Global financial crisis making a V-shaped fluctuation in NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> pollution over the Yangtze River Delta

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China’s main cultural and economic center, has become one of the most seriously polluted areas in the world with respect to nitrogen oxides (NO_x), owing to its rapid industrialization and urbanization, as well as substantial coal consumption. On the basis of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) density data from ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) and ground-based observations, the effects of industrial fluctuations due to the financial crisis on local NO₂ pollution were quantitatively assessed. The results were as follows. (1) A distinct V-shaped fluctuation of major industrial products, thermal generating capacity, electricity consumption, and tropospheric NO₂ densities was associated with the global financial crisis from May 2007 to December 2009, with the largest anomalies 1.5 times more than standard deviations at the height of the crisis period from November 2008 to February 2009. (2) Among all industrial sectors, thermal power plants were mainly responsible for fluctuations in local NO₂ pollution during the crisis period. Thermal generating capacity had its greatest decrease of 12.10% at the height of the crisis compared with that during November 2007–February 2008, leading to local tropospheric NO₂ density decreasing by 16.97%. As the crisis appeased, thermal generating capacity increased by 29.63% from November 2009 to February 2010, and tropospheric NO₂ densities correspondingly increased by 30.07%. (3) Among all industrial sectors in the YRD, the thermal power sector has the greatest coal consumption of about 65.96%. A decline in thermal power of about 10% can induce a decrease of about 30% in NO_x emissions and NO₂ densities, meaning that a relative small fluctuation in industrial production can lead to a large decrease in tropospheric NO₂ densities over industrially developed areas like the YRD region. Since electricity is mainly obtained from local coal-burning thermal plants without NO_x-processing equipment, installing NO_x-removal devices for all thermal power plants is an important and feasible way of controlling local NO_x pollution at present.     

Spatiotemporal Variations of Cloud Amount over the Yangtze River Delta, China

Based on the NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended(PATMOS-x) monthly mean cloud amount data, variations of annual and seasonal mean cloud amount over the Yangtze River Delta(YRD), China were examined for the period 1982–2006 by using a linear regression analysis. Both total and high-level cloud amounts peak in June and reach minimum in December, mid-level clouds have a peak during winter months and reach a minimum in summer, and lowlevel clouds vary weakly throughout the year with a weak maximum from August to October. For the annual mean cloud amount, a slightly decreasing tendency(–0.6% sky cover per decade) of total cloud amount is observed during the studying period, which is mainly due to the reduction of annual mean high-level cloud amount(–2.2% sky cover per decade). Mid-level clouds occur least(approximately 15% sky cover) and remain invariant, while the low-level cloud amount shows a significant increase during spring(1.5% sky cover per decade) and summer(3.0% sky cover per decade). Further analysis has revealed that the increased low-level clouds during the summer season are mainly impacted by the local environment. For example,compared to the low-level cloud amounts over the adjacent rural areas(e.g., cropland, large water body, and mountain areas covered by forest), those over and around urban agglomerations rise more dramatically.     

长三角城市群下垫面变化气候效应的模拟研究

利用法国动力气象实验室发展的高分辨可变网格大气环流模式LMDZ,分别通过LMDZ的高分辨可变网格区域版及其全球版模式的数值模拟,研究长三角城市群下垫面变化带来的夏季气候效应,并尝试探讨大尺度环流的响应.其中LMDZ高分辨区域模式的模拟结果表明长三角城市群下垫面变化可导致夏季长三角地区接受的净辐射明显增加,感热通量上升,潜热通量下降,引起局地地表温度显著上升.同时西太平洋副热带高压西伸北抬控制长三角地区,反气旋性水汽通量异常,导致该地区降水异常减少.进一步对LMDZ全球模式的模拟结果分析,发现长三角城市群下垫面变化可能会引起大气基本模态的变化,进而引起南北半球中高纬异常波列结构的出现.     

长江三角洲地区近50a的气温变化特征分析

利用线性拟合、小波分析、Mann-Kendall方法对长江三角洲地区的五个城市(上海、无锡、杭州、湖州、嘉兴)近50年的逐日气温资料进行了倾向、周期、突变等特性分析.研究结果表明:近50年来,长江三角洲地区气温呈上升趋势,上海升温速度最快,为0.73℃/10a,其它四个城市的气温增加率为0.23℃/10a.气候的长期变化还具有一定的突变性,五个城市的气温均在20世纪90年代出现显著升高,90年代各城市的平均气温普遍比前40年高出约0.96℃.在95%的置信度下,五个城市的气温均呈现3～4年的准周期变化.     

