Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.     

Wind profiles in the boundary layer over Kharagpur associated with synoptic scale systems

Doppler sodar wind data for the boundary layer over Kharagpur obtained during MONTBLEX-1990 at a height interval of 30 m from surface up to 1500 m have been analysed for the periods when intense synoptic scale disturbances from north Bay of Bengal moved along the eastern end of the monsoon trough. The variation in the vertical wind profile in the lower boundary layer over Kharagpur during the passage of synoptic scale disturbances has been discussed in the paper. The analysis indicates that the mean winds over Kharagpur veered with height in the lower boundary layer near the surface suggesting divergence over Kharagpur when the system lay south/southwest of the station. No such veering has been noticed when the centre of the system lay very close to the station.     

Planning MONTBLEX — An overview

The multi-institutional experiment MONTBLEX aimed at sensing and studying the atmospheric boundary layer over the monsoon trough region of the northern plains of India during the summer monsoon of 1990. Four core facilities consisting of micro-meteorological towers and state-of-the-art instrumentation were created along the trough axis. This overview emphasizes the key features of project planning, management and execution, and provides detail? of all the experimental observation sites.     

东亚地区区域气候模拟的研究进展

由于大气环流模式对东亚地区区域气候特征的模拟存在很大不足,采用区域气候模式模拟该地区特殊的季风气候成为目前发展的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过回顾当前东亚地区区域气候模拟的现状,表明大部分区域气候模式都不同程度地模拟出了东亚季风区持续性洪涝现象的大尺度环流特征和演变过程,再现了东亚各主要气候区降水的年际、季节和季节内变化及主要雨带的季节进退和降水的时空演变特征。但是,大部分模式没能很好地模拟出大尺度特征的强度和量值,模拟的温度和降水存在系统性偏差。原因分析表明,进一步完善和改进区域气候模式的物理过程参数化方案及动力框架可以改善模拟效果。最后对区域气候模式未来的发展给出展望。     

Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan using WRF-ARW model

Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan has been carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This extraordinary rainfall event was localized over north-west Pakistan and recorded 274 mm of rainfall at Peshawar (34.02°N, 71.58°E), within a span of 24 h on that eventful day where monthly July normal rainfall is only 46.1 mm. The WRF model was run with the triple-nested domains of 27, 9, and 3 km horizontal resolution using Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme having YSU planetary boundary layer. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different simulated parameters. The model-derived rainfall was compared with Pakistan Meteorological Department–observed rainfall. The model suggested that this flood producing heavy rainfall event over north-west region of Pakistan might be the result of an interaction of active monsoon flow with upper air westerly trough (mid-latitude). The north-west Pakistan was the meeting point of the southeasterly flow from the Bay of Bengal following monsoon trough and southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea which helped to transport high magnitude of moisture. The vertical profile of the humidity showed that moisture content was reached up to upper troposphere during their mature stage (monsoon system usually did not extent up to that level) like a narrow vertical column where high amounts of rainfall were recorded. The other favourable conditions were strong vertical wind shear, low-level convergence and upper level divergence, and strong vorticity field which demarked the area of heavy rainfall. The WRF model might be able to simulate the flood producing rainfall event over north-west Pakistan and associated dynamical features reasonably well, though there were some spatial and temporal biases in the simulated rainfall pattern.     

Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for simulating the Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event over India

In 2013, Indian summer monsoon witnessed a very heavy rainfall event (>30 cm/day) over Uttarakhand in north India, claiming more than 5000 lives and property damage worth approximately 40 billion USD. This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropical westerly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Although global models predicted the large scale event, they failed to predict realistic location, timing, amount, intensity and distribution of rainfall over the region. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in simulating this severe event using a high resolution mesoscale model. The land conditions such as multi-layer soil moisture and soil temperature fields were generated from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation (HRLDAS) modelling system. Two experiments were conducted namely, (1) CNTL (Control, without land data assimilation) and (2) LDAS, with land data assimilation (i.e., with HRLDAS-based soil moisture and temperature fields) using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Initial soil moisture correlation and root mean square error for LDAS is 0.73 and 0.05, whereas for CNTL it is 0.63 and 0.053 respectively, with a stronger heat low in LDAS. The differences in wind and moisture transport in LDAS favoured increased moisture transport from Arabian Sea through a convectively unstable region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The improvement in rainfall is significantly correlated to the persistent generation of potential vorticity (PV) in LDAS. Further, PV tendency analysis confirmed that the increased generation of PV is due to the enhanced horizontal PV advection component rather than the diabatic heating terms due to modified flow fields. These results suggest that, two different synoptic systems merged by the strong interaction of moving PV columns resulted in the strengthening and further amplification of the system over the region in LDAS. This study highlights the importance of better representation of the land surface fields for improved prediction of localized anomalous weather event over India.     

