低平流层涡动热通量近似的最佳参考纬度

通常基于准地转的变换的欧拉平均框架下提出的涡动热通量近似理论计算极区平流层温度变化的动力和非绝热加热贡献,但是这可能会带来一定的误差。本文根据Liu and Fu(2019)提出的欧拉平均框架下新形式的面积加权平均的热力学能量方程,通过滑动累加得到逐月的温度变化方程。再利用1980-2019年欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料(EuropeanCentreforMedium-range Weather Forecasts fifth reanalysis data, ERA5),计算北半球极区低平流层100 hPa在全时段(1980-2019年)和两个分时段(1980-1999年、 2000-2019年)各月温度增量、动力加热、非绝热加热和对流加热项(W项)的气候平均值,进而讨论涡动热通量近似理论成立的最佳参考纬度。结果表明,新导出的W项使得极区累积的动力和非绝热加热项之和与温度增量项之间的误差在冬春季减少了一半。在100 hPa上,W项随月份和纬度变化,尤其在冬春季节对温度变化贡献明显,由此得到涡动热通量近似成立的最佳参考纬度应该在W项的零等值线附近。进一步验证表明参考纬度可以取在...     

春夏季节转换前北亚平稳增温过程的热力学特征

本文利用1958～2019年日本气象厅逐日再分析资料（JRA-55）,基于热力学方程,详细研究了北亚地区春夏季节转换前（第19至28候）平稳增温过程的热力学特征。结果表明,气候温度平流和非绝热加热有相反的变化趋势,它们先后主导着北亚春夏季节转换前的温度变化。在第22候之前,绝热的气候温度平流主导着北亚地区的增暖过程。但随着欧亚大陆中高纬度上的非绝热加热逐步增强,气候温度平流逐渐变为冷平流,使得非绝热加热成为主导项。线性斜压模式结果表明,非绝热加热除直接加热局地大气外,它还会在北亚地区强迫出气旋式环流异常和上升运动,从而引导着原位于新地岛附近的低压系统向北亚地区移动,进而在水平和垂直方向上引起绝热的冷平流。该冷平流部分抵消了非绝热的加热作用,最终在北亚地区形成平稳的增温过程。     

北极平流层冬季早期变暖的GCM模拟研究

观测表明北极平流层自20世纪70年代末以来在冬季早期 (11～12月) 存在变暖的趋势。为了验证该趋势是否是由于海面温度 (SST) 升高造成的, 我们使用观测的全球SST强迫一个全球大气环流模式 (AGCM)。集合模拟的结果表明, 在SST强迫下, 北极平流层呈现统计显著的变暖趋势, 极地对流层也有相对较弱的变暖趋势, 但统计显著性较低。通过对模拟的位势高度进行经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析, 我们发现北半球位势高度第一模态 (EOF1) 的空间结构非常类似于北极涛动 (AO) 或北半球环状模 (NAM), 其平流层主分量时间序列在冬季早期呈现统计显著的负趋势。与负的AO趋势相对应的是, 对流层高纬度和平流层中高纬度波动增强, 说明极区变暖是由于波动增强产生的极区绝热加热增强造成的。另外, 模拟的结果还表明北极平流层不仅在冬季早期出现变暖的趋势, 在冬季晚期 (2～3月) 北极平流层低层也出现弱的变暖趋势。SST强迫导致北极平流层冬季变暖不利于异相臭氧化学反应的发生, 这对极地平流层臭氧恢复有着重要意义。     

