地方气候、小气候与应用气候

P339.92007042885影响阿克苏河年径流量变化的前期大气环流指数因子研究=The elements of the prophase atmospheric indexes whichin-fluence the annual runoff in the Aksu River/毛炜峄,王铁…∥冰川冻土.—2007,29(2).—242~249图4表4参30(洪明)BiP468.5,P463.32007042886     

地方气候、小气候与应用气候

S792.112006010041毛乌素沙地杨树年轮结构对气候因子的响应=Response oftree-ring structure of poplar to cli mate factors in the Mu UsDesert/黄荣凤,古川郁夫…∥北京林业大学学报.—2005,27(3).—24~29图3表2参16(姚则安)BeP463.222006010042中国东北森林气象因子与NDVI     

塔克拉玛干沙漠沙尘演变及气候因素分析

Based on the sand dust storms data and climatic data in 12 meteorological stations around sand dust storm originating areas of the Taklimakan Desert, we analyzed the trends of the number of dust storm days from 1960 to 2005 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation, wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s. The results show that the frequency of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region decreased with the elapse of time. Except Ruoqiang and Minfeng, in the other 10 meteorological stations, the frequency of dust storm events reduces, and in 4 meteorological stations of Kuqa, Korla, Kalpin and Hotan, the frequency of dust storm events distinctly decreases. The temperature has an increasing trend, while the average wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed ≥ 5 m/s have decreasing trends. The correlation analysis between the number of days of dust storms and climatic parameters demonstrates that wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s have strong positive correlation with the number of days of dust storms, with the correlations coefficients being 0.743 and 0.720 （p〈0.01）, respectively, which indicates that strong wind is the direct factor resulting in sand dust storms. Whereas precipitation has significant negative correlation with the number of days of dust storms （p〈0.01）, and the prior annual precipitation has also negative correlation, which indicates that the prior precipitation restrains the occurrence of sand dust storms, but this restraining action is weaker than the same year＇s precipitation. Temperature has negative correlation with the number of dust storm days, with a correlations coefficient of -0.433 （p〈0.01）, which means that temperature change also has impacts on the occurrence of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region.     

地方气候、小气候与应用气候

P467 2007021016长江源沱沱河区45a来的气候变化特征=Climate change in Tuotuohe area at the headwaters of Yangtze River/张国胜,时兴合…//冰川冻土．—2006,28(5)．—678～685利用1959-2003年长江源区沱沱河气象站气温、降水、积雪等地面观测资料,对年代际的气候变化特征及其影响进行了分析．结果表明:该区域45a来夏季增温比较明显．     

中国热带第四纪动物群与气候波动

About 70 examples of Quaternary fauna in China‘s tropics are enumerated in this paper. Of which about 40% of the examples can be found even in cooling stages, showing the smaller amplitude of climatic fluctuation during Quaternary. According to the temporal and spatial distribution of tropical faunas, the following characters of climate variation can be evidenced: two main cycles in Early Pleistocene, three main cycles in Middle Pleistocene, two main cycles in Late Pleistocene and Holocene Megathermal. The drop in temperature during the Latest Glacial Period and Neoglaciation has not endangered the existence of tropical faunas. With influence of cooling fluctuation during historical period, some faunas have removed southwards progressively, but disappearance of these animals in China‘s tropics was mainly the result of artificial factors.     

Lambert冰川流域东西两侧气候环境变化特征

During the 1992-1993 joint Australian-Chinese over-snow traverse of the western Lambert Glacier Basin (LGB), two firn cores were drilled respectively at MGA and LGB16. During the 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 austral summers, two firn cores were drilled respectively at DT001 and DT085 on the eastern LGB. Based on the measurements made during the expeditions, the climatic and environmental features on both sides of the LGB have been studied. Results show that during the past 50 years, the trends of both air temperature and accumulation rate show a slight increase on the east side of the LGB, in contrast to the west side of the LGB. The spatial trends of the accumulation rate measured by accumulation canes at 2 km intervals along the nearly 500 km of the traverse lines on both sides of the LGB are different. Moreover, correlations of δ^18O vs T10 along the two sides of the LGB are also different. In addition, the variations of sea salt ion concentrations show different trends in the past 50 years. All the evidence shows that the Lambert Glacier is a dividing region for the different climatic regimes over the East Antarctic ice sheet, which may be due to different moisture resources resulting from special local circumfluence such as cyclone activities, local terrain influences.     

