Preliminary report of the September 5, 2022 MS 6.8 Luding earthquake,Sichuan, China

The 2022 M_S 6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 M_S 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock. The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ～35 mm and ～55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of VIII or above near the ruptured area, consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being M_S 4.5. Aftershock locations (up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.     

Active segment of the 12 November 2003 Mw 5.6 earthquake at Salsipuedes oceanic basin,Gulf of California. Mexico

We analyzed records of eight seismic stations of the autonomous broadband seismograph network of a joint project between Utrecht University (the Netherlands), California Institute of Technology, and Centro de Investigación Científica y de Estudios Superiores de Ensenada (CICESE). These stations recorded the Mw 5.6 earthquake that occurred on 12 November 2003 at Salsipuedes basin in the middle of the Gulf of California 2 km west of the island Angel de la Guarda. This event was located at 29.16º N and 113.37º W, 30 km northeast of Bahia de los Angeles. A foreshock and hundreds of aftershocks were recorded in the 48 hours after its origin time. With the location of 29 earthquakes we identified the active segment, perpendicular to the main transform fault NW–SE of Canal de Ballenas, representing the transtensional boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. The direction of the active fault described is consistent with the normal fault mechanism reported by the National Earthquake Information Center (strike=39º, dip=34º, slip=–44º).From the duration magnitude of 456 aftershocks, we calculated a b-value of 1.14±0.28; furthermore, we calculated a seismic moment of (3.5 ±3.3) X10¹⁷Nm, a source radius of 3.7 ± 2.63 km, and a static stress drop of 3.94 ± 1.15 MPa (39.4 ± 11.5 bar.).     

Properties of the Aftershock Sequences of the 2003 Bingöl, M D = 6.4, (Turkey) Earthquake

Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M _{W =}6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M _D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.     

Source parameters and stress release of seismic sequences occurred in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia

The source parameters of the major events of a swarm and of two seismic sequences, occurred in the Friuli area (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia, were estimated. The Claut swarm (C96) occurred since the end of January to June 1996, with a M_D 4.3 major shock and it appears composed of three sub-sequences. The two sequences are the Kobarid sequence (K98) started on April 12, 1998 with a M_D 5.6 mainshock and the M.te Sernio (S02) sequence caused by the February 14, 2002 earthquake (M_D = 4.9). Acceleration and velocity data recorded by the local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimenale (OGS) and corrected for attenuation, were employed to estimate seismic moments and radiated energies. Source dimensions were inferred from the computed corner frequencies and the stress release was estimated from the Brune stress drop, the apparent stress and the RMS stress drop. On the whole, seismic moments range from 1.7 × 10¹² to 1.1 × 10¹⁷ N m, and radiated energies are in the range 10⁶–10¹³ J. Brune stress drops are scattered and do not show any evidence of a self-similarity breakdown for sources down to 130 m radius. The radiated seismic energy scales as a function of seismic moment, with a slope of the scaling relation that decreases for increasing seismic moments.The mechanism of stress release was analyzed by computing the ɛ parameter of Zuniga [Zuniga, R., 1993. Frictional overshoot and partial stress drop. Which one? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83, 939–944]. The K98 and S02 sequences are characterized by a wide range of the ɛ parameter with stress drop mechanism varying from partial locking to overshoot cases. The ɛ values of the C96 swarm are more homogeneous and close to the Orowan's condition. The radiated seismic energy and the ratio of stress drop between mainshock and aftershocks appear different among the analyzed cases. We therefore investigated the relationship between the stress parameters of the main shock and the energy radiated by the aftershock sequences. For this purpose, we also estimated the source parameters of two other sequences occurred in the area, with mainshocks of M_D 4.1 and 5.1, respectively. We found a positive correlation between the Brune stress drop of the mainshock and the ratio between the radiated energy of the mainshock and the summation of the energies radiated by the aftershocks.     

