中国煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布丛集特征的初步研究

近期,中国数字地名库被公布,基于该库,本文对研究时段内5 825起煤矿灾害进行了空间定位,并将这些灾害与中国大陆同期发生的全部天然地震活动按照时空顺序进行了“回放”,揭示出48.7%的煤矿灾害不是随机分布,而是呈现典型的丛集特征,同时,部分煤矿灾害伴随周边地震活动。在深入研究中,发现更多的煤矿灾害都有微地震伴随,且地震在前,灾害在后的例子较多。在目前所认识的各致灾要素中,能够引发各种不同类型的灾害集中连续发生的,只有地应力扰动。大量伴随煤矿灾害的微地震有可能成为煤矿灾害前后构造应力场发生扰动（并致灾）的地球物理证据。为获得呈丛集发生的灾害比例、伴随灾害的地震数量、丛集序列一般持续的时间等重要信息,本文开展了时空丛集程度的定量研究。研究显示,在 100英里阀值约束下,至少38.5%的灾害呈丛集发生（总数7 368）,其中,有372次灾害伴随地震活动;在时间上,灾害序列持续 2天的最多,1天的次之, 3天的再次,……,最长达11天。丛集序列持续的时间潜在地反映“应力扰动”持续的时间,那些持续1~2天的丛集序列与5级以下地震对应良好,可能和局部应力扰动有关;而那些持续时间长的丛集序列与宏观地震对应良好,可能与宏观灾害性地震引发的大范围应力扰动有关。本文将各距离阀值下完整的丛集序列追踪整理出来,供读者查询。最后,文章对丛集现象的机理进行了一般分析,并结合具体地质模型讨论了采掘活动与地震活动对矿区地应力的影响关系,分析了5种可能的影响情况。相关内容仅为推测,不做立论。该现象尚未被人们认识,对于地震研究和煤矿应力灾害研究,可能具有更多的启发意义。     

On Fundamentals Predicting Floods-Landslides

ＣＯＮＣＥＰＴＩＯＮＳＯＦＨＥＡＶＹＦＬＯＯＤＳＣＡＵＳＩＮＧＬＡＮＤ┐ＳＬＩＤＥ／ＳＬＩＤＥＴｈｅｒｅａｒｅｍａｎｙｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒｓ／ｈａｚａｒｄｓｏｃｃｕｒｉｎｇｏｎｔｈｅｅａｒｔｈ’ｓｓｕｒｆａｃｅ．Ｔｈｅｓｅｅｖｅｎｔｓｐｒｅｓｅｎｔｅｄａ...     

中国的巨灾风险与巨灾防范

巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。      

中国地震次生地质灾害危险性评价

地震次生地质灾害主要指地震引起的崩塌、滑坡、塌陷、地裂缝、砂土液化。震级大于5级、烈度超过Ⅵ度的地震可能引发不同程度的地质灾害,震级和烈度越高,次生地质灾害越严重。本文根据中国历史地震次生地质灾害活动程度及发生条件,以地(市、区、盟)为单元,进行了危险性评价:高度和中度危险区主要分布在中国中部的陕甘宁川渝滇藏地区,形成一个大致NE向高危险带,其余大部分地区为轻度危险区。      

Natural hazards and disasters in Latin America

Natural hazards and disasters occur widely throughout the world. Disasters can be costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Higher death tolls in developing nations may be the result of poverty, rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate communication facilities. The purpose of this study is to show patterns of major catastrophic events in Latin America so that their impacts can be evaluated and compared.Latin America was selected because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico, volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. Spatial and temporal aspects of natural disasters are presented in nine tables and 21 maps. The tables give selected disaster data by country for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and atmospheric disturbances from the 16th century to 1989. Most data is derived from disasters occurring during the 20th century and include number of events, people killed, people affected, and U.S.$ damage. Maps show environmental settings for disasters and allow detailed comparison among countries. Floods account for the greatest number of major events in the most countries, earthquakes cause the most deaths and damage, while droughts affect the most people. Peru surpasses all others in susceptibility to major disasters. Assessment of vulnerability to hazards, improved economic opportunities, and an increased social and political concern for poor people should help reduce future losses from natural disasters in Latin America.     

