Research on nonlinear R／S method and its application in earthquake prediction

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＲ／ＳｍｅｔｈｏｄａｎｄｉｔｓｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＢｉ－ＱｕａｎＷＡＮＧ（王碧泉）；Ｈａｎ－ＭｉｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄汉明）；Ｈｏｎｇ－ＳｈｕｎＦＡＮ（范洪顺）；Ｃｈｕｅｎ...     

Three-dimensional viscoelastic LDDA method and its application in geoscience

Introduction A lot of work has been done in studying geological problems in terms of finite-element method (FEM). Assuming the material of fault as a perfect plastic one, WANG, et al (1980, 1982) simulated the transference of the larger earthquakes in North China by elasto-plastic FEM, the earthquakes are simulated by reducing frictional coefficients of the fault. YIN and ZHANG (1982) investigated the instability of earthquakes by FEM with strain-softening material model. WANG and C…     

The numerical method of Fourier eigen transform and its application in seismicity analysis

ＴｈｅｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＦｏｕｒｉｅｒｅｉｇｅｎｔｒａｎｓｆｏｒｍａｎｄｉｔｓａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＢＩＮＧＣＨＥＮ１）（陈兵）ＺＨＩ－ＺＨＥＮＺＨＥＮＧ２）（郑治真）ＺＡＩ－ＳＥＮＪＩＡＮＧ...     

Tunnel seismic tomography method for geological prediction and its application

Typical existing methods of tunnel geological prediction include negative apparent velocity, horizontal seismic profile, and the Tunnel Seismic Prediction （TSP） method as this technology is under development at home and abroad. Considering simpler observational methods and data processing, it is hard to accurately determine the seismic velocity of the wall rock in the front of the tunnel face. Therefore, applying these defective methods may result in inaccurate geological inferences which will not provide sufficient evidence for classifying the wall rock characteristics. This paper proposes the Tunnel Seismic Tomography （TST） method using a spatial observation arrangement and migration and travel time inversion image processing to solve the problem of analyzing the velocity structure of wall rock in the front of the tunnel face and realize accurate imaging of the geological framework of the tunnel wall rock. This method is very appropriate for geological prediction under complex geological conditions.     

Analysis and application of pseudo-offset method in the converted-wave prestack time migration

Pseudo-offset migration （POM） is a new method for prestack time migration of converted waves that improves on equivalent-offset migration （EOM）. The mapping of POM is different than EOM but the purpose of the two methods is to map the input samples to the common conversion scatter point （CCSP） gathers. This paper introduces the principles of the two migration methods and model parameter sensitivity tests for both POM and EOM. At large offset-to-depth ratios the hyperbolic approximation, the three-term approximation and the double square root （DSR） equation are used to NMO-correct the mapped POM gathers to obtain more accurate migration velocities. These equations were derived and calculated by small pseudo offset. POM is then used to image complex structure and prestack time migration.     

The pattern characteristics of the tendency variations of earth resistivity and its relation to earthquakes

ＴｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｈｅｔｅｎｄｅｎｃｙｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｒｅｓｉｓｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎｄｉｔｓｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｔｏｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＨｅ－ＹｕｎＺＨＡＯ（赵和云）（ＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＲｅｓｅａｒ...     

A new formula on the Fresnel reflectance and its application in microwave remote sensing

As an important physical parameter in the elec-tromagnetic (E-M) theory, the Fresnel reflectance isabsolutely a necessary variable in oceanic remotesensing. For example, the thermal-infrared emissivityof sea surface temperature (SST), and the microwavetheory of passive remote sensing of SST and sea sur-face salinity (SSS) are both connected with it[1—7]. Themicrowave theory of active remote sensing of sea sur-face wind speed is also related to the Fresnel reflec-tance[8—15]. The Fresne…     

An extended Birnbaum–Saunders model and its application in the study of environmental quality in Santiago, Chile

In this article, we introduce, characterize and apply an extended version of the Birnbaum–Saunders model based on the Mudolkar–Hutson skew distribution. This model is appropriated for describing phenomena involving accumulation of some type, as is the case of environmental contamination. Specifically, we find the density, distribution function, and moments of the new model. In addition, we derive several properties and transformations related to this distribution. Furthermore, we propose an estimation method for the parameters of the model. Moreover, we conduct a study of its hazard rate focuses in environmental analysis. A computational implementation in R language of the obtained results is discussed. Finally, we present two examples with real data from environmental quality in Chile that illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Introduction According to many published papers, seismicity in time-space domain shows some characteristics, such as doughnut epicenter distribution (Mogi, 1969) or quiescence of seismic activity before large earthquakes (WANG, et al, 2002), and aftershock decay (Ogata, 1998). In recent years, more and more seismologists (Lynnr, Steven, 1990) have found that many strong earthquakes are preceded by enhancing regional seismicity and accelerating strain energy release (ZHANG, et al, 2001). T…     

Comprehensive indices of early judgement for earthquake sequence type by pattern recognition

This subject is one in the Eighth Five-year Plan of the SSB, China.     

