Precursory swarm and its application for long range earthquake forecasting in Taiwan region

At trenches a few earthquake swarms of low magnitude have been observed before the medium size earthquake swarms. The first swarm was designated as precursory swarm and the second as mainshocks. Seismicity fluctuations before six such mainshocks events of medium size earthquakes of magnitudes ranging from 5.3 to 6.1 occurring in the east belt of Taiwan region have been discussed. A precursory gap between the precursory swarm and mainshock events has been observed. The duration of the gaps increases with magnitudes of the mainshocks suggesting a causal relationship between the two. Regression equations between the largest magnitude in the precursory swarms, the largest mainshock magnitude and the precusory gaps have been given.     

Volcanic earthquake swarms at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica

Mount Erebus is an active volcano in Antarctica located on Ross Island. A convecting lava lake occupies the summit crater of Mt. Erebus. Since December 1980 the seismic activity of Mt. Erebus has been continuously monitored using a radio-telemetered network of six seismic stations. The seismic activity observed by the Ross Island network during the 1982–1983 field season shows that: (1)Strombolian eruptions occur frequently at the Erebus summit lava lake at rates of 2–5 per day; (2)centrally located earthquakes map out a nearly vertical, narrow conduit system beneath the lava lake; (3)there are other source regions of seismicity on Ross Island, well removed from Mt. Erebus proper. An intense earthquake swarm recorded in October 1982 near Abbott Peak, 10 km northwest of the summit of Mt. Erebus, and volcanic tremor accompanying the swarm, may have been associated with new dike emplacement at depth.     

Volcanic earthquakes of Kamchatka: classification, nature of source and spatio-temporal distribution

Volcanic earthquakes on Kamchatka can be divided into two large groups: earthquakes with depths of 0–40 km generated by stresses which arise during magma migration in the Earth's crust under volcanos (the first group), and the earthquakes directly connected with the eruptions (volcanic tremor, explosive earthquakes, etc.—the second group). This paper presents a review of some energetic, spectral and spatio-temporal characteristics of the Kamchatkan volcanic earthquakes of the first group and their relationship with volcanic phenomena.

Seismicity related to volcanic activity has the following specific features: a local and predominantly swarm-like pattern of earthquake origination; iteration of earthquake swarms in the same seismically active zones; many shallow and relatively small events; a small magnitude limit (up to 5.5–6); the existence of longer-period variations of volcanic earthquake foci as compared to the tectonic one; and a comparatively high value of the slope of the earthquake recurrence plot. At the same time, similarity in behaviour of some parameters of the seismic regime during the preparation and development of eruptions and prior to large earthquakes, as well as the destruction of samples, are noted.     

200-m-deep earthquake swarm in Tricastin (lower Rhône Valley, France) accounts for noisy seismicity over past centuries

In the lower Rhône Valley (France), the Tricastin area was struck in 2002–2003 by an earthquake swarm with a maximum M _L-magnitude of 1.7. These shocks would have gone unnoticed if they had not occurred beneath habitations and close to the surface, some events being only 200-m deep. A several months' monitoring of the seismic activity by a 16-station mobile network showed that earthquakes clustered along a N–S-trending, at least 5-km long, shallow rupture zone, with no corresponding fault mapped in the surface. Half of the seismic events occurred in a massive, c.  250-m-thick, Lower Cretaceous limestone slab that outcrops near by. Since the late eighteenth century, several much more severe earthquake swarms have struck Tricastin. The 1772–1773 and 1933–1936 swarms were prolific and protracted, with reports of numerous detonations and even damage. Obviously, the abnormal noises that caused panic in the past centuries can be explained by the shallowness of the phenomena, a 200-m focal depth being perhaps a record value for tectonic earthquakes.     

Earthquake swarms in continental rifts — A comparison of selected cases in America, Africa and Europe

