Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models

In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying aggregation and change in runoff source in accordance with catchment area increase in a forested headwater catchment

There has been a great deal of research interest regarding changes in flow path/runoff source with increases in catchment area. However, there have been very few quantitative studies taking subscale variability and convergence of flow path/runoff source into account, especially in relation to headwater catchments. This study was performed to elucidate how the contributions and discharge rates of subsurface water (water in the soil layer) and groundwater (water in fractured bedrock) aggregate and change with catchment area increase, and to elucidate whether the spatial variability of the discharge rate of groundwater determines the spatial variability of stream discharge or groundwater contribution. The study area was a 5‐km² forested headwater catchment in Japan. We measured stream discharge at 113 points and water chemistry at 159 points under base flow conditions. End‐member mixing analysis was used to separate stream water into subsurface water and groundwater. The contributions of both subsurface water and groundwater had large variability below 1 km². The contribution of subsurface water decreased markedly, while that of groundwater increased markedly, with increases in catchment area. The specific discharge of subsurface water showed a large degree of variability and decreased with catchment area below 0.1 km², becoming almost constant above 0.1 km². The specific discharge of groundwater showed large variability below 1 km² and increased with catchment area. These results indicated that the variabilities of stream discharge and groundwater contribution corresponded well with the variability of the discharge rate of groundwater. However, below 0.1 km², it was necessary to consider variations in the discharge rates of both subsurface water and groundwater. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved simulation of river water and groundwater exchange in an alluvial plain using the SWAT model

Hydrological interaction between surface and subsurface water systems has a significant impact on water quality, ecosystems and biogeochemistry cycling of both systems. Distributed models have been developed to simulate this function, but they require detailed spatial inputs and extensive computation time. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is a semi‐distributed model that has been successfully applied around the world. However, it has not been able to simulate the two‐way exchanges between surface water and groundwater. In this study, the SWAT‐landscape unit (LU) model – based on a catena method that routes flow across three LUs (the divide, the hillslope and the valley) – was modified and applied in the floodplain of the Garonne River. The modified model was called SWAT‐LUD. Darcy's equation was applied to simulate groundwater flow. The algorithm for surface water‐level simulation during flooding periods was modified, and the influence of flooding on groundwater levels was added to the model. Chloride was chosen as a conservative tracer to test simulated water exchanges. The simulated water exchange quantity from SWAT‐LUD was compared with the output of a two‐dimensional distributed model, surface–subsurface water exchange model. The results showed that simulated groundwater levels in the LU adjoining the river matched the observed data very well. Additionally, SWAT‐LUD model was able to reflect the actual water exchange between the river and the aquifer. It showed that river water discharge has a significant influence on the surface–groundwater exchanges. The main water flow direction in the river/groundwater interface was from groundwater to river; water that flowed in this direction accounted for 65% of the total exchanged water volume. The water mixing occurs mainly during high hydraulic periods. Flooded water was important for the surface–subsurface water exchange process; it accounted for 69% of total water that flowed from the river to the aquifer. The new module also provides the option of simulating pollution transfer occurring at the river/groundwater interface at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of grid resolution on the integrated and distributed response of a coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model for the des Anglais catchment,Quebec

Digital elevation models (DEMs) at different resolutions (180, 360, and 720 m) are used to examine the impact of different levels of landscape representation on the hydrological response of a 690‐km² catchment in southern Quebec. Frequency distributions of local slope, plan curvature, and drainage area are calculated for each grid size resolution. This landscape analysis reveals that DEM grid size significantly affects computed topographic attributes, which in turn explains some of the differences in the hydrological simulations. The simulations that are then carried out, using a coupled, process‐based model of surface and subsurface flow, examine the effects of grid size on both the integrated response of the catchment (discharge at the main outlet and at two internal points) and the distributed response (water table depth, surface saturation, and soil water storage). The results indicate that discharge volumes increase as the DEM is coarsened, and that coarser DEMs are also wetter overall in terms of water table depth and soil water storage. The reasons for these trends include an increase in the total drainage area of the catchment for larger DEM cell sizes, due to aggregation effects at the boundary cells of the catchment, and to a decrease in local slope and plan curvature variations, which in turn limits the capacity of the watershed to transmit water downslope and laterally. The results obtained also show that grid resolution effects are less pronounced during dry periods when soil moisture dynamics are mostly controlled by vertical fluxes of evaporation and percolation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of preferential flow on hillslope hydrology in a semi‐arid watershed (in the Spanish Dehesas)

