On the Components of Indigenous Population Change

The 2001 census count of Indigenous Australians produced an intercensal change in numbers that cannot be explained by demographic processes alone. Using census and vital registration data, this paper unravels the components of such change and provides new insight into Indigenous population dynamics. In particular, it establishes the first estimates of proximate determinants of fertility, and extends mortality analysis by examining the components of low Indigenous life expectancy. Results show that demographic factors account for only 69 per cent of population change. Of these components, national Indigenous fertility is found to be below replacement level, while lack of convergence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous mortality remains. As Indigenous socio-economic circumstances are spatially diverse, the paper also explores the geography of demographic processes using data for 36 ATSIC regions and capital city/balance of State classifications. This reveals continued high fertility across parts of north Australia and an indication that mortality levels are associated with degree of urban residence.     

Population futures in the Australian desert, 2001–16

Population estimates are rarely constructed for ecological regions. The recent establishment of a Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) generates a need for such estimates. This paper obliges by presenting Indigenous and total population projections for the Australian desert to 2016. The desert is found to be a region of relatively low population growth in national terms, contrary to the experience of many other parts of non-metropolitan Australia where population decline is prevalent. Also noted is the markedly different growth observed for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous components of the desert population, with the former projected to increase much more rapidly over time. It is likely that virtually all of the increase in the desert population over the next 15 years will arise from natural increase among Indigenous peoples. As a consequence, the Indigenous share of the regional population is projected to rise from 20 per cent in 2001 to 24 per cent by 2016, with attendant consequences for social and economic policy.     

The Social Geographies of Indigenous Population and Housing in Australia's Regional Urban Centres

In recent years, social scientists have turned increasing scholarly focus to the ‘post-colonial city’, as it relates to the lived experiences and socio-cultural worlds of urban-dwelling Indigenous peoples. In Australia, this literature is concerned primarily with issues of identity, power and representation in big cities. More conventional geographic analyses regarding socio-spatial, economic and demographic aspects of urban Indigenous experience have been mostly absent from this discourse. In this paper, we begin to address this gap within the literature by identifying notable socio-spatial, economic, and demographic features of urban Indigenous experience in regional Australian cities. We draw on census and administrative data to empirically examine Indigenous residency, presence, and uneven housing market access in regional urban centres. The analysis builds a national comparative picture regarding population change, tenure type, crowding and housing affordability in these localities. At the same time, it ‘drills down’ to explore some of the drivers and implications of change against these indicators in one case study locality: Geraldton Western Australian. This case study analysis, based on recent fieldwork, grounds the broad identified trends in a localised narrative, illuminating some of general and specific socio-economic and socio-spatial dynamics that shape urban life for Indigenous peoples in regional Australia and the implications of these dynamics for broader questions of co-existence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.     

Towards Closure? Coexistence,remoteness and righteousness in Indigenous policy in Australia

The policy framework claiming to support Indigenous people in remote parts of Australia is in disarray with Commonwealth, state and territory governments proposing closure of remote communities on a range of economic and social policy grounds, but facing significant criticism on economic, environmental, social and cultural grounds. Western Australia's proposal to close 150 remote communities, announced in late-2014, is reviewed and found to reveal a profound failure of geographical literacy.     

Indigenous Payment for Environmental Service (PES) Opportunities in the Northern Territory: negotiating with customs

Recent government initiatives have acknowledged Indigenous ranger groups in the ‘top end’ (northern region) of the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, for their holistic role in environmental management and community development. The services provided by these groups are of national significance with respect to biodiversity protection, ongoing cultural maintenance, employment for remote communities, border protection, and biosecurity. However, the acknowledgement of these services has received only limited translation into meaningful financial and technical support for Indigenous ranger groups. The present paper highlights the value of environmental services provided by Indigenous ranger groups and contrasts this with the inadequate recognition of these services by government agencies. Although government budget initiatives and policy directions are moving towards greater recognition of Indigenous environmental service provision, border protection negotiations between key NT Indigenous sea ranger groups and Australian Customs Service illustrate some of the limiting factors to progression of this recognition. The present paper highlights the necessity of ensuring accountability of processes to Indigenous rangers themselves so that payment for environmental services does not become an imposition, but rather a mechanism for realising Indigenous community aspirations, as well as addressing issues of regional, state/territory, and national significance.     

