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1.
The predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from pre-season circulation indices is explored from observations during
1939–91. The predictand is the all-India average of June–September precipitation NIR, and the precursors examined are the
latitude position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E in April (L), the pressure tendency April minus January at Darwin (DPT),
March-April-May temperature at six stations in west central India (T6), the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the northeastern
Arabian Sea in May (ASM), SST anomaly in the Arabian Sea in January (ANJ), northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in January–February
(NHT), and Eurasian snow cover in January (SNOW). Monsoon rainfall tends to be enhanced with a more northerly ridge position,
small Darwin pressure tendency, warmer pre-season conditions, and reduced winter snow cover. However, relationships have varied
considerably over the past half-century, with the strongest associations during 1950–80, and a drastic weakening in the 1980s.
Four prediction models were constructed based on stepwise multiple regression, using as predictors combinations of L, DPT,
T6, ASM, and NHT, with 1939–68 as “dependent” dataset, or training period, and 1969–91 as “independent” dataset or verification
period. For the 1969–80 portion of the verification period calculated and observed NIR values agreed closely, with the models
explaining 74–79% of the variance. By contrast, after 1980 predictions deteriorated drastically, with the explained variance
for the 1969–89 time span dropping to 25–31%. The monsoon rainfall of 1990 and 1991 turned out to be again highly predictable
from models based on stepwise multiple regression and linear discriminant analysis and using as input L + DPT or L + DPT +
NHT, and with this encouragement an experimental real-time forecast was issued of the 1992 monsoon rainfall.
These results underline the need for investigations into decadal-scale changes in the general circulation setting and raise
concern for the continued success of seasonal forecasting. 相似文献
2.
Nityanand Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(1):1-36
Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation
in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm
isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area
(monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered
as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics
of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported.
To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area
and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global
surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere,
April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant
correlation.
A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested
in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges
whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura
(Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724.
Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding
year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May
as independent parameters. 相似文献
3.
Homogeneous Indian Monsoon rainfall: Variability and prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is known to have considerable spatial variability, which imposes some limitations on the
all-India mean widely used at present. To prepare a spatially coherent monsoon rainfall series for the largest possible area,
fourteen subdivisions covering the northwestern and central parts of India (about 55% of the total area of the country), having
similar rainfall characteristics and associations with regional/global circulation parameters are merged and their area-weighted
means computed, to form monthly and seasonal Homogeneous Indian Monsoon (HIM) rainfall series for the period 1871–1990. This
paper includes a listing of monthly and seasonal rainfall of HIM region. HIM rainfall series has been statistically analysed
to understand its characteristics, variability and teleconnections for long-range prediction.
HIM rainfall series isfound to be homogeneous, Gaussian distributed and free from persistence. The mean (R) rainfall is 757
mm (87% of annual) and standard deviation (S) 119 mm, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 16%. There were 21 dry (K, -<R S) and 19 wet (R
i R + S) years during 1871–1990. There were clusters of frequent negative departures during 1899–1920 and 1965–1987 and positive
departures during 1942–1961. The recent three decades show very high rainfall variability with 10 dry and 6 wet years. The
decadal averages were alternatively positive and negative for three consecutive decades, viz., 1871–1900 (positive); 1901–1930
(negative); 1931–1960 (positive) and 1961–1990 (negative) respectively. Significant QBO and autocorrelation at 14th lag have
been found in HIM rainfall series.
To delineate the changes in the climatic regime of the Indian summer monsoon, sliding correlation coefficients (CCs) between
HIM rainfall series and (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) Darwin msl pressure and (iii) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature
over the period 1871–1990 have been examined. The 31-year sliding CCs showed the systematic turning points of positive and
negative CCs around the years, 1900 and 1940. In the light of other corroborative evidences, these turning points seem to
delineate ‘meridional’ monsoon regime during 1871–1900 and 1940–1990 and ‘zonal’ monsoon regime during 1901–1940. The monsoon
signal is particularly dominant in many regional and global circulation parameters, during 1951–1990.
Using the teleconnections ofHIM series with 12 regional/global circulation parameters during the recent 36-year period 1951–86 regression models have been
developed for long-range prediction. In the regression equations 3 to 4 parameters were entered, explaining upto 80% of the
variance, depending upon the data period. The parameters that prominently enter the multiple regression equations are (i)
Bombay msl pressure, (ii) April 500 mb Ridge at 75°E, (iii) NH temperature, (iv) Nouvelle minus Agalega msl pressure and (v)
South American msl pressure. Eleven circulation parameters for the period 1951–80 were subjected to Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) and the PC’s were used in the regression model to estimate HIM rainfall. The multiple regression with three PCs explain
72% of variance in HIM rainfall. 相似文献
4.