The occurrence of earthquake swarms is typically related to magmatic activity in volcanoes, yet swarms are also common in other intracontinental regions such as continental rifts. We present here a summary of geophysical observations that have been made in earthquake swarm areas of the Rio Grande, Kenya, and Eger rifts, focusing on characteristic parameters for the origin and generation of the swarm earthquakes.Our compilation of seismological parameters such as spatial distribution and focal parameters of hypocenters, magnitude statistics, and the location of the swarm centres in the rift environments reveals major similarities. The earthquake swarms take place at shallow depth between 0 and 10 km. The maximum magnitudes are mostly less than 4.5. The b-values, indicating the magnitude frequency relation of the seismicity, are about 0.8. They are hence not deviating from a normal non-volcanic intraplate environment, but are considerably lower than those of volcanic earthquake swarms. Focal mechanism studies give uniform pictures of stress field orientation and faulting style for the swarm areas. In all three rifts, the centres of swarm activity seem to be restricted to rift valley sections that may be influenced by large-scale fracture or shear zones that intersect the rifts. We conclude that these deep-reaching zones of weakness allow intrusions of upper mantle material into crustal layers, where magma-related fluids or fluctuations of the magma bodies themselves cause the generation of earthquake swarms.     

Meteorological triggering of earthquake swarms at Mt. Hochstaufen, SE-Germany

A growing body of evidence suggests that fluids are intimately linked to a variety of faulting processes. Yet, the particular mechanisms through which fluids and associated parameters influence the stress regime and thus the seismicity of a particular area are not well understood.We carry out a study of the spatio-temporal behavior of earthquakes, fluid-related parameters (groundwater levels) and meteorological observables (precipitation) in the swarm earthquake area of Bad Reichenhall, southeastern Germany. The small volume in which the earthquakes take place, almost yearly occurring earthquake swarms and a permanent, seismo-meteorological monitoring network, provide nearly controlled experimental conditions to study the physics of earthquake swarms and to infer characteristic properties of the seismogenic crust.In this paper we (1) describe this fairly unique study area in terms of geology, seismicity and atmospheric conditions; (2) present two cases of earthquake swarms that seem to follow above-average rainfall events; and (3) examine the observed migration of hypocenters with a simple pore pressure diffusion model.We find significant correlation of seismicity with rainfall and groundwater level increase, and estimate an average hydraulic diffusivity of D = 0.75 ± 0.35 m²/s for Mt. Hochstaufen in 2002.     

Seismic activity in the McNaughton Lake area, Canada

Filling of McNaughton Lake, with a capacity at full load of25 · 10⁹m³ and maximum depth 191 m, was initiated on March 29, 1973. An earthquake swarm of 747 events (M_L > 0) with largest eventM_L = 4.7 occurred within 17 km of the reservoir just prior to loading. Subsequent to this, three swarms of 194, 292 and 22 events with maximumM_L = 4.1 occurred in the same region; however, no earthquakes have occurred between the reservoir and the swarm area. The level of regional seismic activity is similar to that observed prior to loading. The distribution of this activity, excluding swarm events, exhibits a spatial pattern similar to that recorded earlier by regional seismic stations, except that several events appear to be associated with the fault underlying the Rocky Mountain Trench in which the lake is formed. During a loading-unloading cycle in which the maximum water depth varied from 98 m to 171 m to 131 m, the change ofv_p was less than 2%. This indicates that no significant change in dilatancy or degree of water saturation occurred in the upper crustal layer during this cycle.     

Hypocenter migration of fluid-induced earthquake swarms in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland)

The Tjörnes Fracture Zone separates Iceland's North Volcanic Zone from Kolbeinsey-Ridge (Greenland-Sea). Seismicity mainly occurs in swarms, often 100 and more per day, with similar waveforms and frequently offshore.We analysed three earthquake swarms between June and September 2004, recorded by 35 stations, i.e. the permanent Icelandic SIL network and a temporary setup of land and ocean-bottom-seismometers, and 5 swarms of the years 1994-1997 only using the sparser SIL network. Events occurring in the same swarm often show similar waveforms at the same station. We cross-correlated these time series by using a new approach of three component cross-correlation in order to relocate the hypocenters relative within the swarms and to precisely determine the direction and velocity of migration. Our method delivered good relocations with small spatial and temporal errors. This allows the interpretation and characterisation of the observed earthquake swarms. We try to classify observed migration velocities by comparing them to typical fluid- and crack-propagation velocities and determine focal-mechanisms and orientation of the best fitting plane through the hypocenter distribution.We separate the investigated events into two types of earthquake swarms, supposedly dike-induced and hydrothermally- or gas-induced swarms, by pointing out typical characteristics of both types and by comparing them to similar events of other volcanic regions. Based on different migration velocities, we will discuss possible mechanisms and their triggers of all single clusters within a swarm. Hypothetic models will be established, trying to explain the processes during the swarm episodes and to derive possible pre-eruptive patterns from the character of seismicity.     

