Rainfall over Oman and its teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation

The Sultanate of Oman is located in the south-eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula and covers the larger part of the southern coasts of the Arabian Peninsula in both arid and semi-arid environments except for the southern part which is swept by the monsoon affecting the Arabian Sea during the period from June to September. The summer rainfall over Oman shows year-to-year variability, and this is caused by oceanic and atmospheric influences. In the present study, we tried to explore the influence of El Niño on the rainfall over Oman using different data sets. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique employed to the zonal wind at 850 hPa for the 30-year period shows that the second and third modes of EOF are showing high variability over the Oman regions. The corresponding PCs were subjected to FFT analysis, and it showed a peak about 5–6 years. In addition to this, the zonal wind over the Oman regions is correlated with the global zonal wind and found a significant correlation (1 % significant level). It has already been proved that the wind and rainfall during summer monsoon is in phase. Moreover, the spectral analysis of rainfall at Masirah station and the Niño3.4 index show the similar mode of variability indicating a direct relationship. The correlation between rainfall and the Niño3.4 index is also showing a positive significant value, and therefore, it can be concluded that the El Niño in the Pacific favours rainfall over the Oman region.     

Experimental Phase Relations of Water- and Sulfur-Saturated Arc Magmas and the 1982 Eruptions of El Chich?n Volcano

The equilibrium phase relations of two volcanic rocks from thesubduction-related Mexican Volcanic Belt have been determinedwith an argon-pressurized internally heated vessel. One rockis the trachyandesite erupted from El Chich?n Volcano in 1982;the other is a primitive basalt erupted from Jorullo Volcanoin 1759. A simplified synthetic equivalent to the trachyandesitewas also investigated in lesser detail. All charges were saturatedwith hydrous vapor and a sulfur-bearing mineral. Temperatureranged from 800 to 1000?C, pressure from 1 to 4 kb, and f_o2was controlled by four different solid oxygen buffers in a doublegold capsule configuration: fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ),Ni-NiO (NNO), manganosite-hausmanite (MNH), and magnetite-hematite(MTH). Pyrrhotite was the only sulfur-bearing mineral observed in chargesbuffered under FMQ and NNO, whereas anhydrite crystallized underthe more oxidizing MNH or MTH; both of these observations areconsistent with those of earlier workers. With increasing temperatureand pressure, SiO₂ and K₂O decreased in the experimental melts,whereas Al₂O₃ and CaO increased. Sulfur solubility in silicatemelts was low (<0?1 wt% equivalent SO^t₃) for pyrrhotite-saturatedcharges, but significantly greater (to 1?3 wt.% SO^t₃) when anhydritewas present. Sulfur solubility in anhydrite-saturated meltsshowed strong positive dependence on both temperature and P_vapor. Sulfur amounted to some 2?5 wt.% (SO^t₃) of the total ejectaduring the 1982 El Chich?n eruptions, and the original magmaticsulfur content was in the range 1?25–2–5 wt% SO^t₃.Extrapolations of experimental temperature and pressure dependencesfor sulfur solubility indicate that such concentrations couldbe contained in a hydrous, oxidized, basaltic parent melt generatedunder Benioff zone conditions. During ascent through the uppermantle and crust, the sulfur solubility limit of the melt wouldcontinuously decrease; in response, most of the sulfur wouldbe transferred from the melt to anhydrite crystals and a separategas phase. Trachyandesite pumices erupted from El Chich?n in1982 contained both pyrrhotite and anhydrite at a temperatureof 800?C. The composition of the natural pyrrhotite yieldedan f_o2 estimate 1 log unit above the NNO buffer. Based on compositionalvariations in the experimental melts with temperature and pressure,the composition of the matrix glass in the 1982 pumices indicatesequilibration of the magmatic liquid at about P_total=P_vapor=2kb just before eruption. At that time, sulfur in El Chich?ntrachyandesite was about equally partitioned between anhydritemicrophenocrysts and some 20 vol.% gas phase in which H₂S wasprobably the dominant sulfur-bearing species. The melt thencontained only 0?05 wt.% SO^t₃, consistent with experimentalsolubility limits at 800?C and P_vapor=2 kb.     

