天津冬季重霾污染过程及气象和边界层特征分析

京津冀大气灰霾污染严重,天津市作为其核心组成之一其污染形势亦严峻。选取2013年2月20~28日天津重霾污染时段7站PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)和气态污染物数据,结合北京污染数据、地面气象要素、能见度、边界层温湿和风廓线、后向轨迹,深入分析重霾污染过程特征及气象和边界层成因。结果显示,研究时段天津PM2.5、SO2、NO2、CO和O3浓度均值为150、87、56、2.4和22μg m-3,气态污染物各站差异显著,但仅有SO2全面超过国家空气质量一级标准(50μg m-3),而PM2.5具有区域同步变化特征,且严重超标,是一级标准(35μg m-3)的2~8倍,最高小时均值高达364μg m-3;高浓度PM2.5是导致低能见度的主因,能见度小于10 km对应PM2.5阈值为50μg m-3。弱风和高湿度导致局地排放累积,PM2.5始增,在高湿度条件下,持续偏南风促使其稳步增加,配合弱北风和弱东风PM2.5震荡上扬,污染高值阶段,南北气流短时迅速切换,区域污染传输叠加污染的循环累积,PM2.5浓度峰值达到最高;除因边界层强东风导致的平流逆温外,高浓度PM2.5与平流逆温密切相关;高污染时段高湿主要集中在500 m以下,且随高度递减幅度较大;位于200~600 m的低空急流一定程度抑制污染上升,尤其持续强东风使PM2.5浓度稳步降低到二级水平,污染迅速有效清除最终依赖整层的强西北风。北京、环绕天津的河北中部和西南部地区对天津重污染有显著贡献。     

2007和2008年夏季北京奥运馆大气PM10与PM2.5质量浓度变化特征

为了监测北京奥运主场馆附近大气颗粒物的污染状况以及评估奥运污染源减排措施对北京大气颗粒物质量浓度变化的影响,利用颗粒物在线监测仪器TEOM于2007年和2008年夏季,在奥运主场馆附近的中国科学院遥感应用研究所办公楼楼顶对大气颗粒物PM10和PM2.5进行了连续同步观测。结果表明,2007年夏季监测点附近大气PM10与PM2.5质量浓度的平均值分别为153.9和71.2μg.m-3,而2008年夏季PM10与PM2.5质量浓度的平均值分别为85.2和52.8μg.m-3。与奥运前一年同时段相比,奥运时段大气PM10和PM2.5的质量浓度分别下降44.5%和25.1%。对比分析奥运前后的2次典型污染过程发现,空气相对湿度的增加和偏南气流输送的共同影响易造成大气颗粒物的累积增长,而降雨的湿清除作用和偏北气流则会使大气颗粒物浓度迅速降低。在相近的气象条件下,奥运前后的污染过程中,大气细粒子的日均增长速率分别为25.1和13.9μg.m-3.d-1,而大气粗粒子的日均增长速率分别为20.8和2.2μg.m-3.d-1,奥运时段污染累积过程中大气粗、细粒子的增长速率分别显著低于和略低于奥运前同时段污染过程中颗粒物的增长速率。污染源减排措施的实施是奥运期间大气颗粒物质量浓度降低的主要原因,从控制效果来看,奥运期间实施的污染源减排措施对大气粗粒子的控制效果明显好于大气细粒子。     

曹妃甸工业区空气污染来源及其对周边地区污染贡献的数值模拟研究

为了深入研究曹妃甸工业区的建立和大型工业企业的迁入对京津冀地区空气质量的影响,利用嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统NAQPMS(Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System)研究该工业区和周边地区在2016年秋、冬季空气质量状况,并对PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)来源与区域输送进行分析。结果表明:模式能很好地再现气象要素和污染物浓度分布特征;曹妃甸地区本地排放在1月和10月的月均贡献分别为17.8%和25.8%。当空气质量为优良时,曹妃甸地区PM2.5主要受短距离周边传输影响,唐山和天津贡献率之和达23%～53%;当空气出现轻度及以上污染时,曹妃甸地区PM2.5浓度主要受到长距离输送的影响,河北中南部和山东地区贡献之和达40%～50%。曹妃甸工业园区排放对周边地区PM2.5浓度贡献相对较小,对唐山和天津地区贡献为3%～7%,对京津冀地区其他城市PM2.5浓度贡献可忽略不计。空气质量转差时,曹妃甸、北京和天津地区PM2.5中一次排放占比相较于空气质量优良时明显下降,二次生成的无机盐类和二次有机气溶胶贡献率增加;曹妃甸地区10月二次生成硫酸盐贡献率较1月明显增加,月均贡献率为22%。因此,在致力于削减京津冀地区PM2.5一次排放的同时,对SO2、NOx等进行控制,能有效改善该地区空气质量。     