Usage of an early warning and information system Web-site for real-time seismicity in Iceland

Iceland has been subjected to destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout history. Such events are often preceded by changes in earthquake activity over varying timescales. Although most seismicity is confined to micro-earthquakes, large earthquakes have occurred within populated regions. Following the most recent hazardous earthquakes in 2000, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) developed an early warning and information system (EWIS) Web-site for viewing near-real-time seismicity in Iceland. Here we assess Web-site usage data in relation to earthquake activity, as recorded by the South Iceland Lowland (SIL) seismic network. Between March 2005 and May 2006 the SIL seismic network recorded 12,583 earthquakes. During this period, the EWIS Web-site logged a daily median of 91 visits. The largest onshore event (M _L 4.2) struck 20 km from Reykjavík on 06 March 2006 and was followed by an immediate, upsurge in usage resulting in a total of 1,173 unique visits to the Web-site. The greatest cluster of large (≥M _L 3) events occurred 300 km offshore from Reykjavík in May 2005. Within this swarm, 9 earthquakes ≥M _L 3 were detected on 11 May 2005, resulting in the release of a media bulletin by IMO. During the swarm, and following the media bulletin, the EWIS Web-site logged 1,234 unique visits gradually throughout the day. In summary, the data reveal a spatial and temporal relationship between Web-site usage and earthquake activity. The EWIS Web-site is accessed immediately after the occurrence of a local earthquake, whereas distant, unfelt earthquakes generate gradual interest prompted by media bulletins and, possibly, other contributing factors. We conclude that the Internet is a useful tool for displaying seismic information in near-real-time, which has the capacity to help increase public awareness of natural hazards.     

华北南缘古元古代末岩墙群侵位的磁组构证据

华北克拉通南缘的中条山及邻区广泛发育元古宙放射状基性岩墙群,与五台山-恒山和大同地区的北北西向基性岩墙群以及熊耳中条拗拉谷的火山岩在时空分布和地球化学方面均具有密切的相关性。中条山及邻区放射状基性岩墙群的宏观和微观流动构造(包括捕虏体、冲痕构造、矿物线理和定向斑晶)指示岩墙群以一定的仰角向北西侵位。通过该区岩墙群磁化率各向异性(AMS)测量得到磁组构的最大磁化率长轴优势方位分布图和磁组构各向异性特征分析进一步指示华北南缘古元古代末岩墙群从熊耳中条拗拉谷的底部向北西侵位。岩墙群的流动构造和磁组构的统计成果夯实了华北克拉通古元古代末基性岩墙群与熊耳中条拗拉谷的成生联系。     

Space-time seismicity and earthquake swarms: Certain observations along the slow-spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridges

The slow spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridge system containing the Carlsberg, Central and Southwest Indian ridges is seismically very active. In the present study, a detailed analysis has been carried out of the data of earthquake sources along different ridge segments in order to investigate the spatial and temporal clustering patterns and to evaluate crustal processes related to the swarm occurrences along these ridges. The spatial and temporal clustering pattern of the recent earthquakes (1980–1990) pertaining to nine major spreading segments and eight fracture zones suggests that the events cluster in greater proportion along the spreading segments than along the fracture zones. We performed a systematic search of earthquake catalogue during the period 1964–1990 by examining the spatio-temporal hypocentral clusters in order to identify the swarm occurrences along these ridges. The search included eighteen prominent sequences, of which, thirteen were earthquake swarms. Except two, all other swarms were found to be occurring mainly on the spreading segments. The maximum magnitude observed in these swarms is m_b = 5.4 and have many events predominantly showing normal faulting mechanisms. The spatial disposition and temporal activity of the events in swarms is much similar to the foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences observed along the spreading rift valley zones. These characteristics help us to support that swarms along the slow spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridges are the result of extensional tectonic activity, leading to the development of the median valley topography, a mechanism similar to that proposed by Bergman and Solomon (1990) for the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.     