Classification of rainfall into small- and large-scale events by statistical pattern recognition

Scale properties of daily areal rainfall in south-eastern Norway are investigated, and the events are classified into small- and large-scale events by statistical pattern recognition. The coefficient of variation and the standard deviation, computed from all precipitation gauges for one event, are considered to be mutually independent and are assigned gamma densities. The two statistical parameters form a feature vector which is used as the discriminatory variable in the classification algorithm. Empirical and theoretical semivariograms were fitted to the classified sets of events, and the parameters of the semivariogram (nugget, sill and range) were investigated for each set. Different values for all parameters were found, and the differences in range, describing the scale of the phenomena, were further investigated by the use of cross validation with the MSIE (mean squared interpolation error) criterion. Optimal range of daily small-scale precipitation was found to be 16 km (19 km without nugget effect), and 33 km (70 km without nugget effect) for daily large-scale precipitation. These optimal values for range, however, proved to be of small consequence for the estimated areal precipitation using kriging interpolation. Areal precipitation was computed for catchments of size 50 km² and 1200 km², and insignificant differences in the computed areal precipitation were found when applying the class-specific semivariograms instead of the mean semivariogram calculated from all events regardless of class. However, when areal reduction factors (ARFs) were derived from the analytical expressions of the class-specific semivariograms, considerable differences were found for the ARF curves of the two precipitation types. The difference became more marked for precipitation events of low probability of occurrence.     

主成分监督分类及其在水质特征遥感图像识别中的应用

建立了一种水域水质状况图像识别的主成分监督分类方法,首先通过ＴＭ水域图像数据的主成分分析,将原有各波段图谱的显著且独立的信息集中在数目尽可能少的合成图象中,再依据不同类型水体的光谱特征,分析各主成分图像的构成及其环境生态学含义,由此对整个研究区域内存在的不同标志类型及其分布特征有所了解,在此基础上,选定训练样本集,从而人有清楚的环境生态意义的标志类型,应用监督法得到较好的识别分类结果,分析表明,这     

等效偏移距方法及应用

当勘探目标地质构造复杂、地层倾角较陡或岩性横向突变时,在地表接收到的反射信号较弱、信噪比较低,甚至接收不到反射波,常规偏移成像方法对这类数据很难精确成像,因此可以考虑基于散射理论的等效偏移距方法来成像.该方法分两步进行：第一步是抽取共散射点道集;第二步是对共散射点道集进行克希霍夫积分偏移.文中数值模拟及实际资料的实例表明,该方法在复杂地质目标及低信噪比地震资料的成像处理中具有一定的实用价值.     

箱型钢结构应力场的模糊模式识别

本文依据模糊模式识别理论,以深圳市民中心屋顶网架结构的智能健康监测系统为背景,系统地介绍了屋顶网架结构支承箱型钢牛腿应力场的模糊模式识别方法。文中,在说明了方法的基本思路的基础上,详细介绍了方法的基本原理和仿真分析的步骤。并通过对深圳市民中心25号钢牛腿应力场识别的仿真,验证了方法的效果和可靠性。     

Seismic pattern recognition techniques to predict large eruptions at the Popocatépetl,Mexico, volcano

Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April–30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2–3); 11 December 2000–23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3–4) and 7 June–4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.     

一种显隐式积分方法及其应用

在实际工程结构动力反应分析中,往往由于结构型式十分复杂,常用的两种直接积分方法,即显式积分方法和隐式积分方法,在使用中都存在着一定的局限性,如何将这两种积分方法合理有效地结合起来,是一个十分有意义的研究课题。针对实际工程问题中整体结构计算时间步长的选择往往受局部区域的材料特性、尺寸大小等因素影响的这一现象,提出了一种对结构局部区域进行隐式积分、对其余区域进行显式积分的显隐式积分方法,这种积分格式相对于显式积分格式而言,能显著提高整体结构的计算速度。最后采用两个数值计算实例对这一方法进行验证。     

振幅衰减特性在地震与爆破识别中的应用

基于小震级地震与爆破事件,从快速识别要求出发,分析了P波初动振幅AI和P波最大振幅AP分别与S波最大振幅AS的幅值比判据及其对事件的识别能力．考虑到传播路径对地震与爆破各振幅的影响,选用合理的振幅随距离衰减公式,分别研究了P波、 S波各振幅随震中距的衰减特征,结果显示爆破振幅衰减比地震快; 在100 km处进行衰减校正后重新计算P波与S波幅值比,得到经过衰减校正后的幅值比AI/AS正确识别率从84%提高到98%,AP/AS正确识别率从92%提高到100%,表明经衰减校正后的幅值比判据可以更好地应用于小震级地震与爆破的识别中．     

识别天然地震和人工爆破的判据选择

从快速识别事件性质的要求出发,分析了天然地震和人工爆破的发震时间,P波初动方向,P波、S波振幅比值,P波、S波最大振幅与尾波持续时间比值等判据,得到P波初动方向和P最大振幅与S最大振幅比值是识别爆破和地震的两个有效判据,为研制“识别天然地震和人工爆破的分类决策支持系统”提供了应用依据.     

强震前中短期地震活动异常动态图像的表示方法及其预测意义

提出了二个描述中强震发生前中短期阶段地震活动异常时空演经图像的参量σＮ、σＥ。分别将其用于华北地区、新疆地震区及南北地震带,并对其预报效能进行检验,对其异常的空间分布图像与强震发生地震进行了分析,结果表明,该二参量能较好地瓜倾吐夺前中短期阶段孕震区及其周围地区地震活动的异常平静及丛集的现象。二参量异常的时空分布图像上示出在中强震发生前３个月至１年在震中周围地区有明显的异常分布,且随着时间逼近发震时