青藏高原东南缘活动断裂地质灾害效应研究现状

青藏高原东南缘不同性质、不同类型、不同特点活动断裂发育且较为活跃,自2008年汶川地震发生以来,相继发生了玉树地震、庐山地震、鲁甸地震等。地震引发、触发、诱发产生了大量地质灾害,造成了惨重的生命财产损失。通过收集与分析相关资料,对青藏高原东南缘活动断裂地质灾害效应研究进展与取得成果进行了归纳总结,从活动断裂地质灾害主要控制因素,地质灾害发育特征、空间分布规律、演化模式、形成机制,不同性质断裂控制效应、断裂两盘差异效应、地震动参数效应、地形地貌效应等地质环境效应和地质灾害力学效应等方面进行了综述。在此基础上,对活动断裂地质灾害效应研究中存在的如不同类型活动断裂和不同震级地震与地震地质灾害相关性、以及地震地质灾害监测与风险评估等问题或重点研究方向进行了探讨,其研究结果为地震地质灾害致灾机理、风险评估、防灾减灾等研究提供参考。      

Mental health preparedness for natural disasters in Iran

Appropriate emergency preparedness and response rely on social, economical, cultural, and political infrastructures, which vary widely according to the level of the development of each country. Mental health damages are among the consequences of absence of such infrastructure, which have not been studied comprehensively till to date. In most countries, planning for natural disasters and earthquakes has been mainly focused on physical and economical impacts; however, lessons learnt from recent earthquakes in Iran and other countries show that psychological impacts need to be considered more seriously. The first responder to an emergency is really the affected community, which consequently should be mentally prepared by appropriate training programs. These should include simple psychosocial interventions developed for people with average level of education in a way to be easily understandable and practicable. After the Bam earthquake, local community volunteers have been selected and trained to provide post-disaster mental health services.     

四川锦屏山地区新构造运动及地质灾害

文章通过对四川锦屏山地区区域地质概况、河流阶地、第四纪断层及老断层新活动、地震活动的研究，认为该地区自更新世以来，新构造运动较为强烈，由此造成的地质灾害主要有滑坡、崩榻、泥石流等。     

中国活动构造与环境灾害研究中的若干重大问题

活动构造与环境灾害是密切相关的。活动构造可以直接引起地质灾害,构造活动引发的地震又可以派生出一系列地质灾害,人类不恰当的工程活动还可以恶化地质构造环境而加剧地质灾害。在活动构造与环境灾害相关性研究方面,我国急待启动四大科学问题的研究工作:基于现代大陆动力学的中国大陆区域地壳稳定性分区评价研究;青藏高原隆升与地质灾害;活动断裂的工程危害及其防治;地质灾害的内外动力耦合成因机理。     

福建十年地震灾害与减灾

福建减灾十年(1989-1999)正处在我省地震活动十分活跃的时期,共发生4.0级以上地震16次,其中有6次地震造成了地震灾害,使我省经济损失达2.6亿元,人员伤亡412人,并对当地的社会生活和经济建设产生了消极影响。文章分析了本省地震活动特点与灾害特征,分析了造成本省地震灾害的主要因素和地震灾害不十分严重的原因。 在福建减灾十年中,省地震部门坚持以预防为主,依靠科技进步,发挥政府减灾职能,走综合防震减灾道路;认真抓好观测数据高质量产出,各类信息处理与综合分析,震后快速应急三个环节;积极实施全省综合防御地震灾害体系建设,闽南地区综合防震减灾示范工程已经在全国综合防震减灾工作中起到示范作用,福建数字遥测地震台网工程成为中国大陆第一个正式投入观测的全省数字化地震台网;同时加快了法制建设步伐,坚持不懈地进行地震知识的科普宣传教育,努力提高全民防震减灾意识。这些措施对减轻福建十年地震灾害取得显著收益。 为了减轻我省下世纪地震灾害,提出几个值得重视的向题,防患于未然。全省地震前兆台网必须彻底改造,建设高灵敏度、高精度的数字化前兆台网,引入新的观测系统,以期捕捉未来中强以上地震的前兆信息;关注未来城市地震灾害向题,应该开展城市地震灾害环境调查与研究;加强管理,对地震烈度     

基于InSAR识别的黄土高原活动性地质灾害发育规律分析

地震、 降雨、 人类工程活动诱发的活动性地质灾害在黄土高原频现,但由于其地域广阔、 构造活跃、 地貌类型多样、 各地黄土特性差异较大,一直以来缺乏活动性地质灾害发育分布的系统认识.InSAR技术具有大范围观测地表变形的能力,文章利用2019年1月1日至2020年3月31日期间40期Sentinal-1 SAR数据,计算...     

