Evaluation of the fishery status for King Soldier Bream Argyrops spinifer in Pakistan using the software CEDA and ASPIC

Catch and effort data were analyzed to estimate the maximum sustainable yield(MSY) of King Soldier Bream, Argyrops spinifer(Forssk?l, 1775, Family: Sparidae), and to evaluate the present status of the fish stocks exploited in Pakistani waters. The catch and effort data for the 25-years period 1985–2009 were analyzed using two computer software packages, CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a surplus production model incorporating covariates). The maximum catch of 3 458 t was observed in 1988 and the minimum catch of 1 324 t in 2005, while the average annual catch of A. spinifer over the 25 years was 2 500 t. The surplus production models of Fox, Schaefer, and Pella Tomlinson under three error assumptions of normal, log-normal and gamma are in the CEDA package and the two surplus models of Fox and logistic are in the ASPIC package. In CEDA, the MSY was estimated by applying the initial proportion(IP) of 0.8, because the starting catch was approximately 80% of the maximum catch. Except for gamma, because gamma showed maximization failures, the estimated results of MSY using CEDA with the Fox surplus production model and two error assumptions, were 1 692.08 t(R 2 =0.572) and 1 694.09 t( R 2 =0.606), respectively, and from the Schaefer and the Pella Tomlinson models with two error assumptions were 2 390.95 t( R 2 =0.563), and 2 380.06 t( R 2 =0.605), respectively. The MSY estimated by the Fox model was conservatively compared to the Schaefer and Pella Tomlinson models. The MSY values from Schaefer and Pella Tomlinson models were the same. The computed values of MSY using the ASPIC computer software program with the two surplus production models of Fox and logistic were 1 498 t(R 2 =0.917), and 2 488 t( R 2 =0.897) respectively. The estimated values of MSY using CEDA were about 1 700–2 400 t and the values from ASPIC were 1 500–2 500 t. The estimates output by the CEDA and the ASPIC packages indicate that the stock is overfished, and needs some effective management to reduce the fishing effort of the species in Pakistani waters.     

Assessing the Fishery Resource Status of China's Coastal Waters Using Surplus Production Models

Surplus production models(SPMs) are among the simplest and most widely used fishery stock assessment models. The catch-effort data analysis(CEDA) and a surplus production model incorporating covariates(ASPIC) are softwares for analyzing fishery catch and fishing effort data using nonequilibrium SPMs. In China Fishery Statistical Yearbook, annual fishery production and fishing effort data of the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea have been published from 1979 till present.Using its catch and fishing effort data from 1980 to 2018, we apply the CEDA and ASPIC to evaluate fishery resources in Chinese coastal waters. The results show that the total maximum sustainable yield(MSY) estimate of the four China seas is 10.05–10.83 million tons, approximately equal to the marine fishery catch(10.44 million tons) reported in 2018. It can be concluded that China's coastal fishery resources are currently fully exploited and must be protected with a precautionary approach. Both softwares produced similar results; however, the CEDA had a much higher R2 value(above 0.9) than ASPIC(about 0.2), indicating that CEDA can better fit the data and therefore is more suitable for analyzing the fishery resources in the coastal waters of China.     

Application of CEDA and ASPIC computer packages to the hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea

Surplus-production models are widely used in fish stock assessment and fisheries management due to their simplicity and lower data demands than age-structured models such as Virtual Population Analysis. The CEDA (catch-effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a surplus-production model incorporating covariates) computer packages are data-fitting or parameter estimation tools that have been developed to analyze catch-and-effort data using non-equilibrium surplus production models. We applied CEDA and ASPIC to the hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea. Both packages produced robust results and yielded similar estimates. In CEDA, the Schaefer surplus production model with log-normal error assumption produced results close to those of ASPIC. CEDA is sensitive to the choice of initial proportion, while ASPIC is not. However, CEDA produced higher R 2 values than ASPIC.     

Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga)

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE) data(1975–2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore(Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises(CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. α is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.     

