Appraisal of the prevalence of severe tropical storms over Indian Ocean by screening the features of tropical depressions

Natural Hazards - Tropical cyclones are one of the nature’s most violent manifestations and potentially the deadliest of all meteorological phenomena. It is a unique combination of violent...     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Space and time distributions of major winter storms in the United States

Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.     

Patterns of sediment deposition in subsiding coastal salt marshes,Terrebonne Bay,Louisiana: The role of winter storms

High rates of wetland loss in the Mississippi deltaic plain have been attributed to a combination of insufficient marsh sedimentation and relative sea-level rise rates of over 1.2 cm yr^?1. This study examines contemporary patterns of sediment delivery to the marsh surface by evaluating the contribution of individual marsh flooding events. Strong meteorological effects on water level in Terrebonne Bay often mask the usual microtidal fluctuations in water level and cause flood events to be of unpredictable frequency and duration. Sediment deposited on the marsh surface was collected weekly at two sites. Preliminary results allow the relative contributions of tidal and storm inundations to be calculated. Maximum sedimentation is associated with strong southerly winds both causing increased flooding and mobilizing sediment from open bay areas. Sediment deposition is limited by the availability of suspended sediment and the opportunity for its transport onto the marsh surface.     

Economic damages due to extreme precipitation during tropical storms: evidence from Jamaica

Natural Hazards - This study investigates economic damage risk due to extreme rainfall during tropical storms in Jamaica. To this end, remote sensing precipitation data are linked to regional...     

Fluvial herring-bone cross-stratification in a modern tributary mouth bar, Coonamble, New South Wales, Australia

Herring-bone cross-stratification occurs in tributary mouth bar sediments less than 150 yr old in Warrena Creek near its confluence with the Castlereagh River some 2000 river kilometres from the sea in northern New South Wales. These streams have low gradients, with straight to anastomosing channels which become sinuous and distributive downstream. Channel beds are sand but banks are almost exclusively mud which is burrowed and extensively penetrated by roots. Herring-bone cross-stratification results from flow reversals in Warrena Creek during flood events. Flow direction depends upon discharge and stage in the creek relative to that in the adjacent river. The lithofacies resemble inter-tidal deposits and could easily be misidentified on the basis of herring-bone cross-stratification in an ancient sedimentary sequence. Herringbone cross-stratification should be regarded as diagnostic of depositional environments in which current directions are principally determined by reversals of water surface gradient, rather than by regional slope. Flow reversal phenomena may be a characteristic of very low gradient fluvial systems.     

Impact of anthropogenic activity and cyclonic storm on black carbon during winter at a tropical urban city,Pune

Black carbon (BC) aerosols are emitted into the atmosphere as a byproduct of different combustion processes and are reported to be a very strong absorber of solar radiation. In this paper, we present results on BC aerosols over Pune, a tropical urban city in south west India during Diwali festival in the month of November 2010. Daily mean BC showed about 5 % increase on Diwali day compared with preceding and succeeding period with concentrations reaching as high as about 21 μg/m³ in the morning on Diwali day, mainly due to the influence of extensive fireworks. However, the strong winds accompanied by occasional rainfall due to severe cyclonic storm “Jal” formed in the Bay of Bengal on the same day dampened this effect and reduced BC to about 2 μg/m³ within 6 h. There was only 5 % increase in mean BC concentration on Diwali day during 2010 as compared to the average increase of about 17 % during preceding 4 years on Diwali day, mainly due to the impact of weather conditions induced by Jal.     

Rapid eco-physical impact assessment of tropical cyclones using geospatial technology: a case from severe cyclonic storms Amphan

The tropical cyclones are very destructive during landfall, generating high wind speeds, heavy intensive rainfall, and severe storm surges with huge coastal inundations that have massive socioeconomic and ecological catastrophic effects on human beings and the economic well-being. The sizable ecological effects of cyclonic storms cannot be ignored because of the uncertainty of impact, intensity induced by a warming ocean, and sea level rise. The Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan which falls under the category five classifications under the scheme of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), on the basis the maximum sustained wind speeds gusting up to 168 km/h affected parts of West Bengal and Odisha in India, and south-west Bangladesh between May 16 and 20, 2020. In this work, we have focused on the coastal districts of Kendrapada, Bhadrak, Balasore in Odisha, Purba Medinipur, and South Twenty-Four Parganas in West Bengal, India and, Khulna, Barisal division of Bangladesh that have been seriously affected by the Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan. The objective of the study is to analyze the eco-physical assessment of tropical cyclone Amphan using geospatial technology. Therefore, shoreline change detection and enhance vegetation index have been used in this research work to systematically analyze the eco-physical impact parameters of Cyclonic Storm Amphan using ortho-rectified Landsat 8/OLI imagery and MODIS dataset of USGS with high spatial resolutions of 30–500 m. The result highlights that about 60.33% of the total transects of the study area was eroded, but only 24.99% of the total transects experienced accretion, and 14.68% of the total transects depicted stability. The scientific study will benefit coastal managers and policymakers in formulating action plans for coastal zone management, natural resilience, and sustainable future development.

