Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response

Following many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre‐optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias‐Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a Lagrangian model to estimate source regions of particles in sediment traps

A Lagrangian model is used to evaluate source regions of particles collected in the sediment traps at the DYFAMED(Dynamique des Flux Atmosphériques en Méditerranée) station by tracking particles backwards from March 1 to August 31, 2001. The analysis suggests that source regions depend on the flow fields, the settling speed of the particles, and the deployment depths of the traps. Monthly variation is observed in the distribution patterns of source regions, which is caused by the currents. The source regions are located around the traps and up to hundreds of kilometers away. As the settling speed increases with the particle diameters, the distance to the source regions decreases. The vertical flux can be approximately estimated in 1D for the particles with diameters larger than 500 μm. Furthermore, traps moored at various depths at the DYFAMED can collect particles that originated from different regions in the Ligurian Sea.     

Reservoir regulation by means of a ‘goal-oriented’ inflow predictor

A reservoir regulation scheme for the control of deficiency yields is described in the paper. According to such scheme, at the end of each decade (=ten days) the release in the following decade is established on the basis of current storage, downstream users' requirements and forecast of future inflows. Such forecast is supplied by a mathematical predictor, namely a recursive relationship, which points out the most likely values of future inflows on the basis of current and recent inflow measurements. It is a goal-oriented predictor, in the sense that its parameters are evaluated through a procedure, which takes into account the objective of reservoir regulation (=control of downstream deficits). The regulation scheme is applied to a real case and the resulting sequence of yearly deficits is evaluated. Such deficits are compared with the ones obtained by introducing a different (=non-goal-oriented) predictor into the scheme.     

Observations of ‘freezing-induced redistribution’ in soil lysimeters

Data are presented of vertical profiles of soil water potential and soil temperature from a field lysimeter experiment with automatic water-table control at Silwood Park, Ascot, UK. The observed water-table fluxes confirm the analysis of profile response, which shows a diurnal pattern of upward water movement as a result of surface freezing, followed by reversed flow when soil thawing occurs. The results provide a clear, and relatively rare, illustration of the phenomenon of freezing-induced redistribution.     

Subsurface storm flow formation at different hillslopes and implications for the ‘old water paradox’

Although many studies over the past several decades have documented the importance of subsurface stormflow (SSF) in hillslopes, its formation is still not well understood. Therefore, we studied SSF formation in the vadose soil zone at four different hillslopes during controlled sprinkling experiments and natural rainfall events. Event and pre‐event water fractions were determined using artificially traced sprinkling water and ²²²Rn as natural tracer. SSF formation and the fraction of pre‐event water varied substantially at different hillslopes. Both intensity of SSF and fraction of pre‐event water depended on whether SSF in preferential flow paths was fed directly from precipitation or was fed indirectly from saturated parts of the soil. Soil water was rapidly mobilized from saturated patches in the soil matrix and was subsequently released into larger pores, where it mixed with event water. Substantial amounts of pre‐event water, therefore, were contained in fast flow components like subsurface storm flow and also in overland flow. This finding has consequences for commonly used hydrograph separation methods and might explain part of the ‘old water paradox’. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deposition and resuspension of fine particles in a riverine ‘dead zone’

Particulate matter suspended in the River Severn (Shropshire, UK) consists chiefly of clay-sized mineral particles, together with living and dead micro-organisms (algae and bacteria). Its concentration depends strongly on discharge, but the particle size distribution shows no systematic variability. For most samples, the particle volume is log-normally distributed with respect to diameter, the mean diameter being ca. 9 μm. The particles are mainly aggregates, including some with linear dimensions of the order of tens or hundreds of micrometres. Particle density depends appreciably on size, decreasing from ca. 2.5 × 10⁶ g m^?3 at a diameter of 2.5 μm to ca. 1.3 × 10⁶ g m ^?3 at 20 μm. The collision efficiency factor for particle aggregation is estimated to be 0.01–0.03. At low discharge, the ‘dead zone’ in the River Severn at Leighton is a well defined region of stagnant water behind a gravel bar. The rate of deposition of fine particles on its bed is of the order of tens of grams per square metre per day. Resuspension requires a critical bed shear velocity of 0.03–0.04 m s^?1, which occurs at main river discharges greater than about 150 m³ s^?1. Under such conditions the gravel bar is underwater and the dead zone is a region of highly turbulent return flow. A simple mechanistic model of particle dynamics in the dead zone accounts reasonably well for particle accumulation rates when run with parameter values based on measured particle and hydraulic properties. Calculations with the model suggest that most of the sedimentation flux to the dead zone bed is due to particles with equivalent sphere diameters in the range 30–240 μm. Simulations indicate that deposition proceeded continuously during spring and summer, whereas repeated deposition and resuspension occurred in autumn and winter.     

