Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the contribution of groundwater to streamflow in laterite catchments of the Darling Range,south-western Australia

In deeply weathered laterite catchments of the Darling Range in south-western Australia, the direct contribution (i.e., discharge) of permanent groundwater to streamflow has long been considered as minor. Instead, downslope shallow throughflow was thought to dominate, generating more than 90% of streamflow. We used a chemical hydrograph separation approach to estimate annual groundwater discharge for three catchments over periods of up to 39 years, and found that direct groundwater contributions to streamflow were far more variable across catchments and through time than has previously been acknowledged. The estimated proportion of annual streamflow sourced directly from groundwater ranged from 0 to 93% and was related linearly to the size of the groundwater discharge area in the catchment valley floor. In contrast, contributions from shallow sources including shallow throughflow varied primarily and linearly with annual rainfall. However, the response to rainfall was “amplified” in a predictable way by the size of the groundwater discharge area, consistent with the variable source area concept. We derived a functional relationship between catchment annual rainfall-runoff ratio and groundwater discharge area and successfully applied this to a further four catchments, inferring that the results were broadly applicable across the Darling Range. The implications for an improved understanding of streamflow generating processes in the study region, and for laterite catchments generally, are discussed.     

Changes in streamflow components following logging and regeneration in the southern forest of Western Australia

Two small experimental catchments were established in the south-west of Western Australia to study the effects of logging and subsequent regeneration on the mechanism of streamflow generation. Following a six year pre-treatment calibration period (1976–1981), one catchment (March Road) was logged and reforested in 1982 and the other (April Road South) remained as a control. Logging resulted in an increase in groundwater levels and subsequently groundwater discharge area. The deep, permanent groundwater levels in the valley and upslope areas rose until 1986 and then began to decline. The maximum rise was 5 m in the upslope areas. The duration of shallow, intermittent groundwater system, perched on underlying clay, was extended from 2–3 months in winter before logging to 5–6 months after logging. The shallow groundwater level rose in the valley and began to discharge at the ground surface in 1986. Logging resulted in an increase in streamflow. The maximum increase (≈18% of annual rainfall) was in 1983, one year after logging. The increase in streamflow was due to a substantial decrease in interception and evapotranspiration, increased recharge to the shallow groundwater system, decreased soil moisture deficit and consequently an increase in throughflow. The increase in base flow was about twice that of quick flow. The changes in streamflow and its components in the subsequent years were closely related to the groundwater discharge area. Most of the quick flow was generated as saturation excess overland flow from the groundwater discharge area in the valley. The expansion of the groundwater discharge area, increased soil moisture content, higher groundwater level and the presence of the shallow groundwater system for the extended periods were responsible for the process of streamflow generation.     

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects on catchment water balance from the management of Pinus plantations on the coastal lowlands of south‐east Queensland,Australia

A paired catchment study was conducted over a 10‐year period on the hydrology of an exotic Pinus plantation in the coastal lowlands of south‐east Queensland, Australia. Each catchment was instrumented with a stream monitoring station, tipping bucket rain gauge, and a network of piezometers to monitor the shallow perched water table. After a 6‐year calibration period a harvest treatment was imposed on one catchment (Review): clearfelling approximately 90% of the catchment area, which contained a mature (44‐year‐old) Pinus elliottii plantation. This subsequently was re‐established with a second rotation plantation of a hybrid of P.elliottii × P.caribaea var. hondurensis. The control catchment (Crayfish) contained a P. elliottii plantation similar to that clearfelled at Review. The post‐harvest period was monitored for a further 4 years. Evapotranspiration was found to be the major output flux, with stream flow only a minor component of the study catchments' water budget. Areas with gleyed podzolic soils were found to remain waterlogged for periods up to 7 months following the seasonally high summer rainfall period, with other soils having water logging periods of only a few months. Little change was observed in waterlogging characteristics following harvesting, in contrast to stream flow which increased for 3 years but with evidence of a decline after 5 years. The perched‐watertable piezometric surface indicated that its lateral drainage differs from that of surface flows; the perched‐watertable drainage fluxes from the study catchments seem minor and off‐site movement of solutes (e.g. nutrients and contaminants) via them would be limited. It was identified that the interaction between the perched and deep aquifers was poorly understood, as well as the relative importance of the soil moisture storage of the aquitard clay layer between them. It was concluded that there is a need to undertake more detailed analysis using modelling, and to obtain additional field data on soil‐layer properties and piezometric levels of the deep aquifer. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 2. coupled model of water and salt balances