About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.     

Hydrochemical and isotopic study of groundwater in Wadi El Hechim–Garaa Hamra basin, Central Tunisia

Hydrochemical and isotopic study of Miocene and Mio-Plio-Quaternary (M-P-Q) aquifers in Wadi El Hechim?CGaraa Hamra basin, Central Tunisia was undertaken in order to investigate recharge mode and processes leading to mineralization of groundwater as well as interaction between both systems. The results revealed striking differences between the two aquifer systems. While the Miocene aquifer contains recently recharged waters with generally low mineralization (around 0.5?g?L^?1), stemming mainly from dissolution of carbonate minerals, the M-P-Q aquifer reveals TDS values reaching 3?g?L^?1, controlled mainly by dissolution of evaporitic minerals. Isotopic data indicate that the Miocene aquifer contains water recharged in past several decades (bomb tritium and bomb radiocarbon detected). The M-P-Q system appears to be much slower, with time scales of groundwater flow possibly reaching some thousands of years. Sharp discontinuity of hydrochemical and isotope characteristic of groundwater observed across the major tectonic fault separating the Miocene and M-P-Q aquifers supports the idea of very limited (if any) hydraulic interconnection between both studied systems. This in turn calls for revision of existing conceptual models of groundwater flow in the region postulating significant groundwater fluxes crossing the fault in the direction of M-P-Q aquifer and adjacent aquifers in the Wadi al Fakka plain.     

Adventures in Data Analysis: The TAO Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño

Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.

     

Adventures in Data Analysis: The TAO Array and the 1997–1998 El Ni?o

Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.     

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1–3 meteotsunamis with wave heights >0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March–April and June–August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods <6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods (1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2015–2016). Meteotsunamis were also active in 2005, a year characterized by exceptionally intense tropical cyclone activity. Meteotsunami incidence varied yearly and at periods between 2 and 5 years. Results from cross-wavelet analysis suggested that El Niño and meteotsunami activity are correlated at annual and longer-period bands.     

The 1997 El Niño,Indonesian Forest Fires and the Malaysian Smoke Problem: A Deadly Combination of Natural and Man-Made Hazard

The El Niño of 1997–1998 produced the most intenseimpact on the conterminous U.S.A., generating a seriesof powerful rain and wind storms off the coast ofCalifornia in early February 1998. The 1997–1998 ElNiño also produced severe flooding and extensive mudslides along the west coast of South America andprolonged drought conditions in northeast Brazil. Onthe other (west) side of the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño produced the worst drought in 50 years overIndonesia and helped spread the ongoing forest fireson the island of Borneo to well over one millionacres. In this paper, the smoke and pollution problem overMalaysia will be analyzed in the context of ongoingIndonesian forest fires and the severity of the 1997El Niño – a deadly combination which led to the mosthazardous smoke problem over Malaysia duringAugust–September 1997. The severity of the smokepollution is documented using media reports andavailable API (air pollution index) values overselected cities in Malaysia. The role of the El Niñoand its evolution in enhancing the smoke pollutionover Malaysia is further discussed and suitably documented.Some of the mitigation measures presently beingadopted in Malaysia to combat the smoke pollution arebriefly discussed.     

Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference

Natural Hazards - The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano constitutes the worst volcanic disaster in Mexico producing more than 2000 fatalities, thousands of displaced people and severe...     

