Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment,Australia

Abstract

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0–3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.     

Impactite generation in the El’gygytgyn depression,northeast Russia,as a volcanic phenomenon. 2. On the petrography and geochemistry of the impactites

A detailed petrographic study of the impactites found in the El’gygytgyn depression suggested a division of those into the dacite-rhyolite (dominant) and the andesite-basalt (about 1% of the total impactite volume) groups. The protolith for the dacite-rhyolite group was the Cretaceous ignimbrite rock association of the Okhotsk-Chukchi volcanic belt (OChVB), from which the depth of their origin is estimated as 1–1.5 km. The impactites of the andesite-basalt group, which are generally older, formed from protoliths of apparently metamorphic and magmatic complexes in the OChVB basement occurring at depths of 6.5–8.5 km. The hypothesis that the depths of origin for these groups are different is supported by certain features of clinopyroxene composition. Geochemical relationships are found to exist between deep and shallow impactites, as shown in the distribution of Ni, Cr, and Co. The succession of development for the shallow impactite generation forms the following series: impact ignimbrite → pumice → cinder → massive glass. The glasses have the most homogeneous overall chemical composition, but these too are characterized by a high inhomogeneity in the composition of the vitric phases, indicating a rapid and discrete impactite generation that impeded melt homogenization. The glasses are the final product of impactite generation; they show a dramatic drop in fluid content and the associated reducing components.     

Assessing the status of an artisanal shrimp fishery in a Ramsar wetland in Jamaica: The effects of seasonality,extreme La Niña episodes and elevated temperature on landings

An invasive crayfish, Cherax quadricarinatus, and several native shrimp species (Macrobrachium acanthurus, Macrobrachium faustinum, Macrobrachium carcinus, Xiphocaris elongata, and Atyidae sp.) found in the Black River Lower Morass (BRLM), a Ramsar Wetland in Jamaica, support subsistence and artisanal fisheries. Management of this fishery requires information on factors that influence their abundance. Consequently, we assessed the effects of seasonality, extreme and double La Niña episodes (in 2011) and elevated atmospheric temperature (in 2011 and 2012) on weekly Decapoda landing data, collected over a period of two years (2010–2012). The catch of native species showed a cyclical trend every 6 months, coinciding with the dry and wet seasons. The invasive crayfish landing showed a reverse trend during the first year, after which no pattern could be discerned. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA) model with two common trends and four explanatory variables (conductivity, mean weekly number of traps hauled, weekly mean water level, and mean dissolved oxygen) was the optimal model to characterize the variation in wet-weight landings. A generalized additive mixed model with an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) error structure was used to show that the extreme and double La Niñas were associated with lower monthly atmospheric temperature. Sea surface temperature anomaly in region 3 (a proxy to ENSO) and the trend in temperature were then used to predict the wet weight of native shrimp (U-shaped relationship) and the invasive crayfish (reverse-j shaped relationship), respectively. The native shrimp (mean sustainable yield, MSY = 3469 kg and mean catch per fisher = 2.67 kg) and invasive crayfish (MSY = 11 kg and mean catch per fisher = 0.67 kg) are under fished, although populations of the native shrimp are possibly declining, whereas that of the invasive crayfish may be growing. The declining trend may have adverse implications for the stock of the native shrimp species, which has a higher economic value, if fishing pressure is not reduced/restricted or increased on the invasive crayfish, especially during seasonal and/or ENSO related declines in native shrimp stocks.     

The near-field method: a modified equivalent linear method for dynamic soil–structure interaction analysis. Part II: verification and example application

Usually for modeling of soil in a direct soil–structure interaction (SSI) problem, the equivalent linear soil properties are used. However, this approach is not valid in the vicinity of a foundation, where the soil experiences large strains and a high level of nonlinearity because of structural vibrations. The near-field method was developed and described in a companion paper to overcome this limitation. This method considers the effects of large strains and suggests a shear modulus and a damping ratio further modified in the near-field of a foundation. Validity and performance of this approach are evaluated, application examples are explained and the results of a parametric study about the role of soil and structure parameters in the extent of SSI effects on the nonlinear seismic response of structures are presented in this paper. One real existing and five, ten, fifteen and twenty story moment-resisting frame steel buildings with two different site conditions corresponding to firm and soft soils are considered and the responses obtained from the near-field method are compared with the recorded and rigorous responses. Moreover, various SSI modeling techniques are employed to investigate the accuracy and performance of each approach. The results show that the near-field method is a simple yet accurate enough approach for analysis of direct SSI problems.     

