天山—帕米尔结合带的地壳速度结构及地震活动研究

利用流动地震台阵记录的地震数据,通过地震层析技术反演了天山—帕米尔结合带的P波速度结构,揭示出地壳结构的非均匀特征及其与地震活动的对应关系. 分析结果表明,天山和西昆仑的双向挤压导致塔里木西部边缘地壳严重变形,在山前地区形成基底隆起带,地壳深部则被断裂分割成为若干块体,有的块体可能卷入造山带内部;喀什坳陷地壳深部结构相对完整,变形程度较弱;天山和西昆仑的地壳结构显示出缩短增厚的波速特性,在与塔里木接壤的局部地区,壳幔边界附近存在热物质的侵入迹象. 大部分地震都发生在塔里木西部边缘的壳内高速块体周围,推测块体之间的相互作用和应力调整是导致天山—帕米尔结合带频繁发生地震的主要原因,伽师地震则与构造变形由天山向塔里木内部扩展以及该地区的地壳非均匀结构有关.     

Double origin of hydrothermal convective flux variations in the Fossa of Vulcano (Italy)

Soil-temperature measurements can provide information on the distribution of degassing fissures, their relationship to the internal structure of the volcano, and the temporal evolution of the system. At Vulcano Island (Italy), heat flux from a <3 km-deep magma body drives a hydrothermal system which extends across the main Fossa crater. This heat flux is also associated with variable magmatic gas flow. A high-density map of soil-temperatures was made in 1996 at a constant depth of 30 cm on the central and southern inner flanks of the Fossa crater. These measurements extended over an area covering about 0.04 km², across which the heat flux is predominantly associated with a shallow boiling aquifer. The map shows that hot zones relate to structures of higher permeability, mainly associated with a fissure system dating from the last eruptive cycle (1888–1890). From 1996 to January 2005, we studied the evolution of the heat flux for the high temperature part of the map, both by repeating our measurements as part of 14 visits, during which temperatures were measured at a constant depth, and using data from permanent stations which allowed soil-temperatures to be continuously measured for selected vertical profiles. These data allowed us to calculate the heat flux, and its variation, with good precision for values lower than about 100 W m⁻², which is generally the case in the study area. Above 100 W m⁻², although the heat flux value is underestimated, its variations are recorded with an error less than 10%. During the period 1996–2004, two increases in the thermal flux were recorded. The first one was related to the seismic crisis of November 1998 which opened existing or new fissures. The second, in November 2004, was probably due to magma migration, and was associated with minor seismic activity.     

Imaging and modelling the subsurface structure of volcanic calderas with high-resolution aeromagnetic data at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands,Italy)

In this paper, we present a magnetic model of the subsurface structure of Vulcano island based on high-resolution aeromagnetic data. Three profiles across the most intense magnetic anomalies over the Piano and Fossa calderas were selected for the magnetic modelling, which was constrained by structural and volcanological data, previous geophysical models, paleomagnetic data, and borehole stratigraphy obtained from two deep wells. The interpretation of the magnetic sources represents a significant contribution to the understanding of the Piano and Fossa calderas’ underlying structure, providing us with evidence of the lateral discontinuity between them at depth. We propose that the positive magnetic anomalies in the Piano caldera area are caused by: (a) the remnants of an early submarine volcano; (b) an outcropping dyke swarm related to the feeding system of the Primordial Vulcano phase (beneath Mt. Saraceno); and (c) the presence of a non-outcropping dyke system intruded along a NE–SW-oriented intra-caldera fault (beneath the eastern part of the Piano caldera). Offshore, to the west, the magnetic anomaly map suggests the presence of a submarine volcanic structure, not revealed by bathymetric data, which could represent the eruptive centre, the presence of which has been indirectly deduced from the outcrop of eastern-dipping lavas on the western seashore. Magnetic modelling of the Fossa caldera points to the presence of a highly magnetized cone-like body inside the Fossa cone, centred beneath the oldest crater rims. We interpret this body as a pile of tephritic lavas emplaced in an early phase of activity of the Fossa cone, suggesting that the volume of mafic lavas that erupted at the beginning of the construction of the Fossa edifice was more significant than has previously been deduced. Furthermore, the presence of a magnetized body inside the Fossa cone implies that high temperatures are contained in very limited spaces, do not affect its bulk inner structure, and are restricted to fumarolic conduits and vents. In addition, structures beneath the western and northern part of the Fossa caldera are revealed to have null or low magnetization, which can be ascribed to the presence of pyroclasts and hyaloclastites in this area as well as to a large volume of hydrothermally altered materials. This suggests that the hydrothermal system, with a very limited extension at present, affected a larger area in the past, especially beneath the western part of the caldera.     