热带加热异常影响冬季平流层极涡强度的数值模拟

本文利用大气环流模式SAMIL/LASG,通过选择两种对流参数化方案,研究了热带加热异常对热带外平流层模拟的影响。结果表明,因不同对流参数化方案引起的热带对流加热状况的差异,可显著影响模式对北半球冬季平流层极涡强度的模拟偏差。与采用Manabe对流参数化方案相比,采用Tiedtke参数化方案可以显著改善对平流层极涡强度的模拟,使平流层极涡“过强”及极区“过冷”的模拟偏差得到明显改善。研究其中的影响过程发现,由于Manabe方案最大凝结潜热加热高度过低,在对流层中低层;而Tiedtke方案的最大凝结潜热加热位置在对流层中上层,因而Tiedtke(Manabe)方案时热带大气温度在对流层中上层较为偏暖(偏冷),在平流层低层较为偏冷(偏暖)。自秋季开始,与热带对流层高层温度的暖偏差相联系,热带外对流层高层以及热带平流层低层出现伴随的温度冷偏差;与之对应,平流层中纬度从秋季开始也出现持续的温度暖偏差。另外,随着秋冬季节平流层行星波活动的出现,Tiedtke方案时热带外地区行星波1波的强度也明显强于Manabe方案,使得秋冬季节涡动引起的向极热通量在Tiedtke方案时明显偏强,从而造成了冬季平流层极区温度偏暖、极涡强度偏弱。     

非绝热加热对锋面次级环流的影响

通过考虑非绝热加热项和摩擦项的原始方程组，取沿锋面方向地转近似，导出一个描写定常锋面次级环流的方程，研究对流加热（ＣＩＳＫ）对锋面次级环流的作用。结果表明；非绝热加热能加强锋生过程，加强锋面环流，使环流宽度变窄，陡度加大。从而从理论上对锋面过程的降水不均匀性给出解释。     

北半球冬季平流层温度和Brewer-Dobson环流对11 a太阳循环的响应

采用北京气候中心大气辐射模式(BCC-RAD)、日本气象厅JRA-55月平均再分析资料,研究了北半球冬季低纬度平流层上、下两个温度异常区对太阳周期的响应及其机制。结果表明,太阳活动偏强年,低纬度的上平流层温度暖异常是由臭氧短波加热异常引起的,它在中纬度的上平流层激发出异常强西风,阻碍行星波正常上传,由波破碎驱动的Brewer-Dobson环流也减弱,该环流上升支减弱的动力加热作用导致了低纬度的下平流层暖异常。     

位涡倾向在Muifa台风路径转折中的应用

利用ECMWF资料诊断分析了位涡倾向方程中的水平平流项和非绝热加热项分别在Muifa台风两次路径转折中的作用。结果表明:第一次路径转折过程中,非绝热加热项的量级比水平平流项小一个量级,水平平流项所表征的外部大尺度环流因素是第一次路径转折的主要原因;第二次路径转向过程由水平平流项和非绝热加热项共同控制,其中水平平流项控制台风的移向,非绝热加热项表征的内部非对称结构对台风转向有抑制作用。     

1979年以来南极平流层冬季变暖

极地气候比其他区域有着更为显著的变化,这不仅反映在极地近地面和对流层,也同样反映在平流层。使用NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE和ERA40月平均再分析资料,研究了南极平流层温度和位势高度的年代际变化趋势。结果表明,自1979年以来在冬季南极平流层存在变暖的趋势。分析NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE再分析资料的结果是变暖主要出现在7—10月,最大增温位于30hPa,27a(1979—2005年)的最大增温幅度超过7℃。分析ERA40的结果是变暖主要出现在6—9月,较NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE早1个月,最大增温位于平流层上层(5和3hPa),23a(1979—2001年)的最大增温幅度超过10℃。在平流层高层,最大增温位于极区中心;在平流层中低层,最大增温位于极区外围偏向澳大利亚一侧。伴随着温度的升高,南极平流层的位势高度也存在升高的趋势。在NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE再分析资料中,最大位势高度升高位于10hPa,27a里的升高幅度超过450m。ERA40给出的结果相对弱一些,23a里的最大升高幅度接近300m。进一步的计算结果表明,进入南半球平流层的波动通量也有增加的趋势,可能是平流层波动增强导致了向南极的残余环流增强,与之相关的极圈内下沉运动也随之增强,下沉运动产生绝热加热,从而造成南极平流层增温和位势高度升高。     