     

Modelling and in-situ measurements of intense currents during a winter storm in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW Mediterranean Sea)

While oceanic circulation in the Gulf of Lion (GoL) has often been studied in calm weather or with northerly winds (Tramontane or Mistral) through observations and numerical circulation models, few studies have focused on southeasterly storm events. Yet, correct representation of the circulation during storms is crucial if the suspension of sediments is to be correctly modelled throughout the Gulf. The purpose of this paper is to describe the hydrodynamics in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW of the GoL) during the storm of 18 February 2007 by using a set of data from an ADCP station placed at a depth of 65 m on the sea bed off the coast at Sète, supplemented by the ocean circulation model SYMPHONIE. This storm was characterized by a moderate south-easterly wind (15 m . s^?1) and waves of up to 5 m of significant height at its apex. At the ADCP, strong currents of up to 0.8 m . s^?1 near the surface and 0.5 m . s^?1 near the bottom were recorded, parallel to the coast, flowing towards the south-west. The simulated currents were widely underestimated, even taking the effect of waves into account in the model. It was suspected that the representation of the wind in the atmospheric model was an underestimation. A new simulation was therefore run with an arbitrarily chosen stronger wind and its results were in much better agreement with the measurements. A simplified theoretical analysis successfully isolated the wind-induced processes, responsible for the strong currents measured during the apex and the strong vertical shear that occurred at the beginning of the storm. These processes were: 1/ the barotropic geostrophic current induced by a wind parallel to the coast and 2/ the Ekman spiral. The duration of the storm (about 36 h at the apex) explains the continuous increase of the current as predicted by the theory. The frictionally induced Ekman transport explains the current shear in the surface layer in the rising stage of the storm, and the addition of high waves and strong wind at the apex is more in favour of strong vertical mixing in the surface layer.     

Effects of two hurricanes onSyringodium filiforme, manatee grass, within the Loxahatchee River estuary, Southeast Florida

In September 2004, the Loxahatchee River Estuary was affected by Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, which resulted in a monthly rainfall record of 610 mm and abnormally high freshwater discharges to the system. The occurrence, density, and biomass ofSyringodium filiforme in the Loxahatchee River Estuary declined significantly following the September 2004 storms based on 15 mo of pre-hurricane monitoring and 12 mo of post-hurricane monitoring. Throughout posthurricane monitoring,S. filiforme showed no sign of recovery, thoughHalophila johnsonii increased considerably during the post-hurricane period. Freshwater discharges resulting from the September 2004 hurricanes lowered minimum daily salinity values to near zero and increased standard deviation of daily salinity values to 11‰. Extremely low minimum daily salinity values and high daily salinity fluctuations likely resulted in the observed decline ofS. filiforme. We advise the use of minimum daily salinity values when assessing seagrass habitat suitability or when modeling the effects of alternative water management scenarios.     

An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes

Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them.     

Rangeland management and climate hazards in drylands: dust storms,desertification and the overgrazing debate

This paper examines the theory and supporting evidence for links between desertification, drought and dust storms with a particular focus on studies undertaken in and around the Gobi Desert. Overgrazing of rangeland by pastoralists has been the most commonly cited cause of desertification in global drylands for more than 30 years, but the evidence supporting this link is not always convincing. Nonetheless, overgrazing, desertification and dust storms are frequently connected, regardless. Drought is another well-known and important driver of vegetation cover change. Distinguishing between vegetation cover adversely affected by drought and that reduced by grazing is imperative for policy makers because identifying the incorrect driver of vegetation change risks the development of inappropriate policy.     

The anatomy of natural disasters on online media: hurricanes and wildfires

Natural Hazards - Increasing prevalence and scale of natural disasters fuel the need for new approaches to evaluating, and eventually mitigating, their impact. This analysis quantifies and compares...     

Possible effects of the 2004 and 2005 hurricanes on manatee survival rates and movement

Prior research on manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) survival in northwest Florida, based on mark-resighting photo-identification data from 1982–1998, showed that annual adult apparent survival rate was significantly lower during years with extreme storms. Mechanisms that we proposed could have led to lower estimates included stranding, injury from debris, being fatally swept out to sea, or displacement into poorly monitored areas due to storm-generated longshore currents or storm-related loss of habitat. In 2004 and 2005, seven major hurricanes impacted areas of Florida encompassing three regional manatee subpopulations, enabling us to further examine some of these mechanisms. Data from a group of manatees tracked in southwest Florida with satellite transmitters during Hurricanes Charley, Katrina, and Wilma showed that these animals made no significant movement before and during storm passage. Mark-resighting data are being collected to determine if survival rates were lower with the 2004 and 2005 storms.     

