showed it contained a high level of lipid but a low level of moisture, ash, calcium and phosphorus. The optimal values of phosphorus and Ca/P ratio in the black sea bream diet are 0.68% and 1∶2 respectively. Phosphorus in excess of this optimum value resulted in slow growth or even death. The results of this experiment clearly indicated that phosphorus is the principal mineral additive affecting black sea bream growth. Contribution No. 1972 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica.     

Road impacts on spatial patterns of land use and landscape fragmentation in three parallel rivers region, Yunnan Province, China

The structure and function of network is a central issue in landscape ecology.Road networks with hierarchical structure are crucial for understanding landscape dynamics.In this study,we compared the distribution of national road,provincial road,county road and rural road in the Three Parallel Rivers Region(TPRR)in Yunnan Province of China,and estimated the effect of roads(and other factors)on the spatial patterns of land use and land cover with logistic regression.In addition,we analyzed the land use and land cover change(LUCC)and landscape fragmentation in 1989–2005 along a buffer zone of the primary traffic corridor,national road G214.The results showed that,county and rural roads had much higher percentage of length extending into more natural habitats at higher elevation and steeper slope,compared with the higher level roads in this region.While the distributions of natural land cover types were dominated by environmental factors,human land use types i.e.,building land and farmland types were significantly related with roads,linking more closely with lower level roads.The LUCC dynamics(1989–2005)of the G214 buffer zone showed a general trend of land transformation from conifer forests and valley arid shrubs to building land and farmland,and from ice and snow to alpine shrubs and forests.With the length of G214 unchanged during the time,the overall landscape pattern changed little in the buffer zone,but habitat fragmentation and area decrease had occurred for the natural vegetation types,in contrast to patch mergence and expansion of human land use types,and landscape fragmentation was intensified above 2500 m a.s.l.but declined below the elevation.The results indicated the dynamics of landscape composition and patch type level distribution in spite of the stability of the overall landscape pattern,and implied the potential role of roads,especially the low level roads on landscape changes.