传染型余震序列模型震后早期参数特征及其地震学意义

研究中国大陆地区中强地震序列震后早期阶段（震后15天）ETAS模型参数的平均统计特征,据此讨论不同统计条件下的序列衰减及余震激发问题.宏观而言,模型参数b、p、α数值分布较为离散,不同统计条件下模型参数平均值的差异显著性不十分突出.详细对比不同统计条件下模型参数平均值的微小差异,b值随主震震级增大而增大,但b值随不同区域、不同主震断层类型或不同序列类型的变化不明显.p、α具有一定的区域特征,西南、西北p值略低于新疆及华北,表明西南、西北序列衰减相对较慢而新疆、华北序列衰减相对较快,华北α较低而西北α相对最高,意味着尽管华北序列衰减相对较快,但其激发高阶余震的能力却相对强,西北尽管序列衰减较慢,但序列结构单一,激发高阶余震的能力弱.p与主震断层类型关系不明显,即主震破裂性质不是决定序列衰减快慢的主要因素;α与主震断层类型有一定关系,走滑-近走滑型破裂所导致序列的α值最小、斜滑型次之、倾滑-近倾滑型最大,表明走滑-近走滑型序列激发高阶余震的能力最强、逆冲型最弱、斜滑型居中.p、α随主震震级增大而减小,意味着主震震级越高则序列衰减越慢、激发高阶余震的能力越强.不同类型序列p、α有一定差异,主余型序列p最小、孤立型p最大,表明相对而言主余型序列衰减最慢、孤立型序列衰减最快、多震型序列衰减速率居中.孤立型序列与主余型序列α大体一致、大于多震型序列的α值,即多震型序列激发高阶余震的能力相对最强,孤立型及主余型序列则相对较弱.     

The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 and its aftershocks sequence

The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 that occurred in the eastern Rif region of Morocco already hit by a large event in May 1994 (Mw 5.9) has been followed by numerous aftershocks in the months following the event. The aftershock sequence has been monitored by a temporary network of 17 autonomous seismic stations during 15 days (28 March–10 April) in addition to 5 permanent stations of the Moroccan seismic network (CNRST, SPG, Rabat). This network allowed locating accurately about 650 aftershocks that are aligned in two directions, about N10-20E and N110-120E, in rough agreement with the two nodal planes of the focal mechanism (Harvard). The aftershock alignments are long enough, about 20 km or more, to correspond both to the main rupture plane. To further constrain the source of the earthquake main shock and aftershocks (mb > 3.5) have been relocated thanks to regional seismic data from Morocco and Spain. While the main shock is located at the intersection of the aftershock clouds, most of the aftershocks are aligned along the N10-20E direction. This direction together with normal sinistral slip implied by the focal mechanism is similar with the direction and mechanisms of active faults in the region, particularly the N10E Trougout oblique normal fault. Indeed, the Al Hoceima region is dominated by an approximate ENE-SSW direction of extension, with oblique normal faults. Three major 10–30 km-long faults, oriented NNE-SSW to NW-SE are particularly clear in the morphology, the Ajdir and Trougout faults, west and east of the Al Hoceima basin, respectively, and the NS Rouadi fault 20 km to the west. These faults show clear evidence of recent vertical displacements during the late Quaternary such as uplifted alluvial terraces along Oued Rihs, offset fan surfaces by the Rouadi fault and also uplifted and tilted abandoned marine terraces on both sides of the Al Hoceima bay.However, the N20E direction is in contrast with seismic sources identified from geodetic inversions, which favour but not exclusively the N110-120E rupture directions, suggesting that the 1994 and 2004 events occurred on conjugate faults. In any event, the recent seismicity is thus concentrated on sinistral N10-20E or N110-120E dextral strike-slip faults, which surface expressions remain hidden below the 3–5 km-thick Rif nappes, as shown by the tomographic images build from the aftershock sequence and the concentration of the seismicity below 3 km. These observations may suggest that strain decoupling between the thrusted cover and the underlying bedrock and highlights the difficulty to determine the source properties of moderate events with blind faults even in the case of good quality recorded data.     

中国大陆中强地震余震序列的部分统计特征

依据1970年以来记录相对完整的294次50级以上地震序列资料,研究中国大陆中强地震余震序列统计特征,探讨序列类型、最大余震震级、强余震活动持续时间等与主震震级及主震断层性质之间的关系.中国大陆孤立型、主余型及多震型地震余震序列分别约占23%、59%及18%.其中走滑型、具有倾滑分量的走滑型、具有走滑分量的倾滑型及逆冲型分别占48%、24%、17%及11%. 余震序列1年内最大余震震级与主震震级正相关,但主震震级较低时相对离散,孤立型序列离散程度较高,主余型及多震型序列线性相关性较好.绝大多数序列最大余震均发生在震后200天内,少数具有晚期强余震的序列主要属主余型序列,孤立型及多震型序列通常没有晚期强余震发生.68%的序列1年内最大余震发生在震后10天内,77%发生在震后30天之内,95%发生在震后120天之内.序列最大余震发生时间及5、6级强余震活动持续时间与序列类型及主震震级大小有关,多震型序列最大余震发生最快,孤立型次之、主余型最长.若仅就主余型序列而言,当主震震级较高时最大余震与主震间时间间隔相对较短,主震震级较低时最大余震与主震间时间间隔相对较长.     