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state on the eastern coast of India, is more significantly related than Indian
summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to the cyclonic disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal. Orissa experiences floods and
droughts very often due to variation in the characteristics of these disturbances. Hence, an attempt was made to find out
the inter-annual variability in the rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances
affecting Orissa during monsoon season (June–September). For this purpose, different statistical characteristics, such as
mean, coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities in the rainfall and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic
disturbances affecting Orissa, were analysed from 100 years (1901–2000) of data. The basic objective of the study was to find
out the contribution of inter-annual variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances to the inter-annual variability
of monsoon rainfall over Orissa.
The relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa shows
temporal variation. The correlation between them has significantly decreased since the 1950s. The variation in their relationship
is mainly due to the variation in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. The variability of both rainfall
and total cyclonic disturbances has been above normal since the 1960s, leading to more floods and droughts over Orissa during
recent years. The inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting
Orissa during monsoon season show a quasi-biennial oscillation period of 2–2.8 years. There is least impact of El Nino southern
oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual variability of both the seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of monsoon depressions/total
cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. 相似文献
5.
The time evolution of atmospheric parameters on intraseasonal time scale in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied during
the summer monsoon seasons of 1998–2003 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) data. This is done
using the spectral and wavelet analysis. Analysis shows that over EAS, total precipitable water vapour (TWV) and sea surface
wind speed (SWS) have a periodicity of 8–15 days, 15–30 days and 30–60 days during the monsoon season. Significant power is
seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer monsoon. Analysis indicates that the timings
of the intensification of 8–15, 15–30, and 30–60 days oscillations have a profound effect on the evolution of the daily rainfall
over west coast of India. The positive and negative phases of these oscillations are directly related to the active and dry
spells of rainfall along the west coast of India. The spectral analysis shows interannual variation of TWV and SWS. Heavy
rainfall events generally occur over the west coast of India when positive phases of both 30–60 days and 15–30 days modes
of TWV and SWS are simultaneously present. 相似文献
6.
B. Parthasarathy 《Journal of Earth System Science》1984,93(4):371-385
Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306
stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical
tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence.
The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions
respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest
231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is
observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic
correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis
show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series. 相似文献
7.
Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to low pressure systems 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS) developing over the Bay of Bengal
and moving along the monsoon trough. A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between
LPS over different regions and rain-fall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September). For this purpose,
rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during
different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999) are analysed. The principal objective
of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa.
The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during
July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over
the period of 1980-1999. The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by
about 5%) during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa. Most parts of Orissa,
especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone) and western side of the
Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their
subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa. The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall
with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay. While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern
Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay, Jharkhand and Bangladesh, that over the eastern
side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa. There
are significant decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during June and
decreasing trends in rainy days over some parts of north interior Orissa and central part of coastal Orissa during July over
the period of 1980-1999 相似文献
8.
In this paper, the simultaneous effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) on monsoon rainfall
over different homogeneous regions/subdivisions of India is studied. The simultaneous effect of both NAO and SO on Indian
summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is more important than their individual impact because both the oscillations exist simultaneously
throughout the year. To represent the simultaneous impact of NAO and SO, an index called effective strength index (ESI) has
been defined on the basis of monthly NAO and SO indices. The variation in the tendency of ESI from January through April has
been analyzed and reveals that when this tendency is decreasing, then the ESI value throughout the monsoon season (June–September)
of the year remains negative andvice versa. This study further suggests that during the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show above-normal
rainfall andvice versa. The correlation analysis indicates that the ESI-tendency is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship
with rainfall over 14 subdivisions of India. Area wise, about 50% of the total area of India shows statistically significant
association. Moreover, the ESI-tendency shows a significant relationship with rainfall over north west India, west central
India, central north east India, peninsular India and India as a whole. Thus, ESI-tendency can be used as a precursor for
the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a smaller spatial scale. 相似文献
9.
Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very
heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features
of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing
20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find
out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa.
Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa
in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy
rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low
pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough
extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with
less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It
occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay
followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts
of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS
to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant
trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the
monsoon months and the season as a whole. 相似文献
10.
Analysis of fifty four (1951–2004) years of daily energetics of zonal waves derived from NCEP/NCAR wind (u and υ) data and daily rainfall received over the Indian landmass (real time data) during southwest monsoon season (1 June–30 September)
indicate that energetics (momentum transport and kinetic energy) of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves (waves 1 and 2) of
low latitudes hold a key to intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rainfall over India.