Preferential flow is known to influence hillslope hydrology in many areas around the world. Most research on preferential flow has been performed in temperate regions. Preferential infiltration has also been found in semi‐arid regions, but its impact on the hydrology of these regions is poorly known. The aim of this study is to describe and quantify the influence of preferential flow on the hillslope hydrology from small scale (infiltration) to large scale (subsurface stormflow) in a semi‐arid Dehesa landscape. Precipitation, soil moisture content, piezometric water level and discharge data were used to analyse the hydrological functioning of a catchment in Spain. Variability of soil moisture content during the transition from dry to wet season (September to November) within horizontal soil layers leads to the conclusion that there is preferential infiltration into the soils. When the rainfall intensity is high, a water level rapidly builds up in the piezometer pipes in the area, sometimes even reaching soil surface. This water level also drops back to bedrock within a few hours (under dry catchment conditions) to days (under wet catchment conditions). As the soil matrix is not necessarily wet while this water layer is built up, it is thought to be a transient water table in large connected pores which drain partly to the matrix, partly fill up bedrock irregularities and partly drain through subsurface flow to the channels. When the soil matrix becomes wetter the loss of water from macropores to the matrix and bedrock decreases and subsurface stormflow increases. It may be concluded that the hillslope hydrological system consists of a fine matrix domain and a macropore domain, which have their own flow characteristics but which also interact, depending on the soil matrix and macropore moisture contents. The macropore flow can result in subsurface flow, ranging from 13% contribution to total discharge for a large event of high intensity rainfall or high discharge to 80% of total discharge for a small event with low intensity rainfall or low discharge. During large events the fraction of subsurface stormflow in the discharge is suppressed by the large amount of surface runoff. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Panday and Huyakorn surface–subsurface hydrology test case: analysis of internal flow dynamics

A number of previous studies using models of integrated surface‐subsurface hydrology have adopted the Panday and Huyakorn (P&H) tilted V‐catchment test case (Panday S, Huyakorn PS. 2004. A fully coupled spatially distributed model for evaluating surface/subsurface flow. Advances in Water Resources 27: 361–382) to show inter‐code comparability. The P&H test case is used to evaluate models that simulate a broad range of hydrological processes, and yet only the catchment outflow hydrograph has been presented as verification of the consistency between codes. Therefore, a more comprehensive evaluation of the surface‐subsurface hydrology of the P&H case is needed. This study explores the internal catchment functioning of the P&H case, using the popular catchment simulator MODHMS. The processes leading to streamflow generation in the model are illustrated, including separation of overland flow (OLF) and groundwater discharge to the stream. The results identify non‐physical flow processes due to the problem set‐up, and modifications to the P&H case are suggested that include changes to stream roughness and incision of the stream channel to overcome these shortcomings. A modified P&H case produced more plausible transfers between OLF and the stream, and an increased groundwater discharge to the stream (6·5% of streamflow in the modified case compared to 0·5% in the original case). Despite changes to internal flow processes, near‐identical outflow hydrographs were obtained, showing the importance of considering and comparing internal flow processes when using surface‐subsurface hydrology test cases to evaluate integrated hydrological simulators. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A physically based distributed subsurface–surface flow dynamics model for forested mountainous catchments

This study was designed to develop a physically based hydrological model to describe the hydrological processes within forested mountainous river basins. The model describes the relationships between hydrological fluxes and catchment characteristics that are influenced by topography and land cover. Hydrological processes representative of temperate basins in steep terrain that are incorporated in the model include intercepted rainfall, evaporation, transpiration, infiltration into macropores, partitioning between preferential flow and soil matrix flow, percolation, capillary rise, surface flow (saturation‐excess and return flow), subsurface flow (preferential subsurface flow and baseflow) and spatial water‐table dynamics. The soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer scheme used was the single‐layer Penman–Monteith model, although a two‐layer model was also provided. The catchment characteristics include topography (elevation, topographic indices), slope and contributing area, where a digital elevation model provided flow direction on the steepest gradient flow path. The hydrological fluxes and catchment characteristics are modelled based on the variable source‐area concept, which defines the dynamics of the watershed response. Flow generated on land for each sub‐basin is routed to the river channel by a kinematic wave model. In the river channel, the combined flows from sub‐basins are routed by the Muskingum–Cunge model to the river outlet; these comprise inputs to the river downstream. The model was applied to the Hikimi river basin in Japan. Spatial decadal values of the normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index were used for the yearly simulations. Results were satisfactory, as indicated by model efficiency criteria, and analysis showed that the rainfall input is not representative of the orographic lifting induced rainfall in the mountainous Hikimi river basin. Also, a simple representation of the effects of preferential flow within the soil matrix flow has a slight significance for soil moisture status, but is insignificant for river flow estimations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to model shallow water‐table depth variations: the case of the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment,France

