Community resilience,natural hazards,and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?

ABSTRACT

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.     

Research Approaches for Understanding,Enhancing, and Monitoring Community Resilience

The growing interest in the understanding of community resilience suggests a need for improving research approaches. This article reviews methods used to date, and suggests opportunities for expanding the range and efficacy of approaches used to understand, improve, and monitor the coupled social and ecological aspects of community resilience. We explore three potential foci: research approaches that enhance understanding of community resilience; those that help to improve community resilience through the research process; and the further development of methods to guide monitoring. Most studies have relied on mixed and multistaged methods, including in-depth interviews and case studies. We comment on the wide range of approaches used, and suggest others that could be valuable. There is particular scope for greater use of cumulative studies, historical or retrospective studies, participatory methods, and systems approaches, and a need for more methods that explore the coupling of social and ecological dimensions.     

沈阳铁西区社区弹性特征与成因分析

基于问卷数据,运用统计分析、地理探测器,分析沈阳铁西区不同社区弹性差异、影响因素及其成因。研究发现：① 商品房社区社会弹性、制度弹性、社区资本分值高于单位社区;单位社区的经济弹性、物质弹性分值高于商品房社区。② 物质弹性、制度弹性对社区资本影响作用较为显著,社会弹性、经济弹性影响作用较小。③ 从制度转型、地方政府、经济发展、社区服务和社会与个人5方面探讨了沈阳铁西区社区弹性成因。沈阳铁西区在搬迁改造、产业转型等冲击下,城市更新过程表现出较强的适应能力和较弱的学习能力,这是社会弹性、经济弹性、制度弹性、物质弹性共同作用的结果。     

A Community Resilience Evaluation and Optimization Strategy based on Stormwater Management

In the context of disaster normalization, the concept of “resilience” has been gradually introduced into the field of disaster prevention and mitigation in urban communities. In order to resist the increasingly frequent disasters caused by extreme weather, it is necessary to shift the focus of building resilient urban communities to the level of stormwater management. Community resilience is a disaster prevention and mitigation capability based on community resources. In order to solve the deficiency of storm and flood management in the current construction of resilient communities in China, it is necessary to establish a quantitative evaluation system to evaluate it. This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method to establish a community resilience evaluation system from the perspectives of community material space level, community management level and individual level. Then three communities in Hefei City, Anhui Province are selected for practical application of the system, and corresponding optimization and transformation strategies are proposed. The results show that: (1) The resilience of community stormwater management is closely related to the integrated environment of the community, the allocation of flood control facilities and the daily disaster prevention and mitigation management; (2) The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation and the awareness of public participation of the residents in all communities are relatively weak, and the communities invest less in the popularization of stormwater management wisdom; and (3) Resilient communities should not only pay attention to the construction of non-engineering disaster prevention measures, but also to the application of small-scale green infrastructure oriented toward stormwater management.     

Oil Spills and Community Resilience: Uneven Impacts and Protection in Historical Perspective

Louisiana's coastal residents have endured centuries of hurricanes and decades of oil spills. Locally based, inherent resilient practices have enabled them to persist in place. This paper documents the evolution of actions taken by Louisiana's coastal residents that constitute effective resilient activities in the aftermath of disruptive events. It compares the efforts that arose from coastal communities that were rooted in local environmental knowledge with generic external programs designed to enable hazard mitigation, emergency response, and recovery form damaging hurricanes and oil spills. Additionally, it will identify points of opportunity to fortify resilience by integrating inherent and formal resilience.     

Water Materialities and Citizen Engagement: Testing the Implications of Water Access and Quality for Community Engagement in Ghana and South Africa

We analyze the relationship between perceptions of domestic water access, and quality, in relation community engagement. While others have suggested linkages between material conditions of water access and engagement (e.g., that poor water access might spur engagement), to date there have been no studies those test these relationships using statistical methods. Based on a quantitative analysis of survey data from underserved sites in Accra, Ghana, and Cape Town, South Africa, our results show that water access and quality are both predictive of community engagement. The analysis also makes a strong case that there are different dimensions when considering the material conditions of water—in this case, water access and quality each condition engagement in opposite directions. Furthermore, consistent with other studies, our study also shows different demographics (notably gender) mediate these relationships in important ways.     