Performance comparison between logistic and generalized surplus-production models applied to the Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistan

The catch and effort data of Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistani waters were used to investigate the performance of two closely related stock assessment models: logistic and generalized surplus-production models. Compared with the generalized production model, the logistic model produced more reasonable estimates for parameters such as maximum sustainable yield. The Akaike’s Information Criterion values estimated at 4.265 and -51.152 respectively by the logistic and generalized models. Simulation analyses of the S. sihama fishery showed that the estimated and observed abundance indices for the logistic model were closer than those for the generalized production model. Standardized residuals were distributed closer for logistic model, but exhibited a slightly increasing trend for the generalized model. Statistical outliers were seen in 1989 and 1993 for the logistic model, and in 1981 and 1999 for the generalized model. Simulated results revealed that the logistic estimates were close to the true value for low CVs (coefficients of variation) but widely dispersed for high CVs. In contrast, the generalized model estimates were loose for all CV levels. The estimated production model curve parameter was not reasonable at all the tested levels of white noise. With the increase in white noise R2 for the catch per unit effort decreased. Therefore, we conclude that the logistic model performs more reasonably than the generalized production model.     

Assessment of South Pacific Albacore Stock （Thunnus alalunga ） by Improved Schaefer Model

Based on catch and effort data of tuna longline fishery operating in the South Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific al-bacore stock was assessed by an improved Schaefer model. The results revealed that the intrinsic growth rate was about 1.28374 and carrying capacities vareied in the range from 73734 to 266732 metric tons. The growth ability of this species is remarkable. Stock dynamics mainly depends on environmental conditions. The stock is still in good condition. However, the continuous decreasing of biomass in recent years should be noticed.     

Modeling a habitat suitability index for the eastern fall cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the central North Pacific Ocean

The eastern fall cohort of the neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, has been commercially exploited by the Chinese squid jigging fleet in the central North Pacific Ocean since the late 1990s. To understand and identify their optimal habitat, we have developed a habitat suitability index (HSI) model using two potential important environmental variables - sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) - and fishery data from the main fishing ground (165°-180°E) during June and July of 1999-2003. A geometric mean model (GMM), minimum model (MM) and arithmetic weighted model (AWM) with different weights were compared and the best HSI model was selected using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). The performance of the developed HSI model was evaluated using fishery data for 2004. This study suggests that the highest catch per unit effort (CPUE) and fishing effort are closely related to SST and SSHA. The best SST- and SSHA-based suitability index (SI) regression models were SISST-based = 0.7SIeffort-SST + 0.3 SICPUE-SST, and SISSHA-based = 0.5SIeffort-SSHA + 0.5SICPUE-SSHA, respectively, showing that fishing effort is more important than CPUE in the estimation of SI. The best HSI model was the AWM, defined as HSI=0.3SISST-based+ 0.7SISSHA-based, indicating that SSHA is more important than SST in estimating the HSI of squid. In 2004, monthly HSI values greater than 0.6 coincided with the distribution of productive fishing ground and high CPUE in June and July, suggesting that the models perform well. The proposed model provides an important tool in our efforts to develop forecasting capacity of squid spatial dynamics.     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter derived wave period with ocean buoy data in the East China Sea and South China Sea

Altimeter wave period data obtained from continental shelf seas are analyzed in this paper. Empirical models are introduced for zero up-crossing and peak wave period calculation with TOPEX/POSEIDON data. Their performances are assessed using independent validation dataset in four sites in the open ocean of China. To provide more accurate wave period estimation, new coefficients are applied to reliable in situ data. Comparison of our estimated the wave periods with new linear calibrations based on independent data of Seapac 2100 deployed in the East China Sea and South China Sea showed that the accuracy was improved over estimates determined from earlier empirical models. Regional analysis indicated that the wave period model works better under wind sea condition.     

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

The instantaneous total mortality rate(Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis,abundance and catch forecast,and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort(CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method,the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time,but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant,and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z,and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates(the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore,the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them,but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod(G adus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997,and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.     