基于CMORPH资料的长三角城市化对降水分布特征影响的观测研究

利用CMORPH卫星降水资料和NCEP风场资料,综合分析了长江三角洲地区南京、杭州、上海、苏州等主要城市的降水分布特征,结果表明:长三角城市效应主要表现在对夏半年降水强度空间分布的影响,具体表现为在700 hPa平均引导气流控制下,城市中心和下风向地区的夏半年降水强度比上风向地区增加5%～15%,最大值通常位于城市中心下游20～70 km。冬半年主要城市周围的降水量、降水时间和降水强度的空间变化都比较小,城市效应对降水分布特征没有明显的影响。长三角城市因地理位置的差异,不同城市降水的下游效应存在差别。夏半年南京、杭州、无锡、苏州、常州等城市的下风向地区比上风向地区降水强度明显增加,城市效应显著。上海和宁波受到海洋影响明显,夏半年低层海风侵入范围较广,夏季降水强度的高值中心偏向海风的下游方位,可能是受到海风环流和城市热岛环流的共同影响。距离上风城市较近的镇江等城市,降水强度的分布受到上风城市降水强度下游效应的影响。     

长江三角洲地区四省会城市PM10污染特征

对长江三角洲地区四省会城市(上海、南京、杭州、合肥)2001-2005年逐日大气污染指数资料进行统计分析,并采用HYSPLIT轨迹模式,分析了各城市中度以上大气污染过程的输送特征。结果表明:2002年以后,四省会城市的大气质量都有好转的趋势;大气污染发生频率最高的季节是春季(南京)和冬季(其他城市);11月和3月是大气污染出现频率最高的月份。上海PM10与NO2和SO2浓度之间存在非常显著的正相关,合肥PM10与NO2和SO2浓度之间的相关性比上海略差。两城市都是PM10与NO2之间的偏相关系数远大于与SO2之间的偏相关系数。各城市的PM10浓度都与另外三个城市之间存在显著的正相关,尤其是3,4月份。后向轨迹分析表明,造成本地区中度以上大气污染的气团以西北来向为主。     

用TRMM/LIS资料分析长江三角洲地区的闪电活动

统计分析了1998~2004年长江三角洲(长三角)地区由星载闪电成像传感器(LIS)观测的闪电资料，发现了该地区LIS闪电活动的一些时空分布特征:闪电次数的年差异较大，最多年份是最少年份的3倍；7~8月盛夏季节是闪电高发期，闪电次数和日数分别占全年的70%和60%；闪电高发期间的抬升指数(IL)小于-2℃；7~8月闪电主要集中于午后，3~6月则集中在上半夜；上海地区单日LIS闪电次数超过8次时，多伴有强对流天气和短时强降水；长三角地区的闪电活动区主要分布在上海的东部，部分沿江、沿湖地区和浙江的龙门山等山区；水域闪电少于陆地，大城市城区下风方向闪电活动较多，部分雷暴刚入海时有加强的趋势。分析表明:太阳辐射的季节变化和日变化等是造成闪电时间分布的主要原因；地形的动力作用和下垫面的物理特性及其差异是造成气候意义上中小尺度闪电空间分布差异的主要原因。文章对LIS闪电定位资料进行了探测效率订正，根据LIS注视时间计算了闪电密度，并与地基闪电定位资料和多普勒天气雷达资料进行了对比。LIS闪电活动特征的分析，对雷暴预警和防灾减灾有指导意义。     

长江三角洲城市群对夏季日降水特征影响的模拟研究

利用耦合了单层城市冠层模型UCM的中尺度模式WRF,探讨了长江三角洲地区城市化对夏季日降水特征的影响。结果表明,WRF模式能较好地再现长三角地区2003—2007年夏季降水的空间分布,比较成功地模拟出了降水中心的位置及强度。城市化使得长三角地区夏季降水日数减少了1～5 d,这种降水日数的减少主要是由于城市化使小雨日数减少引起。城市化增强了长三角大部分地区的日降水强度。进一步对长三角地区4个典型城市群宁镇扬、苏锡常、上海和杭州湾城市群进行了夏季降水日变化分析,得出城市化对降水日变化的影响存在一定的区域差异。对于长三角整个大城市群,城市化对降水量、降水强度日峰值出现时刻以及降水强度日峰值大小无明显影响,而使得降水量日峰值减少。城市化使得苏锡常地区降水量日峰值略有增加,宁镇扬和上海地区降水量日峰值都减小,而杭州湾城市群区降水量日峰值出现时刻延后。城市化使得4个典型城市群降水强度日变化曲线形态发生改变,使得上海地区降水强度日峰值出现时刻延后,使得杭州湾城市群区夜雨增强。     

