Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于土地利用方式的巢湖流域氮排放情景模拟

土地利用方式及其转移对区域氮素迁移和水体氮负荷产生重要影响,但量化自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护等多情景下土地利用方式氮排放时空变化特征,揭示流域水体氮负荷对土地利用变化的响应机制仍面临挑战。本研究以巢湖流域为研究区,通过遥感解译多时相土地利用类型数据,借助PLUS和InVEST模型探索不同情景下氮排放对各土地利用类型变化的响应机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年期间,巢湖流域建设用地面积的增加(626.14 km²)主要占据的是耕地(减少了775.64 km²),城市化建设成为土地利用方式变化的主要驱动力;(2)PLUS模型多情景预测结果显示:2020—2030年间土地利用变化特征与2000—2020年基本保持一致,但各用地间的转换频率降低;(3)经InVEST模拟,耕地面积缩减而导致氮排放的减少量(340.17 t)大于建设用地等面积增加带来的氮排放增加量(170.11 t),使2000—2020年间巢湖流域土地利用所排放的总氮量呈降低趋势,由2000年的4768.04 t降至2020年的4597.98 t;(4)不同情景下,2030年各土地利用方式的氮排放量较2020年均呈降低趋势。其中,生态保护情景既有效地保障了巢湖流域生态功能又展现出较好的氮减排效果(113.36 t);鉴于此,建议流域管理部门应通过合理规划各用地类型的发展,严格控制建设用地对林草地、水域等生态用地的侵占,以期削减流域水体氮负荷、缓解氮素治理压力。     

Assessing the influence of afforestation with Eucalyptus globulus on hydrological response from a small catchment in northwestern Spain using the HBV hydrological model

Land use change as conversion pasture to forest produces several changes on hydrological cycle. In this paper, we analyse the effects on stream discharge of afforestation of a small watershed devoted to pasture using the HBV hydrological model. Streamflow data obtained over the first 10 years after planting were employed to evaluate the capacity of HBV model to simulate hydrological behaviour of catchment after afforestation. Obtained results indicate that the estimation of streamflow was accurate as reflected by statistics (R² = 0.90, NSC = 0.89 and PBIAS = 0.34). Afterwards, streamflow under pasture land use (if afforestation had not occurred) was simulated using hydrometeorological data collected during the period of study and model parameters optimized previously, together with two parameters, pcorr and cevpfo, that were adjusted for pasture conditions. The HBV model results indicate that afforestation produced a water yield reduction around 2000 mm (22% of total stream discharge) during the first 10 years of planting growth. The differences between forest and pasture land cover are increasing in all seasons year by year. The greatest streamflow reduction was observed in wet period (autumn and winter) with 76% of total reduction. In summer, streamflow reduction represents only 3% of total, however, represents 24.7% of discharge in this season. Streamflow reduction was related to increase of rainfall interception (mainly in wet periods) and the increase of evapotranspiration by plantation in dry periods. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variations in surface water nitrate concentrations in a mixed land use catchment under humid temperate climatic conditions

Streamwater nitrate (NO^―₃) concentrations along the main stream and at the outlet of several subcatchments within the 114\3 km² Zwalm watershed in Flanders, Belgium, have been monitored regularly since 1991. Land use within the Zwalm catchment is predominantly agricultural, with forested regions in the south and urban concentrations in the north‐east of the catchment. Streamwater NO^―₃ concentrations increased with increases in stream discharge rates, but in general, discharge rate explained only about 30% of the variation in NO^―₃ concentrations. The low R² values were attributed to the observed anticlockwise hysteresis in the NO^―₃ concentration – discharge relationship and to differences in NO^―₃ concentrations between both seasonal flow and various flow regimes, with winter flow explaining 51% of the variation in NO^―₃ concentrations, whereas summer flow explained only 28% of the variation. A hypothesis was formulated in which flow regime accounts for the seasonal variation in NO^―₃ export, postulating that the catchment seasonally alternates between two hydrological stages. The first stage occurs during wet winter periods, when the catchment drains as a single source area, whereas the second stage occurs during dry summer periods, when the groundwater store disconnects into separate subcatchments. This causes NO^―₃ concentration peaks to be more delayed during summer storm events compared with winter storm events. Regarding flow regimes, differences between high and low flow conditions and between increasing and stable/decreasing flow were not as pronounced a differences between seasons. In contrast to the estimation of NO^―₃ concentrations, discharge was a strong predictor (R²= 0\71) of the NO^―₃ flux within the tributaries of the Zwalm catchment. The NO^―₃ concentrations in the main stream increased with decreasing elevation, whereas the seasonal concentration patterns along the main channel were similar to those observed at the outlet. NO^―₃ concentrations varied considerably among catchments and showed a high variability over time, although in general, the variation in NO^―₃ concentration was higher between catchments than within catchments. The impact of land use is clearly reflected in the streamwater NO^―₃ concentrations, although NO^―₃ concentration patterns were also affected by topography and, to a lesser extent, by soil type. A gradual increase in NO^―₃ concentrations at the outlet of the Zwalm catchment could be observed throughout the 1991 – 1998 study period, providing evidence for the general trends of increase in Flanders, which are attributed to the intensification of agricultural activities. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future land cover and climate may drive decreases in snow wind-scour and transpiration,increasing streamflow at a Colorado,USA headwater catchment

Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km² headwater catchment spanning the alpine–subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4°C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (−15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind-scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.     

Relating hydrograph components to rainfall and streamflow: a case study from northern Taiwan

Abstract

This study investigates the characteristics of hydrograph components from a watershed in Taiwan. Hydrograph components were modelled by using a model of three serial reservoirs with one parallel reservoir. Mean rainfall was calculated by using the block kriging method. The model parameters for 38 events were calibrated by using the shuffled complex evolution optimization algorithm. The model verification was made using 18 events. Based on the study results, the following findings were obtained: (1) for single-peak events, times to peak of hydrograph components are an increasing power function of the peak time of rainfall; (2) peak discharges of hydrograph components are linearly proportional to that of total runoff, and the ratios of quick and slow runoff are approximately 83% and 17% of total runoff, respectively; and (3) the total volume of quick runoff component is 52% of total runoff and that of slow runoff is 27%.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Li, Y.-J., Cheng, S.-J. Pao, T.-L. and Bi, Y.-J., 2012. Relating hydrograph components to rainfall and streamflow: a case study from northern Taiwan. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 861–877.     

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Headwaters drive streamflow and lowland tracer export in a large-scale humid tropical catchment

Headwaters are generally assumed to contribute the majority of water to downstream users, but how much water, of what quality and where it is generated are rarely known in the humid tropics. Here, using monthly monitoring in the data scarce (2,370 km²) San Carlos catchment in northeastern Costa Rica, we determined runoff-area relationships linked to geochemical and isotope tracers. We established 46 monitoring sites covering the full range of climatic, land use and geological gradients in the catchment. Regression and cluster analysis revealed unique spatial patterns and hydrologically functional landscape units. These units were used for seasonal and annual Bayesian tracer mixing models to assess spatial water source contributions to the outlet. Generally, the Bayesian mixing analysis showed that the chemical and isotopic imprint at the outlet is throughout the year dominated by the adjacent lowland catchments (68%) with much less tracer influence from the headwaters. However, the headwater catchments contributed the bulk of water and tracers to the outlet during the dry season (>50%) despite covering less than half of the total catchment area. Additionally, flow volumes seemed to be linearly scaled by area maintaining a link between the headwaters and the outlet particularly during high flows of the rainy season. Stable isotopes indicated mean recharge elevations above the mean catchment altitude, which further supports that headwaters were the primary source of downstream water. Our spatially detailed “snap-shot” sampling enabled a viable alternative source of large-scale hydrological process knowledge in the humid tropics with limited data availability.     

Sediment modelling with fine temporal and spatial resolution for a hilly catchment

The suitability of the physically based model SHETRAN for simulating sediment generation and delivery with a high degree of spatial (20 m) and temporal (sub‐hourly) resolution was assessed through application of the model to a 167‐km² catchment leading to an estuary in New Zealand. By subdividing the catchment and conducting calculations on a computer cluster for a 6‐month hydrology initialisation period, it was possible to simulate a large rainfall event and its antecedent conditions in 24 h of computation time. The model was calibrated satisfactorily to catchment outlet flow and sediment flux for a large rainfall event in two subcatchments (~2 km²). Validation for a separate subcatchment was successful for flow (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency of 0.84) with a factor 2.1 over‐prediction for sediment load. Validation for sediment at full catchment scale using parameters from the subcatchment scale was good for flow but poor for sediment, with gross under‐estimation of the dominant stream sources of sediment. After recalibration at catchment scale, validation for a separate event gave good results for flow (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency of 0.93) and sediment load within a factor of two of measurements. An exploratory spatially explicit landslide model was added to SHETRAN, but it was not possible to test this fully because no landslides were observed in the study period. Application to climate change highlighted the non‐linear response to extreme rainfall. However, full exploration of land use and climate change and the evaluation of uncertainty were severely constrained by computational limitations. Subdivision of the catchment with separate stream routing is suggested as a way forward to overcome these limitations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metals discharged during different flow conditions from a mixed agricultural‐forest catchment (NW Spain)