青藏高原地表非绝热加热模态及其与中国北方环流异常的联系

利用青藏高原非均匀下垫面热力输送系数及地表有效辐射的EOF分析结果,计算了2000年以来的高原地表非绝热加热资料,并将1958—2013年地表非绝热加热资料进行重建得到高原地表非绝热加热指数,以表征高原不同气候分区的地表热力状况。根据EOF分析结果将高原分为4个气候区,并从波能传播的角度分析其对中国北方环流异常的影响。结果表明,高原地表非绝热加热指数在西部边缘(气候Ⅰ区),除了冬季为微弱下降趋势以外,其他季节都为微弱的上升趋势;在高原中西部腹地(气候Ⅱ区),四季均为下降趋势;在高原东北部(气候Ⅲ区),除了冬季表现为微弱的下降趋势外,其他季节均为微弱的上升趋势;而在高原东南部(气候Ⅳ区),四季均表现为下降趋势。高原西部边缘地表非绝热加热异常增强时,高原200 h Pa上空为波能辐散区,并向东传播,初夏在北方辐合加强,有利于降水,干旱减弱;盛夏在北方地区处于辐散区,加剧干旱。在高原东北部地表非绝热加热异常增强时,该区200 h Pa上空为波能辐散区,并向东传播,无论是在初夏还是盛夏,除了东北地区北部,北方其他地区辐合加强,有助于干旱减弱。     

地形追随垂直运动方程在南疆极端暴雨中的诊断分析

针对2021年6月15～17日发生在昆仑山脉北坡的南疆极端暴雨过程,本文综合考虑地形对暴雨发生、发展的作用后,利用地形追随坐标控制方程并采用Boussinesq近似推导建立了地形追随坐标的非静力平衡广义垂直运动方程。诊断结果表明,经向气压梯度力耦合经向散度项（项一）、垂直气压梯度力耦合纬向散度项（项二）和非绝热加热经向梯度项（项三）是激发暴雨垂直运动发展演变的三个主要强迫项。项一体现了偏北风逐渐增强,在昆仑山脉的阻挡下导致经向辐合增强,触发了垂直上升运动。经向气流辐合始终是对流活动最主要的强迫过程,其次为纬向气流辐合。在地形追随坐标形式下,经向和垂直气压梯度能够增强项一和项二。对流发展阶段,水汽辐合与非绝热加热过程增强了非绝热加热经向梯度,促进了垂直上升运动发展。在地形的影响下,对流层中高层西风过山气流波动特征明显。重力波活动导致的高层辐散进一步促进了山脉迎风坡对流活动。经向和纬向气流辐合、非绝热加热过程以及重力波活动等多个因素共同造成了此次南疆极端暴雨。     

Simulation of the Effect of Water-vapor Increase on Temperature in the Stratosphere

To analyze the mechanism by which water vapor increase leads to cooling in the stratosphere, the effects of water-vapor increases on temperature in the stratosphere were simulated using the two-dimensional, interactive chemical dynamical radiative model (SOCRATES) of NCAR. The results indicate that increases in stratospheric water vapor lead to stratospheric cooling, with the extent of cooling increasing with height, and that cooling in the middle stratosphere is stronger in Arctic regions. Analysis of the radiation process showed that infrared radiative cooling by water vapor is a pivotal factor in middle-lower stratospheric cooling. However, in the upper stratosphere (above 45 km), infrared radiation is not a factor in cooling; there, cooling is caused by the decreased solar radiative heating rate resulting from ozone decrease due to increased stratospheric water vapor. Dynamical cooling is important in the middle-upper stratosphere, and dynamical feedback to temperature change is more distinct in the Northern Hemisphere middle-high latitudes than in other regions and signiffcantly affects temperature and ozone in winter over Arctic regions. Increasing stratospheric water vapor will strengthen ozone depletion through the chemical process. However, ozone will increase in the middle stratosphere. The change in ozone due to increasing water vapor has an important effect on the stratospheric temperature change.     