近50年华北地区极端气候分析

Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northem China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of 8.3% /10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the fiequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of-15%/10a.     

气候变率影响下博茨瓦纳河流流量的时空变化

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0℃ by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose seri-ous challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and com-plex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore ob-servational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in stream-flow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the im-portance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.     

气候变化影响下西藏旅游气候舒适度变化与适应对策（英文）

Climate change is an important factor affecting the sustainable development of tourist destinations. Based on the monthly observation data of the main meteorological stations on the ground in Tibet from 1960 to 2015, this paper constructs a tourism climate index model. This index is used to quantitatively evaluate the tourism climate changes in Tibet, and investigate the impact of climate change on tourism. The results show that from 1960 to 2015, the temperature in Tibet increased by 1.35°C, and the tourism climate index changed significantly, especially in the regions of Changtang, Ngari and Kunlun Mountain. The fluctuation of temperature-humidity index, wind-chill index and index of clothing of these areas was larger than that of other regions. The changes of each index in different months are different, where spring observes larger changes while summer observes smaller changes. The tourism climate index in northwestern Tibet has increased, and the climate comfort period is expanding. In southeastern Tibet, the comfort level has declined and the comfort level in the central part has been slowly increasing. The comfort index in the southeastern part of Tibet has gradually declined, and the comfort index in central Tibet has slowly increased. According to the comprehensive assessment method including temperature and humidity index, wind-chill index, index of clothing and altitude adaptability index, the types of tourism climate index in Tibet can be divided into reduced, low-speed growth, medium-speed growth and rapid growth. Different regions should adopt alternative tourism products, strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction technology applications and green infrastructure construction, and appropriately control the scale of tourism activities so as to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change on tourist destinations.     

近半个世纪来气候变暖背景下黄河流域潜在蒸散量的变化(英文)

According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of "Evaporation paradox" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.     

作物气候风险研究:以河南省棉花为例

1 Introduction In the past 100 years the global temperature rose sharply due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The mean ground temperature rose by 0.5–0.6°C in the 20th century and 0.3–0.4°C in the last 20 years of the c…     

Functionally assessing the sustainability of regional ecosystem services: a case study of Hohhot City

"The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital" by R.Costanza et al.in 1997 is generally regarded as a monument to the research of valuing ecosystem services.However,the classification of ecosystem services,the method of various services summation,and the purpose for static global value had many criticisms.Based on a summary of these criticisms and suggestions,further study direction—on the sustainability of ecosystem services—is presented.The two basis indicators in ecology—productivity and biodiversity,respectively characterize the ability of producing and self-organizing—not only represent the internal function of ecosystem,but also can be proportioned to its external function of supporting and providing for human life.Theoretically,the two indicators combined could physically assess the sustainability of ecosystem services based on the traditional procedure of Costanza's.The case study of Hohhot City in 1995-2005 shows that the new model reflects the changes of ecosystem services at spatial and temporal scale,and the functionally adjusted assessment shows the sustainability of Hohhot City became gradually stronger during the study decade.But due to the enormous value per unit of water ecosystem,the minimal loss of water area leads to the final result being opposite to the processing analysis,which gives a clue to the further experimental testing research.     

新疆气候时空变化特征及其趋势(英文)

Temperature and precipitation time series datasets from 1961 to 2005 at 65 meteorological stations were used to reveal the spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. Annual and seasonal mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, and R/S methods. The results indicate that: (1) both temperature and precipitation increased in the past 45 years, but the increase in temperature is more obvious than that of precipitation; (2) for temperature increase, the higher the latitude and the higher the elevation the faster the increase, though the latitude has greater influence on the increase. Northern Xinjiang shows a faster warming than southern Xinjiang, especially in summer; (3) increase of precipitation occurs mainly in winter in northern Xinjiang and in summer in southern Xinjiang. Ili, which has the most precipitation in Xinjiang, shows a weak increase of precipitation; (4) although both temperature and precipitation increased in general, the increase is different inside Xinjiang; (5) Hurst index (H) analysis indicates that climate change will continue the current trends.     