The aim of this work is threefold: (1) to identify the main characteristics of water‐table variations from observations in the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment, a small catchment located in western France; (2) to confront these characteristics with the assumptions of the Topmodel concepts; and (3) to analyse how relaxation of the assumptions could improve the simulation of distributed water‐table depth. A network of piezometers was installed in the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment and the water‐table depth was recorded every 15 min in each piezometer from 1997 to 2000. From these observations, the Kervidy‐Naizin groundwater appears to be characteristic of shallow groundwaters of catchments underlain by crystalline bedrock, in view of the strong relation between water distribution and topography in the bottom land of the hillslopes. However, from midslope to summit, the water table can attain a depth of many metres, it does not parallel the topographic surface and it remains very responsive to rainfall. In particular, hydraulic gradients vary with time and are not equivalent to the soil surface slope. These characteristics call into question some assumptions that are used to model shallow lateral subsurface flow in saturated conditions. We investigate the performance of three models (Topmodel, a kinematic model and a diffusive model) in simulating the hourly distributed water‐table depths along one of the hillslope transects, as well as the hourly stream discharge. For each model, two sets of parameters are identified following a Monte Carlo procedure applied to a simulation period of 2649 h. The performance of each model with each of the two parameter sets is evaluated over a test period of 2158 h. All three models, and hence their underlying assumptions, appear to reproduce adequately the stream discharge variations and water‐table depths in bottom lands at the foot of the hillslope. To simulate the groundwater depth distribution over the whole hillslope, the steady‐state assumption (Topmodel) is quite constraining and leads to unacceptable water‐table depths in midslope and summit areas. Once this assumption is relaxed (kinematic model), the water‐table simulation is improved. A subsequent relaxation of the hydraulic gradient (diffusive model) further improves water‐table simulations in the summit area, while still yielding realistic water‐table depths in the bottom land. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A catchment framework for one‐dimensional models: introducing FLUSH and its application

A new modelling framework capable of incorporating detailed one‐dimensional models in a catchment context is presented which can be used to asses the hydrological implications (recharge, discharge, salt movement) of different land uses on different parts of the catchment. The modelling framework incorporates farming systems models and, thus, simulates crop and pasture production, whilst also accounting for lateral fluxes of water (surface and subsurface) and groundwater recharge and discharge. The framework was applied to Simmons Creek catchment, a subcatchment of the Billabong Creek in southern New South Wales, comprising gentle uplands and substantial low‐relief areas containing swamps. An integrated approach incorporating soil, hydrology, hydrogeology, and terrain analysis resulted in interpretation of landscape function and the necessary parameterization of the modelling framework. Current land use (crop rotation and pasture) and an alternative land use (10% trees on uphill units and pasture in the lower lying lands) were simulated to compare the relative contribution of parts of the catchment with total recharge. Comparison between current and alternative land use over 44 years of simulations indicated a decrease of mean annual drainage from 39 to 29 mm year^?1 and an average reduction of the groundwater level of about 0·4 m. A more substantial decrease in water‐table depth would require targeted tree planting over larger areas. This can be investigated further with the spatial framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of forest conversion and agriculture practices on water pathways in Southern Brazil