The Relationship between Wellbeing and Indigenous Land,Language and Culture in Australia

A consistent finding in the literature on Indigenous peoples is the importance of the sustainability of land, language and culture. All three are related, with the maintenance of one helping to protect the others. This paper uses a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of the Indigenous Australian population to look at the factors associated with individual measures of sustainability. Geography matters for those in remote areas who are much more likely to have participated in hunting, fishing and gathering than those in non-remote areas and somewhat more likely to be learning an Indigenous language. However, those in remote areas are somewhat less likely to have participated in Indigenous cultural production. Participation in the mainstream economy is not necessarily a barrier to these aspects of wellbeing as those with high levels of formal education were more likely to speak, understand or be learning an Indigenous language. While important in their own right, such aspects of sustainability also have the potential to directly contribute to narrower measures of social and emotional wellbeing. A positive relationship was found between the sustainability of Indigenous land, language and culture and an Indigenous person's subjective emotional wellbeing.     

The Relationship between Community and Individual Measures of Wellbeing: comparisons by remoteness for Indigenous Australians

For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians, the wellbeing of the community in which one lives and/or has an ongoing attachment to is an important aspect of individual health and wellbeing. In non-Indigenous policy discourse, the main way to summarise community-level wellbeing is through indices of socioeconomic outcomes that can be used to rank regions or areas within regions. While these have been produced for the Indigenous population, they only capture one particular aspect of community wellbeing. The analysis presented in this paper extends our knowledge of place-based community wellbeing by looking at the presence or absence of particular facilities, barriers to accessing services, and neighbourhood or community problems. Indigenous Australians in remote areas were less likely to report the presence of a number of facilities and more likely to report barriers to accessing government services. However, there were no consistent differences in the reporting of neighbourhood and community problems—some types of problems had a higher incidence in non-remote areas (e.g. theft and dangerous or noisy driving), whilst other problems were higher in remote areas (alcohol, illegal drugs and violence). Indices of these variables were also found to be associated with individual emotional wellbeing, providing prima facie evidence of the link between community and individual measures.     

空间微观模拟方法及在城市研究中的应用

基于活动主体的城市系统微观模拟可能在未来城市研究中发挥重要作用,但其通常受到微观个体数据稀缺的限制。空间微观模拟方法（spatial microsimulation）主要基于家庭、个人等微观分析单元,通过整合不同层面的数据源,如宏观汇总层面的人口普查统计表以及微观层面的家庭活动日志调查等,合成大样本微观个体数据集,可以在精细化空间尺度上对微观个体行为进行模拟研究。该方法在城市系统微观模拟、空间分析以及政策评估等方面具有一定优势,在西方国家城市研究中的应用逐渐增多,但在国内较为缺乏。本文尝试对空间微观模拟方法的起源、三种核心算法,包括条件概率（conditional probability） 、确定性加权（deterministic reweighting）以及模拟退火（simulated annealing）进行介绍,并从国际层面综述该方法在城市研究,如收入与贫困、交通出行、健康等领域中的应用,为我国相关研究的开展提供借鉴。     

Simulating trends in poverty and income inequality on the basis of 1991 and 2001 census data: a tale of two cities

How much does the 2001 census tell us about the changes in people's life in British cities and regions since 1991? This paper attempts to answer this question by telling the stories of two British northern cities: Leeds and Sheffield. In particular, the paper investigates and compares socio-economic change in these cities on the basis of actual 1991 and 2001 census data as well as estimated non-census data. A static spatial microsimulation model is used to combine the outputs of the 1991 and 2001 censuses of UK population with data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data. In particular, selected Small Area Statistics (SAS) tables from the 1991 and 2001 censuses are used as constraints in the spatial microsimulation modelling exercise, which aims to reweight BHPS household records so that they satisfy these constraints. The paper briefly discusses the change in these census variables across different localities of the two cities. It is then shown how the changes in these variables affect the simulation of non-census variables. Further, the microsimulation model is used to estimate the trends in income inequalities and child poverty between and within the two cities. Finally, the paper discusses the implication of the research findings for policy formulation.     

1951年以来奥地利人口变化的空间特征

根据1951-2001年奥地利人口调查统计数据,分析了近50年来奥地利人口变化的时空间规律,以及人口变化中的增长区和下降区的区域配置等特征,并建立人口变化模式。研究表明：20世纪后半叶奥地利经历了其他欧盟国所表现出的城市化、城市郊区化和人口老龄化的各个过程。特别是城市老龄化表现更为突出,据预测推算,到2035年奥地利将会有1/3的人口超过60岁。在分析过程中,不仅应用了行政区划的区域方法,而且也依据土地利用的经济性质,在“土地经济生产小区”的基底上,对人口的变化规律进行了更为深入的透视。研究结果显示：奥地利西部阿尔卑斯山地中的城市区域人口增长幅度最大。沿着捷克和斯洛伐克边界伸展的北部和东北部区域是最严重的人口缺失地区。而奥地利阿尔卑斯山地东部的一些早期产业都市及其郊区,乃至更远一些的南部和东南部的老工业区域,目前由于普遍存在着经济的困境,也直接导致了这些地区人口的下降。但奥地利未来的总人口趋势将持续稳定。     