Eco-environmental spatial characteristics of Fildes Peninsula based on TuPu models

This study applies a TuPu analysis to investigate ecological and environmental aspects of an Antarctic ice-free area, using Fildes Peninsula as an example. The TuPu unit was determined using a vector-grid mixed data model. Information from the eco-environment elements was effectively extracted, and was generalized into different classes by means of data mining technol- ogy. A series of single-factor thematic information TuPu models, such as topography, soil, animal and vegetation, and human activities for Fildes Peninsula were built in this study. The topography TuPu model contained information on elevation and slope. The soil TuPu model involved soil development stages and soil thickness information. The animal and vegetation TuPu model contained the distribution of animals, plant types, lichen cover and lichen height. The human activities TuPu model included popu- lation density and human disturbance index information. The landscape comprehensive information TuPu model of Fildes Penin- sula also was established, and contains twenty-nine landscape units and twelve types of combined environments. The study quan- titatively revealed the spatial morphology and correlation of the regional eco-environment based on the analysis of these TuPu models. From these models, we can draw the conclusion that there is a regular differentiation of eco-environment from the coastal bands to the central hills in Fildes Peninsula, and that the eco-environment condition of the eastern coasts is different from that of the western coasts. The eco-environmental spatial variation also differs greatly from north to south. Based on analysis of spatial correlation, the vegetation in Fildes Peninsula has the greatest correlation with human activity, and has a certain correlation with topography and soil. This research may provide a new technical approach and scientific basis for the in-depth study of Antarctic eco-environments.     

Pyrolytic and kinetic analysis of coastal plant Xanthium sibiricum

The fuel properties of coastal plant Xanthium sibiricum were investigated in thermogravimetrics.The distributed activation energy model was employed in the kinetic analysis and a simplified mathematical model that can predict the thermogravimetry curves was proposed.The results show that the initial decomposition temperature tends to increase with the heating rate.The distributed E values ranged from 169.08 to 177.43 kJ/mol,and the frequency factor values ranged from 6.59× 10~8 to 1.22×10~(12)/s at different conversion rates.Furthermore,the prediction made with the simplified mathematical model perfectly matched the experimental data,and the model was found to be simple and accurate for the prediction of devolatilization curves.     

Integrating CART algorithm and multi-source remote sensing data to estimate sub-pixel impervious surface coverage: a case study from Beijing Municipality,China

The sub-pixel impervious surface percentage(SPIS) is the fraction of impervious surface area in one pixel,and it is an important indicator of urbanization.Using remote sensing data,the spatial distribution of SPIS values over large areas can be extracted,and these data are significant for studies of urban climate,environment and hydrology.To develop a stabilized,multi-temporal SPIS estimation method suitable for typical temperate semi-arid climate zones with distinct seasons,an optimal model for estimating SPIS values within Beijing Municipality was built that is based on the classification and regression tree(CART) algorithm.First,models with different input variables for SPIS estimation were built by integrating multi-source remote sensing data with other auxiliary data.The optimal model was selected through the analysis and comparison of the assessed accuracy of these models.Subsequently,multi-temporal SPIS mapping was carried out based on the optimal model.The results are as follows:1) multi-seasonal images and nighttime light(NTL) data are the optimal input variables for SPIS estimation within Beijing Municipality,where the intra-annual variability in vegetation is distinct.The different spectral characteristics in the cultivated land caused by the different farming characteristics and vegetation phenology can be detected by the multi-seasonal images effectively.NLT data can effectively reduce the misestimation caused by the spectral similarity between bare land and impervious surfaces.After testing,the SPIS modeling correlation coefficient(r) is approximately 0.86,the average error(AE) is approximately 12.8%,and the relative error(RE) is approximately 0.39.2) The SPIS results have been divided into areas with high-density impervious cover(70%–100%),medium-density impervious cover(40%–70%),low-density impervious cover(10%–40%) and natural cover(0%–10%).The SPIS model performed better in estimating values for high-density urban areas than other categories.3) Multi-temporal SPIS mapping(1991–2016) was conducted based on the optimized SPIS results for 2005.After testing,AE ranges from 12.7% to 15.2%,RE ranges from 0.39 to 0.46,and r ranges from 0.81 to 0.86.It is demonstrated that the proposed approach for estimating sub-pixel level impervious surface by integrating the CART algorithm and multi-source remote sensing data is feasible and suitable for multi-temporal SPIS mapping of areas with distinct intra-annual variability in vegetation.     