Land‐use/cover change (LUCC), and more specifically deforestation and multidecadal agriculture, is one of the various controlling factors of water fluxes at the hillslope or catchment scale. We investigated the impact of LUCC on water pathways and stream stormflow generation processes in a subtropical region in southern Brazil. We monitored, sampled and analysed stream water, pore water, subsurface water, and rainwater for dissolved silicon concentration (DSi) and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O (δ¹⁸O) signature to identify contributing sources to the streamflow under forest and under agriculture. Both forested and agricultural catchments were highly responsive to rainfall events in terms of discharge and shallow groundwater level. DSi versus δ¹⁸O scatter plots indicated that for both land‐use types, two run‐off components contributed to the stream discharge. The presence of a dense macropore network, combined with the presence of a compact and impeding B‐horizon, led to rapid subsurface flow in the forested catchment. In the agricultural catchment, the rapid response to rainfall was mostly due to surface run‐off. A 2‐component isotopic hydrograph separation indicated a larger contribution of rainfall water to run‐off during rainfall event in the agricultural catchments. We attributed this higher contribution to a decrease in topsoil hydraulic conductivity associated with agricultural practices. The chemical signature of the old water component in the forested catchment was very similar to that of the shallow groundwater and the pore soil water: It is therefore likely that the shallow groundwater was the main source of old water. This is not the case in the agricultural catchments where the old water component had a much higher DSi concentration than the shallow groundwater and the soil pore water. As the agricultural catchments were larger, this may to some extent simply be a scale effect. However, the higher water yields under agriculture and the high DSi concentration observed in the old water under agriculture suggest a significant contribution of deep groundwater to catchment run‐off under agriculture, suggesting that LUCC may have significant effects on weathering rates and patterns.     

Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate system – Dynamic coupling across different modelling domains

To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling system. The OpenMI modelling interface is used to couple a comprehensive hydrological modelling system, MIKE SHE running on personal computers, and a regional climate modelling system, HIRHAM running on a high performance computing platform. The coupled model enables two-way interaction between the atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological impacts are assessed at the catchment scale, the most important scale for water management. Feedback between groundwater, the land surface and the atmosphere occurs across a range of scales. Recognising this, the coupling was developed to allow dynamic exchange of water and energy at the catchment scale embedded within a larger meso-scale modelling domain. We present the coupling methodology used and describe the challenges in representing the exchanges between models and across scales. The coupled model is applied to one-way and two-way coupled simulations for a managed groundwater-dominated catchment, the Skjern River, Denmark. These coupled model simulations are evaluated against field observations and then compared with uncoupled climate and hydrological model simulations. Exploratory simulations show significant differences, particularly in the summer for precipitation and evapotranspiration the coupled model including groundwater and the RCM where groundwater is neglected. However, the resulting differences in the net precipitation and the catchment runoff in this groundwater dominated catchment were small. The need for further decadal scale simulations to understand the differences and insensitivity is highlighted.     

Comparison of two modeling approaches for groundwater–surface water interactions

An assessment of interactions between groundwater and surface water was carried out by applying two different modeling approaches to a small‐scale study area in the municipality of Havelock, Quebec. The first approach involved a commonly used sequential procedure that consists in determining the daily recharge rate using a quasi 2D infiltration model (HELP), applied in the next step as an imposed flux to a 3D finite‐element groundwater flow model. The flow model was calibrated under steady‐state and transient conditions against measured water levels. The second approach was based on a recently developed physically based, 3D fully coupled groundwater–surface water flow model (CATHY) applied to the entire flow domain in an integrated manner. Implementation, calibration, and results of the simulations for both approaches are presented and discussed. For equal annual precipitation (1038 mm/y) and evapotranspiration (556 mm/y), the second approach computed a recharge rate of 233 mm/y (8.9% higher than the first approach) and a net upward flow from the fractured aquifer (the first approach predicted a net downward flow to the rock). The simulated annual discharge was similar for the two approaches (9.6% difference). Both approaches were found to be useful in understanding the interactions between groundwater and surface water, although limitations are apparent in the sequential procedure's inability to account for surface–subsurface feedbacks, for instance near stream reaches where groundwater discharge is prevalent. The decoupled, two‐model approach provides disaggregated surface, vadose, and aquifer flows, and a simple aperçu at the different components of total discharge. The fully coupled model accounts for continuous water exchanges between the land surface, subsurface, and stream channel in a more complex manner, and produces a better match against observed data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lateral terrestrial water flow contribution to summer precipitation at continental scale – A comparison between Europe and West Africa with WRF-Hydro-tag ensembles