Climate change and community resilience in Samoa

Being resilient in the face of climate change seems especially important for island societies, which face the effects of rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, changing wind patterns and sea level rise. To date, most studies of adaptation and resilience among Pacific island communities have used indicators and methods rooted in Western science and neo-classical economics. These have been criticized as being locally irrelevant and inadequate to appreciate the dynamic nature and social structures of island communities and their capacity to adapt. This paper challenges the paradigm that defines resilience as a return to equilibrium, by using a non-equilibrium, cultural ecological lens. The non-equilibrium view of resilience sees the social systems of island nations as highly dynamic and undergoing persistent adaptation in the face of changing environmental factors. Field-based research undertaken in eight villages in Samoa found that, through constant exposure to environmental change over extended periods of time, communities have become resilient and are in a position to adapt to future changes. In developing future policy in relation to climate change, Pacific island governments need to develop a more nuanced understanding of islanders’ perceptions and historical actions in the context of both their physical locations and their dynamic socio-cultural systems.     

弹性、脆弱性和适应——IHDP三个核心概念综述

弹性、脆弱性和适应是全球环境变化人文因素计划( IHDP) 中三个非常重要的核心概念。 由于各自学科研究传统的差异, 不同学科在使用这些概念时其含义有很大差异, 有的甚至是不可 比的。本文主要根据《Global Environmental Change》2006 年第3 期发表的IHDP 学术委员会专题 研讨会成果, 结合UNU 关于脆弱性的研究成果, 重点介绍了这三个核心概念的演变以及相互联 系等方面的最新研究进展。     

Factors for the presence of avian scavengers in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana

Avian scavengers are common and active in the social life of southern Ghana, yet few studies consider both the ecological factors for avian presence and the avian–human interactions from human gender and age perspectives, and compare avian behaviour in both human-dominated and natural landscapes. This paper examines interactions between people, hooded vultures and pied crows in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana using both ecological and social research methods. Land use was classified for species presence into meat and waste production, vegetable marketing, non-food production, residential and central business areas, green spaces and rural areas. One hundred and eighty-four people were interviewed, classified according to age and gender. Hooded vultures and pied crows were more common in urban than rural areas, and their presence was positively correlated with human numbers. Birds were most common in meat and waste production areas, but also foraged for street discards in non-food production and residential areas, and were most rare in rural areas. Bird consumption of waste was viewed positively, while eating of other foods, close proximity and unusual behaviours were viewed negatively. Both species, especially the larger vultures, were feared as spiritual agents, this measured by odd behaviours. Women and older people had stronger beliefs, due to cultural conditioning. These human perspectives and reactions influenced avian presence. This study contributes to urban avian ecology, socio-cultural studies and urban planning.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区乡村社区恢复力时空演变及影响因素研究——以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为例

乡村人口与土地利用方式变革压力下,构建恢复力已成为保障区域社会—生态系统可持续发展的有效举措。以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为研究区,从社会、经济、制度、生态4个维度,运用熵权TOPSIS法对黄土丘陵沟壑区20个乡村的社区恢复力进行测度,探讨了2015—2019年社区恢复力的时空演变;利用障碍度模型分析了社区恢复力关键影响因子作用机制,并通过比较当前关键影响因子所处维度,将社区划分为不同类型,实现社区的分类治理。结果表明：①（① “四会”指村民议事会、红白理事会、道德评议会、禁毒禁赌会。） 研究期间社区恢复力由0.171提升到0.318,其中经济恢复力上升较为明显,制度、生态恢复力呈小幅提高,而社会恢复力则表现为下降;社区恢复力空间分异更加显著,呈现为“中部高、边缘低”的分布格局。② 研究期末社区恢复力关键影响因素中,经济维度有养殖业发展水平、种植业发展水平、农业产业化带动农户数、农民人均收入;制度维度为基层领导平均受教育年限、公平性管制、村民参与决策机会;社会维度为乡村公共空间比例、流动人口比例;生态维度为“三田”面积占比。③ 通过当前社区恢复力关键影响因子各维度障碍度大小排序,依次识别经济、制度、社会、生态恢复力低值区,最终将高渠乡20个乡村社区划分为3类,结合不同类型乡村社区的特点提出相应对策建议,以期为精准化、差异化管理提供决策参考。     