强震作用下均质岩质边坡动力响应的振动台模型试验研究

近年来我国地震灾害频发,强震诱发边坡失稳作为地震中最为常见的次生灾害,致使我国的地震滑坡灾害数量位居全世界之首,针对强震作用下岩质边坡动力响应问题,采用铁粉、重晶石粉、石英砂、石膏、水作为相似材料,开展了均质岩质边坡振动台试验。详细分析了均质边坡模型在不同频率和幅值地震波输入下的地震动响应特征,发现当频率较低时,沿坡表水平距离方向上监测点的水平加速度放大系数是单调增大的,坡肩处水平加速度放大系数达到最大值,当频率进一步增大接近或者超过模型自振频率时,边坡模型不再呈现出典型的放大现象;相同幅值不同频率加载条件下,均质边坡模型的自振频率变化整体不太明显,而输入加速度幅值的变化对自振频率的影响更为显著,低频成分对模型损伤不明显,高频及自振频率附近频段对均质边坡的损伤更为强烈,导致模型的自振频率显著下降。该问题的研究对强震作用下岩质边坡地震动响应及变形破坏机理研究具有一定的指导意义。     

Grey Prediction of Seismic Activity in the Three Gorges Area of the Yangtze River

On the basis of historical earthquake data and recent observations, two grey models prediction of the next seismic active period and the maximal magnitude of earthquakes which might occur during that period are constructed on the basis of the grey theory. As predicted by the two models, the next seismic active period would last 79 years, and that the maximal magnitude of earthquakes occurring within the period would not exceed 5.2. These results provide an important basis for the assessment of earthquake risks and reduction of disasters in the Three Gorges area.     

The comparison analysis of Chinese public perception of earthquakes on different time scales

China has suffered from severe earthquake disasters in recent years. In order to explore the impact of severe earthquakes on public risk perception on different time scales, four surveys were conducted twice each after the severe Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes. t tests were performed between two consecutive surveys to explore the change of public risk attitudes. The results demonstrated that after the two severe earthquakes, the public seismic risk acceptance has increased over time, and the comparison between pre- and post-Yushu earthquake illustrated that the severe disaster had more impact on vulnerable population such as females, children and low-income people. Moreover, linear regression models were employed to find the determining factors of public acceptance towards earthquake risks. It was discovered that the public perceived earthquake effect had significant negative relationship with seismic risk acceptance, and public trust towards local government had positive relationship with the risk acceptance. This study could help government to gain better understanding of public mental status and take more effective disaster preparedness measures when preventing and responding to a severe earthquake.     

Faulty construction: Earthquakes and the culture of prevention in California

In the last half of the twentieth century, urban Californians came to expect that engineering solutions would overcome the threat of natural seismic activities. This sanguine attitude is rooted in the rise of urban/industrial society, which resulted in huge capital investments in modern cities, complex infrastructures, and made residents increasingly dependent on centralized services for water, fuel, food, transportation, communication, and shelter. While peril from earthquakes seldom concerned people in the rural/agrarian world, the nature of the modern city enormously heightened the risk of ruinous loss to human life and property from natural disasters. The cataclysmic earthquake that wreaked havoc on San Francisco in 1906 plainly illustrated this, and in its wake engineers and geologists developed a sustained interest in understanding seismic activity and constructing earthquake-safe buildings.The study of earthquakes and aseismic building construction evolved with each new earthquake. Earthquake intensities and ground motions were measured and compared. Fallen and standing structures were studied. Chasing earthquakes became a way of life for some investigators, as they gained confidence that they could make modern cities safe against tremors. Over time a culture of prevention emerged, initially fostered by engineers and geologists, eventually sustained by those who invested in the modern city – capitalists and governing officials – and ultimately embraced by the general public. Thus, Californians became believers in a culture of prevention grounded in societal confidence that people can control the natural world with science and technology.     