Genesis of the monsoon trough boundary layer experiment (MONTBLEX)

This paper sets out the motivation for carrying out an observational experiment on the atmospheric boundary layer along the monsoon trough, in the light of earlier studies of the atmospheric boundary layer in India and elsewhere, and the significant role that the trough has been shown to play as a key semi-permanent feature of the southwest monsoon. The scientific objectives of the experiment are set out, and its planning and execution are touched upon. Some of the gains resulting from the experiment are mentioned, and lessons for the future about the conduct of such programmes are drawn.     

Simulation of marine boundary layer characteristics using a 1-D PBL model over the Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-99

The characteristic features of the marine boundary layer (MBL) over the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon and the factors influencing it are investigated. The Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) carried out during July–August 1999 is the first observational experiment under the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP). A very high-resolution data in the vertical was obtained during this experiment, which was used to study the MBL characteristics off the east coast of India in the north and south Bay of Bengal. Spells of active and suppressed convection over the Bay were observed, of which, three representative convective episodes were considered for the study. For this purpose a one-dimensional multi-level PBL model with a TKE-ε closure scheme was used. The soundings, viz., the vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, zonal and meridional component of wind, obtained onboard ORV Sagar Kanya and from coastal stations along the east coast are used for the study. The temporal evolution of turbulent kinetic energy, marine boundary layer height (MBLH), sensible and latent heat fluxes and drag coefficient of momentum are simulated for different epochs of monsoon and monsoon depressions during BOBMEX-99.The model also generates the vertical profiles of potential temperature, specific humidity, zonal and meridional wind. These simulated values compared reasonably well with the observations available from BOBMEX.     

Identification of a surface layer structure and analysis of humidity data in two weather situations at Jodhpur (26°18′N, 73°04′E), India,during MONTBLEX 1990

The Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment held in 1990 was a multi-institutional effort to probe the atmospheric boundary layer over the monsoon trough over northern India. For this experiment, four micrometeorological towers were set up at four different locations along the normal position of the trough. One such tower of 30m height was located at Jodhpur (26‡18′N, 73‡04′E), Rajasthan. The fast and slow response data available during the experiment have been used in the present study to determine a suitable layer-structure of the surface layer for evaluation of sensible heat flux using the multilayer hypothesis of Kramm (1989).     

Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.     

The effect of a surface data assimilation technique and the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation on the simulation of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a surface data assimilation (SDA) technique, together with the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), on the simulation of a monsoon depression that formed over India during the field phase of the 1999 Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The SDA uses the analyzed surface data to continuously assimilate the surface layer temperature as well as the water vapor mixing ratio in the mesoscale model. The depression for the greater part of this study was offshore and since successful application of the SDA would require surface information, a method of estimating surface temperature and surface humidity using NOAA-TOVS satellites was used. Three sets of numerical experiments were performed using a coupled mesoscale model. The first set, called CONTROL, uses the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis for the initial and lateral boundary conditions in the MM5 simulation. The second and the third sets implemented the SDA of temperature and moisture together with the traditional FDDA scheme available in the MM5 model. The second set of MM5 simulation implemented the SDA scheme only over the land areas, and the third set extended the SDA technique over land as well as sea. Both the second and third sets of the MM5 simulation used the NOAA-TOVS and QuikSCAT satellite and conventional upper air and surface meteorological data to provide an improved analysis. The results of the three sets of MM5 simulations are compared with one another and with the analysis and the BOBMEX 1999 buoy, ship, and radiosonde observations. The predicted sea level pressure of both the model runs with assimilation resembles the analysis closely and also captures the large-scale structure of the monsoon depression well. The central sea level pressures of the depression for both the model runs with assimilation were 2–4 hPa lower than the CONTROL. The results of both the model runs with assimilation indicate a larger spatial area as well as increased rainfall amounts over the coastal regions after landfall compared with the CONTROL. The impact of FDDA and SDA, the latter over land, resulted in reduced errors of the following: 1.45 K in temperature, 0.39 m s⁻¹ in wind speed, and 14° in wind direction compared with the BOBMEX buoy observation, and 1.43 m s⁻¹ in wind speed, 43° in wind direction, and 0.75% in relative humidity compared with the CONTROL. The impact of SDA over land and sea compared with SDA over land only showed a further marginal reduction of errors: 0.23 K in air temperature (BOBMEX buoy) and 1.33 m s⁻¹ in wind speed simulations.     

Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to low pressure systems

The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS) developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough. A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rain-fall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September). For this purpose, rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999) are analysed. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over the period of 1980-1999. The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by about 5%) during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa. Most parts of Orissa, especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone) and western side of the Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa. The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay. While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay, Jharkhand and Bangladesh, that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa. There are significant decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during June and decreasing trends in rainy days over some parts of north interior Orissa and central part of coastal Orissa during July over the period of 1980-1999     

Doppler SODAR observations of the temperature structure parameter during monsoon season over a tropical rural station,Gadanki

Doppler SODAR (Sound Detection and Ranging) measurements over a tropical Indian station at National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during two consecutive monsoon seasons, 2007 and 2008, are investigated to study the influence of mechanically generated turbulence on temperature structure parameter (C_T²)_{\rm T}^{2}) in the convective boundary layer. Increase in the C_T²_{\rm T}^{2} is observed after the arrival of monsoon for both seasons. Contribution of vertical wind shear in horizontal wind component to C_T²_{\rm T}^{2} due to zonal winds is responsible for the increase observed in the temperature structure parameter which is inferred from the results obtained. C_T²_{\rm T}^{2} is found to be increased by an order of 2 in both the lower and upper altitudes, respectively. Magnitude of wind speed is reported to be doubled with the arrival of monsoon. It is also observed that, southwest monsoon wind modulates the day-to-day variations of wind pattern over this station during the onset phase of monsoon season. The lower variability observed at lower height is attributed to the complex topography surrounding this region.     

The mean and turbulence structure simulation of the monsoon trough boundary layer using a one-dimensional model withe-l ande-ε closures

An attempt has been made here to study the sensitivity of the mean and the turbulence structure of the monsoon trough boundary layer to the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation for two stations Delhi and Calcutta, using one-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer model withe-ε turbulence closure. An analytical discussion of the problems associated with the constants of the dissipation equation is presented. It is shown here that the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation is quite crucial and the turbulence structure is very sensitive to these constants. The modification of the dissipation equation adopted by earlier studies, that is, approximating the Tke generation (due to shear and buoyancy production) in theε-equation by max (shear production, shear + buoyancy production), can be avoided by a suitable choice of the constants suggested here. The observed turbulence structure is better simulated with these constants. The turbulence structure simulation with the constants recommended by Aupoixet al (1989) (which are interactive in time) for the monsoon region is shown to be qualitatively similar to the simulation obtained with the constants suggested here, thus implying that no universal constants exist to regulate dissipation rate. Simulations of the mean structure show little sensitivity to the type of the closure parameterization betweene-l ande-ε closures. However the turbulence structure simulation withe-ε. closure is far better compared to thee-l model simulations. The model simulations of temperature profiles compare quite well with the observations whenever the boundary layer is well mixed (neutral) or unstable. However the models are not able to simulate the nocturnal boundary layer (stable) temperature profiles. Moisture profiles are simulated reasonably better. With one-dimensional models, capturing observed wind variations is not up to the mark.     

Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010

Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management.     

Circulation and water masses of the Arabian Sea

The dynamics and thermodynamics of the surface layer of the Arabian Sea, north of about 10N, are dominated by the monsoon-related annual cycle of air-sea fluxes of momentum and heat. The currents in open-sea regime of this layer can be largely accounted for by Ekman drift and the thermal field is dominated by local heat fluxes. The geostrophic currents in open-sea subsurface regime also show a seasonal cycle and there is some evidence that signatures of this cycle appear as deep as 1000 m. The forcing due to Ekman suction is an important mechanism for the geostrophic currents in the central and western parts of the Sea. Recent studies suggest that the eastern part is strongly influenced by the Rossby waves radiated by the Kelvin waves propagating along the west coast of India. The circulation in the coastal region off Oman is driven mainly by local winds and there is no remotely driven western boundary current. Local wind-driving is also important to the coastal circulation off western India during the southwest monsoon but not during the northeast monsoon when a strong (approximately 7 × 10⁶m³/sec) current moves poleward against weak winds. This current is driven by a pressure gradient which forms along this coast during the northeast monsoon due to either thermohaline-forcing or due to the arrival of Kelvin waves from the Bay of Bengal. The present speculation about flow of bottom water (deeper than about 3500 m) in the Arabian Sea is that it moves northward and upwells into the layer of North Indian Deep Water (approximately 1500–3500m). It is further speculated that the flow in this layer consists of a poleward western boundary current and a weak equatorward flow in the interior. It is not known if there is an annual cycle associated with the deep and the bottom water circulation.     

The monsoon system: Land–sea breeze or the ITCZ?

For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land–sea breeze driven by the land–ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford’s (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.     