Post‐Katrina Population Loss and Uneven Recovery in New Orleans, 2000–2010

New Orleans has suffered from a significant population decline during 2000–2010, mainly due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Regression models are used here to explain the spatial variability of population change in New Orleans by variables such as proximity (distance or travel time) to the central business district (CBD), a natural environment variable “elevation”, and two composite socio‐demographic indices derived from variables in the census. The research reveals a U‐shaped population‐change profile with distance or travel time from the CBD, population loss bottomed at 4–5 kilometers (10–15 minutes) from the CBD and recovered towards both the CBD and suburbs. This suggests possible converging forces of suburbanization (that is, a nationwide trend that began long before the hurricane) and the CBD's anchoring role in the post‐Katrina recovery. Greater population loss was also observed in the socioeconomically disadvantaged and lower‐elevated areas, but neighborhoods of Hispanic concentration experienced less population loss.     

Space,Place, Population and Census Analysis in Australia

The Australian Census of Population and Housing is a census of people not places. However, where people live and work can be of major relevance in our search for explaining and understanding their behaviour. This paper argues that the place dimension in the Australian census has not been exploited very effectively in this respect. Three dimensions of the issue are addressed. Firstly, the spatial units commonly used for analysis of census data often are not appropriate to the problem being investigated. The spatial units in the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) used for census data rarely represent meaningful social, economic and environmental regions. Secondly, the use of a simple urban/rural dichotomy is criticised as being a very blunt instrument to differentiate settlement types. Thirdly, the relationship between people and place in the census is discussed. While for the most part the census relates people to a single location—their place of usual residence—this is only one of the places with which people regularly interact. It is suggested that there is a need to adopt practices in the census which allow a range of population geographies to be defined. In conclusion it is argued that innovation in the Australian census, especially with the introduction of meshblocks and contemporary methodology and technology in Geographical Information Systems, makes it possible to analyse spatially referenced data in ways that can address these three issues.     

The turnaround in Australia: some first observations from the 1991 census

"The aim of this paper is to utilise recently released census results to examine patterns of population change in non-metropolitan Australia during the 1986-91 period, focusing particularly upon the net migration component of that change. The paper presents an overview of recent trends in population change in non-metropolitan areas and then moves to an analysis of net migration patterns in non-metropolitan local government areas during the late 1980s using a Life Table Survival Ratio technique to estimate net migration. It appears that the trends observed in the early 1980s have continued into the late 1980s and early 1990s, and that overall the 'turnaround' is slowing down and becoming more diversified, more complex, and much less predictable in the 1990s."     

北京市人口时空变化与情景预测研究

利用第五次和第六次人口普查数据,分析北京全域乡镇街道尺度人口空间变化格局特征,并借助CA-MAS模型对未来城市人口格局进行情景模拟,以期增进对北京人口时空动态的认识,为北京城市管理决策和宏观调控提供科学参考。研究表明：① 2000-2010年,北京常住人口年均增长率高达3.5%,年均增加近60万人,是同期我国人口增长最快的特大城市之一;② 北京全域人口变化在空间上具有明显的圈层式特征,集中表现为中心区人口增长几乎停滞、近郊区人口快速增长、远郊城市发展新区人口高速增长、远郊生态涵养区往往仅区县政府驻地及重点乡镇人口明显增长;③ 基于CA-MAS的情景模拟分析表明,在自发布局情景下,就业机会进一步向城市中心集聚,人口居住不断郊区化,这将增大城市的通勤压力,加剧城市交通拥堵状况,而通过调整就业参数,强化工作地居住功能的引导政策,则能在一定程度上解决城市内部空间尺度产城失衡的问题,可促进小城镇群的形成,有利于降低城市通勤压力,发挥城市的辐射和扩散作用。本文认为,为实现北京人口空间布局优化,应着力促进就业与居住相协调,推动区域间公共资源均等化,规划多中心组团发展。     

东北三省人口流失的测算及演化格局研究

东北三省养育了全国8%的人口,但是改革开放以来人口不断外迁和流出,东北三省人口流失问题受到广泛关注。基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样统计资料,系统地测算东北三省人口流失量,从省级和县市2个空间尺度分析东北三省人口流失的演化格局。主要结论包括：① 2000~2015年,东北三省人口出现持续流失,并且不断加剧。② 东北三省并不是中国人口流失最严重的地区。③ 东北三省内部出现较多人口流失的县市,空间范围呈现扩张。④ 经济动能不足是东北三省人口流失的主要原因。⑤ 东北三省人口发展的真正问题不在数量,而在人口质量和结构,包括人才流失严重、人口老龄化加剧、人口空间结构高度极化等。     