It is well accepted that summer precipitation can be altered by soil moisture condition. Coupled land surface – atmospheric models have been routinely used to quantify soil moisture – precipitation feedback processes. However, most of the land surface models (LSMs) assume a vertical soil water transport and neglect lateral terrestrial water flow at the surface and in the subsurface, which potentially reduces the realism of the simulated soil moisture – precipitation feedback. In this study, the contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to summer precipitation is assessed in two different climatic regions, Europe and West Africa, for the period June–September 2008. A version of the coupled atmospheric-hydrological model WRF-Hydro with an option to tag and trace land surface evaporation in the modelled atmosphere, named WRF-Hydro-tag, is employed. An ensemble of 30 simulations with terrestrial routing and 30 simulations without terrestrial routing is generated with random realizations of turbulent energy with the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme, for both Europe and West Africa. The ensemble size allows to extract random noise from continental-scale averaged modelled precipitation. It is found that lateral terrestrial water flow increases the relative contribution of land surface evaporation to precipitation by 3.6% in Europe and 5.6% in West Africa, which enhances a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback and generates more uncertainty in modelled precipitation, as diagnosed by a slight increase in normalized ensemble spread. This study demonstrates the small but non-negligible contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to precipitation at continental scale.     

Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic conductivity and Manning's n parameters lead to new method to scale effective hydraulic conductivity across model resolutions

Hydrological modelling is an important tool for research, policy, and management, but uncertainty remains about parameters transferability from field observations made at small scale to models at the catchment scale and larger. This uncertainty compels the need to develop parameter relationships that are translatable across scale. In this study, we compare the changes to modelled processes as resolution is coarsened from 100‐m to 1‐km in a topographically complex, 255‐km² Colorado River headwater catchment. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for hydraulic conductivity (K) and Manning's n parameters across four orders of magnitude. Results showed that K acts as a moderator between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, whereas n moderates the duration of high intensity, infiltration‐excess flow. The parametric sensitivity analysis informed development of a new method to scale effective hydraulic conductivity across modelling resolutions in order to compensate for the loss of topographic gradients as resolution is coarsened. A similar mathematical relationship between n and lateral resolution changes was not found, possibly because n is also sensitive to time discretization. This research provides an approach to translate hydraulic conductivity parameters from a calibrated coarse model to higher resolutions where the number of simulations are limited by computational demand.     

Water balance estimation under the challenge of data scarcity in a hyperarid to Mediterranean region

Water budget analyses are important for the evaluation of the water resources in semiarid and arid regions. The lack of observed data is the major obstacle for hydrological modelling in arid regions. The aim of this study is the analysis and calculation of the natural water resources of the Western Dead Sea subsurface catchment, one which is highly sensitive to rainfall resulting in highly variable temporal and spatial groundwater recharge. We focus on the subsurface catchment and subsequently apply the findings to a large‐scale groundwater flow model to estimate the groundwater discharge to the Dead Sea. We apply a semidistributed hydrological model (J2000g), originally developed for the Mediterranean, to the hyperarid region of the Western Dead Sea catchment, where runoff data and meteorological records are sparsely available. The challenge is to simulate the water budget, where the localized nature of extreme rainstorms together with sparse runoff data results in few observed runoff and recharge events. To overcome the scarcity of climate input data, we enhance the database with mean monthly rainfall data. The rainfall data of 2 satellites are shown to be unsuitable to fill the missing rainfall data due to underrepresentation of the steep hydrological gradient and temporal resolution. Hydrological models need to be calibrated against measured values; hence, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. Therefore, our calibration approach is based on a nested strategy of diverse observations. We calculate a direct surface runoff of the Western Dead Sea surface area (1,801 km²) of 3.4 mm/a and an average recharge (36.7 mm/a) for the 3,816 km² subsurface drainage basin of the Cretaceous aquifer system.     