On the possibilities of premonitory swarms for three sequences of earthquakes of the Burma—Szechwan region

Short term spatial and temporal variations in seismicity prior to the three sequences of earthquakes of m_b 5.8 of the Burma—Szechwan region are studied. Six years (1971–1976) of ISC seismicity data, as reported in the Regional Catalogue of Earthquakes, are considered. During the period, six earthquakes of body wave magnitude m_b 5.8 occurred in four sequences. Of these, three sequences are preceded by swarm activity in the epicentral regions. Evison (1977b) suggested that the swarm before the sequences of large shocks is a possible long-term precursor. He derived the conclusion by analyzing earthquakes in New Zealand and California. The analysis of the seismicity data for the region under investigation supports Evison's view and suggests that a relation between swarms and sequences of large events exists. The precursory time period (i.e. the time from beginning of the swarm to the main shock) for the Szechwan earthquakes of m_b = 5.9 (Feb. 6, 1973) and m_b = 5.8 (May 10, 1974) and the Burma earthquake of m_b = 6.2 (Aug. 12, 1976) are 305, 317 and 440 days, respectively.     

基于简化Newmark模型的长白山天池火山诱发崩塌滑坡危险性评价

火山喷发过程所伴生的地震活动会诱发大量的崩塌滑坡次生灾害,其所造成的人员财产损失甚至超过火山活动本身。2002年以来长白山天池火山区地震活动的异常,表明火山深部的岩浆正在发生变化,天池火山存在喷发的危险。地震崩塌滑坡的危险性区划是降低生命财产损失的有效手段。将火山伴生地震作为崩塌滑坡灾害的诱发因素并据此设置地震参数,利用简化的Newmark累积位移模型,考虑地形因素对地震的放大效应,对长白山地区天池火山喷发下次生崩塌、滑坡灾害的危险性进行评价。通过探讨不同地震震级下的危险性分区结果,认为不同地震参数的设置对危险性分区结果没有影响。将研究区划分为极高、高、中等、低、极低等5个危险等级,其中,极高危险区主要分布在3个区域:以天池口为中心,40km为半径的范围内;沿江乡—两江镇—松江镇条带区域;长白县境内鸭绿江沿岸区域。     

The foreshock sequence of haicheng earthquake and earthquake swarm—the use of foreshock sequences in earthquake prediction

We have compared the Haicheng foreshock sequence with several earthquake swarms which occurred in its neighborhood. The spatial distribution of the earthquakes is relatively concentrated. For the most part, the events occurred within a few kilometers of each other. The focal mechanisms are comparatively stable. However, there are several swarms in which the variations of focal mechanisms are quite obvious after the occurrence of the largest event of the sequence, which would allow it to be recognized as a swarm. However, there are also swarms whose focal mechanisms are no less stable throughout the sequence compared to the Haicheng foreshock sequence. This feature could thus not be used to identify a foreshock sequence. The temporal distributions of foreshocks and swarms are quite similar in some cases. This is again not a definite criterion for identifying foreshocks, but is worthy of further study. Thus, no definite criterion for identifying foreshock sequences has been found. However, some earthquake swarms may be recognized in their later stage.Finally, we introduced a magnitude sequence with gaps which can be used to see whether a large event is still forthcoming. This method (in conjunction with other methods) could be used in areas prone to large earthquakes, immediately before a large event, to improve the probability of predicting the occurrence of a large event. We also report that the temporal distribution of all the sequences showed a 12-hour recurrence pattern that corresponded with the earth tides, indicating that tidal forces might be influencing foreshocks and earthquake swarm occurrence.     

Seismicity of the Baikal rift system from regional network observations

In the paper we report the state-of-the-art of seismicity study in the Baikal rift system and the general results obtained. At present, the regional earthquake catalog for fifty years of the permanent instrumental observations consists of over 185,000 events. The spatial distribution of the epicenters, which either gather along well-delineated belts or in discrete swarms is considered in detail for different areas of the rift system. At the same time, the hypocenters are poorly constrained making it difficult to identify the fault geometry. Clustered events like aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms are typical patterns in the region; moreover, aftershocks of M ⩾ 4.7 earthquakes make up a quarter of the whole catalog. The maximum magnitude of earthquakes recorded instrumentally is M_LH7.6 for a strike-slip event in the NE part of the Baikal rift system and M_LH6.8 for a normal fault earthquake in the central part of the rift system (Lake Baikal basin). Predominant movement type is normal faulting on NE striking faults with a left lateral strike-slip component on W–E planes. In conclusion, some shortcomings of the seismic network and data processing are pointed out.     