基于镇域尺度的江苏省人口分布空间格局演变

基于2000年、2010年人口普查乡镇（街道）数据,运用探索性空间数据分析、半变异函数等方法,分析江苏省人口分布的时空分异特征,并揭示其空间演化机理。结果表明：① 江苏省人口分布呈现较大的空间差异,全省层面上呈现南北人口密度高于中部的“凹”字型结构,城乡层面上呈现街道人口密度高于乡镇的“城乡二元”结构,以及沿江地区明显的“核心边缘”结构;② 研究期内江苏省人口分布的空间不均衡性和集聚性呈增强之势,长江以北镇域的人口密度大多降低而以南普遍增加,苏锡常、南京、徐州三大都市圈的人口集聚能力进一步提升,沿江地区成为全省规模最大的高密度人口连绵区;③ 空间关联作用是引起江苏省人口分布格局变化的空间机理,而政策、区位、经济与自然环境等因素是造成江苏人口格局变化的主要动力。     

青藏高原人口地域分异规律及“胡焕庸线”思想应用

青藏高原是中国乃至全球典型的人口稀疏区之一,但内部人口地域分异明显。通过构建青藏高原乡镇街道尺度的人口空间数据集,系统核算青藏高原人口数量及其空间密度,从经度、纬度、极向和垂直4个维度解析青藏高原人口地域分异规律,并基于“胡焕庸线”思想,提出青藏高原的“祁吉线”人口地理划分方案。结论包括：① 青藏高原人口空间分布不均衡,具有“东南密、西北疏”的总体空间分布特征,距离“寒旱核心区”近疏远密的极向地域分异明显;② 青藏高原人口地域分异与海拔、土壤、水资源、气候、植被等自然环境本底具有高度耦合关系,自然因素间交互作用加强了人口地域分异;③ 青藏高原人口地域分异可以通过连接祁连县与吉隆县的“祁吉线”体现,两侧地域面积大致相同,但是东南半壁与西北半壁人口比例达到93∶7的悬殊;④ “祁吉线”长期稳定,但是东南半壁人口持续微降,西北半壁人口持续微增,未来时期,东南半壁依然是青藏高原城镇化及人类活动的主要区域,而西北半壁应当重视人口增长与生态环境压力的矛盾。     

Emerging Geographies of Conservation and Indigenous Land in Australia

International examples of interactions between Indigenous peoples and the new conservation paradigm come mainly from developing countries and suggest divisions over priorities. As a Western settler society, Australia is at a critical time in conservation and Indigenous peoples' rights. Innovative approaches to conservation are promoted. The role and influence of non-governmental organisations is increasing. Indigenous peoples' rights to land are recognised and Indigenous involvement in conservation is growing. Yet, despite Australia being considered a leader in these arenas, particularly the latter, there has been little analysis of the relationship between innovative approaches to conservation and Indigenous Australians under the new paradigm. This paper describes how the spatial manifestations of approaches under the new conservation paradigm and Indigenous land in Australia are creating new geographies. We identify geographies of overlap, dichotomy and absence. The paper identifies research needs into these geographies, including: examining the influence of ‘recognition’ in engagements between conservation and Indigenous Australians; investigating the impacts of approaches under the new paradigm such as scaling-up, territorialism and differing governance structures on Indigenous Australians; and questioning the social responsibilities of the non-governmental organisations towards Indigenous Australians.     

Providing the evidence: Geographic accessibility of maternity units in New Zealand

Abstract:  Public health planners should be providing evidence to the public that maternity units are fairly distributed. This research demonstrates how a Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used to provide information on travel time to the closest maternity unit from the 38 000 population census enumeration districts in New Zealand. The distribution of accessibility is mapped and regions and population groups that appear under-serviced are highlighted. We conclude by stating that GIS accessibility models provide important evidence for health policy and that the information generated from these models should be routinely produced for a wide range of health services and communicated to the public.     

黑龙江省内部中长期城镇人口迁移行为分析与建模

人口迁移的时空分异与影响机制一直是人口学研究关注的焦点。本文基于社保关系转移视角,从时间和空间两个维度探究黑龙江省城镇工作人口省内的中长期迁移规律与时空分异特征,并且结合人口推拉理论与OD模型,综合考虑经济和就业政策因素,建立了能够反映以社保劳动关系转移为基础的中长期人口迁移动力学模型。研究结果表明：基于社保关系的城镇工作人口迁移符合截断指数幂律分布,呈现列维飞行特点;该省省内人口迁出呈现多层级跨区域分布格局,人口迁入呈现“四核心-环东南”格局,人口迁入与迁出空间格局具有一定程度的类似性;黑龙江省边境城市人口流失情况较为严重;城镇职工迁移行为的无序性不断加大,迁移的频率较高;但是经过通过模拟,该省城镇职工的迁移系统趋向于平衡发展。