The Relationship between Community and Individual Measures of Wellbeing: comparisons by remoteness for Indigenous Australians

For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians, the wellbeing of the community in which one lives and/or has an ongoing attachment to is an important aspect of individual health and wellbeing. In non-Indigenous policy discourse, the main way to summarise community-level wellbeing is through indices of socioeconomic outcomes that can be used to rank regions or areas within regions. While these have been produced for the Indigenous population, they only capture one particular aspect of community wellbeing. The analysis presented in this paper extends our knowledge of place-based community wellbeing by looking at the presence or absence of particular facilities, barriers to accessing services, and neighbourhood or community problems. Indigenous Australians in remote areas were less likely to report the presence of a number of facilities and more likely to report barriers to accessing government services. However, there were no consistent differences in the reporting of neighbourhood and community problems—some types of problems had a higher incidence in non-remote areas (e.g. theft and dangerous or noisy driving), whilst other problems were higher in remote areas (alcohol, illegal drugs and violence). Indices of these variables were also found to be associated with individual emotional wellbeing, providing prima facie evidence of the link between community and individual measures.     

Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses in a Local Community: the Barwon Estuary Complex,Victoria

The climate change focus in Australia has shifted from mitigation to adaptation with an emphasis on place-specific case studies. The Barwon Estuary Complex (BEC) on the Bellarine Peninsula, central Victoria, was the focus of this place-specific study in which 37 local stakeholders were consulted through a series of semi-structured interviews on the impacts of climate change on their coastal community. Overall there was uniformity in stakeholder perceptions of the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities pertaining to the BEC. In contrast, discussion on adaptation drew a diversity of responses. While 53 per cent of stakeholders indicated a need to limit the use of hard structures, and rather plan around a changing estuarine environment, opinion amongst the community group was divided. Some believed ‘retreat is the only option’ whilst others felt ‘there won't be much leaving’. The present level of confusion around adaptation highlights the imperative of commencing discussions now to allow sufficient time to develop strategies which are both environmentally and socially responsible. This is important as ultimately it will be the community that will determine whether adaptation strategies are adopted or met with resistance.     

天山山区近40年秋季气候变化特征与南、北疆比较

利用新疆1959~1998年的秋季温度降水资料,分析天山山区近40年来秋季气候变化的基本特征,所得结果如下: (1) 天山山区秋季温度在冷暖变化阶段上与北疆的相似性强于南疆,但其秋季降水在干湿变化阶段上与南、北疆不同。 (2) 秋季温度空间分布的同步变化性以北疆为最好,南疆最差,天山山区居中。秋季降水空间分布的同步变化性以南疆最好,天山山区最差,北疆居中。 (3) 20世纪60~90年代,天山山区表现为波动升温,而南疆和北疆表现为持续增温,均以90年代温度最高,80年代是三大区域秋季降水最多的年代。60,70及90年代,三大区域的秋季降水均低于30年均值。     

Research Methodology for Tourism Destination Resilience and Analysis of Its Spatiotemporal Dynamics in the Post-epidemic Period