2002年北京风沙季节颗粒物测值分析

为了了解风沙季节的颗粒物浓度特征,特别是在风沙天气来临前后颗粒物浓度的变化,2002年春季分别在北京的延庆和观象台进行了连续的颗粒物观测,并对观测资料进行了较为详细的统计分析。结果表明:在风沙季节,沙尘天气出现前后的颗粒物浓度变化幅度非常显著,对环境质量的影响明显增大;TSP与PM10,PM10与PM2.5的相关性非常显著,线性关系好。沙尘天气对不同粒径颗粒物浓度贡献的增加在33%~86%之间。     

秸秆焚烧对区域城市空气质量影响的模拟分析

利用融合火点排放源、人为源和生物源的WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry)模式,模拟2015年9月30日08:00(北京时间)起的72 h发生在淮河流域的一次农作物秸秆大面积露天焚烧过程,研究了农作物秸秆焚烧释放的气态污染物和颗粒物对区域城市空气质量的影响。通过有无火点两组试验分析了此次秸秆焚烧对流域内河南、山东、江苏和安徽四省83座城市CO、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)、PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)和O3浓度的定量影响,结果表明:(1)融合NCAR-FINN(Fire Inventory from NCAR)火点排放资料的WRF-Chem模式较好地再现了此次秸秆焚烧及火点烟羽扩散过程。同时结合EDGAR-HTAP(Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution)人为源和MEGAN(Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)生物源的WRF-FIRE(考虑火点排放试验)对流域内城市大气污染物的模拟效果较为理想,尤其对秸秆焚烧释放的污染物CO、PM10和PM2.5和产生的二次污染物O3浓度的模拟。(2)秸秆焚烧所释放的污染物造成流域内城市一次污染物CO、PM10和PM2.5浓度的增加,火点中心和下风向城市增幅最为明显,最大小时浓度增幅达到3倍标准差。气态污染物CO和相比PM10粒径更小的PM2.5可随风扩散至更远的地区,对城市浓度影响更大。(3)此外,秸秆焚烧也使得火点中心城市和下风向城市二次污染物O3浓度增加,但小时浓度增幅极值区分布在火点下风向烟羽末端太阳光照充足的地区,最大小时浓度增幅接近3倍标准差。秸秆焚烧对区域城市空气质量的影响存在明显的空间分布差异且对城市各大气污染成分的影响也不相同。     

不同人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响:以浙江省为例

应用大气化学模式WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecast-Chemistry),分别选用亚洲排放源清单INTEX-B(Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B)、REASv2.1(Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2.1)以及全球排放源清单HTAP_v2(Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version 2),对浙江省2013年12月进行模拟,分别记为IN、RE和HT试验,研究人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响。结果表明,3组试验合理的反映出PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)和NO_2近地面浓度的时空分布特征,相关系数为0.5~0.8,85%以上的模拟值落在观测值的0.5~2倍范围内,但对SO_2近地面浓度模拟较差。IN、RE、HT试验对PM2.5和PM10的模拟偏差均成递减趋势,约为30%、16%和6%,HT试验的模拟值更加接近观测。INTEX-B清单中PM2.5的一次排放与二次气溶胶前提物SO_2均高于REAS与HTAP清单,因此会导致更多的硫酸盐生成,从而进一步增加PM2.5浓度。HTAP_v2清单中较低的NH3排放会抑制硝酸盐的生成,从而有助于降低PM2.5浓度。3个清单的基准年与模拟年的差异对SO_2浓度模拟的准确性影响更大,INTEX-B清单中SO_2排放量明显高于REASv2.1与HTAP_v2清单,尤其在浙北和沿海工业发达地区,导致IN试验模拟的SO_2在这些地区存在明显高估。3组试验模拟的NO_2浓度偏差最小且更为接近(-8%~4%),主要原因是3个清单在浙江省的NOx排放十分一致。从3组试验结果之间的差异程度来看,浙江省范围内PM2.5、PM10、SO_2和NO_2逐日浓度模拟值之间的平均差异程度分别约为14%、15%、51%和16%,最大差异程度分别为69%、78%、137%和132%。月均浓度与逐日浓度的平均差异程度基本一致,但最大差异程度明显更低。总体来看3组试验模拟的PM2.5、PM10与NO_2的差异程度明显低于SO_2。     