Shear‐wave splitting and earthquake forecasting

Seismic shear‐wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low‐level deformation of fluid‐saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large earthquakes to be stress‐forecast. The effects have been seen with hindsight before some 15 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from an M1.7 seismic swarm event in Iceland to the Ms7.7 Chi‐Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, including a successfully stress‐forecast of a M5.0 earthquake in SW Iceland. Characteristic increases in SWS time‐delays are observed before large earthquakes, which abruptly change to deceases shortly before the earthquake occurs. There is a linear relationship between magnitudes and logarithms of durations of both increases and decreases in SWS time‐delays before large impending earthquakes. However, suitably persistent swarms of small earthquakes are too scarce for routine stress‐forecasting. Reliable forecasting requires controlled‐source cross‐hole seismics between neighbouring boreholes in stress‐monitoring sites (SMS). It would be possible to stress‐forecast damaging earthquakes worldwide by a global network of SMS in real time.     

Seismicity associated with active, new-born, and re-awakening basaltic volcanoes: case review and the possible scenarios for the Harraat volcanic provinces, Saudi Arabia

During April–June 2009, a swarm of more than 30,000 earthquakes struck the Harrat Lunayyir, situated in the north-western end of the Saudi Arabian Harraat, east of the Red Sea. This sharp increase in the seismic activity in the region of ancient basaltic volcanic centers indicated a likelihood of a future eruption. To check the situation, a short review of the best-documented seismic activity associated with active, new-born, and re-awakening basaltic volcanoes is presented in this article. Basing on the review, some regularity in the development of seismic activity associated with basaltic eruptions was formulated. Three stages in the development of seismic activity were identified: preliminary, preceding, and continuous. The duration of preceding stage varies from a few hours for active and re-awakened volcanoes to some weeks for new-born volcanoes and may serve as a criterion for discriminations of different types of basaltic eruptions. The duration of the seismic activity during the 2009 episode at Harrat Lunayyir was longer than any activity preceding the basaltic eruptions of different types. Therefore, the most probable scenario is the arrest of sub-surface intrusion without any eruption in the region of Harrat Lunayyir. The next probable scenario would be the dike injections along the rift zones. The re-awakening of the old Harrat Lunayyir volcano or the birth of a new volcano at Harrat Lunayyir is less probable.     

福建仙游地区高精度地震震源定位及深部断裂特征

福建仙游位于福建省东南沿海中部,其周边地区历史地震活动较平静,属于弱震区。但自从该地区的金钟水库于2010年5月下闸蓄水后,库区附近的地震活动性随之增强。为深入了解该地区的地震活动性、地震分布特征以及寻找隐伏断层,利用中国地震局提供的地震初至震相数据,使用双差定位方法对仙游地区近10年发生的地震进行重定位,获得了更为精确的震源位置,并根据重定位结果模拟深部断裂,寻找隐伏断层。结果显示：(1)重定位后的震源位置更加集中,按照发震时间可分为4个活动区,主要沿沙县—南日岛的次级断裂石苍断裂两侧北西向线性分布。(2)重定位后仙游震群的震源深度主要为8～11 km。石苍断裂左侧地震条带震源深度为6～12 km;右侧地震条带呈现明显的分层现象,上层西北侧地震较为分散,东南侧地震分布较紧凑,震源深度同左侧一样为6～12 km,而下层地震较少,震源深度为14～23 km。(3)根据重定位后的震源位置,利用奇异值分解法拟合得到三个深部断层面,其倾向均为南西向,走向为北西向,与石苍断裂和潼关断裂的倾向和走向一致。结合前人研究成果和本研究结果,推测石苍断裂并不是主发震断层,而是其两侧存在的深部断裂(高倾角隐...     

广东省及邻区新生代以来构造运动与地震活动分区的研究

综合分析多年来地震地质调查资料,将广东省及部分邻区划分为具不同构造活动特点的6个区,分别论述、分析这些区内新生代以来的断裂构造、火山喷发、第四纪沉积及地震活动等。结果认为,由断层样品热释光测定确定的断层最近期活动年龄主要是在中更新世和晚更新世,沿海地带主要为晚更新世和全新世。新生代以来构造具继承性活动的地区是地震最活动地区,如琼雷地区。同时,由于历史上发生过强震,地震后至今具较大速率下沉地区,在今后相当长时间内可能是不易发生强震地区,如琼北东部和南澎-南澳地区;Ms6级地震将主要发生在晚更新世以来的新生盆地,如潮汕盆地和近岸海湾地区;Ms5级地震在一定条件下,几乎可能发生在省内的任何地区。