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread, the global tourism industry is facing enormous challenges. There is an urgent need to explore an effective path for tourism to recover and revitalize. With the normalization of the epidemic, tourism destinations will pay more attention to the prevention, warning, and coping strategies of the epidemic, and this focus will also be evident in the study of tourism destination resilience in the post-epidemic period. Some studies on the epidemic and the resilience of tourism are currently underway, but few of them are integrated with research on the resilience of tourism destinations in the post-epidemic period, although no systematic research ideas or methods have been found. Based on resilience theory, this paper summarizes the general research ideas and develops an epidemic resilience model suitable for urban tourism destinations. The present study also proposes a set of research methods based on the index system to analyze the resilience and its spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of tourism destinations in the post-epidemic period. The methodology can be divided into three stages: Firstly, construct the conceptual model and evaluation system for tourism destination resilience; Secondly, select case sites for empirical analysis, measure the resilience of tourism destinations, and analyze the characteristics of spatiotemporal differences and subsequent factors of influence; And finally, establish an adaptive management mechanism for tourism destinations to use in response to the epidemic and in guiding the formulation of post-epidemic recovery policies.     

2000~2010年陕北地区植被NDVI时空变化及其与区域气候的关系

采用相关关系分析、空间统计分析和叠置分析,研究陕北地区2000~2010年植被NDVI的时空变化特征,并从温度和降水2个方面分析植被NDVI变化与区域气候的关系。研究表明,该地区植被NDVI经历了从相对快速增长到小幅波动,再到平稳增长3个阶段。其中,陕北中东部区域植被覆盖增加显著,北部变化不大,南部略微下降。同期该区域气候干热化趋势有所改善,植被覆盖变化与区域气候相关性不高,气候对植被覆盖的影响主要表现为对植被生长期年内韵律的控制方面。     

Community collaboration and climate change research in the Canadian Arctic

Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic.     

气候变化对祁连山北坡农林牧业结构的影响与对策研究

揭示了气候持续变暖是祁连山北坡现代气候变化的基本特征。1986年是气候发生明显转折的年份,1987—2003年的平均气温比1961—1986年升高0.8℃,≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温增加142℃和131℃,呈线性上升趋势;降水量平均增加7.5 mm,呈曲线缓慢增多趋势。由于气候变暖,使农作物适生种植区和作物种植上限高度不同程度的提高,其中喜热棉花、喜温玉米和喜凉甘蓝型油菜分别提高100 m左右、150 m左右和200 m左右,种植面积迅速扩大,呈直线上升趋势。依据农业气候生态资源垂直分布特征和15种主要作物气候生态适生种植区以及农林牧业结构布局特点,采用气候生态相似原理,将祁连山北坡大体分为5个农林牧业气候生态区,建议性提出各区农林牧业结构的比重以及夏粮、秋粮、经济作物和饲草的种植比例,并阐明了各区未来主要发展方向。     

北疆西部近50 a来气候、水文变化趋势及其与北大西洋/北极涛动的关系

 根据北疆西部11个气象站点1957—2007气象资料,主要代表性河流1960—2006年流量数据以及1957—2007年NAO和AO时间序列数据,采用趋势分析,Mann-Kendall检验以及相关分析等方法,研究了北疆西部地区近50 a来气候、水文的变化趋势,分析了气候变化对径流的影响,初步探讨了NAO和AO对区域气候变化的影响。研究结果表明,近50 a来,北疆西部地区增温、增湿显著,但二者变化幅度存在季节差异。受气候变化的影响,奎屯河年径流量表现出显著增加趋势。进一步分析发现,奎屯河、四棵树河年径流量的变化主要受温度因子控制,卡琅古尔河、精河和博尔塔拉河的年径流量则主要受降水因子控制。研究表明,艾比湖水域面积同样受气候变化的影响,尤其是与年降水量增加紧密相关,二者相关系数为0.584。相关分析证实NAO和AO确实对北疆西部地区的气候变化具有显著影响。具体体现在,NAO和AO显著的影响研究区冬季温度和全年的温度变化;NAO对整个区域年降水具有显著影响。温度比降水对NAO和AO的响应更敏感。