Estimation of local site effects by a generalized inversion scheme using observed records of ‘Small-Titan’

A simple-extended array of observation for strong motions, named ‘Small-Titan’, was installed in Sendai City, Japan in 1997. This array system consists of 20 observation sites, which have an average of about 4 km for the station-to-station distance. Each observation station was located at various kinds of soils to effectively obtain local site effects. Since its completion, the system has obtained about 160 motion records. As is well known, ground motions are influenced by the three main factors such as source, path and local site effects. An accurate prediction of ground motions should thus be performed based on the three factors. In this context, theoretical methods used commonly lack enough information related with source and path effects. A generalized inversion scheme to separate the effects of source, propagation path and local site from S-wave spectra was applied to the records of Small-Titan obtained in the Sendai region, Japan. The objective of this paper is to estimate local site effects in Sendai City and to obtain meaningful information of input motions available to earthquake-resistant design, aimed at setting in terms of local soil conditions. This paper also describes the applicability of the generalized inversion scheme to seismic zoning.

Site amplification factors estimated from the generalized inversion scheme vary significantly, reflecting the effects of soil characteristics at each site. Strong site-dependency was found in the site amplification factors. In particular, the local site amplification factors in the western side are smaller than those in the eastern side, across the Nagamachi–Rifu Fault that exists in the central part of the Sendai area. Results from the generalized inversion scheme are compared with those obtained by the direct spectral ratio scheme, the H/V method and the bootstrap inversion. There is a good agreement in the amplification factors between the generalized inversion scheme, the direct spectral ratio scheme and the bootstrap inversion scheme. The H/V method for estimating site amplification is found to extract the same dominant periods as the other methods. This paper especially emphasizes a good agreement in not only dominant period, but also amplification factor.

The generalized inversion scheme is a useful method in separating the effects of source, propagation path and local site and in revealing the site amplification. In addition, the generalized inversion scheme provides meaningful information of input motions available to earthquake-resistant design, aimed at setting in terms of local soil conditions. Moreover, this paper indicates that the generalized inversion scheme is applicable to the seismic zoning toward disaster mitigation.     

On the assessment of the management priority of sediment source areas in a debris‐flow catchment

In many Alpine catchments the monitoring and hazard mitigation of debris‐flow events require enormous economic and social resources. To confront these problems, a subjective estimation of the most hazardous zones of the basin could be useful in the best, sustainable planning of protective measures. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed that develops a Management Priority Index (MPI) to rank sediment source areas by their quantitative capability to deliver debris‐flow volumes to a point of interest within the catchment. The MPI sets the intervention priority based on a combination of three sub‐indicators: a susceptibility indicator evaluating the overall catchment predisposition to generate debris flow, a triggering indicator and a volume budget indicator assessing the rate of deliverable volume to a selected outlet. MPI was applied to the basin of the Rio Gadria catchment (Venosta Valley, Bolzano, Italy), an alpine basin with an unlimited sediment supply that is characterized by multiple, very active, shallow landslides and bare soil zones. The proposed ranking method was successfully verified using post‐event surveys and through evidence from consolidation check dams built over many years in the basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High flow events and sediment transport in small streams in the ‘tertiary basin’ area in piedmont (Northwest Italy)

Rainfall, peak discharges, and suspended sediment transport were surveyed for 280 events in three small (0.8 to 10 km²) catchments in a hilly area derived from Neogene marls, silts, and sands. Under similar hydrological input conditions, stream flow behaviour and sediment delivery differed considerably from one catchment to another, depending on topography, lithology, land use, and especially sediment availability. Analytical treatment of data showed a good fit between sediment yield and peak flow discharge. Less good, although still significant, was the correlation between sediment concentration and discharge values for different flow stages. Rainfall peak/basin lag time and rainfall/discharge showed poor or no correlation, mainly due to strong variations in rainfall distribution. Sediment concentration in the catchments varied enormously according to season, from zero up to 334 g 1^?1; sediment yield was 160-900 tonnes km^?2 yr^?1 in the two major catchments, and over 5200 tonnes km^?2 yr^?1 in the headwater catchment, stressing the importance of small tributaries not only in inducing floods in downstream channels, but also in sediment supply.     

Development of a new rubber seismic isolator: ‘Ball Rubber Bearing (BRB)’

This paper presents an experimental research aimed at developing a new rubber‐based seismic isolator called ‘Ball Rubber Bearing (BRB)’. The BRB is composed of a conventional steel‐reinforced multi‐layered rubber bearing with its central hole filled with small diameter steel balls that are used to provide energy dissipation capacity through friction. A large set of BRBs with different geometrical and material properties are manufactured and tested under reversed cyclic horizontal loading at different vertical compressive load levels. Extensive test results indicate that steel balls do not only increase the energy dissipation capacity of the elastomeric bearing (EB), but also increase its horizontal and vertical stiffness. It is also observed that the energy dissipation capacity of a BRB does not degrade as the number of loading cycles increases. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.