Time variability of low-temperature fumaroles at Stromboli island (Italy) and its application to volcano monitoring

The constant and mild activity of Stromboli volcano (Italy) is occasionally interrupted by effusive events and/or more energetic explosions, referred to as major explosions and paroxysms, which are potentially dangerous for the human community. Although several premonitory signals for effusive phases have been identified, precursors of major explosions and paroxysms still remain poorly understood. With the aim of contributing to the identification of possible precursors of energetic events, this work discusses soil temperature data acquired in low-temperature fumaroles at Stromboli in the period 2006–2010. Data analysis revealed that short-term anomalies recorded in the thermal signal are potentially useful in predicting state changes of the volcano. In particular, sudden changes in fumarole temperatures and their hourly gradients were observed from several days to a few hours prior to fracturing and paroxysmal events, heralded by peculiar waveforms of the recorded signals. The qualitative interpretation is supported by a quantitative, theoretical treatment that uses circuit theory to explain the time dependence of the short-period temperature variations, showing a good agreement between theoretical and observational data.     

中国西部地区地壳结构特征与强震活动相关性研究

中国西部地区是地震活动十分强烈的地区,天山、阿尔泰、帕米尔和西昆仑都是著名的地震构造带,在这些地震构造带和周边地区发生了多次震级大于5级的强震.本文通过分析西部地区的重力场特征,根据重力数据结合地震剖面、应用Parker-Oldenburg方法反演得到了研究区莫霍面深度,通过对比地震层析成像的反演结果,分析了研究区的地壳结构特征.计算结果表明,研究区地壳结构不均匀特征明显,在造山带地区一般是莫霍面坳陷区,盆地则是莫霍面隆起区,主要造山带地壳速度结构表现为高速区,盆地和主要凹陷区为低速区.根据计算结果和以往强震震中位置分析了地壳构造与强震活动的相关性,西部地区的地震活动与地壳结构的横向不均匀密切相关,强震主要发生在地壳速度变化带附近和地壳速度结构差异较大的地区,在构造应力作用下,这些地壳介质非均匀地区易发生强震,这是中国西部造山带和盆-山边界附近频发强震的构造原因之一.     

1970年以来鲜水河断裂带地震活动特征与2014年康定M_S6.3地震

本文基于1970年以来的地震目录及四川地区4.0级以上地震的震源机制解资料,分析鲜水河断裂带分段(炉霍段、道符段、康定段、石棉段)的地震活动特征及研究区现代构造应力场,结合深部速度结构,探讨鲜水河断裂带上地震活动频度与龙门山断裂带地震活动的关系及康定地段6.3级地震的孕震环境。结果发现:(1)鲜水河断裂带北段和南段地震活动性存在差异,炉霍段和道孚段的地震活动频度1981年前要高于2000年后,康定段和石棉段的地震活动频度2000年以后高于1981年前;(2)分析地壳P波速度结构发现康定震区西侧川滇块体表现出低速异常,东侧表现出高速异常;(3)对构造应力场的分析结果表明龙门山断裂带主要以NW-SE向挤压为主,鲜水河断裂带构造应力场以NWW-SEE向为主。综合鲜水河断裂带应力场特征、深部速度结构、断层间的相互作用等信息推断,康定M6.3地震的发生与该地区应力积累及深部孕震环境相关,同时由于龙门山断裂带地震活动性影响,导致鲜水河断裂带康定段的能量释放。     

Source parameters and stress release of seismic sequences occurred in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia

The source parameters of the major events of a swarm and of two seismic sequences, occurred in the Friuli area (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia, were estimated. The Claut swarm (C96) occurred since the end of January to June 1996, with a M_D 4.3 major shock and it appears composed of three sub-sequences. The two sequences are the Kobarid sequence (K98) started on April 12, 1998 with a M_D 5.6 mainshock and the M.te Sernio (S02) sequence caused by the February 14, 2002 earthquake (M_D = 4.9). Acceleration and velocity data recorded by the local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimenale (OGS) and corrected for attenuation, were employed to estimate seismic moments and radiated energies. Source dimensions were inferred from the computed corner frequencies and the stress release was estimated from the Brune stress drop, the apparent stress and the RMS stress drop. On the whole, seismic moments range from 1.7 × 10¹² to 1.1 × 10¹⁷ N m, and radiated energies are in the range 10⁶–10¹³ J. Brune stress drops are scattered and do not show any evidence of a self-similarity breakdown for sources down to 130 m radius. The radiated seismic energy scales as a function of seismic moment, with a slope of the scaling relation that decreases for increasing seismic moments.The mechanism of stress release was analyzed by computing the ɛ parameter of Zuniga [Zuniga, R., 1993. Frictional overshoot and partial stress drop. Which one? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83, 939–944]. The K98 and S02 sequences are characterized by a wide range of the ɛ parameter with stress drop mechanism varying from partial locking to overshoot cases. The ɛ values of the C96 swarm are more homogeneous and close to the Orowan's condition. The radiated seismic energy and the ratio of stress drop between mainshock and aftershocks appear different among the analyzed cases. We therefore investigated the relationship between the stress parameters of the main shock and the energy radiated by the aftershock sequences. For this purpose, we also estimated the source parameters of two other sequences occurred in the area, with mainshocks of M_D 4.1 and 5.1, respectively. We found a positive correlation between the Brune stress drop of the mainshock and the ratio between the radiated energy of the mainshock and the summation of the energies radiated by the aftershocks.     

山东地区地壳P波三维速度结构及其与地震活动的关系

利用山东及周边区域地震台网1975—2014年1月期间记录到的1369个地震的13781个P波到时数据对山东地区地壳结构进行了层析成像研究.结果表明,山东地区地壳速度结构存在明显的不均匀性.沂沭断裂带介质速度结构复杂,呈现明显的分段特征,两侧块体速度存在差异,具有块体边界的构造特征.鲁西断块20km以下深度处存在大规模的低速异常区,这与该地区始新世发生的大规模滑脱拆离构造有关,可能产生于太平洋板块的西向俯冲导致地幔热物质沿沂沭断裂带向上并向西涌动.历史大震及ML4.0以上中强震大部分为走滑型地震,主要发生于高低速异常过渡带且有深大断裂穿过的地区.震群主要发生于低速体上部或周边,且震源深度优势分布在中上地壳,这与地下介质富含流体并导致应力集中有关.     

查表法设计地震活动模糊预测预警系统

模糊数学方法在地震学研究,特别是在地震预测工作中起到过重要的作用。近年发展起来的模糊查表法是模糊数学中新出现的一种新的模糊系统有效方法,在智能控制、机器学习、序列建模、综合预测中获得了广泛的应用,取得了显著效果。基于此,把该方法引入地震活动趋势预测和预警研究工作中:首先介绍了模糊查表法的方法与原理,然后基于该方法和由最大震级序列形成的多维样本建立了华北地区及主要地震活动带最大震级时间序列的趋势预测和预警模型,并对获得的模型进行了内符检验,最后对建模方法和计算结果进行了详细讨论。综合分析认为,该方法原理简单直观,计算结果稳健,建模与预测精度较高,外推泛化能力较强,可以作为地震趋势预测和预警的一种有效方法。     

Exotic seismic phases recorded near Mammoth Lakes and their use in the delineation of shallow-crustal (magma?) anomalies

Observations of several hundredexotic seismic phases (herein defined) recorded in and near Long Valley caldera, California, have been cataloged. I discuss here four classes of such seismograms: (1) seismograms with missing S-waves, (2) seismograms with an unusual pre-S phase seen at the single station SLK northwest of the caldera, (3) seismograms with a strong pre-S phase as seen at a number of stations south of the caldera, and (4) a very large, very slow (<2 km/sec) post-S phase seen at the single station Benton. For each of these phenomena, it is not yet possible to pin down an unambiguous and unique theoretical explanation. However, for each, I have presented an explanation, summarizing current thinking, which involves nonplanar reflections/refractions within shallow-crustal anomalous zones which can reasonably be supposed to be magma bodies. If these explanations are even partially pertinent, then the investigation of exotic phases near complex regions like Mammoth Lakes and other volcanic areas is potentially a way to bring precise resolving power on the nature and geometry of local crustal anomalies.     