El Chichón volcano, April 4, 1982: volcanic cloud history and fine ash fallout

This retrospective study focuses on the fine silicate particles (<62 µm in diameter) produced in a large eruption that was otherwise well studied. Fine particles represent a potential hazard to aircraft, because as simple particles they have very low terminal velocities and could potentially stay aloft for weeks. New data were collected to describe the fine particle size distributions of distal fallout samples collected soon after eruption. Although, about half of the mass of silicate particles produced in this eruption of ~1 km³ dense rock equivalent magma were finer than 62 µm in diameter, and although these particles were in a stratospheric cloud after eruption, almost all of these fine particles fell to the ground near (<300 km) the volcano in a day or two. Particles falling out from 70 to 300 km from the volcano are mostly <62 µm in diameter. The most plausible explanation for rapid fallout is that the fine ash nucleates ice in the convective cloud and initiates a process of meteorological precipitation that efficiently removes fine silicates. These observations are similar to other eruptions and we conclude that ice formation in convective volcanic clouds is part of an effective fine ash removal process that affects all or most volcanic clouds. The existence of pyroclastic flows and surges in the El Chichón eruption increased the overall proportion of fine silicates, probably by milling larger glassy pyroclasts.     

Stratigraphy and tectonics of the Early to Middle Proterozoic transition,Katherine‐El Sherana area,Northern Territory

Abstract

Two unconformity‐bound groups of volcanic rocks and associated sediments (El Sherana and Edith River Groups) separate the older Pine Creek Geosyncline metasediments from platform cover of the McArthur Basin. Dominated by intersecting NW and ENE rift systems, the volcanics are genetically related to an extensional tectonic system which was also active during deposition of the Pine Creek Geosyncline sequence. In contrast, the younger platform cover was deposited in a relatively stable environment. The rift valleys were filled with rhyolite flows, ignimbrite and ill‐sorted arenite and rudite, and flyschoid sediments spread onto adjacent lands. Following tight upright folding, granite intrusion and erosion, an extensive ignimbrite sheet (=6000 km²) spread from a centre probably at the intercept of the two rifts. Microgranite at this intersection was possibly emplaced in the evacuated magma chamber. The volcanic sequences were deeply eroded and weathered before platform cover deposition began. The platform sediments, represented in the area by the Kombolgie Formation, were deposited from about 1690 Ma to 1650 Ma, and their base is taken as the closest stratigraphic indicator of the boundary between the Early and Middle Proterozoic.     

东亚冬季冷暖变化与El Ni?o事件

近十年来,东亚冬季气温明显升高。本文分析证明,东亚温度变化与赤道东太平洋和北太平洋重要洋流区的海表面温度(SST)有密切的遥相关。如果赤道东太平洋SST异常偏高(或异常偏低),即出现埃尔尼诺(或反埃尔尼诺)事件,则在其后7～24个月中,我国华北和东北将出现暖冬(或冷冬),渤海冰情将出现轻冰年(或重冰年)。据此建立的回归预报方程,对1988/1989年和1989/1990年冬季渤海海冰的预报结果完全正确。     

Barents Sea hydrodynamics change during the El Niño event

On the basis of model calculations, mutually fitted fields were obtained for the key hydrophysical properties in the vicinity of the hydrological sections executed in the Barents Sea during 1997–1998. Integrated analysis of these data allowed us to evaluate the variability of crucial hydrodynamic conditions: the decrease of supply of relatively warm and saline North Atlantic waters with compensatory inflow of Arctic waters; the decrease of total heat content and increase of thermal convection; the weakening of water dynamics in the system of general cyclone circulation; and the abnormally cold winter in 1997–1998 with the increase in the ice covering of the Barents Sea. With a high confidence probability, it was found that considerable deviations from the mean weather conditions took place in response to the El Niño global disturbance of the same period, with the maximum southern oscillation index (SOI) in January–March 1998. The El Niño signal in the baric field of the Arctic basin, noted even in November–December 1997 as a crest of increased pressure, reached its maximum development in April–June 1998 in the form of a well-pronounced atmospheric anticyclone. Recognizing the natural correlation of this phenomenon and the maximum SOI value, one may state that the Barents Sea responds to an El Niño event in about three months. This circumstance should be used as an important parameter for climate forecasting.     