Seismic analyses of a RCC building under mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences

A large mainshock may trigger numerous aftershocks within a short period, and nuclear power plant (NPP) structures have the probability to be exposed to mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences. However, the researchers focused on seismic analyses of reinforced concrete containment (RCC) buildings under only mainshocks. The aim of this paper is to thoroughly investigate the dynamic responses of a RCC building under mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences. For that purpose, 10 as-recorded mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences with two horizontal components are considered in this study, and a typical three-dimensional RCC model subjected to the selected as-recorded seismic sequences is established. Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of mainshocks equal to 0.3 g (safe shutdown earthquake load-SSE load) are considered in this paper. The results indicate that aftershocks have a significant effect on the responses of the RCC in terms of maximum top accelerations, maximum top displacements and accumulated damage. Furthermore, in order to preserve the RCC from large damage under repeated earthquakes, local damage and global damage indices are suggested as limitations under only mainshocks.     

The partitioning of radiated energy and the largest aftershock of seismic sequences occurred in the northeastern Italy and western Slovenia

We analyzed the most relevant seismic sequences that occurred from 1977 to 2007 in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (northeastern Italy) and western Slovenia. The eight aftershock sequences were triggered by low- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes with mainshock duration magnitude ranging from 3.7 to 5.6. The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law varies from 0.8 to 1.1. The modified Omori’s modeling of the sequences evidences values of the p exponent ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. Using the Reasenberg and Jones (Science 243:1173–1176, 1989; Science 265:1251–1252, 1994) approach, we computed the probabilistic estimate of the aftershock rates and the largest aftershock in given time intervals. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock is calculated according to the modified Båth law and using an approach that considers the partitioning of the radiated seismic energy between mainshock and aftershocks. The partitioning of the radiated seismic energy appears to play a significant role in the evolution of the sequences. We define the parameter R _ES as the ratio between the radiated seismic energy of the mainshock and the summation of the seismic energy radiated by the aftershocks. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock, calculated with the parameter R _ES, agrees well with the observed difference. In most sequences, the parameter R _ES decreases very quickly until the occurrence of the largest aftershock and then becomes constant. By analyzing the values of R _ES during the early hours following the mainshock, we found that the R _ES values after 24 h are well related to the final ones, calculated on the whole sequence, and to the differences in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock.     

High-precision relocation of the aftershock sequence of the January 8, 2022, MS6.9 Menyuan earthquake

The 2022 Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, which occurred on January 8, is the most destructive earthquake to occur near the Lenglongling (LLL) fault since the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake. We relocated the mainshock and aftershocks with phase arrival time observations for three days after the mainshock from the Qinghai Seismic Network using the double-difference method. The total length and width of the aftershock sequence are approximately 32 km and 5 km, respectively, and the aftershocks are mainly concentrated at a depth of 7–12 km. The relocated sequence can be divided into 18 km west and 13 km east segments with a boundary approximately 5 km east of the mainshock, where aftershocks are sparse. The east and west fault structures revealed by aftershock locations differ significantly. The west fault strikes EW and inclines to the south at a 71º–90º angle, whereas the east fault strikes 133º and has a smaller dip angle. Elastic strain accumulates at conjunctions of faults with different slip rates where it is prone to large earthquakes. Based on surface traces of faults, the distribution of relocated earthquake sequence and surface ruptures, the mainshock was determined to have occurred at the conjunction of the Tuolaishan (TLS) fault and LLL fault, and the west and east segments of the aftershock sequence were on the TLS fault and LLL fault, respectively. Aftershocks migrate in the early and late stages of the earthquake sequence. In the first 1.5 h after the mainshock, aftershocks expand westward from the mainshock. In the late stage, seismicity on the northeast side of the east fault is higher than that in other regions. The migration rate of the west segment of the aftershock sequence is approximately 4.5 km/decade and the afterslip may exist in the source region.     