A long-term salt balance model is coupled with the small catchment water balance model presented in Part 1 of this series of papers. The salt balance model was designed as a simple robust, conceptually based model of the fundamental salt fluxes and stores in forested and cleared catchments. The model has four interdependent stores representing salt storage in the unsaturated zone, the deep permanent saturated groundwater system, the near-stream perched groundwater system and in a ‘salt bulge’ just above the permanent water-table. The model has performed well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in south-west Western Australia. When applied to Wights catchment the salt balance model was able to predict the stream salinities prior to clearing of native forests, and the increased salinities after the clearing.     

An interbasin comparison of tree‐ring reconstructed streamflow in the eastern United States

Tree‐ring reconstructions of streamflow are uncommon in the eastern United States compared with the western United States. Although the east has not experienced severe drought on the scale of the west over the last 100 years, multiyear droughts have stressed the water management systems throughout the east. Here, we reconstruct mean May–September streamflow of three rivers serving population centers in the northeast (Beaver Kill River serving New York, NY), mid‐Atlantic (Potomac River serving Washington, DC), and southeast (Flint River serving Atlanta, GA) to demonstrate the efficacy of reconstructing streamflow in the eastern United States. Then, we conducted an interbasin comparison to identify periods of common variability and examined the influence of the North Atlantic subtropical high on reconstructed streamflow. Our models explained 40–61% of the variance in the instrumental record and passed verification tests in all basins during the period 1675–2000 CE. Droughts and pluvials showed some synchrony across all basins, but the mid‐Atlantic region acted as a hinge, sometimes behaving more like the northeast, and other times like the southeast. Climatic analyses suggest a relationship exists between the North Atlantic subtropical high and reconstructed streamflow that influences the probability of drought and pluvial events. Given the many factors influencing tree growth in closed‐canopy systems, we have shown that careful standardization of individual tree‐ring series, nested regression models, and the use of multiple species can produce robust proxies of streamflow across the eastern seaboard.     

The effects of topography and forest management on water storage in catchments in south‐central Chile

Our work analyses the intra‐annual variability of the volume of water stored in 15 forested headwater catchments from south‐central Chile, aiming at understanding how forest management, hydrology, and climate influence the dynamic components of catchment storage. Thus, we address the following questions: (a) How does the annual water storage vary in catchments located in diverse hydroclimatic conditions and subject to variable forest management? (b) Which natural (i.e., hydrologic regime and physiographic setting) and anthropogenic factors explain the variance in water storage? Results show that the annual catchment storage increases at the beginning of each hydrological year in direct response to increases in rainfall. The maximum water storage ranges from 666 to 1,272 mm in these catchments. The catchments with Pinus or Eucalyptus spp. cover store less water than the catchments with mixed forest species cover. Forest cover (biomass volume, plantation density, and percentage of plantation and age) has the primary control on dynamic storage in all catchments. These results indicate that forest management may alter the catchment water storage.     

Estimating impacts of wildfire and climate variability on streamflow in Victoria,Australia

Wildfires are common in Australia and can cause vegetation loss and affect hydrological processes such as interception, evapotranspiration, soil water storage and streamflow. This study investigates wildfire impacts on catchment mean annual streamflow for 14 Australian catchments that have been severely impacted by the 2009 Victoria wildfire, the second-worst wildfire disaster in Australia. A statistical approach based on sensitivity coefficients was used for quantifying the climate variability impacts on streamflow and the time trend analysis method was used to estimate the annual streamflow changes due to wildfire respectively. Our results show that wildfire has caused a noticeable increase in mean annual streamflow in the catchments with a burnt area above 70% for an immediate post-wildfire period (2009–2015) and the wildfire impact on streamflow is evidently larger than the climate change impact in the majority of burnt catchments. Furthermore, the wildfire impact on mean annual streamflow strongly increases with the burnt percentage area, indicated by R² = 0.73 between the two. The results also illustrate that catchments with high burnt percentage areas can have more potential to gain increased streamflow due to wildfires compared with that due to climate variability and can have significant streamflow change after wildfires above the 70% threshold of burnt area. These results provide evidence for evaluating large-scale wildfire impact on streamflow at small to medium-sized catchments, and guidance for process-based hydrological models for simulating wildfire impacts on hydrological processes for the immediate period after the wildfire.     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences of climate,terrain and land cover on stream salinity in southeastern Australia,and implications for management through reforestation