Relative role of sea surface temperature and snow on Indian summer monsoon seasonal simulation using a GCM

Indian summer monsoon is a global scale phenomenon controlled by different land, ocean, and atmospheric parameters. Sea surface temperature (SST) and snow are two of the major parameters, which may alter the spatial and temporal patterns of circulation and rainfall during Indian summer monsoon. In the current paper, we study the monsoon variability using long integrations (20 years) of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD) Spectral model at T80L18 resolution with observed and climatological SST and snow. Study shows response of IITD GCM in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation relative to the snow and SST as boundary conditions. The model’s response to SST and snow is examined by conducting four types of experiments by varying observed and climatological values of snow and SST. This paper discusses the seasonal total rainfall for country as a whole and 850 and 200 hPa wind for the period of 20 years starting from 1985 to 2004. The model has been integrated in the ensemble mode with five different initial conditions from the last week of April and first week of May. The model is able to capture the climatological patterns of seasonal total rainfall and averaged wind at lower and upper levels. Observed snow in the presence of climatological SST as a boundary condition shows much impact on rainfall and circulation than observed SST in the presence of climatological snow. Model performance is good in simulating the normal and excess monsoon conditions; it shows poor skill in capturing deficit monsoon years.     

Impact of physical parameterization schemes on numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu

The objective of this study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Three sets of sensitivity experiments (totally 11 experiments) are conducted to examine the impact of each of the aforementioned parameterization schemes on the storm’s track and intensity forecast. Convective parameterization schemes (CPS) include Grell (Gr), Betts–Miller (BM) and updated Kain–Fritsch (KF2); planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes include Burk–Thompson (BT), Eta Mellor–Yamada (MY) and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF); and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) comprise Warm Rain (WR), Simple Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). The model configuration for CPS and PBL experiments includes two nested domains (90- and 30-km resolution), and for MPS experiments includes three nested domains (90-, 30- and 10-km grid resolution). It is found that the forecast track and intensity of the cyclone are most sensitive to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). The simulated cyclone with Gr scheme has the least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering flow of the cyclone is evident. It appears that combined effect of midlatitude trough interaction, strength of the anticyclone and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast of the cyclone. The PBL group of experiments has less influence on the track forecast of the cyclone compared to CPS. However, we do note a considerable variation in intensity forecast due to variations in PBL schemes. The MY scheme produced reasonably better forecast within the group with a sustained warm core and better surface wind fields. Finally, results from MPS set of experiments demonstrate that explicit moisture schemes have profound impact on cyclone intensity and moderate impact on cyclone track forecast. The storm produced from WR scheme is the most intensive in the group and closer to the observed strength. The possible reason attributed for this intensification is the combined effect of reduction in cooling tendencies within the storm core due to the absence of melting process and reduction of water loading in the model due to absence of frozen hydrometeors in the WR scheme. We also note a good correlation between evolution of frozen condensate and storm intensification rate among these experiments. It appears that the Sc scheme has some systematic bias and because of that we note a substantial reduction in the rain water formation in the simulated storm when compared to others within the group. In general, it is noted that all the sensitivity experiments have a tendency to unrealistically intensify the storm at the later part of the integration phase.     

Impact of Doppler weather radar data on thunderstorm simulation during STORM pilot phase—2009

This study assesses the impact of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data (reflectivity and radial wind) assimilation on the simulation of severe thunderstorms (STS) events over the Indian monsoon region. Two different events that occurred during the Severe Thunderstorms Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) pilot phase in 2009 were simulated. Numerical experiments—3DV (assimilation of DWR observations) and CNTL (without data assimilation)—were conducted using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The results show that consistent with prior studies the 3DV experiment, initialized by assimilation of DWR observations, performed better than the CNTL experiment over the Indian region. The enhanced performance was a result of improved representation and simulation of wind and moisture fields in the boundary layer at the initial time in the model. Assimilating DWR data caused higher moisture incursion and increased instability, which led to stronger convective activity in the simulations. Overall, the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the two thunderstorms were consistently better simulated after ingesting DWR data, as compared to the CNTL simulation. In the 3DV experiment, higher instability was observed in the analyses of thermodynamic indices and equivalent potential temperature (θ _e) fields. Maximum convergence during the mature stage was also noted, consistent with maximum vertical velocities in the assimilation experiment (3DV). In addition, simulated hydrometeor (water vapor mixing ratio, cloud water mixing ratio, and rain water mixing ratio) structures improved with the 3DV experiment, compared to that of CNTL. From the higher equitable threat scores, it is evident that the assimilation of DWR data enhanced the skill in rainfall prediction associated with the STS over the Indian monsoon region. These results add to the body of evidence now which provide consistent and notable improvements in the mesoscale model results over the Indian monsoon region after assimilating DWR fields.