长江三角洲城市群对夏季降水影响机制的模拟研究

利用耦合了单层城市冠层模型UCM的中尺度模式WRF,对长江三角洲城市群夏季城市化效应进行了5 a(2003—2007年)高分辨数值模拟,并作了长江三角洲地区有无城市的对比试验。结果表明,城市化使得长三角城市群及其邻近地区,夏季近地层水汽混合比呈明显减少趋势,而850~700 h Pa层的水汽混合比有所增大。通过对比有与无城市各等级降水日所对应的2 m水汽混合比,得出小雨降水日对应的2 m水汽混合比差异与总降水日对应的差异最为接近。通过分析环流场、散度场和垂直速度场发现,水汽混合比的垂直变化是由于城市群的存在使得近地层辐合、850~700 h Pa层辐散的配置增强,以及在城市群上空增强了的垂直上升运动,从而增强城区对流活动,水汽的垂直输送也更为活跃,由此可能导致对流性降水的增加。     

长三角地区11月大雾频次变化的天气气候背景

采用1977—2006年长三角地区5个国家气候一级站的1日4次地面气象观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR相关资料,初步分析了该地区11月区域雾频次变化的天气气候背景。结果表明,长三角11月区域雾少发（多发）时,500hPa高空为较强的西北风（平直的西风）,850hPa上为强西北风（弱西北、东北风）,低层925hPa上偏北风分量较大且相对湿度较小（偏北风减小并出现偏东风分量且相对湿度较大）,海平面气压场上长三角受强冷高压控制（位于弱高压底前部均压区内）。     

Spatial Source Contributions Identification of Acid Rain over the Yangtze River Delta Using a Variety of Methods

The source-receptor relation of wet deposition has been a continuous issue in studies of regional environmental pollution over the past two decades.In the absence of direct observational evidence,the problem is difficult to solve—a topic of broad international debate since the turn of the present century.In the present study,a variety of methods focused on the sources of the wet deposition of acidic substances,like sulfate and nitrate,were used to investigate the precipitation chemistry over the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)during 2007.Back-trajectory analysis associated with the observation data and a source tracing method coupled with the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System(NAQPMS)are proved to be effective methods for investigating the sources of wet deposition over the YRD.Comparison among the back-trajectory,footprint,and NAQPMS results shows good consistency,both qualitatively and quantitatively.The most important contributor to acidic substances in the YRD,as well as heavy acid rain over the region,is the anthropogenic pollution from East China,which accounts for more than 70%.     

基于CMAQ-MCM模型的长三角地区夏季臭氧和大气氧化性影响的研究

传统的空气质量模型多使用简化的光化学反应机制来模拟大气污染物的形成.这些机制主要基于烟雾箱实验拟合的反应速率和产物来模拟二次产物（如臭氧（O₃））前体物的氧化反应,具有一定的不确定性,导致模拟结果产生偏差.针对该问题,本研究将详细的大气化学机理（MCMv3.3.1）与美国国家环境保护局研制的第三代空气质量预报和评估系统CMAQ相结合（CMAQ-MCM）,模拟研究长三角地区2015年8月27—9月5日臭氧高发时段的空气质量.CMAQ-MCM模型可以较好地模拟长三角地区6个代表城市O₃和其前体物随时间的变化趋势.对模拟的O₃日最大8 h平均浓度的统计分析表明,徐州表现最好（标准平均误差=-0.15,标准平均偏差=0.23）.在长三角地区,居民源对挥发性有机物（VOCs）的贡献最大,占39.08%,其次是交通运输（33.25%）和工业（25.56%）.能源对总VOCs的贡献最小,约为2.11%.对活性氧化氮（NO_y）的分析表明,其主要组分是NO_x（80%）,其次是硝酸（HNO₃）（<10%）.O₃的空间分布与NO_y和NO_x非常相似.HCHO等其他氧化产物的分布与NO_x相似,这很可能是由于在高NO_x条件下VOCs氧化产生的产物.甲基乙烯基酮（MVK）和甲基丙烯醛（MACR）的空间分布与自然源VOCs （BVOCs）非常相似,表明长三角地区MVK和MACR主要由BVOCs氧化生成.长三角地区受到人为源和自然源排放相互作用的影响.     

Monthly Variations of Atmospheric Circulations Associated with Haze Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and North China

Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.     

Field Scientific Experiment in the Yangtze River Delta Area

ThefieldexperimentconcemingtheNationalNaturalFundprogramInteractionofPhysical-ChemicalProcessesintheLowerAtmosphereandEcosystemintheYangtzeRiverDeltaRegionstartedinJuneofl999.Theobservationisdividedintotwoparts:AtmosphericQualityObseFVationTheatmosphericq…     

Remote impacts from the tropical Indian Ocean on haze pollution in January over the Yangtze River Delta

近年来,长三角霾事件频发,对人类和生态系统健康造成了严重危害,结果表明:热带印度洋12月海温与长三角1月霾日数呈显著正相关,特别是1999-2017年.12月,海温正异常加热上层空气,1月在对流层上层激发类似MatSuno-Gill模态和一系列Rossby波列,将信号传输至长三角,随后向下游日本海和阿留申群岛传播.长三...     