基于简化Newmark模型的长白山天池火山诱发崩塌滑坡危险性评价

火山喷发过程所伴生的地震活动会诱发大量的崩塌滑坡次生灾害,其所造成的人员财产损失甚至超过火山活动本身。2002年以来长白山天池火山区地震活动的异常,表明火山深部的岩浆正在发生变化,天池火山存在喷发的危险。地震崩塌滑坡的危险性区划是降低生命财产损失的有效手段。将火山伴生地震作为崩塌滑坡灾害的诱发因素并据此设置地震参数,利用简化的Newmark累积位移模型,考虑地形因素对地震的放大效应,对长白山地区天池火山喷发下次生崩塌、滑坡灾害的危险性进行评价。通过探讨不同地震震级下的危险性分区结果,认为不同地震参数的设置对危险性分区结果没有影响。将研究区划分为极高、高、中等、低、极低等5个危险等级,其中,极高危险区主要分布在3个区域:以天池口为中心,40km为半径的范围内;沿江乡—两江镇—松江镇条带区域;长白县境内鸭绿江沿岸区域。     

RS and GIS-based Statistical Analysis of Secondary Geological Disasters after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

Using RS and GIS means,this article analyzes the general geological characteristics and the structural belt distribution features in Wenchuan County,Sichuan province,P.R.China as well as the characteristics of the large-scale landslides,mud-rock flows,earthquake lakes,etc.,after the earthquake on May 12,2008.Based on the above work,comprehensive indoor and outdoor research is launched on disaster distribution characteristics and their relationship with earthquakes,terrains, strata,lithology,and structure...     

国道318线海竹段公路整改遥感选线研究

国道318线海子山－竹巴笼段们于四川省西部与西藏自治区交界处，由于受印度板块强烈影响，地震频繁，导致该路段地质灾害频繁发生，严重影响着进藏物资的运输和当地经济的发展。经过遥感调查，分析，确定地质灾达的发育特征，从地质背景，地质灾害，生态环境，经济等方面进行综合比较，确定最佳路线方案。     

震害遥感快速提取研究——以2003年2月24日巴楚—伽师6.8级地震为例

论述了遥感影像提取震害的研究进展 ,提出了基于GIS和数字图像处理技术的震害遥感快速提取与损失评估的技术途径。在此基础上 ,介绍了巴楚—伽师地震的航空与卫星遥感资料的获取、图像数字处理与震害提取过程 ;描述了地震造成的建筑物震害与地质灾害的遥感图像特征 ;根据以往震害遥感影像统计经验与本次地震震害遥感特征 ,提出了遥感震害分级分类标准和地震烈度划分标准 ,进而得到基于震害遥感影像的伽师地震等震线图。文中对所得到的地震烈度与地面实际调查结果进行了比较。通过遥感信息源空间分辨率要求与信息获取与处理的时效性分析 ,认为我国利用航空遥感与卫星遥感资料获取地震灾情信息已进入实用阶段     

川西地区地质灾害发育特征与时空分布规律

川西地区受青藏高原隆升和发育于青藏高原的大江大河深切割等作用,共发育地质灾害16411处,以滑坡和泥石流为主,是我国地质灾害高风险地区。本文采用资料收集、数理统计、Arcgis软件分析等方法分析发现,川西地质灾害具有成因机制复杂,突发性、群发性与链生性、危害大等特点。形成机理差异大,滑坡变形模式以滑移-拉裂、蠕滑-剪断、倾倒折断等模式为主;泥石流形成机理主要为土力-水力驱动型和堵溃型;崩塌失稳主要表现为滑移式、倾倒式和坠落式。发育分布规律在低山和中山区呈带状,和沿活动断裂带和深切河谷呈线状集中分布;受地震和强降雨影响,地质灾害年际变化大,2008、2009、2013年、2017年地质灾害频发、高发和群发期。