Reforestation of cleared land has the potential to reduce groundwater recharge, salt mobilization and streamflow. Stream salinity change is the net result of changes in stream salt load and streamflow. The net effect of these changes varies spatially as a function of climate, terrain and land cover. Successful natural resource management requires methods to map the spatial variability of reforestation impacts. We investigated salinity data from 2000 bores and streamflow and salinity measurements from 27 catchments in the Goulburn–Broken region in southeast Australia to assess the main factors determining stream salinity and opportunities for management through reforestation. For groundwater systems of similar geology, relationships were found between average annual rainfall and groundwater salinity and between groundwater salinity and low‐flow salinity. Despite its simplicity, we found that the steady‐state component of a simple conceptual coupled water–salt mass balance model (BC2C) adequately explained the spatial variation in streamflow and salinity. The model results suggest the efficiency of afforestation to reduce stream salinity could be increased by more than an order of magnitude through spatial planning. However, appreciable reductions in stream salinity in large rivers through land cover change alone would still require reforestation on an unprecedented scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: detecting drivers of change

The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin

To analyse the long‐term water balance of the Yellow River basin, a new hydrological model was developed and applied to the source area of the basin. The analysis involved 41 years (1960–2000) of daily observation data from 16 meteorological stations. The model is composed of the following three sub‐models: a heat balance model, a runoff formation model and a river‐routing network model. To understand the heat and water balances more precisely, the original model was modified as follows. First, the land surface was classified into five types (bare, grassland, forest, irrigation area and water surface) using a high‐resolution land‐use map. Potential evaporation was then calculated using land‐surface temperatures estimated by the heat balance model. The maximum evapotranspiration of each land surface was calculated from potential evaporation using functions of the leaf area index (LAI). Finally, actual evapotranspiration was estimated by regulating the maximum evapotranspiration using functions of soil moisture content. The river discharge estimated by the model agreed well with the observed data in most years. However, relatively large errors, which may have been caused by the overestimation of surface flow, appeared in some summer periods. The rapid decrease of river discharge in recent years in the source area of the Yellow River basin depended primarily on the decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin is influenced by land‐use changes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of streamflow to climate change and human activity in Xitiaoxi river basin in China

In recent years, the Xitiaoxi river basin in China has experienced intensified human activity, including city expansion and increased water demand. Climate change also has influenced streamflow. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity on hydrological processes is important for water resources planning and management and for the sustainable development of eco‐environmental systems. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect the trends of climatic and hydrological variables. The Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and the moving t‐test were used to locate any abrupt change of annual streamflow. A runoff model, driven by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, was employed to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow. A significant downward trend was detected for annual streamflow from 1975 to 2009, and an abrupt change occurred in 1999, which was consistent with the change detected by the double mass curve test between streamflow and precipitation. The annual precipitation decreased slightly, but upward trends of annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration were significant. The annual streamflow during the period 1999–2009 decreased by 26.19% compared with the reference stage, 1975–1998. Climate change was estimated to be responsible for 42.8% of the total reduction in annual streamflow, and human activity accounted for 57.2%. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Synergistic effects of water repellency and macropore flow on the hydraulic conductivity of a burned forest soil,south‐east Australia

Research shows that water repellency is a key hydraulic property that results in reduced infiltration rates in burned soils. However, more work is required in order to link the hydrological behaviour of water repellent soils to observed runoff responses at the plot and hillslope scale. This study used 5 M ethanol and water in disc infiltrometers to quantify the role of macropore flow and water repellency on spatial and temporal infiltration patterns in a burned soil at plot (<10 m²) scale in a wet eucalypt forest in south‐east Australia. In the first summer and winter after wildfire, an average of 70% and 60%, respectively, of the plot area was water repellent and did not contribute to infiltration. Macropores (r > 0·5 mm), comprising just 5·5% of the soil volume, contributed to 70% and 95%, respectively, of the field‐saturated and ponded hydraulic conductivity (K_p). Because flow occurred almost entirely via macropores in non‐repellent areas, this meant that less than 2·5% of the soil surface effectively contributed to infiltration. The hydraulic conductivity increased by a factor of up to 2·5 as the hydraulic head increased from 0 to 5 mm. Due to the synergistic effect of macropore flow and water repellency, the coefficient of variation (CV) in K_p was three times higher in the water‐repellent soil (CV = 175%) than under the simulated non‐repellent conditions (CV = 66%). The high spatial variability in K_p would act to reduce the effective infiltration rate during runoff generation at plot scale. Ponding, which tend to increase with increasing scale, activates flow through macropores and would raise the effective infiltration rates at larger scales. Field experiments designed to provide representative measurements of infiltration after fire in these systems must therefore consider both the inherent variability in hydraulic conductivity and the variability in infiltration caused by interactions between surface runoff and hydraulic conductivity. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi‐species dendroclimatic reconstruction of Chilko River streamflow,British Columbia,Canada