Analysis of long-period events recorded at Mount Etna (Italy) in 1992, and their relationship to eruptive activity

Seismic activity recorded at Mount Etna during 1992 was characterized by long-period (LP) events and tremor with fluctuating amplitudes. These signals were associated with the evolution of the eruptive activity that began on December 14, 1991. Following the occurrence of numerous volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the onset of the eruption, LP events dominated the overall seismicity starting in January, 1992. The LP activity occurred primarily in swarms, which were temporally correlated with episodic collapses of the crater floor in the Northeast Crater. Source depths determined for selected LP events suggest a source region located slightly east of Northeast Crater and extending from the surface to a depth of 2000 m. Based on the characteristic signatures of the time series, four families of LP events are identified. Each family shares common spectral peaks independent of azimuth and distance to the source. These spectral features are used to develop a fluid-filled crack model of the source. We hypothesize that the locus of the LP events represents a segment of the magma feeding system connecting a depressurizing magma body with a dike extending in the SSE direction along the western wall of Valle del Bove, toward the site of the Mount Etna eruption. We surmise that magma withdrawal from the source volume beneath Northeast Crater may have caused repeated collapses of the crater floor. Some collapse events may have produced pressure transients in the subjacent dike which acted as seismic wave sources for LP events.     

Source characterisation of low frequency events at Stromboli and Vulcano Islands (Isole Eolie Italy)

The discussion about the source of low frequency events generally wrecorded on active volcanoes is still open and needs deeper understanding of the phenomena involved in their generation. Most of the models view such a phenomenon as a source effect (oscillation of volcanic fluids in conduits or cracks), although a different explanation as a path or site effect exists. In the present paper we analysed 26 seismic signals recorded at Vulcano and 60 at Stromboli in order to put some constraints on the functional shape of the recorded signals. They evidence all the characteristics of the low frequency events. The spectral analysis reveals sharp peaks in the range 0.5–4 Hz, while the cepstra suggest that the signals are composed by a two-sine kind function. This suggestion is confirmed by the two-dimensional projections of the reconstructed phase space. The correlation dimension of the attractor is very close to 3 for both the volcanoes confirming the existence of a toroidal structure in the phase space. This implies that we can suggest as a model for the low frequency events source a physical mechanism very similar to a Duffing oscillator or any other quasiperiodic one. In particular in the cases of the analysed volcanoes we recognise two independent oscillations.     

中国东部地区地震活动与构造应力场关系的有限元数值模拟

运用有限元数值模拟方法结合板块构造边界条件和板内构造分布特征对中国大陆东部地区的基本构造应力场进行数值模拟,根据研究区受周边板块作用的情况分析板块边界作用力的变化对内部应力场的影响。对比有限元数值模拟结果解释了中国大陆东部地区地震活动空间分布的特点。     

运用S方法预测中等地震及小震震群活动性的研究

运用S方法处理流动地磁测量资料，与小震震群地震活动频次对比分析，结果表明流磁测线S值出现异常，一年内小震震群地震活动频次增高；反之，S值较小，则地震活动频次较低；流磁测线S值出现异常，其邻近地区可能发生MS4级左右地震。此方法在少震地区地震的中短期预测中有一定的实用意义。     

中国西部及邻区强震迁移规律与喜马拉雅弧关系研究

在数值模拟的基础上,系统分析研究了中国西部及邻区强震活动的迁移规律,结果表明,印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞作用控制着中国西部强震活动。 喜马拉雅东部弧顶（缅甸弧顶） 、西部弧顶（兴都库什弧顶） 及喜马拉雅弧中段的强震活动与内陆的强震活动存在密切的联系,与内陆强震活跃期、平静期的存在及强震迁移规律都有重要关系。     

Source parameters and scaling relationships in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia (Northeastern Italy) region