Involvement of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in changes of stratospheric temperature and ozone

Wintertime temperature and ozone in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere vary significantly between years. Largely random, those variations are marked by compensating changes at high and low latitudes, a feature that reflects the residual mean circulation of the stratosphere. Interannual changes of temperature and ozone each track anomalous forcing of the residual circulation. This relationship is shown to be obeyed even over the Arctic, where transport is augmented by heterogeneous chemical processes that destroy ozone. Chlorine activation obeys a similar relationship, reflecting feedback between changes of the residual circulation and anomalous photochemistry.Changes of stratospheric dynamical and chemical structure are found be accompanied by coherent changes in the troposphere. Vertically extensive, they reflect inter-dependent changes in the stratosphere and troposphere, which are coupled by the residual circulation through transfers of mass. The corresponding structure is shown to share major features with empirical modes of interannual variability associated with the AO and its cousin, the NAO.A 3D model of dynamics and photochemistry is used to simulate anomalous temperature and ozone. Driven by anomalous wave activity representative of that observed, the model reproduces the salient structure of observed interannual changes. Anomalous temperature and ozone follow in the integrations from anomalous downwelling, which, under disturbed conditions, renders temperature over the Arctic anomalously warm, and from anomalous poleward transport, which renders Arctic ozone anomalously rich.Accompanying random interannual changes in the observed record was a systematic decline of Northern Hemisphere temperature and ozone during the 1980s and early 1990s. Comprising decadal trends, these systematic changes are shown to have the same essential structure and seasonality as random changes, which, in turn, vary coherently with anomalous forcing of the residual circulation. Implications of the findings to the interpretation of stratospheric trends are discussed in light of anomalous residual motion, photochemistry, and feedback between them.     

Transient Characteristics of Residual Meridional Circulation during Stratospheric Sudden Warming

The residual meridional circulation derived from the transformed Eulerian-mean thermodynamic equation and continuity equation can be separated into two parts,the slowly varying diabatic circulation and the transient circulation,as demonstrated by others.We calculated and composite-analyzed the transient and diabatic circulation for 14 stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events from 1979-2002 by using the daily ECMWF reanalysis data.Specifically,the transient residual meridional circulation was calculated both with and without inclusion of the eddy heat transport term in the transformed Eulerian-mean thermodynamic equation to investigate the importance of the eddy heat transport term.The results showed that calculations of transient residual meridional circulation present rapid variations during SSWs,with or without inclusion of the eddy heat transport term.Although the patterns of transient residual meridional circulation with the eddy heat transport term were similar to that without the eddy heat transport term during SSW,the magnitudes in the upper stratosphere and high-latitude regions differed.As for the diabatic circulation,its daily variations were small during SSW events,and its patterns were in agreement with its monthly average.     

Aspects of stratospheric long-term changes induced by ozone depletion

The effect of the stratospheric ozone depletion on the thermal and dynamical structure of the middle atmosphere is assessed using two 5-member ensembles of transient GCM simulations; one including linear trends in ozone, the other not, for the 1980–1999 period. Simulated temperatures and observations are in good agreement in terms of mean values, autocorrelations and cross correlations. Annual-mean and seasonal temperature trends have been calculated using the same statistical analysis. Simulations show that ozone trends are responsible for reduced wave activity in the Arctic lower stratosphere in February and March, confirming both the role of dynamics in controlling March temperatures and a recently proposed mechanism whereby Arctic ozone depletion causes the reduction in wave activity entering the lower stratosphere. Changes in wave activity are consistent with an intensification of the polar vortex at the time of ozone depletion and with a weakened Brewer–Dobson circulation: A decrease of the dynamical warming/cooling associated with the descending/ascending branch of the wintertime mean residual circulation at high/low latitudes has been obtained through the analysis of temperature observations (1980–1999). Ozone is responsible of about one third of the decrease of this dynamical cooling at high latitudes. An increase in the residual mean circulation is seen in the observations for the 1965–1980 period.     