Correlation coefficient between climatology of daily (122 days) energetics of ultra-long waves and climatology of daily rainfall
over Indian landmass is 0.9. The relation is not only significant but also has a predictive potential. The normalised plot
of both the series clearly indicates that the response period of rainfall to the energetics is of 5–10 days during the onset
phase and 4–7 days during the withdrawal phase of monsoon over India. During the established phase of monsoon, both the series
move hand-in-hand. Normalised plot of energetics of ultra-long waves and rainfall for individual year do not show marked deviation
with respect to climatology. These results are first of its kind and are useful for the short range forecast of rainfall over
India. 相似文献
11.
Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received 77% of its long period
average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon
season rainfall year during the period 1901–2009. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to study the characteristic
features of summer monsoon rainfall of 2009 over the country and to investigate some of the possible causes behind the anomalous
behaviour of the monsoon. 相似文献
12.
On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The relative impacts of the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events on Indian summer (June–September) monsoon rainfall at
sub-regional scales have been examined in this study. GISST datasets from 1958 to 1998, along with Willmott and Matsuura gridded
rainfall data, all India summer monsoon rainfall data, and homogeneous and sub-regional Indian rainfall datasets were used.
The spatial distribution of partial correlations between the IOD and summer rainfall over India indicates a significant impact
on rainfall along the monsoon trough regions, parts of the southwest coastal regions of India, and also over Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and Iran. ENSO events have a wider impact, although opposite in nature over the monsoon trough region to that of IOD events.
The ENSO (IOD) index is negatively (positively) correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student
t-test) with summer monsoon rainfall over seven (four) of the eight homogeneous rainfall zones of India. During summer, ENSO
events also cause drought over northern Sri Lanka, whereas the IOD events cause surplus rainfall in its south. On monthly
scales, the ENSO and IOD events have significant impacts on many parts of India. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-related
correlations is greater than those related to the IOD. The monthly-stratified IOD variability during each of the months from
July to September has a significant impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability over different parts of India, confirming
that strong IOD events indeed affect the Indian summer monsoon.
相似文献
Karumuri AshokEmail: |
13.
S. R. Kalsi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2000,109(2):211-220
BOBMEX-Pilot was organised from 23rd October–11th November, 1998 when the seasonal trough had already shifted to south Bay
of Bengal. The activity during this period was marked by the development of a monsoon depression from 26th–29th October that
weakened over the sea; onset of northeast monsoon along the east coast of India on 29th October; a low pressure area that
formed on 2nd November over southwest Bay off Sri Lanka — southTamilnadu coast; and another cyclonic circulation that formed
towards the end of the BOBMEX-Pilot period. This paper describes the development of these synoptic systems through synoptic
charts and satellite data. 相似文献
14.
Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January
to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between
the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal
belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a
good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly
a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year
is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian
Ocean during March. 相似文献
15.
Utilizing data for the long period 1871–1990, variation in the relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and tendencies of the global factors. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the sea surface temperature (SST) over eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean has been explored. The periods for which relationships exist have been identified. Tendencies from
the season SON (Sept-Oct-Nov) to season DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) and from DJF to MAM (Mar-Apr-May) before the Indian summer monsoon
are indicated respectively by SOIT-2/SSTT-2 and SOIT-l/SSTT-1, current tendency from JJA (June-July-Aug) to SON, by SOIT0/SSTT0,
tendencies from SON to DJF and DJF to MAM following monsoon, by SOIT1/SSTT1 and SOIT2/SSTT2 respectively.
It is observed that while the relationships of IMR with SSTT-1, SSTT0 and SSTT2 exist almost throughout the whole period,
that with SOIT-1 exists for 1942–1990, with SOIT0 for 1871–1921 and 1957–1990 and with SOIT2, for 1871–1921 only. The relationships
that exist with SOIT-1, SOIT2, SSTT-1, SSTT2 and with SSTT0 (for period 1931–1990) are found to be very good and those that
exist with SOIT0 for periods 1871–1921 and 1957–90 and for SSTT0 for the period 1871–1930 are good. It is thus seen that the
relationships of SOIT-1, SOIT0 and SOIT2 with IMR do not correspond well with those of SSTT-1, SSTT0 and SSTT2 with IMR respectively,
even though SOI and SST are closely related to each other for all the seasons. SOIT-1 and SSTT-1 can continue to be used as
predictors for IMRDuring the whole period, IMR is found to play a passive, i.e. of being influenced or anticipated by SSTT-1
as well as an active role, i.e. of influencing or anticipating SSTT2. This implies a complex and perhaps non-linear interaction
between IMR and SST tendency from DJF to MAM. Possibly, this is a part of the larger interaction between Asian monsoon rainfall
and the tropical Pacific. A possible physical mechanism for the interaction is indicated. 相似文献
16.