We estimated the source parameters of 53 local earthquakes (2.0<M_L<5.7) of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia (Northeastern Italy) area, recorded by the short-period local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), in the period 1995-2003. Data were selected on the basis of high quality locations and focal mechanisms. Standard H/V spectral ratios (HVRS) of the three-component stations of the network were performed in order to assess local amplifications, and only stations showing HVRS not exceeding two were considered for the source parameters estimation. Both velocity and acceleration data were used to compute the SH-wave spectra. Observed spectra were corrected for attenuation effects using an independent regional estimate of the quality factor Q and a station dependent estimate of the spectral decay parameter k. Only earthquakes with M_L>3.0 recorded with a sampling rate of 125 cps were used to compute k, thus allowing to visualize a linear trend of the high frequency acceleration spectrum up to 40-50 Hz. SH-wave spectra, corrected for attenuation, showed an ω⁻² shape allowing a good fit with the Brune model. Seismic moments and Brune radii ranged between 1.5×10¹² and 1.1×10¹⁷  N m and between 0.1 and 2.7 km respectively. We obtained M_o=1.1×10¹⁷  N m for the seismic moment of the Kobarid (SLO) main shock, in good agreement with the Harvard CMT solution (M_o=3.5×10¹⁷  N m). Brune stress drops were confined to the range from 0.07 to 5.31 MPa, with an average value of 0.73 MPa and seem to be approximately constant over five orders of magnitude of seismic moment. Radiated seismic energy computed from two nearby stations scales with seismic moment according to , and apparent stress values are between 0.02 and 4.26 MPa. The observed scatter of Brune stress drop data allowed to hypothesize a scaling relation between seismic moment and corner frequency in order to accommodate both Brune stress drop and apparent stress scalings. No systematic differences are evidenced between stress parameters of earthquakes with different focal mechanisms. As a consequence, a relation of the seismic stress release with the strength of rocks can be hypothesized. A high correlation (r>0.9) of Brune stress drop is found with both apparent stress and RMS stress drop, according to and respectively.     

Time-space variation of volcano-seismic events at La Fossa (Vulcano, Aeolian Islands, Italy): new insights into seismic sources in a hydrothermal system

We investigated the relationship between volcano-seismic events, recorded at La Fossa crater of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) during 2004-2006, and the dynamics of the hydrothermal system. During the period of study, three episodes of increasing numbers of volcano-seismic events took place at the same time as geothermal and geochemical anomalies were observed. These geothermal and geochemical anomalies have been interpreted as resulting from an increasing deep magmatic component of the hydrothermal fluids. Three classes of seismic events (long period, high frequency and monochromatic events), characterised by different spectral content and various similarity of the waveforms, have been recognised. These events, clustered mainly below La Fossa crater area at depths of 0.5–1.1 km b.s.l., were space-distributed according to the classes. Based on their features, we can infer that such events at Vulcano are related to two different source mechanisms: (1) fracturing processes of rocks and (2) resonance of cracks (or conduits) filled with hydrothermal fluid. In the light of these source mechanisms, the increase in the number of events, at the same time as geochemical and geothermal anomalies were observed, was interpreted as the result of an increasing magmatic component of the hydrothermal fluids, implying an increase of their flux. Indeed, such variation caused an increase of both the pore pressure within the rocks of the volcanic system and the amount of ascending fluids. Increased pore pressures gave rise to fracturing processes, while the increased fluid flux favoured resonance and vibration processes in cracks and conduits. Finally, a gradual temporal variation of the waveform of the hybrid events (one of the subclasses of long period events) was observed, likely caused by heating and drying of the hydrothermal system.     

重庆荣昌地震活动特征与深井注水关系探讨

分析1993年以来荣昌及周边地区地震活动与深井注水的关系。对2008年以前注水井位置、注水量与地震活动进行对比,对2008年以后地震进行重新定位,统计地震空间分布,探寻其与深井注水的关系,并对注水量与地震频度进行相关分析。研究认为,深井注水初期对地震活动影响较大,之后有所减小,可见地震活动主要受地质构造控制。     

四川康定龙头沟温泉CO2突降异常与地震活动关系

系统分析康定龙头沟温泉逸出气CO2的百分含量异常与该区域中强地震的对应关系.发现龙头沟温泉CO2的百分含量成组异常（3个月时间内出现多次突降,N≥2次）,在该区域中强地震的中短期预报中比单次异常更为可靠,可以在日常地震分析预报中加以运用.