Geochemical constraints on the origin of mafic and silicic magmas at Cordón El Guadal, Tatara-San Pedro Complex, central Chile

The aim of this study is to quantify the crustal differentiation processes and sources responsible for the origin of basaltic to dacitic volcanic rocks present on Cordón El Guadal in the Tatara-San Pedro Complex (TSPC). This suite is important for understanding the origin of evolved magmas in the southern Andes because it exhibits the widest compositional range of any unconformity-bound sequence of lavas in the TSPC. Major element, trace element, and Sr-isotopic data for the Guadal volcanic rocks provide evidence for complex crustal magmatic histories involving up to six differentiation mechanisms. The petrogenetic processes for andesitic and dacitic lavas containing undercooled inclusions of basaltic andesitic and andesitic magma include: (1) assimilation of garnet-bearing, possibly mafic lower continental crust by primary mantle-derived basaltic magmas; (2) fractionation of olivine + clinopyroxene + Ca-rich plagioclase + Fe-oxides in present non-modal proportions from basaltic magmas at ∼4–8 kbar to produce high-Al basalt and basaltic andesitic magmas; (3) vapor-undersaturated (i.e., P _H2O<P _TOTAL) partial melting of gabbroic crustal rocks at ∼3–7 kbar to produce dacitic magmas; (4) crystallization of plagioclase-rich phenocryst assemblages from dacitic magmas in shallow reservoirs; (5) intrusion of basaltic andesitic magmas into shallow reservoirs containing crystal-rich dacitic magmas and subsequent mixing to produce hybrid basaltic andesitic and andesitic magmas; and (6)␣formation and disaggregation of undercooled basaltic andesitic and andesitic inclusions during eruption from shallow chambers to form commingled, mafic inclusion-bearing andesitic and dacitic lavas flows. Collectively, the geochemical and petrographic features of the Guadal volcanic rocks are interpreted to reflect the development of shallow silicic reservoirs within a region characterized by high crustal temperatures due to focused basaltic activity and high magma supply rates. On the periphery of the silicic system where magma supply rates and crustal temperatures were lower, cooling and crystallization were more important than bulk crustal melting or assimilation. Received: 2 July 1997 / Accepted: 25 November 1997     

A diagnosis of rainfall over South America during 1997/98 El Niño and 1998/99 La Niña events: Comparison between TRMM PR and GPCP rainfall estimates

A comparison between TRMM PR rainfall estimates and rain gauge data from ANEEL and combined gauge/satellite data from GPCP over South America (SA) is made. In general, the annual and seasonal regional characteristics of rainfall over SA are qualitatively well reproduced by TRMM PR and GPCP. It is found that over most of SA GPCP exceeds TRMM PR rainfall. The largest positive differences between GPCP and TRMM PR data occur in the north SA, northwestern and central Amazonia. However, there are regions where GPCP rainfall is lower than TRMM PR, particularly in the Pacific coastal regions and in southern Brazil. We suggest that the cause for the positive differences GPCP minus TRMM PR rainfall are related to the fact that satellite observations based on infrared radiation and outgoing longwave radiance sensors overestimate convective rainfall in GPCP and the cause for the negative differences are due to the random errors in TRMM PR. Rainfall differences in the latter phases of the 1997/98 El Niño and 1998/99 La Niña are analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall anomalies are generally higher in GPCP than in TRMM PR, however, as in the mean annual case, there are regions where the rainfall in GPCP is lower than in TRMM PR. The higher positive (negative) differences between the rainfall anomalies in GPCP and TRMM PR, which occur in the central Amazonia (southern Brazil), are reduced (increased) in the El Niño event. This is due to the fact that during the El Niño episode the rainfall decreases in the central Amazonia and increases in the southern Brazil. Consequently, the overestimation of the convective rainfall by GPCP is reduced and the overestimation of the rainfall by TRMM PR is increased in these two regions, respectively.