Spatiotemporal factors affecting fish harvest and their use in estimating the monthly yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China

We used generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between spatiotemporal factors and catch, and to estimate the monthly marine fishery yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China. We used logbooks from five commercial fishing boats and data in government’s monthly statistical reports. We developed two GAM models: one included temporal variables (month and hauling time) and spatial variables (longitude and latitude), and another included just two variables, month and the number of fishing boats. Our results suggest that temporal factors explained more of the variability in catch than spatial factors. Furthermore, month explained the majority of variation in catch. Change in spatial distribution of fleet had a temporal component as the boats fished within a relatively small area within the same month, but the area varied among months. The number of boats fishing in each month also explained a large proportion of the variation in catch. Engine power had no effect on catch. The pseudo-coefficients (PCf) of the two GAMs were 0.13 and 0.29 respectively, indicating the both had good fits. The model yielded estimates that were very similar to those in the governmental reports between January to September, with relative estimate errors (REE) of <18%. However, the yields in October and November were significantly underestimated, with REEs of 36% and 27%, respectively.     

Standardization of CPUE for Chilean Jack Mackerel （Trachurus murphyl） from Chinese Trawl Fleets in the High Seas of the Southeast Pacific Ocean

The generalized linear model （GLM） and generalized additive model （GAM） were applied to the standardization of catch per unit effort （CPUE） for Chilean jack mackerel from Chinese factory trawl fishing fleets in the Southeast Pacific Ocean from 2001 to 2010 by removing the operational, environmental, spatial and temporal impacts. A total of 9 factors were selected to build the GLM and GAM, i.e., Year, Month, Vessel, La Nifia and E1 Nifio events （ELE）, Latitude, Longitude, Sea surface temperature （SST）, SST anomaly （SSTA）, Nino3.4 index and an interaction term between Longitude and Latitude. The first 5 factors were significant components in the GLM, which in combination explained 27.34% of the total variance in nominal CPUE. In the stepwise GAM, all factors explained 30.78% of the total variance, with Month, Year and Vessel as the main factors influencing CPUE. The higher CPUE occurred during the period April to July at a SST range of 12-15℃ and a SSTA range of 0.2-1.0℃. The CPUE was significantly higher in normal years compared with that in La Nifia and E1 Nifio years. The abundance of Chilean jack mackerel declined during 2001 and 2010, with an increase in 2007. This work provided the relative abundance index of Chilean jack mackerel for stock as- sessment by standardizing catch and effort data of Chinese trawl fisheries and examined the influence of temporal, spatial, environ- mental and fisheries operational factors on Chilean jack mackerel CPUE.     

A Method for Retrieving Water-leaving Radiance from Landsat TM Image in Taihu Lake, East China

The visible and infrared bands of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) can be used for inland water studies. A method of retrieving water-leaving radiance from TM image over Taihu Lake in Jiangsu Province of China was investigated in this article. To estimate water-leaving radiance, atmospheric correction was performed in three visible bands of 485nm, 560nm and 660nm. Rayleigh scattering was computed precisely, and the aerosol contribution was estimated by adopting the clear-water-pixels approach. The clear waters were identified by using the Landsat TM middle-infrared band (2.1μm), and the water-leaving radiance of clear water pixels in the green band was estimated by using field data. Aerosol scattering at green band was derived for six points, and interpolated to match the TM image. Assuming the atmospheric correction coefficient was 1.0, the aerosol scattering image at blue and red bands were derived. Based on a simplified atmospheric radiation transfer model, the water-leaving radiance for three visible bands was retrieved. The water-leaving radiance was normalized to make it comparable with that estimated from other remotely sensed data acquired at different times, and under different atmospheric conditions. Additionally, remotely sensed reflectance of water was computed. To evaluate the atmospheric correction method presented in this article, the correlation was analyzed between the corrected remotely sensed data and the measured water parameters based on the retrieval model. The results show that the atmospheric correction method based on the image itself is more effective for the retrieval of water parameters from Landsat TM data than 6S (Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum) code based on standard atmospheric and aerosol models.     