Metal loads were determined from water samples collected under different streamflow conditions (baseflow and storm events) in a rural catchment (NW Spain) during 4 years. A study at annual, seasonal and storm‐event scales was carried out. In all analysed scales, the export order was Fe > Al > Mn > Zn > Cu. A high inter‐annual, seasonal and storm‐event scale variability of metal load was observed. The total metal loads in stream were higher during baseflow conditions than during storm events, which only represented 4% of the duration of the study period and 25% of streamflow. During storm events, both Al and Fe loads accounted 45% of the total load of the study period, whereas Mn, Cu and Zn loads represented 42%, 33% and 24%, respectively. This highlights the role of high flows on metal export. Only four big events exported around 30% of load of each metal transported in events. At all time scales, a prevalence of export of particulate metals over dissolved metals was observed, more pronounced for Al, Fe and Mn than for Cu and Zn. The export of metals in the Corbeira catchment is influenced by runoff and, to a lesser extent, by the rainfall amount. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Separating the effects of changes in land management and climatic conditions on long‐term streamflow trends analyzed for a small catchment in the Loess Plateau region,NW China

As an integrated result of many driving factors, significant declines in streamflow were observed in many rivers of the Loess Plateau (NW China). This can aggravate the inherent severe water shortages and threatens the regional development. Therefore, it is urgent to develop adaptive measures to regulate the water yield to ensure water security. A key step for successful implementation of such measures is to separate the response of water yield to the main driving factors of land management and climate change. In this study, the variation of annual streamflow, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and climatic water balance in a small catchment in the Loess Plateau (near Pingliang, Gansu province) was examined for over five decades, although the relative contribution of changes in land management and climate on the streamflow reduction were estimated. A statistically significant decreasing trend of ‐1.14 mm y^‐1 in annual streamflow was detected. Furthermore, an abrupt streamflow reduction because of construction of terraces and check‐dams was identified around 1980. Remarkably, 74% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow can be attributed to the soil conservation measures. Based on a literature review across the Loess Plateau, we found that the impact of changes in land management and climate on annual streamflow diminished with increasing catchment size. This means that there is a dependency on catchment size for the hydrological response to environmental change. This indicates that at least at the local scale well‐considered land management may help ensure the water security at the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of instream processes,discharge, and land cover on nitrogen export from southern Appalachian Mountain catchments

Catchments with minimal disturbance usually have low dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export, but disturbances and anthropogenic inputs result in elevated DIN concentration and export and eutrophication of downstream ecosystems. We studied streams in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA, an area dominated by hardwood deciduous forest but with areas of valley agriculture and increasing residential development. We collected weekly grab samples and storm samples from nine small catchments and three river sites. Most discharge occurred at baseflow, with baseflow indices ranging from 69% to 95%. We identified three seasonal patterns of baseflow DIN concentration. Streams in mostly forested catchments had low DIN with bimodal peaks, and summer peaks were greater than winter peaks. Streams with more agriculture and development also had bimodal peaks; however, winter peaks were the highest. In streams draining catchments with more residential development, DIN concentration had a single peak, greatest in winter and lowest in summer. Three methods for estimating DIN export produced consistent results. Annual DIN export ranged from less than 200 g ha^?1 year^?1 for the less disturbed catchments to over 2,000 g ha^?1 year^?1 in the catchments with the least forest area. Land cover was a strong predictor of DIN concentration but less significant for predicting DIN export. The two forested reference catchments appeared supply limited, the most residential catchment appeared transport limited, and export for the other catchments was significantly related to discharge. In all streams, baseflow DIN export exceeded stormflow export. Morphological and climatological variation among watersheds created complexities unexplainable by land cover. Nevertheless, regression models developed using land cover data from the small catchments reasonably predicted concentration and export for receiving rivers. Our results illustrate the complexity of mechanisms involved in DIN export in a region with a mosaic of climate, geology, topography, soils, vegetation, and past and present land use.     

Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km²) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area.     