Dendroclimatological data were used to reconstruct the discharge history of Chilko River, which drains a glacierized watershed in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia. We correlated ring‐width records from Engelmann spruce (ES) (Picea engelmanni) and mountain hemlock (MH) (Tsuga mertensiana) trees to historical hydroclimate data. Over the period of record, spruce and hemlock radial growth correlates significantly with temperature and snow depth, respectively. We found that a multi‐species approach provided a better model fit and reconstructive power. Using these relationships, we developed generalized linear models for mean June, July, and June‐July discharge. The proxy records provide insights into streamflow variability of a typical Coast Mountains river over the past 240 years and confirm the long‐term influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on hydroclimatic regimes in the region. A relationship also exists between the reconstructed June‐July discharge record and the North Pacific (NP) Index, suggesting that winter atmospheric patterns over the North Pacific influence the hydrology of coastal British Columbia. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of groundwater discharge rates and water residence time of groundwater‐fed lakes by stable isotopes of water (18O, 2H) and radon (222Rn) mass balances

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) and the related water residence time are crucial parameters for quantifying lake matter budgets and assessing its vulnerability to contaminant input. Our approach utilizes the stable isotopes of water (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and the radioisotope radon (²²²Rn) for determining long‐term average and short‐term snapshots in LGD. We conducted isotope balances for the 0.5‐km² Lake Ammelshainer See (Germany) based on measurements of lake isotope inventories and groundwater composition accompanied by good quality and comprehensive long‐term meteorological and isotopic data (precipitation) from nearby monitoring stations. The results from the steady‐state annual isotope balances that rely on only two sampling campaigns are consistent for both δ¹⁸O and δ²H and suggested an overall long‐term average LGD rate that was used to infer the water residence time of the lake. These findings were supported by the good agreement of the simulated LGD‐driven annual cycles of δ¹⁸O and δ²H lake inventories with the observed lake isotope inventories. However, radon mass balances revealed lower values that might be the result of seasonal LGD variability. For obtaining further insights into possible seasonal variability of groundwater–lake interaction, stable water isotope and radon mass balances could be conducted more frequently (e.g., monthly) in order to use the derived groundwater discharge rates as input for time‐variant isotope balances.     

Inter‐comparison of hydro‐climatic regimes across northern catchments: synchronicity,resistance and resilience

The higher mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter‐catchment comparison program, North‐Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North‐Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify ‘types’ of hydro‐climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10‐year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter‐annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual‐scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall–runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A process-based approach to attribution of historical streamflow decline in a data-scarce and human-dominated watershed

Human activities have resulted in rapid hydrological change around the world, in many cases producing shifts in the dominant hydrological processes, confounding predictions, and complicating effective management and planning. Identifying and characterizing such changes in hydrological processes is therefore a globally relevant problem, one that is particularly challenging in sparsely monitored environments. We develop a novel, process-based approach for attribution of hydrological change in such scenarios and apply the approach to the TG Halli watershed outside Bangalore, India, where streamflow has declined considerably over the last 50 years. The approach consists of (a) employing a range of field instrumentation and experiments to identify contemporary streamflow generation mechanisms, (b) using these observations to constrain our understanding and generate hypotheses pertaining to historical changes, and (c) evaluating these hypotheses with a range of evidence including proxies for historical hydrological processes. The body of evidence in the TG Halli watershed indicates the historical presence and subsequent loss of a shallow groundwater table that previously discharged to the stream, meaning that groundwater depletion is the most likely driver of streamflow decline. These findings present a viable path towards improved predictions of future water resources and sustainable water management within the watershed. Our process-based approach to attribution has the potential to improve understanding of human-driven hydrological change in regions with poor monitoring of hydrological systems.