Gorkha earthquake (MW7.8) and aftershock sequence: A fractal approach

On April 25, 2015, Nepal was struck by the M_W7.8 Gorkha earthquake followed by an intense aftershock sequence. It was one of the most destructive earthquakes in the Himalayan arc, causing more than 8900 fatalities. In this study, we analyzed the dataset (429 events, magnitude of completeness (M_c) ≥ 4.2 local magnitude) of the first 45 days after the Gorkha earthquake to estimate the seismicity parameters b-value, D-value, and p-value. We used the maximum likelihood method to estimate the b-value and Omori-Utsu parameters, whereas the correlation integral method was applied to estimate the fractal dimension (D-value). The analysis was carried out using running and sliding window techniques. The lowest b-value (0.57 ± 0.04) and the highest D-value (1.65 ± 0.02) were computed at the time of the Gorkha earthquake, after which the b-value significantly increased to a maximum of 1.57. It again dropped to 0.93 at the time of the major aftershock on May 12, 2015. The D-value showed an initial quick drop and then decreased in a wavy pattern until the end of the study period, indicating the clustering and scattering of earthquakes in a fault region. The b-value contour map identified the eastern part of the study area as a high stress region (b = ～0.8), implying that the stress shifted to that region. The D-value contour map reveals that the seismogenic structure shifted from linear to planar in the region. The rate of aftershock decay (p = 0.86 ± 0.04) for a short period reflects that the level of stress decreased rapidly. This study helps to understand the level of stress and seismicity pattern of a region, which could be useful for aftershock studies.     

Dynamics of fault growth — A physical basis for aftershock sequences

The scale invariant inclusion theory of failure is applied to the problem of aftershock sequences. In the inclusion theory, a macrocrack, or void of low aspect ratio, the length of which depends upon the magnitude of the impending mainshock, forms within the inclusion zone of the impending earthquake. The fault zone that precedes the inclusion zone represents that part of the macrocrack that has closed. It is shown that bifurcation (branching) of the macrocrack and its associated fault must occur within the focal region of the inclusion during the growth phase of the earthquake. The bifurcation process produces extensive faulting of the material that comprises the focal region.A prediction of the inclusion theory is that each fault within the focal region will terminate within a zone of concentrated dilatancy that may or may not be in an unstable state. When the zone is unstable, an aftershock will occur. It is shown that these inclusion zones will, on the average, occur near the boundaries of the focal region. Failure of these unstable zones leads to additional failures within the interior portions of the focal region. These failures represent lock point failures along the fault(s) and will, in general, exhibit few or no additional aftershocks.The bifurcation model of aftershock sequences leads to five results: (1) The aftershock sequence will exhibit an inverse hyperbolic time decay law when the stresses that are applied at distances far removed from the hypocenter remain constant during the sequence and when there isno interaction between the brittle lithosphere (where aftershocks occur) and the underlying asthenosphere. (2) The mean magnitude of any group of aftershocks within the sequence will be approximately constant in time. (3) The aftershocks will, in general, have focal mechanisms identical to that of the mainshock. (4) Large seismic events that occur throughout the aftershock zone will be independent of one another when the aftershocks are sufficiently far apart (two-three fault lengths) and when the applied tectonic stresses remain constant during the sequence. (5) The bifurcation model predicts that theb-value of the aftershock sequence will be 1.0 when both the Utsu relationship between aftershock area and mainshock magnitude and the Gutenburg Richter frequency-magnitude relationship are satisfied.     

Imposex levels and concentrations of organotin compounds (TBT and its metabolites) in Nassarius nitidus from the Lagoon of Venice

Specimens of Nassarius nitidus were collected in seven stations of the Venice Lagoon to assess the levels of tributyltin (TBT) and its metabolites monobutyltin and dibutyltin in the tissues and monitor their effect on organisms, in particular the phenomenon of imposex (superimposition of male sexual characteristics on females). The following values of population indices were found: vas deferens sequence: 1.2 ± 0.7–4.0 ± 0.5; relative penis length: 6–47%. The least impacted station was situated in the northern part of the Lagoon, where females without imposex were found and Butyltin (BuTs) concentrations in the organisms (average sum of BuTs = 43 ± 14 ng Sn g⁻¹ w.) were significantly lower than in the other stations (range of average sum of BuTs: 101 ± 22–217 ± 27 ng Sn g⁻¹ d.w.). Population indices were found to be related to the TBT content in the tissues. In particular VDSI had a significant logarithmic correlation: r = 0.95, n = 8, p < 0.05.     