基于观测、模拟和同化数据的PM2.5污染回顾分析

基于观测数据空间插值、数值模拟以及最优插值同化方法构建了京津冀地区PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)空间插值数据、模拟数据和同化数据,并首次比较分析了三种数据在PM2.5污染回顾分析上的应用潜力和优缺点。针对2014年2月19~28日京津冀地区PM2.5污染过程的分析发现:(1)观测空间插值数据难以完整表征PM2.5污染的时空演变特征,在没有观测覆盖区域误差较大,容易出现虚假的高低值中心;(2)模拟数据具有较高时空分辨率,对PM2.5污染时空演变特征描述更加细致,但在这次污染过程中仍存在较大不确定性,其均方根误差大于100μg/m3;(3)同化数据不仅能对PM2.5空间分布特征进行细致描述,其数据精度在独立验证站点也显著高于模拟数据,其均方根误差比模拟数据低约50%,与站点观测数据的相关系数也比模拟数据高0.2以上。基于PM2.5同化数据,对这次京津冀PM2.5污染过程的时空演变特征进行了详细回顾分析,发现这次污染过程存在自京津冀南部PM2.5污染累积并向北输送发展的生成特点,消亡过程为风向转换下自北向南清除,造成京津冀南部城市先污染后清除,北部城市后污染先清除,并且有慢累积、快清除的特征。从发展演变过程中污染所占空间面积来看,25日PM2.5污染范围最大,覆盖模式第三区域60.5%面积。     

基于数值模拟和统计拟合分析华北冬季一次大范围重污染过程的形成机理

基于WRF/Chem（Weather Research Forecasting/Chemistry）模式对2015年11月25日至12月2日我国北方一次大范围PM2.5（空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5 μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物）重污染过程进行了模拟。与观测资料对比表明,模式能够较好地模拟出PM2.5浓度及气象因素的变化趋势,结果适用于此次污染事件的机理分析。动力、热力条件及化学转化等因素对此次强污染事件形成的机理分析表明,动力因子主要通过表面风和垂直风切变的减弱对此次污染事件造成影响,边界层逆温等热力因子促进了大气稳定性的增强,不利于污染物扩散。依据PM2.5组成成分变化分析可知,硝酸盐、硫酸盐和有机碳在此次事件中含量增加,说明机动车汽车尾气和燃煤排放所致的二次气溶胶生成对PM2.5污染加剧起重要贡献。多元线性回归分析和多因子相对贡献率量化解析结果表明,热力因子在此次污染过程中起主要作用,方差贡献率为52%,动力因子次之,方差贡献率为34%,而化学转化方差贡献率约为14%,说明气象条件,尤其是热力条件是引起此次污染事件的主要原因。     

奥运会开幕前后北京PM10输送通量变化及情景分析

利用嵌套网格空气质量预报系统(NAQPMS)的模拟结果,对奥运会开幕前后京津冀地区(2008年7月20日～8月24日)PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm颗粒物)输送特征进行计算与分析。结果表明,气象条件的改变使得在南、东南和东三个方向输入北京地区的PM10通量在数值与分布上发生了较大幅度改变。开幕式前PM10主要自南部边界输送入北京,占输入总通量的55.8%,东南边界次之,占29.4%;奥运期间,二者贡献分别变为38.1%和47%,且入京总通量小时均值由50t下降为40.2t。垂直方向上,开幕式前输送能力最大的区间位于边界层中下部,奥运期间(8月8日～24日)边界层内输送的垂直分布较为平均。另外,结合2006年同期气象场及排放清单,通过替换的方法对奥运会期间的空气质量状况进行了情景模拟,结果表明:气象场的变化在PM10区域输送中起着决定性的作用,但在空气质量的改善方面,污染源减排的效果更为明显。     

春末中国西北沙漠地区沙尘气溶胶物理特性的飞机观测

将APS-3310型激光空气动力学气溶胶粒子谱仪安装在飞机上,于1999年春末对中国西北沙漠地区上空气溶胶进行探测。结果表明:沙漠地区上空沙尘气溶胶粒子数浓度一般为1~10个.cm-3,平均直径为1.6~4.6μm,最大直径为13.0~28.0μm;TSP质量浓度为0.01~0.08mg.m-3,PM2.5和PM10分别占TSP的3.6%~13.8%和50.3%~88.1%。高空沙尘气溶胶数浓度与下垫面状况密切相关,沙漠地表上空的粒子数浓度高于植被覆盖较好的地区;当在沙漠地区上空飞行轨迹为上升、平飞、下降时,沙尘气溶胶粒子谱呈现出由单峰偏态、双峰、正态到单峰偏态等形式的演变。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.