Link between Arctic ozone and the stratospheric polar vortex

The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on earth by preventing solar ultraviolet radiation from reaching the surface. Owing to the large population in the Northern Hemisphere and extreme ozone loss in the Arctic, changes in Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and their causes have attracted broad attention recently. Using monthly mean data during the period 1980–2020 from MERRA-2, the relationship between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and ASO, along with the relative contributions of chemical and dynamic processes associated with the SPV to changes in ASO, were examined in this study. Results showed that the ASO in March has a strong out-of-phase link with the strength of the SPV in March, with no obvious lead–lag correlations, i.e., an increase (decrease) in ASO corresponds to a weakened (strengthened) SPV. Further analysis suggested that the strong out-of-phase link between the SPV and ASO is related to changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). Strong SPV events, accompanied by a low temperature condition and weakened upward propagation of planetary waves over the Arctic in the stratosphere, result in weakened BDC. The weakened downwelling at high latitudes tends to transport less ozone-rich air in the upper stratosphere at lower latitudes into the lower stratosphere at high latitudes, facilitating a decrease in ASO. The BDC's vertical velocity plays the dominant role in modulating ASO.摘要利用1980–2020年MERRA-2资料, 分析了平流层极涡 (Stratospheric polar vortex, SPV) 和北极臭氧 (Arctic stratospheric ozone, ASO) 的关系, 评估了与SPV相关的化学, 动力过程在其中的相对作用. 结果表明, 3月份ASO与同期SPV强度反相关最大. SPV-ASO二者反相关与平流层剩余环流 (Brewer-Dobson circulation, BDC) 变化密切相关. 强SPV伴随的北极平流层低温条件和行星波向上传播减弱, 导致BDC减弱, 减弱的BDC下沉支将低纬度平流层上层臭氧含量较低的空气输送到北极平流层低层, 从而导致ASO减少. BDC垂直速度在其中起主导作用.     

基于DART +WACCM模式搭建的平流层同化、天气预报和气候预测模型研究

本论文基于WACCM（Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model）模式最新版本WACCM6和DART（Data Assimilation Research TestBed）同化工具最新版本Manhattan,开发了中高层大气温度、臭氧和水汽卫星资料的同化接口,搭建了一个包含完整平流层过程的数值同化、天气预报和短期气候预测模型（此后简称模型）;本模型对2020年3～4月平流层大气变化进行了同化观测资料的模拟,并以同化试验输出的分析场作为初值,对5～6月的平流层大气进行了0～30天天气尺度预报以及31～60天短期气候尺度预测的回报试验。结果表明:本模型能较好地重现2020年3、4月北极平流层出现的大规模臭氧损耗事件随时间的演变特征,模拟结果和Microwave Limb Sounder（MLS）卫星观测结果很接近;而未进行同化的模拟试验,虽然可以模拟出北极臭氧损耗现象,但是模拟的臭氧损耗规模相比MLS卫星观测结果要低很多;利用同化试验4月末输出的分析场作为初值,预报的5月北极平流层臭氧体积混合比变化与MLS卫星观测值的差值小于0.5,预测的6月北极平流层臭氧变化只在10～30 hPa之间的区域,与观测之间的差异达到了1 ppm（ppm=10?6）。本模型不但改善了北极平流层化学成分变化的模拟,也显著地提升了北极平流层温度和环流的模拟。本模型同化模拟的3～4月、预报预测的5～6月北极平流层温度和纬向风变化与Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 （MERRA2）再分析资料结果具有很好的一致性,仅在北极平流层顶部,预报预测的温度和纬向风分别与再分析资料之间的均方根误差（RMSE）约为3 K和4 m s?1。未进行同化的试验模拟的3～4月、预报预测的5～6月北极平流层的温度和纬向风与MERRA2再分析资料之间的RMSE在大部分区域都达到6 K及5 m s?1以上。从全球范围来看,本模型对平流层中低层模拟性能改善最为显著,其预报预测结果与观测值之间的差异,比未进行同化试验的结果,减少了50%以上。     