Sedimentation in a tropical, microtidal, wave-dominated coastal-plain estuary

The Mono estuary is an infilled, microtidal estuary located on the wave-dominated Bight of Benin coast which is subject to very strong eastward longshore drift. The estuarine fill comprises a thick unit of lagoonal mud deposited in a ‘central basin’between upland fluvial deposits and estuary-mouth wave-tide deposits. This lagoonal fill is capped by organic-rich tidal flat mud. In addition to tidal flat mud, the superficial facies overlying the ‘central basin’fill include remnants of spits resting on transgressive/washover sand, an estuary-mouth association of beach, shoreface, flood-tidal delta and tidal inlet deposits, and a thin sheet of fluvial sediments deposited over tidal flat mud. After an initial phase of spit intrusion over the infilled central basin east of the present Mono channel, the whole estuary mouth became bounded by a regressive barrier formed from sand supplied by the Volta Delta during the middle Holocene eustatic highstand. Barrier progradation ceased late in the Holocene following the establishment of an equilibrium plan-form shoreline alignment that allowed through-drift of Volta sand to sediment sinks further downdrift. Over the same period, accretion, from fluvially supplied sediments, of the estuarine plain close to the limit of spring high tides, or, over much of the lower valley, into a fluvial plain no longer subject to tidal flooding, induced marked meandering of the Mono and its tidal distributaries in response to confinement of much of the tidal prism to these channels. The process resulted in erosion of spit/washover and regressive barrier sand, and in reworking of the tidal flat and floodbasin deposits. The strong longshore drift, equilibrium shoreline alignment and the year-round persistence of a tidal inlet maintained by discharge from the Mono and from Lake Ahémé have resulted in a stationary barrier that is reworked by a mobile inlet. The Mono example shows that advanced estuarine infill may result in considerable facies reworking, obliteration of certain facies and marked spatial imbrication of fluvial, estuarine and wave-tide-deposited facies, and confirms patterns of sedimentary change described for microtidal estuaries on wave-influenced coasts. In addition, this study shows that local environmental factors such as sediment supply relative to limited accommodation space, and strong longshore drift, which may preclude accumulation of sediments in the vicinity of the estuary mouth, may lead to infilled equilibrium or near-equilibrium estuaries that will not necessarily evolve into deltas.     

Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States

The authors show that historical property damage losses from US hurricanes contain climate signals. The methodology is based on a statistical model that combines a specification for the number of loss events with a specification for the amount of loss per event. Separate models are developed for annual and extreme losses. A Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate posterior samples from the models. Results indicate the chance of at least one loss event increases when the springtime north–south surface pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is weaker than normal, the Atlantic ocean is warmer than normal, El Ni?o is absent, and sunspots are few. However, given at least one loss event, the magnitude of the loss per annum is related only to ocean temperature. The 50-year return level for a loss event is largest under a scenario featuring a warm Atlantic Ocean, a weak North Atlantic surface pressure gradient, El Ni?o, and few sunspots. The work provides a framework for anticipating hurricane losses on seasonal and multi-year time scales.     

Numerical simulation of cyclonic storms FANOOS, NARGIS with assimilation of conventional and satellite observations using 3-DVAR

In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS.     

The storage potential of different surface coverings for various scale storms on Wu-Tu watershed,Taiwan

An impervious surface cover is continuously spreading over the Wu-Tu upstream watershed due to the concentrated population and raised economical demands, while that area also frequently suffers from heavy storms or typhoons during the summer season. The increased flood volume due to this extended imperviousness causes a greater potential hazard than that of the past. In order to evaluate the urbanized impacts on the watershed, a set of methods were used to estimate the changes of the watershed storage. This research chose 51 observed events from three raingauges on the Wu-Tu upstream watershed, Taiwan, to study the volume characteristic of abstracted rainwater. In the study, the block Kriging method was used to estimate the area rainfall and the hourly excess was derived through the non-linear programing (NLP). A total of 40 samples were calibrated through the hydrological model and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model using the optimum seeking method in order to search out and establish the best parameters that illustrate the hydrological and geomorphic conditions at that time. Eleven cases were used to examine the established relationship of the parameters and the impervious coverings. A design storm approach was used to view the changes of the volume for various scale storms/typhoons because of the different degrees of urbanization. Then, a diagram was designed to show the relationships that exist among the runoff coefficient, return period, and impervious surface. The satisfactory results show that storage capability of rainwater for various scale storms on the Wu-Tu watershed would be respectively reduced about 42–156 cms in different decrements up to now.     