Constraining the long-term evolution of the slip rate for a major extensional fault system in the central Aegean,Greece, using thermochronology

The brittle/ductile transition is a major rheologic boundary in the crust yet little is known about how or if rates of tectonic processes are influenced by this boundary. In this study we examine the slip history of the large-scale Naxos/Paros extensional fault system (NPEFS), Cyclades, Greece, by comparing published slip rates for the ductile crust with new thermochronological constraints on slip rates in the brittle regime. Based on apatite and zircon fission-track (AFT and ZFT) and (U–Th)/He dating we observe variable slip rates across the brittle/ductile transition on Naxos. ZFT and AFT ages range from 11.8 ± 0.8 to 9.7 ± 0.8 Ma and 11.2 ± 1.6 to 8.2 ± 1.2 Ma and (U–Th)/He zircon and apatite ages are between 10.4 ± 0.4 to 9.2 ± 0.3 Ma and 10.7 ± 1.0 to 8.9 ± 0.6 Ma, respectively. On Paros, ZFT and AFT ages range from 13.1 ± 1.4 Ma to 11.1 ± 1.0 Ma and 12.7 ± 2.8 Ma to 10.5 ± 2.0 Ma while the (U–Th)/He zircon ages are slightly younger between 8.3 ± 0.4 Ma and 9.8 ± 0.3 Ma. All ages consistently decrease northwards in the direction of hanging wall transport. Most of our new thermochronological results and associated thermal modeling more strongly support the scenario of an identical fault dip and a constant or slightly accelerating slip rate of ∼ 6–8 km Myr^− 1 on the NPEFS across the brittle/ductile transition. Even the intrusion of a large granodiorite body into the narrowing fault zone at ∼ 12 Ma on Naxos does not seem to have affected the thermal structure of the area in a way that would significantly disturb the slip rate. The data also show that the NPEFS accomplished a minimum total offset of ∼ 50 km between ∼ 16 and 8 Ma.     

Relocation of aftershocks of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake: A new insight into seismotectonics of the Kachchh seismic zone,Gujarat, India

In view of an anomalous crust–mantle structure beneath the 2001 Bhuj earthquake region, double-difference relocations of 1402 aftershocks of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake were determined, using an improved 1D velocity model constructed from 3D velocity tomograms based on data from 10 to 58 three-component seismograph stations. This clearly delineated four major tectonic features: (i) south-dipping north Wagad fault (NWF), (ii and iii) south-dipping south Wagad faults 1 and 2 (SWF₁, SWF₂), and (iv) a northeast dipping transverse fault (ITF), which is a new find. The relocated aftershocks correlate satisfactorily with the geologically mapped and inferred faults in the epicentral region. The relocated focal depths delineate a marked variation to the tune of 12 km in the brittle–ductile transition depths beneath the central aftershock zone that could be attributed to a lateral variation in crustal composition (more or less mafic) or in the level of fracturing across the fault zone. A fault intersection between the NWF and ITF has been clearly mapped in the 10–20 km depth range beneath the central aftershock zone. It is inferred that large intraplate stresses associated with the fault intersection, deepening of the brittle–ductile transition to a depth of 34 km due to the presence of mafic/ultramafic material in the crust–mantle transition zone, and the presence of aqueous fluids (released during the metamorphic process of eclogitisation of lower crustal olivine-rich rocks) and volatile CO₂ at the hypocentral depths, might have resulted in generating the 2001 Bhuj earthquake sequence covering the entire lower crust.     

Bayesian estimation of the Modified Omori Law parameters for the Iranian Plateau

The forecasting of large aftershocks is a preliminary and critical step in seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk management. From a statistical point of view, it relies entirely on the estimation of the properties of aftershock sequences using a set of laws with well-defined parameters. Since the frequentist and Bayesian approaches are common tools to assess these parameter values, we compare the two approaches for the Modified Omori Law and a selection of mainshock–aftershock sequences in the Iranian Plateau. There is a general agreement between the two methods, but the Bayesian appears to be more efficient as the number of recorded aftershocks decreases. Taking into account temporal variations of the b-value, the slope of the frequency-size distribution, the probability for the occurrence of strong aftershock, or larger main shock has been calculated in a finite time window using the parameters of the Modified Omori Law observed in the Iranian Plateau.     