An update on dynamical changes in the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices

Dynamical changes in the Arctic and Antarctic lower stratosphere from autumn to spring were analysed using the NCEP/NCAR, ERA40 and FUB stratospheric analyses for three periods: 1979–1999, 1979–2005, and 1965–2005. We found a weakening of the Arctic vortex in winter and a strengthening in spring between 1979/1980 and 1998/1999, with corresponding changes in the zonal mean circulation. The vortex formed earlier in autumn and broke down later in spring. These changes however were statistically not significant due to the high interannual dynamical variability in northern hemisphere (NH) winter and spring and the relatively short time series. In the Antarctic, the vortex formed earlier in autumn, intensified in late spring, and broke down later. The changes of the Antarctic vortex were at all levels and for both autumn and spring transitions larger and more significant than the changes of the Arctic vortex. These changes of the 1980s and early to mid 1990s were however not representative of a long-term change. The dynamically more active winters in the Arctic and Antarctic since 1998/1999 led to an enhanced weakening of the polar vortex in winter, and to a reduction of the polar vortex intensification in spring. As two of the recent Arctic major warmings occurred rather early in winter the polar vortex could recover in late winter and the delay in spring breakdown further increased. In contrast, the increase in Antarctic vortex persistence did no longer appear when including the recent winters due to the dominant impact of the three recent dynamically active Antarctic winters in 2000, 2002, and 2004. The long-term changes of 1965/1966–2005 were smaller in amplitude and partly opposite to the trends since the 1980s. There is no significant long-term change in the Arctic vortex lifetime or spring persistence, while the Antarctic vortex shows a long-term deepening and shift towards later spring transitions. The changes in the stratospheric dynamical situation could be attributed in both hemispheres to changes in the dynamical forcing from the troposphere.     

厄尔尼诺年和反厄尔尼诺年北半球500hPa非绝热热流量场的特征

本文应用谱方法,诊断、计算了1964—1985年间,6个厄尔尼诺年和6个反厄尔尼诺年北半球月、季大气非绝热热流量距平场。结果表明:厄尔尼诺现象对大气非绝热热流量距平场具有显著影响,大气的响应表现为低纬和中高纬非绝热热流量正负距平中心有组织的优势排列,其位相或强度存在低频振荡,并且差值中心表现为双月周期。反厄尔尼诺年,大气具有分布不变,但距平中心基本上为反位相的响应形式。最后,通过海气相关分析,指出了海温异常是决定大气非绝热热流量异常的最重要的原因。     

Diagnosis of the forcing of inertial-gravity waves in a severe convection system

The non-hydrostatic wave equation set in Cartesian coordinates is rearranged to gain insight into wave generation in a mesoscale severe convection system. The wave equation is characterized by a wave operator on the lhs, and forcing involving three terms—linear and nonlinear terms, and diabatic heating—on the rhs. The equation was applied to a case of severe convection that occurred in East China. The calculation with simulation data showed that the diabatic forcing and linear and nonlinear forcing presented large magnitude at different altitudes in the severe convection region. Further analysis revealed the diabatic forcing due to condensational latent heating had an important influence on the generation of gravity waves in the middle and lower levels. The linear forcing resulting from the Laplacian of potential-temperature linear forcing was dominant in the middle and upper levels. The nonlinear forcing was determined by the Laplacian of potential-temperature nonlinear forcing. Therefore, the forcing of gravity waves was closely associated with the thermodynamic processes in the severe convection case. The reason may be that, besides the vertical component of pressure gradient force, the vertical oscillation of atmospheric particles was dominated by the buoyancy for inertial gravity waves. The latent heating and potential-temperature linear and nonlinear forcing played an important role in the buoyancy tendency. Consequently, these thermodynamic elements influenced the evolution of inertial-gravity waves.