How hurricane attributes determine the extent of environmental effects: Multiple hurricanes and different coastal systems

The most recent spate of hurricanes to strike the United States and Caribbean (1989 to the present) has occurred when many of the affected areas had long-term water quality and biological data collection efforts ongoing, as well as special follow-up studies. These data have allowed researchers to obtain a much clearer picture of how individual characteristics of hurricanes interact with human land use to lead to various types and degrees of environmental effects. Common deleterious water quality effects associated with hurricanes include excessive nutrient loading, algal blooms, elevated biochemical oxygen demand and subsequent hypoxia and anoxia, fish and invertebrate kills, aquatic animal displacements, large scale releases of chemical pollutants and debris from damaged human structures, exacerbated spread of exotic species and pathogens, and pollution of water with fecal microbial pathogens. These and other effects may or may not occur, or occur to varying degrees, depending upon individual hurricane characteristics including category, point of landfall, wind speed, amount of rainfall, and path after landfall. Landfall in a populous area, a post-landfall trajectory upriver toward a headwater region, passage along a floodplain containing pollution sources (such as wastewater treatment plants, concentrated animal feeding operations, and septic systems), and intensity sufficient to damage power generation will all lead to increased environmental damage. We suggest a number of recommendations for post-hurricane water sampling parameters and techniques, and provide several management-oriented recommendations for better coastal and floodplain land use aimed at lessening the water quality effects of hurricanes.     

Gravel antidunes in the tropical Burdekin River, Queensland, Australia

The geological record is punctuated by the deposits of extreme event phenomena, the identification and interpretation of which are hindered by a lack of data on contemporary examples. It is impossible to directly observe sedimentary bedforms and grain fabrics forming under natural particle-transporting, high-velocity currents, and therefore, their characteristics are poorly documented. The deposits of such flows are exposed however, in the dry bed of the Burdekin River, Queensland, Australia following tropical cyclone-induced floods. Long wave-length (up to 19 m) gravel antidunes develop during short (days) high-discharge flows in the upper Burdekin River (maximum recorded discharge near the study reach over 25 600 m³ s^?1 in February 1927). Flood water levels fall quickly (metres in a day) and flow is diverted away from raised areas of the river bed into subchannels, exposing many of the high-stage bedforms with little reworking by falling-stage currents. Gravel bedforms were observed on the dry river bed after the moderate flows of February 1994 (max. 7700 m³ s^?1) and January 1996 (max. 3200 m³ s^?1). The bedforms had wave-lengths in the range 8–19 m, amplitudes of up to 1 m with steeper stoss than lee faces and crest lines generally transverse to local peak-discharge flow direction. The gravel fabric and size sorting change systematically up the stoss and down the lee faces. The antidune deposits form erosive based lenses of sandy gravel with low-angle downstream dipping lamination and generally steep upstream dipping a-b planes. The internal form and fabric of the antidune gravel lenses are distinctly different from those of dune lee gravel lenses. The erosive based lenses of low-angle cross-bedded gravel with steep upstream dipping a-b planes are relatively easy to recognize and may be diagnostic of downstream migrating antidunes. The antidune gravel lenses are associated with thick (to 1 m) high-angle cross bed sets. Ancient antidune gravel lenses may be diagnostic of episodic high-discharge conditions and particularly when they are associated with high-angle cross-bedded gravelly sand they may be useful for palaeoenvironmental interpretation.     

Tourism development on the north Yucatan coast: Human response to shoreline erosion and hurricanes

The barrier coast of north Yucatan has been evolving into a beachfront recreational landscape since the introduction of passenger rail service between Mérida and Progreso in 1881. Beginning in the 1950's, middle-class vacation home construction spread laterally outward from Progreso, and even distal fishing and salt-gathering villages became engulfed by a recreational landuse overlay. In spite of geomorphic evidence of marine transgression, such as dune scarps and washover fans, the focus of recreational urbanization has been the beachfront. And although attempts at retarding shore erosion have taken place since the 1960s, hazard perception has remained generally low until the late 1980s. When Hurricane Gilbert blew across the Yucatan peninsula in 1988, damage to beachfront structures, highways, boats, and salt ponds was extensive. The barrier environment exhibited extensive overwashing and breaching, especially in areas of human modification, and the lagoon ecosystem experienced considerable ecologic disruption. Because the north Yucatan coast is a locus of domestic tourism, and the thousands of uninsured summer homes are owned largely by members of Mérida's middle class, reconstruction since Gilbert has been slow. Incipient trends of international tourism development have slowed since 1988.