一次长江三角洲飑线的综合分析

该文利用多种气象资料（包括常规观测、卫星云图、自动气象站、多普勒气象雷达以及风廓线仪资料）,综合分析了2002年8月24日发生在长江三角洲的一次飑线过程。发现该飑线产生于一个中尺度对流系统（MCS）当中,地面冷锋、副高边缘的高能水汽输送带与高空小槽配合,使该MCS得以发展和加强,副高南撤和下游有利的动力和层结条件使得MCS中的雷暴群发展为飑线,并迅速东移南压,产生了大范围雷雨大风天气。多普勒雷达、自动站及风廓线仪的资料还很好地揭示了该飑线的发生、发展、爆发过程及其回波和风场的空间结构特点。     

长江三角洲地区人体舒适度时空变化特征北大核心CSCD

基于1981~2020年ERA5逐小时再分析资料,采用通用热气候指数(Universal Thermal Climate Index,UTCI)计算方法,分析了气候变化背景下长江三角洲地区人体生理热响时空变化特征。研究表明:近40年长江三角洲地区人体无冷热胁迫气候条件的出现频率约为43.77%、热胁迫和冷胁迫出现频率分别约为22.42%和33.81%,其中,显著热胁迫和显著冷胁迫出现频率分别约为8.38%和1.58%;在空间分布上,长江三角洲地区无冷热胁迫气候条件的出现频率总体表现为南多北少地带性分布,兼有山区多平原少、沿海多内陆少分布特征,显著热胁迫主要出现在皖西和皖南的平原以及浙江的嘉绍平原和金衢盆地,显著冷胁迫主要出现在苏北、皖北和舟山以北的沿海岸区;在全球气候变暖背景下,长江三角洲地区UTCI值的年代际变化呈上升趋势,由1981~1990年13.83℃增加至2011~2020年14.75℃,人体生理热响应表征为冷胁迫减少、热胁迫增加、无冷热胁迫基本不变,春季无冷热胁迫时长的增加基本抵消了夏季无冷热胁迫时长的减少。     

长三角地区雾的时空分布及频次模型研究

根据1980—2006年长三角地区6个站点累计27a的雾资料,分析了长江三角洲地区雾的时间、空间分布特征。结果表明,秋末、冬季和春季长江三角洲地区雾频次较多,夏季较少,年平均雾日数呈缓慢减少趋势;雾区域分布不均匀,总体说来是东多西少。在此基础上,用时间序列方法建立了雾频次预测模型,并对2007年1—12月各月的雾频次进行预测检验,结果表明预测值与实际值误差较小,该模型具备较好的预测能力。     

Statistical estimation of high-resolution surface air temperature from MODIS over the Yangtze River Delta,China

High-resolution surface air temperature data are critical to regional climate modeling in terms of energy balance, urban climate change, and so on. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) to estimate air temperature at a high resolution over the Yangtze River Delta region, China. It is found that daytime LST is highly correlated with maximum air temperature, and the linear regression coefficients vary with the type of land surface. The air temperature at a resolution of 1 km is estimated from the MODIS LST with linear regression models. The estimated air temperature shows a clear spatial structure of urban heat islands. Spatial patterns of LST and air temperature differences are detected, indicating maximum differences over urban and forest regions during summer. Validations are performed with independent data samples, demonstrating that the mean absolute error of the estimated air temperature is approximately 2.5°C, and the uncertainty is about 3.1°C, if using all valid LST data. The error is reduced by 0.4°C (15%) if using best-quality LST with errors of less than 1 K. The estimated high-resolution air temperature data have great potential to be used in validating high-resolution climate models and other regional applications.     

长江三角洲地区净生态系统二氧化碳通量及浓度的数值模拟

净生态系统碳通量(NEE)的计算对于准确模拟区域碳通量和大气CO₂浓度的时空变化至关重要。本文利用中尺度大气-温室气体耦合模式WRF-GHG(Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Greenhouse Gases Module),对2010年7月28日至2010年8月2日期间影响长江三角洲地区大气CO₂浓度及时空分布的各种过程进行了详尽模拟。结果表明,植被光合呼吸模型(VPRM)能模拟不同植被下垫面NEE的日变化;WRF-GHG模拟的大气CO₂浓度日变化与观测相吻合,但低估了大气CO₂浓度5~15 ppm(ppm表示10-6),这可能与人为排放源的低估、VPRM参数的不确定性以及气象场模拟的不准确性有关。太湖和植被覆盖较好的地区如浙江北部山区是该地区的主要碳汇,而城市为CO₂的主要排放源。太湖和陆地生态系统对区域内碳循环起到一定的调节作用,减缓区域大气CO₂浓度的升高。此外,局地气象条件如湖陆风对太湖周边地区大气CO₂浓度有显著影响。