Data replenishment of five moderate earthquake sequences in Japan,with semi-automatic cluster selection

Missing early aftershocks following relatively large or moderate earthquakes can cause significant bias in the analysis of seismic catalogs. In this paper, we systematically address the aftershock missing problem for five earthquake sequences associated with moderate-size events that occurred inland Japan, by using a stochastic replenishing method. The method is based on the notion that if a point process (e.g., earthquake sequence) with time-independent marks (e.g., magnitudes) is completely observed, it can be transformed into a homogeneous Poisson process by a bi-scale empirical transformation. We use the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) earthquake catalog to select the aftershock data and replenish the missing early events using the later complete part of each aftershock sequence. The time windows for each sequence span from 6 months before the mainshock to three months after. The semi-automatic spatial selection uses a clustering method for the epicentral selection of earthquakes. The results obtained for the original JMA catalog and replenished datasets are compared to get insight into the biases that the missing early aftershocks may cause on the Omori-Utsu law parameters’ estimation, characterizing the aftershock decay with time from the mainshock. We have also compared the Omori-Utsu law parameter estimates for two datasets following the same mainshock; the first dataset is the replenished sequence, while the second dataset has been obtained by waveform-based analysis to detect early aftershocks that are not recorded in the JMA catalog. Our results demonstrate that the Omori-Utsu law parameters estimated for the replenished datasets are robust with respect to the threshold magnitude used for the analyzed datasets. Even when using aftershock time windows as short as three days, the replenished datasets provide stable Omori-Utsu law parameter estimations. The p-values for all the analyzed sequences are about 1.1 and c-values are significantly smaller compared to those of original datasets. Our findings prove that the replenishment method is a fast, reliable approach to address the missing aftershock problem.     

Mercury levels in selected bycatch fish species from industrial shrimp-trawl fishery in the SE Gulf of California

Baseline Hg concentration in bycatch fish from the SE Gulf of California were determined in muscle and liver of 19 species. Levels of Hg in muscle were compared with legal limits of this element in national and international legislation. Considering all fish species, mean concentrations in liver (2.458 ± 1.997 μg g⁻¹) were significantly higher (p < 0.05) than in muscle (0.993 ± 0.670 μg g⁻¹). The sequence of averaged Hg concentrations in most ichthyofauna was liver > muscle. Highest level of Hg in muscle (2.556 μg g⁻¹) and liver (7.515 μg g⁻¹) corresponded to Diapterus peruvianus and Ophioscion strabo, respectively. Considering muscle samples, none of the species had levels of Hg above the limit (1.0 μg g⁻¹ wet weight) in the Mexican legislation; with respect to the Japanese (0.4 μg g⁻¹ wet weight) and British (0.3 μg g⁻¹ wet weight) legislations, 26.3% and 31.6% of the species respectively, were above the corresponding limits.     

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence, Baja California, Mexico and Southernmost California, USA: Active Seismotectonics along the Mexican Pacific Margin

The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M?>?2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24?h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north?Csouth trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M _w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15?s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120?km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US?CMexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50?km long, as well as a 10?km north?Csouth aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific?CNorth America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San Andreas fault system to the north. We propose that the location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, as well as the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, may have been controlled by the bends in the plate boundary.     

40Ar/39Ar temporal framework for the Alleret maar lacustrine sequence (French Massif-Central): Volcanological and paleoclimatic implications

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France) is part of the few Western European early middle Pleistocene lacustrine sequences. In the AL3 core several new ash layers were recovered in the 10 first meters of the sedimentary filling. We obtained three ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, which range from 683 ± 5 ka (MSWD: 1.2, n = 17) to 722 ± 6 ka (MSWD: 3.2, n = 18). All the studied ash layers belong to the Super-Besse eruptive cycle of the Sancy volcano. Based on the chronostratigraphy that we have derived we estimate that the age of the main eruption could correspond to the Sancy volcano caldera formation at 725 ka close to the end of MIS 18 and that the Super-Besse explosive episode duration lasted only about 40 ka. The time framework we build evidences that the Alleret lacustrine sequence represents a time interval of probably 180 ka spanning from MIS 18 to MIS 14. This sequence offers the first well constrained comparison between terrestrial environmental history and that preserved in marine sediments during the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution.