Inter‐annual changes of alpine inland lake water storage on the Tibetan Plateau: Detection and analysis by integrating satellite altimetry and optical imagery

The effects of climate change have a substantial influence on the extremely vulnerable hydrologic environment of the Tibetan Plateau. The estimation of alpine inland lake water storage variations is essential to modeling the alpine hydrologic process and evaluating water resources. Due to a lack of historical hydrologic observations in this remote and inaccessible region, such estimations also fill a gap in studies on the continuous inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the inland lake water budget. Using Lake Siling Co as a case study, we derived a time‐series of lake surface extents from MODIS imagery, and scarce lake water level data from the satellite altimetry of two sensors (ICESat/GLAS and ENVISAT RA‐2) between 2001 and 2011. Then, based on the fact that the rise in lake water levels is tightly dependent on the expansion of the lake extent, we established an empirical model to simulate a continuous lake water level dataset corresponding to the lake area data during the lake's unfreezing period. Consequently, from three dimensions, the lake surface area, water level and water storage variations consistently revealed that Lake Siling Co exhibited a dramatic trend to expand, particularly from 2001 to 2006. Based on the statistical model and lake area measurements from Landsat images since 1972, the extrapolated lake water level and water storage indicate that the lake has maintained a continual expansion process and that the cumulative water storage variations during 1999–2011 account for 66.84% of the total lake water budget (26.87 km³) from 1972 to 2011. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological impacts of climate change predicted for an inland lake catchment in Ontario by using monthly water balance analyses

Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1975-2007年中亚干旱区内陆湖泊面积变化遥感分析

中亚干旱区内陆湖泊的湖面变化反映了气候波动和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响.本文以中亚干旱区平原区尾闾湖泊、吞吐湖泊和高山湖泊三类典型内陆湖泊为研究对象,利用1975-2007年Landsat遥感影像,基于归一化水体指数提取湖泊水域边界信息,分析近30年来内陆湖泊湖面变化特征.结果表明,近30年来,研究区内有超过一半的内...     

高亚洲冰川质量变化趋势的卫星重力探测

利用高亚洲地区32个Mascon,基于GRACE RL05时变重力场模型频域和空域上的两种计算方法有效分离并提取出高亚洲冰川及其毗邻地区的等效水质量变化,得到2002—2013年期间高亚洲地区更为可靠的Mascon质量变化.高亚洲冰川质量变化的空间特征是:青藏高原内陆地区以正增长为主,边缘地区以负增长为主,在藏东南的最边缘地区冰川质量损失最为严重.天山地区、帕米尔和昆仑山地区、喜马拉雅山和喀喇昆仑山地区、青藏高原内陆地区冰川质量的平均变化趋势分别为-2.8±0.9 Gt/a、-3.3±1.5 Gt/a、-9.9±2.1 Gt/a和5.0±0.8 Gt/a, 高亚洲冰川质量整体的平均变化趋势为-11.0±2.9 Gt/a.印度等北部平原地区地下水平均变化趋势为-35.0±4.2 Gt/a,该地区地下水信号泄漏是影响GRACE研究高亚洲冰川质量变化的关键因素,频域法和空域法能有效改正该地区地下水信号泄漏的影响.     

Using diatoms to assess geographical patterns of change in high-altitude European lakes from pre-industrial times to the present day

No Abstract. .This is the corrected version of the Acknowledgments and some references of the above mentioned article that appeared electronically Online First on April 1, 2005 (this issue, pp. 224–236).     

A review of low‐cost space‐borne data for flood modelling: topography,flood extent and water level

During the last two decades, remote sensing data have led to tremendous progress in advancing flood inundation modelling. In particular, low‐cost space‐borne data can be invaluable for large‐scale flood studies in data‐scarce areas. Various satellite products yield valuable information such as land surface elevation, flood extent and water level, which could potentially contribute to various flood studies. An increasing number of research studies have been dedicated to exploring those low‐cost data towards building, calibration and evaluation, and remote‐sensed information assimilation into hydraulic models. This paper aims at reviewing these recent scientific efforts on the integration of low‐cost space‐borne remote sensing data with flood modelling. Potentials and limitations of those data in flood modelling are discussed. This paper also introduces the future satellite missions and anticipates their likely impacts in flood modelling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applying multi‐parameter runoff elasticity to assess water availability in a changing climate: an example from Texas,USA

Adaptation and mitigation efforts related to global trends in climate and water scarcity must often be implemented at the local, single‐catchment scale. A key requirement is understanding the impact of local climate and watershed characteristics coupled with these regional trends. For surface water, determination of multi‐parameter runoff elasticities is a promising tool for achieving such understanding, as explored here for two surface‐water dependent basins in Texas. The first basin is the water supply for Dallas‐Ft. Worth (DFW), and exhibits relatively high precipitation elasticity (proportional change in runoff to change in precipitation) ε_P = 2.64, and temperature elasticity ε_T = ? 0.41. Standard precipitation–temperature elasticity diagrams exhibit unusual concave contours of runoff change, indicating influence of additional parameters, which can be isolated using multi‐parameter approaches. The most influential local parameter in DFW is unexpected reduced runoff fraction in cooler wetter years. Those years exhibit increased summer (JJA) precipitation fraction, but predominant cracking soils in DFW minimize JJA runoff, yielding negative . A comparative basin near Houston shows positive , reflecting the local impact of tropical cyclones and lesser abundance of cracking soils. Both basins exhibit positive elasticity to 1‐year previous precipitation (e.g. DFW ε_{P ? 1} = 1.24), reflecting the influence of soil moisture storage. Only DFW exhibits negative elasticity to 2‐year previous precipitation (ε_{P ? 2} = ? 0.65), reflecting multi‐year influence of vegetation growth and increased evapotranspiration. Using these elasticities, analysis of historical multi‐decadal climate departures for DFW indicates the 80% decrease in runoff during the 1950–1957 drought of record was primarily caused by reduced precipitation. Runoff 56% above‐normal during an unprecedented 1986–1998 wet period was primarily caused by increased precipitation. Since 2000, despite precipitation slightly above normal, runoff has decreased 20%, primarily in response to ～ 1^°C warming. Future precipitation droughts superimposed on this new drier normal are likely to be much more severe than historical experience would indicate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie‐Castlereagh River Basin in Australia

The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall‐runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region for historical (1895–2006) and future (～2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall‐runoff models, respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval ? 15 to + 8%) in mean annual runoff under a ～2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the ～2030 climate scenario, the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval ? 10 to + 5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval ? 5 to + 3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval ? 17 to + 6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part I: Future rainfall patterns and sea‐level rise

Reserves of fresh groundwater on atoll islands are extremely fragile due to climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Of major concern is the quantity of water to be available in the coming decades under the influence of variable rainfall patterns, rising sea level, environmental conditions, and expected population growth that depends on groundwater resources. In this study, a 3‐dimensional numerical modelling approach using the SEAWAT modelling code is used to estimate freshwater lens volume fluctuation for 4 representative islands in the Republic of Maldives in response to long‐term changes in rainfall, sea‐level rise (SLR), and anthropogenic stresses such as groundwater pumping and short‐term impacts from tsunami‐induced marine overwash events. This work is divided into 2 papers. This first paper presents numerical model set‐up and calibration, and the effect of future rainfall patterns and SLR on fresh groundwater reserves. The second paper focuses on marine overwash events. The results of simulated future freshwater lens volume presented in the first study contribute to efficient groundwater resources planning and management for the Maldives in the upcoming decades. Freshwater lenses in small atoll islands (area < 0.6 km²) are shown to have a strong variability trends in the upcoming decades with expected reduction in lens volume between 11% and 36% due to SLR. In contrast, freshwater lenses in larger atoll islands (area > 1.0 km²) are shown to have less variability to changing patterns with expected reduction in lens volume between 8% and 26% due to SLR. Study results can provide water resource managers with valuable findings for consideration in water security measures.     

Surface water input from snowmelt and rain throughfall in western juniper: potential impacts of climate change and shifts in semi‐arid vegetation

In the western USA, shifts from snow to rain precipitation regimes and increases in western juniper cover in shrub‐dominated landscapes can alter surface water input via changes in snowmelt and throughfall. To better understand how shifts in both precipitation and semi‐arid vegetation cover alter above‐ground hydrological processes, we assessed how rain interception differs between snow and rain surface water input; how western juniper alters snowpack dynamics; and how these above‐ground processes differ across western juniper, mountain big sagebrush and low sagebrush plant communities. We collected continuous surface water input with four large lysimeters, interspace and below‐canopy snow depth data and conducted periodic snow surveys for two consecutive water years (2013 and 2014). The ratio of interspace to below‐canopy surface water input was greater for snow relative to rain events, averaging 79.4% and 54.8%, respectively. The greater surface water input ratio for snow is in part due to increased deposition of redistributed snow under the canopy. We simulated above‐ground energy and water fluxes in western juniper, low sagebrush and mountain big sagebrush for two 8‐year periods under current and projected mid‐21st century warmer temperatures with the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model. Juniper compared with low and mountain sagebrush reduced surface water input by an average of 138 mm or 24% of the total site water budget. Conversely, warming temperatures reduced surface water input by only an average of 14 mm across the three vegetation types. The future (warmer) simulations resulted in earlier snow disappearance and surface water input by 51 and 45 days, respectively, across juniper, low sagebrush and mountain sagebrush. Information from this study can help land managers in the sagebrush steppe understand how both shifts in climate and semi‐arid vegetation will alter fundamental hydrological processes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany,Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias‐corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031–2040) and long term (2051–2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003–2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003–2012, is expected at medium term (?0.6%) and long term (?2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (?1.1% and ?6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of ?3.3% at 2031–2040 and ?8.1% at 2051–2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam‐reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.     

Understanding changes in the water budget driven by climate change in cryospheric‐dominated watershed of the northeast Tibetan Plateau,China

Glacial retreat and the thawing of permafrost due to climate warming have altered the hydrological cycle in cryospheric‐dominated watersheds. In this study, we analysed the impacts of climate change on the water budget for the upstream of the Shule River Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1957–2010 in the study area. The hydrological cycle in the study area has intensified and accelerated under recent climate change. The average increasing rate of discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin was 7.9 × 10⁶ m³/year during 1957–2010. As the mean annual glacier mass balance lost ?62.4 mm/year, the impact of glacier discharge on river flow has increased, especially after the 2000s. The contribution of glacier melt to discharge was approximately 187.99 × 10⁸ m³ or 33.4% of the total discharge over the study period. The results suggested that the impact of warming overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off increase during the study period. The evapotranspiration (ET) increased during 1957–2010 with a rate of 13.4 mm/10 years. On the basis of water balance and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data, the total water storage change showed a decreasing trend, whereas groundwater increased dramatically after 2006. As permafrost has degraded under climate warming, surface water can infiltrate deep into the ground, thus changing both the watershed storage and the mechanisms of discharge generation. Both the change in terrestrial water storage and changes in groundwater have had a strong control on surface discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin. Future trends in run‐off are forecasted based on climate scenarios. It is suggested that the impact of warming will overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off in the study area. Further studies such as this will improve understanding of water balance in cold high‐elevation regions.     

Prediction of groundwater‐induced flooding in a chalk aquifer for future climate change scenarios

Current climate change models for the southeast UK predict changing rainfall patterns, with increased incidence of extreme events. The chalk aquifer in the UK and northern France is susceptible to groundwater‐induced flooding under such conditions. In this methodological study we apply a frequency domain analysis approach to the chalk aquifer to derive a transfer function between effective rainfall and groundwater level from 7 years of monitoring data from the North Heath Barn site, near Brighton. The derived transfer function was calibrated and validated against monitoring data and then used to predict groundwater level for rainfall models for high, medium and low emission scenarios from the UKCP09 database. The derived transfer function is most closely comparable to the linear aquifer model, despite evidence for both matrix and fracture or karst water flow in the chalk, with transmissivity and unconfined storativity at the catchment scale of 1548 m² day^?1 and 1.6 × 10^?2. The application of the transfer function to UKCP09 rainfall data suggests that groundwater‐induced flooding may be about four times more frequent by 2040–2069 compared with 1961–1990 and seven times more frequent by 2070–2099. The model data also suggest an increase in the duration of groundwater minima relative to the reference period. Compared to deterministic modelling which requires detailed knowledge of aquifer heterogeneity and processes, the transfer function approach, although with limitations, is simpler, incorporating these factors into the analysis through frequency and phase coefficients, and thus may have the potential for groundwater risk assessment in other areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of decadal to century scale glacio‐hydrological change for water resources of the Hood River basin,OR, USA

In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snow‐fed and glacier‐fed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: statistical downscaling of global climate model projections

Climate change due to global warming is a public concern in Central Asia. Because of specific orography and climate conditions, the republic of Tajikistan is considered as the main glacial center of Central Asia. In this study, regional climate change impacts in the two large basins of Tajikistan, Pyanj and Vaksh River basins located in the upstream sector of the Amu Darya River basin are analysed. A statistical regression method with model output statistics corrections using the ground observation data, Willmott archived dataset and GSMaP satellite driven dataset, was developed and applied to the basins to downscale the Global Climate Model Projections at a 0.1‐degree grid and to assess the regional climate change impacts at subbasin scale. It was found that snow and glacier melting are of fundamental importance for the state of the future water resources and flooding at the target basins since the air temperature had a clearly increasing trend toward the future. It was also found that the snowfall will decrease, but the rainfall will increase because of the gradual increase in the air temperature. Such changes may result in an increase in flash floods during the winter and the early spring, and in significant changes in the hydrological regime during a year in the future. Furthermore, the risks of floods in the target basins may be slightly increasing because of the increase in the frequencies and magnitudes of high daily precipitation and the increase in the rapid snowmelt with high air temperatures toward the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality modelling in small Slovenian Mediterranean catchment – lesson for policy and decision makers

The study aims to address the long‐term impacts of six different downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCM) climate models on the quantity (river flow) and quality (sediment load, total nitrogen load and total phosphorus load) state of surface waters in the river Reka catchment, in the northern Mediterranean. Mediterranean areas are – due to high population density, favourable natural conditions for agriculture, limited water resources, diverse ecosystems biodiversity and expected climate change impacts – a global hotspot in climate research. Additionally, the study area lies on the border with the alpine climate zone, with a strong orographic effect on weather patterns. The location, and a wide range of studied parameters, provides an interesting insight into how various emerging climate change models may impact the status of surface waters and procedures for the governance of water resources. The study contributes to the knowledge and understanding of the climate change impact on the local catchment level, using the ensemble of the RCMs. It opens discussion about the impact of RCM selection on modelling climate changes with catchment models like Soil and Water Assessment Tool. This article also questions the usability of the results for the policy and decision makers in relation to the implementation of the results into short or long‐term water strategies or water/river management plans. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon loss by water erosion in drylands: implications from a study of vegetation change in the south‐west USA

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important component of the global carbon cycle yet is rarely quantified adequately in terms of its spatial variability resulting from losses of SOC due to erosion by water. Furthermore, in drylands, little is known about the effect of widespread vegetation change on changes in SOC stores and the potential for water erosion to redistribute SOC around the landscape especially during high‐magnitude run‐off events (flash floods). This study assesses the change in SOC stores across a shrub‐encroachment gradient in the Chihuahuan Desert of the south‐west USA. A robust estimate of SOC storage in surface soils is presented, indicating that more SOC is stored beneath vegetation than in bare soil areas. In addition, the change in SOC storage over a shrub‐encroachment gradient is shown to be nonlinear and highly variable within each vegetation type. Over the gradient of vegetation change, the heterogeneity of SOC increases, and newer carbon from C₃ plants becomes dominant. This increase in the heterogeneity of SOC is related to an increase in water erosion and SOC loss from inter‐shrub areas, which is self‐reinforcing. Shrub‐dominated drylands lose more than three times as much SOC as their grass counterparts. The implications of this study are twofold: (1) quantifying the effects of vegetation change on carbon loss via water erosion and the highly variable effects of land degradation on soil carbon stocks is critical. (2) If landscape‐scale understanding of carbon loss by water erosion in drylands is required, studies must characterize the heterogeneity of ecosystem structure and its effects on ecosystem function across ecotones subject to vegetation change. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.