Space–time relationships between volcanic associations of different alkalinities: The Belogolovskii Massif,Sredinnyi Range,Kamchatka. Part II. Geochemistry of volcanic rocks and magma sources

Data are presented relating to volcanic series in the Belogolovskii Massif, Sredinnyi Range, Kamchatka. We discuss new geochronologic data, the distributions of rare elements and platinum elements in the rocks, and list the isotope characteristics of volcanic series with normal and moderate alkalinities. We show that the Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene rocks that belong to the moderate alkaline series of the Belogolovskii volcanic massif are different from rocks in the normally alkaline series of the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene volcanogenic basement in having higher concentrations of the HFSE and LILE components. We propose a model for the generation of moderate alkaline magmas involving a heterogeneous depleted and a heterogeneous enriched source of material. According to the isotope data, one of these sources may be the subducted oceanic lithosphere of the Pacific and the Commander-Islands type, while the other source was recycled material of the Indian MORB type.     

Internal flow structures in columnar jointed basalt from Hrepphólar, Iceland: II. Magnetic anisotropy and rock magnetic properties

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and rock magnetic properties were measured on specimens from a basalt plate that was cut from a vertical section of a basalt column from Hrepphólar, Iceland. Macroscopic structures are clearly distinguishable in the plate, including banding inferred to represent viscous fingering parallel to the vertical axis of the column. Rock magnetic experiments indicate that the dominant ferromagnetic (sensu lato) mineral is titanomagnetite, Fe _3?x Ti _x O₄, with a Ti-composition of x?=?~0.6. Magnetic properties are related to the position within the plate and reveal a dominant volume fraction of single domain titanomagnetite in the center of the basalt column, with multidomain titanomagnetite away from the center. The AMS determined by low-field measurements shows an inconclusive relationship with the visual structures, which arises from variation of the grain size (i.e., single domain versus multidomain) across the column. In contrast, the AMS measured with a high-field torsion magnetometer avoids the complication of magnetic domain state, as is demonstrated in this contribution, and additionally allows for the separation of ferrimagnetic from paramagnetic sub-fabrics. Both sub-fabrics display a clear relationship with the macroscopic structures and support the hypothesis that vertical flow of melt took place during development of the Hrepphólar columnar basalt. Maximum susceptibility axes of the ferrimagnetic sub-fabric are grouped near the vertical axis of the column. The paramagnetic sub-fabric varies systematically across the column in coincidence with internal structure. The shape of the magnetic susceptibility ellipsoid varies across the basalt column, showing an increasingly prolate fabric toward its center.     

The 1976–1982 Strombolian and phreatomagmatic eruptions of White Island,New Zealand: eruptive and depositional mechanisms at a ‘wet’ volcano

White Island is an active andesitic-dacitic composite volcano surrounded by sea, yet isolated from sea water by chemically sealed zones that confine a long-lived acidic hydrothermal system, within a thick sequence of fine-grained volcaniclastic sediment and ash. The rise of at least 10⁶ m³ of basic andesite magma to shallow levels and its interaction with the hydrothermal system resulted in the longest historical eruption sequence at White Island in 1976–1982. About 10⁷ m³ of mixed lithic and juvenile ejecta was erupted, accompanied by collapse to form two coalescing maar-like craters. Vent position within the craters changed 5 times during the eruption, but the vents were repeatedly re-established along a line linking pre-1976 vents. The eruption sequence consisted of seven alternating phases of phreatomagmatic and Strombolian volcanism. Strombolian eruptions were preceded and followed by mildly explosive degassing and production of incandescent, blocky juvenile ash from the margins of the magma body. Phreatomagmatic phases contained two styles of activity: (a) near-continuous emission of gas and ash and (b) discrete explosions followed by prolonged quiescence. The near-continuous activity reculted from streaming of magmatic volatiles and phreatic steam through open conduits, frittering juvennile shards from the margins of the magma and eroding loose lithic particles from the unconsolidated wall rock. The larger discrete explosions produced ballistic block aprons, downwind lobes of fall tephra, and cohesive wet surge deposits confined to the main crater. The key features of the larger explosions were their shallow focus, random occurrence and lack of precursors, and the thermal heterogeneity of the ejecta. This White Island eruption was unusual because of the low discharge rate of magma over an extended time period and because of the influence of a unique physical and hydrological setting. The low rate of magma rise led to very effective separation of magmatic volatiles and high fluxes of magmatic gas even during phreatic phases of the eruption. While true Strombolian phases did occur, more frequently the decoupled magmatic gas rose to interact with the conduit walls and hydrothermal system, producing phreatomagmatic eruptions. The form of these wet explosions was governed by a delicate balance between erosion and collapse of the weak conduit walls. If the walls were relatively stable, fine ash was slowly eroded and erupted in weak, near-continous phreatomagmatic events. When the walls were unstable, wall collapse triggered larger discrete phreatomagmatic explosions.     