典型季风海洋型冰川流域水循环过程变化对气候变暖的响应(英文)

Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in China’s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable development.The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle.As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation season has become longer,the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased.The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year.Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt,and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin.The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream region of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation,resulting from the prominent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins.Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes,to reveal the relationships between climate,glaciers,hydrology and water supplies,and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.     

1951–2010年中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化（英文）

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluated the changes in the heat and moisture conditions of crop growth. An average value of ten years was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in the agricultural hydrothermal conditions within a 1 km2 grid. Next, the inter-annual changing trend was simulated by regression analysis of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that the contour lines for temperature and accumulated temperatures(the daily mean temperature ≥0°C) increased significantly in most parts of China, and that the temperature contour lines had all moved northwards over the past 60 years. At the same time, the annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, though more than half of the meteorological stations did not pass the significance test. However, the mean temperatures in the hottest month and the coldest month exhibited a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010. In addition, the 0°C contour line gradually moved from the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Basin to the Yellow River Basin. All these changes would have a significant impact on the distribution of crops and farming systems. Although the mechanisms influencing the interactive temperature and precipitation changes on crops were complex and hard to distinguish, the fact remained that these changes would directly cause corresponding changes in crop characteristics.     

Simulation analysis on characteristics of land surface over western Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during freezing–thawing period

Using the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment—Asian Monsoon—Tibet Plateau Experiment (GAME-Tibet) observational data—from October 2002 through September 2003—of Gaize in the western Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), the land-surface characteristics of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are simulated by the improved land-surface model Common Land Model (CoLM). The results show that CoLM can reproduce the land-surface characteristics of plateau areas well. In the surface-energy balance of the western QXP in the winter half year, the sensible heat (SH) flux constituted the dominant energy, and the latent heat (LH, here and after) flux is very small. Although the LH flux nearly equals zero in freezing season, it cannot be ignored during the period of freezing–thawing in QXP. In the transition season from mid- to late-May, the frequent phase change of soil water that is caused by the freezing–thawing process leads to the increase of LH flux and decrease of the Bowen ratio. The simulation results also indicate that the changes of surface effective heat fluxes (SH and LH flux) are associated with precipitation and the frequent change between freezing and thawing processes in soil surface.     

未来气候情景下中国生态地理区域系统温度带的北移(英文)

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species' ranges,eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems.Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario.Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS.The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones,which are sensitive to climate change.Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period(1961-1990).Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical,Subtropical,Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate,Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced.Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century.North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change,especially in East China.Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate,Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°,5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively.Moreover,northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.     

中国热带珊瑚礁的第四纪气候记录

The coral reef in China’s tropics can be divided into three regions, namely, the South China Sea Islands, Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula as well as Taiwan Island. There are 34 islands of coral reef which are named in the South China Sea Islands …     

2000-2010年黄河上游流域植被年际变化及其对气候要素的响应(英文)

To understand the variations in vegetation and their correlation with climate factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River, China, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) time series data from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the MOD13Q1 product. The coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test were combined to investigate the volatility characteristic and trend characteristic of the vegetation. Climate data sets were then used to analyze the correlation between variations in vegetation and climate change. In terms of the temporal variations, the vegetation in this study area improved slightly from 2000 to 2010, although the volatility characteristic was larger in 2000–2005 than in 2006–2010. In terms of the spatial variation, vegetation which is relatively stable and has a significantly increasing trend accounts for the largest part of the study area. Its spatial distribution is highly correlated with altitude, which ranges from about 2000 to 3000 m in this area. Highly fluctuating vegetation and vegetation which showed a significantly decreasing trend were mostly distributed around the reservoirs and in the reaches of the river with hydropower developments. Vegetation with a relatively stable and significantly decreasing trend and vegetation with a highly fluctuating and significantly increasing trend are widely dispersed. With respect to the response of vegetation to climate change, about 20–30% of the vegetation has a significant correlation with climatic factors and the correlations in most areas are positive: regions with precipitation as the key influencing factor account for more than 10% of the area; regions with temperature as the key influencing factor account for less than 10% of the area; and regions with precipitation and temperature as the key influencing factors together account for about 5% of the total area. More than 70% of the vegetation has an insignificant correlation with climatic factors.