A low‐dimensional hillslope‐based catchment model for layered groundwater flow

Despite the strong interaction between surface and subsurface waters, groundwater flow representation is often oversimplified in hydrological models. For instance, the interplay between local or shallow aquifers and deeper regional‐scale aquifers is typically neglected. In this work, a novel hillslope‐based catchment model for the simulation of combined shallow and deep groundwater flow is presented. The model consists of the hillslope‐storage Boussinesq (hsB) model representing shallow groundwater flow and an analytic element (AE) model representing deep regional groundwater flow. The component models are iteratively coupled via a leakage term based on Darcy's law, representing delayed recharge to the regional aquifer through a low conductivity layer. Simulations on synthetic single hillslopes and on a two‐hillslope open‐book catchment are presented, and the results are compared against a benchmark three‐dimensional Richards equation model. The impact of hydraulic conductivity, hillslope plan geometry (uniform, convergent, divergent), and hillslope inclination (0.2%, 5%, and 30%) under drainage and recharge conditions are examined. On the single hillslopes, good matches for heads, hydrographs, and exchange fluxes are generally obtained, with the most significant differences in outflows and heads observed for the 30% slope and for hillslopes with convergent geometry. On the open‐book catchment, cumulative outflows are overestimated by 1–4%. Heads in the confined and unconfined aquifers are adequately reproduced throughout the catchment, whereas exchange fluxes are found to be very sensitive to the hillslope drainable porosity. The new model is highly efficient computationally compared to the benchmark model. The coupled hsB/AE model represents an alternative to commonly used groundwater flow representations in hydrological models, of particular appeal when surface–subsurface exchanges, local aquifer–regional aquifer interactions, and low flows play a key role in a watershed's dynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnostic evaluation of multiple hypotheses of hydrological behaviour in a limits‐of‐acceptability framework for 24 UK catchments

Testing competing conceptual model hypotheses in hydrology is complicated by uncertainties from a wide range of sources, which result in multiple simulations that explain catchment behaviour. In this study, the limits of acceptability uncertainty analysis approach used to discriminate between 78 competing hypotheses in the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors for 24 catchments in the UK. During model evaluation, we test the model's ability to represent observed catchment dynamics and processes by defining key hydrologic signatures and time step‐based metrics from the observed discharge time series. We explicitly account for uncertainty in the evaluation data by constructing uncertainty bounds from errors in the stage‐discharge rating curve relationship. Our study revealed large differences in model performance both between catchments and depending on the type of diagnostic used to constrain the simulations. Model performance varied with catchment characteristics and was best in wet catchments with a simple rainfall‐runoff relationship. The analysis showed that the value of different diagnostics in constraining catchment response and discriminating between competing conceptual hypotheses varies according to catchment characteristics. The information content held within water balance signatures was found to better capture catchment dynamics in chalk catchments, where catchment behaviour is predominantly controlled by seasonal and annual changes in rainfall, whereas the information content in the flow‐duration curve and time‐step performance metrics was able to better capture the dynamics of rainfall‐driven catchments. We also investigate the effect of model structure on model performance and demonstrate its (in)significance in reproducing catchment dynamics for different catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lumped hysteretic model for subsurface stormflow developed using downward approach

The terms ‘downward’ and ‘upward’ (synonymous with ‘top‐down’ and ‘bottom‐up’ respectively) are sometimes used when describing methods for developing hydrological models. A downward approach is used here to develop a lumped catchment‐scale model for subsurface stormflow at the 0·94 km² Slapton Wood catchment. During the development, as few assumptions as possible are made about the behaviour of subsurface stormflow at the catchment scale, and no assumptions are made about its behaviour at smaller scales. (In an upward approach, in contrast, the modelling would be based on assumptions about, and data for, the behaviour at smaller scales, such as the hillslope, plot, and point scales.) The model has a single store with a relatively simple relationship between discharge and storage, based on equations describing hysteretic patterns seen in a graph of discharge against storage. Double‐peaked hydrographs have been observed at the catchment outlet. Rainfall on the channel and infiltration‐excess and saturation‐excess runoff give a rapid response, and shallow subsurface stormflow gives a delayed response. Hydrographs are successfully simulated for the large delayed responses observed in 1971–1980 and 1989–1991, then a lumped model for the rapid response is coupled to the lumped hysteretic model and some double‐peaked hydrographs simulated. A physical interpretation is developed for the lumped hysteretic model, making use of information on patterns of perched saturation observed in 1982 on a hillslope at the Slapton Wood catchment. Downward and upward approaches are complementary, and the most robust way to develop and improve lumped catchment models is to iterate between downward and upward steps. Possible next steps are described. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.