Book Review: Die Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik 1851-2001, 150 Jahre Meteorologie und Geophysik in Österreich by Ch. Hammerl,W. Lenhardt,R. Steinacker and P. Steinhaus (Eds.), Leykam Buchverlagsgesellschaft m.b.H., Graz,Austria, 2001, ISBN 3-7011-7437-7

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

Displacement of large-scale open solar magnetic fields from the zone of active longitudes and the heliospheric storm of November 3–10, 2004: 1. The field dynamics and solar activity

The dynamics of the large-scale open field and solar activity at the second stage of the MHD process, including the origination and disappearance of the four-sector structure during the decline phase of cycle 23 (the stage when the blocking field is displaced from the main zone of active longitudes), has been considered. Extremely fast changes in the scales of one of new sectors (from an extremely small sector (“singularity”) to a usual sector that originated after the uniform expansion (“explosion”) of singularity with a “kick” into the zone of active longitudes, westward motion of the MHD disturbance front in the direction of solar rotation, and formation of an active quasi-rigidly corotating sector boundary responsible for the heliospheric storm of November 2004) have been detected in the field dynamics. It has been indicated that a very powerful group of sunspots AR 10656 (which disappeared after the explosion) with an area of up to 1540 ppmh (part per million hemisphere), a considerable deficit of the external energy release, and zero geoeffectiveness in spite of the closeness to the Earth helioprojection existed within singularity. It has been assumed that the energy escaped from this group with effort owing to the interaction between coronal ejections and narrow sector walls (singularity), and a considerable part of the energy was released in the outer layers of the convective zone, as a result of which singularity exploded and this explosion was accompanied by the above effects in the large-scale field and solar activity.     

SH Wave Number Green’s Function for a Layered,Elastic Half-Space. Part I: Theory and Dynamic Canyon Response by the Discrete Wave Number Boundary Element Method

We present a closed-form frequency-wave number (ω – k) Green’s function for a layered, elastic half-space under SH wave propagation. It is shown that for every (ω – k) pair, the fundamental solution exhibits two distinctive features: (1) the original layered system can be reduced to a system composed by the uppermost superficial layer over an equivalent half-space; (2) the fundamental solution can be partitioned into three different fundamental solutions, each one carrying out a different physical interpretation, i.e., an equivalent half-space, source image impact, and dispersive wave effect, respectively. Such an interpretation allows the proper use of analytical and numerical integration schemes, and ensures the correct assessment of Cauchy principal value integrals. Our method is based upon a stiffness-matrix scheme, and as a first approach we assume that observation points and the impulsive SH line-source are spatially located within the uppermost superficial layer. We use a discrete wave number boundary element strategy to test the benefits of our fundamental solution. We benchmark our results against reported solutions for an infinitely long circular canyon subjected to oblique incident SH waves within a homogeneous half-space. Our results show an almost exact agreement with previous studies. We further shed light on the impact of horizontal strata by examining the dynamic response of the circular canyon to oblique incident SH waves under different layered half-space configurations and incident angles. Our results show that modifications in the layering structure manifest by larger peak ground responses, and stronger spatial variability due to interactions of the canyon geometry with trapped Love waves in combination with impedance contrast effects.