G. Nageswara Rao 《Journal of Earth System Science》1999,108(4):327-332
Rainfall variability over a river basin has greater impact on the water resource in that basin. With this in view, the variability
of the monsoon rainfall over the Godavari river basin has been studied on different time scales. As expected, the monsoon
rainfall in Godavari basin is more variable (17%) than the all-India monsoon rainfall (11%) during the period of study (1951–90).
Similarly, inter-annual variability of the monsoon rainfall on smaller time scales is found to be still higher and increases
while going on from seasonal to daily scales. An interesting observation is that the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon
rainfall has a significant negative relationship (CC= −0.53) with the total seasonal rainfall in the basin. 相似文献
17.
Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
U. C. Mohanty R. Bhatla P. V. S. Raju O. P. Madan A. Sarkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2002,111(3):365-378
In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields
and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30‡E-120‡E, 30‡S30‡N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon
season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for
42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for
Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon
years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level.
Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the
pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2 m) in the
month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea
that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2 m) in the
month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region
is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed
over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows
positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea.
There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent
heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive
anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered as an advance indicator of the
possible behavior of the subsequent monsoon season. The distribution of net heat flux is predominantly negative over eastern
Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Anomaly between the two extreme monsoon years in post 1980 (i.e., 1988 and 1987)
shows that shortwave flux, latent heat flux and net heat flux indicate reversal in sign, particularly in south Indian Ocean.
Variations of the heat budget components over four smaller sectors of Indian seas, namely Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and west
Indian Ocean and east Indian Ocean show that a small sector of Arabian Sea is most dominant during May and other sectors showing
reversal in sign of latent heat flux during monsoon season. 相似文献
18.
Y. A. Moustafa J. Pätzold Y. Loya G. Wefer 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2000,88(4):742-751
We present a study based on X-ray chronologies and the stable isotopic composition of fossil Porites spp. corals from the northern Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) covering the mid-Holocene period from 5750 to 4450 14C years BP (before present). The stable oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions of five specimens reveal regular annual periodicities.
Compared with modern Porites spp. from the same environment, the average seasonal δ
18O amplitude of the fossil corals is higher (by ca. 0.35–0.60‰), whereas annual growth rates are lower (by ca. 3.5 to 2 mm/year).
This suggests stronger seasonality of sea surface temperatures and increased variability of the oxygen isotopic composition
of the sea water due to changes in the precipitation and evaporation regime during the mid-Holocene. Most likely, summer monsoon
rains reached the northern end of the Red Sea at that time. Average annual coral growth rates are diminished probably due
to an increased input and resuspension of terrestrial debris to the shallow marine environment during more humid conditions.
Our results corroborate published reports of paleodata and model simulations suggesting a northward migration of the African
monsoon giving rise to increased seasonalities during the mid-Holocene over northeastern Africa and Arabia.
Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 13 September 1999 相似文献
19.
D. R. Pattanaik 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(3):635-646
Between 1941 and 2002 there has been a decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon disturbances (MDs) during the summer monsoon
season (June–September). This downwards trend is significant at the 99.9% level for the main monsoon phase (July–August) and
the withdrawal phase (September); however, it is not significant during the onset phase (June). The variability in rainfall
over the homogeneous regions of India on the sub-seasonal scale also shows a significant decreasing trend with respect to
the amount of rainfall over Northwest India (NWI) and Central India (CEI) during all three phases of the monsoon. Meteorological
observations reveal that there has been an eastward shift of the rainfall belt with time over the Indian region on the seasonal
scale and that this shift is more prominent during the withdrawal phase. This decreasing trend in MDs together with its restricted
westerly movement seem to be directly related to the decreasing trend in rainfall over CEI during both the main monsoon and
withdrawal phases and over NWI during the withdrawal phase. The low-level circulation anomalies observed during two periods
(period-I: 1951–1976; period-ii: 1977–2002) are in accordance with the changes in rainfall distribution, with comparatively
more (less) rainfall falling over NWI, CEI and Southern Peninsular India (SPI) during period-I (period-ii), and are accompanied
by a stronger (weaker) monsoon circulation embedded with an anomalous cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over CEI during
the main monsoon and withdrawal phases. During the onset phase, completely opposite circulation anomalies are observed during
both periods, and these are associated with more (less) rainfall over NWI, CEI and SPI during period-ii (period-I). 相似文献
20.
Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis
of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined
as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical
area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at
least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of
the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall. 相似文献