Long‐term sediment yield from a small catchment in southern Brazil affected by land use and soil management changes

Sediments produced from eroding cultivated land can cause on‐site and off‐site effects that cause considerable economic and social impacts. Despite the importance of soil conservation practices (SCP) for the control of soil erosion and improvements in soil hydrological functions, limited information is available regarding the effects of SCP on sediment yield (SY) at the catchment scale. This study aimed to investigate the long‐term relationships between SY and land use, soil management, and rainfall in a small catchment. To determine the effects of anthropogenic and climatic factors on SY, rainfall, streamflow, and suspended sediment concentration were monitored at 10‐min intervals for 14 years (2002–2016), and the land use and soil management changes were surveyed annually. Using a statistical procedure to separate the SY effects of climate, land use, and soil management, we observed pronounced temporal effects of land use and soil management changes on SY. During the first 2 years (2002–2004), the land was predominantly cultivated with tobacco under a traditional tillage system (no cover crops and ploughed soil) using animal traction. In that period, the SY reached approximately 400 t·km^?2·year^?1. From 2005 to 2009, a soil conservation programme introduced conservation tillage and winter cover crops in the catchment area, which lowered the SY to 50 t·km^?2·year^?1. In the final period (2010–2016), the SCP were partially abandoned by farmers, and reforested areas increased, resulting in an SY of 150 t·km^?2·year^?1. This study also discusses the factors associated with the failure to continue using SCP, including structural support and farmer attitudes.     

Evaluation of the WEPP model and digital elevation grid size,for simulation of streamflow and sediment yield in a heterogeneous catchment

The paper presents the result of an application of the GeoWEPP model in a heterogeneous semi‐agricultural catchment located in the northern Italian Apennines mountain range. The objectives were: (a) to evaluate the GeoWEPP model in a heterogeneous catchment in a Mediterranean climate and (b) to examine the effect of digital elevation model grid size on hydrological and sediment yield simulations. The catchment is characterized by large heterogeneity in geology, soil type, vegetation cover and topography. In addition, 10% of its area is occupied by calanchi (badlands), characterized by steep, bare soil and accentuated erosion. Experimental streamflow data were compared with those simulated by GeoWEPP for a period of eight years and the results were evaluated by means of statistical indices, with the analysis of the flow duration curve. Simulated sediment yields were compared with experimental data for one year. The streamflow cumulative annual results were satisfactory with NSE oscillating between 0.40 and 0.83 and RMSE between 1.1 and 2.9 mm. Also, the performance of the model with daily streamflow data was positive (NSE = 0.68 and RMSE = 1.9 mm). The flow duration curve indicated that GeoWEPP could represent the experimental streamflow for fluxes over 1 mm d^?1. The model performance for simulation of sediment yield was satisfactory with both digital elevation models of different grid sizes (NSE = 0.84 and 0.87). Indeed, the sensitivity analysis tests of the model showed that there was no statistically significant improvement in the accuracy of the digital elevation model between 10 and 2 m resolution. These results were confirmed for both streamflow as well as sediment yield. Additional sensitivity analysis of other model parameters performed on the entire catchment and badlands hillslopes showed that bedrock hydraulic conductivity primarily affected the model in both settings. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.     

土地利用方式影响下的赣江硝态氮浓度和氮稳定同位素分布特征

赣江硝态氮(NO-3-N)是鄱阳湖氮素输入的主要来源,查明赣江NO-3-N来源对鄱阳湖的富营养化防治具有重要意义.基于2013年1月和6月对赣江干流和主要支流NO-3-N浓度和δ15N-NO-3的测定,通过不同空间尺度和土地类型等级划分,分析土地利用方式影响下的赣江NO-3-N浓度和δ15N-NO-3分布特征.结果表明,赣江枯水期和丰水期NO-3-N浓度分别为0.52~4.58 mg/L和0.81~2.60 mg/L,均值没有显著性差异;枯水期和丰水期的δ15N-NO-3范围分别为-1.31‰~8.60‰和2.49‰~8.51‰,枯水期均值显著小于丰水期.较大空间尺度的土地利用类型与NO-3-N浓度和δ15N-NO-3有更显著的相关性.赣江NO-3-N浓度、δ15N-NO-3与水田、居民建设用地和水域呈显著正相关,与林地、草地呈显著负相关,这种相关性在丰水期减弱.与一级土地利用分类相比,二级土地利用分类能更好地体现土地利用类型与NO-3-N浓度的相关性,但对土地利用类型与δ15N-NO-3的相关性没有显著提高.农业用地,特别是丘陵水田和平原旱地,是赣江NO-3-N主要的污染来源;与长江流域其它地区相比,赣江流域NO-3-N的生活污水来源比例较小.