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping along Bhalubang–Shiwapur Area of Mid-Western Nepal Using Frequency Ratio and Conditional Probability Models

Roads constructed in fragile Siwaliks are prone to large number of instabilities. Bhalubang–Shiwapur section of Mahendra Highway lying in Western Nepal is one of them. To understand the landslide causative factor and to predict future occurrence of the landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) of this region was carried out using frequency ratio(FR) and weights-of-evidence(W of E) models. These models are easy to apply and give good results. For this, landslide inventory map of the area was prepared based on the aerial photo interpretation, from previously published/unpublished reposts, and detailed field survey using GPS. About 332 landslides were identified and mapped, among which 226(70%) were randomly selected for model training and the remaining 106(30%) were used for validation purpose. A spatial database was constructed from topographic, geological, and land cover maps. The reclassified maps based on the weight values of frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence were applied to get final susceptibility maps. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps were verified andcompared with the training data, as well as with the validation data. From the analysis, it is seen that both the models were equally capable of predicting landslide susceptibility of the region(W of E model(success rate = 83.39%, prediction rate = 79.59%); FR model(success rate = 83.31%, prediction rate = 78.58%)). In addition, it was observed that the distance from highway and lithology, followed by distance from drainage, slope curvature, and slope gradient played major role in the formation of landsides. The landslide susceptibility maps thus produced can serve as basic tools for planners and engineers to carry out further development works in this landslide prone area.     

Interannual and Seasonal Variability of Winter-Spring Cohort of Neon Flying Squid Abundance in the Northwest Pacific Ocean During 1995–2011

The neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, is a species of economically important cephalopod in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Its short lifespan increases the susceptibility of the distribution and abundance to the direct impact of the environmental conditions. Based on the generalized linear model(GLM) and generalized additive model(GAM), the commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995 to 2011 were used to examine the interannual and seasonal variability in the abundance of O. bartramii, and to evaluate the influences of variables on the abundance(catch per unit effort, CPUE). The results from GLM suggested that year, month, latitude, sea surface temperature(SST), mixed layer depth(MLD), and the interaction term(SST×MLD) were significant factors. The optimal model based on GAM included all the six significant variables and could explain 42.43% of the variance in nominal CPUE. The importance of the six variables was ranked by decreasing magnitude: year, month, latitude, SST, MLD and SST×MLD. The squid was mainly distributed in the waters between 40?N and 44?N in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The optimal ranges of SST and MLD were from 14 to 20℃ and from 10 to 30 m, respectively. The squid abundance greatly fluctuated from 1995 to 2011. The CPUE was low during 1995–2002 and high during 2003–2008. Furthermore, the squid abundance was typically high in August. The interannual and seasonal variabilities in the squid abundance were associated with the variations of marine environmental conditions and the life history characteristics of squid.     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

Spatial distribution of the oxygen-18 in precipitation in China based on a new empirical model

Modeling the oxygen-18 in precipitation based on regional topography and meteorological factors is helpful to constrain missing isotopic data in some regions that is required for many paleoclimate,eco-hydrological and atmospheric circulation studies.Therefore, the relationship between δ~(18)O in precipitation(δ~(18)O_(PPT)) and the affecting factors need to be thoroughly understood. We present a model considering the combined effects of temperature,altitude, and latitude on the spatial variability of annual average of stable isotopes in precipitation across China. This new model performed significantly better(P0.05) than the widely used Farquhar and Bowen Wilkinson models. Our model allows modelling the spatial distribution of isotopes in precipitation depending on temperature variation.The residuals of presented model did not significantly correlate with altitude. Based on the model and residuals, a high-resolution map of annual average δ~(18)O_(ppt) across China was generated. δ~(18)O_(PPT) decreased from low toward high latitudes and from low towardshigh altitudes area. The model application provides important information for ancient climate,hydrological cycle and water vapor sources studies.     

WIND FORCED TRANSPORT FLUCTUATIONS OF THE FLORIDA CURRENT WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA

Volume transport fluctuations of the Florida Current (Gulf Stream), generated within the Straits of Florida by local meridional wind stress, is investigated. A simple coastal response model was applied to the Straits of Florida and forced by along-channel winds only. The predicted volume transports were in good agreement with transport estimates derived from moored current meters and cable voltages for winter winds. Surprisingly, good agreement was also found for the annual transport cycle for the two years of available data, suggesting that the seasonal change in local along-channel wind forcing provides a significant contribution to the annual transport cycle of the Gulf Stream.